Saturday, January 23, 2016

Where I Stand on the Current GOP Candidates

Going by reverse polling average.

11. RICK SANTORUM - An absolute joke. If he comes in the top five in Iowa, I automatically vote for the national GOP to kick Iowa further down the schedule.

10. MIKE HUCKABEE - An absolute joke. If he comes in the top five in Iowa, I automatically vote for the national GOP to kick Iowa further down the schedule. Period.

9. CARLY FIORINA - If you've never held political office, then you really need to have a good bio, and unfortunately her bio is too easy to dismantle, since it mostly hinges on Hewlett-Packard. She'll be a good regular talking-head on cable news.

8. RAND PAUL - It's always good to have some libertarianism in there somewhere, but it's time for him to focus on keeping his Senate seat instead.

7. JOHN KASICH - I like Kasich. I think he's been a good Republican for decades. I don't agree with everything he's done, but he has the best track record and the most experience. I could support him and not hold my nose doing so. He's just not my top guy.

6. CHRIS CHRISTIE - If it came down to Trump, Cruz, and Christie, I'd head the Utah Chapter of Christie 2016, if it hasn't already been organized. I don't get why he's not taking Trump and Cruz head-on more.

5. BEN CARSON - His campaign is like a slowly deflating balloon. It's just clear to me he's a very smart man but shouldn't be president. Nothing wrong with that. I'm a smart guy. I should not be president.

4. JEB BUSH - I used to like Bush. I used to think he'd be a good president. I used to think if he had any other last name, he'd be a good candidate for the Republicans to put forth. But I despise what he and his Super-PAC are doing. They are spending millions and millions and millions of dollars running negative ads against... Christie. And against Kasich. And more than anyone else, against his old pal Rubio.

Why are they trying to destroy Rubio, and now turning their attention to Christie and Kasich? Months ago there was a story how Mike Murphy, head of the Jeb super-PAC Right2Rise, came up with a strategy. Destroy every candidate other than Trump, to force it to a two-man race between Trump and Bush. We're seeing now that the story is true.

New reports show that Marco Rubio has had more attack ads run against him in Iowa than any other candidate. Why is the guy in third place in Iowa, third place nationally, taking all of the hits? Because of Jeb(!). The vast majority of money spent on ads in Iowa is from Jeb(!). And since he's sliding further and further toward the edge of the stage, he somehow thinks Rubio is the one he needs to eliminate the most. Has it helped Jeb at all? Three months the RCP average for him in Iowa was 6.3% Now? it's 4.5%. Three months ago Rubio was 9.3% Now? he's at 11.4%. And he and Carson and Cruz and Trump all remain above Jeb.

Jeb had the money to take out the #1 guy. If he really wanted the job, he should have used all that money on Trump. But he didn't. He backed down in debates against him, and his attack dogs are going after other guys not in first place. Now he needs to realize he is not the candidate for the Republican Party in 2016 and shift the money elsewhere for the good of the country.

3. MARCO RUBIO - He's been my top guy. I haven't liked his increased emphasis on fear, i.e. expand the powers of the NSA and doubling down on the Patriot Act. I like that he's come out in favor of Congressional term limits, and I like most elements of his tax plan. I think he'd be the perfect contrast to Hillary Clinton. She's about the past; he's about the future.

2. TED CRUZ - There's a reason he's the only senator running for president who has yet to be endorsed by another senator. Just about everyone who's worked with him does not like him. I think that matters. He rubs so many people wrong that even his alleged allies, fellow Republicans, are not going to go along with anything he does that they don't like. Over the decades, Senators and Representatives of the party in power in the White House have signed on to things they might not like, but they wnt to support their party, support their president. Cruz would inspire no such loyalty from Republicans, and forget any Democrat compromising with him. I think his televangelist style just comes across as too phony. I would like Cruz to be likeable, but he's not.

1. DONALD TRUMP - The last time I took the ISideWith quiz, the only Republican candidate I agreed with less than Trump was Santorum. Donald Trump is an entertaining guy, he's an off-the-cuff guy, he's a confident strongman. But he can change his mind on a whim. In fact I was watching Jessica Jones on Netflix, and Kilgrave (David Tennant) had this line that instantly jumped out to me as Trump's philosophy. "I'm a man of my word, unless I change my mind." Trump likes to win. If he wins, once he won, what would he really do? No one knows. And with all of his disparaging remarks against Mexicans, women, take your pick, he'd destroy the Republican party.

So this would be my voting preference:

1. Rubio
2. Kasich
3. Brokered convention for Romney
4. Paul
5. Fiorina
6. Christie
7. Carson
8. 3rd party
9. Oh, Bloomberg's running? 4th party.
10. Bush
11. Trump/Cruz/Clinton/Sanders/O'Malley/Huckabee/Santorum