Friday, March 16, 2012

Last Night's Utah GOP Caucus


Sen. Hatch can turn that frown upside-down after last night's results.
Here's what I saw at our meeting in Orem last night.

Every time I go to the GOP caucus, our turnout is larger than expected.  The first one I went to in this area in 2004, we had maybe 20 people.  By 2010, we were up to 80.  Last night, OR28 had 171 credentialled voters show up.

Now I'd planned on running for something, but my wife couldn't come, and my sister had to leave before we got to real voting, and some of my neighbors left... It started at 7:00pm but it was almost 9:00pm by the time we elected our precinct chair.

We had five people run for precinct chair.  Three of the five were vociferous Orrin Hatch supporters, and I'd say about two-thirds of the people in the room were that.  When it came to question time, the only thing the people seemed to want to know was if they'd support Orrin Hatch for a seventh term and if they're affiliated with anyone.  The affliliation question was really about FreedomWorks, which has been running a lot of "Retire Orrin Hatch" ads.  (Personally I don't care for FreedomWorks.)

Pro-Hatch candidates won Chair and Vice-Chair.  I went ahead and ran for Vice-Chair.  I didn't expect to win it, but some of the people who were going to vote for me for State Delegate left.  Then came the election for Secretary/Treasurer.  We had 13 run for State Delegate, including me, and I was one of the lower vote-getters.  I get the feeling if I'd been pro-Hatch, I would have done better, and there were some candidates who softened their "Retire Hatch" stances.  I did say we're representing you, not ordering you, so if the vast majority in this precinct wants Hatch, I'd vote for Hatch.

I believe 10 ran for County Delegate, and I got in on first ballot.

I've been hearing similar stories from all across Utah.  Caucus attendance doubled what it did in 2010, and those extra people were all for Hatch.  Before last night, I would have though for sure Hatch would face a primary run-off, but considering how many state delegates won their election on a "Keep Hatch in Power" platform, I don't think it'll come down to that anymore.

So why such an attendance jump?  Well, there was very good publicity for caucus night.  It's a presidential election year, so people are excited to support Mitt Romney.  It's a Senate race year, and in 2010, Bob Bennett and his supporters were shocked he didn't even make it out of convention.  Orrin Hatch has spent the past two years planning for last night.  Last night was more important for his campaign than the convention, the primary, or election night.  Whoever the Republican nominee is for Senate in Utah can usually pencil in 63% of the vote, and everything after that is a signal as to how strong a candidate he is.

I was not an "Anybody But Hatch" guy, but the past few months made it difficult to remain that way.  I've liked what I heard from Dan Liljenquist, and I hear good things about Chris Herrod, and so I've been able to embrace more and more that we'd have a good candidate with whom to replace Hatch.  Hatch's support for the NDAA and SOPA/PIPA and extending the Patriot Act have just been signals to me how he's okay to nickel-and-dime away freedom, add some more guilty-until-proven-innocent laws to the books.

Also when he originally ran for Senator in 1976, he said abouty his three-term incumbent opponent, "What do you call a Senator who's served for 18 years?  You call him home."  Now he wants to extend his 36 years of service to 42 years.  Hm.

In 2010, it was about the Tea Party.

In 2012, when I was at the rec center this morning, I overheard two old men talking.

One: "The Republican Party has to watch out for that Tea Party. I'd never go to one of their rallies."

Two: "They want to get rid of taxes.  We're $17 trillion in debt! How we going to pay that off with no taxes?"

After last night, I also wonder if they're going to draw up smaller precincts.  With that type of participation, it's something for the Party heads to think about.

BUT!.....

My focus now is on being the most informed county delegate I can be.  Between now and April 14, I'm going to go to my meetings, read the campaign literature, talk to as many people running as I can.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Romney wins Hawaii...


... but the real headlines will be about Mitt Romney coming in third in Alabama and Mississippi.  Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich drawled their best while the cheesy grits fan knew if the money was even, he'd get blown out of the water.  Ironically, Romney may wind up getting more delegates than Santorum from last night.

Now I caught part of Newt Gingrich's "concession" speech, where he spun it as victory and bashed Romney.  It's clear that Gingrich hates Romney, and he can't hide it.  He flaunts his spite.  He also revealed why he will not drop out.  Sure, if he did drop out, maybe the ultraconservative base flocks around Santorum, but say only 70% of them go to Santorum and the rest go to Romney.  At the pace the states are going, Romney could still get to that magical 1144 number.

But if Newt stays in, he vacuums up delegates.  Not as much as Romney or Santorum, but it's enough to possibly keep Mitt from getting 1144.  He's going all in on getting to a brokered convention.  Naturally he's delusional to think if it got to such a point, that the Republican delegates would pick him.  And I do think part of him believes that, but there's nothing more important to Newt than to make sure Mitt Romney is not the GOP nominee.

If Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum somehow wind up with the nomination, I wouldn't vote for them.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Game Change: HBO stands for Help Barack Obama


Game Change debuted on HBO today.  I currently don't have HBO; I'll probably get it for a month so I can watch Season 2 of Game of Thrones, and in that time I may catch Game Change.

I emphasize once again: I loved the book Game Change.  John Heilemann & Mark Halperin's book about the 2008 presidential election was wild and trashy and suspenseful, even though we all knew the outcome.  I was thrilled when HBO announced they were going to make a movie out of it.  While HBO's political movies tend to make Democrats the heroes and Republicans the villains, Game Change was bipartisan excitement, and two-thirds of it would be about the fascinating trio of frontrunner Hillary Clinton, fresh blood Barack Obama, and delusional sociopath John Edwards.

Alas, HBO has revealed itself as Obama's own SuperPAC by cutting all of that out of the movie.  HBO, aka Help Barack Obama, elected to make Sarah Palin the main character, even though she is at best the fifth most prominent character from the book.  I would venture this was a calculated move by HBO, as they guessed Palin would be running for president and this would come out at a good time to weaken her in the primaries, remind people of all her flaws.

I don't care if they say it's a fair take, or it's accurate.  I am fine with them making the McCain-Palin part of the story a two-hour movie. But it bothers me to no end that they didn't tell the other four hours.  It should have been a miniseries.  If they needed to trim it down to two hours then it should have been trimmed down to its main plot:  Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama.

What can I say about HBO, or Heilemann & Halperin, or writer Danny Strong, or director Jay Roach?  It was cowardly, lazy, calculated and craven to give it the title of Game Change and then only tell the Palin story.  It's a bunch of Democrats washing away all the sins on their side to rehash the sins of the Republicans.  Of course it's politically motivated.  Of course it's partisan.

I'm no Palin fan.  I'm relieved she's not running for President.  But I deeply resent what HBO did with a book I enjoyed, and I deeply resent the authors for selling their souls and letting it happen.  If they make Game Change II and tell the rest of the story, maybe that'll be okay.  But I guarantee it wouldn't come out before November 2012.

Here's Byron York's take on the real bias of Game Change.

Stop Joseph Kony 2012

I was Viewer #65,969,792. I really hope this works. I would love to see a movement like this succeed.