Perry passes Romney at InTrade

As of July 31.

1. (3) Rick Perry - 31.6%
2. (1) Mitt Romney - 28%
3. (5) Jon Huntsman - 7.3%
4. (2) Michelle Bachmann - 7.2%
5. (6) Sarah Palin - 6.6%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 6.1%
7. (7) Ron Paul - 2.2%
8. (10) Rudy Guiliani - 2%
9. (9) Chris Christie - 1.6%
10. (8) Newt Gingrich - 0.8%

I've been amazed by the meteoric rise of Rick Perry the past couple months. Why, post-Dubya, would Republican establishment members be courting the next governor from Texas? I watched the Chris Matthews Show yesterday to watch him and his guests debate it, and they showed clips of Perry where he even sounds just like George W. Bush. I can't imagine him turning too many blue states red. But "they" have been looking for the anti-Romney for a long time, and now they believe they have their guy.

And Perry hasn't officially announced either.

The campaigns of Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Thad McCotter appear to be lost causes. I keep hearing that Newt Gingrich hasn't dropped out yet because he's still in debt and needs to raise some money just to pay for his failed bid.

I really doubt Rudy Guiliani and Chris Christie will get in, and yet they have their fans still hoping against hope.

Sarah Palin I am more inclined to think she won't get in, but she wants to keep America guessing right up until Iowa.

Regarding 'The Undefeated'

There hasn't been and never will be a presidential candidate where I'd want to see a rah-rah "only the good stuff" documentary of their political career in a movie theater. The unsubtle Sarah Palin documentary The Undefeated dropped over 60% in its second weekend and now will be looking for Video-on-Demand release. Maybe I'll see it on DVD if she actually runs. I don't think she'll run.

Rick Perry continues to make bedroom eyes toward GOP donors, hinting, flirting, teasing that he might get in the race. I can actually see him jumping in. I don't think he'd beat Mitt Romney as easily as some think, but he'd make it a tighter race, as long-term very few believe Michelle Bachmann could actually win the nomination.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Hopeful

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 34.9%
2. (6) Michelle Bachmann - 17.7%
3. (5) Rick Perry - 14.2%
4. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 9%
5. (3) Jon Huntsman - 6.7%
6. (4) Sarah Palin - 5.3%
7. (10)Ron Paul - 2.2%
8. (-) Newt Gingrich - 2%
9. (8) Chris Christie - 1.8%
10. (9) Rudy Guiliani - 1.7%

Rising: Romney, Bachmann, Perry
Falling: Pawlenty, Huntsman, Cain

We've had the first big debate, a couple more candidates have officially announced, and a couple more are still flirting with the idea. Of those officially in, Romney and Bachmann are making July a two-person race. Cain and Santorum aren't in the top ten. You'd never know from the media that Gary Johnson and Thad McCotter are also running for president.

Perry, Palin, Christie and Guiliani still are not in the race, and most of them likely won't ever be, but they still poll better than half the field. Huntsman's seen as too moderate by Republicans and too reasonable by Democrats to get the nomination. My guess is Pawlenty can't wait for the next debate to hit Romney double-hard with anything he can think of in order to erase the memory of him backing down in the last debate.