Jon Stewart, the next Edward R. Murrow?

The New York Times on why Jon Stewart is more of this generation's Edward R. Murrow or Walter Cronkite than any journalist or cable-news talking-head.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 12/10

From InTrade, based on Bid%:

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21.9%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 19%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.2%
4. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6.7%
5. (8) Mitch Daniels - 6.5%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 5.8%
7. (10) Haley Barbour - 4.3%
8. (-) Mike Pence - 4.1%
9. (7) Newt Gingrich - 4%
10.(6) Jeb Bush - 4%

Rising: Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence
Falling: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan (9)

I should point out that Romney's percentage has dipped and Palin's has increased since last month, and it wouldn't surprise me if in a month or two, she passes him. Thune's percentage has also dipped. I'm not really sure why he's had so much support early from this site, but it's looking like much is going to hinge on that first GOP debate.

Nazi Nazi Nazi

Keith Olbermann and Glenn Beck: stop it!

Elizabeth Edwards passes away

She'll go down in history as wife to the sociopath who almost became Vice-President, but she lost her battle with breast cancer today.

May the HBO movie Game Change be nicer to her than the book was.

The Growing Fascism of the TSA

Definition of fascism: a governmental system that exalts nation above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocracy headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition.

There's growing concern around the nation over the intrusive, abusive new methods of the TSA. Here's takes by George Will, Matt Davis, and the horror stories go on and on.

In this case the "dictator" is John Pistole, and while there are people above him who could stop him, they don't. Is the TSA a fascist movement? No. But whenever talking-heads make political hay over failed terrorist attacks ("yes, but it might have worked") it's the TSA who decides to clamp down on ... passengers.

Why are DC's leaders sitting on their hands while one agency decides to governmentally mandate sexual harrassment and molestation? This needs to be nipped in the bud or it will only get worse. I'm ready for airline security to go back to pre-9/11 security measures. Passengers are heroes, not suspects. If a guy stood up with a boxcutter on my plane, I know that I and the ten other guys nearest me would beat him unconscious, and then we could continue pleasantly on our flight.

All of this is being done in the name of "security." If you really want to be safe, you'd just ban airplanes period.

America likes the Clintons

That's the main positive thing I got out of this polling analysis. The main negative is that Nancy Pelosi has managed to become even less popular than Dick Cheney. Not to mention Huckabee and Romney are better positioned among the general population than Palin and Gingrich.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 11/10

I think I'll do this every month for a year, see how things trend.

From InTrade, where people put their money where their mouth is,
who will be the 2012 GOP presidential candidate? Bid %:

1. Mitt Romney - 22.5%
2. Sarah Palin - 17.8%
3. John Thune - 14.1%
4. Tim Pawlenty - 6.5%
5. Mike Huckabee - 6.1%
6. Jeb Bush - 5.5%
7. Newt Gingrich - 5.2%
8. Mitch Daniels - 4.1%
9. Paul Ryan - 3.2%
10. Haley Barbour - 2.4%

I last did this in July. Back then #9 and #10 belonged to Ron Paul and Bobby Jindal.

MSNBC suspends Keith Olbermann

Not too long after Keith Olbermann railed against NewsCorp for donating to the Republican Governor's Association, he himself donates to three Democratic candidates, and MSNBC prez has suspended him for it.

Howard Kurtz on why it was the right call.

Looking at Twitter, conservatives ranging from Andrew Breitbart and Bill Kristol believe MSNBC was wrong to suspend him. Keith's not a journalist, and GE can donate to campaigns but their employees can't?

Meanwhile his replacement did really well tonight. If MSNBC wants to reinstate some journalistic cred, utterly trashed on Election Night, they should let him ride the chair a few days. Besides, MSNBC saves about, what, $34,000 each night KeithO's not there?

2010 Election - A Thousand Words

Morning After - Cable News Watch

CNN - I liked John King and Wolf Blitzer guiding us through. I liked the panel of about eight people throwing out their analysis. Yes, some of it was bound to be wrong - last night was not a referendum on Obama's communication problem, for instance - but I appreciated the variety.

Fox News - They had more Republicans than Democrats as guests, but they kept it fairly balanced. Joe Trippi and Juan Williams were there to rain on parades and praise the Democrats that kept their seats. I changed the channel whenever Mike Huckabee or Karl Rove spoke... They had the smoothest tally displays.

MSNBC - Pretty much embarrassing. Since Keith Olbermann was chief anchor, no moderates or conservatives were allowed within 100 yards. I suspect Chuck Todd's a moderate, but as long as he keeps his opinions to himself, he's allowed in Keith's presense. I like Chris Matthews enough, but Keith's a caricature at this point, and Rachel Maddow came off as his mean-girl flunkie. Lawrence O'Donnell looked like he wished he had Peggy Noonan to bounce opinions off of.

I miss Tim Russert.

Democrats keep Senate

I never thought the Republicans would take the Senate, but I am surprised where some of the losses came from. I blame Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell squarely on Sarah Palin. And if Lisa Murkowski wins in Alaska, that's one senator Republicans didn't need to alienate.

On the flip side, Marco Rubio looks like the new star of the GOP, and Rand Paul, Nikki Haley, Daniel Webster, Mark Kirk, Pat Toomey are all good stories.

Election night thoughts

Locally, I thought Morgan Philpot would be a lot closer to Jim Matheson than what they're showing so far in the UT-02.

Nationally, I am thrilled that Alan Grayson's gone from the House. I look forward to seeing what the difference will be now that the House is in GOP hands.

I was really hoping Carly Fiorina could pull the upset on Barbara "Ma'am" Boxer, but alas, it's not in the cards.

I've been flipping between CNN, MSNBC and Fox News, and CNN's the best. This is what they live for. Bret Baier and Megyn Kelly have been doing okay anchoring, but when they go to Mike Huckabee or Karl Rove, I change the channel. MSNBC had Keith Olbermann, Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, Eugene Robinson and Lawrence O'Donnell at the desk. Are you kidding me? Chuck Todd was in studio to do the numbers, but I could tell deep inside he was wishing he was giving Brian Williams this information.

Arianna Huffington's stripe changing?

I watch ABC's This Week round-table almost every week. (Personally I think Jake Tapper should get this show back.) I was just particularly amused by the round table where Arianna Huffington enveloped herself in a Jon Stewart blanket, without a hint of irony, denouncing demonizing in politics. She's apparently never read anything she's written in the past few years. Arianna was right-wing in the 1990's, left-wing in the 2000's, now she seems ready to embrace the Jon Stewart civility model. We'll see. But if she means it, good for her.

Different takes on Jon Stewart

Howard Kurtz on Jon Stewart's interview with Pres. Barack Obama.

Tina Brown thinks Stewart's the most trusted branch of government.

The Wall Street Journal harrumphs that Stewart called Obama "dude."

Bipartisan allowance of tax increase in 2011

The Bush tax cuts had an expiration date, shrewdly put in. Almost as if designed to give the GOP something to campaign on in 2010. Now the Democrats have a vast majority in the House and Senate, and the're less than a month away from that majority being severely slimmed or lost altogether.

Tax rates will go up for everyone if the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire. It would seem like a no-brainer to extend the current tax rates in these tumultuous economic times where unemployment just went back up to 10.1% and home values are still way down. But the usual partisan gridlock-games seem to be in effect. The Democrats say they want to extend the rates for those families making $250,000 or less a year, roughly 98% of Americans. Republicans want them extended for everyone.

My suggestion to the Democrats would be to put them up for separate votes. I don't know why this is hard. But the closer we get to the end of the year, the more the creepy feeling kicks in that the tax cuts will expire, the rates will go up for everyone, and the parties will just blame each other for it.

Palin dodging the questions

We know she's running for president, but she can hide behind her Fox News employment to avoid any interview she doesn't want to give. Gingrich and Huckabee are going to enjoy the same buffer, though I don't see Gingrich hiding the way Palin does.

Utah Senate candidates debate

Ken Verdoia moderated. I decided to watch while pretending I don't know what their parties are, see how it would go.


Opening statements:

Mike Lee - Our federal government is too big and too expensive. The jobless rate is increasing every day. I'll let you keep more of your own money.

Scott Bradley - 223 years ago, the US Constitution was born. We've strayed from the Constitution; I'll bring us back.

Sam Granato - Utahns have a real opportunity to elect a mainstream candidate (gestures to self) or an extreme candidate (gestures elsewhere).


QUESTION #1 - State sovereignty, do states have the right to refuse federal money?

Lee - The federal govt was never intended to be all things to all people, refers to 10th Amendment of Constitution. Yes they can refuse. Should citizens be required to work five months of the year to fund exorbitant government programs?

Bradley - The federal government cannot call for redistribution of wealth, no power in US Constitution to do so. The feds even trying to make states take fed money is violation of US Constitution.

Granato - 13 Original Colonies came together with a purpose of inner-state commerce. We send the dollars to DC, we need to take them back. We have the right. We need more transparency. Thank you.


QUESTION #2 - Do you support the DREAM Act and how would that affect universities?

Bradley - This deals with immigration, correct? Immigration is a great challenge. Illegal immigration must be addressed at national level. In the Constitution, Art. I, Sec. 8, Cla. 4 says to take care of those kinds of issues. I'd oppose encouragemen to illegal immigration.

Granato - Fully in favor of it, as are a lot of senators and Congress on both sides of the aisle. Feds have ignored illegal immigration for decades, but I would leave that out of the DREAM Act. Thank you.

Lee - My understanding is it would allow illegal immigrants to pay less tuition. There should be no incentive to illegal immigrants. Most of us in this room are immigrants or descend from them. To be immigrant-friendly place, we need to enforce our laws. Let's get rid of birthright citizenship.


QUESTION #3 - Illegal Immigration, what to do about the millions already here?

Bradley - They broke the law; they need to go home. We're not sending them to a gulag; we're sending them home. Once home, apply thru legal process to return. Catch and release those who fail to go home and never allow them to return. Amnesty in 1986 failed.

Granato - We're a passionate and compassionate state. I do not believe in ripping families apart. We have to find a way to bring them together. We need secure borders. We need workers here to do the jobs that need to be done.

Lee - Just as there are millions here illegally, there are millions outside US who want to come here. It's unfair to the ones waiting to come here to give favoritism to those who broke the laws to be here.


QUESTION #4 - Health care, Vermont wants to try a single-payer system, they'd like exemption from ObamaCare to try it.

Granato - I was part of IHC. Health care is killing small businesses. It's out of whack. We needed a health care bill. I enjoyed that the bill got rid of pre-existing conditions. No I wouldn't help Vermont. We need to come together with the right consensus. The package we got was not the right package. At least it's a start. Thank you.

Lee - Repeal and defund ObamaCare. This will allow states to address health care as they see fit. If Vermont wants to try single-payer govt-run health care system, that's up to Vermont. I will probably never live in Vermont. Let's let the states take a crack at it. States are closer to the people. I run into my state legislator all the time at the grocery store.

Bradley - The US Constitution grants to no authority for federal health care. The states need to resist ObamaCare with all due diligence. I'm opposed to socialized medicine. Medicine is a very personal issue between a physician and a patient. Medicine was great before 1965. Let charities help.

Somewhere around here, the moderator expresses disappointment they haven't gone after each other yet and encourages them to fight.


QUESTION #5 - 42% of Federal spending in on Pentagon budget, not even including Iraq and Afghanistan. What would you cut?

Lee - The Constitution talks about defense. I'm reluctant to say what we need is a cut in defense spending. We don't need cuts in defense spending. This is our very survival. It's the principle reason the 13 colonies came together, to protect themselves. I believe in strong defense.

Bradley - In the Constitution Art. I Sec. 8 on military, we need proper military posture. We're more interested in promoting safe borders in other countries (S. Korea) than our own. My changes would bring us back to a Constitutional perspective of the military. We're not to be the policemen of the world.

Granato - We need keep our men & women safe and out of harm's way. We need to look at every area they're in. As a businessman, I would look at everything, where we could cut, but we need to keep our country and our troops safe. Thank you.


QUESTION #6 - Wave of anti-Muslim sentiments; many Muslims feel threatened. How to mitigate tensions between freedom of speech and religion?

Bradley - I have the 1st Amendment memorized and "We the People..."; Tocqueville observed Americans lived their lives decently becuz they believe in God. What we need is an engagement within each religionto reach out. Stop trying to one-up each other. Burning a Koran or building a mosque at Ground Zero are inflammatory.

Granato - We know Utah was founded Mormons persecuted in the East. We need education. We have too much extremism. People for the most part are good. It starts a lot w/ fed government reaching out, helping the folks. Address the issue, not ignore it. Let's come together. Thank you.

Lee - Just becuz you can doesn't mean you should. We as citizens should remember that w/ rights come responsibilities. We don't have to be enemies just becuz we worship at a different altar.


QUESTION #7 - What one issue do you fear the most, so complex that would keep you up at night?

Granato - These are no easy shoot-from-the-hip solutions. "Both sides of the aisle." I can't tell you what would keep me up at night becuz I'm not afraid to get in and get the job done. I've done that my whole career. Analyze your situation and forget your fear.

Lee - We're losing jobs. Jobs is number one. The fed govt controls too much of the job market. Govt takes 25% of every dollar, massive spending, massive taxes. Debt almost $15 trillion. People feel ill-at-ease to invest. We have to reverse this. It's not easy or quick, but the solution has to involve a balanced-budget amendment.

Bradley - I've had this problem for decades. It has to do with continuing those that in office in violation of their office. We have spiralled downward as a nation. Those that hold office must honor their oath of office, so help me God. All the challenges are fairly simple if the reps return to the principles of the Constitution.


QUESTION #8 - What about radioactive waste?

Lee - Father Rex Lee died from lymphoma, exposed to radiation, "down-winder." I will fight tooth and nail to keep waste out, fought tirelessly under Huntsman to keep it out. We have a beautiful state, and I will fight to keep it that way, to maintain healthy environment.

Bradley - This state shall not become a dumping ground for anybody. it is not the natl govt's perogative to force it on us. This soculd be taken as anti-nuclear philopsophy. I am for nuclear power. Waste can be recycled until it's innocuous. That should be stored on the site where it's created.

Granato - Mike, you confuse me. You fought under Huntsman to keep out foreign nuclear waste, then you joined EnergySolutions to fight to bring it in. You used your family connections, which way are you going?

Lee (rebuttal) - I respectfully disagree with everything you just said. I've never worked for EnergySolutions, I served them as outside counsel. Fought on Constitutional grounds.


QUESTION #9 - What will you do to preserve Social security?

Bradley - The natl govt has no power to redistribute wealth; it doesn't show in Constitution. Soc Security has pillaged and plundered, it has run the end of its course. We're on a death spiral. Soc Security will fail unless we raise retirement rates. It should be voluntary. Look at my website.

Granato - It's a lifeline for so many people. 38% of people receiving it in Utah would be in poverty w/o it. Lee wants to raise retirement age to 75? Fed govt needs to maintain program. Thank you.

Lee - First, all those already retired will have no change. It would be immoral and impractical to take benefits away from those who've already retired. Demise of Soc Security has already been forecast by mathematicians. We need to raise retirement age.


QUESTION #10 - From staff sergeant who just did 3rd tour of duty: What's your foreign policy regarding Afghanistan specifically?

Granato - We don't belong there, but we're there. It's Obama's to finish. The sooner we get out, the better off we'll be.

Lee - We need to keep them there as long as it takes, then give them the promise we'll bring them home when job is done. Bring troop count down, focus more on counter-terror activities. Make sure al-Qaeda strongholds don't develop in Afghanistan. We've got to eliminate them.

Bradley - I was staff sergeant 40 years ago so I can perhaps identify. We went to get bin Laden, no to get Al Qaeda, no to nation-build, oh there are some minerals there we can't let China get. Afghanistan is mission-creep in worst sense. Our troops have done their job bravely. We should make a strategic withdrawal.


QUESTION #11 - Don't Ask Don't Tell

Lee - I consulted w/ panel of generals, colonels, etc. They've informed me DADT works and should be maintained. I'm following that recommendation.

Bradley - Unit cohesiveness is prime directive. Can't have homosexuals next to others not of that peruasion, can't have troops crawling over their sleeping bags at night figuring out what to do. I oppose removing DADT.

Granato - I think it's an insult to the gays already serving in the military. I would support elimination of DADT. Thank you.


Closing statements:

Granato - I'm mainstream, I'm moderate, once I get to Washington I will be looking for what I can do for Utah. It's about jobs and the economy. It's about optimism. Thank you.

Lee - Pleasure to be here. We live in a time of great conflict. Reagan prophetically declared "It's morning in America again." (Let me pick up that name I just dropped.) Reclaim the right to limited federal government. As we limit govt, we'll create jobs.

Bradley - I've spent my life trying to bring forth the principles of freedom.

Overall, I was vastly underwhelmed. Full of safe, pat, contained answers. Only once all night did any candidate engage anyone else, when Granato tried to illustrate Lee's different positions on nuclear waste, which Lee immediately slapped down, and then the moderator moved on. Lee and Bradley also seemed to have a side-bet as to who could bring up the Constitution more.

After a while Bradley came off as a self-parody. "What would you like for dinner, Mr. Bradley?" "The Constitution gives me the freedom to choose spaghetti." What I got from Bradley is he's for lower taxes, probably a flat tax, kicking all illegal immigrants out of the country, get rid of ObamaCare and leave people with giant medical bills to look to charities for help and not the feds, get rid of Social Security, get out of Afghanistan and Iraq, take the troops home from their bases in South Korea and Germany and let them protect our borders, homosexuals are gross, and showing off that he's memorized the Constitution.

Granato looked like a zookeeper trying not to scare the lemurs that escaped from their pen. If he said the word "Obama", 70% of the audience might stampede from the room. He emphasized working together, reaching across the aisle, let's work this out. He's for keeping the federal govt accountable, using their money (which isn't really their money), mainstream, moderate, really hoping the audience caught his subtext that Lee & Bradley are extremists. Thank you.

Lee took a professorial tone which was really off-putting. "Allow me to educate you on the Constitution and what our Founding Fathers intended." I think all three of them felt like they had to really dumb down their answers. Except when quoting the Constitution. Lee's for cutting spending everywhere except defense, which surprised me. For all his fiscal talk, surely all departments should be open to cutting waste? Let's get everything back to small government and states rights. Repeal the 14th Amendment and send illegals home, be friendly to legal immigrants coming in. Balance the budget, pay down the debt, we need to reform and maybe phase out Social Security. He seems okay with staying in Afghanistan.

If this was all I had to go on, I would be disappointed in my choices as to who I want to represent me.

Bradley's the Constitution Party candidate, Granato's the Democrat, and Lee's the Tea Party Republican.

Value Voters like Mike Pence

After the weekend of the Value Voters Summit, they took their poll, and Mike Huckabee has been dethroned by Mike Pence.

Out of 723 social conservatives there, the vote went as such:

1. Mike Pence - 28%
2. Mike Huckabee - 22%
3. Mitt Romney - 13%
4. Newt Gingrich - 10%
5. Sarah Palin - 7%
6. Rick Santorum - 5%
7. Jim DeMint - 5%
8. Bobby Jindal - 2%
9. Mitch Daniels - 2%
10. Chris Christie - 2%
11. John Thune - 2%
12. Undecided - 2%

Tim pawlenty and Michelle Bachmann asked to not be part of the poll. Also in the poll were Bob McDonnell, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Haley Barbour, Ron Paul, and getting one vote, Arizona governor Jan Brewer.

Noonan drinks some Tea

Peggy Noonan, former Reagan speechwriter, frequent talking-head on Sunday news shows, is dealing with her own feelings on the Tea party.

So far, the tea party is not a wing of the GOP but a critique of it. This was demonstrated in spectacular fashion when GOP operatives dismissed tea party-backed Christine O'Donnell in Delaware. The Republican establishment is "the reason we even have the Tea Party movement," shot back columnist and tea party enthusiast Andrea Tantaros in the New York Daily News. It was the Bush administration that "ran up deficits" and gave us "open borders" and "Medicare Part D and busted budgets."

Bye bye, Karl Rove

How quickly the once mighty can fall. Karl Rove, the "architect", "Bush's brain", enjoyer of his cushy job as Fox News Analyst and even recent guest host for Rush Limbaugh, criticized the wrong candidate and has been blasted by the ... what do I call them? Right-wing establishment? Tea Party Express conductors?

Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Michelle Malkin, Mark Levin all came down on Rove for slamming Christine O'Donnell after her win.

Polls show O'Donnell behind Chris Coons by double-digits, but based on this year's primaries, it's probably too soon to assume anything.

As for Rove, he's the one who said deficits don't matter.

Tea Party Scorecard

Dave Weigel breaks it down.

November will be where it all matters.

Mike Lee wants to change the Constitution

"The Constitution was made to be amended from time to time. Sometimes we have to do that in order to make the Constitution more true to the American dream." - Mike Lee on CNN

I just don't know about this guy. I shook his hand once early in the primary process. I listened to him debate. I've had people all but bear their testimony to me that Mike Lee is true. But there's things about him that make me uncomfortable.

For one, he boasts of being a Constitutional expert. Well, seeing as how he wants to remove some Amendments and add new ones, I'm supposed to just trust that he knows what the founding fathers intended or that his definiton of "the American dream" is the right one.

He wants to remove the 14th Amendment with birthright citizenship. This is wrong to me.

He wants to remove the 17th Amendment which allows voters to pick their senators. This would give the people even less power in the electoral process where so many voters already feel disenfranchised.

And I take it he wants to remove the 16th Amendment. From his website:

With 50% of wage earners paying little or no taxes, too many voters have no “skin in the game”—and no reason to question new government programs that are funded by the real taxpayers. Until we reform the tax code to give all Americans a stake in their government (through the fair or flat tax), Congress will continue to adopt new entitlements, new bailouts, and new relief programs."

In other words, he wants to raise taxes on the poorest half of America.

I voted for Tim Bridgewater in the primary. I just found his campaign less offensive than Lee's. It bothers me that Lee is part of another potential Utah aristocracy, coasting on the fame and goodwill toward his father, the late Rex E. Lee, and a brother on the Utah Supreme Court.

I wanted Bennett out because he originally promised to only serve two terms when he ran, and here he was going for a fourth term. And now it looks like Utah's next senator is not really from the Republican party, but from the Tea party. Now that the Tea party has shifting from a real grass-roots movement to being co-opted by special-interest groups, I'm ready for the anger to simmer and the non-Democrats in DC to focus on responsible governing. We don't need them to govern angry, just govern responsibly.

Another Iowa Straw Poll Coming

There will be some new names to choose from in Iowa.

Among the new candidates in the poll are Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Senate hopeful Marco Rubio, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell.

Most of the expected crop of presidential candidates made the straw poll, including former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Reps. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Mike Pence of Indiana and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal also made this year’s ballot.
Yet even after picking 17 candidates, the straw poll left out Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and South Dakota Sen. John Thune, both reported to be exploring presidential runs.

And even though he's denied running, where's Jeb Bush?

The College Tuition Bubble

Real-estate's bubble burst. Is it time for higher education's? I would hope so. Seems nuts to send graduates out in to the world with poor job prospects and $100,000 in debt with skyrocketing college pricing.

Joe Scarborough doesn't watch MSNBC much

Otherwise he wouldn't have been surprised by what he saw.

The Next GOP Nominee Brought to You by Fox News

An early, likely meaningless, poll taken out in Iowa shows that three of the four top nominees for the 2012 Republican nomination are Fox News contributors. I'm pretty sure Newt's not under contract, but he doesn't go two weeks without appearing, and Huck & Palin ARE signed employees. Looks like Romney will need to step up his appearances.

1. Mike Huckabee - 22%
2. Mitt Romney - 18%
3. Newt Gingrich - 14%
4. Sarah Palin - 11%
5. Ron Paul - 5%

Others: Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Rick Perry

Olbermann slams O'Reilly's dead father

Cable news is a circus show, but there's one freak who just has no shame, and it's preceisely because he remains firmly entrenched in his echo chamber. Keitho attacks O'Reilly pretty much every day, and O'Reilly, to my knowledge, has not uttered Keith's name on air in years. He's above it. And I think that feeds Keitho's rage and makes him try harder to provoke Papa Bear.

Keitho's latest seems unusually low-class even for him. Granted, Bill going after Jennifer Aniston's comments about fathers seemed like not the most wise use of precious broadcast minutes, but Keitho attacking Bill's father and using that as psycho-analysis? I am glad I don't understand him. And I'd thank NBC once again for not making Bob Costas share a NFL TV show with him this fall.

Don't Repeal the 14th Amendment

When you have Lindsay Graham and John Boehner entertaining the idea, it's time to squash it. GOP, if you go down this path, you will lose more votes than you gain.

Top 100 Stimulus Wastes

Courtesy o' the distinguished Senators Coburn & McCain.

Worst Job-Loss Recession Ever?

It looks like ever since the Democrats took control of the House and Senate, the US has entered the worst job-loss recession ever, at least in the worst post-WWII. And if the trend plays out, we're several years away from unemployment ever getting back up to 5%.

InTrade Watch on GOP Presidential Hopefuls

I love this site. Here's the latest numbers on who traders think will take the GOP nomination.

1. Mitt Romney - 29%
2. Sarah Palin - 19.4%
3. John Thune - 12.7%
4. Tim Pawlenty - 11.1%
5. Newt Gingrich - 10.1%
6. Mitch Daniels - 7.5%
7. Jeb Bush - 6%
8. Mike Huckabee - 5.2%
9. Ron Paul - 3.5%
10. Bobby Jindal - 1.7%

I'm not really sure why Thune ranks so high. I don't see or hear from him much on the news, but I'll keep a closer eye on him. There are other names I can see, like Mike Pence or Eric Cantor, who might want to test the waters. Bobby Jindal fell after people compared his accent to "Kenneth the Page" from 30 Rock, but his hands-on approach to the BP oil spill could help him later, should he aspire.

Mitt Romney will be the front-runner, and if unemployment stays high, his momentum will increase. He has plenty of soundbites from the 2008 campaign that are going to come back to hurt him, and personally I think if Jeb Bush runs, Romney won't prevail.

I have a hard time believing Palin will actually run in 2012. I have a hard time taking her seriously. Plus she'd make a lot more money not running.

Will Jeb Bush run in 2012?

I think he will. I think a lot of Republicans of the smoke-filled-room ilk will want him to run, and the media speculation is growing.

Arizona could get "anchor babies" next

I understand the need for illegal immigration reform, but to go after babies just seems wrong.

Sen. Bob Bennett ousted by GOP delegates

"Throw the bums out!" should mean something. Usually it means "Throw your bums out, but we'll keep our incumbents."

Utah delegates released Bennett from the Senate after 18 years of service. For me, it always came back to his pledge he made in 1992, when he said he'd only serve two terms. He served three. Eighteen years. Plenty of time to get done what you want to get done.

And at this point, I'd recommend to Sen. Orrin Hatch to consider retiring in 2012. Jason Chaffetz, freshman Congressman from Utah's 3rd, will probably run for that seat then, and I'd wager the anti-incumbent sentiment will still be high.

Talk radio doesn't help

If I want to explain to my son why I'm conservative, talk radio does me no favors. What I consider conservative and what, say, Michael Savage or Mark Levin might call conservative might be two different things, depending on the topic, but even their approach just doesn't help.

The other day Mancow was on, and he referred to Obama as "our Muslim president." Doesn't exactly win over the youth of America. I'm disappointed to learn that 860AM has dropped Joe Scarborough and expanded Mancow to three hours. (Unless Joe's dropping his radio show...?)

Rush Limbaugh's gone overboard since Obama took over. Sean Hannity's always been a predictable talking-points partisan. Michael Savage is who he is. I can't stand two minutes of Neil Boortz. Bob Lonsberry's voice is like chewing tinfoil. Glenn Beck's radio show is more playful than his TV show, but you never know when you're going to wade into "conspiracy theory" waters. Jerry Doyle... meh. Michael Medved's probably the most thoughtful one on around here. The last couple times I tried Mark Levin he literally yelled his monologue. Dennis Miller never takes himself too seriously. Laura Ingraham can be okay sometimes. I liked Joe Scarborough, but he's gone. I like the Washington Times opinionated newscast.

Utah County Convention

This happened Saturday. I was elected as an alternate delegate, but when a delegate's mother died and I stepped in, the "party" refused to let me in. I went anyway.

Immediately it became clear that the majority of Republicans are unhappy with Taylor Oldroyd as party chair. I heard several people who came out of the initial executive committee meeting asking if they could just declare the chair vacant.

Even though I wasn't allowed to participate, I take comfort that my one vote wouldn't have changed the outcome of anything. Brad Daw beat Calvin Harper by more than 60% and will be the GOP nominee for our district's House seat. Most of the county nominations went the way I would have, or my vote wouldn't have stopped them anyway.

In the speeches, Steve White threw out that Gayle Ruzicka supported him, which drew snickers from the section I was sitting in. White was soundly beaten by Doug Whitney for County Commissioner.

Next time I plan to be nominated as an actual delegate.

Obama can only be as radical as his party

Michael Medved asks is Hillary would have done anything differently.

Holy Ghost Hokey Pokey

When I was a kid, I used to resent Jim Bakker and Jimmy Swaggart's TV shows. They just seemed so fake; why did people keep sending them money? I was not surprised when they fell.

Now here's the next generation. It's just... my, my. My favorite is the bored keyboardist in the background.

Utah County GOP Meet-and-Mingle

I had a chance to go to this, as I may or may not be a county delegate. (Jury's still out.) Got to meet UC Commissioner nominees Gary Anderson, Steve White, Leon Frazier, Doug Whitney and Linda Houskeeper; the three sheriff candidates Jim Tracy, Robin Wall, Dan Burton; and other nominees for UC Recorder, Surveyor, etc. The big meeting's tomorrow, so I'll learn more from meeting more people and hearing what they have to say. It IS pretty apparent that there are certain incumbents that would really like other incumbents out, and certain challengers who really want other incumbents out.

Are we overdue for a Constitutional Convention?

Interesting question.

Wingnuts author lists his favorites centrist pundits

John Avlon, author of Wingnuts, which looks at the extremes on the political spectrum, made a list of his 25 favorites centrists, most of whom made me think "They're a centrist?" What he really means are his favorite center-right or center-left people who aren't afraid to criticize their own side. Interesting that not one is from Fox News.

1. Kathleen Parker - Center-right Washington Post columnist who received grief in 2008 when she said that Sarah Palin ain't that bright. Often appears on NBC's The Chris Matthews Show.

2. David Brooks - Center-right New York Times columnist - their token conservative -he frequently guests on NBC's Meet the Press.

3. Michael Smerconish - Center-right Philly radio host, frequent MSNBC guest, he voted for Obama in 2008.

4. Matt Miller - The "center" from NPR's "Left, Right & Center."

5. David Frum - Former Bush staffer blasted for calling the Health Care Reform bill's passage as the "Waterloo" for Republicans. He wrote a cover story in Newsweek last year on why Rush Limbaugh is wrong.

6. Irshad Manji - Author of The Trouble with Islam Today.

7. Jon Stewart - Center-left host of The Daily Show, he's clearly progressive but has no problem blasting lefties when they make fools of themselves.

8. Joe Scarborough - Center-right former GOP congressman and host of MSNBC's Morning Joe, he'll debate anyone and he'll do in a civil manner. I keep hoping he'll debate Keith Olbermann, because I know he'd clean his clock, but Olby will never let that happen.

9. Andrew Sullivan - Center-right blogger for The Atlantic, he's big on the Reagan-Thatcher era of conservatism but disgusted with today's neocon movement and the rise of Sarah Palin.

10. Ron Brownstein - Frequent NBC talking-head who loves criticizes extremists.

11. Mark McKinnon - Helped John McCain in 2008, now a center-right columnist for The Daily Beast.

12. David Gergen - CNN talking-head, he worked in the White Houses of Nixon, Reagan and Clinton.

13. Harold Ford Jr. - Former Democrat congressman, current MSNBC talking head. I guess he made this list because he's polite.

14. Charles Johnson - Blogger from LittleGreenFootballs.com.

15. Doug Schoen - Former Clinton pollster, he'd love to see an end of the two-party system.

16. Peggy Noonan - Center-right speechwriter for Reagan, Wall Street Journal columnist, often appear on ABC's This Week.

17. Thomas Friedman - Liberal New York Times columnist; he's one I was surprised to see on this list. He wrote The World Is Flat.

18. David Broder - Longtime columnist/talking-head who's believed the two-party system's been broken for decades.

19. Joe Klein - Liberal Time columnist, another one where I guess I need to reread some of his stuff. Also appears a lot on NBC's Chris Matthews Show.

20. Christopher Buckley - Son of conservative stalwart William F. Buckley, he endorsed Obama in 2008, now works as a columnist for The Daily Beast.

21. Robert Guest - columnist for The Economist.

22. Jonathan Capehart - MSNBC talking-head. I thought he was flat-out liberal but maybe I've just caught him at all the wrong times.

23. Joe Gandelman - Founder of TheModerateVoice.com.

24. Ronn Owens - Author of Voice of Reason: Why the Left & Right Are Wrong.

25. Patricia Murphy - Never heard of her.

RNC's Michael Steele plays the race card

Personally I look forward to what SNL's Kenan Thompson will do with the latest Michael Steele bungling. Letting $1600 for a lesbian bondage club land on an RNC credit card was bad enough, but now to whine racism? Really?

Reuters photographer killed by US troops in 2007

One of those horrible, horrible mistakes that begs the question: why are we still in Iraq?

FBI makes arrest over threat to kill GOP Rep. Eric Cantor

Calm down, people.

Health Care Voting Breakdown

Looks pretty simple. If you're a Democrat, and your district voted for Obama, you voted for the bill, with few exceptions.

Utah has the skinniest kids in the USA

So says this article.

Bret Baier's interview with Barack Obama

The first time I remember seeing Bret Baier was this one-hour news special on Donald Rumsfeld somewhere around 2004. It was the biggest love-letter puff-piece I'd ever seen. Maybe it's because I thought Donald Rumsfeld was turning out to be one of our worst Defense Secretaries in the past hundred years. But I also knew, watching it, that Baier was a star on the rise at Fox News.

I thought Baier did as well as he could have in the interview. He knew he only had 20 minutes, and Obama seemed intent on filibustering with lengthy platitudes, and Baier had no choice but to interrupt to try to get straight answers. So in the end, the first two-thirds of the interview were all on process. I didn't really learn much from the interview beyond process and tactics and procedure.

Obama seemed willing to give more time and less platitudes when Major Garrett interviewed him earlier, but that might be because Garrett's the most impartial reporter FNC has. Obama can criticize Hannity and Beck, etc., all he wants, but kudos to the other journalists for standing up to the White House when they tried to freeze out the entire network.

Ensign should resign

Two things I get out of this article. Sen. John Ensign should resign, and, wait, Barbara "Ma'am" Boxer is in charge of the ethics committee?!

Oh, Washington. No wonder we have so little faith in thee.

Return of the Killer Bees

I wonder if the bee population is going to come back with a vengeance.

Hitchens on the Pope

Christopher Hitchens, stalwart atheist, weighs in on the scandals surrounding the Pope.

Anyone who saw the documentary "Deliver Us From Evil" is not surprised by what's going on.

State Rep. Kevin Garn's scandal

I can't believe he didn't announce his immediate resignation.

Paul Ryan's plan no better

Sure would be nice if the middle class would stop getting picked on.

I think what's most alarming to me is just how low the lowest income still gets you into the Top 1% of America.

Beck fed up with Massa

After this interview with retiring Democratic Rep. Eric Massa, Glenn Beck apologized to Americ for wasting their time.

Patriots for a Moral Utah is a Yes Men hoax

I'm glad it didn't fool too many people.

Press Conference?

Wow, Paul Jackson and Nora Young.

Still say this is a hoax.

Was anyone else there?
Did they seem like real people?

Massa goes down swinging

Not too often do you see retiring Congressman napalming their bridges as they go like this. Is "Devil's Spawn" going to stick as Rahm's new nickname?

"Patriots for a Moral Utah" is a hoax

To all those who've been tricked this time around: the "patriots for a moral utah" is a hoax. There is no petition to force gays to move out of Utah. It is a hoax. Repeat, a hoax. Not a very funny one, but it's either designed to just make Utah look bad or to mirror the 19th century legislation from Missouri that made it legal to exterminate Mormons to get them out of their state.

Sure would like to know who started it...

Could Tim Pawlenty win the GOP nom?

This guy thinks so, and I only link because he correctly pegged John McCain in 2007, back when McCain's campaign looked like it was over before it had begun.

1) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota.
2) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana.
3) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas.
4) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina.
5) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi.
6) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana.
7) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota.
8) Mitt Romney, former Governor from Massachusetts.
9) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
10) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida.
11) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana.
12) Bob Corker, US Senator from Tennessee.
13) John Kasich, former US Congressman from Ohio.
14) Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska.
15) Dan Quayle, former Vice President.

His list goes to 25.

I saw clips of Pawlenty's CPAC speech and thought it wasn't very good. The Elin Woods reference was bad timing. But he has time to get better, and voters tends to like governors. From what I've seen, I'm more interested in what Mike Pence and Mitch Daniels are going to do. I would rank Mitt Romney higher, but I think he's the placeholder until The Powers That Be can find a candidate they like more.

Man. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have too much power.

Mitt Romney backs John McCain

McCain seemed to genuinely despise Romney in 2008, but I guess they made up. Mitt's eating the same crow McCain had to eat in 2000 and 2004 to get the nomination down the road. Or maybe they actually got to know each other and found enough common ground.

At the same time, I've been doing some reading on McCain's opponent J.D. Hayworth, who was big on fiery rhetoric while in Congress and has only amped it up since becoming a radio talk-show host after losing his election in 2006. I remember seeing him from time to time on Hardball or shows like that in the 1990's.

Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll

The Conservative Political Action Committee took its straw poll for who they'd prefer to run for President in 2012.

1. Ron Paul - 31%
2. Mitt Romney - 22%
3. Sarah Palin - 7%
4. Tim Pawlenty - 6%
5. Mike Pence - 5%
6. Newt Gingrich - 4%
7. Mike Huckabee - 4%
8. Other/Undecided - 11%

Also in the poll were Mitch Daniels, Rick Santorum, John Thune and Haley Barbour.

I think this shows the Libertarian tide is rising in the Republican party.

On the other hand, Ron Paul is even older than John McCain.

Game Change - Book Review

"Game Change" by John Heileman & Mark Halperin

This book makes the 2008 election vibrant and new. It's a warts-and-all account of the most exciting presidential election in a generation. (Bush vs. Gore wound up being a nailbiter, but Bradley was never a threat to Gore, and Bush had McCain torpedoed after his people's slimy South Carolina whisper campaign against McCain's adoptive daughter).

The first two-thirds are where the action was. The Democratic Primary.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary had the experience, the name recognition, the money, the polling, everything, to the point she was looking into who should populate her transition team before Iowa ever happened. This book also points out that while publicly she had the support of many of her fellow Democratic senators, privately there were several, most importantly Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid, who were desperately trying to find someone who could stop her. Like a good novel, it switches to be sympathetic to whoever it's focussed on, and there were points in the book where I sympathized with Hillary. The MSM ignored the first fifteen debates where she beat Obama, but once she had a gaffe, oh baby, it exploded.

The sad thing is, if Hillary had ignored Iowa and just focussed on New Hampshire and beyond, she probably would have won the nomination. But a third place finish in Iowa where she'd spent so much money was a first-round punch to the jaw she never recovered from. The book highlights the missteps of her staff, primarily that of Mark Penn, who comes across as an odious leech by the end. The book also makes clear that Bill continues to cheat on Hillary, and that both deeply resented the media not being fair. To this day, I'd wager Bill doesn't care much for Barack.

There were elements I remember from the campaign that the book didn't cover, like the fuss over Michigan and Florida not having their delegates counted, or only half-counted, when Hillary took victory laps anyway. (Giving so much power to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina has always seemed one of the least democratic ways to select party nominees, but I could digress on that for a while...) When she was upset about something, her staffers took her wrath. (Then again, I'm assuming most of the anonymous sources were staffers disillusioned by the process.) In the end, Hillary's campaign would have been better if she could have cloned herself rather than hire other people.

Barack Obama

Ironic that a guy from such a humble background came across as someone born with a silver spoon in his mouth. We don't really get that much from before 2004, but Obama's keynote speech at the 2004 convention was his rock-star moment. Reid and others encouraged him to run for president, but a talk with Reid seemed to be what cemented for Obama to run. I don't know that he would have run if he didn't have the encouragement of so many insiders to "do it now."

It's easy to forget how behind Obama was just a couple months before the Iowa vote. Hillary really did look like a juggernaut, but a gaffe or two later, and the field was wide open.

Even in the book, Obama always comes across as cool, collected, furrowing his brow on occasion, or displaying the same potty-mouth all these people apparently have. (I would love my older kids to read this book if it weren't for all the profanity in it.)

John Edwards

The book is not kind to Elizabeth Edwards, but it would be hard to be unfair to a sociopath like John Edwards. I should say all the candidates have a little sociopathy to them - you'd have to be crazy to want to go through the rigors of running for and being president these days - but John's a shallow, callow, vainglorious weenie. When it's become obvious to his staffers that he's the father of Rielle Hunter's baby, they gather and wonder for the good of the country what they should do to get this stuff leaked. And still John is deluded enough to think he can get Obama to make him vice-president or attorney general.

The rest of the players barely warrant a peep.

Then we have the Republican primary. Since it was decided upon much sooner, John McCain's is the only story told there. We have some mention of Rudy Giuliani and how nutty his Florida-or-bust strategy was, especially after he thinks he has Charlie Crist's endorsement only to have Crist back out. Mitt Romney gets a page or two, mostly about how much his opponents disliked him and how none of them took him seriously because of "the Mormon thing," and Mike Huckabee gets a little shout-out for tag-teaming with McCain to block others, only to have his own campaign end on a futile note. I would've liked more behind-the-scenes insight on Romney and Huckabee, especially since those two seemed destined for a mud-wrestling rematch in a year or so.

McCain, it seems, wasn't sure if he was going to run for president or not. He enjoys the Senate, and he really was starting to feel his age. I forget how dead his campaign appeared to be in the summer of 2007, before it even got off the ground. But once his juices got flowing, his juice got flowing. And yet there are times when all the old-man jokes applied. There are scenes in the book where McCain might as well be shuffling about in a bathrobe muttering about kids these days.

McCain and Hillary also genuinely like each other. If Hillary's not popular with Democratic senators when she's not there, McCain is equally scorned by GOP leaders. Toward the end, it's as though McCain has Lindsay Graham, Joe Lieberman, and no one else. And McCain was very, very close to selecting Joe Lieberman for VP.

McCain and Obama, though, did not like each other, and that made their debates quite interesting.

The VP picks are whole chapters unto themselves of fascination. Joe Biden's gum-flapping and Sarah Palin's vetting (where the aides learned too late that she tended to provide "sanitized" versions of the truth) are eye-opening, but I felt for both of them in their situations. Palin clearly wasn't ready then, but her convention speech made her the biggest star in the sky. For a week or so. And things got so tense between Barack and Joe before the election they had to meet and make up.

Did you remember the race was statistically even in September?

Then the economy collapsed, and then McCain halted his campaign to go to Washington to get some sort of TARP deal done. Obama went too, and in Bush's cameo in the book, it seems clear Obama's more of a leader, a "decider", than McCain. And we know how things split from there.

It reads like a trashy romance novel at times, but that's partly what makes it gripping. These were the real people, and based on reactions from the players, they pretty much got it right.

Unbridled hatemongering

When extremists go too far on one side or the other, they tend to be ignored after a while. Hence most conservatives don't acknowledge Michael Savage anymore, even though he still has a fervent radio following. On the left, there are plenty of attack dogs, but the liberal with the highest cable ratings remains Keith Olbermann (around 1 million viewers). About once a week, he has his Special Comments, where he rages and rails and spews hate against one person or another. His monologue against Scott Brown just spiralled into delirium, concluding thusly:

In Scott Brown we have an irresponsible, homophobic, racist, reactionary, ex-nude-model, tea-bagging supporter of violence against women and against politicians with whom he disagrees.

At least he doesn't call for his assassination.

2008 was about change; so is 2010

Obama won in 2008 due to his message of "Change." But 2009 didn't see much change that was for the better, especially when it came to the shenanigans of Congress. Now a Republican might actually win the Senate seat once held by liberal lion Ted Kennedy.

"Change" means that Democrats in blue states and Republicans in red states and incumbents in all states should be worried this year.

Crocodile tears over Harry Reid

I don't think what Harry Reid said was racist, necessarily. But what kind of white man uses the word "Negro" and isn't talking about a college fund or quoting Quentin Tarantino dialogue? It's just weird.

But we live in a world of 24-hour news, where it's the same two or three stories punditized to death, with the professionally offended out to talk as a head.

Hey, crocodile tears brought down George Allen over the word "macaca" so maybe it'll work against Reid.

Palin & Huckabee on Fox News now

Mike Huckabee shielded himself from beltway conservative criticism by joining the Fox News Channel family. Now Sarah Palin has done the same.

Now those two have a cake-walk to the Iowa primary from FNC.

Chilling.

Tucker Carlson's new site

http://dailycaller.com

And Arianna Huffington gave him a nice welcome letter on his first day.

National Political Predictions for 2010

1. The Democrats keep their majority in the Senate by 3, and the GOP wins the House by 3.

2. Unemployment gets back to the 9% range.

3. There will be another failed terrorist attack that politicians will nevertheless freak out about, make political hay, demand increased security-this and guidelines-that, only serving to increase government power and punish all people who fly.

4. Keith Olbermann will allow Pat Buchanan on his show for one segment, then end it early so a dissenting viewpoint isn't allowed to fully form.

5. Chris Dodd does not return to the Senate.