J.E.R.P.S.

Scott Jenkins wants troops to pay taxes

2012-02-16T18:23:00.001-08:00

Sarah Palin and Political Language

2012-02-12T15:18:00.001-08:00

Listened to a few minutes of Sarah Palin giving pat, red-meat answers on Fox News Sunday, then I happened upon this quote:

"Political language—and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists—is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind." - George Orwell

Romney & Gingrich "Who's On First"

2012-02-07T14:41:00.001-08:00

Rape in prison at all-time high

2012-02-05T08:23:00.000-08:00

Christopher Glazek argues that we've given up too much liberty of the few to preserve the safety of the many. Some money quotes:

"From 1980 to 2007, the number of prisoners held in the United States quadrupled to 2.3 million, with an additional 5 million on probation or parole. What Ayn Rand once called the "freest, noblest country in the history of the world" is now the most incarcerated, and the second-most incarcerated country in history, just barely edged out by Stalin’s Soviet Union...

"In January, prodded in part by outrage over a series of articles in the New York Review of Books, the Justice Department finally released an estimate of the prevalence of sexual abuse in penitentiaries. The reliance on filed complaints appeared to understate the problem. For 2008, for example, the government had previously tallied 935 confirmed instances of sexual abuse. After asking around, and performing some calculations, the Justice Department came up with a new number: 216,000. That’s 216,000 victims, not instances. These victims are often assaulted multiple times over the course of the year. The Justice Department now seems to be saying that prison rape accounted for the majority of all rapes committed in the US in 2008, likely making the United States the first country in the history of the world to count more rapes for men than for women."

Nevada Caucus Day

2012-02-04T07:12:00.001-08:00

We know Mitt Romney is going to win Nevada; it is only a question of "by how much?"I actually wish we had another debate in the next week or so. I have loved them. Even if some of the questions are silly, or distracting, or "gotcha" in manner, when the candidates are right there next to each other, we can see who can think on theirfeet and who can't. When they try to wiggle out of answering a question, it's obvious.The debates expose or enhance a profile. Rick Perry was #1 in the polls until he did a couple debates and people got to hear his answers on issues. Newt Gingrich came across quite well in several of them, but when he became the front-runner and came under more fire, well, the old Newt came out. The petulant, angry, grandiose Newt that was pushed out of office in bipartisan fashion.But without debates, what do we have? Tightly controlled town halls and negative ads. Next!

Mitt crushes Newt in Florida

2012-01-31T16:45:00.000-08:00

With 49% of the votes counted in Florida, Mitt Romney has 48% of the vote, Newt Gingrich has 31%, Rick Santorum has 13%, and Ron Paul has 7%.

It has to be sweet for Mitt to win by a wider margin over newt than Gingrich did in South Carolina.

Isn't Florida the oldest state in the nation? I thought the Ron Paul rEVOLution would do better there. Then again, his biggest constituents are people under 30.

Florida CNN Republican Debate

2012-01-27T00:12:00.000-08:00

8:00 - The opening intros feel like they could be the opening credits for the next X-Men movie.

8:04 - A local choir sings the National Anthem. Mitt & Rick sing along. Newt looks around confused. Ron looks like he's sucking on a cough drop.

8:07 - Wolf Blitzer feels the need to remind candidates how to introduce themselves. Rick starts, points out his 93-year-old mother's in attendance. She stands to applause. Rick wisely decides to just end on that note.

8:08 - Newt is thrilled to be in Jacksonville, site of the "next new nuclear aircraft carrier battle group." Mitt points out he has 16 grandkids. Ron introduces himself as a champion of the gold standard and rejects the notion of nation building.

QUESTION FROM AUDIENCE: Illegal immigration.

8:09 - Rick says we need to obey the laws in this country, says his grandpa was an immigrant. He has this way of looking like his teeth are clenched when he speaks, but his tone sounds sincere. "Immigrants bring a vitality and a love of this country."

8:11 - Newt says he's pledged to control the border by January 2014. Wants citizenship to be easier, but deportation easier too. Rick & Newt support Mitt's option of "self-deportation." Newt points out he wouldn't deport grandmothers and grandfathers here, proposes a panel to determine if they can at least have residency.

8:12 - Mitt: I don't think anyone's interested in deporting 11 million Americans, excuse me, 11 million illegal immigrants. We have a responsibility to those millions waiting to become legal citizens.

8:14 - Ron: the weaker the economy, the more resentment against illegal immigrants. The way we're handling our borders is hurting our economy. We worry too much about the obrder of Afghanistan and Pakistan; we should worry more about our own.

8:16 - Wolf asks Newt about his comment that Mitt was "anit-immigrant." Newt says "you need to be realistic in your indignation." Yes, Newt said that about someone else. Would make some exceptions for some humanity. Wolf asks if he still views Mitt as anti-immigrant. "Of the four of us, yes."

8:17 - Mitt launches into the most awesome take-down of any debate that's ever been televised. He calls Newt's comment "inexcusable." "My father was born in Mexico." Says the idea is repulsive, goes off on Newt's "over the top rhetoric", says he should apologize for it. Thunderous applause from audience.

8:19 - Newt says what would you call it when you want to deport a grandmother? Mitt says he's pro-immigrant, he wants immigrants to come who have vitality and something to contribute, and to indicate that someone willing to follow the law is anti-immigrant is wrong. Newt goes on to categorize Mitt's heartless view toward grandmothers. Mitt counters "our problem is not 11 million grandmothers." ((Laughs from crowd.))

8:20 - Wolf asks about a Romney ad that says Gingrich called Spanish "the language of the ghetto." Mitt says he hasn't seen the ad; is it true Newt said it? Newt said no, he didn't say Spanish, he meant any language from the ghetto and that Dade Community College has 94 languages on its campus. ((I've seen the full quote. He didn't say the word "Spanish" but that's definitely what he meant. And on Twitter, someone pointed out Newt said Dade had 86 languages on campus last week.))

8:21 - Mitt says he doubts it's his ad, but he'll look, but he gives his stance on English as official language, says he and Newt agree on English immersion.

QUESTION FROM HISPANIC LEADERSHIP COUNCILWOMAN: Trade policy with Latin America?

8:22 - Ron: Free trade is the answer, including Cuba. Handful of claps, one "Woo!"

8:24 - Rick: I'm not with Ron Paul or Barack Obama on this. The US govt let down Honduras, Obama sided with Chavez and Castro against the people of Honduras. We didn't stand up for Colombia. Obama sides with the leftist, terrorists, Jihadits, etc. (I'm struck by the notion that I never would've predicted Rick Santorum would've made the final four.)

8:25 - Ron: You're talking about force, we can't be bullies to the world.

8:26 - Rick: I don't know what you're responding to, it wasn't my answer. I'm not talking about force in dealing with military socialists, narco-terrorists.

8:27 - Wolf says we just double-checked and the radio ad has you at the end saying "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message." Mitt: Okay, did he say it? Newt: I said in general. Period. Mitt: We'll see.

8:29 - Wolf shifts it to the foreclosure crisis in the country. Mitt uses the opportunity to criticize Newt's $1.6 million he pocketed from Freddie Mac. Newt rolls up his sleeves and say he was shocked - SHOCKED! - to find out Mitt owns shares in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and he owns shares of Goldman Sachs, who is foreclosing homes in Florida, so maybe Mitt should disclose how much money he's made off of home foreclosures. Crowd responses with some boos and some applause.

8:30 - Mitt says "I know something you don't. I'm not left-handed either." First of all, his finances are handled by a blind trust so he can't have conflicts of interest. Second, he doesn't own any stocks, he owns bonds and mutual funds. "But, Mr. Speaker, have you checked your own investments?" And the suspense is palpable for that two-second pause before Romney drops the bombshell. Newt also owns mutual funds that invest in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

I notice here that Newt Gingrich uses the high-school / college debate-team style of looking at your judges / audience when attacking your opponent. Mitt Romney looks you in the eye.

Mitt keeps going, piles on further about Newt's $1.6 million.

8:34 - Newt looks uncomfortable in his defensive response.

8:35 - Ron Paul - "That subject really doesn't interest me a whole lot." Loud applause!

8:36 - Rick S: "Can we just concede that Newt was a member of Congress and Mitt's a rich guy and move on?" Loud applause!

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8:39 - Wolf comes back with a quote that Newt said about Mitt, and Newt says it's a silly question, let's talk about real issues. Wolf Blitzer sticks with it, gets booed, Mitt says "Hey, I'm standing right here, say it to my face." Newt says okay, rattles off his critique of Mitt's Swiss bank account, Mitt comes back explaining it in more detail, says Republicans really shouldn't attack people for being successful.

8:42 - Wolf brings it back to taxes. Newt wants a flat-tax, wants to shrink the government to match revenue, not raise revenue to catch up to government. Rick says he wants the 28% tax rate Reagan had (*cough!* for one year *cough!*) but thinks the ultra-rich should still pay some taxes. Ron Paul says get rid of the 16th amendment, cut taxes, restore sound monetary policy. So bottom line, they all want Romney to pay less taxes.

8:48 - Wolf now asks Ron Paul about his age. Ron Paul has sweetheart response about challenging any candidate to a 25-mile bike ride through Texas. Also jokes about age discrimination laws. Wolf has a chilling aside of "I look forward to seeing those medical records."

8:50 - The moon! The moon comes up!

8:57 - Phew, losing steam watching this. Mitt, Rick, Ron all pokes holes in Newt's claim he'll have a moon base by 2020. With this economy and the spending they all plan to cut, how could Newt push for a lunar base?

8:58 - Mitt slams Newt's style of promising projects for whatever state he's campaigning in, which gets big cheers. Newt says we can set priorities with spending and get things done, touts his balancing the budget four years in a row. Ron Paul points out the national debt went up a trillion in those four years.

9:00 - Rick laments how Obama won't get our fiscal house in order. We need to quit promising projects and special spending when we had a $1.2 trillion budget deficit last year.

QUESTION FROM AN UNEMPLOYED WOMAN WEARING A FUR COAT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS MADE FROM THE MUPPETS' RALPH THE DOG - Health care.

9:02 - Ron Paul: Medical care insurance should be individual, not tied to your job. When govt gets involved, costs go up. Govt has inflated cost of health care.

9:03 - Newt: repeal Obamacare, repeal Dodd-Frank, repeal Sarbanes-Oxley. Reform insurance system, grow economy.

9:04 - Mitt talks about how Obama's promised a lot of things but he'll actually do them.

9:07 - Rick S says that all sounds great, but Mitt created RomneyCare, predecessor for ObamaCare, and Newt was for individual mandate. Newt defends it at the state level. Mitt stands by RomneyCare, says it's flawed but it has a lot of benefits. Rick S passionately protests any version of individual mandate at federal or state level. Mitt calmly responds by explaining it in more detail. Rick S slams it more.

9:10 - Mitt: "It's not worth getting angry about." Lead balloon in this room. Mitt goes on to explain how his plan is different than Obama's. Rick: "What he said is factually incorrect!"

9:13 - Wolf asks Ron Paul who's right. "I think they're all wrong."

QUESTION FROM SPOUSE OF MARINE - Which Hispanic leaders would you consider in your Cabinet?

Rick: Marco Rubio.

Newt: Susanna Martinez, Rubio.

Mitt: Sandoval, Martinez, Diaz, Mel Martinez, Rubio, Gutierrez....

Ron: I won't name names, but Hispanics are attune to non-intervention foreign policy.

9:17 - Before going to break, Wolf says his next QUESTION will be about why your wife would make a great First Lady. And Newt has the break to sweat.

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9:23 - Ron: We've been married 54 years, author of a cookbook.

9:24 - Mitt: We've been married 42 years, she survived MS and breast cancer.

9:25 - Newt: These 3 women would make great First Ladies. (He's referring to the other candidates wives, not his 3 wives.) But Callista would bring music appreciation and patriotism.

9:26 - Rick's wife was not in attendance, but he gave a heartfelt tribute to her.

9:28 - Back and forth with Newt & Mitt about the mantle of Reagan. Yawwwwn.

QUESTION FROM CUBAN IMMIGRANT - How should US handle Cuba?

9:32 - Rick: Obama's encouraged the cancer in Cuba and it's spread to Venezuela. We're rewarding this thuggery, this Marxism, these jihadists in central and south America.

9:34 - Ron: Sanctions help Castro, don't hurt him. Sanctions help the dictators. The Cold War is over. I don't think people see jihadists under the bed at night.

9:36 - Mitt: Obama's ignored Latin America. Also mistake to give in to Putin or Castro or Chavez or Achmadinejad with what they want. Dictators look for weakness. Newt: We need to help Cuba move to freedom once Castro dies.

QUESTION FROM PALESTINIAN REPUBLICAN - How will you help bring peace between Israel and Palestine?

9:38 - Mitt and Newt respond with pro-Israel views, and the questioner looks like the loneliest man in the room.

QUESTION FROM PUERTO RICAN WOMAN - Where do you stand on Puerto Rico becoming a state?

9:42 - Rick: Me and the governor of Puerto Rico used to go to church together. Puerto Rico has high unemployment and we need to help them. I take no stand on them becoming a state; it's up to them.

QUESTION FROM ATTORNEY - How would your religious beliefs impact your decisions as president?

9:45 - Ron: My religious beliefs affect my character and the way I live.

9:46 - Mitt: The Creator endowed us with unalienable rights, including life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

9:47 - Newt: If you're "truly faithful" it should affect your life. Then slams anti-Christian bias of secular media and religious oppression of the state.

9:48 - Rick: The Constitution is the How of America, the Declaration of the Independence is the Why of America. We have God-given rights. If rights come from the state, then everything the govt gives you, they can take away.

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QUESTION FROM WOLF - Tell us why you are the one person on this stage to most likely beat Pres. Obama.

9:53 - Ron: My appeal to freedom and the Constitution crosses party lines. I do well against Obama in national polls.

9:54 - Mitt: To change DC dramatically, you need someone from the outside. Pretty much gives a mini stump speech.

9:55 - Newt: I was there in 1994 and now I'm running for my two grandkids.

9:56 - Rick: I was against govt bailouts, both bought into cap-and-trade, both bought into global warming hoax.

Some great entertaining clashes in there. Other dull spots, and I'd attribute that to the questions. Seriously, we've had several debates, and look at the selection of questions. So how'd they do?

NEWT GINGRICH - His big selling point was he could out-debate Obama. Well, he wilted tonight. Romney disemboweled him early and he never recovered. Even the First Lady question, Mitt was able to point out his wife had MS and cancer. The unspoken point was to Gingrich, who left wife #1 when she got cancer, and left wife #2 when she got MS. Newt lost. He'll lose in Florida, and he'll shrivel up.

RON PAUL - I don't think he'll win any states, but he'll get a percentage in every state. He was good tonight. I think his response on his age was great.

MITT ROMNEY - He tore Newt Gingrich apart. Had the debate ended at the half-hour mark, I'd say he was going to coast to the nomination now. He had a couple flounders in there, like backing away from an ad that was actually his, but he rolled with the punches and found ways to flip them back on his opponents.

RICK SANTORUM - One of his best debate performances. His earnestness had an "I'll fight for the little guy" populism to it, especially when talking about manufacturing, or the clear love he has for his wife. I think the anti-Romneys will wake up from their Newt stupor and some will shift back to Rick Santorum.

Does Character Count?

2012-01-19T20:18:00.001-08:00

When Mitt's wife was diagnosed with MS, he said "In sickness and in health." When Newt's wife was diagnosed with MS, he said, "If you won't consent to an open marriage, I'll just take what's behind Door #3."

Fox News South Carolina GOP Debate

2012-01-16T22:08:00.000-08:00

Yep, another one.

Questioners are Bret Baier, Gerald Seib, Kelly Evans and Juan Williams.

First question to NEWT GINGRICH, and Bret Baier didn't let him off lightly. Newt justifies his attacks on Mitt Romney so soon after he said the Republicans should stay positive and not savage each other. Of course, Newt said this when he was in first, but now that he's not, it's Earth-scorching time. Baier pushes Newt on it, and Newt keeps trying to say he's not attacking capitalism, it's just that Bain was evil. Reagan.

MITT ROMNEY responds, defends his record, and ends with how he'll defeat Barack Obama, which gets loud cheers from the audience. Baier moves on.

RICK PERRY is asked to defend his comment on "vulture capitalism." He says he visited a steel mill that Bain picked over and people lost jobs. Hey, I released my tax records. Mitt, you need to release yours. I think that's fair. As Republicans we cannot "fawr" our candidate in September. We need to know the answers now. Anyway, repeal Dodd-Frank; regulations are strangling us.

ROMNEY - We invested in that steel mill for 7-8 years.. China's dumping of cheap steel into our economy caused 40 mills to be closed. I will crack down on trade cheaters. BTW, we opened a new steel mill with new technologies on cheaters. I agree with him on regulations.

Next is Gerald Seib, who looks like the kind of guy found guilty of murder at the end of a CSI: Miami episode. He points out one instance where Bain made millions off a company that went bankrupt.

ROMNEY - That company was still open when I was at Bain. They bought another paper company down the road and consolidated. Every time we invest it, we try to grow the company, create jobs. You look at Staples and other companies, my record's pretty darn good. The prez has no job plan. I have a jobs plan and I'm not even president...yet.

Next is Kelly Evans, a hot brunette Wall Street Journal reporter. Asks Ron Paul about negative campaigning.

RON PAUL - If you're exposing a voting record, it's quite proper. I did one on Santorum where I couldn't get everything in that I wanted. He was for NCLB, Sarb-Ox, prescription drug benefits, etc.

RICK SANTORUM - He's getting some of his quotes from CREW, a left-wing George Soros organization. I'd repeal No Child Left Behind now.

Juan Williams asks Santorum about personal attacks.

SANTORUM - I've run a strong positive campaign. Romney's Super-PAC put out an ad saying I support felons voting. I would ask Romney right here, does he support felons who've served their time, fulfill their sentences get to be able to vote?

ROMNEY - First of all I can't tell Super-PACs what--

SANTORUM - Just answer the question.

ROMNEY - I'll get there. I would hope Super-PACs who have anything inaccurate would remove those or correct those. As for felons voting, it says you did that?

SANTORUM - Just answer. I voted to restore voting rights to felons who've repaid their debt to society. This is MLK Day. I was supporting that becuz of the disproportionate amount of African-Americans who go to jail and lose their rights.

ROMNEY - I don't believe violent criminals should ever regain their vote.

SANTORUM - Interesting. In Massachusetts, the law was that not only could violent criminals could vote while on parole let alone after they served their time. If you're going to have someone criticize me for supporting that, why didn't you change that in Mass?

ROMNEY - I had an 85% Democratic legislature. I could nto get many changes that I wanted to, and I did not send anyone to criticize you, I have no control over Super-PACs. I've had some outrageous, inaccurate accusations made against me by Super-PACs...

SANTORUM - I want to keep talking. Your Super-PAC was inaccurate in attacking me and if I had a Super-PAC doing that, I'd say stop it!

PERRY - Here's a great example of the insiders up here having a conversation. These should be state decisions.

ROMNEY - I agree; this should be at a state level. I agree with Ron Paul about the mistakes Santorum's made in his voting. He voted against right-to-work becuz he said his state was against it. I was in a state that wanted felons to be able to vote. Same thing.

Commercials.

Baier asks Romney about previous Huntsman quotes, asks Twitter question about how can they trust Romney to not change his positions again.

ROMNEY - I get asked this, and it's usually on my position on abortion. When I saw those embryos that would destroyed, I wrote an op-ed saying I was pro-life and I served as a pro-life governor. I've always been against gay marriage but I am for equal rights. I believe Obama is turning us into a European socialist state, I want to restore America. I believe in this country, I will fight for its values.

Juan asks Perry about SC's new law on voter registration. Are you suggesting that on MLK Day, the fed has no business investigating election laws in a state where minorities were once not allowed to vote?

PERRY - I'm saying the state of Texas is under assault from the fed govt, and SC is at war with this fed govt. At war! This administration is "at war!" with churches. This admin is out of control.

Bret asks about national debt and extending unemployment benefits.

SANTORUM - I don't support extending benefits to 99 weeks. When you're that far away from a job, you lose skills. I believe, like welfare reform, we send it back to the states, give them flexibility to implement their programs. We're not doing people any favors by keeping them on unemployment for long periods of time.

((When I was laid off in 2004, they explained to me unemployment lasted 26 weeks, but I believe that was state unemployment; I never got federal unemployment that I know of. There must've been significant changes in the law since.))

GINGRICH - All unemployment compensation should be tied to job-training. The help we should give should be connected to a business run. 99 weeks is an Associate degree. It tells you everything about the difference between Obama and the five of us. We actually think work is good. We think maximizing dependency is terrible for this country.

Kelly asks about some European downgrades.

ROMNEY - We want to keep our financial insitutions running, but we've learned some lessons. We can't give the prez a blank check choosing and picking which friends or which industries he wants to save. It's time for us to recognize that the free enterprise system works. The best way to get the US economy going to push govt out of it. Our tax rates are too high, our regulations are too burdensome, we have an energy policy that doesn't take advantage of our resources. This prex has opened up no new markets. That's the answer, not bailouts.

Gerald asks Paul about defense spending cuts that would cost SC military jobs.

PAUL - Your question suggests you're very confused about my position. I want to cut money. I want to close bases overseas, maybe have more bases here. The military is behind me more than the others. I get twice as much money from active-duty military than the other four combined.

You call for pulling military spending to 2006 levels, that would cut jobs.

PAUL - You still don't understand. There's a difference between military spending and defense spending. Building a military base in Baghdad bigger than the Vatican. You call that defense spending; I call that waste. We're supposed to be conservative. Spend less money!

Bret asks what is the highest federal income tax any American should have to pay.

PERRY - 20% flat tax. Keep it simple. ((Perry likes simple.))

SANTORUM - My highest would be 28%, same level as Reagan when he cut taxes. ((And raised them one year later.))

ROMNEY - I'd like to get it down to 25%. Right now it's 35%, paying more than 25% I'm against.

GINGRICH - I'd like to see flat tax of 15%.

PAUL - We should have the lowest tax and up until 1913 it was 0%. What's wrong with that? What our seniors are getting hit with is the inflation tax; let's see that zero.

Kelly asks again about tax records, since Romney never answered the question earlier.

ROMNEY - I looked at what's been done in past campaigns; the tradition has been to release them around April, tax-time. I'll keep my options open.

So you'll release them around April?

ROMNEY - That's probably what I'll do. ((Some murmurs from the audience on that one.))

Juan points out Romney's father was born in Mexico. ((Some boos just at the mention of Mexico.)) Aren't you alienating Latinos with your hardline stance on immigration and being against the Dream Act?

ROMNEY - Latinos like all people look at us an opportunity nation. This prez looks around and says "It could be worse." I can't believe saying that. The American people say it's gotta be better. As for immigration, I don't believe special privileges should be given to those who come illegally. We have to follow the law. I love legal immigrants.

Juan points out unemployment's 20% for blacks.

SANTORUM - A 2009 study showed 3 things can be done to avoid poverty: work, graduate high school, and get married before you have children. ((Applause from audience.)) It's a huge opportunity for us, but what is Obama doing? He has a policy targetted at at-risk youth, regulating that marriage can no longer promote marriage to young girls, they can no longer teach abstinence. This admin is deliberately telling organizations to not tell girls what good choices are.

Juan points out blacks, jailed 4 times more than white, are usually arrested for drug charges.

PAUL - There is a disparity. With blacks, they're arrested disproportionately, they're tried and convicted disproportionately, they suffer the consequence of the death penalty disproportionately. Rich white people don't get the death penalty very often. ((Would've loved to see Perry's face right then. He loves the death penalty.)) The drug war unfairly hits the minority. MLK would agree with me on the drug war and foreign wars. ((Faint applause.))

Juan asks Gingrich about his quote on how blacks should demand job not food stamps, poor people's work ethic, and his quote about having kids be janitors. Can't you see how this is insulting?

GINGRICH - No, I don't see that. ((Applause.)) My daughter's first job was a janitor. She liked working and getting paid. I've had fifty people write me about their first jobs at 11,12,13. What I tried to say, Joe Klein pointed this out to me, union janitors in NYC are paid an absurd amount of money. You could hire thirty kids for the cost of one janitor. Only the elites despise earning money. ((Applause.))

My question's on work ethic. Are your comments not intended to belittle the poor and racial minorities? ((Boos.)) You called Obama the food-stamp president. It sounds like you're intentially belittling people. ((More boos. Boos for the black guy asking about racism on MLK Day.))

GINGRICH - More people have gone on food stamps under Obama than any prez in history. I know the politically correct don't like facts that are uncomfortable. Obama hasn't done anything that's really helped the poor. ((Wild, rousing applause. People clinking beer mugs, a guy strumming his upright bass in the corner, square-dancing in the mezzanine, etc.))

Bret asks Paul about foreign policy. You said you were against the operation that killed OBL. You believe international law should have stopped from killing the man who committed the most heinous attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, the demon from hell who rose up with his bony hand and crushed the heart of America, the man who burned a flag while urinating on a Justin Bieber picture?

PAUL - No I didn't say that. After 9/11 I voted for the authority to go after him. My frustration was we didn't go after him. We used it as an excuse for nation building.

My question's on international law.

PAUL - We communicated with Pakistan on giving us KSM, and they handed him over. But when you don't respect the sovereignty of other nations, we keep bombing these countries trying to get our enemies, we reduce them to civil war, they're getting money from us to rebuild. It's a deeply flawed policy. When they waited ten years, I don't see why they couldn't have done it the way they did KSM. Say a Chinese dissident came here, we wouldn't endorse "Well, they can come over and bomb us trying to get him..." We wouldn't expect him. There are proper procedures. We keep digging bigger holes for ourselves. Iraq's getting worse, we're still in Afghanistan...

I understand. They found there were plans for further attacks. On this topic, GOP candidate Ron Paul would be far to the left of Barack Obama on hunting down terrorists. <>

PAUL - We captured Saddam Hussein. His country hung him, he had a trial. We gave Adolph Eichmann a trial. Why can't we question them first, get information?

Bret asks Gingrich about would he kill OBL even if it meant the end of relations of Pakistan.

GINGRICH - OBL plotted to bomb the USS Cole and killed 3100 Americans on 9/11. He was not a Chinese dissident. His analogy is "utterly" irrational. When you give a country billions and you learn they've been hiding the biggest terrorist in the world, you go in and bomb him. Now let's talk about Andrew Jackson. he had a clear-cut idea about America's enemies: kill them. ((Holy crap, did he just bring up the founder of the Democratic Party and notorious racist Indian-killer Andrew Jackson as a standard for 2012 foreign policy?))

PAUL - We ought to consider a Golden Rule in foreign policy. Don't do to other nations what we wouldn't want them to do to us. ((Ongoing boos.)) This idea that we can't debate foreign policy, we just need to start another war. These people can't wait to start another war. We should quit the ones we're in! ((Applause.))

Bret asks Romney about negotiating with the Taliban.

ROMNEY - Of course not. Newt's right. Take out our enemies whereever they are. These people declared war on us. They killed Americans. We go where they are and kill them. OBL recived the right course of action, a bullet to the head. The Taliban is killing Americans. Obama announced the date of our withdrawal. He announced the date he wants to pull out altogether and now he wants to negotiate? We're under attack. The right way is to have a military so strong that no one would think of testing it. We do not negotiate with the Taliban when they're killing American soliders. We need to streghten the Afghan military force.

Bret asks how Santorum would deal with Syria.

SANTORUM - Obama's been as bad as possible. He props up this dictator which endangers Israel. We need to rally the international community, remove Assad, I don't support us going in, but us supporting policy that would remove him.

Bret brings up Turkey. Do they still belong in NATO?

PERRY - Turkey's ruled by Islamic terrorists, it's time to cut off all foreign aid to them. Do they have America's best interest? They were an ally in the 1970's. We need a prez who will stand up to Turkey and Syria and Iran and let them know we need to be dealt with. I served my country in the Air Force. When our Sec of Defense call what those Marines did ((urinating on the corpses)) "utterly despicable", I'll tell you what's despicable, those people who cut Danny Pearl's head off!

PAUL - I too served in the military from 62 to 68. i was in the Afghan/Pakistan region. Let me tell you something, the Taliban were our allies when they were fighting Russia. The Taliban is against foreigners. It's al-Qaeda who wants to come here and kill us, let's not confuse the two.\

Kelly asks Romney about the NDAA. Would he have signed it as written?

ROMNEY - Yes I would have. ((Boos.)) If you join a group that wants to kill Americans, that's treason. I disagree with the prez on a lot but I have faith he will not abuse this power. I would not abuse that power. You have elect someone with the values and character to not abuse it. Our military is shrinking. We're not giving our veterans the benfits they deserve.

SANTORUM - Whines about time, invokes habeas corpus, says the NDAA should not have passed. You should have the right to go to court.

PAUL - We're going in the wrong direction of our liberties. The Patriot Act wiped out the 4th Amendment. Now we have a policy of pre-emptive war where we don't have to declare war, this NDAA is major. It says an American citizen can be held indefinitely by the military. Don't give up on our American judicial system so easily, I beg of you.

PERRY - We need to cut the tax rate down where people feel comfortable investing. That's why I support 20% flat tax. Does his Timothy Geitner line again. Pull back regulations! They're strangling jobs. Let's pass a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Kelly says so you wouldn't do anything to help tyhe housing market?

PERRY - I think I just said two things that are pretty powerful.

Gerald asks Romney about Social Security.

ROMNEY - I won't touch for anyone 55 or older. I'm sure the Democrats will start showing ads of Republicans throwing old people off of cliffs ((laughs)) but don't forget Obama cut $500 billion from Medicare to pay for Obamacare. I'd lower the rate of inflation growth for higher-income recipients. I'd raise the retirement age a year or two. Repeal Obamacare.

Gerald asks Gingrich about his SS plan, which includes privatization. But you said the givt would pay the difference if the private account doesn't pay what it would have if stayed in SS. Is that really a free market solution?

GINGRICH - I'm a historian. Anyway, in Galveston TX and Chile, they tried this and it works. These are historic facts. it gets the govt out of telling you when to retire. It makes every American an investor.

SANTORUM - We need to keep American jobs, not ship them off like the mills here were. The foreign competition is cheaper to do business, but it's because of govt taxes and regulation. Make the little guys pay the same as the big guys. I want to make a point about mitt's plan. it's not bold, and Newt's is not responsible. We're running a deficit in SS. Our debt would go up by hundreds of billions. We'd have to borrow more from China. First balance the budget. Privatize SS now is fiscal insanity, and Romney's not bold.

GINGRICH - The plan on my website shows we'll deal with 185 bureaucracies that deal with low-income Americans, consolidate and send back to the states. It's a sound plan, and I say that as someone who balanced the budget four years in a row.

SANTORUM - We can't do that now due to the deficit.

GINGRICH - As someone who baolanced the budget four times, I'm confident I can make it work w/o balancing the budget.

ROMNEY - Rick is right. It's going to be tough to get our budget balanced and our deficit cut. We should allow people to have a voluntary savings account.

Juan asks Romney about his 2nd amendment record. Signed assault-weapons ban in Massachusetts, increased fees on gun owners 400%.

ROMNEY - In my state we had legislation drafted by pro-gun and anti-gun lobbies. The pro-gun folks liked some of the pieces in it and supported. We found common ground. I believe in gun rights.

Have you gone hunting since you talked about hunting "varmints."

ROMNEY - I've been elk hunting and pheasant hunting. I'm not the serious hunter Perry is.

Perry swells with pride.

Juan asks Santorum about his anti-gun votes.

SANTORUM - Sometimes you have to pass something so they won't pass soemthing much worse. I have an A+ record with the NRA. Contrast that with Paul, I protected gun manufacturers. We banned those lawsuits. Paul voted against that bill; he would have wiped out the 2nd Amendment.

PAUL - Hardly. You don't have national tort law, that should be at the state level. I'm trying to repeal gun bans. That's an overstretch.

SANTORUM - I need to respond. W/o a natl bill, people would have gone to Massachusetts or New York and sued the gun manufacturers out of existance.

PAUL - This is how our Constitution gets nibbled away. Tort law should be a state's issue.

Gerald asks Gingrich about his support of China's one-child law.

GINGRICH - It's "explicitly" a falsehood. It's an absurdity. It'd be nice if Romney would display leadership and call his former colleagues running his Super-PAC to take inaccuracies off the air.

ROMNEY - I said in our last debate that any Super-PAC, whether it's supporting me or supporting you, should take flasehoods off the air. Now I can't contact them directly because that would be against the law. Is that correct?

GINGRICH - Absolutely.

ROMNEY - Alright, so I can't do what you just asked me to do. ((Upper cut!)) I can say publicly I hope any Super-PAC that has falsehoods would remove them from the air. Now, Newt, you have a Super-PAC running an ad with the biggest hoax since Bigfoot. This ad is entirely false, this documentary describes events I had nothing to do with. To imply we have different standards is not quite right.

GINGRICH - I've called on them publicly to edit them. I would hope you'd call on yours to do the same.

ROMNEY - Look, we'd all like to get rid of Super-PACs to tell you the truth. Let people donate what they want to campaigns, let candidates be responsible for their own words. McCain-Feingold was a disaster. ((Applause. Except at the McCain household.)) We don't want this strange situation where we can't control what ads our supporters put up.

Kelly says border crossing is at a 40-year low.

PERRY - The reason it's at a 40-year low is becuz of this economy. I've spent 11 years dealing with this issue. Americans wants us to spend the money to secure the border.

GINGRICH - I'd get rid of No Child Left Behind. The correct answer is to "radically" reduce the Dept of Education and send it back to the states.

And that's it.

So how'd they do?

5. RICK PERRY - Wants to put a chip on his shoulder and go kick dirt on the shoes of Iran and Syria and Turkey. Wants South Carolina to secede so Texas can follow. Kept using phrases like "under assault" and "at war." Even more he said "taxes" and "regulation" about twenty times each. No reason for him to still be there.

4. MITT ROMNEY - There were times he had cool, confident answers. Other times he was knocked on his heels and tried to hedge his answers and leave himself wiggle room. He's the front-runner, he'll be the biggest target. But his tax-return answer was weak, and his support of the NDAA made my jaw drop. He's still alandslide front-runner, but if I were him, I'd start backing out of some of these debates. We've had a ton.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - He did really well in the room, but when you look at his answers, my goodness. Doubled down on making kids the janitors of their own schools, somehow made janitors sound like some overpaid elitist union job, and his outrage over the Super-PAC was muted by Romney's responses. And his Andrew Jackson line... staggering. And yet crowd reaction would suggest he won. Fox News seems to think it'll help Gingrich move up in the polls. I can only shake my head.

2. RICK SANTORUM - Showed toughness against Romney, against Gingrich, against Paul. Don't know why he thought saying that making the little guy pay as much as the big guys would be an applause line. I don't see why people who've supported him to this point would abandon him now.

1. RON PAUL - Sounds like the only guy who wants to reverse the course of our neverending military-industrial complex. The crowd booed him more than anyone else, and yet, what doesn't fly in South Carolina flies in other parts of the country. I don't agree with him on everything, but I really wish some of his attitudes would catch on with the other candidates.

Huckabee Forum 2

2012-01-15T13:16:00.000-08:00

MIKE HUCKABEE
in
FORUM 2: SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY!!

Huckabee is on a stage with a live audience. They're in line to ask questions.

8:00 - Huck introduces Gov. Nikki Haley. She is rocking it in the black dress with knee-high boots.

8:02 - Mike Huckabee's intro is starting to lull me to sleep, but he wakes us up with an applause line about how the candidates are not allowed to attack each other. Ron Paul won't be here, but Jon Huntsman will. Innnteresting.

8:03 - Rep. Tim Scott has rehearsed lines to sing the praises of South Carolina's importance.

8:05 - First up is MITT ROMNEY. First question is about the housing market. "What will you do to protect Americans' rights to own their homes" and how will you restore the housing industry?

Some people ask what govt can do to help, but I want to stop govt from doing what hurts. I don't want to go back to those "years of yesteryear." Not going to return to the days of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae just handing out mortgages to people who couldn't possibly repay them. Interest only mortgages got us in real trouble. With 9.9% unemployment here in SC, we need to get this economy going, get people jobs.

Follow-up: Will you continue to keep mortgage interest as a tax deduction?

Yes.

8:08 - Question on separation of power. Seems like the Prez is assuming a lot of power that isn't really there.

The Prez has taken extra-Constitutional powers and is appointing his friends to positions of power, most egregious was the National Labor Relations Board, paying back organized union labor, put "union stooges" on the board. Obama came in with Dem house and Dem senate so he didn't feel he needed to reach across the aisle. He wants to jam through what he likes to do.

Commercials.
8:12 - Question: I'm a Ron Paul supporter. After RomneyCare and supporting TARP bailout, how can we believe you and Obama aren't two sides of the same coin?

Obama and I would take the country in two very different directions. He wants to weaken the military, cut a trillion dollars in spending. He wants to spend way more than we have. Like Ron Paul and others, I want to cut spending and balance the budget. Like Ron Paul, I want a free economy where govt gets out of the way.

8:14 - Question: I'm on Medicare. What will you do to keep doctors from opting out of Medicare so they'll continue to serve seniors and military families?

Obama and co. want to put in price controls and tell docs how much they can be reimbursed. It hasn't worked; we have the highest health-care costs in the world. I want to treat health-care like a market. Like Paul Ryan described, I'd reshape Medicare where individuals can choose traditional Medicare or private Medicare plans. The way to keep costs down is competition.

8:17 - Question: As a Christian, I am disturbed there are growing anti-Christian sentiments in this country. It seems like there are more restrictions against religion all the time. What will you do to protect freedom of religion?

I will stand up for the ability of all Americans to worship God how they choose. I don't believe in the secularization of America. People should be able to put up manger scenes at Christmastime, or menorrahs for Hannakuh, etc.

8:19 - Question: Can you convince me - (Mitt gives a 'heh' laugh here which makes her pause a fraction of a second) - as a true conservative why we should vote for you, a moderate Republican, against any of the other candidates? Will you flip-flop on any issues once elected, and will you break campaign promises like Obama has?

You have an opportunity to get to know me through my record. I think you'll find I served as a conservative governor. We balanced the budget every year, we cut taxes 19 times, I empowered our police to enforce immigration law, I implemented English immersion in our schools, I cut the spending in our budget my first year. Read my book No Apology. I love America.

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8:23 - Next is JON HUNTSMAN. First question is what would you do in first 30 days that would have positive impact on people who vote for you.

Plugs that he and Huck last appeared on stage together with REO Speedwagon.

I would lead. There's a certain rhythm to politics. If you don't strike right away, you're never going to get it done. 1.) Tax reform 2.) Clean up the regulatory mess. 3.) Take steps toward energy independence. Within 30 days, we'd have a roadmap laid out.

8:25 - Three-part question. So many people out of work, will you continue to sanction people coming in, taking our high-tech jobs.

We need to fix our immigration problem. We need to secure the southern border. For those who go to our universities, I would incentivize them to stay, to grow our economy. We need to increase tourism. We need a leader who can reform the Dept of Homeland Security.

8:28 - You are pro-life but you place stipulations on rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother. If every life is of God, how can you place stipulations on these lives?

I'm clear on my pro-life philosophy. Points out his daughter he adopted from China, she was abandoned at two months, but he's glad her mother gave her life. I've studied it and I have those three stipulations and I hope that's good enough for you.

8:30 - The ultimate candidate could face $1 billion of dirty tricks. Do you anticipate an undercurrent of religious prejudice, and if so, how do you intend to defend your beliefs?

I intend to defend my faith, my family, my beliefs by being who I am. They'll come to know the family of the candidate. All you can do is be your best. The good people of this country will get to know you.

Commercials.

8:34 - We put a man on the moon, but now we can't put a man into space w/o hitching a ride with Russia. What would you do to save space program?

The space program inspires the next generation. I was 9 when man landed on the moon. There's the economic benefit. I will not subcontract our space program out to any other country. I will make sure we have an economy that can support a solid space program.

8:36 - Dept. of Education has grown exponentially, and yet no progress. Where do u stand on that Department.

Simple answer. So long to the Dept. of Education. I've had seven kids. We did public school, private school, homeschooling, international schooling. A one-size-fits-all approach to education won't cut it. We need to focus on early childhood development.

8:38 - Question on foreign aid. We spend millions rebuilding mosques in Syria, sewer system in Egypt, we have a trade deficit with China yet we gave them $7 million to fight air pollution. How would you strive to change this?

If our invested dollar doesn't have a return to the US by expanding our economy or creating jobs, I want nothing to do with it. My foreign policy is to get our house in order.

----

8:43 - Next is NEWT GINGRICH. First question is from a pregnant woman who was laid off. What is your plan to create jobs nationally and specifically in SC?

Nationally I worked with Reagan and we created 16 million jobs. I worked with Clitnon and we created 11 million new jobs. (Is he listening to himself?) I'd repeal Dodd-Frank which is killing jobs. We should develop offshore natural gas here in SC. We should take part in the royalties from the natural gas. Thru tax policy we need to rebuild infrastructure in SC.

8:45 - The Founding Fathers were opposed to a national bank.

I wrote a series of books on the founding fathers. I'd want to be more like them, which is why I'd want Bernake fired my first day in office. I'm against the Fed propping up the Euro.

8:47 - People in economy understand creative destruction. How do you defend attacking that?

I don't attack it. Gov. Romney... (boos) Okay, let me rephrase. Our candidate needs to be prepared to answer the tough questions before we nominate them.

8:49 - I voted for Obama in 2008. People in this country are sick of partisan gridlock. How can we make progress?

With Reagan we had to get a third of the Democrats. As Speaker, we had Bill Clinton as president. You look at DC today, you're not going to fix that mess with speeches. You need to work together.

Commercials!

8:53 - How do you address the class warfare rhetoric of the Obama administration?

Reagan, Reagan, Reagan, we created millions of jobs. Obama's created more food stamps. I don't believe in 99% and 1%. I believe in 100% working for more jobs.

8:55 - I'm a federal worker. How are you going to cut the federl budget without cutting federal jobs?

When we talk about federal workers, we're talking about border security, our military, etc. An intelligent conservative wants the right employees carrying out their duties in an efficient way. The EPA is committed to dictation not cooperation.

8:57 - My fed taxes increased last year and now my health-insurance premiums have increased. If elected, how soon will you reverse this?

We need a run a team campaign. We need more senate seats, more house seats. I'd ask on my first day for Congress to repeal ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, and Sarbanes-Oxley.

8:59 - If you could change anything about election laws, what would it be?

I'd get rid of all the Mickey Mouse laws, let individuals contribute as much as they want as long as it's reporting each night, get rid of SuperPacs, get rid of negativity. The candidates would be responsible.

----

9:02 - Next is RICK SANTORUM. Many of us are pro-life like you. What would you do to win over liberals to beat Obama in Novewmber?

I've been elected five times, drawing people from both sides to win. Folks trusted me, knowing what I was doing. We didn't have to agree on everything. I have a proven track record.

9:04 - My husband's been unemployed for four years. Our 401k is gone, the IRA is gone. We moved south becuz it's cheaper. What can you do for people in our position?

You chose a lovely state to move to, we vacation here. My economic plan is a bold plan, the WSJ called it the best. I believe we need to revive manufacturing, it's a robust sector that can grow. We need to compete with those other countries who are taking our manufacturing jobs.

9:07 - I bought 12 items from an outdoor shop. All of them were made in China. What will you do to correct the trade deficit?

We're selling sweater vests online. We're losing jobs becuz our govt is creating the imbalance with high taxes and regulations. I support legislation that require Congress to approve these regulations. Bush and Clinton tended to add 60 regulations a year, Obama's added 150 a year. We need regulation reform.

9:09 - How can you call yourself a true conservative when you've voted to raise the debt ceiling six times?

It was five, according to Ron Paul. When in Congress, you can work toward lowering spending, which I have. I authored the welfare reform bill, I've led on Social Security reform, I've led on Medicare reform. When dealing with debt ceiling you have to address entitlements.

9:11 - I'm concerned about the unemployed over 50. What say you to those who don't have resources?

Folks with experience can take it and use it to build their own business. This admin has crushing tax burden and regulation burden. Republicans are the party of small business. Obama loves big business. Then he can send in his regulators and embed them in the corporation and create a symbiotic relationship.

9:13 - You're pro-life, but you support the death penalty, and you support abortion in cases of rape and incest. How can you justify taking an adult life?

I don't have an exception for rape and incest. With death penalty, we're not talking about an innocent human life. The court rules you cannot be executed for rape, but the same court upheld that a child conceived from that rape could be killed. That is a country that has its morals upsode-down.

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9:18 - Next is RICK PERRY. Having lived in NYC, I've seen people taken extreme advantage of welfare and disability. What would you do to reform welfare?

At fed level, we need HHS department that audits out fraud. In our state we saved $5 billion by combining some agencies but also by appointing an inspector general.

9:20 - As a businessman, I need to factor in tax code to any business decision I make. How will you simplify the tax code.

You'll love my plan. 20% flat tax. Steve Forbes and Club for Growth love it. It's the best plan. We get rid of capital gains, keep deductions for mortgage, charity, put it on a postcard and we'll reshape the IRS as we know it. Even Timothy Geitner could get his taxes in on time.

9:22 - When considering a vice-president, would you want someone who just makes appearances like Joe Biden, or someone integral in decision-making like Dick Cheney?

Mike, what do you have going on next year? (Laughs.) "Hosting this show." He was my neighbor so I know he can compete. My VP would be someone who shares my philosophy, you want someone who's a partner. Needs to be someone who shares your passion for this country, for small business, for defense.

9:24 - What executive action would you take with the out-of-control withe the NLRB?

Get rid of it, make it part of Dept. of Labor. Each of our states are under assault by this administration. They're actually at war with SC. Their justice dept wants to take on your sovereign right to have immigration laws in place, or your voter ID laws.

Commercials!

9:27 - Question: cuz Fed govt spends $4 billion a day more than it takes in, what's your plan to cut budget?

It's on my website. It outlines how we'll balance the budget by 2010. Ask yourself, Are you better off today than you were $4 trillion ago? The CEO of Coca-Cola said it's easier to do business in communist China than in the US. Cut the taxes and regulations!

9:30 - Will you eliminate the EPA and if not, why?

No state has been more under assault by the EPA than Texas. They are out fo control, spewing out regulations. I trust the state's legislatures to make rulings on their environment than some DC bureaucrat who's never set foot in this state.

9:32 - Will any manufacturing jobs that went to China come back?

They'll come back. We overtaxed and overregulated those jobs out of here. We need to not tax overseas profits that Americans try to bring back into the country. We need to give entrepreneurs incentive to innovate in this country, not drive them out. Drop corporate income tax.

Commercials!

Closing remarks

Mitt Romney - This election is about more than removing a president; it's about the soul of America. We should be an opportunity nation. Take risks, pursue dreams. Obama wants to make us an entitlement nation. He wants to make govt bigger, I want to make it smaller. I want to cut, cap and balance our budget. I want to restore America to its principles.

Rick Perry - I was a pilor in the US Air Force, but we need to bring change, real change, to DC. An outsider who has the background to bring change. It's my purpose to serve this country. We need a president with a tax plan, we need to radically change Congress to be part-time.

Rick Santorum - I want to return the power to the people of America. This is the most important election of our lifetime. We need a prez who recognizes and shares the values of America. Be bold, be strong in your vote. SC voted for Reagan in 1980. Believe! We can restore this country to greatness.

Jon Huntsman - I want people to remember I will always put my country first. I instill that in my two boys in the Navy. I want to bring term limits to Congress and get rid of them turning right around and becoming lobbyists. I want to get our troops out of Afghanistan and I want to rein in those banks that are too big to fail.

Newt Gingrich - If Obama wins reelection, he will be so radical, having been vindicated, that he will bring down this country. I'm going to make sure I mention Reagan more than anyone else. I created millions of jobs as Speaker. We need a conservative who can win the debates against Obama.

Commercials!

Huckabee asks audience members what they thought about the answers they had. First audience member he asked was the Ron Paul supporter who dissed Romney's answer. Of course.

Next audience member was a Santorum questioner. "My husband's 60, so I don't see how bringing back manufacturing jobs is going to help him."

Next was a Gingrich questioner. "I was disappointed he still wants to keep the Fed." Great that he wants to get rid of Bernanke. We see under Obama how we shouldn't let one person make so many appointments.

Next was a Perry questioner. "I liked his enthusiasm." But he felt he didn't get anything specific on what sectors of the economy would grow.

Next was Huntsman questioner, on the space program. Liked his line about not subcontracting out the space program, but we need something quickly.

Okay, so no audience member was satisfied with any candidate on any question. Interesting. What is Huck doing? Now he asks Rep. Scott if it helped him decide which candidate he wanted to support.

What intrigued me most about this is that these are Republican voters, but they are real middle-class people who are hurting and many of them were like "Don't take away my safety. What will you do for me in government?"

In the room, my hunch is Santorum fared best and Gingrich fared worst. I think Huntsman opened some eyes on South Carolina voters who didn't really know him. Perry's like a puppy-dog. Happy to be there, wagging his tail, not going to be president. Romney stuck to his stump speech talking points.

Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire primary

2012-01-10T17:57:00.000-08:00

So Mitt Romney has done what no Republican has done. He was won Iowa and New Hampshire.

Ron Paul can claim he and Romney are the only GOP nominees to finish in the top three in both states.

Right now CNN is saying the order as such:

Romney - 36%
Paul - 25%
Huntsman - 17%
Gingrich - 10%
Santorum - 10%
Perry - 1%

Part of me is hoping Santorum winds up clinching fourth to encourage Newt to drop out. I'm also hoping Buddy Roemer can beat Rick Perry.

So what is being said about this win?

UPDATE:

Rick Perry isn't even going to get 1%.

Meet the Press GOP Debate

2012-01-08T15:14:00.000-08:00

Pre-game - I would sure love it if they brought up copyright and patent reform, NDAA, SOPA and PIPA, but since all TV news are owned by big corporations, it's just not going to happen.

David Gregory thanks the candidates for being there.

"I didn't say you were a Manchurian candidate, Jon. I just said you visited Manchuria a lot and you're a candidate for president. People like to quote me out of context."

NEWT GINGRICH - Who's most likely to survive in the long run against Obama? We need a bold Reagan conservative, not a timid Massachusetts moderate. I worked with Reagan in the 1980's. Obama's going to have a difficult re-election effort.

MITT ROMNEY - I'm proud of my record, and New Hampshire was our neighbor, they saw how I did. We have to replace a lifelong politician (Obama) with someone who is not a lifelong politician (me!)

RICK SANTORUM - If Mitt's record was so great, why not run for re-election? Why bail out? When he ran against Ted Kennedy who ran from conservative principles. ("But you endorsed Romney in 2008.") Vis a vie John McCain, yeah.

MITT ROMNEY - I got Massachusetts working, I did what I wanted to do, if I'd run again, it would've been about me. ("But, but...!") Rick, Rick, it's my time.

NEWT GINGRICH - I realize the red light doesn't mean anything to you becuz you're the frontrunner. (Some boos.) Can we drop the pious baloney? You've been running since the 1990's.

MITT ROMNEY - I didn't plan on getting into politics, but when I saw Ted Kennedy running unopposed, I as a ctitizen tried to put a stop to it.

RON PAUL - This whole debate has been superficial when we're not talking about spending or the debt or these foreign wars. We really have to talk about real cuts. Character's important, motivation's important, but in the debate format, it's less significant than what we really believe in.

RICK PERRY - Who can beat Obama, invigorate the Tea Party, make real change? And as I look down the row to Santorum I see insiders (thus excluding Huntsman). Who can stand up and lead the Tea Party? It was their power in 2010 that brought the House to Republican control.

MITT ROMNEY - The people in NH see what I did as governor. I wrote a book and described my view for the country. I've seen government tries to solve problems and it doesn't work. It's frankly made me more conservative as time goes on.

JON HUNTSMAN - I'm sure the people are confused by all the political spin up here. I was criticized for putting my country first. Yes, I was serving my country with China under a Democratic administration, but it shouldn't matter, just as it doesn't matter to my two sons in the US Navy.

MITT ROMNEY - I don't disrespect his decision. I just think the person we put against Obama shouldn't be someone who called him a marvelous leader and worked for his administration for two years.

JON HUNTSMAN - The reason this country is so divided is because of attitudes like that. (Applause!) I agree with the Paul Ryan plan for the budget; there will be no sacred cows. There will be means testing, Social Security, Medicare. I won't tie the defense budget to GDP.

RICK SANTORUM - I agree with Huntsman with means testing. We ought to reduce SS benefits for the retired wealthy. To subsidize high-income seniors doesn't make sense to me.

NEWT GINGRICH - I find it fascinating that highly-paid DC insiders talk about pain. Who's going to be in pain? On theft alone, we could save $100 billion a year on Medicaid/medicare expenses if the govt were competant.

Ron Paul & Newt Gingrich applaud Rick Perry's ability to count to 3

RICK PERRY - I'll get rid of the Departments of Energy, Education and Commerce. (Laughter.)

RICK SANTORUM - I'd return more federal programs to the states.

MITT ROMNEY - I'd cut Obamacare, that'd save $95 billion a year.

JON HUNTSMAN - It's silly to have us raise our hands. We are so full of loopholes and deductions. We need to ger rid of them and say "so long" to corporate welfare.

NEWT GINGRICH - Compromise can be done with real leadership. I worked with Clinton on welfare reform.

MITT ROMNEY - I was governor in a state with 85% Democratic legislature. I met with them personally, found those issues we agreed on, we could work together.

RON PAUL - I'm cutting the budget by going back to 2006 budgetary levels and dropping foreign wars. When people get more freedom and get more of their money back, they don't feel any pain.

RICK SANTORUM - Paul's never been able to pass anything or work with anybody. What he could do as CiC is pull all of our troops out of countries everywhere and create vacuums. What Republicans like about him, he couldn't do, and what they're afraid of, he'd do on day one.

RON PAUL - We can't keep up this Woodrow Wilson foreign policy. They have elections overseas that we don't even accept.

RICK SANTORUM - I was able to get things done with Democrats. I was there with welfare reform.

JON HUNTSMAN - It comes down to trust. They hear the spin and still feel they're not being represented. My first press conference when I ran for governor was on ethics in government. We need term limits for Congress, and we need rules that stops them from turning right around and becoming lobbyists.

RICK PERRY - I hope I make Republicans uncomfortable when I talk about the out-of-control spending they did in the 2000's when they had control of both parties (Parties?!) DG: "You think you'll make the GOP uncomfortable by talking about cutting spending?" (Sounds incredulous.) You're darn right.

Commercials!

JON HUNTSMAN - We can't effectively confront our energy problems until we have energy independence. We need to break up oil distribution monopoly. (Applause.)

RON PAUL - Subsidies per se are bad economically bad policy. When it comes to energy, we should deregulate it. Prices go up when government gets involved.

MITT ROMNEY - We don't need a federal govt to be trying to solve poverty all over the nation. All these social safety nets need to be sent back to the states. You have all these govt bureaucrats administering these programs. I don't discriminate. I had a man in my Cabinet who was gay, I put gays on the bench. Right now.

RICK SANTORUM - I would be a voice for gays to be treated equally, but I wouldn't want them to change laws on marriage or adoption. Just becuz you don't agree with someone's desires to change the laws doesn't mean you dislike them personally. We can be respectful even if we don't agree. ("What if your son told you he was gay?") I would love him just as much as the second before he said it. (That sound you hear is a ball being knocked out of a park.)

RICK PERRY - Plugs Jim DeMint and winks at South Carolina before moving to "I'm not anti-union; I'm pro-job."

MITT ROMNEY - There are benefits from unions. Carpenters unions makes sure their members are trained. I agree with Perry on right-to-work. But we need to look at govt unions.

RICK SANTORUM - Unions also do good in the community. I worked with several labor unions in Philadelphia.

Commercials!

NEWT GINGRICH - It's not an "easy answer" if it's a statement of fact. Obama has killed jobs, increased oil dependence on foreign countries.

MITT ROMNEY - I don't blame Obama for the recession; I blame him for letting it go on so long.

I'm starting to get tired here. Newt talks about federal government incompetance, Perry talks about govt needs to stop trying one-size-fits-all solutions. Santorum would use premium-support model for Medicare reform.

RON PAUL - Entitlements are not rights. (Applause.) There's only really one right, the right to liberty. We should deal with the military-industrial complex.

JON HUNTSMAN - I've done 160 public events in NH. The people want a leader who will unite, it's not about taking groups and villifying. As president I'll attack the trust deficit as much as the budget deficit.

Commercials!

RICK SANTORUM - Why is it we cannot live with a nuclear Iran when we live with a nuclear North Korea? They're a theocracy. Achmadinejad has said martyrdom is great. Pakistan is not a theocracy. We have a president who's weak.

NEWT GINGRICH - I'm consistant becuz I believe in fact-based campaigns. I haven't seen the PAC ad, but the New York Times reported the bad stuff about Bain.

MITT ROMNEY - I can't control what the PACs do, but the ad I saw said (he rattles off 4 things) and those were all true. If they're wrong about something, I hope they take them down. And some of the names you've called me I found were over the top.

NEWT GINGRICH - We've put South Carolina TV stations on notice to fact-check the ads before they air them. (Veiled threat watch.)

RICK SANTORUM - I wrote a book "It Takes a Family." We need to support families.

RON PAUL - Our Founders understood what liberty meant. We need to defend liberty.

And.... scene!

Okay, let's look at this:

MITT ROMNEY

Best Moment - Rattling off all of the true things about Gingrich in one of the ads Newt was complaining about.

Worst Moment - Doubling down on criticizing Huntsman's service as ambassador.

Overall - After getting beat up in the beginning, Mitt was able to coast the rest of the way. I don't think he hurt himself, and I think he again demonstrated his skills at debate, and if beating Obama is a priority, the guy has to know how to debate.

JON HUNTSMAN

Best Moment - "The reason this country is so divided is because of attitudes like that." The most effective punch anyone has ever landed on Mitt.

Worst Moment - If you had the word "trust" in your Jon Huntsman drinking game, you shouldn't drive right now.

Overall - Great performance, maybe his best yet. This should solidify his support in New Hampshire. Don't know if it translates to any other states.

RON PAUL

Best Moment - Criticizing our "Woodrow Wilson foreign policy."

Worst Moment - His little ramble about debt and the budget and the Fed and... it just all merges together sometimes.

Overall - If you're not a Ron Paul believer yet, it just isn't going to happen.

RICK SANTORUM

Best Moment - "I would love him just as much as the second before he said it."

Worst Moment - That record-needle-scratching sound right after the reporter mentioned Santorum endores Romney in 2008 after Santorum had just been ripping on him.

Overall - Meh. He seems more concerned about knocking Ron Paul out of the race than Mitt Romney.

RICK PERRY

Best Moment - Making light of the three departments he'd cut.

Worst Moment - Saying that Republicans controlled both parties in the 2000's.

Overall - I know there's a chance he could resurrect his campaign in South Carolina, but it feels like a waste of our time to have him on stage, and it bugs me they still won't let Buddy Roemer debate but they let Perry hang around.

NEWT GINGRICH

Best Moment - Criticizing the media, but of course.

Worst Moment - Letting his inner Angry Newt out to create a new meme - "pious baloney."

Overall - It's never good for Newt to remind the electorate how bitter and unstable he can be. There's a fine line between being tough and being a jerk.

ABC New Hampshire Debate

2012-01-07T22:06:00.000-08:00

7:00 - "The stakes couldn't be higher." Sure they could. You could say the two that do the worst will be thrown into an alligator pit. Them's higher stakes.

7:02 - Oh dear. Diane Sawyer is using that same patronizing tone explaining the rules she used in the last debate. Was she completely shielded from all criticism last time?

7:03 - Romney says Obama taking credit for job creation is like the rooster taking credit for the sun rise.

7:04 - Santorum says we need a leader and says no one has more experience in dealing with Iraq than he does. Of our enemies, "if they cross us, they should fear us." Santorum says we need a Commander-in-Chief, not a manager. The CiC is not a CEO. [Quick trivia note: Santorum was a lawyer until he was first elected to Congress at age 32.]

7:05 - Romney wipes out Santorum by trying to marginalize him as a manager.

7:06 - George Stephanopoulos quotes some of negative things about Bain Capital to Newt Gingrich. Newt dances around the answer, promotes the New York Times' acrticle that profiled a company that still failed under Bain. Newt says "the New York Times" four times. I had no idea he was such a fan.

7:07 - Mitt says he can understand why the NYT would demonize capitalism but is surprised "some people on this stage" would do the same thing. This is a free enterprise system.

7:09 - Jon Huntsman: "Scrutinize our records. Especially look at what the governors did."

7:11 - There's Huntsman, Paul and Romney on the left side of the stage, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry on the right. If the right side of the stage all dropped out, I'd be happy. Kind of annoyed that Buddy Roemer isn't allowed to be here but Perry is, as Roemer was actually ahead of Perry in a couple NH polls.

7:12 - George asks Paul about a quote where he called Santorum corrupt. Paul says he was quoting from a survey that found Santorum to be one of the most corrupt in DC due to how much money he took from lobbyists. Ooooh. Quotes the different big-government moves Rick made in the Senate, doubling the size of the Dept. of Education, and after he left office, he became a highly-paid, high-powered lobbyist.

7:14 - Santorum: "The group that called me corrupt was CREW, and if you haven't been sued by CREW, you're not a conservative, and you should know better than to cite George Soros-backed organizations. I'm not a libertarian; I do believe in some government. You put your own earmarks in bills." Rick's fighting back against Ron's charges quite effectively.

7:16 - Paul: "I vote against big spending. You vote for big spending, you're a big-government spender, not a conservative. Someone has to point out your record."

7:17 - Santorum: You're wrong about my record.

7:18 - Perry: This is why I got in this race. I am the only one, cept maybe Huntsman, who is an outsider of the culture of DC. Calls Paul a hypocrite for putting earmarks in spending bills and then voting on the bills.

7:19 - Paul: "I call it being a Constitutionalist. You designate every penny. Congress has more responsibility. Back to Santorum, he voted to raise the debt ceiling five times. What's your excuse?"

7:20 - Santorum: "I worked on welfare reform, tried to reform Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare."

Santorum and Paul are saying the opposite things about Rick's record. What is the truth?

7:21 - Huntsman: Being CiC is more than this political insider gobblety-gook we just heard. It's about being a leader. We need leadership that can be trusted. The American people don't trust their leaders. Everybody knows Congress needs term limits.

7:22 - Diane Sawyer asks Romney to respond to Huntsman's claim he'd speak best for the US. Romney: "Well, he'd be better than Obama, let's put it that way."

The occasional compliment to your opponent goes a long way with many voters.

7:25 - Josh McElveen points out Perry and Paul have military experience, asks Perry if military experience helps with being CiC. The prez shrinking the Dept of Defense will put Americans in danger.

7:27 - Gingrich points out his dad was in the military, he feels for veterans. I have a pretty good sense of what veteran families need.

7:28 - Paul: "People who get 3,4,5 deferrments have no right to send our kids to war. At least I went when I was called up. If you add up all the contractors and soldiers, etc., we've lost 8500 Americans in these two wars. Rick keeps bringing up "libertarian" but I am talking about the Constitution. It bothers me when we keep sending kids off to war, especially when many of these leaders got out of it when it would have been their time.

7:30 - Newt: "Ron has a long history of saying things that are inaccurate and false. I never asked for a deferrment. I personally resent the slander. I was married with a child at the time."

7:31 - Paul: "When I was drafted, I had a wife and two kids, and I went." (Applause.) George then asks him about the racist newsletter. "You're asking about something 20 years ago that I didn't write, it's a distraction. Let's talk about my work in race relations." Rattles of several stats about racial inequality, especially in selective law enforcement.

Commercials!

7:38 - George asks Romney if he thinks states have the right to ban contraception. Romney says no state wants to, and if he were governor, he'd veto it. George gets testy with Mitt about his answer, which prompts the crowd to jeer George. Mitt gets a laugh when he says "Leave it alone, contraception's working just fine." Paul then plugs the 4th Amendment for privacy rights.

7:40 - Santorum agrees with Mitt that Roe v. Wade should be overturned.

Diane Sawyer then takes forever to plug a Yahoo! question, aaking what your solution is for gay couples if they're against gay marriage. Newt talks about hospital visitation rights but says it's a huge jump to change the definition of the sacrament of marriage.

7:42 - Huntsman says civil unions are fair, that he's a traditionalist with marriage, but he believes in reciprical benefits rights.

7:43 - Josh asks Santorum about gay adoption. Santorum says it's a states-rights issue, but believes marriage is a federal issue, but will not seek any federal law about adoption. "What about those 1800 couples who are already married?" Santorum wants a Constitutional Amendment to define marriage, and therefore the Constitution would say they aren't married.

7:48 - Romney's for state-level benefits to same-sex couples but still wants the definition of marriage to be between a man and a woman.

7:49 - Newt points out the media bias and says how come we're never asked about the bias and bigotry against the Catholic Church? (Applause.)

7:50 - Mitt agrees with what Newt just said.

7:51 - George asks Paul about a possible 3rd-party run. Paul says he doesn't like absolutes, but he has no plans to run as 3rd party candidate.

7:52 - Perry brings up Obama's "war on religion."

7:53 - Huntsman rattles off all of the successes of the US military, and therefore for Afghanistan, it's time to bring our troops home. Mitt waffles on the topic. Huntsman comes back strongly, says the president makes the decision.

7:55 - Newt says we're asking the wrong questions, talks about Pakistan, Libya, we're underestimating all the problems. We need a "fundamentally" new strategy but it's not primarily a military problem.

7:56 - Santorum: "We need a strong president, and Obama's made the wrong decision at every turn, on Iran, on Libya, on Syria" etc. Calls out Huntsman for wanting to leave Afghanistan. Huntsman: "How long do you want to wait?" Santorum: "As long as it takes."

7:58 - Perry: "I would send troops back to Iraq." Says our withdrawal from Iraq as kowtowing to Obama's leftist liberal base. Every soldier that lost their life did so for nothing becuz of this president. Iran's moving in literally at the speed of light.

7:59 - Mitt counters with a more intelligent take on Iraq. Paul says he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon but we vote for a president, not a king. Congress has to declare war, but we went into Afghanistan and Iraq, and they want to go to Syria and can't wait to bomb Iran. Our policy may be well-intended but it has bad consequences.

8:00 - Santorum gives some neocon argument.

Commercials!

8:08 - Romney's asked about roads and bridges, Mitt spins it to a private-sector vs. public-sector argument, praises the entrepreneurial spirit of the American people. Says Obama wants to turn us into a European-style welfare state.

8:09 - Newt says we can't compete with China if we have poor infrastructure. I would have an energy plan that frees us from Iran and Venezuela. If you don't have a systematic infrastructure program, you can't compete.

8:11 - Huntsman says governors know how to pay the bills. He'd strip all loopholes and deductions from tax codes to the tune of $1 trillion.

8:13 - Santorum says he'd keep five deductions - health care, housing, pensions, children and charities. The other side is I'd cut corporate taxes in half, but I'd shrink manufacturing taxes to zero.

8:16 - George asks Mitt "Why not go to zero?" Mitt says of course we need taxes, but the spending keeps going up, we need to shrink government, lower taxes.

Diane Sawyer's starting to remind me of Jessica Lange's character on American Horror Story.

8:19 - Paul goes on his stump rant about the Federal Reserve, ecomonic bubbles, cutting spending, "you can't keep bailing out the debt." There's no plan.

8:20 - Perry: There is a plan! Create jobs! Allow our energy resources to be used, lower regulations.

8:22 - Huntsman brings up how Utah was #1 in job growth while Massachusetts was 47th for the 2nd time tonight. I sense a slight impatience from the audience. Jon boasts again he will get rid of all loopholes and tax deductions

8:24 - George asks Romney where he agrees with Huntsman, and Mitt respectfully declines it and asks himself a question of his own and proceeds to answer it.

8:26 - Newt says he's sure Obama's sincere about his desire to change us to a radical socialist European economy. (Laughs.)

8:28 - Santorum says Republicans should shrink from a phrase Mitt Romney used: "middle class." There are no classes in America. They may be middle income people. It's Obama's job to divide, separate.

8:30 - Romney: "My plan is broader than tax policy." Goes on about America's goods, trading. "We have to do something about regulations."

8:32 - Huntsman said it's nonsense to think you can slap a tariff on China your 1st day in office, as Mitt would do.

8:33 - Mitt: "Jon, you spent the last two years implementing the policies of Obama while the rest of us were trying to get Republicans elected." Romney said he'd tell China they have to play by the rules.

8:34 - Huntsman: Rattles off some Chinese, says what Mitt is advocating might get an applause line, but it would lead to a trade war.

Commercials!

George: What would you be doing on a Saturday night if you weren't running for president?

Perry - I'd be at the shooting range.

Newt - I'd be watching the college basketball championship game.

Santorum - *football*

Newt - Football, right. Sorry.

Santorum - I'd be with my family watching the game.

Romney - Football.

Paul - I'd be reading an economic textbook.

Huntsman - I'd be calling my two boys in the US Navy.

Diane Sawyer thanks us all for watching and to the candidates.

We're done!

We go to Jake Tapper first, and he says we were waiting to see if anyone would lay a glove on Romney, and no one really did. David Muir says the Romney camp is thrilled. Donna Brazile said Democrats think Romney's the weakest of the six candidates. (You know she's lying.) Mary Mataline has clearly had plastic surgery. Okay, that's enough. So how'd they do?

6. RICK PERRY - His first real answer, he tried to tie "hypocrisy" to Ron Paul, which doesn't work. Then he tried to say he wants to put troops back in Iraq, and that Iranians can move at the speed of light. He seemed to be answering as if he was in front of South Carolina voters. "I'd be at the shootin' range."

5. NEWT GINGRICH - The only time we saw his trademark petulant anger was when it was directed at Ron Paul or the bias against the Catholic Church. He debated like a man who knew he'd done horrible damage to his campaign with his nasty concession speech in Iowa. His pandering answer at the end was a flame-out.

4. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed to bring it and he was just okay. He did seem like the most willing to go against Romney, but nothing really stuck. His tax plan didn't seem that great to boast about when compared to Santorum's.

3. RON PAUL - Strong at times, doddering at other times. Those who love his foreign policy tend to hate his domestic policy. Those who love his domestic policy tend to hate his foreign policy. Then there are the libertarians who love both. Paul poked gaping holes in Santorum's claims, and he drew the ire of Santorum and Gingrich.

2. RICK SANTORUM - I hate to say it, but he did pretty well in his new position as the NotRomney. He was able to give longer answers to questions, got more questions, and his supporters are the kind that appreciate his digs against Ron Paul. His nitpicking over "middle class" versus "middle income" was just stupid, but his neocon arguments and his social conservative stances probably help him greatly in South Carolina.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Thanks for coming to the debate, guys. It's been great getting to know you all, and you're all fine individuals. Each of you has some good in you, has issues that I'd agree with. Oh, you're going to attack me directly? Let me slap you down with a smile. This nomination's mine, and there's nothing you can do about it. And none of you will be my vice-presidential pick, but it's cute to see you try.

Rick Santorum's Wrestling Ad

2012-01-04T15:41:00.001-08:00

It wasn't that long ago that Rick boasted of working with Barbara Boxer.
After this ad, he lost his re-election bid 58.6% to 41.3%.

Romney, Santorum win Iowa caucus

2012-01-03T21:58:00.000-08:00

99% of the vote is in. Too close to call. I'm going to bed.

Thoughts on the Iowa Caucus results:

- Jon Huntsman all but insulted Iowa and he still got 742+ votes. Good for him.

- Michelle Bachmann's concession speech was tired and lackluster. She could barely muster an accent when slamming Obama's failed Socialist policies. No candidate has ever won the Ames straw poll only to come in as low as sixth in the caucus. If she doesn't drop out tomorrow, it's because she wants to be in one more debate.

- Rick Perry was sunny in defeat. He read some fanmail and seemed genuinely touched. It also appears like he's going to drop out.

- Newt Gingrich was a complete prick during his concession speech. Blustery, cranky, hypocritical, it reminded me of everything I disliked about him. He blasted negative ads from Mitt Romney while he's planning his own negative-ad campaign blitz tomorrow, but those are only "telling the truth." He slammed Ron Paul's foreign policy as "stunningly" dangerous, and he gushed over Rick Santorum. Newt made it clear he will do whatever he can to support Santorum and stop Romney if he can't win it himself. Newt's going to go down scorched-Earth style. Expect a whisper campaign in South Carolina about Mormons being secret satanists.

- Ron Paul finished in the top three, but darned if I could find anyone talking about on any of the channels as I flipped around.

- Rick Santorum... I do like how he's trying to put a spotlight on manufacturing jobs, but really, I have only this to say to the Iowa GOP: "You have got to be kidding me!"

- Mitt Romney had said for months he wasn't going to compete in Iowa, did not participate in the Ames straw poll, and yet when he decided to go ahead and compete, he may have pulled off the win. The vote's so close it doesn't really matter that much if he actually won or not. Top two was good enough. And now John McCain is going to endorse Romney to help curb this Santorum nonsense. Meanwhile, it's shrewd to have Ann introduce Mitt. She's one of his biggest assets. Mitt's gracious to Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in his speech, and he gives a good one, feels like he's taken bits and pieces from other stump speeches.

- UPDATE: Romney won by 8 votes.

Iowa Caucus has 1% reporting

2012-01-03T17:45:00.000-08:00

FOX NEWS coverage anchored by Bret Baier and Megyn Kelly.

CNN anchored by John King, Anderson Cooper and Wolf Blitzer.

MSNBC coverage anchored by Rachel Maddow, Ed Schultz, Lawrence O'Donnell, Al Sharpton and Steve Schmidt. (Man, this network does not want to be taken seriously at all.)
Early early numbers have it as Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney.

Oh, nope, numbers just changed, now it's Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman. (No mention of Buddy Roemer.)

Iowa Caucus Tomorrow

2012-01-02T15:50:00.000-08:00

The last poll I saw had the top three as Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, all within 5 points of each other. The next three were Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. Jon Huntsman is not participating and has even dissed Iowa, but I'm sure he'll get a vote or two.

So how's the weather?

If Mitt Romney wins, it's over. He'll get New Hampshire, and then South Carolina will throw up a roadblock, but then Mitt will get Florida, and that's all she wrote.

If Ron Paul wins, heads will explode. We'll hear more about Ron Paul being a racist because of his newsletter. We'll hear as president, he would roll over so Iran can pet his tummy, and he won't lift a finger when (not if, when!) Iran annihilates Israel.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum wants to attack Iran now. Not in January 2013. Now! If Santorum wins, I propose the GOP come together and face facts, that Iowa needs to stop going first. Give it to Missouri or Ohio. Personally I think it should rotate every four years the order of the states having their primaries/caucuses. Have a lotto every four years, the spring after the election. Gives each state plenty of time to prepare.

My 10 Political Predictions for 2012

2011-12-31T09:36:00.000-08:00

National

1. The longer the GOP nomination process goes on, the more supporters of Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush will float trial balloons that their person could get the nomination at a brokered convetion.

2. At least ten national columnists will refer to Barack Obama not upgrading his VP to the same mistake George H.W. Bush made in not dropping Dan Quayle.

3. The next of the IACaucus 7 will not drop out until New Hampshire, and it will be Michele Bachmann.

4. Mitt Romney will win the GOP nomination.

5. Marco Rubio will be his Vice-Presidential pick.

Utah-centric

6. Orrin Hatch will have to fight to keep his senate seat in a Primary fight.

7. Gary Herbert will have to fight to keep his governorship in a Primary fight.

8. Ethan Millard will regularly tweet withering comments about the corrupt cowardly delegate process.

9. Rocky Anderson will jump upon a donkey and charge toward a windmill.

10. Jim Matheson will narrowly hold on to his Congressional seat even though it's now in the 4th.

GOP InTrade Watch - 12/26/11

2011-12-26T08:36:00.000-08:00

From InTrade

1. (1) - Mitt Romney 69.6%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 8.3%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 4.7%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 2.5%
5. (5) - Rick Perry - 2.4%
6. (7) - Rick Santorum - 1.4%
7. (6) - Michele Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (-) - Jeb Bush - .8%

Why did Jeb Bush show up? Because of the trail balloon floated that if the Republicans have a brokered convention, Jeb Bush could sweep in and win the nomination.

I'm guessing Ron Paul has slipped due to the flack over the racially-tinged articles in the newsletter that bore his name.

Paul up in Iowa, Mitt up in New Hampshire

2011-12-21T06:18:00.000-08:00

Nate Silver's awesome 538 blog has current projections as follows for the state caucuses and primaries. Obviously numbers change every few days but it's interesting to see where things stand right now.

IOWA

Ron Paul - 25.4%
Mitt Romney - 21.1%
Newt Gingrich - 15.5%
Rick Perry - 13.8%
Michele Bachmann - 10.9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Mitt Romney - 36.5%
Ron Paul - 19.9%
Newt Gingrich - 19.1%
Jon Huntsman - 13.5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA

Newt Gingrich - 37.9%
Mitt Romney - 23.2%
Ron Paul - 10.2%
Michele Bachmann - 9.8%
Rick Perry - 7.4%

FLORIDA

Newt Gingrich - 48.4%
Mitt Romney - 26.4%
Ron Paul - 7%
Rick Perry - 5.4%
Michele Bachmann - 5.3%

It's now a three-candidate race, although at this point I would not bet against Mitt Romney getting the nomination. I would also point out that not in a single state does Rick Santorum appear in the top five. Hopefully after he comes in sixth in Iowa, he drops out. In fact, whoever finishes fifth in Iowa between Perry and Bachmann should drop out too. Huntsman should stay in until New Hampshire, but if he can't crack the top three there, time for him to go too.

Newt Gingrich Wants to Be the First US Dictator

2011-12-18T20:52:00.000-08:00

How else can you explain his motives when he says stuff like this? Isn't this something Hugo Chavez would do?

Fox News Iowa Debate

2011-12-15T22:16:00.001-08:00

Fox doesn't have a three-minute Michael Bay trailer for the upcoming debate. Must've learned from CNN's overkill.

First question to Newt Gingrich by Bret Baier. Republicans say you're smart, a big thinker, but worry deeply about your electability, saying Mitt Romney is the safer choice. Newt compares himself to Reagan. Baier then brings up how Mitt called him an "unreliable" conservative. Newt then touts his record for 30 years of conservatism, balanced budgets, got Republicans to majority for first time in 40 years. [Single-handedly!]

Megyn Kelly then asks Ron Paul how he could possibly win the nomination and will he pledge tonight to not run as third party. Paul says just about anyone on stage would be better than Obama. She then asks Rick Santorum why he's "failed to catch fire" with voters. "Well, we hope to catch fire with voters in Iowa..." and then he spins off to his usual talking points.

Chris Wallace says "many of our viewers" say they're supporting Newt over you (Mitt Romney) because he's tougher; what say you? Mitt talks about how government doesn't create jobs; the private sector does. I know from my work in the private sector, from my successes and failures, how to make this economy work.

Wallace then asks Michelle Bachmann about the perception that she's too conservative. She touts her across-the-board appeal.

Neil Cavuto asks Rick Perry about his debate skills. Rick Perry says he's having fun and he can't wait to debate Obama; he'll show up early! He then compares himself to Tim Tebow. I'm not kidding.

Cavuto then almost sarcastically asks Jon Huntsman about why he won't sign the tax pledge. Huntsman says he won't sign any silly pledges, and he won't attend a Donald Trump debate. He then pauses whith any eyebrow like he expected to get a pop from the crowd but it only brings polite applause. He soldiers on about the trust deficit in this country, says we're getting screwed as Americans, we need term limits and to stop Congress from filing on out and lobbying.

The problem with these debates is most of the answers are the same. If you missed the first twelve, they want to make sure you get to hear their talking point this time, goldarnit!

Baier then gives each candidate 30 seconds to answer: how would you answer possible govt shutdown?

Santorum - Do what leaders do, tell a narrative, we come together to solve problems. People voted for Obama in 2008 because they believed in him. Americans need a president who believes in them. [Good line.]

Perry - We can't have an on-the-job training president. I am appalled Congress came up with a super-committee. (Yeah, Republicans and Democrats came up with that gem, Rick...)

Romney - We need more than 30 seconds. What is leadership? I was governor of state with 85% Democrats. To get anything done, I had to get respect of Speaker. We need to have leader who knows how to lead. I've had four different leadership posts.

Gingrich - Leadership is key. When you have a "Saul Alinksy radical" acting as "Campaigner-in-Chief" the Constitution can't work under those conditions. I worked with Bill Clinton to get things done.

Paul - Two factions in DC. One wants warfare, one wants welfare. Get each to cut some so the other will cut some.

Bachmann - I would have called all 535 Congressmen to come in and sit down during debt crisis. "No new taxes!"

Huntsman - Touts his flat tax passing in Utah and how he almost got 80% of the vote in his re-election bid. (Yes, he was a popular governor.)

Commercials!

Chris Wallace asks Mitt about Newt's comment that Mitt should give his millions back from the companies he bankrupted.

Romney - It's a great opportunity for us, becuz Obama will use the same attack tactic. Yes, some failed, but if you look at all the businesses we worked with, more of them succeeded. In the real world, some things don't work. I've learned the lessons.

Chris then asks Newt about his $1.6 million from Freddie Mac. Newt says he actually asked for more regulation, said he was a private citizen, contrasts it with Chris Dodd getting sweetheart deals from Countrywide.

Paul - He has a different definition of the "private sector" than I have. [BAM!] Paul sides with Mitt. Says colluding of big government and big business leads to fascism. [Don't oversell it!]

Newt - Talk to people at credit unions; there are some good govt-sponsored programs. Medicare, Medicaid. "I did no lobbying of any kind for any organization." [WHAT?!?!]

Bachmann - We know he cashed paychecks from Freddie Mac, and I am shocked listening to him, defending Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, big difference between them and credit unions. The speaker had his hand out for $1.6 million and scammed senior members of Congress to keep the scam going. [BAM!]

Newt - What she just said is factually not true. I never lobbied in any way.

Bachmann - PolitiFact said everything I said was true. You took $1.6 million; you don't need to be in the technical definition of lobbying to be influence-peddling. It's shocking.

Newt - My policy is to break up Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. I never once changed my position becuz of payment. I only chose to work with people whose values I shared.

Cavuto asks Newt about Paul Ryan's budget plan, calling it "right-wing social enineering." Newt says we need to communicate to the American people, says he liked Mitt's adjustments to the Ryan plan. Cavuto asks if Romney would like to respond to that compliment.

Romney says "Thank you" and goes on to talk about our natl balance sheet, commends Wyden/Ryan for coming together.

Cavuto calls out Paul on putting in money for his own district in natl budgets. Paul says your question should also point out I've never voted for an earmark. I look at it like tax deductions. If they're there, sure I'll apply for them, but as president I'd want to get rid of them. This whole principle of budgeting is mixed up. Cavuto talks over Paul's applause to say you're trying to have your cake and eating it too. Paul says if everyone did what I did, there'd be no earmarks and the budget would be balanced.

Cavuto turns to Perry, quotes how he vetoed bills and kept spending under control, but according to an Austin paper, he was guilty of doing what he campaigned against? First of all, don't believe everything you read in the Austin paper [noticeable chill], and then goes back to Newt, says we need to overhaul Washington DC, and the idea that Newt can't tell the difference between lobbying and advising is telling, says we need a part-time Congress. 140 days every other year. (Applause.)

Cavuto turns to Huntsman. How would you respond to China's "childish" move of putting tariffs on American SUVs and luxury vehicles? Well, the problem's all over. It's part North Korea, part Iran, part Burma, etc. etc. Invite some Chinese dissdents to the embassy. We need shared values infused into the relationship. That's democracy, human rights, tolerance to religion, and so much more.

Cavuto asks Santorum if he'd support tax holiday. Yeah, we need to get our taxes down. I promise to repeal every single ObamaCare regulation.

Romney brings up Solyndra. Let markets guide the economy. I think manufacturing will come back, like Rick S. talks about. We have extraordinary energy potential in this country. Our president thinks this country is in decline. It is if he's president. It won't be if I'm president. (Big applause.)

Megyn Kelly questions Newt about wanting to subpoena judges for decisions they make. Does that ruin checks and balances. "The courts have become grotesquely dictatorial." [Your mission: use that phrase in casual conversation in the next 24 hours. Go!] They're "frankly arrogant" in their misreading of the American people. Just like Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln and FDR, I will take on the judiciary if it didn't restrict itself from what it was doing. Yes, he's compared himself to five presidents so far.

Kelly asks Bachmann about activist courts. [I notice at this point something looks different about Megyn Kelly. Hair? Make-up? Not sure.]

Bachmann says the Congress and the President need to take their authority back from the court system. We need to take the Constitution back. I'd only appoint judges who believe in the original intent of the Constitution. Paul says Congress can impeach, but I'd really question subpoenas against judges. Yes, this can be frustrating, but if you say you're going to get rid of courts becuz they didn't rule a way you like, that's a huge can of worms. Subpoenas against judges harms checks and balances.

Kelly then questions why Mitt appointed so many judges who were Democrats or independents. Mitt says he doesn't appoint judges, he nominates them. But he points out one of the most important jobs of the President is to appoint Supreme Court justices. he sides with Paul on questioning Congress subpoena judges, "becuz the only thing more screwed up than justices is Congress." (laughs from audience). We don't call it "we the judges" we call it "we the people." We can impeach, we can pass amendments. We have the ability to reign in activist judges.

Santorum - "I'm the only one on this panel that did it" referring to reigning in activist judges. Says his favorite current Supreme Court judge is Thomas.

Perry - Wants term limits on Supreme Court justices, these "unaccountable legislators in robes." Likes Alito, Roberts, Thomas. Pick one. kelly says "Would you pick one please?"

Romney - Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Scalia.

Newt - Agrees with Romney's list.

Paul - from my view they're all good and they're all bad. Our country split freedom up into two pieces - personal and economic. The judges and Congress thinks it's two issues.

Bachmann - Scalia tops my list. Also Roberts, Thomas, Alito.

Huntsman - I'm optimistic about this country becuz of the rule of law. Governors have experience selecting judges. I like Roberts and Alito.

Commercials!

Paul - My Iranian policy would be much better. There's no UN evidence of Iran getting a weapon. I fear another Iraq coming. War propaganda. I fear we'll get a prez who overreacts and bombs Iran. Even Israel says it wouldn't make any sense taking them out becuz they might have a weapon. What did we do with Libya? We talked them out of their nuclear weapon, and then we killed him. Baier pushes back. Paul says your question seems to be "When are we going to bomb Iran?"

Santorum says Iran is ruled by a radical theocracy, mutual assured destruction worked on the USSR, but Iran wants martyrdom. Their objective is to create a calamity; it's what their theology teaches. They hate us becuz of who we are and what we believe. We should be working with Israel right now in working on taking out Iran's facilities.

Baier asks Romney about how Obama asked Iran for our drone back. (Laughs from audience.) Mitt - "Timidity invites aggression from other people." Our foreign policy based on "pretty please"? (Chuckles from audience.) America has to lead the free world, and the free world has to lead the entire world. The right course for America is to strengthen our country, our values, our families, and our military.

Bachmann - Obama was given on a silver platter victory in Iraq, and he's chosen intentionally to lose the peace. "With all due respect" to Paul, I've never heard a more dangerous natl security answer . (Cheers and boos.) Iran will use a nuclear weapon to wipe Israel off the map. Their mission is to spread jihad across the world.

Paul - To say all Muslims are the same is dangerous. They don't want to kill us becuz of who we are; they want us to stop bombing them. Why do you want another war? Carelessly flouting.

Bachmann - Careless underreacting to let a madman to get a nuclear weapon. IEIA report says they're months away from getting a weapon.

Paul - That's not true. If you think today's a dangerous world, think of when I was drafted in 1962. Kennedy and Khruschev talked without nuclear war. This endless attitude of going to war everywhere.

Baier asks if Newt would leave the UN. No, but we could reduce our reliance on it. We have every obligation to tell the truth on how corrupt the UN bureaucracy is.

Huntsman - The UN serves a useful purpose in peacekeeping and some humanitarian work, but I hate the anti-Americanism, the anti-Israel sentiments. First, we need a new foreign policy. We're still trapped in the Cold War mentality. Our core here is weak. Our economy is broken. Second, (ding!) Baier: You're out of time. Huntsman makes his second point anyway. baier dings him again.

Perry - I've called for a no-fly zone over Syria. They're Iran's partner, they connected at the hip. This administration has badly bungled the Middle East. He led from behind in Libya. he was totally weak with Iran in asking for our drone back.

Cavuto asks Newt about Obama's opposition to the Keystone pipeline. Newt says I'm accused of using language that's too strong, so I've been standing here editing. (laughs). the Canadian PM has said if you don't want to create this pipeline, I'll put it straight west through Vancouver and ship it to China. I'm using mild words here. It's "utterly irrational" for Obama to kill American jobs and reduce our access to energy. It makes no sense to any rational American. (applause) Cavuto: "No offense, sir, but you didn't answer my question." Attach it to the middle-class tax-cut. We're not backing down when we're right and you're totally wrong.

Huntsman - There will always be a balancing act. We need to fuel our future. We need to get rid of our heroin-like addiction to imported oil. We need to disrupt the oil monopoly. We need a president who understands the delicate balance. [Felt like he danced aroudn that one.]

Bachmann - Obama's entire calculus is on re-election. The radical environmentalists threatened to not support him if he passed Keystone. As prez, I would've put Keystone online immediately.

Cavuto points out Perry gave $7 billion in tax savings to oil. Perry points out this is the anniversary of the signing of the Bill of Rights. I like the Tenth. If a state wants to put tax policies in place that makes them more competitive, that's their right. Giovt in DC shouldn't pick winners and losers. (But he's arguing that governors should be able to pick winners and losers.)

Commercials!

Megyn Kelly asks Perry about Operation Fast & Furious. So far no evidence Atty. Gnrl. Eric Holder knew about it. Are you politicizing this? Perry says if there's an operation like Fast & Furious and the atty general didn't know about it, he should re-sign immediately. I've been dealing with border issues for 11 years.

Santorum - Agrees Holder needs to go. There are jihadist trainign camps in central and south America, and we know they're planning attacks on the US. Obama has embraced scoundrels in central and south America, like Chavez and Ortega.

Kelly asks Romney about the 11 million illegals he said need to go to their country of origin first before becoming US citizens, but he also said we're not going to just round em up and ship em out. How does that work? We'll give them ID cards for those who come here legally. When they apply for a job, they need to show that job. newt's suggested something similar. You say to illegals you can't work here. You need to get in line.

Newt - We mostly agree on that, but someone whp's been here 25 years should get some consideration. I'd drop the fed lawsuits against states.

Huntsman - We don't need to pander. Pro-growth, strong values. these appeal to hispanics/Latinos. but look at the numbers of those coming across the borders. There's nothing to come for! We've got to secure the borders, of course, but let's not lose sight of the fact that legal immigration is pro-growth for this country. Remake our visa system. This is an economic development opportunity.

Chris Wallace, whom Joe Scarborough said loathes Mitt Romney, asks this question: "You've changed your position in the last 10 years on abortion, on gay rights, on guns, you say keeping an open mind is a strength, but some of your critics say every one of these moves is to your political advantage, when you were running in MA you took liberal positions, now running for president you take conservative positions. Is that principle or is it just politics?" [Wow, Chris, really?] Mitt takes exception to your list there. I've been the same on gay rights. On abortion I changed my mind. I studied the issue. I've learned over time, like Reagan and HW Bush, where I've been wrong, I've changed my mind. I've always been for the 2nd Amendment. Chris in gotcha question mode lists off positions on gay rights, abortion, gun rights. Romney defends each position, and by the end you can tell he's a little upset with Chris. [Shorter Mitt: I'm going to be the nominee, Chris, and you can't stop me.]

Chris then asks Santorum if he's persuaded. [Eye roll.] Might as well have said, "Rick, attack Romney for me." Santorum points out only the governor and legislature can change marriage law. Mitt had choice to go with "the court or the Constitution." He chose the court. He personally handed out gay-marriage licenses. We're not talking about discrimination, we're talking about securing values.

Mitt - That's a very novel interpretation of what the MA Supreme Court did. I fought to put in a amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman. I've been a champion of protecting traditional marriage.

Chris Wallace asks Bachmann about abortion. She says the GOP can't get the issue of life wrong. Newt said he'd campaign for Republicans who were for partial-birth abortion.

Newt - Sometimes Bachmann gets her facts wrong.

Bachmann - I think it's outrageous to say I don't have my facts right when as a matter of fact, I do. I am a serious candidate for the presidency. [If you have to say it...] Gingrich said it.

Newt - I don't see how you're going to govern if you're going to run around trying to figure out who to purge.

Baier mentions 11th Commendment from Reagan while some audience member complains he hasn't asked about the Federal Reserve.

Santorum - We have a responsibility to vet the candidates. Let's find out who can stand up.

Perry - There was an NFL player said if you're not getting your tail kicked, you're not playing at a high-enough level. I'd like to thank these folks on stage for letting me play at a high-enough level.

Romney - We can take it. Obama's going to have a billion dollars to go after me or whoever the nominee is.

Gingrich - If you look at my website, my debates, I go to the American people with big ideas. These six are friends of mine, and all would be a better president than Obama.

Paul - The media has a responsibility and we have a responsibility. We have to get this information out. There are some things below the belt. I don't like taking things out of context. If we disagree on an issue, we should expose it.

Bachmann - It's the same with Reagan. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Unquestionably we're worse off under Obama.

Huntsman - I actually worked for Reagan. Debate is good. It must be respectful and vigorous. It will lead to trust. This type of debate will elevate the nominee.

And that's a wrap!

So.... how'd they do...

　

　

7. RICK SANTORUM - He had one good line but otherwise was irrelevant on the stage. Most of his questions were about other candidates. Rick can boast he's been to every county in Iowa, but it's never he's stuck in sixth, in front of the only candidate who's said he's not competing in Iowa and only comes for the debates.

6. JON HUNTSMAN - He may be in Iowa, but he's debating to show New Hampshire he's their guy. I don't think he did enough to stand out. He needed to increase momentum, and this felt like a wheel-spinning performance, repeating many of the thigns he's said before, even danced around a couple questions. And he's not setting himself up for 2016. If the GOP nominee loses, 2016 will have Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Marco Rubio, John Thune, Jeb Bush, etc., plenty of options.

5. RICK PERRY - Relaxed, friendly, happy to be there, lucky to be there. Why is he still here? I thought the Tim Tebow reference was goofy, but maybe some evangelicals heard it and went "One of us! One of us!" Was giddy in attacking Congress and the Supreme Court, checks and balances be damned.

4. NEWT GINGRICH - Tonight was an effective microcosm example of why Newt's debate skills are good enough that he could win the GOP nomination but then get eviscerated in the general. The crowd was most enthusiastic when he attacked the judiciary, talking about subpoenas for judges, banning courts, etc. Good grief, really? But he was weakest in defending his Freddy Mac connections. His arguing over what is technically "lobbying" felt like Clinton's dance on the head of a pin over "is."

3. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Went after Newt Gingrich the strongest, made points that needed to be made. Stoof up for herself when Newt appeared dismissive. Also acted as surrogate for the anti-Ron Paul contingent when talking about how dangerous Iran is. Probably her best performance in months. Maybe she'll take fourth in Iowa after all.

2. RON PAUL - He can still win Iowa. His Iran answers didn't play to the crowd, and I know many conservatives who like his domestic ideas but loathe his foreign ones. He got in the best slam of the night on Newt.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Mitt did just what he needed to do. He was magnanimous with Newt, letting the lesser-tier candidates do the attacking. He defended his positions well and kept the focus on Obama. He stood up to Chris Wallace, and not in the Newt way ("media malpractice!"). Mitt is demonstrating he does have the strength to stand up for himself in a debate but kill with kindness. Maybe he won't win Iowa, but this may be the step-stool to a New Hampshire landslide.

(Until the next debate. Who am I kidding?)

GOP InTrade Pre-Debate

2011-12-15T17:12:00.000-08:00

From InTrade.com:

December 5
1. - Mitt Romney - 47%
2. - Newt Gingrich - 30.2%
3. - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
4. - Ron Paul - 7%
5. - Rick Perry - 2.8%
6. - Michele Bachmann - 2.5%
7. - Rick Santorum - 1.4%

December 15 (pre-debate)
1. - Mitt Romney - 58.3%
2. - Newt Gingrich - 17.4%
3. - Ron Paul - 8.2%
4. - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
5. - Rick Perry - 3.6%
6. - Michelle Bachmann - 1.7%
7. - Rick Santorum - 1.1%

UPDATE:
December 15 (post-debate)
1. - Mitt Romney - 61.3%
2. - Newt Gingrich - 17%
3. - Ron Paul - 7.5%
4. - Jon Huntsman - 6.1%
5. - Rick Perry - 3.6%
6. - Michelle Bachmann - 1.6%
7. - Rick Santorum - .7%

Newt actually came within 11 points last week, but now the traders are going back to Romney. Meanwhile Paul's jumped Huntsman, and it looks very likely Paul could win Iowa.

For the debate I would hope Paul's able to address Pres. Obama and Congress passing a law that makes it legal to indefinite detain U.S. citizens.

Huntsman-Gingrich Lincoln-Douglas "Debate"

2011-12-12T21:22:00.000-08:00

- Jon Huntsman called Pakistan the second candidate for failed-nation state, behind North Korea, and says our relationship with India is key for that region.

- Newt Gingrich said we rely too much on foreign countries for our international intelligence.

- Gingrich said if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, it's time for a regime change.

- Huntsman said Iran will be the transcendant threat for this decade, not Afghanistan or Iraq. Said we missed an opportunity during the Persian Spring of 2009.

- Huntsman can't abide a nuclear Iran either. Says you'd have to expect Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt to get their own nuclear weapons shortly thereafter.

It wasn't really a debate; it was more of a co-lecture, a discussion that dealt mostly with foreign policy where they agreed on 90% of what they talked about. Overall, Jon Huntsman sounded very presidential, and Newt Gingrich continued to display his fondness of polysyllabic adverbs. But Gingrich wasn't out to beat Huntsman, he was out to elevate him so he'll take more votes from Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.

ABC GOP Debate in Iowa

2011-12-10T22:07:00.001-08:00

For some reason, our local ABC station showed the first seven minutes of some Primetime America special, and then suddenly it went live to the debate.

RON PAUL - "-you can't get back to economic growth again." He's talking about debt and TARP, but I'm going to have to play catch-up here. He concludes he's going to cut one trillion from the budget next year.

RICK PERRY - I'm going to do a flat tax of 20%. Talks about drawing a diagram of how we got into this problem and says there's a direct line between Washington and Wall Street, mentions the $7 trillion we didn't know the Fed was giving the banks.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - Plugs Cain by saying we can have a "Win, win, win" plan. Wants to make the bottom 47% pay taxes.

RICK SANTORUM - Starts by showing off the names of building and cities he's visited in Iowa, and he ties it to his plan to revitalize manufacturing.

Diane Sawyer points out Mitt Romney's the only one who committed to a number on how many jobs he's create during his first term. Anyone else want to do that? Santorum says we can't really give a number, all we can do is lower taxes, less regulation, a litigation environment that makes us competitive, etc., etc.

What the heck happened to Diane's left eye?

Question on the payroll tax which will go up in 2012. Bachmann says they never should have cut it, she fought against it. (Whiplash...) Romney says he doesn't want to raise taxes on the middle class, but let's recognize it's just a band-aid.

Split-screen with Perry, and Perry's looking at Romney like he's learning something. "Wow, that's how the economy works?"

Santorum wants the payroll tax cut to expire because it'll pay for Social Security. Paul says quitting the spending will save Social Security, then complains about our embassy in Baghdad as something that can be cut.

George Stephanopoulos beings up the question of electability. He quotes Newt saying he was the most electable, which Mitt laughs at, then he goes off on his private-sector experience. Says there are many areas where they disagree, and George asks him to name some. There's about five seconds where Mitt teeters on the tightrope, but then he's able to rattle off he disagrees with Newt's desire for a lunar colony (brilliant!), child labor laws (brilliant!), and he has some more, but that was effective. Newt's response?

"The only reason you didn't become a career politician is becuz you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994." Some cheers and boos from the audience. Newt says he grew up in a generation when NASA was real, when young Americans could dream, he wants the space program to be privatized and revitalized. On to child labor: let the poor kids work part-time; they could use the money. Rips on greedy NY janitor union.

Mitt says it's true he may have been a career politician if he'd beat Ted Kennedy. He also says if he'd gone to the NFL like he wanted to as a kid, he'd have been a career football star. (Good line.) Says losing to Teddy was great becuz it gave him mroe years of prvate-sector experience.

George brings up Ron Paul's "serial hypocrisy" ad. Paul rattles off single-payer system for health care, his TARP support, his money he got from Freddie Mac. Says anyone would have trouble competing with him on consistency.

Newt says you said the economy was due to artificial interest rates, and I'm with you on auditing the Fed. As to Freddie Mac, I wasn't a lobbyist. I was advising them, I was in the private sector, which earns a laugh.

Bachmann complains about Newt's office being on K Street, says he's the epitome of establishment. She says she's the real constitutional conservative. She's 55 years old; she's spent 50 years in the real world as a businesswoman. (um...) She slams Newt and Mitt for individual mandate. She calls them Newt Romney six times.

Newt says in a lot of ways, what she said isn't true. She says Newt Romney has too much in common with Obama; she's the polar opposite of Obama on everything. Mitt says I know Newt Gingrich, Newt Gingrich is a friend of mine, and I promise you we are not clones. Mitt invokes the Tenth Amendment in how he'd deal with ObamaCare.

Perry says Michelle hit the nail on the head, says Mitt and Newt were for individual mandates. Perry says he can stand on the stage and call ObamaCare an abomination. Mitt demonstrates his masterful ability of counterpunching. By the time he's done explaining the differences between what Massachusetts did and what ObamaCare does, Perry looks like he regrets picking the fight, and THEN Mitt rubs it in Rick's face he had a "mandate" in Texas for all 12-year-olds to get vaccines. Rick says he read Mitt's book and he was for a mandate. Mitt bets $10,000 that is not in there, and Rick says he's not a betting man. Mitt says "Well, there you go."

You can tell Mitt likes Newt more than Rick.

Bachmann says do we really believe either of these two will repeal ObamaCare? ("Yep!" "Yep!") Laughs from audience. Santorum says he agrees with Bachmann, but she fought and lost. He fought and won when he was in Congress. Bachmann says she'll make sure she gets 13 more Republican senators elected.

Commercials! One of them is Fred Thompson for reverse mortgages. Rick Perry will be doing that commercial in four years.

George S. asks if marital fidelity should be considered. Perry says he made a vow to his wife and a vow to God. Says if you cheat on your wife, you'll cheat on your business partner. Hammers Newt on it w/o directly saying Newt. Santorum says it's not a disqualifier but it should be a factor. Paul says you shouldn't have to talk about it, been married for 54 years, but if marriage vows are important, what about your oath of office?

George asks why Mitt's first Iowa ad was on his family, and Mitt said it was in response to an Obama PAC ad. Mentions he has 16 grandkids. Bachmann said the founders only looked at "what's the measure of a man?" Or woman in my case. Very interesting that Newt's the last one allowed to answer this.

Newt says it's a real issue. "People have to render judgment." But he says he's gone to God for forgiveness, but now I'm a 68-year-old grandfather.

Diane wants to talk about immigration but spends 20 seconds stipulating that all the candidates agree they need to secure the borders. Newt wants to make it easier to learn English. Then he and Diane quibble over how long a person's been here, if they can get around illegal immigration laws.

Why isn't Jake Tapper help moderate this?

Mitt blasts amnesty in all forms; no favoritism.

Perry's next. (My wife sits next to me, sees Perry and says, "Oh, he hasn't dropped out yet?") Diane asks him about illegal immigrants in our military. Perry says securing the border is the key. Perry says we already have enough immigration laws on the books, says we need to simply enforce.

Paul gets a question about Palestine. He tows his non-intervention line, says we need to stop being the policemen of the world. Newt says Palestine launches rockets into Israel every day but Obama's trying to pressure them into peace. Newt sounds pro-World War III, the US and Israel vs. the world. Mitt sounds about the same, stand with the Israeli people! Newt and Mitt quibble here about speaking for Israel. Mitt underlines how Newt can say incendiary things. Newt compares himself to Reagan, when Reagan told the truth, calling the USSR the evil empire.

Bachmann first visited Israel in 1974. Tells a rather longwinded story about how Palestinian schools teach their kids that Jews are swine and descend from apes. Santorum says you have to speak the truth but with prudence. [We're now interrupted by five seconds of a Papa John's commercial.]

Perry calls it a minor issue, then blasts Obama for taking the worst of the two choices, actually he had three. Says the president is the problem, not what Newt said. (During applause Perry seems to ask Santorum about the difference between two and three.)

Commercials!

Perry gets to talk about his upbringing. Grew up dirt poor. Says as a "27-year-old boy... well, I was a grown man by then."

Romney says yeah, I didn't grow up poor, but my dad grew up poor and he made sure we understood the value of money.

Paul says his family was poor but he didn't know it. Says he worked his way through college.

Santorum says he was blessed to have a mother and a father, had a sense of security, uses it to segue-way to how the American family is breaking down.

Bachmann takes on the bank bailouts and TARP, then mentions she was born in Iowa, but her parents got divorced, so she gets the plight of single moms.

George S. wants to bring this back to the federal mandate for health care. Mitt says let states do what they want to do. Newt says we need to "fundamentally" change health care, it's getting more and more expensive.

Diane S. goes on about health-care, and I should mention that anytime Daine Sawyer speaks, she seems to think this is all about her. George S. is doing much better at just getting the questions out.

Paul says we need to stop looking to government to take care of everything.

Perry says people are sick of Washington DC, says we should go to part-time Congress, cut their pay in half. (How would he actually accomplish that?)

Commercials!

George's last question: what have you learned from one of your opponents?

Santorum said he listened to Newt's tapes and it inspired him. (Wife points out here there's something Nicolas Cage-y about Santorum.) Points out all the elections he's won and leaves out the big one he's lost.

Perry said Paul intrigued him about auditing the Federal Reserve, but he doesn't miss this opportunity to personally address some Iowa poiliticians.

Romney says each displays leadership qualities but notices he only sees the Ron Paul signs when they come to these.

Gingrich says he's inspired by the current Iowa governor. He also plugs Rick Perry's tenth amendment views and Rick Santorum's courage on Iran. (Name two candidates Newt's not worried about surging.)

Paul says never give up on your opposition and he's delighted Perry's come around on the Fed. (Big laughs.)

Bachmann panders for Herman Cain votes.

Debate's over. Cut to Jake Tapper and company pointing out that Mitt was right but acting like Victorian women clutching their pearls that Mitt would dare bet $10,000 that he's right. "We should point out that $10,000 is 3 months salary for the average Iowan." Are you freaking kidding me? Perry's a millionaire. He can handle it. And he was WRONG! That's the point. Matt Dowd says Mitt lost and Newt won, and Michelle Bachmann drew blood. Leslie Sanchez wisely points out it's not a winner for Bachmann to keep bringing up Cain.

Okay, enough of them. What did I see?

7. DIANE SAWYER - Droned on and on, taking other people's airtime.

6. RICK PERRY - I didn't see anything that would make Iowans turn back to him.

5. RICK SANTORUM - Didn't whine about he doesn't get questions. So, there's that.

4. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Her Newt Romney moniker was cute, but yeah, why is she fighting so hard for Cain voters?

3. MITT ROMNEY - I thought he did pretty good, but they're going to make a big deal out of that $10,000 bet. The problem with these debates is most people didn't watch it, they just watch what the news says about it, and so for that, he never should have offered the bet. I thought his best dig at Newt when he referred to himself as not being a bomb-thrower, figuratively or literally.

2. NEWT GINGRICH - When other candidates have been in the NotRomney front-runner slot, they've crumbled. Rick Perry, Herman Cain... and while the potential was there to score points, most of them didn't seem to sink into the room. It's obscene that Newt keeps insisting he wasn't a lobbyist but when you look at what he did for Freddie Mac and ethanol and the health-care industry... I can't help but notice the word "ethanol" never came up. But when the adultery question came up, Santorum oversold and by the time it got to Newt, he'd won the moment.

1. RON PAUL - Jovial, predictable. Still could easily steal Iowa.

Rick Perry commits political suicide

2011-12-07T15:58:00.001-08:00

GOP InTrade Watch - 12/5/11

2011-12-05T13:50:00.001-08:00

As of December 5.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 47%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 30.2%
3. (3) - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
4. (4) - Ron Paul - 7%
5. (6) - Rick Perry - 2.8%
6. (7) - Michele Bachmann - 2.5%
7. (8) - Rick Santorum - 1.4%
8. (5) - Herman Cain - .2%

The moneychangers still like Romney but not as much as they used to.

The field's changed since Cain dropped out. Romney has been severely damaged by Gingrich's ascent. Romney's at his lowest since October 1. Gingrich was actually up to 37% a few days ago, but his enemies are starting to get louder (George Will disembowelled him on ABC's This Week). Huntsman and Paul are hovering. Paul's waiting for an Iowa boost, and Huntsman for a New Hampshire boost if Newt would just hurry up and implode already.

In watching bits and pieces of Fox News the past week or so, and hearing parts of Rush driving to and from work, it seems they really don't want Romney, but they're not thrilled about Gingrich either. I think Rush wants Perry or Bachmann or Santorum to get the nomination, but Gingrich would be his fourth choice. And Fox News is about the same.

Heck, the other day Glenn Beck said if one of these candidates could turn out to be the next George Washington, it'd be Rick Santorum. #facepalm

One Sunday talking-head (can't remember who at this moment) said, in defending Perry, that we put too much emphasis on the debates. I don't think so. Voters are very cognizant of the importance of debates. It can underline strengths and expose weaknesses. (Look at how poorly Perry and Cain have done at foreign policy questions.) They remember the Barack Obama / John McCain debates of 2008. Obama was fresh, new and energized; McCain was the old grump who wouldn't even look at "that one." They remember the George W. Bush / Al Gore debates of 2000, too. Bush was the guy who could relate to folks; Gore was the robot who couldn't stop sighing into the microphone.

So glad we're finally down to seven candidates. Bring on the next debate!

Huckabee Debate Forum

2011-12-03T23:36:00.001-08:00

HUCKABEE

Wow, looks like Huck's put back on all the weight he lost when running for president in 2008. Huck will be the moderator, and aiding in the questions will be three ravenously ambitious state attorneys general.

I honestly love the explanation and the set-up of this format. Looking forward to how it will go, all snarking aside. Also believe it was a mistake for Jon Huntsman to skip this. First each questioner gets a chance to crow.

Scott Pruitt - OK - Lets us know he doesn't believe Obama respects the principles of the Constitution.

Pam Bondi - FL - Obama's trying to undermine our Constitution. What will fix our problems is a conservative Republican who shares our values.

Ken Cuccinelli - VA - Also suing the fed govt "to protect our Constitution" aka ObamaCare.

NEWT GINGRICH

7:05 - Pam starts, big grin, says his "stand on immigration could lead to more illegal immigration." Advocates jury of peers on illegal immigrants (?), wants to implement secure borders and guest-worker program. Pam: "MY concern is putting friends and neighbors in charge of judging." (Man, are they going to insert themselves into the conversation like this all night?) Newt points out the founders supported juries over judges because they didn't always trust judges.

7:08 - Ken: "Why should Constitutional conservatives LIKE ME trust you... individual mandate, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae." Newt says Heritage came up with individual mandate as a way of blocking HillaryCare, but then he speeds to say "sitting on a couch with Nancy Pelosi is the dumbest thing I've done in years." I testified against Al Gore on climate change. As Speaker we balanced the budget, did welfare reform, "vigorous" tenth Amendment defender.

7:10 - Okay, Ken refers to himself again in the follow-up question. I was worried a Donald Trump debate might be self-aggrandizing but I'm already fed up with these attorneys and one of them hasn't even had his turn. Ken, Pam, this is not about you. "How will you stick to shrinking the fed govt?" I've done it in Reagan's Congress and as Speaker... 'But how will you as President?" I'm giving you my experience to show I can be trusted. The Tea Party needs to understand you can't get everything you want by just appointing good people, it takes a lot of work.

Commercials! For Dragon Tattoo movie, Verizon, Geico, Advil, Sam Adams beer, Salvation Army.

7:14 - Scott: "Obama seems to think DC has all the answers to our natl problems. Can you name some natl problems that neither the president nor Congress should solve?" Education, most of DC bureaucracy should be dismantled, Medicaid should go back to the states, replace the EPA with something that has "economic rationality." Tenth Amendment talks about the states and the citizens. Shrinking DC depts requires growing local citizenship. (Scott didn't refer to himself once. Nice.)

7:16 - Newt slams a judge in San Antonio who bans the use of the words "God, invocation, benediction" at a graduation ceremony and said if his order was violated, the superintendent would be thrown in jail.

7:17 - Pam: "Is it wrong for the feds to intrude on states' authority?" (Softball alert!) Nothing wrong with a prez advocating change, but he can't then say the fed govt will be in charge of it. Then defends sitting with Nancy, saying he wants conservative environmentalism.

7:19 - Ken: "favorite founding father?" George Washington, then rattles off a bunch of reasons why.

Commercials! Infiniti, GE, Tempurpedic beds.

RICK SANTORUM

7:22 - Pam: "You said Abe Lincoln ran over our civil rights during the Civil War. Are there any elements of the Patriot Act that run over our civil rights?" (Great question, Pam. You're forgiven.) No! "Why?" I voted for the Patriot Act, most of the changes were consistent with how we deal with drug kingpins and gangsters. "How did Abe run over our civil rights?" Suspended habeus corpus, but he did what he had to do.

7:24 - Scott: "Strengthening the family is important to you and it's important TO US. is that a proper function with respect to fed govt?" I'm father of seven, family's important to me and America. Fed govt undermines family, look at our welfare programs. We do things to break families apart. We had the marriage tax penalty. There are things Prez can do beyond laws. "Where do the states fit?" Well, I was the author of the Fed Welfare Reform bill, only time we've taken fed program and sent it back to states. We should cut, cap, freeze welfare, send it back to states.

7:27 - Ken: "Since Constitution doesn't have authority to ban abortions..." I support Constitutional amendment to ban abortion, if you will. We need uniform law on values that undergird our country. I fought for marriage amendment; we can't have 50 definitions of marriage in this country.

7:29 - Pam: "In FL, I'VE had to sue the EPA for devastating water standards. What principles would you follow in instituting "any" environmental regulation. Endangered species act is overly broad. This is what the left is best at. "What would you do?" I won't sign a straight re-authorization; I'll make Congress go back and fix the overly broad wording.

7:31 - Scott: "Why do you think the founders created separation of state and federal powers?" (Seriously?) They did it to protect the rights of the states and the citizens.

7:32 - Ken: "Constitutionally why is the president wrong to not defend the Defense of Marriage Act signed by Pres. Clinton?" I'm happy he isn't, becuz he was throwing the case. "You mean they were rolling over?" They were rolling over. (Objection! Leading the witness!)

7:34 - Pam: "Are the courts the only arbiter of the Constitution?" (Softball alert!) No.

Commercials! Wells Fargo, Lexus, Crestor, 21st Century Insurance.

RICK PERRY

7:37 - Ken: "If elected you said you'd give an executive order to invalidate ObamaCare. What is your authority to invalidate a law passed by Congress?" (Bam!) There's a lot in that bill that gives authority to the departments, so I'd make sure my Health & Human Services secretary shares my philosophy, Medicare needs to go back to the states. "It sounds like you're ready to use an executive order to invalidate the parts you don't agree with." Absolutely. "What is your authority for that?" The executive order gives you that authority. (So the President is a king, Rick?)

7:39 - Pam: "All 3 OF US here represent right-to-work states. Do u favor passing a natl right-to-work law?" The states have the right to do that. I'm a big 10th amendment supporter. States have to compete with each other. Get the fed govt making one-size-fits-all, even if it's something we like. We made Texas a very good place for businessmen & women.

7:41 - Scott: "Illegal immigration costs each state billions of dollars. Should the fed govt have to pay for that?" We send them a bill every year. The real issue is border security. I've been dealing with this for 10 years. Sheriff Joe endorsed me cuz of this. "Would u favor the states being able to sue fed govt for cost of them not enforcing, securing border?" Absolutely, but it'll become a non-issue cuz I'll secure the border.

Commercials! Sea-Bond denture gum, Aleve, Subaru, Neat scanner, Tempurpedic beds.

7:46 - Pam: "If parents and states fail education, does Fed have obligation to intervene?" No. The state legislators will do that. We'll never have that situation happen. We have Fed govt intervening too much. Education of kids is state and local issue. "Would u get rid of fed assistance for school lunch, Pell grants, GI bill?" Yes, well, maybe keep the GI bill. Fed picks winners & losers. (Huh?)

7:48 - Scott: "Which Supreme Court justices do u consider strict constructionists?" (Rick grins at the softball.) Alito and Roberts! We have four liberal legislators in robes on the Court right now. There's no accountability, but I'd like a Constitutional amendment to limit the term of a Supreme Court judge. (ooh, most of the Founders wouldn't agree with that.) "What's more preferable to you: overturn Roe v. Wade and return abortion laws to states, or passing a Human Life Amendment?" I'd do both! Until u get that Constitutional Amendment passed, the states can pass their own abortion laws.

7:50 - Ken: "Any reason labor law has to be dominated by fed govt?" Leave that to the states as well. "Would u be ready to get fed govt out of business of union elections?" Absolutely. "Favorite Founding father?" Madison. Brilliant individual.

7:51 - Huck (hey, Huck's first question!): "Explain to the layman what a strict constructionalist is." Rick then pulls his microphone trying to get his pocket Constitution out, then holds it upside down and says read this and don't try to change it. (How many Constitutional Amendments did he endorse?)

Commercials! Hugo movie, Prudential, US Postal Service, Cymbalta (which might make u suicidal and cause fatal liver problems), AT&T.

MICHELLE BACHMANN

7:56 - Scott: "U've been strong opponent of ObamaCare as WE have been. U said states cannot pass individual mandate. What's your authority for that?" It goes back to our inherant freedoms. Overriding issue is ObamaCare will change face of country forever, cost trillions of dollars, take away our liberty, collapse Medicare, tax-subsidized abortion, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria, etc. Obama ordered every health insurance company in America to cover free the morning-after pill. "WE passed stature to say no one could be forced to buy insurance. Was that unnecessary?" No, u did the right thing. But it is the law of the land right now. It will steamroll every state and make socialized medicine the law of the land.

7:58 - Pam: "U've pledged to deport all 11 million illegal immigrants. That'll cost $135 billion. How would u do it?" There's a $113 billion cost each year to let them stay. We should uphold the law. "What's your plan for executing the plan?" Enforcement by ICE agents; they're not enforcing them now. We have sanctuary cities. "MY fear is that the money will get dumped on MY state." Congress has specific ennumerated power to secure the border; it's their role. Fed govt needs to pay for deportation cost.

8:00 - Ken: "U're for tort reform. Do u support cap on damage amounts?" Yes, absolutely. "Do u support federal rules for how states handle their tort reform?" I can.

Commercials! The Debt on DVD, Geico, UPS, MassMutual, Shriners Hospitals

8:04 - Scott: "Will eliminating Dept of Education be enough to get fed govt out of education?" No, we need full-scale repeal of the burdens and mandates as well as abolish Dept of Education. We didn't have that dept. til the 1970's so we can get by w/o it. "U said you'd get rid of EPA too." We have 50 state EPA's. The fed EPA has become a govt unto themselves. "I AGREE with you, but how would you deal with inter-state environment issues?" They can be negotiated. "U can't negotiate w/o legal foundation. If they don't negotiate, then what?" Good point. But there may be a need for new legislation to deal with these issues, but look at what's happening now. Cap and tax, controlling businesses. "Hey, WE'RE all suing the EPA, so..." Thank you very much!

8:08 - Pam: "Other than Roe v. Wade, what was the worst Supreme Court decision of the last 50 years?" Well, all-time worst was Dred Scott, but int he last 50, there are so many. I'll go with Kelo decision. It was a govt entity taking private property from an individual that would benefit govt in form of revenue and give it to another. Scott: 'What would u do to protect private property?" If a case goes before the court, they need to uphold the Constitution.

8:10 - Pam: "Kelo's one of MY worst too. U support federal Human Life amendment; why not leave to states?" Inalienable rights are given to us by God, not man. Decl. of Independence said we should protect those rights; that includes rights.

Commercials! GE, Lexus (two different commercials that end with loved-one surprised other with a new car with a giant bow on top; must be cool to be rich), Nexium, Samuel Adams beer.

RON PAUL

That tie would have been right at home around Henry Gibson's neck in Nashville (1976).

8:13 - Ken: "What do u think are the 3 primary domestic responsibilities of fed govt?" Protect borders, provide sound currency, enforce Bill of Rights, like property rights, speech and so forth.

8:14 - Scott: "In 1995 WE lost 165 Oklahomans in domestic terrorist attack. Atty general uses tools of Patriot Act to combat domestic terrorism. I TOO share your concerns with privacy but what thoughtful alternative do u have to the Patriot Act?" If your goal is to prevent all crimes and all acts, u destroy all liberty by doing that. If the Patriot Act had been called The Repeal of the Fourth Amendment, it wouldn't have passed, but that's what it did. We have plenty of laws but if u try to pass laws to prevent all crimes, what r u going to do, put a camera in every home? Terrorism is a crime not a war. We use it to justify things. There's nothing in the Constitution authorizing a natl police force. We have 100,000 fed troops carrying guns.

8:18 - This Pam Bondi clearly dislikes Paul. She sneers when asking him what he calls the attack on the Twin Towers. First he calls it an act of violence, then concedes it was a terrorist attack. We need to understand the problems and not just say we need more fed policemen. This is all messed up; we've been told this is all becuz people want to come here and kill us becuz we're free. As long as we keep saying that, we're not going to be any safer.

8:19 - Pam: "Obama has had the audacity to say less regulation means dirtier air, dirtier water. Is that what less fed regulation really means?" (Aw, a nice softball for him after going mean-girl the question before.) No, that's not what it means. If u don't have regulations on the environment or banking, the free market is actually a strict regulator. Drug companies write their own regulations, banking writes their own legislation, they become lobbyists. If u have the market, u have property rights, contract rights. The market took care of Enron, they were tried for fraud and sent to prison. It's up to us to argue the case.

Commercials! Red Lobster, Sea-Bond denture bond (Fox News must think no one under age 65 is watching at this point), Aleve, DirecTV, TrueCar.com.

8:23 - Scott: "You've called Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security unconstitutional, so this must mean you plan to get rid of them." Well, not overnight. You guys slam ObamaCare for having a mandate, but there are all sorts of mandates in medicine and govt programs. We need a transitional program. There's nothing in the Constitution that says to spend one penny on education. But I would preserve some of these programs with the purpose of phasing them out. We're in trouble becuz there's no respect for Constitution. "Why would u vote for budget u consider unconstitutional?" I advocate transition programs, that makes a big difference.

8:25 - Ken: "Please put in order of importance: sovereignty of people, states, fed govt." Well, people and states, and very little for fed govt. none for international govt like UN and NATO for things we do around the world.

8:26 - Scott: "Are there any Amendments to Constitution u believe are mistakes?" What? "Mistakes." Can't quite hear. "Just pick a few." Well, the Prohibition one was terrible, it led to a decade of increased crime, but then we repealed it. The Bill of Rights are amendments and they're great. The others aren't enough for me to get riled up about.

8:27 - Pam: "If you could suggest every American read one book, what would it be?" Excluding religiously oriented? "Could be." Since we're talking about politics and the law, "The Law" by Bastiat would wake them up. It says if you can't do it, the govt can't do it. If u can't steal, u can't let a politician steal.

Commercials! AT&T, Align probiotic, Dodge Ram trucks, Pradaxa (can cause fatal bleeding).

Two different drug commercials where they fine-print the fact that taking their drug could kill you.

MITT ROMNEY

Looking unusually orange.

8:31 - Scott: "U know Oklahoma is a leader in energy; but when they say u're EPA admin won't be much different than Obama's." Well, Mike Leavitt is a friend of mine and he was Bush's EPA admin and the oil and gas people tell me it was a whole lot better under him. I see the EPA eliminating fracking and say this is just their effort to go all solar and wind and raise our costs drastically. "Would u put a stop the fed from interfering with fracking regulation?" Yes, the EPA's trying to get more power. We all like renewables, but renewables alone will not power this economy. EPA is holding down private sector.

8:34 - Ken: "Obama says his health-care was based on yours. What would u say?" I'd say thanks but why didn't u give me a call? I liked my bill overall, but what the prez has done is way beyond what we did. We were trying to take care of the 8% in Mass. uninsured. "What u did affected the entire insurance industry?" Very little for the 92%. In terms of getting down cost of health-care, that's what we should be working toward.

8:36 - Pam: "U supported No Child Left Behind in 08; what role does fed govt have in education policy?" Let me say I continue to support aspects of NCLB. Fed govt has role to stand up to fed teachers unions, prevent cyber-learning, prevent merit-pay. Bush recognized to determine which schools or teachers are fialing, we need to test. Bush stood up to those huge unions. Education should be done by state and locals. But NCLB was Bush's way of standing up to teachers union. "So would u support removing fed pay for school lunches, Pell grants, GI bill?" Some yes, some no. School lunch deals with the poor, those that deal with poor I'll look at one by one, but most I'll send to states to have them deal with it.

8:38 - Scott: "U've said u want to support strict constructionist to Supreme Court. What does that mean to u?" Supreme Court needs to protect the Constitution, not use it as springboard to insert their own ideas. Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia are strict constructionists. I want brilliant constructionists who share my values who have a good track record.

8:39 - Pam: "There are 1000s of illegal immigrants who come into MY state of Florida. Given the fed govt's complete lack of securing border, what should Florida do to protect themselves." States have right to protect their own people. I vetoed in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. I gave ICE power to deal with illegal immigration laws. Fed govt needs to step up.

8:40 - Ken: "Is there any reason labor law has to be dominated by fed govt?" First step is to revamp natl labor relations board if not eliminate all together. My own view states should put in right-to-work laws to allow people to work w/o having to join union. "Is that a maybe?" I wouldn't get rid of all fed labor laws but I would look at them and say as many as I can, turn it back to the states.

Commercials! Expedia, Verizon, Salvation Army, Biotene, UPS.

Closing arguments! One minute each.

ROMNEY - Historically this has been a merit-based society, which has made us strong. Obama wants to see an entitlement-based society, where they spread rewards around, and the most go to those who do the spreading the govt. I've worked in private sector, I know how this economy works.

PERRY - I hope everyone gives me a second look. We'll put a part-time Congress in place. Look at my plan, and give me another chance.

PAUL - We've turned the Constitution on its head, our congresses, our courts, our executive have taken too much power, and the states suffer the consequences. We've forgotten the principle of nullification. The states have to be able to nullify this! (Wow,

GINGRICH - We've seen some very intelligent people to ask some very important questions. Eight years of Obama would be a disaster with his Saul Alinksy radicalism and his efforts to fundamentally change America. This is the most important election since 1860. Together we have to stand shoulder-to-shoulder to get Congress to do the right thing.

BACHMANN - This is the most important election of our lifetime. We were promised hope and change, but this is our chance to get real hope and real change. I know how to grow the economy as a tax attorney and business owner.

SANTORUM - Thanks, Mike, you were a great warrior for faith and family in 2008. What's at the heart of this is that America is a moral enterprise and we are sick inside with 1000s of children being aborted and marriages being attacked and torn apart. I will stand and defend America.

And... scene.

Huck asks the questioners what they thought. Ken says no one bombed but some really shined. Pam says we heard more about the Constitution than all the other debates combined. Scott says we heard they will defend the rights of the states and that's exciting.

What did I think? I liked the format, I liked hearing each candidate having to explain themselves. I hated the grilling from three self-aggrandizing partisans. If it had been three journalists, this would have been much better. On second thought, Huntsman was probably right to skip this.

How'd the candidates do?

　

1. RON PAUL - He showed that he doesn't plan on overthrowing everything overnight, you have to have gradual change and transition programs. He pled for nullification to return. (I seem to recall South Carolina used nullification in 1860. How'd that turn out?) As usual, he came across as the most sincere one in the group.

2. MITT ROMNEY - Looked very orange. He had no problem going into details; I liked the energy exchange. He stood up for NCLB. Might have been easier for him to flip-flop but he didn't, even though his reasoning (Bush was standing up to the federal teachers!) was iffy.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - Danced around his ad with Nancy Pelosi, skipped over his individual mandate support, but otherwise threw out plenty of red meat for the base.

4. MICHELLE BACHMANN - I knew what she'd say on ObamaCare (it'll destroy the universe) and illegals (let's spend $135 billion to round em all up and ship em out), but when pressed on the EPA, it was clear she hadn't really though the consequences through.

5. RICK SANTORUM - Wants two new Constitutional Amendments for abortion and marriage, but thinks the Patriot Act is a-okay. Running to be Moralist-in-Chief.

6. RICK PERRY - Stumbled badly on the executive order question, seemed to save himself on the Tenth Amendment, then said he wants Constitutional amendments to give Supreme Court justices term limits and ban all abortion. When asked what a strict constructionist is, he didn't answer. He just said read the Constitution and don't try to interpret it. Like the Bible. But he wants an Amendment to give term limits to the Supreme Court... Staggering.

Ron Paul should win Iowa

2011-12-03T18:13:00.001-08:00

Call me crazy, but Iowa is Ron Paul's to lose.
The vote is still five weeks away. That's plenty of time for operatives from rival campaigns to remind people just how much baggage Newt Gingrich carries. Sure, Newt was the first to get out a butt-kissing tweet on Herman Cain's decision to "suspend" his campaign and launch a website. Most talking-heads on cable are saying that Newt will benefit most from Cain leaving the race, but that makes me wonder. Of the folks who had Cain as their #1, why on Earth would Newt be their #2?

Cain was an outsider. Newt's the ultimate insider. Cain's support dropped somewhat after the sexual-harrassment claims, but substantially after the adultery claims. Newt's cheated on two wives. Cain made his money in corporate America. Newt made his money through cronyism. What else do you call Freddie Mac paying him $1.6 million? Cain had humble beginnings. The word "humble" has never come within ten miles of Newt Gingrich. I couldn't be less surprised that Newt was the first (and so far only) candidate to accept a debate with Donald Trump as moderator.

Now Newt likes big ideas and big adverbs. He more than any other candidate is very talented at making it sound like he's answering the question. When he was at the bottom of the polls, he was all smiles and magnaminity. His already giant head will swell with every poll point he gains. He is his own worst enemy.

So how does Iowa feel about that devastating ad Ron Paul put out illustrating Newt's flip-flops? How does Iowa feel about his co-starring with Nancy Pelosi in a climate-change ad? How do they feel about his support of TARP?

This is why I see Ron Paul as the next NotRomney. (Paul's polling second in Iowa right now.) I still see Romney as having a decent shot at Iowa. It seems like it always boils down to debate performances. But there needs to be a NotRomney, and I can see some people revisiting Bachmann, and the vote being close, and Ron Paul emerging victorious, with 30% of the vote. (Mitt 28%, Newt 22%, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, Huntsman getting the 20% leftovers.)

Now Ron Paul fans are passionate and can be, oh what's the word.... melodramatic? Don't get me wrong, I voted for Paul in 2008, but here's just some Facebook comments from Paul supporters in my groups, all left within the past few days:

"Don't rule Ron Paul out because he realizes the state is willing to do almost anything for self-preservation. That includes being part of 9/11."

"No one provides the kind of drastic, quick changes that this country needs besides Ron Paul. At this point I don't think it matters if we elect Obama again, or someone like Romney. They will both lead the country to complete collapse. Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who has a plan bold enough to cut enough of the fat from the government to actually save this republic."

"Ronald Reagan couldn't shine Ron Paul's shoes!!"

If their Iowan counterparts can work on persuasion, Paul really should be able to pull this off.

GOP InTrade Watch 11/26/11

2011-11-26T18:27:00.001-08:00

From November 26.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 62.9%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 15.8%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 8%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 6%
5. (5) - Herman Cain - 2.7%
6. (6) - Rick Perry - 2%
7. (7) - Michl Bachmann - 1.4%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .7%

No one else is above .1%.

The Wednesday debate helped who it should have. Romney dipped but is still clearly ahead the field, while Gingrich, Huntsman and Paul all saw slight improvement. Herman Cain and Rick Perry fell further, and I would say it's time for those bottom four to bow out. And yet, Tim Pawlenty obviously bowed out too early, so who knows.

Meanwhile Romney's decided he's going to compete in Iowa after all, which 538's Nate Silver agrees is a good idea. I think Romney was fine to cede Iowa when Perry or Cain was the front-runner, but with Gingrich and Paul doing well, either of them could ride the Iowa surge into New Hampshire and be credible competition.

CNN GOP Debate

2011-11-22T21:35:00.001-08:00

Most haunted-house movies are about ghosts who either don't realize they're dead, or they can't quite let go. They cling to what was. Maybe they want revenge, information, closure, but eventually someone from the living comes along to serve as catalyst.

That's what watching the GOP debates feels like sometimes. I see Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the house, and there's Jon Huntsman on the end, like the nosy neighbor who's going to walk in at precisely the wrong moment. There's Rick Santorum on the other end, as the guy who gets killed in the prologue. Meanwhile the spectres of campaigns past haunt the stage. Perry rattles his chains, Cain whispers "The house is ours" and Bachmann crawls through the TV to settle a grudge. Someone needs to exorcise those three so they can go to their final resting place, with Santorum right behind them. Huntsman, I imagine, is waiting for the Iowa fallout to see if it bumps him in New Hampshire. I understand his strategy. The other four, though... It's sad.

But onward we must proceed, with still eight total talking heads on the stage. Here are your contestants:

MITT ROMNEY - "The Establishment Front-Runner". Hey, he doesn't change his positions as often as the GOP changes their front-runner.

NEWT GINGRICH - "The Flavor of the Week". I hereby pledge to advise all of Gingrich's companies for half of what he charged. (You're getting a sweet deal here.)

RON PAUL - "The Libertublican". I don't know if he really wants to be President; he just wants to make sure whoever is audits the Fed.

JON HUNTSMAN - "New Hampshire's Maitre'D" - If I mention I have a relative at Dartmouth, can I get a free backrub?

HERMAN CAIN - "9-9-9". The answer to the Jeopardy question "How many sexual harrassments lawsuits have been filed against him, against him, against him?"

RICK PERRY - "The Texas Christian" - I am not drunk.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - "The One Woman" - We'll always have Ames.

RICK SANTORUM - "The Social Conservative" - Put the gay toothpaste back in the Muslim tube!

6:02 - After an opening sequence that makes it look like we've assembled eight cyborgs to lead our country, Wolf Blitzer ("yes, that's my real name") gets to it with his own intros. Once again, I wish Vince McMahon were in charge of the intros. We need theme music and pyrotechnics. It would be no sillier than the opening sequences these cable producers package.

6:05 - No, wait. A guy from The Jersey Boys sings our national anthem. NOW we can begin.

6:07 - Oh wait. Wolf has to explain the debate rules. Speed it up, Wolf; we've got eight people up there.

6:09 - Holy crap, now the candidates are going to introduce themselves. Santorum dings Obama, Paul dings "unnecessary wars," Perry points out he's in a happy marriage, Romney starts off by joking that Mitt is his first name (*crickets*), Cain says Obama's "downgraded" our natl security, Gingrich plugs his work with Heritage, Bachmann says she wants to get troops home as soon as we can, and Huntsman does indeed mention New Hampshire.

6:13 - Wolf: "Let's get right to the questions!" Are you freakin' kidding me?

6:14 - First question is about keeping the Patriot Act. Newt wants to keep it, as we'll all be in the danger "for the rest of our lives." Paul disagrees, correctly, and gives a great plea against turning the US into a police state.

6:17 - Bachmann says we've handed over interrogation to the ACLU, says it was a bad thing we gave Miranda rights to the underwear bomber. Huntsman points out the brand of the United States means something overseas, wants to find the balancing act between liberty and security.

6:20 - Romney gets a TSA question but glosses over it so he can get into the war vs. crime debate.

6:21 - Perry wants to privatize the TSA and keep the Patriot Act. Most of them are competing to see who can make sure our future is Minority Report.

6:23 - Santorum has two modes: complaining he doesn't get enough questions, and whatever is suggested, he claims he voted for it first. He's pro-profiling, especially Muslims. Paul shakes his head, says we're not "at war." There's a war on terrorism but not against a people and stresses individual rights again.

6:25 - Cain seems to be cool with Santorum's approach to profiling. Cain wants to "refine" the Patriot Act but not throw it out because the terrorists still want to kill us. Paul can't believe some of these people are allowed on stage.

6:27 - Huntsman gets the Pakistan question. He plugs Congressional term limits slyly then says Pakistan should keep us up at night. "It's a haven for bad behavior." Bachmann calls Pakistan the "epicenter" of terrorist training, and I am reminded once again that she's on the Intelligence committee and will sound smart on foreign matters. She probably regrets the earlier debates weren't more focussed on foreign policy. And she coins the phrase: "Too nuclear to fail."

6:31 - Perry disgrees with Bachmann, and a couple seals in the back clap. Bachmann comes back "with all due respect" that's "highly naive." Oh snap! I've never liked her more.

6:33 - Perry tries to fall back on his briefings about Afghanistan and India, but Bachmann won't let him off the hook with his "blank check" remark.

6:35 - Romney called Pakistan the sixth largest country in the world. Factcheck! *clap-clap!* That's a True. Wow, had no idea.

6:36 - Romney wants to bring modernity to Pakistan but wants to be careful about withdrawals. Huntsman completely disagrees and begs for an honest discussion, rattles off our successes. Romney counters by dropping "we don't want to cut and run" and wants to listen to the generals on the ground. Huntsman points out LBJ listened to the generals on the ground in 1967 too. Romney gets in a confident rebuttal.

6:40 - Newt's grouchy he hasn't had a chance to respond, but isn't really sure what we're debating. He points out how killing bin Laden brought US-Pakistan relations to a new low. "Well, they should have." (applause)

6:41 - Santorum says he agrees with Ron Paul. We are not fighting a war against terrorism, terrorism is a tactic. (Waiting for the other shoe to drop...) We are fighting a war against radical Islam. (Ah...)
Commercial!

6:47 - Awkward minute where they try to get a question from the audience. If Israel attacked Iran to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, would you help the attack or otherwise support?

6:48 - Uh, oh. Cain goes first. He would first make sure they have a plan for success. Remember it's a very mountainous region. (Oh geez...) Cain's foreign policy plan: Asking "Are you sure?" If they say yes, "Attack!"

6:49 - Paul wouldn't help but he doesn't expect it to happen, as the Mossad leader said it would be the stupidest thing in the world for them to do. But if it did happen, "why does Israel need our help?"

6:51 - Cain comes back to Afghanistan, but Wolf mercifully cuts him off for a different question.

6:52 - Perry's asked about sanctions on Iran. He wants to sanction their Central Bank and kill their economy. He wants to bring in Syria too, and uh.. "at that moment, they'll understand America is serious."

6:53 - Newt says we need a surplus of energy here. We need a strategy here and here and over there. Frankly, more strategic, less tactical. He also used about ten -ly words in his answer. Bachmann gets in a shot at Obama cancelling the keystone pipeline before going back to Iran, saying they plan to use nuclear weapons against Israel and the United States. She pretty much says if World War III happens, it's Obama's fault.

6:57 - Paul Wolfowitz asks about all the good foreign aid the US has done (Fighting AIDS and malaria in Africa, for example.) Can we still afford to do that? Santorum says he supported the bill for fighting AIDS in Africa and how it helps combat terrorism by us giving aid, taking a veiled swipe at Perry for wanting to start every country at zero.

6:58 - Cain says it depends. He wants to see the results. Paul calls the aid worthless, says we're giving money to wealthy people in poor countries. Our budget's in trouble! "The biggest threat to our national security is our financial condition." Romney rails against cutting military spending and saying we should cut ObamaCare. Paul says we're not cutting anything; it's just talk. Romney flinches, then rattles off the planned military cuts and says Obama has failed to lead with strength.

7:00 - Newt drops the Reagan name, then Apple, then gets in a "profoundly" before reminding the audience how awesome WWII was. Then gets in a Lean Six Sigma plug and says "there are lots of things we can do." I'd wager most of the people in the room thought he gave an actual answer.

7:02 - Huntsman's asked where he stands on defense cuts. Says we have a financial deficit but we also have a "trust" deficit. We can't have an intellectually honest discussion about debt and spending with sacred cows. Everything needs to be on the table, then gives specifics of his strategy.

7:08 - Perry gets a softball on the supercommittee, but still sounds like he's stalling. Pronounces it "LegislaTors." Think half a trillion is five hundred million. Calls for Panetta to resign in protest "if he is an honorable man."

7:10 - Santorum gets the question on Reagan's compromise rule (I'd rather get 80% of what I want than nothing), and Santorum says "It depends."

7:12 - Question on entitlement reform. Newt talks about his Social Security plan based on the Chilean and Galveston models, which I am pretty sure Cain was the first one to propose in a previous debate. Bachmann says it's time to draw a line in the sand when it comes to raising the debt limit, says we've gone from $8 to $15 trillion in debt in four years. Says we need to balance the budget, then chip away at the debt.

Commercials!

7:19 - We get footage of protests in Egypt.

More commercials!

7:22 - Question on the southern border. Do you consider that to be a national interest threat? Perry says we need a 21st-century Monroe Doctrine, that Hamas and Hezbollah are operating in Mexico, slams Hugo Chavez, calls border security paramount to the entire Western Hemisphere. Says we can work with Mexico to sanction their banks. (Perry's a bank-sanctioning machine!)

7:25 - Paul says we need to cancel the drug war; it's to nobody's benefit. Says we should be more concerned with the border between the US and Mexico rather than the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Says we should handle illegal drugs the same way we handle alcohol and prescription drugs.

7:26 - Cain says we know terrorists have entered this country via the Mexican border. Says let's secure the border for real. Numbers off what he'd do, a Romney tactic. Santorum praises high-skill immigration, talks about trickle-down economics. Split-screen with Perry, who looks like he wants to meet Santorum in a dark alley.

7:28 - Newt uses Einstein as an example of the importance of immigration. He uses very big words to describe a humane way of dealing with illegal immigrants. Bachmann sledgehammers him with "Amnesty!" She says Steve Jobs said he had to move 30,000 jobs to China because he couldn't find the engineers here. (Which I call bullcrap on, seems like engineers are getting laid off all the time around here; US jobs are going to China becuz it's cheaper there.) Newt counters with being humane, not breaking up families. Bachmann essentially says "Nah, round em up and ship em out."

7:33 - Romney says amnesty is a magnet but wants to make legal immigration easier. Says he'd staple a green card to any immigrant who gets a Masters degree or PhD.

7:36 - Newt doubles-down on "separating families" but is pro-deportation for those illegals who haven't been here that long. Says the party shouldn't adopt a policy that breaks up families. Perry reluctantly sides with Mitt over Newt with a "here we go again." (See what he did there?) Says we have to secure the border first "once and for all." Mitt says it's a mistake to focus a Republican debate on amnesty.

Commercials!

7:43 - Question on Syria from Dick Cheney former Chief of Staff David Addington. Wolf says Perry suggested a no-fly zone over Syria; would you support that? "No." Then he says he'd work with our allies to stop buying oil from Syria, brings it back to the economy. (Is he actually going to go through a whole debate without saying "9-9-9"?) Perry weighs in, says it'd help the military in Syria disband, likens it to Iran.

7:45 - Huntsman gets a question on Arab Spring, says we missed the "Persian Spring." Says we need to remind the world what it means to be a friend and ally to the US. Says sanctions won't work becuz the Chinese and Russians won't play ball. Gives a great answer about the region.

7:49 - Somalia question, compares it to al-Qaeda. Paul says if we want to inspire al-Qaeda, let's just meddle in the region, calls a no-fly zone over Syria an act of war. How would we feel if China put a no-fly zone over one of our territories? Why don't we mind our own business?

7:51 - Romney realizes it's late in the debate, so he goes off on Obama, rattling off several contrasts between the two, then brushes aside Perry's no-fly suggestion. Perry back-peddles, says "no-fly" is an option to leave on the table.

7:54 - Last question is a good one. What natl security threat are you worried about that no one's talking about? Santorum talks about being scared of socialists through central and south America. "We took the side of Oogo Chavez." Paul says he worries most about overreaction on our part. Perry's worried about China, they have no values, they have 35,000 abortions a day. Romney says Perry's right on China in the long run but short-run Santorum's right on South America, says to Paul we have been attacked. Cain's worried about cyberattacks. Newt is worried about a weapon of mass destruction, an electro-magnetic pulse attack, and then cyberattacks. Bachmann agrees with everyone, but says Obama is giving away the peace we won in Iraq. Huntsman says he's worried about here at home, joblessness, lack of opportunity, debt, our trust deficit.

So how's they do?

1. RON PAUL - I don't think the beltway media can ignore him anymore. Paul made a clear distinction between himself and everyone else, and he's like the guy with nothing to lose. And he's always been that way. Paul made it clear he values liberty over safety, minding our own business over intervention, legallizing drugs, and drastically cutting the federal budget. If you support that, he's your guy. If you don't, well, you know he means it. I'd wager this will him a solid third-place in the polls in the next couple days.

2. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed a strong performance and he delivered. He came across as the perfect bridge between Paul and the rest of the crew. He also landed some hits on Romney, a rare occurance. He shredded Perry's bullet-point of sanctions and was pro-America in talking about all the things we've done right. His arguments seemed the most "general election" friendly than anyone else's.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - You know, when other candidates have ascended to "presumed front-runner" status, the other candidates have attacked them. Rick Perry bore the brunt, Mitt Romney slapped them back, Herman Cain felt the stings, but Newt... no one really seemed interested in going after him except Ron Paul. Tonight was the night to yank the chair out from under Newt, and no one did it. I know a lot of Republicans who are against the Patriot Act, but Newt was virtually arguing for fascism, and half of the candidates nodded and said, "Yeah, that's great." I was paying attention to his answers more than anyone else's, and I found half of his answers were frankly profoundly fundamentally completely... woops, out of time. Then when we got to immigration, he found himself to the left of most of the candidates, arguing for humanity in how we enforce our laws.

Debates are as much about presentation as content, those YouTube clips mean more than the transcripts. And Newt "performed" very well. He did nothing to knock himself off the "front-runner" pedestal, at least not in Iowa. His "Uncle Newt" persona is working. I wonder how much longer Republicans are going to let him stay atop the polls. They sure they don't want to kick the tires on Paul or Huntsman again for their Not-Romney model?

4. MITT ROMNEY - This actually felt like a missed opportunity for him. He still debated like he owned the place, but he tried a little too hard to make Obama sound like a complete failure on foreign policy when Obama's really weakest on domestic. I thought he needed to poke the pin in the Newt balloon, but I think he was waiting for someone else to do it.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Pwned Rick Perry on the Middle East. I recall she's the one who took him down on the HPV vaccine. Says we need to balance the budget but still isn't clear on what she'd actually beyond not raise the debt ceiling and not raise taxes, and she's in the Pro-Police State camp.

6. RICK SANTORUM - Wants to profile Muslims who fly, fumbled the compromise question. Otherwise he was his usual self.

7. HERMAN CAIN - He had the same answer for every question. He would gather some experts together and then look at the information and then make a decision. Maybe fighting AIDS in Africa is a good thing, maybe it's not.

8. RICK PERRY - He was lost. Any answer he gave, someone else could counter with "Actually, that's not how it works." You could see the little wheels in his head fighting to remember the answers from his 3x5 cards. I'm amazed Texas has let him win two re-elections.

The 7 Lowest-Paying Jobs That Require the Most Education

2011-11-19T08:57:00.001-08:00

Beware if one of these is your chosen field:

1. Reporters/Correspondents
2. Survey Researchers
3. Medical/Clinical Lab Technicians
4. Museum Technicians/Conservators
5. Mental health/Substance Abuse Social Workers
6. Biological Technicians
7. Recreational Therapists

GOP InTrade Watch 11/17

2011-11-17T17:20:00.001-08:00

As of November 17
1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 70.5%
2. (4) - Newt Gingrich - 13.3%
3. (5) - Ron Paul - 4.7%
4. (5) - Jon Huntsman - 3.9%
5. (3) - Herman Cain - 3.4%
6. (2) - Rick Perry - 3%
7. (7) - Mich. Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .6%
9. (10)- Sarah Palin - .3%
10.(8) - Gary Johnson - .2%

I imagine Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels sitting at a bar somewhere, watching the NationalJournal debate on foreign policy cut off so CBS can show some reruns, then they flip the channel to one of the smaller cable-news channels where they talk about the inevitability of Mitt Romney, and how it's now Newt Gingrich's turn to surge.

Pawlenty: "Coulda been you."

Daniels: "If you hadn't dropped out after Ames, it would've been you."

(simultaneous sips from their brewskies)

Pawlenty: "One-point-six million from Freddie Mac for advice as a historian."

Daniels: "You're telling me. Why did we become governors?"

Pawlenty: "Think Ron Paul will get a turn?"

Daniels: "Why not? Then everyone will suddenly remember he'll be 77 years old in 2012, and they'll spin that story of some Paul blog defending a neo-Nazi, and it'll fizzle and die."

Pawlenty: "Then Huntsman?"

Daniels: "Right before Christmas. Then down on New Years Day."

Pawlenty: "Think Santorum will get a turn?"

They look at each other, then bust up laughing. They finish their beers, pay the tab, and put the Mitt 2012 buttons back on their jackets.

CBS National Journal Debate

2011-11-13T01:13:00.001-08:00

Pre-Debate power rankings

Before the debate starts, this is where I'd say they are in my power rankings. Why's Huntsman as high as fifth? Because he still could become the Not-Romney if the others flounder. I think Santorum has no chance, never has, never will, and Perry and Bachmann had their days in the sun but their time has passed.

1. Mitt Romney
2. Herman Cain
3. Newt Gingrich
4. Ron Paul
5. Jon Huntsman
6. Rick Perry
7. Michelle Bachmann
8. Rick Santorum

Now I know why it's an hour. Because CBS would rather show 48 Hours Mystery than the last half hour. Really? That's sad.

6:04 - Uh, oh. Boisterous Ron Paul contigent in the house. He's the third one introduced but he's the first to get applause, and then after that, the audience feels like they have to cheer/applaud the rest of the candidate. Poor Huntsman and Bachmann went first.

6:05 - Cain says he'd assist the opposition movement in Iran. (How?) He says we need an independent energy strategy. (Entailing what?) He wants sanctions on Iran. Major Garrett then asks if he'd militarily assist the opposition in Iran and Cain says no.

6:07 - The moderator (Scott Pelley) tries to cut Romney off after 30 seconds and Romney says he gets 60. Scott says he stands corrected and the crowd cheers. Romney then finishes his answer about putting crippling sanctions on Iran and that we cannot allow them to get a nuclear weapon. Uses the term "nuclear folly" twice.

6:09 - Newt starts by saying Cain's and Romney's answers were superior to the current administration. (Applause.) (This is why Newt is pulling ahead. He spends the debates being complementary about his opponents and bashing Obama and the media.)

6:10 - Ron Paul warns that the hawkish approach to Iran is the same mistake we made with Iraq. (That one Ron Paul section gives a big cheer. I get the feeling he's going to get the same reaction from them after every answer.)

6:11 - Rick Perry wants to sanction the Iranian central bank today. Says the mission must be complete in Afghanistan. (What is the mission?) Says giving a timetable is irresponsible. When Scott asks Perry about his view of the combat situation, Perry says we're making progress there.

6:12 - Major Garrett is doing great. Respectful, specific, precise.

6:13 - Santorum cannot make it through a debate without whining about him not getting more questions. Claims he already proposed the ideas that Cain and Romney gave. He also says we need to work with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability.

6:15 - Bachmann gives a pretty decent answer on what she thinks we should have done in Afghanistan.

6:17 - Huntsman's asked how he would address the spikes in deaths in Afghanistan. he said they're driven by lack of security, but he says it's time to come home. This nation achieved its key objectives. "This nation's future is not Afghanistan."

6:19 - Romney says we need to secure the victories our soldiers won in Afghanistan. He thinks Obama's timetable is too early.

6:20 - Newt says Pakistan is a sanctuary for the Taliban, that we need a much larger strategic discussion, with Pakistan on one end and Iran on the other.

6:21 - Major: "Pakistan, friend or foe?" Cain: "We don't know."

6:22 - Perry says the foreign-aid budget for every country will be zero dollars, and then we'll have a discussion if we should send them money. (Does he count Israel as a foreign country?) Says Pakistan doesn't deserve our aid becuz they're not being honest with us, says Pakistan's really being run by the military and Secret Service and he doesn't trust them.

6:23 - Bachmann says she'd reduce foreign aid but wouldn't start at zero, not even Pakistan. We need to remember they have a nuclear weapon.

6:24 - Newt agrees with Perry to start at zero each year with foreign aid. Says he'd have Christians defended in Egypt, isn't comfortable with Arab Spring turning into Anti-Christian Spring.

6:25 - Santorum says he disagrees with most of the panel. Pakistan has a nuclear weapon; they must be our friend. Engage them as friends. (Everyone's been well-coached for this debate. All are giving intelligent-sounding answers. More substance = less fireworks.)

Commercial.

6:29 - Newt asked about Romney and he declines, sings Mitt's praises. Major tries a new tack. "How would you think outside the box with foreign affairs?" He says he'd adopt the Reagan-Thatcher strategy toward Iran and North Korea. Says he'd apply Lean Six Sigma to the Pentagon.

6:31 - Scott asks Cain how would he know when he might need to disagree with his generals, and you can tell his nervousness increases. Says he feels like he'll do a good job picking his Cabinet and military leaders.

6:35 - Santorum will make sure he hires people who share his point of view. (i.e. Yesmen?) Hopes we've been doing a lot in covert affairs to slow down Iran's progress in developing a nuclear weapon, hopes we were behind scientists dying in Russia.

6:37 - Scott: "Governor Perry, you advocate the elimination of the Department of Energy..." Perry: "Glad you remembered it." Reaction shot of Jim DeMint and Lindsay Graham laughing, sitting in the audience. Perry points out he's been "Commander in Chief" in Texas over their national guard. (I'm pretty sure Howard Dean used that argument when he ran.)

6:39 - When asked about his stance on torture, Cain says he doesn't agree with torture, period, however... (wait, let me stop right there! If you don't agree with torture, period, your next word should not be "however") Major follows up with waterboarding, and Cain calls it an enhanced interrogation technique, and he would return to that policy.

6:41 - Bachmann's pro-waterboarding, and she says Obama is letting the ACLU run the CIA.

6:42 - Major refers to his Spidey-sense in letting Ron Paul get in his two cents about waterboarding. Paul: "Torture is illegal. Waterboarding is torture." Calls it immoral, uncivilized, un-American.

6:43 - Huntsman points out he has two sons in the Navy, then says this country has values. We have a name-brand in the world. I've lived overseas four times. Our values include liberty, democracy. We diminish our standing in the world when we torture. Waterboarding is torture. A lot of people in the world still rely on us to stand up for values.

6:45 - Romney's asked if he supported the Obama administration killing U.S. citizen/suspected terrorist. "Absolutely." (boos from the Paul section) Everything I do with be toward American strength, within the law. Scott says we will not have booing.

6:47 - Newt's okay with the terror suspect being killed without a trial. Says he was an enemy combatant and had no rights to our justice system. (Applause.)

6:48 - Major to Perry: "Are we engaged in financial warfare with China?" Compares where we are to where US and Russia were in 1980's. Says China will wind up on "ashheap of history" if they don't change their virtues.

6:49 - Romney points out China wants access to our market as we want access to theirs, but they have to play by the rules. They can't steal intellectual property and hack into our systems. Says they're a currency manipulator, we need to bring them before the WTO, artificially lowering prices.

6:50 - In response to Perry & Romney on China, Huntsman says reality is a little different. Says you can't bring China before the WTO for currency manipulation. Says the key to changing China will be allying with the young people of China.

Commercial.

6:55 - Hey, there's my point! Someone from Twitter stole my point! Barbara McMahon! She asks if Perry's including Israel as a foreign country that would start at zero. To his credit, he says yes.

Scott then says most CBS stations will now drop the debate.

Mine cut to live local news where some Occupy Salt Lake protestors were being arrested.

Quick check shows Barbara's question was actually her RT-ing someone else.

CBS had a decent debate going, but the decision to cut off the last 30 minutes was ridiculous. Unacceptable.

I think overall the candidates did well. Let's look at each, in descending order on how I think they did.

8. RICK SANTORUM - He can't get it through his head that Americans don't want to vote for a whiner. Every single debate he whines about not getting enough questions. In addition to his "hoping" we're behind some recent assassinations, I'm also pretty sure he endorsed helping Israel start World War III.

7. HERMAN CAIN - It's pretty clear of the eight, he has the least amount of foreign-policy experience or knowledge. His answers were vague and unassuring. And Cain likes to make definitive statements and then say "Period" and then undermine what he just said in the very next sentence. "I am lactose intolerant, period. However, I would like extra cheese on my sandwich."

6. RICK PERRY - Had a good laugh line about the Department of Energy, but it was easy to tell when he was uncomfortable; he'd quickly shift to something else. Something tells me this "Foreign-aid budget starts at zero" idea will catch on.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She was good when addressing specific countries, but she tends to overinflate when bringing it home for Obama.

4. JON HUNTSMAN - He had an eloquent defense of what American values mean to the rest of the world. He also has more credibility when disagreeing with Romney about China.

3. RON PAUL - He only got 90 seconds in the first 60 minutes. I think the outrage over that from his supporters makes it a successful night for him.

2. MITT ROMNEY - I repeat, as the front-runner, all you have to do is not lose, and he did not lose. He seriously is like a co-host up on the stage. He also certainly seems to enjoy being flanked by Newt and Cain and having Perry further away from the middle. He knows Cain is falling. I wonder how seriously he takes the Newt surge.

1. NEWT GINGRICH - Remember when Tim Pawlenty crumbled during the debate when asked about ObamneyCare? Newt demonstrated exactly how to get out of slamming your opponent to his face on stage. You can tell he knows his surge is coming. The one thing that seemed strange was his defense of killing a U.S. citizen if they're a terror suspect. I thought we weren't supposed to trust big government...? But Mitt said he was for it, too, so...

And where would I say their power rankings are now?

1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Ron Paul
4. Herman Cain
5. Jon Huntsman
6. Rick Perry
7. Michelle Bachmann
8. Rick Santorum

Debating the debate

2011-11-10T09:27:00.001-08:00

http://www.abc4.com/content/news/top_stories/story/Discussing-the-GOP-Debate/fbbV3ZDwwEqmlBVWY7OArg.cspx

CNBC Debate

2011-11-09T21:25:00.000-08:00

CNBC Debate

What will you do to make sure Italy's financial problems don't drag down the U.S.?

CAIN - 1. Grow the economy. 2. Assure our currency is sound. Grow the economy, cut spending.

ROMNEY - Europe can take of their own problems. They can bail out their own banks. We don't need to bail out banks in Italy or banks in the U.S. with Italian debt. Europe can help Europe.

Cramer is beside himself we'd actually let Italy fail.

PAUL - No, let it fail. Liquidate the debt. Debt, debt, debt, debt. Let thema ll fail, let all the mortgages go under.

HUNTSMAN - "Too big to fail." We need properly sized banks and institutions. (Which would mean more government intervention, right?)

Romney confronted about his being against the auto-bailout.

ROMNEY - Speaks about his attachments to Detroit. Said whether by Bush or Obama, they should have gone through private bankruptcy and restructuring process. John Harwood then asks Romney again about his flip-flop image. Calls himself a man of steadiness and constantcy, uses his marriage, church, and company as examples of being steady. Pledges to be true to his country and he will never apologize for America.

Harwood gives examples of Reagan (raising taxes) and Bush (bailouts) using flexibility and asks Perry about it.

PERRY - "America is going to be America again." "If you are too big to fail, you are too big."

GINGRICH - Fire Ben Bernanke. (applause) Audit the Fed. (applause) Operation Desert Storm. (just kidding) Slams Saul Alinksy radicalism, class warfare... lots of buzzwords, but not a real answer.

BACHMANN - Taxes lead to jobs leaving the country. Our biggest burden is regulation, our biggest regulation problem is ObamaCare. Repeal Dodd/Frank, build a fence to deal with immigration.

Harwood asks Santorum about 0% manufacturing jobs. Isn't that picking winners and losers?

SANTORUM - It's not picking winners and losers, it's a section of our economy. Some have suggested we need tariffs. That just taxes you. I don't want to tax you. I'll get rid of subsidies.

Maria asks Cain about his four accusers, gets booed.

CAIN - The American people deserve better than someone being tried in the court of public opinion based on unfounded accusations. (rousing applause) This country's looking for leadership. This is why people are still enthusiastic about my campaign.

ROMNEY - When asked, he said Herman Cain can answer these questions, and he just did.

Harwood, "Let's go back to the economy..." (sarcastic applause)

HUNTSMAN - I want to be the president of the 99%, and the 1%. I agree with the Occupy crowd in that this country will never again bail out a corporation. (tiny applause) We have banks that are too big to fail, and as long it remains that way, we're setting ourselves up for long-term disaster.

Cramer's on one.

ROMNEY - Our Democratic friends don't like profitable companies. I want to make American businesses successful. Obama doesn't like successful businesses. (loud applause)

PERRY - My 20% flat-tax plan will get this economy going. We need to plant a flag in the middle of America that says "Open for business again."

GINGRICH - The Occupy Wall Street crowd need a clue about history. Cites Henry Ford and Bill Gates' humble beginnings, are they the 99% or the 1%. Media is inaccurate about reporting on the economy. Maria stops him. "What is the media reporting inaccurately on the economy?" What? She asks again. He says he has yet to see a reporter ask a OWS person about who pays for their park they're occupying.

Man, Cramer's an annoying questioner. The other two are good. He asks about oil in Alaska.

SANTORUM - Quick answer, then goes to manufactuers. His grandpa was a coal miner.

Maria asks Cain about tax fairness.

CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan is the only one that solves the problem of the messy tax code. The complexity costs us $460 billion a year. Brings out Webster definition of fair. Maria asks how he can guarantee 9-9-9 doesn't turn into 19-19-19. "Tax codes don't raise taxes; people do." Says voters won't let politicians raise taxes above those rates.

ROMNEY - Would like to see flatter, simpler tax. Take our tax dollars and focus on those who are hurt the most - the middle class. Median incomes have dropped 10% the past few years. I focus a tax break for middle America. Right now let's do the job that needs to be done now, help the middle class.

BACHMANN - Obama's plan for job creation has nothing to do with job creators.

PAUL - The tax code is the consequence. Spending is the cause. You have to address spending. Cut $1 trillion in first year from five departments. Get rid of price fixing, raise interest rates.

Commercial break.

GINGRICH - If we repealed Dodd/Frank, we'd see the housing market improve overnight.

Maria Bartiromo asks why Romney's 59-point jobs plan doesn't address housing.

ROMNEY - Because it's a jobs plan, not a housing plan. (applause) We know how to improve the economy. Do the exact opposite of what Obama has done. The reason we are where we are is because the fed govt interfered with housing market.

PERRY - It's the regulatory world that is killing America. Doesn't matter if it's Dodd/Frank or the EPA, or whatever, audit every regulation since 2008 and ask "is it creating jobs or killing jobs?" If it's killing jobs, get rid of the regulation.

BACHMANN - Fannie and Freddie give bonuses to their executives?!

GINGRICH - I got $300,000 from Fannie/Freddie for giving advice of what they didn't do. It was my advice as a historian. (Something tells me there's more to what Newt did for Fannie/Freddie that offer advice as a historian for $300k.)

CAIN - When asked about Fannie/Freddie, he says you don't start there, you start with fixing the economy, 9-9-9. "Get the regulators off the backs of the banks." Then I'd unwind Fannie/Freddie so they'd be private.

HUNTSMAN - It's not right to have too big to fail. Let's right-size them. Goldman-Sachs has grown huge; is that right? Charge a fee to these institutions to protect taxpayers.

How to repeal ObamaCare?

HUNTSMAN - I'd meet with the 50 governors and address cost-containment. How do you empower patients? Harmonize medical records. Close the gap on the uninsured. Let the free market work to get truly affordable insurance.

PAUL - Get govt out of health care, we need medical savings accounts. It's a bipartisan problem.

PERRY - Send Medicaid back to the states; they know how to work it.

CAIN - The legislation has already been written, but "Princess Nancy" sent it to committee but it never came out.

ROMNEY - Health-care in 30 seconds is tought but let me try. Send Medicaid back to states, let individuals get their own insurance and don't discriminate against them. Do what Ron Paul said, get insurance to work like the market. Finally, get rid of our malpractice system.

GINGRICH - It's an absurd question. 30 seconds isn't enough time. I'd challenge the president to seven 3-hour Lincoln-Douglas style debates. Maria keeps trying to get Newt to answer the question about health care, then he rattles some stuff off, mostly covered by others but he goes into brain science for a bit.

BACHMANN - The main problem with health-care is cost. It's too expensive. First, let Americans buy insurance across state lines. Make all medical expenses tax-free.

SANTORUM - This is the difference between me and the other candidates. I led the discussion on medical savings accounts. I was always for private-sector health-care. I was one of the ones warning about the bubble before it burst.

ROMNEY - Govt is playing too heavy a role in health-care. Consumers need to be more involved, informed of what's happening. 18% of our GDP spent on health-care, more than anyone else in the world.

PAUL - My plan of cutting $1 trillion preserves Medicaid, but we deal with the bailouts, the banks; we'll probably wind up bailing out Europe, which would be a tragedy.

Commerical break. Rick Santelli joins the panel and gets a pop from the crowd.

SANTORUM (who has one uncomfortably toothy smile) - We need to look at plans that bring people together, that's why I'm focussing on manufacturing. (gets it oh-so-subtle digs to Huntsman and Cain).

ROMNEY - I had to find Democrats in Mass. who cared more about their state than their next election to get things done. We're headed toward Italy and Greece. We need a leader who can bring Reps and Dems together who care more about their country than their next election.

PERRY - Americans are looking for a regulatory climate that doesn't strangle the life out of their businesses. Yeah, we can all work with Reps and Dems, but you need a plan that'll fix the economy, and my flat-tax plan. I'll cut three govt departments: Commerce, Education, and uh, what's the third one.... and uh...

ROMNEY - EPA?

PERRY - Yeah, no! EPA needs to be rebuilt. The third one... uh... oops.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a campaign dies.

CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan makes every sector grow, not just one sector. It's bold. Yes, it's BOLD! I provide a compelling solution.

GINGRICH - I'm not going to raise taxes on middle Americans in an economy this bad. I'll take Soc-Sec out of the general budget; deal with it as a stand-alone issue. Give young people option of pursuing Galveston or Chilean model.

ROMNEY - This issue of the deficit is a moral issue. We can't pass all this debts to future generations. We need to cut spending. 1. Cut programs, like ObamaCare. 2. Move some programs back to states. 3. Finally bring some productivity to federal workers, cut fed jobs by 10%.

BACHMANN - I'm opposed to the payroll tax cuts becuz it blows hole in Soc-Sec trust fund. We sent $2.2 trillion in tax money to DC but they spent $3.7 trillion last year.

HUNTSMAN - The Fed has purchased trillion in securities. I'd clean up the balance sheet. We have a trust crisis in this country. Congress, the executive branch, Wall Street. There's no trust in our institutions of power. I'm the only one here who's done a flat tax. The WSJ called my tax plan the best. Phase out corporate welfare.

PAUL - Gets student-loan debt question. The policy of student loans is a total failure. Fed govt shouldn't deal with education. Inflation is the problem.

GINGRICH - Pres. LBJ started student-loan program. It made students take longer to graduate.

PERRY - Department of Energy! That was the third program. People on Soc-Sec need to understand it'll be there for them. The young people out there, who's going to stand up for them. I will do that.

Commercial break.

CAIN - It's wrong that Cali hired Chinese company to help rebuild San Fran bridge. That's why we need 9-9-9.

ROMNEY - China is cheating. It is good for US to have free trade, but they're playing by different rules, stealing copyrighted materials, hacking into our systems, they're stealing our jobs. 1. I'd label China a currency manipulator. 2. I'd make charge to WTO. 3. I'd apply tariffs if necessary.

GINGRICH - I'd be curious to hear what Huntsman has to say, but we need to dramatically increase competition.

HUNTSMAN - 30 seconds to respond?! Bottom line is tariffs start a trade war. Mitt's pandering.

ROMNEY - I've seen predatory pricing where they try to drive others out of business by keeping prices low, then raise them when their competitors go out of business.

BACHMANN - Chinese are bad actors. Chinese are housing nuclear weapons in new tunnels. We're in hoc to them for $1 trillion.

CAIN - Volatility is caused by uncertainty. To restore trust, we need to grow the economy.

Cramer: "People were getting ripped off when the economy was going great!"

CAIN - Repeal Dodd/Frank!

PERRY - Too cozy a relationship between govt and stock market. When there are individuals breaking the laws, prosecute them for criminality.

PAUL - Punish crony capitalism.

----

I'm tired, so I need to think about this one. My impressions right now are Romney won, Cain did fine even if he doesn't have anything beyond 9-9-9, Gingrich's answers were a house of cards, Ron Paul was his usual Libertaraian self, Huntsman was helped by being a little more memorable than Santorum or Bachmann, and Perry's "Oops" was the equivalent of the Howard Dean "HYAAA!"

GOP InTrade Watch 10/23

2011-10-23T21:33:00.000-07:00

As of October 23.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 66.5%
2. (2) - Rick Perry - 14.7%
3. (4) - Herman Cain - 7.2%
4. (7) - Newt Gingrich - 3.1%
5. (6) - Jon Huntsman - 2.5%
5. (8) - Ron Paul - 2.5%
7. (9) - Michelle Bachmann - 1.2%
8. (-) - Rick Santorum - .5%
8. (-) - Gary Johnson - .5%

My first thought might have been "Wow, Newt's fourth" but he's fourth at a mere 3.1%. He's fourth because Chris Christie and Sarah Palin have finally fallen out of the running.

Now that we have a few weeks' break from debates, the candidates can go out and capitalize.

Mitt Romney is in the best position and people with money know it. Rick Perry had a really good quarter, but have you noticed how much of that was raised before the debates started? With the last debate as the last taste in voters' mouths, I think Perry's going to go for a scorched-Earth sourthern strategy. He's going to go mean and negative and go farther than what the Bush team did to McCain in South Carolina in 2000, guaranteed. I think it will backfire, but only backfire enough to secure the nomination for Romney. After that, Mitt will be battered and bruised (we ain't seen nothin' yet) and Obama just has to hope for some positive ecominic number to combat Mitt with.

Obama's strength might be foreign policy, but you know who else had a strong foreign defense argument but a weak domestic one? George H.W. Bush. What happened to him?

As for Herman Cain, InTrade has never taken him too seriously. Cain strikes me as a guy who ran for president to increase book sales and speaking fees, and he's as surprised as anyone that he's suddenly at the top of the polls.

GOP CNN Debate in Vegas

2011-10-18T23:52:00.000-07:00

6:01 - That was one of the dumbest intros I think I've ever seen. Picture Movie-Trailer Guy narrating. "In a world where political mudslinging is another day at the office..."

6:02 - What the freak is Michelle Bachmann wearing? She looks like the eager young ensign ready to prove to her admiral that women can be in the Navy too.

6:04 - Perry looks like he's puffing out his chest on purpose. Remember in junior high when kids would come out of the weight room and act like their muscles were so huge their arms couldn't go all the way down to their sides, and they'd have this little strut? Kinda like that.

6:06 - My Twitter feed is already hilarious. @daveweigel @murphymike @gaypatriot @publiusdb @pattonoswalt @albertbrooks @randytayler @gopTODD #cnndebate

6:07 - Rick Santorum is the first opening statement and h uses it to convey some personal messages. Surprised it doesn't end with a request for his wife to text him if he needs to pick up anything at the grocery store on the way home.

6:08 - Herman Cain's lighting is weird. It's like the color on my TV disappeared.

6:09 - Rick Perry introduces himself as an AUTHENTIC conservative. Yes, he apronounced it in all caps.

6:10 - I'm not going to recap everything said, just give my impressions as I watch. My impression is that Bachmann should not have opened with a "what happens in Vegas" joke.

6:11 - First question comes from the audience, looks like Toupee Kevin from The Office, asks about replacing federal income tax with federal sales tax. Anderson Cooper interprets that as a question about 999 and wants Bachmann to answer first. Bachmann calls herself and her husband "job creators" before slamming the 999 plan.

6:12 - Herman Cain wants folks to read his analysis before they give "knee-jerk" reaction to his 999 plan. And the color is much better on Cain. Santorum then says "Herman's well-meaning, but..." and then rips apart the 999 plan. "It's not good for families." Cain counters Santorum with "that's simply not true."

6:13 - Bachmann tries to walk us through levels of production to demonstrate how Cain's plan is a value-added tax but it doesn't really go anywhere.

6:14 - Perry: "Herman, I love you, brother..." and then 30 seconds later calls him "brother" again. Really? Well, at least he didn't call him "son."

6:16 - Cain says it's not correct to compare apples to oranges. Then he throws in bread in there.

6:17 - Anderson brings in Ron Paul, hey you called it dangerous. Paul goes on for a while, but I can't help but think he has the same optic effect Dennis Kucinich had in 2007. But older.

6:19 - Anderson just now brings in Romney. Romney tries to clarify the 999 plan as far as state tax is concerned. Cain keeps saying apples and oranges, and Romney says "Well, Nevada doesn't want to pay a whole bushel basket of state and federal taxes." He then emphasizes how the middle class needs help. I realize that the arguments between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats want to tax rich people and Republicans want to tax poor people.

6:21 - Newt has a great one-liner to open. Man, if only Newt didn't have such a crappy personal life.

6:23 - Bachmann says everyone needs to pay something. She also wants to abolish the tax code, then flatten it. So, yeah, she wants to raise taxes on poor people.

6:24 - Anderson asks Rick Perry a question about what he thinks of Mitt Romney's 59-point plan and I can picture Lie to Me's Tim Roth stopping him there and saying, "Did you that tic on his face? He hasn't read it." Perry gets in one last shot at 999, then talks about his jobs plan, which consists of drilling for more oil. And gets as animated as I've ever seen him illustrating energy independence.

6:26 - Romney's answering but CNN keeps including Perry in the picture, and Perry looks like he wants to kill Romney.

6:27 - Santorum says that's fine but points how poor western Europeans are more likely to be able to move into higher income brackets than Americans because the manufacturing base is gone. Then somehow he flips that to ObamaCare and says Romney has no credibility in repealing. Then Santorum interrupts him and talks over him, and Romney gets an extra 30 seconds from Anderson so he can actually answer. Which made Romney look strong and Santorum look like, to put it politely, a jerk.

6:31 - Anderson pulls Newt in to pile on RomneyCare. Newt presents an example from Boston to show RomneyCare's flaws but also says it's not fair to say it's the same as ObamaCare. Romney points out we got the idea for an individual mandate from "you and the Heritage foundation." Bachmann begs for time to interrupt Romney to slam ObamaCare.

6:34 - Anderson throws us to commercial. And honestly, this debate is quite entertaining.

6:38 - Anderson asks Paul about ObamaCare. He gets applause for saying people should be able to "opt out of government medicine."

6:40 - Cain talks about getting government out of healthcare.

6:41 - Perry: Texas has some of the finest health-care in the world. But then he brings up illegal immigration. Um, why would he do that? Ah, he says Mitt hired illegals in his home and that is the HEIGHT of hypocrisy. Mitt can't help but laugh. Mitt starts to answer but Rick interrupts. Mitt actually puts his hand on Rick's shoulder to calm him down, and Mitt finally has to say "Anderson, Anderson, what are the debate rules here?"

So it's as though the candidates got together and said "The only way to beat Mitt Romney is to boldly attack him and then not let him answer. Meanwhile Mitt's shown that he's learned from the McCain/Huck/Rudy gang-beatdowns from 2007.

6:43 - Mitt points out Texas has increased 60% in illegal immigration. Rick then brings back that illegals worked on his property. Rick seriously looks pissed. He interrupts Mitt again. Mitt smacks him down. The crowd's loving it.

6:45 - Anderson points out Cain's "joke" about the border fence being electrified.

6:48 - Wow, First Officer Bachmann just said Obama's aunt and uncle are here in the US illegally and she'd deport them. She then says she wants a fence across the entire border. She will "enforce" English as official language of US.

6:49 - Perry, "by the time that fence gets built, there's a lot better way..." There's a split-screen with Perry and Bachmann. Perry's looking at Bachmann, and Bachmann's looking at the pretty lights.

6:50 - Romney slams Perry again on illegal immigration. Perry accuses Mitt of being #1 in job magnets for illegals. Audience boos; they're not buying it. Mitt even gets in a "sounds like the audience agrees with me.:

6:51 - Question from the audience. A Latino man who points out there are plenty of Latinos in this country and most of them did not come here illegally; what's the GOP going to do for us? Anderson throws it to Newt with the preface that Obama got 67% of the Latino vote in 2008. Newt gives a magnanimous answer that'd shoot anyone else up in the polls. But it's Newt.

6:53 - Paul says we put people in groups too much.

6:55 - Cain says what'll appeal to all ethnic groups is his bold plan to boost the economy.

6:56 - Anderson asks Perry if he'd get rid of the 14th Amendment. (He asked Cain but Cain didn't answer.) Perry doesn't want to answer either; he wants to talk about increases in oil drilling and coal mining to boost the economy. Then Anderson asks again if Perry would repeal the 14th Amendment and he says no. AC swings it to Bachmann and she says "Anchor baby."

6:58 - What will Santorum do for Latinos? "Family, faith, values..." He'll prevent the erosion of marriage and family. "Look, I'm for jobs too."

7:00 - Paul mentions bringing troops home from Afghanistan, and the audience is thrilled.

7:02 - Newt & Paul debate where to put nuclear waste. Mitt comes down on Paul's side.

7:04 - Perry agrees with Mitt & Paul, as though someone slipped him a message that he needs to agree with someone on something STAT!

7:06 - Santorum tries to slam Perry, Romney and Cain for supporting TARP.

7:08 - Bachmann boasts of talking to "moms" across this country losing their "nests." "Hold on, moms, it's not too late!"

7:09 - Anderson now asks about OccupyWallStreet. Cain says OWS shouldn't be in front of Wall Street; they should be in front of the White House. Loud applause for Cain in standing by his statement that if you're unemployed you should blame yourself. These GOP crowds cheer the worst things sometimes. Boo the gay soldier, cheer Perry's executing 200 people, shouting "yes" to let an uninsured man die.

7:10 - Paul says Cain's blaming the victims. Paul on the bail-outs: "If you had to give money out, you should have given it to the people losing their homes, not the banks." Paul's strongest moment of the night.

7:14 - Commercial!

7:19 - Anderson asks Santorum about religion being an issue, specifically about Mormonism being a cult. Crowd boos. Santorum: "Pay attention to candidate's values." Applause. He points out he's a Catholic. AC throws it to Newt. "Does faith matter? Absolutely."

7:22 - AC asks Perry if he'll repudiate the pastor's comments. Perry dances around that but gets to freedom of religion. And people are free to express their opinion. "I didn't agree with it, Mitt."

7:23 - Mitt points out the pastor said we should choose who we vote for based on religion, which is against what the founders would want.

7:25 - Bachmann gets a foreign policy question, and she's terrified of "genocidal maniac" running Iran getting a nuclear weapon.

7:26 - Newt slams both parties for their foreign policy stupidity. "I'm a hawk, but I'm a cheap hawk." Laughs and applause.

7:28 - Cain's weakest when talking about foreign policy, like he just started learning about foreign policy a couple months ago. But he knows we need to be friends with Israel.

7:32 - Paul pleads with his fellow candidates to "Cut something!" Be specific!

7:34 - Rick Perry wants to defund the United Nations. Huh.

7:35 - Mitt Romney wants China to pick up more of the international humanitarian-aid slack around the world. And then he rattles off five things he'd cut to Paul. Paul says cutting foreign aid should be the easiest thing to cut. AC says "Even Israel?" "I'd treat all countries equally." Paul says foreign aid is taking money from poor Americans to give to rich people in poor countries, uses Egypt as example.

7:36 - Bachmann says no, don't cut foreign aid to Israel!

7:38 - Cain likes Reagan's foreign policy of "Peace through strength."

7:39 - Paul asks everyone else if they're willing to condemn Reagan for Iran-Contra. Santorum tries to defend it, but Newt points out Reagan himself said it was a terrible mistake.

7:45 - AC asks the room to applaud if they think Romney can beat Obama. Some applause. AC then says to Santorum he's polling at 1%, why does he think he can win? Santorum points out he's the only one who can win in a swing state (Pennsylvania). Um, Rick, you got killed in your last re-election bid. Says Perry ran as a Democrat, Romney ran as a liberal, and that Santorum ran as a conservative and beat "James Carville and Paul Begala."

7:46 - Romney points out the people want to nominate someone who can beat Obama and fix the economy, deflates Santorum. Perry then takes the opportunity to point out Massachusetts had slow job growth. Romney ties Perry into a pretzel and spits him out. Perry tries to counter with "You were a failure as governor" and the crowd boos. Perry keeps forgetting they're in Nevada, not Texas.

7:49 - AC asks Cain if Romney or Perry should be president, and Cain says "No I should be" but Cain's warmer to Romney than Perry.

7:51 - AC says we're out of time, and Newt and Bachmann whine. Bachmann says "The cake is baked and Barack Obama will be a one-term president!" Bachmann drops Reagan's name, then Newt says "Maximizing bickering is not the road to the White House" and gets in his obligatory slam of the media.

7:53 - AC summarizes for us, and we get a shot of one of Mitt Romney's sons shaking Cain's hand.

So how'd they do?

7. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Shrill, whiny, and pro-raising taxes on the poor. Um, yeah. Man, that Ames straw poll was a million years ago, wasn't it?

6. RICK SANTORUM - He can draw blood, but he does not do himself any favors. Giant jerk. He can only weaken opponents; he cannot lift himself up.

5. RON PAUL - He's willing to take positions that no one else will, even though there are Republicans who agree with him. And while it may help him win straw polls, I haven't seen evidence it'll translate into caucus and primary wins.

4. RICK PERRY - He was more animated than he's ever been, but it looked like Romney really got under his skin, like Rick's next plan is to get the rest of Cobra Kai together to jump Romney-san in the parking lot. Perry got the most boos tonight, but that doesn't mean he didn't play well with southern voters. I just think Perry safely eliminated himself from winning Nevada or New Hampshire.

3. HERMAN CAIN - He got piled on for his 999 plan, which is looking weaker by the day. But he's so darn likeable! He defends his plan with gusto, and to his credit, at least he has a plan. It's just one that won't work. I don't see him staying up top much longer.

2. NEWT GINGRICH - The peacemaker. If Jon Huntsman had Newt's ideas and style in debates, he'd be a co-top-tier candidate. But he's Newt freaking Gingrich, the guy who was having an affair while slamming Clinton for the Lewinsky scandal, the guy who left his ailing second wife to hook up with his third.

1. MITT ROMNEY - He was ganged up on a bit there, and yet he emerged from him it, not unscathed, but he didn't lose. He still won. He looks like he's already positioning his campaign to a general-election campaign. He pushed back against the rudeness of the twin Ricks and looked like the better man after the dust settled.

GOP Bloomberg debate

2011-10-11T23:41:00.000-07:00

"Hi, I'm Charlie Rose--"

"Hi, I'm Katy Perry..."

That didn't just happen to me, did it? We got a weirdly crammed-in Proactiv commercial with Katy Perry before cutting back to the debate, and who gets the first question? Flavor of the week Herman Cain, that's who. It's on the economy.

CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan is bold.

PERRY - I think my plan's pretty bold for the energy industry. I'll lay out my plan in 3 days. It's time for energy independence. I have experience in reaching across the aisle.

ROMNEY - We need a leader. Obama had no leadership experience.

PERRY - "Youv'e had two months; what's your plan?" We need to pull back those regulations that are strangling the economy, doesn't matter if it's ObamaCare or Dodd-Frank, I'll lay out my plan in 3 days, not telling it all to you now. Mitt's had 6 years to lay out his 59-point plan; I've only been running for prez for 8 weeks.

BACHMANN - "Banks got bailed out and they paid themselves huge bonuses. Do u think it's right no Wall Street person has gone to jail for ruining the economy?" It was the federal govt's fault, it was Frank and Dodd that pushed govt-directed housing goals. Banks had to meet those lending rules. It began with Freddie and Fannie. Dodd-Frank institutionalized the problems with the bank.

GINGRICH - "Do the #OWS protesters have no grievance?" No, they're two groups protesting. One is left-wing agitators, the others are decent, concerned Americans. The former are proud to trash the place, the latter pick up after themselves. If you want to put people in jail, start with Dodd and Frank. Look at the Countrywide deal, the lobbyists they're close to. Everyone in the media who wants to go after Wall St. ought to start with the politicians. (applause) Bernanke has spent billions bailing out one group and not helping another group. It's corrupt and wrong.

PAUL - "Where do you come down on the Fed?" (laughter) $5 billion went to bail out foreign banks. We need to audit Fed. To understand the recession, you have to understand the Fed. The cause is the booms, bubbles, easy credit. They burst.

SANTORUM - "Can manufacturing jobs return?" Yes. I don't know any businessmen in PA who wanted to lose those jobs. [um, how many CEO's did he talk to?] The cool thing about my plan as opposed to Herman's is mine would pass.

HUNTSMAN - "Shouldn't the focus now be on the innovative jobs of tomorrow." I would disagree with Rick that PA is gas capital of country. DC is gas capital of country. When we lose out on innovation, entrepreneurship, we lose jobs to Chinese and Indians. We need a marketplace where we can transform innovation into products. Taxes, regulations holding us back.

GINGRICH - "Medicare is going broke; considering 1/2 of all Medicare spending is done in last 2 years of life, do u consider this wasteful spending?" Glad you asked. Do I want some DC bureaucrat to have say in med treatment? No. Palin was right about death panels. I'm opposed to class intervention for these things.

BACHMANN - "How can we be sure our Medicare spending isn't wasteful?" We know Medicare's going broke. We asked Obama 3 times what his plan was to save Medicare. 3rd time he said ObamaCare. [I'm sure that's exactly what he said.] 15 political appointees will make all the medical decisions under ObamaCare. [My bullcrap meter just went haywire.]

HUNTSMAN - "Who do you seek for economic advise, what type of people?" My father. Started with nothing, built up a great company. Our flat tax in Utah took it to #1 in job creation. Who on Earth from private sector would want to give up privacy to get into govt? We have a professional governing class on one end and private-sector on the other. Let's go back to a more open system where private-sector people can serve for a time and then go back to private life. "What do you think of Cain's 9-9-9 plan?" I thought it was the price of a pizza. (Laughter.) We need a bipartisan approach to tax reform. Simpson-Bowles had a lot of good in it.

CAIN - 9-9-9 will pass and it is well studied. Throw out the current tax code. This is why we developed 9-9-9. It will pass. "Who do you turn to for economic advise?" The American people. Also, Rich Lowrie. He's created wealth most of his career.

ROMNEY - "European debt has worsened. Global financial system is on the brink. What would you do different from Bush, Paulsen, Bernanke did in 2008?" That's a hypothetical. "No it's not. It's a very real threat." It's still hypothetical. But I can tell you I won't need to call Tim Geitner and say How does the economy work? If you think the entire world's finances are going to collapse, you take immediate action. I'm not interested in bailing out individual institutions. "Would you be open to the idea of another Wall St bailout?" No one wants that. "But would you do it again, you supported it in 2008." We were on the precipice. Was it perfect? No. Should they have used the funds to bail out GM & Chrysler? No. 'Do you agree with Gingrich about Bernanke?" I'd choose someone else. "Who?" I haven't chosen a replacement, I haven't chosen a VP, I might not be the nominee, slow down. I wish we could find Milton Friedman again, but I have respect for [lists three names]. I believe in drawing from the best minds in the country. I know how to protect American jobs. "So there's no institution too big to fail?" No, but you need to make sure we don't lose our country. Bailouts of individual institutions? No one wants that.

CAIN - "Did you support bailout?" I agree with Romney; the way it was implemented was wrong.

GINGRICH - Can I say something before we move on? Paulsen and Geitner didn't have a clue. Not that they're not smart; they just didn't know what was going to happen next. We're no better prepared now than we were then.

PAUL - Remember we need to get rid of the debt. It is the main burden on the economy.

Commercial break. The cut-away music sounds like something out of The Dark Knight.

When they come back, we get the last word of a Reagan quote.

PERRY - Different times. He was willing to raise taxes in exchange for spending reductions, but the reductions never came. We need a Balanced-Budget amendment. (quick light applause).

ROMNEY - "Don't we need compromise, like Reagan suggested?" The % of fed spending on economy keeps increasing. We need to get our economy growing. Raising taxes and cutting spending might work, but we really need to get the economy going. "Do you want to cut defense, or--" It's a terrible idea to cut defense, but to raise taxes is wrong. I want to see that supercommittee take responsibility to reform entitlements. "W/o any increase in revenue?"

GINGRICH - I want to say something here. The prez showed no leadership so they passed a stupid bill, where the choice is for a supercommittee to say around Thanksgiving, do you want to shoot yourself in the head or cut off your leg? It's stupid.

BACHMANN - Let's not give Obama another $2.4 trillion blank check to spend. {*sigh*. If it's for $2.4 trillion, it's not blank.] The travesty is that they spend $1.5 trillion mroe than that. Every year we spend 40% more of what we take in.

Here's a clip of Herman Cain giving his 9-9-9 plan.

CAIN - "The analysis shows your plan would've brought in less revenue and would still add a 9% natl tax on food and medicine." The analysis is wrong. 9-9-9 expands the base. [i.e. raises taxes on the middle-class and poor.] Independent firms scored it. "Under your plan, all Americans will pay more for milk, bread and beer." [someone jokes 'and pizza!'] The people will have the flexibility to choose how they spend more of their money.

BACHMANN - 9-9-9 is not a jobs plan, it's a tax plan. It gives Congress a pipeline of natl sales tax. This'd open the doot for VAT. [then she makes a joke about turning 9-9-9 upside down and the devil's in the details.]

Here's a clip of Romney calling China a currency manipulator.

HUNTSMAN - "If China's keeping its currency low, that means everything we buy from them is artifically cheap." I don't subscribe to the Donald Trump or Mitt Romney school of international trade. Trade wars disadvantages our small businesses and agricultures. We have no choice; we have to find common ground.

ROMNEY - You think China doesn't want a trade war? They're artificially keeping their prices low which is hurting jobs here. They're a currency manipulator. If you're not willing to stand up to China you'll get run over by them.

PERRY - We're missing this so much. We need to focus on getting America working again. We're sitting on treasure trove of energy. Pull regulations back. The manufacturing will come back. Free up this country's entrepreneurs.

Question from Honeywell CEO. "What would be on your American competitiveness agenda? Please focus on specifics."

SANTORUM - I already put forth a plan. I don't want to go to war with China; I want to beat China. How many people here want a national sales tax; raise your hand. [very few] There you go, Herman.

Charlie Rose then mentions if you keep mentioning 9-9-9 I have to go back to Herman Cain for every other question.

CAIN - Thank you.

SANTORUM - Wait, I've only had one question. I have experience-- "Time!" and I get it done-- "Time!"

CAIN - They want to pass what they think they can pass. 9-9-9 is a bold solution.

ROMNEY - We have to appeal ObamaCare. We have to return it to the states. We all agree with repeal and replace. And I'm proud I actually have a plan of something to replace it with.

HUNTSMAN - It's disingenuous. You can't just waive it away. ObamaCare is here.

Commercial break. Cut-away music is like something out of Braveheart, when the men are cleaning their swords right before they go to battle.

We're back. Matt Dowd and Trenchcoat Lady give their halftime analysis. Dowd's amused so much attention has been applied to Cain. Also found Perry weak for saying "I'll give you my plan in three days." Interested by the tension between Romney and Huntsman on China.

Another commercial break. And we're back with the Dark Knight-esque music.

Charlie Rose lets us know the candidates can now question each other. Going alphabetically.

BACHMANN to PERRY - "Reagan produced an economic miracle in the 1980's, but you were campaigning for Al Gore. Debt increased 50% in Texas. How can we trust you not to go down the Obama way?" I grew up a Democrat. I came to the GOP sooner in age than Reagan did. Texas has the 6th lowest debt per-capita when I started. Now it's 2nd.

CAIN to ROMNEY - "My 9-9-9 plan is transparent, fair and neutral. Can you name your 59-point plan and is it transparent, fair and neutral." Simple answers are nice but sometimes they're inadequate. Part of my plan deals with jobs, part with trade, we stop the cheating that goes on. It deals with rule of law. We have to have institutions that create human capital. We need great schools. We need govt that doesn't spend more than it takes in. 'So it's not simple." To get this economy going it'll take a lot.

GINGRICH to ROMNEY - "There's a lot in your plan I like, but it surprises me in your plan you have a capital-gains tax for only those lower than $200,000 a year." We give a tax break to middle America becuz they're the ones hurt most by this economy. I want to focus on the middle.

HUNTSMAN to ROMNEY - "I promise this won't be about religion." (uncomfortable titters) "Sorry about that, Rick. As former CEO of Bain Capital, a company that breaks down businesses and sells them off, and as governor of Mass. which was #47 in job creation when Utah was #1, how can you win the job-creation debate given your background?" Well, my background is much different than you describe. Bain Capital helped start businesses. We started Staples, the Sports Authority, we started a steel mill in Indiana. We net-created 10's of thousands of jobs.

PAUL to CAIN - "Since Fed is engine of interest rates and our ecomony, in the past youv'e been critical of those who would want to see them audited. You said no need for audit. Now we've found out how special businesses and companies and foreign countries get picked, do you still feel this way?" You've misquoted me. Be careful of what you get off the internet. When I was on Fed board in 1990's, we didn't do anything this Fed board is doing. I do not object to the Fed being audited. If someone wants to do that, go ahead. It doesn't bother me; it's not my top priority. My top priority is 9-9-9.

PERRY to ROMNEY - "Your advisor said ObamaCare is RomneyCare. How do you respond?" The great thing about running for prez is you can boast about your record. In Mass. we saw we had 8% uninsured so we dealt with them. Obama's not just dealing with the uninsured, he deals with everyone and he's raising taxes. And cutting Medicare. Obama cut Medicare. Mass. has lowest state of kids uninsured, Texas is highest uninsured. It was going down under Bush, it went up under you. As prez, I will repeal ObamaCare.

Rose tries to go to Santorum, but he points out ROmney's next. R before S. Many laughs at Rose's expense. Romney: "You'd think a PBS employee would know that."

ROMNEY to BACHMANN - "You've laid out bold ideas for scaling back govt, but expand on your ideas on helping Americans get back to work. Beyond tax policies, how are you going to help young people get back to work?" Go to my website. It's not just the tax-code. It's dealing with the regulations. I started my own business; I get job creation too.

[I think Romney pitched a softball to her to help her out. If she can rise back up in the polls, it only helps Romney.]

SANTORUM to CAIN - "I opposed the TARP program, it violated the spirit of our Constitution. The people on this panel who supported TARP are trying to saying they're the anti-DC crowd. My question is since Cain is naively giving DC a tool to Congress with natl sales tax, how do we know you won't give DC more tools?" There are three deterrants. The American people will hold Congress's feet to the fire, and as prez, I won't sign anything that raises taxes above 9-9-9.

Commercial break.

PERRY - "Health care." People are sitting around the kitchen table [about the fifth reference tonight to people sitting around the kitchen table] trying to figure out how to pay for insurance. The real issue for us is giving flexibility to Medicaid. Govnrs Jindal in LA [endorsed Perry] and Martinex in NM understand this too. "Texas has had 16 waivers for Medicaid." States shouldn't have to go to DC and ask Mother May I every time they have an idea.

CAIN - "One of the most important appointments you'd make would be Fed chairman. Who have you liked over the past 40 years?" Alan Greenspan. The way he oversaw the Fed, the way he coordinated with banks, I thought it worked fine in the 1990's. I have two names I will not give I'd considered to appoint as new Fed chairman if elected. I've got to keep them confidential.

PAUL - Spoken like an insider. Greenspan was a disaster. (applause). I'd say Paul Volcker at least knew how to end inflation. Nobody satisfies me. Greenspan ushered in the biggest bubble, but Bernanke inflated worse than Greenspan.

Audience question: "Business like mine have difficulty attaining credit. How to help?"

ROMNEY - Dodd and Frank were the wrong guys at the wrong time to usher in new legislation to implement financial regulations. Small businesses can't possibly deal with it. Small banks are starving becuz inspectors are making their jobs impossible.

BACHMANN - Dodd-Frank is the Jobs & Housing Destruction Act. I spoke with a banker who said he'd lose $20 million this year becuz of all the compliance. That's why we see this new $5 debit card fee. We need to end payoffs to political donors.

CAIN - I agree, repeal Dodd-Frank. Get rid of the capital gains tax. We know which plan gets rid of the capital gains tax.

PAUL - Yes, get rid of Dodd-Frank. Sarbanes-Oxley needs to be repealed too. [Woo-hoo!] Republicans did that; we hurt ourselves. Not all problems started in the last 3 years.

PERRY - "Your own state auditor had problems." We feel like there's been extraordinary oversight in Texas. That's why we went up in jobs net while US went down.

Video clip of G.W. Bush saying the more that own homes, the better off we'll be.

GINGRICH - There's a stream of American thought that wishes the US would wither and weaken so the govt could take over. It started with Carter and the malaise speech. I'm shocked the House reps haven't repealed Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley.

CAIN - The Wall St. protestors should be targetting the government, not Wall Street.

ROMNEY - "If the Bush tax cuts are not extended, that means a tax increase for everyone." No one wants to see tax increases. Obama's jobs plan keep yielding no results. You need to not have temporary tax cuts. That creates uncertainty. "You'd be okay with the temporary payroll tax cut expiring...?" I don't like little temporary band-aid tax cuts.

PERRY - "Over the last 30 years, the wealthiest 1% income has grown by over 300%, but we have more in poverty now than ever. is that fair; what would you do to change that?" The reason we have so many in pvoerty is because this prez is a job-killer. That's what's wrong with US today. He's overtaxed, overregulated. [how many taxes has Obama raised since he's been in office?] They're laying off people.

SANTORUM - Part of the poverty problem is the breakdown of the American family. We need to talk about economics in the home. It's our foundation as a country. You can't have a wealthy society w/o family. We need to encourage marriage.
[someone in the audience yells something angry at Santorum]

Charlie Rose asks for closing statements.

BACHMANN - We don't need Big Govt to step in if we as a society take care of each other.

CAIN - I was po' before I was poor. My dad worked three jobs. Our leaders need to surround themselves with the right people to make the right decisions. We need a bold plan.

GINGRICH - I grew up as an Army brat. Voters aren't going to hire us becuz we say "We sympathize with you. They hire us becuz we say 'This is how we'll solve it.' Every person at tis table is more likely to solve it than Obama. (mild applause)

PAUL - We have to understand what libery is all about. Free market and sound money is key to success. I want to restore American greatness.

SANTORUM - When manufacturing leaves, middle America leaves. Upward mobility is greater in Europe than America today. I will bring back manufacturing jobs.

HUNTSMAN - I've participated in growing a company that creates jobs, I presided over a state with 2.4% unemployment. We're seeing a rise of spousal abuse, suicides, etc. you see the impact of the dignity of having a job.

PERRY - I've got CEO experience and wokring with private sector in creating jobs. That's what people are begging for.

ROMNEY - People are out of work, incomes going down. Being American means confidence in the future. We need a leader who believes in America. I'm absolutely devoted to making America strong.

Charlie Rose thanks us for watching.

Some of my impressions:

- What yahoos are running the Bloomberg channel? Commercials just suddenly start in the middle of the show, then it cuts back too late. I guess they're still young.

- Ultimately this debate won't matter much, but I hope it influences the way future debates go. Having the candidates question each other was more interesting than the moderators doing it.

How would I rank them?

8. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She's fading into the background and seems most likely to say something wildly inaccurate. She really finds NO fault with bankers or Wall Street in our current economic situation? The softball Romney pitched to her, she bunted with platitudes.

7. RICK SANTORUM - He serves as a nice attack dog in the debate, which might hurt those he attacks but never himself. He helped hurt Perry in a previous debate, and he landed the strongest blow against Cain in this debate, but does that mean more votes for himself? No. You don't want to be the only candidate that illicits angry shouting from the audience.

6. RICK PERRY - The moderators and fellow candidates treated him like a second-tier candidate, and he did nothing to dispel that. This is his, what, fourth debate? And he still doesn't have a plan? Has he not noticed what his trajectory is? He's still too general and too simplistic on the economy. Income disparity over the past 30 years is not solely because of Obama.

5. JON HUNTSMAN - Most likely to crack a joke, and half of them fell flat. I'd like to hear Huntsman and Romney debate China more. It's still too crowded a field for him to emerge, but he's more likely to be one of the first to be asked to leave.

4. RON PAUL - The guy wins straw polls no matter what he says in debates. But his slam on Greenspan right after Cain praised him was quite effective. And it would sure make my life easier if Sarbanes-Oxley was repealed.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - For a guy who started these debates as the cranky one, he now seems to be going on a charm offensive. I think it's working. If Cain can suddenly go from "why is he here?" to #1 Not-Romney candidate in less than a month, Newt could pull something off. I just don't see him overcoming his bio.

2. HERMAN CAIN - He hammered his 9-9-9 plan early and often. Doesn't seem to matter that it'll raise taxes on the poor while lowering taxes on the rich. It's simple and easy to understand, and Cain's message is catching fire. He was treated like the co-front-runner and responded well to the heat. I think he may be damaged over time for praising Greenspan as the best Fed head in the past 40 years, and the fact that one of the 9's in his 9-9-9 is a national sales tax.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Again, no one touched him, though Huntsman seemed to be the only one willing to try. The closest anyone came was when one of the questioners tried to pinpoint Romney on Europe's economy possibly collapsing, and he didn't want to answer a "hypothetical." I would say he has New Hampshite sewn up.

Google "Going to Hell" experiment

2011-10-08T12:03:00.001-07:00

So I went to Google to see how many hits I would get on this phrase

All _________ are going to hell.

Here were the amount of results each gave me, ranked in order of hit total (in millions):

Racists - 30.4
Homosexuals - 23.1
Republicans - 22.9
Jews - 22
Democrats - 21.2
Murderers - 18.3
Millionaires - 16
Communists - 15.7
Atheists - 13.9
Buddhists - 12.1
Catholics - 6.57
Rapists - 5.77
Agnostics - 4.59
Christians - 3.9
Muslims - 3.48
Mormons - 3
Child Molesters - 1.97
Hindus - 1.85
Environmentals - 1.25
Scientologists - .711
Jehovah's Witnesses - .281

Then I changed to

"___________ is going to hell"

and put in some names.

(The quotations are important. I got 9 million hits on John English is going to hell but zero hits on "John English is going to hell"). Though by doing this, there's now going to be at least one result. Oh well.

George W. Bush - 8230
Sarah Palin - 7830
Glenn Beck - 2740
Casey Anthony - 1870
Dick Cheney - 1430
Osama bin Laden - 760
Bill Maher - 265
Mitt Romney - 10
Barack Obama - 7
Rick Perry - 7
Adolf Hitler - 4

Perry surrogate revives sectarianism

2011-10-08T11:01:00.000-07:00

Well, you knew it was going to come. Huckabee started the whisper campaign in 2007, and it worked. Now that Perry's slipping, and Herman Cain is rising as the top non-Romney candidate, Perry had to do something. He didn't smash the place up. He just hung the red flag in the china shop, left the front door open, then untied the bull. Plausible deniability.

Some quotes I found on it:

Andrew Sullivan: "If you wonder why Romney cannot quite seal the deal, Pastor Jeffress has part of the answer. If you turn a political party into a church, as the GOP essentially now is, sectarianism will eventually emerge. In all its ugly, bigoted, negative manifestations. Perry is showing he can play a card from the bottom of the deck when he's up against it. Which is not a good sign for next year."

And hey, Mitt Romney: "Our values ennoble the citizen, and strengthen the nation. We should remember that decency and civility are values too. One of the speakers who will follow me today, has crossed that line. Poisonous language does not advance our cause. It has never softened a single heart nor changed a single mind. The blessings of faith carry the responsibility of civil and respectful debate. The task before us is to focus on the conservative beliefs and the values that unite us – let no agenda, narrow our vision or drive us apart."

Sarah Palin Not Running

2011-10-05T16:00:00.001-07:00

After months and months of teasing, Sarah Palin decided to not run for president and stay at her $1 million analyst job at Fox News Channel.

I can't help but wonder whom this will affect more. Mitt Romney probably wanted her to run, someone to muddy the Not-Romney waters. Herman Cain may be the flavor of the week, but he rose so quickly to win the Florida straw poll that I can't help but wonder if he could just as quickly fade. Rick Perry's supposedly fading, but I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. All he needs is one good debate performance. Judging from past debates though, I see Cain doing better than Perry.

Romney, meanwhile, had a much easier row to hoe attacking Perry. How is supposed to handle Cain? Romney's been making a big deal about how he's not a career politician and he has private-sector experience. Cain has never held public office and has private-sector experience. Does Romney need to now emphasize his four years as the governor of Massachusetts?

GOP InTrade Watch

2011-09-29T17:56:00.000-07:00

As of September 29.

It's been about six weeks since I last checked these numbers, which was right after the Iowa debate.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 47.9%
2. (2) Rick Perry - 23.9%
3. (9) Chris Christie - 8.5%
4. (-) Herman Cain - 5.4%
5. (3) Sarah Palin - 4.5%
6. (4) Jon Huntsman - 4.0%
7. (10) Newt Gingrich - 2.9%
8. (7) Ron Paul - 2.5%
9. (6) Michelle Bachmann - 2.0%
10. (-) Mike Huckabee - 2.0%
-- Rick Santorum - 1.0%
-- Gary Johnson - 0.6%

Out of top 10: Tim Pawlenty, Rudy Guiliani

Six weeks ago, Romney and Perry were neck-and-neck. A couple more debates, and Romney's blown open a wide lead.

It's still amusing to me that two of the top five aren't running for president. Oh, Palin can tease. My hunch though is that there's a section of GOP donors who believe all she'd do is syphon votes from Perry and assure Romney's win, whereas Christie would syphon voters from both and could possibly win the nomination, providing he's a better debater than Perry.

Bachmann's fall after winning the Ames straw poll has been remarkable. "Wow, that was a fast implosion," said Howard Dean.

Santorum and now Johnson are wasting our time. I'd love it if the next debate was whittled down to seven. Or six.

Mitt Romney ahead in Iowa?

2011-09-29T05:20:00.001-07:00

The latest polling shows Mitt Romney ahead in Iowa. Wow, didn't see that coming so soon. Rick Perry's poor debate showings have taken their toll. Combine that with Romney winning a straw poll in Michigan and Herman Cain winning one in Florida, with each passing day it's looking like Perry blew his chance at the presidency.

Fox News/Google GOP Debate

2011-09-23T08:36:00.000-07:00

Bret Baier introduces the candidates in order of popularity: Perry, Romney, Paul, Bachmann, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum, Huntsman, Johnson.

1. How will you help small business hire new employees?

PERRY - lower taxes, deregulate, tort reform, Injury lawyers, stay out off Texas. If it works in Texas, it'll work in DC. Baier: "Where's your jobs plan?" Look what we did in Texas. People understand Texas is special. #1 for relocation five years in a row.

ROMNEY - Baier: "WSJ calls you jobs plan timid". Obama's done everything wrong. It helps to have had a job to create a job. Our tax rates have to be competitive. Govt and regulators have to be allies of business not foes. Crack down on cheaters like China. I have 59 points in my plan. Baier: "What do you consider rich? Half-million?" I want everyone in America to be rich. I want everyone to have opportunities.

Baier tells viewers they can go to foxnews.com and vote on how rich is rich.

BACHMANN - Kelly: "How much of what I earn should I be allowed to keep?" Every dollar. Obama thinks it belongs to him. Obviously we have to give money back to govt to run govt.

2. With unemployment above 9%, would you support a federal right-to-work law?

SANTORUM - Kelly: "22 right-to-work states, 28 union states." We need to focus on public unions. Growing fastest, costs us the most, bankrupts states. They make up their private-sector equivalents. Get rid of public unions. (Applause.)

GINGRICH - Kelly: "Would you extend unemployment benefits?" Unemployment should be tied to training, so you can spend those 99 weeks training, not doing nothing. Let the states experiment with this and not pretend DC knows best.

HUNTSMAN - Wallace: "You subsidized clean energy in Utah. How's that different from Solyndra?" My wife's from here in Orlando. We have tough decisions. We need to fix the economy. We've learned subsidies don't work. Everyone wants to draw from the sun and the wind, but right now that doesn't work. Wallace: "But you'd said you'd subsidize natural gas." I will dance around that answer.

Huntsman's power-yellow tie puts Cain's pale-yellow tie to shame.

CAIN - Wallace: "Let's talk about your 9-9-9 plan." No danger in implementing it. No one answered the small-business question. This ecomony is on life support. Throw out the current tax code. My plan will treat everyone the same. Unlike Romney, mine throws the old code out. That dog won't hunt.

ROMNEY - My intent to help the people most hurt by Obama's ecomony. My plan is geared toward the middle class.

3. How do you plan to restore the 10th Amendment and allow states to govern themselves?

PAUL - The Prez should veto every bill that violates the 10th Amendment. Wallace: "You have more time." Any govt we want is proper at local levels. Let me throw out some libertarian meat.

JOHNSON - Baier: "What makes you a better libertarian candidate than Paul?" I won't presume that, but I have unique experience. I was a handyman. I promise a balanced-budget amendment. I promise to veto any bill where expenditures exceed revenue. I'm the #1 vetoing governor. I'd implement the fair tax.

It's a two-hour debate. It took 20 minutes to get everyone to be able to get in an answer. This is why we need less candidates on the stage, not more.

Here Fox News pats itself on the back for being the most interactive debate ever. The online poll marks $1 million + as "rich" with 44% of the votes. Then Baier refers to a word cloud where "illegal" is the biggest word. Huh?

PERRY - Kelly: "Gov. Romney has been hammering you on Social Security." We have made a solemn oath to those on SS, it will be there. Not the first time Mitt's been wrong (two people clap). In Massachusetts, 96% on that program are off. (?)

ROMNEY - Well, that's different than what's in your book. There's a Rick Perry out there that says SS is unconstitutional. You'd better find that Rick Perry and get him to stop saying that. (Good line.) Let's make SS stable for the next 75 years.

PERRY - Speaking of books, RomneyCare was a bust and that's what ObamaCare was all about. Your hardcover book said Americans need RomneyCare, your paperback took that out.

ROMNEY - We were talking about SS but we can talk health-care. I said no such thing. It was a state plan. It's fine if you want to retreat from your words in your book but I won't retreat from mine. I believe in what I did. Read my book. Kelly: "Bachmann said Obama ushered in socialism. Gingrich when asked if Obama was socialist said 'Sure.' Do you believe Obama is a socialist?" Let me tell you the title I want to assign to Obama. "Former President Barack Obama.' I beleive in America. I believe in opportunity, freedom, free enterprise. I believe the govt is too big or we won't continue to be a free economy. I only spent four years as governor. I didn't inhale. (laughs)

HUNTSMAN - Kelly: "Would you raise taxes on millionaires, as 66% want according to polls?" This is not the time to raise taxes. We need to fix our taxes. WSJ endorsed our plan. Remove all deductions and have three rates of 8-14-23. Reduce corporate taxes to 25%. We need to fix structural problems.

4. If forced to eliminate one department from government, which one would you eliminate?

CAIN - If forced, I'd start with the EPA. (applause.) It's out of control. "The EPA has gone wild." They regulate dust. Now for the rest of my time, I'd like to propose the Chilean model for fixing SS. We're not doing a service to Americans by bantering about what you call SS. Fix it!

GINGRICH - Kelly: "How can you slash spending by 40%?" By the way you describe the question, you can't. We might as well buy Greek bonds and go down together. next week I'm going to outline a 21st century Contract with America. I helped Kemp and Reagan in 1980. (For those who had 'Reagan' in your GOP drinking game, take your first gulp here.) I think it's doable and it takes real leadership.

5. I see teachers more focussed on federal mandates and trying not to get sued than education. What would you do about massive government overreach in the classroom?

JOHNSON - I'll reduce fed spending by 43%. I'll abolish Dept of Education. It gives 11 cents to each states with 16 cents worth of strings attached.

SANTORUM - Dept of Education doesn't serve the customer. It's parents' responsiblity to educate children. That has to change or education will not improve.

GINGRICH - Dramatically shrink Dept. of Education. Adopt pell grants for K-12 so parents could choose public, private or home-school.

PAUL - If you care about education you'll get govt out of educating our kids. We as GOP put in No Child Left Behind. Get rid of it. We should give tax credits to those who opt out.

PERRY - Lot of good ideas here on the side. (I'm in the middle.) Voucher systems. Everyone here but Romney is right on education.

ROMNEY - Nice try. Education needs to be at the local level. The best thing for education is great teachers. School choices. Test the children. As president, I'll stand up to natl teachers union. Baier: "Was Perry wrong on anything?" I'm not sure what he's saying.

BACHMANN - I'm a mom of 5 biological and 23 foster kids. We were concerned about our kids education. I'd repeal entire federal regulation law, I'd turn off the lights in Dept of Education and send all the $$$ back to the states.

CAIN - We must encourage and provide choices in education. Get fed govt out of education.

HUNTSMAN - I signed the second voucher bill in the US. I've actually done something about this.

BACHMANN - Wallace: "Border security?" Enforce laws on the books. Have fence cover every inch of southern border. No tuition breaks for illegals!

6. Do you support legislation requiring employers to use E-Verify? Will you impose penalties against businesses that continue to hire illegal workers.

GINGRICH - Outsource E-Verify to American Express because they know how to run a proram like that w/o massive fraud. I favor 100% control of border, English as offcl language of govt (applause), modernize legal visa system, make it easier and more practical.

ROMNEY - In Texas you get $22,000 tuition credit if you're illegal alien. You have to pay more if you're citizen from another state. That makes no sense. (Applause.) We have to have fence, border patrol, system like E-Verify, crack down on employers who hire illegals, get rid of magnet for illegals.

PERRY - Nobody on this stage has worked more on border security than I have. We have our Texas Ranger recon teams there now. Every day I have Texans on that border. If you say we shouldn't educate illegals, you have no heart. This was a state issue, we only had four dissenting votes when it passed. (Applause, followed by boos.)

SANTORUM - Wallace: "Is Perry soft on illegal immigration?" Nobody up here is suggesting illegals can't go to college. Most people have to pay the full load. Why do we have to subsidize the illegal students? Why give preferential treatment? I'd say he's soft on illegal immigration.

PERRY - Rick, have you ever even been to the border? (yes) To build a 1200-mile wall/border makes no sense. You puts boots on the ground. (does it work in Texas?) When I'm president (answer the question!) I will secure the border.

SANTORUM - Are you going to answer the question? Wallace: "He answered it."

PAUL - Wallace: "Do you know Americans who are ready to flee the US over the economy?" Too much regulation, too weak currency. If you care about your personal liberty, quit blaming illegal aliens for everything. Attack their benefits. No free rides, no birthright citizenship.

Fox News shows some Google trends, the the online poll wants Education cut - 47%

7. As president, how would you address Hamas, Hezbollah, etc. threats to Israel?

ROMNEY - Obama handled this wrong. He went around the world and apologized for America. Obama threw Israel under the bus. If you disagree with an ally, you discuss it in private. Stand behind your friends. Let the entire world know we will defend them. It's unacceptable for Iran to become a nuclear country.

CAIN - Reagan philopsophy of peace through strength. This admin isn't clear how we stand with Israel.

PERRY - Baier: "If you got a call at 3am, and you got a call that the Taliban had seized Pakistan's nuclear weapons, what's your first move?" Before it gets to that point, you need a relationship. Our allies need to understand clearly we'll stand with them. We should be better to India and Taiwan.

SANTORUM - Baier: "If Iraq's govt crumbled, would you support sending troops back?" We shouldn't be out in the first place. We need tens of thousands to make sure it's a smooth transition.

8. When are we going to get someone in the White House to stop sending billions of dollars overseas to countries that hate us?

GINGRICH - Replace virtually all govt-to-govt aid, have incentives instead. When you have countries who vote against you constantly in UN, why are we giving them money?

JOHNSON - Biggest threat to our natl security is we're bankrupt. Balanced-budget amendment. Reduce military spending. Military alliances are key to others picking up slack. Trade promotes friendship. We should revisit Cuba.

BACHMANN - Bret, can I weigh in on this? Cuba is a state sponsor of terror.

HUNTSMAN - I need to respond to Santorum. I'm the only one here with real foreign policy experience. Our core is broken. We're 25% of the world's GDP. The world is better off when the US is strong. It's time to come home from Afghanistan. (Applause.)

SANTORUM - Just because our economy is sick doesn't mean our country is sick or our values are sick. We shouldn't fight wars for politics, and our generals are fighting with one arm tied behidn their back.

HUNTSMAN - Only Pakistan can save Pakistan, only Afghanistan can save Afghanistan, and only America can save America. (Applause.)

BACHMANN - Kelly: "Is there limit on govt's ability to inject religion into public square?" The US govt should not be a state church. That's the fundamental point. All people should be free to express their belief in God.

9. Do you intend to circumvent the progress that's been made for gays in the military?

SANTORUM - Any sexual activity has no place in the military, and the fact that they've made it a provision and give them a special privilege by removing Don't Ask Don't Tell, I believe it undermines the military's ability. Kelly: 'What would you do as president about soldiers that are out?" Social experimentation, I'd reinstitute Don't Ask Don't Tell but would not throw out the ones that are already out. Keep it to yourself.

PAUL - Kelly: "How can you support rape exception or morning-after pill if you believe life begins at conception?" How do you police the day-after pill? It doesn't make sense practically. No one can outprespect me with life, but the law doesn't solve the problem, only the moral character of the people.

PERRY - Kelly: "Bad blood between you and Bush?" I called and wished him happy birthday. We differ in style and substance. I was vocal against Medicaid part-B and No Child Left Behind.

CAIN - Wallace: "You survived colon & liver cancer." (Applause.) "You say if ObamaCare if you were first being treated, you'd be dead now. Why?" My cancer was detected in March 2006 to the end of the year, I was able to get the necessary CAT scans, tests, chemo, surgery, recoup, etc. If we'd been under ObamaCare and a bureaucrat was trying to tell me when I could get care, I only had 30% chance of survival. Doctors said my speed of care helped save me.

10. As a college student, to allow us to stay on parents insruance longer was a godsend. Will you repeal that provision of ObamaCare?

HUNTSMAN - When I hear this discussion, I think of my daughter with diabetes. This ObamaCare bomb is creating such uncertainty. Let's go to the states and experiment and find break-throughs. Do what we did in Utah, we need afforable health insurance.

BACHMANN - Wallace: "You were wrong about HPV causing mental retardation." I was just relaying what a woman told me, but it was wrong for govt to mandate a vaccine. Perry made a decision where he gave parental rights to a big drug company. That company gave him capign contributions and his former chief of staff was their lobbyist.

PERRY - I got lobbied on this issue, lobbied by a woman who had Stage IV cervical cancer. I've admitted we should have had an opt-in, but I don't understand what part of "opt-out" parents don't get. i erred on the side of life. Wallace: "Texas has one of the hardest list of restrictions to get on Medicaid." Each state shoudl decide how they do health-care, not one size fits all. People continue to move to Texas, because we've created a state where opportunity is the word of the day.

ROMNEY - Wallace: "Perry called RomneyCare socialist and said we shouldn't elect Obama-Lite." I don't think he knows what he's talking about regarding that. Our plan in Mass has good parts and bad parts. One thing you heard from Cain is crucial, we should get rid of ObamaCare. I'd do an executive order on Day 1.

PERRY - I think Americans just don't know sometimes what Mitt Romney they're dealing with. He was for standing up for Roe v Wade before he was against it. He was for ObamaCare before he was against it.

ROMNEY - Nice try. I wrote a book two years ago. My positions are laid out in that book, I stand by them. You wrote a book six months ago and you're already retreating from your positions there. "Words have meaning."

Baier - a question for the candidates. Pres. Obama promised hope and change. I'm asking how you're going to turn this country around.

HUNTSMAN - This is a human tragedy with 15 million unemployed. I would drop 3 things on the steps of Congress. 1. Tax plan 2. Deregulate 3. Energy independence.

CAIN - It starts with economic growth, I have my 9-9-9 plan, but there is a severe leadership deficiency in DC. Reagan said we're a shining city on the hill, we're sliding down that hill. I'd get us back on top of that hill.

BACHMANN - The #1 reason employers aren't hiring is becuz of ObamaCare; it's the first thing I'd do.

ROMNEY - All across America, people are trying to see if they have enough money to get to the end fo the month. These are tough times but we are a patriotic people. We need a leader who tells the truth, has integrity and leads, we'll turn things around.

PERRY - We get rid fo ObamaCare, we get rid of EPA or job-killing regulations. Make America energy independent. (Didn't Huntsman give that answer?)

PAUL - I've been warning about economic bubbles for 20 years. Deal with Fed, deal with free markets, deal with tax and regulatory systems. People create jobs, not govt.

GINGRICH - 32 years ago we were in the same place. We had a failing presidency, the Soviet Union was on offense. Reagan said 'When your brother-in-law's unemployed, it's a recession. When you're unemploed, it's a Depression. When Jimmy Carter's unemployed, it's a recovery." Obama needs to lose decisively.

SANTORUM - We have a pres. who doesn't understand what America's all about. Reagan belived in you. Obama's the new King George III ruling from on high.

JOHNSON - My next-door neighbor's dogs have created more shovel-ready jobs than this administration. (Biggest laugh of night; too bad it's a joke Rush Limbaugh's already told.) Balance the federal budget now, not 20 years from now. If getting rid of corporate taxes doesn't create tens of millions of jobs, I don't know what does.

11. If you had to pick someone on this stage as your VP, who would it be?

JOHNSON - Paul. We're heading to a monetary crisis.

SANTORUM - I would pick whoever would do what I would do. I'd probably pick Gingrich.

GINGRICH - I don't have any idea who I would pick. It would have to be someone capable. These are all friends of mine, I can't imagine hurting their feelings by picking one.

PAUL - I'm in third place now, so when I'm in the top two I'll start thinking about it.

PERRY - Staying with the game-show idea, if you could combine Cain & Gingrich you'd have a really interesting VP.

ROMNEY - There are a couple images I'm going to have a hard time getting out of my head. If you're lucky enough to get the nomination of this party. Every one up here would be a better president than Obama. Baier: "You called Perry unelectable over SS." I didn't use that word, the newspaper did, but we all agree we need to make Obama a former president,

BACHMANN - Obama hasn't gone to the basement. We need to choose a candidate who represents consitutional conservatives.

CAIN - It's hypothetical. I'll play the game. If Romney would throw out his jobs plan and replace it with 9-9-9, he has a shot. If he won't, I'd probably go with Gingrich. But it is a game.

HUNTSMAN - I'm tempted to say Perry & Romney will bludgeon each other to death, reminds me of Guiliani & Thompson in 2008. I'd pick Cain. Our yellow ties show we support the gold standard.

So how did they do, really?

9. GARY JOHNSON - First time there, and he looks like a frumpled suit. His dogs line got a laugh but otherwise there was no point to him being there.

8. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She's fading into the woodwork. Her answers are getting repetitive, and the "HPV causes mental retardation" has backfired on her. No regaining of mojo at this debate.

7. RON PAUL - Another guy who's suffering from repetition and generalities. Never really got off his platitudinal talking points.

6. RICK SANTORUM - He had more confidence and crisper answers, but a major misfire when he got the YouTube question from the gay soldier. Not only did a few boos break out, but Santorum didn't defend him or thank him for his service, he just said all outed soldiers won't be thrown out but any new recruits will be back under the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy. Really? How's that supposed to work?

5. JON HUNTSMAN - No bad jokes this time around. He's positioning himself as the palatable center-right candidate and was strongest on the foreign-policy questions.

4. RICK PERRY - Whenever he'd swipe at Mitt, Romney had a stronger counter-punch. At this point, his plan seems to be to drag Romney down into the mud. His foreign policy answers seemed shaky, and his response on illegal immigration failed with the audience. The worse Perry does, the more tempting it must be for Chris Christie or Sarah Palin to say, "Okay, fine, I'll run!"

3. NEWT GINGRICH - He's doing better at conveying a sunny attitude than in previous debates. He's magnanimous with his opponents and specific in his answers. If he had a different bio, he'd be a viable candidate.

2. HERMAN CAIN - His strongest showing yet. Maybe the VP slot is a possibility for him after all.

1. MITT ROMNEY - It's much nicer for him this time around without John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Guiliani pounding away on him during every debate. He really only has to deal with Perry, and he's clearly outmatching him. "Nice try" is his "There you go again."

CNN Tea Party Debate

2011-09-12T21:39:00.000-07:00

- Is it just me? As Wolf Blitzer introduced them and the candidates came out one by one, I wanted each to have their own theme music and pyrotechnics. "Rick 'The Social Piranha' Santoooooruuum!"

Intro:

HUNTSMAN - Today we're deeply divided; I have the experience and leadership to move this country forward.

CAIN - I'm the only non-politician here.

BACHMANN - I want to repeal Dodd-Frank and Obamacare. I'm the founder of the Tea Party Caucus.

ROMNEY - America's economy is in crisis. I understand jobs.

PERRY - I'm proud to be here today and want to make DC as inconsequential in your life as I can.

PAUL - Been in Congress for 20 years, my plan has always been to obey the Constitution.

GINGRICH - In the spirit of 9/12 I hope to work WITH you.

SANTORUM - I won in a state with more Democrats than Republicans.

"How will you convince senior citizens that Social Security and Medicare need to be changed, and how will you get their votes?"

BACHMANN - Obama "stole" $5 billion out of Medicare to switch to Obamacare. I've had feet in the private sector and a foot in the public sector. Seniors can count on my "core of convictions."

PERRY - The folks on Social Security are "slam-dunk guaranteed" that I won't call it a Ponzi scheme tonight. We need to fix it.

- Romney turns to completely face whoever's answering.

ROMNEY - I'll remind people Perry said "Ponzi scheme." Perry also said in his book SS was forced on us.

PERRY - If Mitt's trying to say they made the right decisions in the 30's and 40's, I disagree. (mild applause)

ROMNEY - But do you still believe SS should be discontinued as a federal program?

PERRY - I...

ROMNEY - Answer the question.

PERRY - You're trying to scare people.

ROMNEY - You said "Ponzi scheme" not me.

PERRY - You called SS "criminal" in your book. (Hoots from audience.)

ROMNEY - Quote me correctly, I said the way Congress was dealing with SS was criminal.

PAUL - I agree SS is broke; we spent all the money. I tried to pass a bill to keep SS money from being raided for these nonsense wars. Young people need to get out of SS. My plan is...

"Wait, let me get Cain in here."

CAIN - It's broken. The citizens of Galveston, TX, opted out and they're getting 50% more than they would've out of SS. It worked in Chile. Personal retirement accounts.

HUNTSMAN - Drama queens. Romney called it a fraud. Perry called it a Ponzi scheme. We're frightening Americans who want solutions.

GINGRICH - I'm not worried about Romney & Perry frightening the American people when Pres. Obama does it every day. (Big pop from audience.) That's not a rhetorical joke. If you're younger and would like a personal acct to control instead of the politicians, you should have the right to choose.

"Santorum are you with Romney or Perry on SS?"

SANTORUM - The question is, who's with me? I knew in 1994 this day was coming. I have the courage to tell the truth. I have a track record of courage. I have mad courage skills.

"What is your plan to balance the budget?"

GINGRICH - It's a Washington mythology. I balanced the budget four years in a row. See if the SuperCommittee dares to do it right. There's so much waste.

SANTORUM - We have to make sure there's a prescription drug component in Medicare. I had courage on this issue. DC believes they know better than you how to do your health-care.

PERRY - There's a $17 trillion hole in our budget. In Texas we combined HHS from 10 to 5 agencies.

ROMNEY - I'd reform Medicare and SS. We talk about waste, but we're not going to balance the budget just by cutting out waste. We need cut fed spending and pass a Balanced Budget Amendment. We need to grow the economy to raise revenue.

PAUL - We spend $1.5 trillion overseas in wars we don't need to be in; we need to cut there. And it still wouldn't be enough. Cut the Depts of Education and Energy. (Applause.)

BACHMANN - Too many believe the govt is there to "buy people more stuff." We need more personal responsibility.

Commercial break.

"What would you do to get the economy moving forward, do you have a plan, and what is it?"

HUNTSMAN - We're seeing a human tragedy. Millions unemployed, millions given up on finding jobs. My plan is based on what I did as governor. New tax code. Strip loopholes and lower rates. We need to ger rid of our heroin-like addiction to foreign oil.

PERRY - Obama's last stimulus produced zero jobs. Free up regulation and this economy will take off "like a rocket-ship." Reform the tax code. People are tired of spending money we don't have on programs we don't want.

BACHMANN - When you have a trillion in spending you don't pay for, the deficit will go up, and now the Prez wants to do it again. We shouldn't have raised the debt ceiling. He wants to borrow more from China. Repeal Dodd-Frank, repeal Obamacare. (Applause.)

CAIN - This economy is on life-support. Throw out the entire tax code and put in my 9-9-9 code. 9% business tax, 9% income tax, 9% fed sales tax. US businesses will create jobs if we provide certainty.

ROMNEY - Texas is a great state. Right-to-work. Lotta oil. We're an energy-rich nation living like an energy-poor nation. We've gone from a pay-phone world to a smartphone world, but Obama wants to keep putting quarters in the pay-phone. I'll rattle off seven things I'll do, and Perry will nod in agreement. "How much credit does Perry deserve?" Well, if you have four aces, that doesn't make you a good poker player.

- Mitt made a mistake there.

PERRY - Mitt, you were doing good til you got to talkin' poker.

PAUL - Our taxes, spending and debt has gone up under Perry. I don't want to offend him; he might raise my taxes. 'How do you pay for a tax cut' is the wrong question. It's your money.

PERRY - Hey, I cut taxes by $14 billion.

GINGRICH - Well, when I was Speaker there were more jobs created at that time than when Huntsman, Romney and Perry were governors for their states. i don't take credit for it; it was investors and businessmen, etc. (Applause.)

"Can you be pro-business and pro-worker at the same time?"

CAIN - Yes, I was a worker before I was an executive. My mom was a maid, my dad was a janitor. We need leadership.

HUNTSMAN - This country needs more workers. We need an environment that creates jobs. Utah was #1 in job-creation, the best-managed state in America. Businesses flocked there, the Superfriends set up the Hall of Justice there; it's a great state!

Commercial break.

"What is your position on the Federal Reserve? Should we audit?"

SANTORUM - Yes, audit it. There should be a sound-money federal reserve. We need a pro-growth plan. Let's make zero taxes on American manufacturing.

CAIN - Yes, audit it. Its focus needs to be narrowed. Don't end it, fix it. The Canadian dollar is now worth more than the US dollar becuz of the Fed.

BACHMANN - I wouldn't reappoint Ben Bernake. Congress has given almost unlimited power to the Fed over the economy. The Fed "has a lot to answer for." 'Do you agree with Perry that Bernake is close to treason'? I'll let Perry answer that.

PERRY - Almost treasonous. I'm not a fan.

ROMNEY - The Fed has a responsibility to protect the value of our currency. But if we get rid of the Fed, who will oversee our currency? Congress? I'm not a fan of that.

"Out of every dollar that I earn, how much do you think I deserve to keep?"

HUNTSMAN - I'd flatten the tax rate. You want a competitive tax code. We need to cut the deductions. 8,14,24%. Thse would be my personal income rates. Lower corporate rates from 35 to 25. "Clean out the cobwebs." Debt is a cancer that will eat away at this country until you find a leader in 2012.

GINGRICH - Hey, GE paid no taxes. (Applause!) Obama talked about taking care of loopholes. Doesn't he realize everything GE is doing is a loophole? 'Isn't getting rid of a loophole a tax hike?' Yes, technically, but I'm cheerfully opposed to raising taxes.

"Would any of you be willing to support the Fair tax?"

ROMNEY - The idea of a national sales tax would make us more competitive globally, it'd level the playing field. But the way it's structured it'd raise the burden on the middle class. My plan is to reduce taxes on middle class. No tax on interest or dividends.

"Under what circumstances should a president sign an executive order?"

PAUL - The executive order has been grossly abused by all the administrations for a number of years. (Applause.) It should never be used to legislate. It should be taken under control.

"Hey, Gov. Perry, you signed an executive order to make 11-12-yr-old girls get vaccinated to prevent cervical cancer. Mistake?"

PERRY - Yep. I should've gone through the legislature. I will use an executive order to get rid of Obamacare on Day One.

BACHMANN - To have innocent girls forced to be injected by the government is just wrong. Repeal Obamacare!

PERRY - It wasn't a mandate; there was an opt-out. At the end of the day, I will err on the side of life.

BACHMANN - We cannot forget in the midst of this executive order, a drug company made millions due to this mandate. The governor's former chief-of-staff was the chief lobbyist for this drug company.

PERRY - It was Merck, and it was $5000. Are you saying I can be bought for $5000, I'm offended.

BACHMANN - I'm offended for all the little girls that didn't have a choice.

SANTORUM - Your policy was wrong. "This is Big Government run amok!"

PERRY - I think we made decisions... we put in efforts to cure cancer... we protect life... what we were all about was saving lives.

- Bachmann & Santorum did a great tag-team on Perry. He's woozy.

CAIN - Pass "loser pays" laws to get rid of frivolous lawsuits. (One guy applauds.) When I ran Godafther's Pizza we came up with a health-care plan for our employees.

ROMNEY - Generally people don't care what health-care costs once they've paid their deductible. On Day 1, I'll have the A.G. grant a waiver to all 50 states from Obamacare.

PERRY - Hey, Obama modeled Obamacare on Romneycare. It'll cost billions of dollars and is wrong for the country.

ROMNEY - Let me rattle off the ways my plan and Obamacare are different.

PAUL - Freedom's all about taking risks.

- Here Wolf Blitzer gives a hypothetical of a healthy uninsured 30-yr-old goes into a coma. 'Should the got just let him die?' Someone in the audience yells "Yeah!" Obama just lit up a stogey and put his feet on the desk.

BACHMANN - Waivers and executive orders won't cut it for Obamacare. No state has the right to force its citizens to buy a product. Remove Obamacare by its root and branch. 2012 is IT! This is the election to decide if we have socialized medicine or not. The meteor is headed toward Earth!

Commercial break. Whoa, Bachmann just ran off-stage.

"What would you do to remove the illegal immigrants from our country?"

SANTORUM - I'm the son of an Italian immigrant. We have a problem of an insecure border. "Unlike Governor Perry" I believe in a strong border. I'm against amnesty, but we need to support legal immigration.

PERRY - There's no one on this stage that's had to deal with illegal immigration more than me, and the fed govt has been an abject failure on border security. The idea that you'd build a wall is just not reality. You have to have boots on the ground. 4500 patrolmen, 1500 troops. The Fed govt has to step up and do their Constitutional duty.

"What are candidates doing to attract Latino voters?"

SANTORUM - Maybe Gov. Perry was trying to attract Latino voters by allowing illegals in-state tuition. (Racist much?) It was a gift to my father to force him to learn English.

PERRY - (Starts to defend his in-state tuition bill and gets some boos.)

"Isn't that like the Dream Act?"

BACHMANN - Very similar. Giving breaks to people who break our laws. What works is have legal immigration. Speak English, learn US history and our Constitution.

PERRY - I'm not for the Dream Act; that's amnesty. What we did was a states-rights issue. We were clearly sending a message that regardless of the sound of your last name, we believe in you. We're going to allow you to contribute and not be a drag.

HUNTSMAN - For Rick to say you can't secure the border is pretty much a treasonous comment. (Audience is stunned.) We allowed a drivers privilege card, a pragmatic local solution. Go, Tenth Amendment!

ROMNEY - Problem with both. They came here for opportunity. Regarding illegal immigration "of course" we build a fence. Giving them in-state tuition breaks or drivers license only encourages more illegal immigration.

PERRY - We had a decision to make. Do we give them incentive to contribute to society, or put them on the government dole? States-right issue. They're pursuing citizenship.

HUNTSMAN - We can spend all night talking about where Mitt's been on the issues. (Awkward.) Fix Homeland Security. When will we have an honest conversation? Legal immigration is broken.

"The US has an abundance of coal, natural gas and uranium. What will you do in first 100 days to ensure Americans that energy independence will finally become a reality?"

CAIN - Remove some of those fed govt barriers. Start with an EPA gone wild. Start a regulatory reduction commission.

"Do you plan to decrease defense spending to reduce deficit?"

GINGRICH - We should be reminded what's at stake if a foreign terrorist gets a nuclear weapon in this country. What do you do in Mexico, in Middle East, about our national base?

PAUL - Difference between military spending and defense spending. We have 900 bases all over the world. There's nothing in the Constitution for nation-building.

SANTORUM - Your website basically blamed us for 9/11. Con. Paul, that is irresponsible. Someone running for president should not be parroting what Osama said on 9/11. We were attacked because we stand for American exceptionalism.

PAUL - As long as this country follows that, we're in trouble. The idea that we were attacked because we are free is just not true. (Applause and then boos.)

"As the next president of the US, what will you do to secure safety for women and children of Afghanistan from the radicals?"

HUNTSMAN - We've been there for ten years. The time has come for us to get out of Afghanistan. We don't need 100,000 troops there when this country's core is crumbling. We're not shining like we used to shine. When we start to shine again, it'll help the women of Afghanistan. (Huh?) Afghan people need to take responsibility for their security.

PERRY - I agree with Huntsman in getting them home, but we need to have a presense there. That country's military needs to take care of their people.

Commercial break.

"What would you add to the White House?"

SANTORUM - We'd add a bedroom. We have seven kids.

GINGRICH - I'd kick out the WH czars to make more space. We'd have more music.

PAUL - I'd bring a bushel-basket of common sense, a course in Austrian economics.

PERRY - I'd bring the most beautiful, thoughtful First Lady this country had ever seen.

ROMNEY - I'd bring back Churchill's bust.

BACHMANN - I'd bring a copy of the Constitution and Declaration of the Independence and red meat for voters!

CAIN - I'd bring a sense of humor. America's too uptight.

HUNTSMAN - I'd bring my Harley.

Aaaaaand we're done.

If this was the first time I'd ever seen any of these candidates, I would rank them this way.

1. NEWT GINGRICH - Got a ton of applause, but also had genial tone, articulate answers, seemed most willing to give credit to other candidates.

2. MITT ROMNEY - Seemed a little too willing to be aggressive toward Rick Perry, but otherwise did great in hitting the questions that came.

3. HERMAN CAIN - Relaxed, engaged, maybe suffered from clearly no one else being worried about him. I'm not crazy about a "loser pays" law. That seems like it'd make big corporations that much more confident in lawsuits.

4. RON PAUL - The man knows where he stands on every issue. But had some answers the audience would rather boo than hear.

5. RICK PERRY - He was clearly the target and his opponents landed some serious punches. I think we're going to hear more about Merck over the next few days.

6. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Her answer to almost every question was "Repeal Obamacare!" Strongest moment may have been when attacking Perry over vaccinations.

7. RICK SANTORUM - He had his moments, but he had a couple clunker answers too, especailly his response to attracting Latino voters by instantly making an illegal-immigration joke.

8. JON HUNTSMAN - Came off as a jerk. Negative against his opponents and had a couple weird scoot-arounds from answering the question.

Will this affect polls? Eh maybe. It's still a two-person race between Romney and Perry. I changed my mind about something. Sarah Palin could still get in. It'd then be a three-person race.

MSNBC's GOP Reagan Library Debate

2011-09-07T21:12:00.000-07:00

Left to right the line-up is Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Romney, Perry, Paul, Cain, Huntsman, the most popular in the middle with those doing worse in the polls on the edges.

6:01 - First question to PERRY. (My goodness, he looks like Josh Brolin.) Brian Williams points out Texas is highest in poverty. Perry points out Texas created 1 million jobs when the U.S. lost 2.5 million. Williams points out the jobs were lower-waged. Perry says 95% of them were "above minimum wage." We're going to lower taxes and regulation.

6:04 - Next to ROMNEY. Points out the good he did in Massachusetts, got unemployment to 4.7%. Touts "private sector" experience. Sings Bain Capital's praises. BW asks if being a career politician is a disqualifier; Mitt squirms out of it.

6:07 - Counter to PERRY. Perry slams Mass. job creation rate; says Texas created more jobs in three months than Mass. did in four years. Mitt has great counter on how Texas has much better setup and said if Perry tries to take credit for Texas having oil, it's like Gore saying he invented the internet.

6:09 - Next is SANTORUM. My interest plummets.

6:10 - Next is CAIN. "Eliminate current tax code." Calls it his 9-9-9 tax plan. "If 10% is good enough for God, 9% ought to be good enough for government."

6:12 - China question for HUNTSMAN, "What doesn't Romney get?" No trade wars during a recession. Drops Reagan's name twice.

6:13 - BACHMANN, what regulations would you get rid of? "ObamaCare." One thing I know is kids needs jobs.

6:14 - PAUL, you're an absolutist. "I don't believe in any of these federal regulations." BW counters with asking if we get rid of regulations, do we just let drug companies say "This is safe; trust us."?

6:15 - GINGRICH, you wrote the foreword for Rick Perry's book. "Sure." Now let me walk though how I worked with Reagan.

6:19 - ROMNEY, defend the Mass. health-care plan. On Day One, I'd grant waivers to ObamaCare. It's a bad law. Some of it worked; some of it didn't.

6:21 - PERRY, about 25% of Texans don't have health-care, it's 50th in the nation in health-care. "Medicaid needs to go back to the States." But why are so many Texans uninsured? Perry's punt: "Federal govt won't give us flexibility."

6:24 - HUNTSMAN, we should emphasize personal responsibility. Let the marketplace create options. Utah's #1!

6:26 - BACHMANN. "ObamaCare took over 1/6 of economy." ObamaCare and job are the issue of 2012. "It must be gone now."

6:27 - GINGRICH attacks Politico's John Harris for trying to get candidates to attack each other. (Attacking Chris Wallace last time worked for him.) Gets loudest applause yet by saying we're a team and we're going to defeat Obama.

6:28 - CAIN, I was against HillaryCare, I'm against ObamaCare, and now I'm running against RomneyCare. None of them work.

6:29 - SANTORUM, you're Catholic. Catholics are supposed to care for the poor. What would do about poor people? "No one did more than Rick Santorum for poor people."

6:30 - PERRY, black people are poorer than white people. "Let me answer a different question. Let's create an economy where people know they can take care of their family. And that's true for (any race)."

6:33 - ROMNEY, what say you about Bachmann's pledge to get gas to $2 a gallon. "We are an energy-rich nation living like an energy-poor nation." Obama keeps talking about green jobs; where are they?

6:34 - BACHMANN, if the fed govt would pull back on energy restrictions, we'd see 1.2 million jobs created.

6:35 - HUNTSMAN - I'm not sure that dictating (gas) prices will get you anywhere. Get away from the teleprompter and speak from your heart and soul. We need a president that will provide a "little bit o' leadership."

6:36 - PAUL, yes I'd get rid of minimum wage, but I'm a physician; why did I not get asked about health care? Did I mention Perry praised HillaryCare? Isn't Medicare a mandate? Everything's a mandate!

6:38 - PERRY, hey Ron you wrote a letter telling Reagan you're leaving the party.

6:39 - PAUL, I supported Reagan but in the 1980's we had huge deficits.

First break. Then a video tribute to Reagans Ronald & Nancy. And Nancy Reagan is in attendance and gets applause.

6:47 - PERRY (hm, he seems to be getting more questions...), was Social Security wrong from the beginning? People who are on SS today or in line don't need to worry about not getting benefits, but it is a Ponzi scheme. SS is a "monstrous lie." JH counters with quotes from Rove & Cheney, but Perry doubles down and calls SS a lie.

6:50 - ROMNEY, how do you have a conversation about SS w/o scaring seniors? "Funding is not the issue." Our nominee has to someone committed to saving SS not abolishing it. I'll make sure we make the program financially secure. SS works for millions of Americans.

6:51 - PERRY, you can have reasons or results. You can't keep the status quo in place and call SS anything other than a Ponzi scheme.

6:52 - CAIN (who wasn't asked), do you want to hear more rhetoric or a solution? I believe in a Chilean model.

6:53 - PAUL, talk about Perry's record. Governor made an executive order forcing vaccinations; legislature overwhelmingly repealed.

6:54 - BACHMANN, I'm against forcing inocculations on children. I cut my teeth on education reform.

6:55 - PERRY, "I feel like a pinata." It wasn't an executive order; we were trying to cure cancer. We allowed for an opt-out.

6:56 - SANTORUM - We created Dept of Homeland Security becuz agencies had no info sharing. Perry says "States rights." What about "Parents rights"? An opt-out? What about an opt-in?

6:57 - ROMNEY - I'm sure Perry would've done it differently if he had to do it again. We love this country. We believe this president has to go. He's a nice guy, but he doesn't have a clue how to get this country working again. (Applause from audience.)

6:58 - GINGRICH - Back to Homeland Security. There are people who will try to sneak in WMD's.

6:59 - PAUL, if you abolished the TSA, what would exist in its place? Airlines. The TSA bureaucracy is monstrous. Private institutions do a better job of protecting. BW: what about federal aid for natural disasters? "FEMA's broke." Hey, people pay insurance. We're spending $20 billion for air conditioning in Afghanistan. Bring the troops home.

7:00 - CAIN, don't eliminate FEMA; let's fix FEMA, fix Homeland Security. There is a responsbile way for govt to run things.

7:01 - HUNTSMAN, we need Homeland Security to not feel like a fortress-protection mentality. We've got 14 million unemployed, this is a human tragedy. These other issues are important but let's not lose sight of what's important.

7:05 - PERRY - Texas is one of the worst for h.s. graduates and you cut education funding. "The reductions we made were thoughtful reductions." We're making progress. When you share a border with Mexico, we have a unique situation in our state. (I think he wanted to blame Mexicans for bringing down test scores?) Points our eBay and Facebook moved their HQ to Texas. (Jose Diaz comes in to ask border question.) "You can secure the border but it requires commitment from fed govt."

7:08 - ROMNEY - Border? We've got to have a fence, or a techno way of seeing who's crossing. Employers who hire people illegally is a magnet to illegal aliens. We can't give amnesty.

7:10 - GINGRICH - I'm with Reagan. Control the border; establish legal guest-worker program. Make English official language of govt. (Applause from audience!)

7:12 - SANTORUM, I agree mostly w/ Newt. I'm son of Italian immigrant. JD, what do you do with 11 mil already here illegally? "To have that discussion right now, no more. Secure the border first. We'll have discussion afterwards."

7:13 - BACHMANN, you support a fence. Let's say the border's secure. What do you do with the 11 mil already here? "We can't yield sovereignty to another nation (Mexico). No more tax subsidies to illegals." What do you do with the 11 mil? "It depends. Immigration worked beautifully until the 1960's."

7:15 - CAIN, we can solve it with boots on the ground. (Boots on the groun, boots on the groun, lookin like a fool with yo boots on the groun!) (Sorry.)

7:16 - HUNTSMAN, I agree with most of what's been said. Immigration is a human issue. I see this issue thru my adopted daughters' eyes. Let's not lose sight of the fact our legal immigration system is broken.

7:17 - PAUL, Texas shouldn't be forced to provide free health-care and education to illegal immigrants. Our drug laws are causing a lot of this. Sure, a barbed-wire fence with machine guns! I don't believe that's what the American people want.

Final break....

7:23 - ROMNEY, are you a member of the Tea Party? "I don't believe we carry cards." If the Tea Party is for smaller govt, I'm for the Tea Party.

7:24 - PERRY, I would've raised my hand in walking away from the 10-to-1 deal. Plugs balanced-budget amendment.

7:25 - BACHMANN, Reagan would've raised his hand too.

7:26 - HUNTSMAN, I'd love to get everyone to take a pledge to stop taking pledges. I pledge allegiance to my wife and country and that's it. BW: Do you think we're safer today post-9/11. "We have 100,000 in Afghanistan." We've got to bring those troops home, nation-build here. Let's get our core fixed.

7:28 - ROMNEY - People are worried about paying their bills. We have a crisis in confidence. We need a leader who has the experience to get us back on track.

7:29 - PERRY, was GWB too quick to intervene in Iraq? One thing I want to praise Obama on is killing Bin Laden, and proving that Keynesian economic philosophy doesn't work.

7:30 - BACHMANN, I'm worried the SuperCommittee will cut resources to military, and hey, look at the oil revenues in Libya.

7:33 - SANTORUM, I'm hearing a very isolationist view on pulling troops out. Reagan was committed to America to being a force for good around the world. We didn't have exit-strategy deadlines for leaving.

7:34 - HUNTSMAN, in order for the Repub party to win, we can't run from science, we can't run from mainstream Repub philosophy. We need someone who can win, but when we make comments that don't reflect reality, we turn people off.

7:36 - PERRY, the science is not settled on climate change. It's nonsense. Galileo got outvoted for a spell. To put America's economic future in jeopardy, to cut back in areas that'd have monstrous impact, not good economics, nor good science.

7:38 - BACHMANN, do you want to drill in the Everglades? "We need to do it responsibly." EPA has been devastating.

7:40 - GINGRICH, I'd fire Ben Bernake tomorrow. Audit the Fed. Let's not raise taxes, let's raise revenue. Put people back to work.

7:41 - ROMNEY, I don't want to raise taxes but everyone ought to feel like they're part of this effort, but right now, the question is "how about middle income Americans?" They're the most hurt by this economy. BW: Would Ben Bernake have a job in your administration? "I'd look for someone new."

7:43 - PERRY, you've executed 234 in Texas, how do you sleep at night? "I've never worried we've excuted someone innocent." (applause from audience) "Americans understand justice. It's a state-by-state issue."

7:46 - CAIN, GE had $14.2 billion in profits, paid no taxes. "This is why I proposed my 9-9-9 plan." This recession is the worst since the Great Depression.

7:47 - PAUL, would you get rid of school lunch? "If local govt does it, that's fine." We're against mandates.

And that's a wrap.

And then to analyze, MSNBC has Rachel Maddow, Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz, Lawrence O'Donnell, Al Shartpon, Eugene Robinson.... What?

Okay, let's look at this.

Rick Perry was the front-runner, and that's how it played. He got the most questions and he took the most hits. What they'll be writing about tomorrow is how he promounced "props" as "propes", that Scoial Security is a lie and a Ponzi scheme, that science on climate change is not settled, and that Texas was last in the insured. But how did the whole field do?

Amount of questions asked, by my count:

Perry - 13
Romney - 9
Bachmann - 8
Paul - 7
Huntsman - 7
Cain - 6
Gingrich - 5
Santorum - 5

Ranking in descending order based on how they did tonight and what effect that might have on polls in the first few states.

8. RICK SANTORUM - Punted on illegal immigration and tried to stand out by being more pro-foreign-war than the other candidates. Has no chance.

7. HERMAN CAIN - His 9-9-9 plan would raise taxes on poor people. Wanted to hear more about what he liked about how Chile solved their Social Security problem, but that's the problem with eight people on stage. At this point, has no chance.

6. NEWT GINGRICH - His attack of John Harris's question felt like Arnold saying "Whatchoo talkin bout, Willis!" Funny the first time, but... Gingrich just doesn't have the temperment to run and win a national campaign. Has no chance.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - It was genius timing on Rick Perry's part to announce his candidacy right after she won the Ames straw poll. She's received zero traction since. Tonight she threw out many stats, half of which I'm inclined to not believe. We'll see what PolitiFact says. But she needed to re-assert herself as at least the third-place candidate, and she didn't do that.

4. RON PAUL - Landed a few punches on Perry. Also seemed too simplistic in his answers sometimes of just getting the government out of everything. How would that really work, really? But I never would have thought in 2008 he'd get more votes in 2012 than he did then. But I do think he'll get more votes this time around. Not much more, but more.

3. JON HUNTSMAN - Much better this time around. Is it enough to save his campaign? No. But it makes his 2016 candidacy more credible. I like his no-pledge pledge. But this is now a two-person race and he's not one of those two persons.

2. RICK PERRY - MSNBC seemed determined to bring him down a peg. He was treated like the front-runner and people weren't afraid to go after him, but he was ready with counter-arguments for each candidate. Trouble is, Mitt had counters for his counter-arguments. I don't think Perry hurt himself much in the deep-red states, particularly in the south, but I think to the north and west, he looks a little less electable than he did last month. I still think he'll win Iowa and South Carolina.

1. MITT ROMNEY - For the most part he was masterful. Playful when Perry expected a hard hit, took each opportunity served up for him to sound like the more diplomatic one. Got in a brilliant Al Gore zinger on Perry early. Looked least comfortable when asked about the Tea Party. Looked most comfortable attacking Obama, but with velvet gloves. Perry called Obama a liar; Romney just said he's a nice guy but doesn't have a clue, a more palatable way to attack. I still think he'll win New Hampshire and Nevada, and then when Perry wins South Carolina, the establishment will throw its support behind Romney to stop George W. Bush II from getting the nomination.

I also think it's too late for anyone else to jump in. It's Romney v. Perry. If Sarah Palin announced she was in, she'd finish off Bachmann, weaken Perry, and Romney would actually have an easier time.

Jon Huntsman's plan to raise taxes on the middle-class

2011-08-31T13:37:00.000-07:00

Jon Huntsman needs something to jump-start his campaign. Being the moderate isn't working; attacking his opponents is only supplying footage to future Democratic commercials. Now he's come forth with a bold new tax plan.

He's calling it revenue neutral. He and other conservatives have pointed out they want more Americans to have "skin in the game." It gets rid of the mortgage interest deduction and the child tax credit. I just don't see home-owning parents looking at Huntsman and saying, "Yes, cut corporate taxes and raise mine."

Rick Perry leads in South Carolina

2011-08-26T15:13:00.000-07:00

Didn't take long to find that Magellan did poll South Carolina too, and Texas governor Rick Perry has a commanding lead.

PERRY 31%
ROMNEY 20%
BACHMANN 14%
CAIN 9%
GINGRICH 5%
PAUL 4%
SANTORUM 2%
HUNTSMAN 2%
OTHER/UNDECIDED - 13%

Delving a little deeper, Perry leads Romney 36-16 among those who identify themselves as "Social Conservatives". He has a bigger lead with males (35-16) than females (27-24).

Then there's the "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate?" question.

Favorable/Unfavorable
Perry - 61% / 17%
Bachmann - 58% / 27%
Romney - 55% / 31%
Cain - 49% / 17%
Gingrich - 35% / 53%
Paul - 28% / 48%
Santorum - 26% / 32%
Huntsman - 9% / 44%

Suddenly Iowa seems a lot more important. If Romney doesn't plan to compete there, he has to be secretly hoping that Michelle Bachmann can win it. But if Perry wins Iowa, I still expect Romney to win New Hampshire, then Perry wins South Carolina, that's serious momentum. That's eaxctly the route Bush took to beat McCain in 2000. Romney has to be glad Nevada's between New Hampshire and South Carolina this year. Haven't seen anything new, but he did great in Nevada in 2008.

Perry #1 in Iowa, Romney #1 in New Hampshire

2011-08-26T14:24:00.000-07:00

Looking forward to see a South Carolina poll. After all, when it come to elections we only have three states in this fine country of ours.

The latest polls from Magellan Strategies show that Mitt Romney still has a convincing lead in New Hampshire, and newbie Rick Perry has a narrow lead on Michelle Bachmann in Iowa.

New Hampshire, June 14-15:

Mitt Romney - 42%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Ron Paul - 10%
Sarah Palin - 7%
Rudy Giuliani - 6%
Tim Pawlenty - 5%
Herman Cain - 4%
Newt Gingrich - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 3%
Rick Santorum - 2%

New Hampshire, August 15-16:

Mitt Romney - 36% (-6)
Rick Perry - 18% (+18)
Ron Paul - 14% (+4)
Michele Bachmann - 10% (+0)
Herman Cain - 3% (-1)
Jon Huntsman - 3%
Newt Gingrich - 2% (-1)
Rick Santorum - 1% (-1)

Iowa, July 10-11:

Michele Bachmann - 29%
Mitt Romney - 16%
Tim Pawlenty - 8%
Herman Cain - 8%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Ron Paul - 5%
Rick Santorum - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 0%

Iowa, August 22-23:

Rick Perry - 24% (+24)
Michele Bachmann - 22% (-7)
Mitt Romney - 19% (+3)
Ron Paul - 9% (+4)
Herman Cain - 6% (-2)
Newt Gingrich - 4% (-1)
Rick Santorum - 4% (+1)
Jon Huntsman - 1% (+1)

Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all need a miracle at the next debate to justify staying in the race. And Michelle Bachmann has no room to falter. But I expect all the other candidates to come out swinging at Romney and Perry.

It's interesting to see that Romney, who's long said he's not competing in Iowa, is a close third. If he decided to put in a little effort and somehow won Iowa, the race would be over.

Huntsman's the new McCain

2011-08-22T05:50:00.000-07:00

I'm not referring to McCain 2008. I mean McCain 2000. The moderate in the GOP primary who gets press love whenever he critiques his own party. Jon Huntsman did himself no favors in the last debate, his campaign's all but written off, but then he spent the week blasting away at the other candidates, taking jabs at Romney for flip-flopping on the flat-tax and Perry for floating a secession trial balloon.

So why isn't Ron Paul getting more pub?

GOP Iowa Debate

2011-08-12T00:13:00.000-07:00

Some thoughts I wrote during the debate:

- Bachmann and Pawlenty really going at each other at Chris Wallace's encouragement.

- Chris Wallace is not going to ask a single softball question.

- All candidates raise their hands when Baier asks if they'd walk away from a 10-to-1 spending to tax hikes deal.

- Oh, Wallace did ask a softball, to Pawlenty, on "ObamneyCare." Oh, and another one to Bachmann on health-care mandates. Never mind.

- Loudest boos of the night for Ron Paul when he rallies against war propaganda.

- Never mind, loudest boos for Byron York's question to Bachmann, "As president, would you be submissive to your husband?"

- These are pretty good questions.

Below were paraphrased pieces of answers from each candidate.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - We shouldn't have increased the debt ceiling. I'll turn the economy around in 90 days. T-Paw, you supported cap-and-trade as governor, sounds like Obama to me. I support freedom of lightbulb choice. I fought against raising cigarette tax but voted for it because it was tied to abortion bill. I didn't cut deals with special interests like T-Paw. There's room in the race for Perry and Palin. Terrorists have no Miranda rights. Guantanamo Bay is a tool we need to have to prosecute the new type of war and warfare. Iran is one of the four terror centers of the world. Submission means respect; that's how we operate our marriage. I support Federal Marriage Amendment; I will be against activist judges. Again, I wouldn't raise the debt ceiling. The S&P's downgrade proved I was right in saying "Don't raise the debt ceiling." In conclusion, I want to send a message to DC they can't miss.

MITT ROMNEY - Our corporate taxes need to be competitive with other nations. Our trade policy needs to benefit us, not just our trade partners. I've been supporting Cut Cap & Balance, plus Balanced Budget Amendment. Mass. unemployment under fed level of unemployment 3 out of 4 years I was in office. We want to make sure America is a home to the best and brightest in the world. We are a nation of immigrants; we love legal immigration. We have to secure our border and crack down on employers of illegals. I didn't believe in raising taxes. As governor I cut taxes (but raised fees). We cut spending in Mass. Every year we balanced the budget. ObamneyCare? I believe in the 10th Amendment. We had a state health-care solution. Obama made a bad national plan out of it. We've helped the people of Afghanistan gian freedom from Taliban, but they need to preserve their own sovereignty. I believe the issue of marriage should be addressed at the federal level. Why not at state level? Because people move. Marriage is a status. I believe in Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as between man and woman. I wouldn't extend unemployment benefits; I'd come up with a new plan. In conclusion, this prez doesn't understand how this economy works. We need someone who believe in free enterprise and will make this country the hope of the Earth.

RON PAUL - The country's bankrupt and no one wants to admit it. We need lower taxes and less regulation. We'll have a divided Congress for a while so you have to have military cuts on the table to get them to go along with cutting other programs. I have good record on immigration. Corporatism does well whether under Obama or Republicans. We have to give people more control of their health care. I'm pleased Perry's coming cuz he represents the status quo, and I'm different than him. Why are we scared of Iran who "might" get a nuclear weapon someday? Remember when we had the Cold War and the Soviets had 30,000 weapons? Bring out troops home! These pretend free-traders keep raising trade sanctions. Our problem is we don't mind our own business. Bachmann turns the rule of law on its head regarding terrorists. You're hearing the war propaganda. It's time we quit this; we're spending trillions of dollars on these wars. The federal government shouldn't have marriage police. Why do we have to have a license to get married? You can phase out the Fed. I'm delighted mainstreamers are catching up with auditing the Fed. We owe the Fed $1.6 trillion. Let's just declare that gone. In conclusion, liberty comes from our Creator. I am down on these wars that costs trillions, we need a gold standard, lower the regulations, then we can achieve real peace and prosperity.

HERMAN CAIN - Make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Change capital gains tax to 0%. Make top tax rate down to 25%. I know more now than I did then when I spoke about banning mosques. I will never say I apologize for saying sharia law does not belong in US courts. I've learned more about Afghanistan lately. "America's got to learn to take a joke." America can be a nation of high fences and wide-open doors. Perry's just one more politician. Our energy strategy is directly related to national security. The head of Iran said he wants to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth; I take that seriously. People say they're not clear how Romney's Mormonism relates to the South's Christian/Protestant views. My focus is not on other people's religions. I wouldn't have raised debt ceilings. I'm about growth. Get rid of No Child Left Behind. In conclusion, I represent growth. A poet once said life can seem impossible but it isn't easy when there's so much on the line.

JON HUNTSMAN - As governor I made Utah #1 in job creation. We cut taxes historically; we created the most business-friendly environment in the country. I'm proud of my service to this country. I said the stimulus needed more tax cuts. I am a conservative problem solver; the thing we need to do most on illegal immigration is secure the border. 1800 miles, we've got a third of it done. Once that is done, we can move on. I hope Perry broadens this discussion about job creation. Cyberattacks are an act of war. We need counter-measures; we need a strategic dialogue with China. I think it would be great to have a POTUS who knows something about China. I believe in traditional marriage first and foremost, but I also believe in civil unions. I am very proud of Huntsman Corp., it's a global business. No Child Left Behind hasn't worked, we should get rid of it, education should go to local levels. We need school choice and vouchers. I'm the only one here who stood up for the Boehner deal; we are 25% of the world's GDP. The thought that they would let the nation default is wrong.

NEWT GINGRICH - I was there when Reagan got tax cuts through. As Speaker in the 1990's we got unemployment to 4.2%. Chris, put aside the "gotcha" questions. My messy campaign is like Reagan's or McCain's. Congress should repeal Sarbanes-Oxley and ObamaCare and should implement Lean Six Sigma across Congress. Too much press-corps attention to campaign minutae, not enough to how we differ from Obama. Obama failed to get any illegal immigrations reform through. Move Homeland Security bureaucrats from DC to AZ, NM, TX. The Super-Committee deal is a dumb idea. Hey, Rudy could run, Palin could run, Perry could run. On Libya, you've asked me another "gotcha" question. I think we need to rethink everything in foreign policy. There is nothing illegitimate to making sure that those who work for the government are loyal to this country. Having some kind of central bank is important for monetary policy, but the Fed should be totally audited. We should know who they did and didn't bail out.

TIM PAWLENTY - Go to my website, read my plan for 5% growth a year for ten years. Where's Obama's plan on reform? I never questioned Bachmann's headaches; Obama's giving the country headaches with his policies. But Bachmann's results in Congress are non-existent. My results as governor are clear. Bachmann has a record of misstatements and untrue statements. I balanced the budget; I did raise cigarette fees (not taxes!) Obama should cancel his Cape Cod vacation. Bachmann keeps referring to "leading efforts." Leading and failing is not the objective. Thanks for letting me answer an "ObamneyCare" question. My record as governor is better than Mitt's. Afghanistan was still worth it, but I'd call for a slower draw-down. Syria is killing thousands of their own people, another example of naive foreign policy. Obama repeatedly sticks his thumb in Israel's eye. I'm the pro-life candidate here. In conclusion, if we don't protect freedom, we may lose it forever.

RICK SANTORUM - America has limitless potential. Manufacturing has plummeted here; we need to bring it back. Take the corporate rate and cut it to 0% for manufacturers, our jobs will come back. Hey, some of us haven't had a chance to speak much here! I won't accept tax hikes under any circumstance. You need people good at leadership, not showmanship. I was the first author of Medical Savings Account. Our country is based on (my) moral laws. I respect the 10th Amendment, but some things (polygamy, sterilization) shouldn't not be allowed by states. Iran is not Iceland; they've been at war with us since 1979. Ron Paul is wrong! You're giving these other guys more time than me! Anyone that suggests that Iran is not a threat is not serious; Ron Paul and Obama are alike on this. Sounds like Paul would be okay with some states legallizing polygamy and gay marriage. I am against abortion under any circumstance. I agree we ought to audit the Fed. To suggest we "never" need to raise the debt ceiling is showmanship not leadership again. In conclusion, I've travelled everywhere and nat'l media may not pay attention to us, but I have proven leadership.

As they asked each question, I graded them on how hardball or softball the questions were, and looking back, they rank as follows: Romney, Huntsman, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Cain, Paul, Bachmann, Santorum. Surprised Santorum had the easiest questions, but I think two or three of them he had to beg for.

I tried keeping track of answer time and rebuttal time, and by my unscientific observance, the airtime from most to least ranked as follows: Bachmann, Paul, Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain, Huntsman, with the last four being pretty close, and a gap between T-Paw and Newt.

Overall, this was a really good, entertaining debate. Hard, fair questions by Fox. The one thing they all agreed on? No tax increases under any circumstances.

So how do I think they did? Maybe I'll feel different after I sleep on it, but...

9. HERMAN CAIN - Hey, someone had to come in last. His foreign policy arguments were weak, and there's nothing he offers that isn't covered by other candidates.

8. RICK SANTORUM - He was more assertive and forceful this time around, but also came off as a little desperate and a little too angry. He lost the exchange with Ron Paul where by the end, I felt like Santorum wanted to go to war with Iran now. His "showmanship not leadership" was a good line, and that might stick against Bachmann, but in weeks, we'll forget who coined it.

7. JON HUNTSMAN - Nerves were his weakness tonight. He was able to distinguish himself from the pack when it came to issues like the debt ceiling, civil unions, relations with China, but he wasn't very convincing about it.

6. NEWT GINGRICH - He continues to make the case that he may have some good ideas, but his bad ideas and his demeanor mean he wouldn't be a good president. He should be an advisor or Cabinet member, or be back in Congress, but not President. Sarbanes-Oxley does need serious reform if not outright removal, and Lean Six Sigma would be good for Congress to be educated in, but he spent more time getting cranky with Chris Wallace over what questions he was asking, and he doubled-down on loyalty oaths.

5. TIM PAWLENTY - He was more combative today, but the absolute softball on ObamneyCare wasn't going to score any points, because everyone recognized it as a do-over. I liked that he went right at Bachmann, but she scored more points once the dust settled.

4. RON PAUL - His strengths were on attacking the Fed, and other candidates are joining him in this. He also successfully fought back agains the neocon attacks of Santorum on Iran. He had sections in there where he came off as befuddled.

3. MITT ROMNEY - No attacks by other candidates against him stuck. He was weakest shooting himself in the foot trying to squirm out of answers, like the unemployment benefits.

2. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She continues to render a Sarah Palin candidacy pointless. She coolly disemboweled Pawlenty over his record, though I thought he had some effective blows against her. She's been consistant on the views she espouses, even if some of them might not win her a general election. That Newsweek cover is already forgotten.

1. RICK PERRY - His name came up and everyone had nice things to say, and the stage is wide open for him to waltz in.

I think Bachmann could win the Ames straw poll. I think Perry could win it. I think Romney could win it. Anyone else could use the boost, but I think it's between those three.

And the good thing about the straw poll is it means we'll probably have a couple candidates drop out afterwards.

GOP Debate Moves the Numbers

2011-08-11T21:16:00.000-07:00

From InTrade.
Pre-Debate / Post-Debate

1. Mitt Romney - 32% / 30.1%
2. Rick Perry - 31% / 29.5%
3. Sarah Palin - 8.1% / 8.0%
4. Jon Huntsman - 7.7% / 8.9%
5. Tim Pawlenty - 6.5% / 6.0%
6. Michelle Bachmann - 5.8% / 6.2%
7. Ron Paul - 5.5% / 4.6%
8. Rudy Guiliani - 2.1% / 2.1%
9. Chris Christie - 1.3% / 1.3%
10. Newt Gingrich - 1.0% / 1.1%
-- Herman Cain - .7% / 1.0%
-- Rick Santorum - .3% / .4%

The Meaningless Iowa Straw Poll

2011-08-11T07:10:00.000-07:00

The Republican winners of the Ames Straw Poll:
1979 - George H.W. Bush
1987 - Pat Robertson
1995 - Bob Dole/Phil Gramm (tie)
1999 - George W. Bush
2007 - Mitt Romney

So 40% of the time, the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination, and 20% of the time, he became president.

The Super Committee

2011-08-10T20:45:00.000-07:00

So The Gang of 12 is on its way to formation. At least the Republicans have picked their three-and-three. The R senators are Jon Kyl (AZ), Rob Portman (OH), and Pat Toomey (PA), and the R congressmen are Jeb Hensarling (TX), Dave Camp (MI), and Fred Upton (MI). The D senators are John Kerry (MA), Max Baucus (MO), and Patty Murray (WA). The Democratic congressmen have yet to be named.

Ironic that the fight over limiting government has led to this new quorum of government to figure out how to solve it.

Perry passes Romney at InTrade

2011-07-31T21:41:00.000-07:00

As of July 31.

1. (3) Rick Perry - 31.6%
2. (1) Mitt Romney - 28%
3. (5) Jon Huntsman - 7.3%
4. (2) Michelle Bachmann - 7.2%
5. (6) Sarah Palin - 6.6%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 6.1%
7. (7) Ron Paul - 2.2%
8. (10) Rudy Guiliani - 2%
9. (9) Chris Christie - 1.6%
10. (8) Newt Gingrich - 0.8%

I've been amazed by the meteoric rise of Rick Perry the past couple months. Why, post-Dubya, would Republican establishment members be courting the next governor from Texas? I watched the Chris Matthews Show yesterday to watch him and his guests debate it, and they showed clips of Perry where he even sounds just like George W. Bush. I can't imagine him turning too many blue states red. But "they" have been looking for the anti-Romney for a long time, and now they believe they have their guy.

And Perry hasn't officially announced either.

The campaigns of Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Thad McCotter appear to be lost causes. I keep hearing that Newt Gingrich hasn't dropped out yet because he's still in debt and needs to raise some money just to pay for his failed bid.

I really doubt Rudy Guiliani and Chris Christie will get in, and yet they have their fans still hoping against hope.

Sarah Palin I am more inclined to think she won't get in, but she wants to keep America guessing right up until Iowa.

Regarding 'The Undefeated'

2011-07-25T20:41:00.000-07:00

There hasn't been and never will be a presidential candidate where I'd want to see a rah-rah "only the good stuff" documentary of their political career in a movie theater. The unsubtle Sarah Palin documentary The Undefeated dropped over 60% in its second weekend and now will be looking for Video-on-Demand release. Maybe I'll see it on DVD if she actually runs. I don't think she'll run.

Rick Perry continues to make bedroom eyes toward GOP donors, hinting, flirting, teasing that he might get in the race. I can actually see him jumping in. I don't think he'd beat Mitt Romney as easily as some think, but he'd make it a tighter race, as long-term very few believe Michelle Bachmann could actually win the nomination.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Hopeful

2011-07-06T07:16:00.000-07:00

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 34.9%
2. (6) Michelle Bachmann - 17.7%
3. (5) Rick Perry - 14.2%
4. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 9%
5. (3) Jon Huntsman - 6.7%
6. (4) Sarah Palin - 5.3%
7. (10)Ron Paul - 2.2%
8. (-) Newt Gingrich - 2%
9. (8) Chris Christie - 1.8%
10. (9) Rudy Guiliani - 1.7%

Rising: Romney, Bachmann, Perry
Falling: Pawlenty, Huntsman, Cain

We've had the first big debate, a couple more candidates have officially announced, and a couple more are still flirting with the idea. Of those officially in, Romney and Bachmann are making July a two-person race. Cain and Santorum aren't in the top ten. You'd never know from the media that Gary Johnson and Thad McCotter are also running for president.

Perry, Palin, Christie and Guiliani still are not in the race, and most of them likely won't ever be, but they still poll better than half the field. Huntsman's seen as too moderate by Republicans and too reasonable by Democrats to get the nomination. My guess is Pawlenty can't wait for the next debate to hit Romney double-hard with anything he can think of in order to erase the memory of him backing down in the last debate.

GOP Showdowns

2011-06-30T07:28:00.000-07:00

ROMNEY VS. HUNTSMAN - It's not just that they're both Mormon, and both and rich-and-famous fathers. It's that if you lined up all the Republican candidates from left to right on how they really felt deep inside about the different issues, Huntsman and Romney would be the first two on the left. Still right of center compared to the rest of the country, but it's Republican delegates they have to court first, and Romeny's willing to say whatever to convince them he's really farther down the row.

BACHMANN VS. PALIN - It's not just that they're both women, and both have interesting family dynamics. It's that both are considered Tea party queens. Both have proven to be gaffe-prone and have enthusiastic supporters willing to go into Wikipedia and change history because their candidate said soemthing was so. If Sarah gets in, how do they not cancel each other out? It's not just because they're women; they have a lot in common. It reminds me of how Biden & Dodd cancelled each other out in 2008.

PAWLENTY VS. PERRY - The early front-runner for the "Anyone But Mitt" crowd was T-Paw, but after he backed down in the debate, the new favorite is secession-flirter Rick Perry. The Texas governor can boast of the economic health of his state compared to the rest of the union, and his toothy grin has steel behind it. I say if Perry really gets in, Pawlenty's finished.

GINGRICH VS. GINGRICH - You did it to yourself, Newt. Don't waste any more money and drop out of the race now.

EVERYONE ELSE - Ron Paul will always have a loyal following, but he isn't going to win. Herman Cain would need a really impressive debate performance or two to give his campaign a jump-start. Rick Santorum should quit while he's behind. I feel like I'm forgetting someone... Rudy Guiliani? Even if he gets in, he won't take any states. He'd be there to block someone else. Gary Johnson? Over before it started.

Yeah, I think that's it. I can see Bachmann staying strong for a while, but if Palin and Perry get in, I see Perry taking the #2 spot behind Romney.

And if I haven't said it somewhere else before, I'll say it here. If Mitt Romney does get the nomination, his VP pick will be Marco Rubio.

GOP New Hampshire Debate

2011-06-13T21:50:00.000-07:00

I watched the debate, and then I watched pieces again, and I'd still like to read a transcript to see if there was some substance I missed. The platform did not allow for much. When there are seven candidates, and CNN's John King wants all of their answers in 30 second bits, well, how can you really go into policy with that? King might as well have said, "We are only seeking soundbites, catch-phrases, and plattitudes. Let's get started."

How'd they do?

7. RICK SANTORUM - Of all the candidates, he's the one who has to answer the question, "Why are you here again?" And he didn't.

6. HERMAN CAIN - I'd read he was a bright spot in the last GOP debate, but he struck me more as a guy who had some talking points and got lost when he had to veer from them.

5. NEWT GINGRICH - Newt's a good talking-head on cable, but in the debate, did he really listen to some of his answers? At one point he supported the return of McCarthyism when it comes to Muslims, and at another point he made it sound like we'd be living like the Jetsons right now if the "private sector" ran NASA instead of the government.

4. TIM PAWLENTY - He had his moments, but this night will most be remembered for him shying away from Mitt Romney when confronted about his coining of the new phrase "Obamneycare." Gee, it's a neat word but he came off as an internet troll who just had his identity discovered by the celebrity he's been bad-mouthing.

3. RON PAUL - Paul is not afraid to answer any question, and he never sounds like he's trying to be careful about how he answers it. That's why, whether I agree with him or not, I know I'm not going to wince from the pain of watching him tiptoe or tap-dance around an answer the way most other inevitably will. On Afghanistan: "Our national security is not enhanced by our presense there."

But half of the stuff he wants to do, you just know he will never get done. I think he's a symbolic candidate, one where he hopes that some of his ideas might catch hold in the psyche and imagination of a candidate who actually has a chance. I'm sure he'd love to talk Romney's ear off about the Federal Reserve.

2. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Low expectations for her, and she passed them. Don't take that as "She was tremendous!" but she seemed comfortable, she has a backstory that's interesting. (23 foster kids?) She essentially made the case that a Sarah Palin candidacy is unnecessary.

1. MITT ROMNEY - He had the polish of a co-host. Welcome to my debate stage, fellas, can I get you something to drink? He had his own stumbles, but he's the front-runner and no one laid a finger on him.

Now, Hillary Clinton won the first six or eight debates she had with Obama and company, so in the long run, this debate won't mean much. I will say it's nice to have a Forbes-Keyes-Bauer-free stage. I look forward to seeing varied formats in the future. It'll be interesting to see Jon Huntsman join, and what might happen if Palin actually joins.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Hopefuls

2011-06-05T18:37:00.000-07:00

As it stands June 5.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 29.7%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 19.2%
3. (3) Jon Huntsman - 15.5%
4. (6) Sarah Palin - 7.0%
5. (-) Rick Perry - 5.5%
6. (7) Michelle Bachmann - 5.5%
7. (5) Herman Cain - 4.8%
8. (-) Chris Christie - 3.0%
9. (-) Rudy Giuliani - 2.0%
10. (10) Ron Paul - 1.9%
Rising: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Chris Christie
Falling: Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mitch Daniels

Since Mitch Daniels dropped out, there seems to be a desperation among certain GOP players to get someone else in. Rick Perry, Chris Christie and Rudy Giulani have all said they're not running, but the field is perceived as weak enough that maybe some think one of these guys could waltz in and save the day. (Does no one remember Rudy's 2008 campaign?)

But of those that are there, Romney's hold to front-runner status is getting a little tighter, and with this Sarah Palin documentary debuting in Iowa later this month, it's raising speculation she might actually run.

I look at InTrade more than most because this is people putting their money where their mouth is. The one GOP debate did nothing for any participant except Herman Cain. It didn't lose Tim Pawlenty points, but it signalled to voters they can go ahead and keep ignoring Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will always have his sliver of popularity.

I look at Iowa and think Palin has a shot of taking it. Iowa spurned Romney for Huckabee last time after Huck played up the religion angle, and I don't see Iowans being much warmer toward him this time around. Hutsman's already signalled he plays to skip it, and Pawlenty, well, maybe.

Jon Huntsman's lone Iowa supporter

2011-05-31T20:26:00.001-07:00

I'm sure he has more, but this was too funny.

HBO is ruining Game Change

2011-05-19T17:33:00.001-07:00

When I first heard HBO was going to do a movie based on Game Change, the Heilemann/Halperin best-seller, I was excited. And, okay, Ed Harris and Julianne Moore as John McCain and Sarah Palin were good marquee names. But as each day when by, when casting news only circled the McCain storyline, I grew more frustrated and angry.

Game Change was mainly, mainly I stress, about Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama. You had your McCain subplot, and you had your John Edwards subplot, but really, it was about how the underdog Team Obama somehow overcame Team Clinton's inevitability.

Cutting out Hillary and Barack and Edwards of Game Change, to me, is ridiculous. Why would HBO do this? Game Change was a warts-and-all look at everyone (though they were nicest to Obama). But by cutting out about 70% of the book to only show McCain and Palin, I can't help but think this is strictly politically motivated and calculated.

I'm used to HBO programming to be mostly left-leaning, and that's fine. That's Hollywood. But to only focus on the Republicans in 2008, and to then put this movie on TV as the GOP primaries are getting close? Really?

Could be wrong. IMDB.com has the cast list and it looks like only the McCain/Palin stuff was filmed. Maybe we'll get Game Change II in 2013, you know, after (they hope) Obama has been re-elected and a little TV movie can do him no harm.

My current attitude is forget the movie, just read (or re-read) the book.

Huck is out, Trump is out

2011-05-17T07:48:00.000-07:00

Turns out they really like having their own TV shows.

Which must mean that either we're going to get a second season of Sarah Palin's Alaska or she's going to run for President.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 25.1%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 17.5%
3. (3) Jon Huntsman - 11.9%
4. (4) Mitch Daniels - 10.5%
5. (10) Herman Cain - 7.3%
6. (6) Sarah Palin - 5.5%
7. (9) Michelle Bachmann - 5.2%
8. (8) Newt Gingrich - 4.1%
9. (7) Donald Trump - 3.9%
10. (-) Ron Paul - 3.1%

Still not in top ten: Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum. Over before it's begun.