The Inevitable President Hillary, and Other 2016 Speculations

I can't say I learned anything new from Hillary Clinton's interview with Diane Sawyer. Hillary said she hasn't made up her mind if she's running for President in 2016. This, of course, is a lie, but it's a lie we dance around every mid-term. 2006, 2010, 2014 are the years for midterm swings in Congress, but they are also the years for people who have every intention of running for President to issue denials that they've made up their mind.

The remark that's received the most publicity is the one about her and Bill being "dead broke" when she left the White House. Yeah, right. Somehow they managed to make millions back. Even Chelsea made $600,000 from NBC for filing three reports. This is actually one good reason why a Republican needs to win in 2016. Do you value the press? Do you want the media to hold truth to power? They tend to be at their best when a Republican's in office. I predict Years 9-12 of a Democratic Oval Office will further erode the credibility of the Fourth Estate.

Now I actually think Hillary would have been a better President than Obama. She's better at building relationships. We needed him for the history, to help us get over the hump and actually have an African-American as President 150 years after Lincoln. We also needed to not have a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton daisy chain. Now that Obama's been in for two terms, Americans seem to be a little more ready to stomach another President Clinton. It's her election to lose. Of course, so was 2008's.

So maybe Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren will make it interesting on the Democratic side. As for the Republicans, they need their own Obama, that transformative figure that can inspire. Mitt Romney did not inspire. Never mind he was right about Russia and Iraq and several other things. You have to win first.

So who are the 2016 possibilities? Well, let's see.

NO WAY THEY RUN AGAIN

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul. Yes, Mitt won't run again. But I have no doubt he wants to help pick the next nominee.

THEY MIGHT RUN AGAIN

Rick Perry - The Texas governor is wearing glasses now to make himself appear smarter and more stately. Of the ones who ran in 2012, I see him as the most likely to give it another shot. I think this would be a big mistake, but never underestimate Texas.

Rick Santorum - Still a decent chance the social conservative gives it another try. It'd be a huge waste of money if he did.

Mike Huckabee - The host of his own weekly radio and weekend Fox News show will send out feelers to see if he would have a chance. His folksy approach is palatable, but I see 2016 as a year where Republicans do not want an also-ran.

THE "ESTABLISHMENT" NAMES

Jeb Bush - If Americans can stomach the thought of a second Clinton presidency, can they stomach the thought of a third Bush? Jeb's always been seen as the smarter brother, the one that should have run in 2000 had Florida played along. There's also no doubt in my mind he would have been a better president than W.  But Jeb's time has passed.

Chris Christie - The press loved the big guy for a while. But without Mitt Romney to kick around, MSNBC decided to become the Anti-Chris Christie channel. Plus many conservatives don't trust him.

THE LIKELY CANDIDATES

Ted Cruz - The divisive Tea Party hero would certainly be able to draw up passion from his base. He'd face opposition in places like New Hampshire and Michigan who view him as too extreme to win a general election.

Rand Paul - Rand will be an interesting one to watch. He can get some of the Libertarian cred thanks to his dad, some Tea Party cred, and he's shown the ability to breathe fire one day, then play nice with others the next. He'll be vulnerable in some primaries for not being as hawkish as other candidates, but in other primaries, that'll be one of his biggest strengths.

Marco Rubio - The Florida senator would greatly benefit if his friend Jeb would decide not to run and just support him instead. Like Cruz, he'd make history as the first Latino president. He's facing early opposition from the anti-amnesty crowd.

Scott Walker - The Wisconsin governor could be a real factor in 2016. He won a recall challenge handily in 2012 after slashing the state budget, and that emboldened his GOP supporters. He's shrunk the deficit there, so fiscal conservatives love him.

Bobby Jindal - Since his disastrous response to the State of the Union, he's kept his head down in Louisiana, just strengthening his resume. His handling of Hurrican Gustav was far better than how his predecessor had handled Hurricane Katrina. His approval ratings dipped after 2012 but have been coming up this year.

Paul Ryan - He's a national name now thanks to his Vice-Presidential candidacy, though I think many voters will remember he did nothing to move the needle in 2012 and how he let Joe Biden steal his lunch money during the debate.

John Kasich - I'll throw his name out there, because he seems to have built a very solid resume as governor. Kasich served in the US House from 1983-2001. He ran for President in 2000 but did badly and dropped out early to support Bush. He had his own Fox News Channel show for a while, and he worked at Lehman Brothers when the stock market crashed. His political rehabilitation as Ohio governor saw that state become one of the first to show true growth post-crash.

WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN?

There are a few women who could get into this election cycle.

Susanna Martinez - Hey, a twofer! A Latina woman. The New Mexico governor enjoys popularity in her state and has strengthened her bonafides in border security. She could get hit in primaries for New Mexico's low job growth, but between now and 2016 she has time to get that improved.

Nikki Haley - She's South Carolina's first female governor, and she'd be the first Indian American president, should she win. She's young; she's turn 44 in 2016. She attends Methodist and Sikh services, so she has quite a multicultural thing going on.

Mary Fallin - The Oklahoma governor could be tempted to throw her hat into the ring. She's popular at home, she (like Martinez and Haley) should be enjoying her second term as governor when decision-time comes around. She has some personal issues that some could make an issue of, but after Newt ran, that just dwarfs anything any other candidate will ever have to cop to.

Sarah Palin - She won't run, but she'll flirt with the idea through 2016 as she tries to sell a book or score another reality show.

Fox News South Carolina GOP Debate

Yep, another one.

Questioners are Bret Baier, Gerald Seib, Kelly Evans and Juan Williams.

First question to NEWT GINGRICH, and Bret Baier didn't let him off lightly. Newt justifies his attacks on Mitt Romney so soon after he said the Republicans should stay positive and not savage each other. Of course, Newt said this when he was in first, but now that he's not, it's Earth-scorching time. Baier pushes Newt on it, and Newt keeps trying to say he's not attacking capitalism, it's just that Bain was evil. Reagan.

MITT ROMNEY responds, defends his record, and ends with how he'll defeat Barack Obama, which gets loud cheers from the audience. Baier moves on.

RICK PERRY is asked to defend his comment on "vulture capitalism." He says he visited a steel mill that Bain picked over and people lost jobs. Hey, I released my tax records. Mitt, you need to release yours. I think that's fair. As Republicans we cannot "fawr" our candidate in September. We need to know the answers now. Anyway, repeal Dodd-Frank; regulations are strangling us.

ROMNEY - We invested in that steel mill for 7-8 years.. China's dumping of cheap steel into our economy caused 40 mills to be closed. I will crack down on trade cheaters. BTW, we opened a new steel mill with new technologies on cheaters. I agree with him on regulations.

Next is Gerald Seib, who looks like the kind of guy found guilty of murder at the end of a CSI: Miami episode. He points out one instance where Bain made millions off a company that went bankrupt.

ROMNEY - That company was still open when I was at Bain. They bought another paper company down the road and consolidated. Every time we invest it, we try to grow the company, create jobs. You look at Staples and other companies, my record's pretty darn good. The prez has no job plan. I have a jobs plan and I'm not even president...yet.

Next is Kelly Evans, a hot brunette Wall Street Journal reporter. Asks Ron Paul about negative campaigning.

RON PAUL - If you're exposing a voting record, it's quite proper. I did one on Santorum where I couldn't get everything in that I wanted. He was for NCLB, Sarb-Ox, prescription drug benefits, etc.

RICK SANTORUM - He's getting some of his quotes from CREW, a left-wing George Soros organization. I'd repeal No Child Left Behind now.

Juan Williams asks Santorum about personal attacks.

SANTORUM - I've run a strong positive campaign. Romney's Super-PAC put out an ad saying I support felons voting. I would ask Romney right here, does he support felons who've served their time, fulfill their sentences get to be able to vote?

ROMNEY - First of all I can't tell Super-PACs what--

SANTORUM - Just answer the question.

ROMNEY - I'll get there. I would hope Super-PACs who have anything inaccurate would remove those or correct those. As for felons voting, it says you did that?

SANTORUM - Just answer. I voted to restore voting rights to felons who've repaid their debt to society. This is MLK Day. I was supporting that becuz of the disproportionate amount of African-Americans who go to jail and lose their rights.

ROMNEY - I don't believe violent criminals should ever regain their vote.

SANTORUM - Interesting. In Massachusetts, the law was that not only could violent criminals could vote while on parole let alone after they served their time. If you're going to have someone criticize me for supporting that, why didn't you change that in Mass?

ROMNEY - I had an 85% Democratic legislature. I could nto get many changes that I wanted to, and I did not send anyone to criticize you, I have no control over Super-PACs. I've had some outrageous, inaccurate accusations made against me by Super-PACs...

SANTORUM - I want to keep talking. Your Super-PAC was inaccurate in attacking me and if I had a Super-PAC doing that, I'd say stop it!

PERRY - Here's a great example of the insiders up here having a conversation. These should be state decisions.

ROMNEY - I agree; this should be at a state level. I agree with Ron Paul about the mistakes Santorum's made in his voting. He voted against right-to-work becuz he said his state was against it. I was in a state that wanted felons to be able to vote. Same thing.

Commercials.

Baier asks Romney about previous Huntsman quotes, asks Twitter question about how can they trust Romney to not change his positions again.

ROMNEY - I get asked this, and it's usually on my position on abortion. When I saw those embryos that would destroyed, I wrote an op-ed saying I was pro-life and I served as a pro-life governor. I've always been against gay marriage but I am for equal rights. I believe Obama is turning us into a European socialist state, I want to restore America. I believe in this country, I will fight for its values.

Juan asks Perry about SC's new law on voter registration. Are you suggesting that on MLK Day, the fed has no business investigating election laws in a state where minorities were once not allowed to vote?

PERRY - I'm saying the state of Texas is under assault from the fed govt, and SC is at war with this fed govt. At war! This administration is "at war!" with churches. This admin is out of control.

Bret asks about national debt and extending unemployment benefits.

SANTORUM - I don't support extending benefits to 99 weeks. When you're that far away from a job, you lose skills. I believe, like welfare reform, we send it back to the states, give them flexibility to implement their programs. We're not doing people any favors by keeping them on unemployment for long periods of time.

((When I was laid off in 2004, they explained to me unemployment lasted 26 weeks, but I believe that was state unemployment; I never got federal unemployment that I know of. There must've been significant changes in the law since.))

GINGRICH - All unemployment compensation should be tied to job-training. The help we should give should be connected to a business run. 99 weeks is an Associate degree. It tells you everything about the difference between Obama and the five of us. We actually think work is good. We think maximizing dependency is terrible for this country.

Kelly asks about some European downgrades.

ROMNEY - We want to keep our financial insitutions running, but we've learned some lessons. We can't give the prez a blank check choosing and picking which friends or which industries he wants to save. It's time for us to recognize that the free enterprise system works. The best way to get the US economy going to push govt out of it. Our tax rates are too high, our regulations are too burdensome, we have an energy policy that doesn't take advantage of our resources. This prex has opened up no new markets. That's the answer, not bailouts.

Gerald asks Paul about defense spending cuts that would cost SC military jobs.

PAUL - Your question suggests you're very confused about my position. I want to cut money. I want to close bases overseas, maybe have more bases here. The military is behind me more than the others. I get twice as much money from active-duty military than the other four combined.

You call for pulling military spending to 2006 levels, that would cut jobs.

PAUL - You still don't understand. There's a difference between military spending and defense spending. Building a military base in Baghdad bigger than the Vatican. You call that defense spending; I call that waste. We're supposed to be conservative. Spend less money!

Bret asks what is the highest federal income tax any American should have to pay.

PERRY - 20% flat tax. Keep it simple. ((Perry likes simple.))

SANTORUM - My highest would be 28%, same level as Reagan when he cut taxes. ((And raised them one year later.))

ROMNEY - I'd like to get it down to 25%. Right now it's 35%, paying more than 25% I'm against.

GINGRICH - I'd like to see flat tax of 15%.

PAUL - We should have the lowest tax and up until 1913 it was 0%. What's wrong with that? What our seniors are getting hit with is the inflation tax; let's see that zero.

Kelly asks again about tax records, since Romney never answered the question earlier.

ROMNEY - I looked at what's been done in past campaigns; the tradition has been to release them around April, tax-time. I'll keep my options open.

So you'll release them around April?

ROMNEY - That's probably what I'll do. ((Some murmurs from the audience on that one.))

Juan points out Romney's father was born in Mexico. ((Some boos just at the mention of Mexico.)) Aren't you alienating Latinos with your hardline stance on immigration and being against the Dream Act?

ROMNEY - Latinos like all people look at us an opportunity nation. This prez looks around and says "It could be worse." I can't believe saying that. The American people say it's gotta be better. As for immigration, I don't believe special privileges should be given to those who come illegally. We have to follow the law. I love legal immigrants.

Juan points out unemployment's 20% for blacks.

SANTORUM - A 2009 study showed 3 things can be done to avoid poverty: work, graduate high school, and get married before you have children. ((Applause from audience.)) It's a huge opportunity for us, but what is Obama doing? He has a policy targetted at at-risk youth, regulating that marriage can no longer promote marriage to young girls, they can no longer teach abstinence. This admin is deliberately telling organizations to not tell girls what good choices are.

Juan points out blacks, jailed 4 times more than white, are usually arrested for drug charges.

PAUL - There is a disparity. With blacks, they're arrested disproportionately, they're tried and convicted disproportionately, they suffer the consequence of the death penalty disproportionately. Rich white people don't get the death penalty very often. ((Would've loved to see Perry's face right then. He loves the death penalty.)) The drug war unfairly hits the minority. MLK would agree with me on the drug war and foreign wars. ((Faint applause.))

Juan asks Gingrich about his quote on how blacks should demand job not food stamps, poor people's work ethic, and his quote about having kids be janitors. Can't you see how this is insulting?

GINGRICH - No, I don't see that. ((Applause.)) My daughter's first job was a janitor. She liked working and getting paid. I've had fifty people write me about their first jobs at 11,12,13. What I tried to say, Joe Klein pointed this out to me, union janitors in NYC are paid an absurd amount of money. You could hire thirty kids for the cost of one janitor. Only the elites despise earning money. ((Applause.))

My question's on work ethic. Are your comments not intended to belittle the poor and racial minorities? ((Boos.)) You called Obama the food-stamp president. It sounds like you're intentially belittling people. ((More boos. Boos for the black guy asking about racism on MLK Day.))

GINGRICH - More people have gone on food stamps under Obama than any prez in history. I know the politically correct don't like facts that are uncomfortable. Obama hasn't done anything that's really helped the poor. ((Wild, rousing applause. People clinking beer mugs, a guy strumming his upright bass in the corner, square-dancing in the mezzanine, etc.))

Bret asks Paul about foreign policy. You said you were against the operation that killed OBL. You believe international law should have stopped from killing the man who committed the most heinous attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, the demon from hell who rose up with his bony hand and crushed the heart of America, the man who burned a flag while urinating on a Justin Bieber picture?

PAUL - No I didn't say that. After 9/11 I voted for the authority to go after him. My frustration was we didn't go after him. We used it as an excuse for nation building.

My question's on international law.

PAUL - We communicated with Pakistan on giving us KSM, and they handed him over. But when you don't respect the sovereignty of other nations, we keep bombing these countries trying to get our enemies, we reduce them to civil war, they're getting money from us to rebuild. It's a deeply flawed policy. When they waited ten years, I don't see why they couldn't have done it the way they did KSM. Say a Chinese dissident came here, we wouldn't endorse "Well, they can come over and bomb us trying to get him..." We wouldn't expect him. There are proper procedures. We keep digging bigger holes for ourselves. Iraq's getting worse, we're still in Afghanistan...

I understand. They found there were plans for further attacks. On this topic, GOP candidate Ron Paul would be far to the left of Barack Obama on hunting down terrorists. <>

PAUL - We captured Saddam Hussein. His country hung him, he had a trial. We gave Adolph Eichmann a trial. Why can't we question them first, get information?

Bret asks Gingrich about would he kill OBL even if it meant the end of relations of Pakistan.

GINGRICH - OBL plotted to bomb the USS Cole and killed 3100 Americans on 9/11. He was not a Chinese dissident. His analogy is "utterly" irrational. When you give a country billions and you learn they've been hiding the biggest terrorist in the world, you go in and bomb him. Now let's talk about Andrew Jackson. he had a clear-cut idea about America's enemies: kill them. ((Holy crap, did he just bring up the founder of the Democratic Party and notorious racist Indian-killer Andrew Jackson as a standard for 2012 foreign policy?))

PAUL - We ought to consider a Golden Rule in foreign policy. Don't do to other nations what we wouldn't want them to do to us. ((Ongoing boos.)) This idea that we can't debate foreign policy, we just need to start another war. These people can't wait to start another war. We should quit the ones we're in! ((Applause.))

Bret asks Romney about negotiating with the Taliban.

ROMNEY - Of course not. Newt's right. Take out our enemies whereever they are. These people declared war on us. They killed Americans. We go where they are and kill them. OBL recived the right course of action, a bullet to the head. The Taliban is killing Americans. Obama announced the date of our withdrawal. He announced the date he wants to pull out altogether and now he wants to negotiate? We're under attack. The right way is to have a military so strong that no one would think of testing it. We do not negotiate with the Taliban when they're killing American soliders. We need to streghten the Afghan military force.

Bret asks how Santorum would deal with Syria.

SANTORUM - Obama's been as bad as possible. He props up this dictator which endangers Israel. We need to rally the international community, remove Assad, I don't support us going in, but us supporting policy that would remove him.

Bret brings up Turkey. Do they still belong in NATO?

PERRY - Turkey's ruled by Islamic terrorists, it's time to cut off all foreign aid to them. Do they have America's best interest? They were an ally in the 1970's. We need a prez who will stand up to Turkey and Syria and Iran and let them know we need to be dealt with. I served my country in the Air Force. When our Sec of Defense call what those Marines did ((urinating on the corpses)) "utterly despicable", I'll tell you what's despicable, those people who cut Danny Pearl's head off!

PAUL - I too served in the military from 62 to 68. i was in the Afghan/Pakistan region. Let me tell you something, the Taliban were our allies when they were fighting Russia. The Taliban is against foreigners. It's al-Qaeda who wants to come here and kill us, let's not confuse the two.\

Kelly asks Romney about the NDAA. Would he have signed it as written?

ROMNEY - Yes I would have. ((Boos.)) If you join a group that wants to kill Americans, that's treason. I disagree with the prez on a lot but I have faith he will not abuse this power. I would not abuse that power. You have elect someone with the values and character to not abuse it. Our military is shrinking. We're not giving our veterans the benfits they deserve.

SANTORUM - Whines about time, invokes habeas corpus, says the NDAA should not have passed. You should have the right to go to court.

PAUL - We're going in the wrong direction of our liberties. The Patriot Act wiped out the 4th Amendment. Now we have a policy of pre-emptive war where we don't have to declare war, this NDAA is major. It says an American citizen can be held indefinitely by the military. Don't give up on our American judicial system so easily, I beg of you.

PERRY - We need to cut the tax rate down where people feel comfortable investing. That's why I support 20% flat tax. Does his Timothy Geitner line again. Pull back regulations! They're strangling jobs. Let's pass a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Kelly says so you wouldn't do anything to help tyhe housing market?

PERRY - I think I just said two things that are pretty powerful.

Gerald asks Romney about Social Security.

ROMNEY - I won't touch for anyone 55 or older. I'm sure the Democrats will start showing ads of Republicans throwing old people off of cliffs ((laughs)) but don't forget Obama cut $500 billion from Medicare to pay for Obamacare. I'd lower the rate of inflation growth for higher-income recipients. I'd raise the retirement age a year or two. Repeal Obamacare.

Gerald asks Gingrich about his SS plan, which includes privatization. But you said the givt would pay the difference if the private account doesn't pay what it would have if stayed in SS. Is that really a free market solution?

GINGRICH - I'm a historian. Anyway, in Galveston TX and Chile, they tried this and it works. These are historic facts. it gets the govt out of telling you when to retire. It makes every American an investor.

SANTORUM - We need to keep American jobs, not ship them off like the mills here were. The foreign competition is cheaper to do business, but it's because of govt taxes and regulation. Make the little guys pay the same as the big guys. I want to make a point about mitt's plan. it's not bold, and Newt's is not responsible. We're running a deficit in SS. Our debt would go up by hundreds of billions. We'd have to borrow more from China. First balance the budget. Privatize SS now is fiscal insanity, and Romney's not bold.

GINGRICH - The plan on my website shows we'll deal with 185 bureaucracies that deal with low-income Americans, consolidate and send back to the states. It's a sound plan, and I say that as someone who balanced the budget four years in a row.

SANTORUM - We can't do that now due to the deficit.

GINGRICH - As someone who baolanced the budget four times, I'm confident I can make it work w/o balancing the budget.

ROMNEY - Rick is right. It's going to be tough to get our budget balanced and our deficit cut. We should allow people to have a voluntary savings account.

Juan asks Romney about his 2nd amendment record. Signed assault-weapons ban in Massachusetts, increased fees on gun owners 400%.

ROMNEY - In my state we had legislation drafted by pro-gun and anti-gun lobbies. The pro-gun folks liked some of the pieces in it and supported. We found common ground. I believe in gun rights.

Have you gone hunting since you talked about hunting "varmints."

ROMNEY - I've been elk hunting and pheasant hunting. I'm not the serious hunter Perry is.

Perry swells with pride.

Juan asks Santorum about his anti-gun votes.

SANTORUM - Sometimes you have to pass something so they won't pass soemthing much worse. I have an A+ record with the NRA. Contrast that with Paul, I protected gun manufacturers. We banned those lawsuits. Paul voted against that bill; he would have wiped out the 2nd Amendment.

PAUL - Hardly. You don't have national tort law, that should be at the state level. I'm trying to repeal gun bans. That's an overstretch.

SANTORUM - I need to respond. W/o a natl bill, people would have gone to Massachusetts or New York and sued the gun manufacturers out of existance.

PAUL - This is how our Constitution gets nibbled away. Tort law should be a state's issue.

Gerald asks Gingrich about his support of China's one-child law.

GINGRICH - It's "explicitly" a falsehood. It's an absurdity. It'd be nice if Romney would display leadership and call his former colleagues running his Super-PAC to take inaccuracies off the air.

ROMNEY - I said in our last debate that any Super-PAC, whether it's supporting me or supporting you, should take flasehoods off the air. Now I can't contact them directly because that would be against the law. Is that correct?

GINGRICH - Absolutely.

ROMNEY - Alright, so I can't do what you just asked me to do. ((Upper cut!)) I can say publicly I hope any Super-PAC that has falsehoods would remove them from the air. Now, Newt, you have a Super-PAC running an ad with the biggest hoax since Bigfoot. This ad is entirely false, this documentary describes events I had nothing to do with. To imply we have different standards is not quite right.

GINGRICH - I've called on them publicly to edit them. I would hope you'd call on yours to do the same.

ROMNEY - Look, we'd all like to get rid of Super-PACs to tell you the truth. Let people donate what they want to campaigns, let candidates be responsible for their own words. McCain-Feingold was a disaster. ((Applause. Except at the McCain household.)) We don't want this strange situation where we can't control what ads our supporters put up.

Kelly says border crossing is at a 40-year low.

PERRY - The reason it's at a 40-year low is becuz of this economy. I've spent 11 years dealing with this issue. Americans wants us to spend the money to secure the border.

GINGRICH - I'd get rid of No Child Left Behind. The correct answer is to "radically" reduce the Dept of Education and send it back to the states.

And that's it.

So how'd they do?

5. RICK PERRY - Wants to put a chip on his shoulder and go kick dirt on the shoes of Iran and Syria and Turkey. Wants South Carolina to secede so Texas can follow. Kept using phrases like "under assault" and "at war." Even more he said "taxes" and "regulation" about twenty times each. No reason for him to still be there.

4. MITT ROMNEY - There were times he had cool, confident answers. Other times he was knocked on his heels and tried to hedge his answers and leave himself wiggle room. He's the front-runner, he'll be the biggest target. But his tax-return answer was weak, and his support of the NDAA made my jaw drop. He's still alandslide front-runner, but if I were him, I'd start backing out of some of these debates. We've had a ton.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - He did really well in the room, but when you look at his answers, my goodness. Doubled down on making kids the janitors of their own schools, somehow made janitors sound like some overpaid elitist union job, and his outrage over the Super-PAC was muted by Romney's responses. And his Andrew Jackson line... staggering. And yet crowd reaction would suggest he won. Fox News seems to think it'll help Gingrich move up in the polls. I can only shake my head.

2. RICK SANTORUM - Showed toughness against Romney, against Gingrich, against Paul. Don't know why he thought saying that making the little guy pay as much as the big guys would be an applause line. I don't see why people who've supported him to this point would abandon him now.

1. RON PAUL - Sounds like the only guy who wants to reverse the course of our neverending military-industrial complex. The crowd booed him more than anyone else, and yet, what doesn't fly in South Carolina flies in other parts of the country. I don't agree with him on everything, but I really wish some of his attitudes would catch on with the other candidates.

Huckabee Forum 2

MIKE HUCKABEE
in
FORUM 2: SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY!!

Huckabee is on a stage with a live audience. They're in line to ask questions.

8:00 - Huck introduces Gov. Nikki Haley. She is rocking it in the black dress with knee-high boots.

8:02 - Mike Huckabee's intro is starting to lull me to sleep, but he wakes us up with an applause line about how the candidates are not allowed to attack each other. Ron Paul won't be here, but Jon Huntsman will. Innnteresting.

8:03 - Rep. Tim Scott has rehearsed lines to sing the praises of South Carolina's importance.

8:05 - First up is MITT ROMNEY. First question is about the housing market. "What will you do to protect Americans' rights to own their homes" and how will you restore the housing industry?

Some people ask what govt can do to help, but I want to stop govt from doing what hurts. I don't want to go back to those "years of yesteryear." Not going to return to the days of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae just handing out mortgages to people who couldn't possibly repay them. Interest only mortgages got us in real trouble. With 9.9% unemployment here in SC, we need to get this economy going, get people jobs.

Follow-up: Will you continue to keep mortgage interest as a tax deduction?

Yes.

8:08 - Question on separation of power. Seems like the Prez is assuming a lot of power that isn't really there.

The Prez has taken extra-Constitutional powers and is appointing his friends to positions of power, most egregious was the National Labor Relations Board, paying back organized union labor, put "union stooges" on the board. Obama came in with Dem house and Dem senate so he didn't feel he needed to reach across the aisle. He wants to jam through what he likes to do.

Commercials.
8:12 - Question: I'm a Ron Paul supporter. After RomneyCare and supporting TARP bailout, how can we believe you and Obama aren't two sides of the same coin?

Obama and I would take the country in two very different directions. He wants to weaken the military, cut a trillion dollars in spending. He wants to spend way more than we have. Like Ron Paul and others, I want to cut spending and balance the budget. Like Ron Paul, I want a free economy where govt gets out of the way.

8:14 - Question: I'm on Medicare. What will you do to keep doctors from opting out of Medicare so they'll continue to serve seniors and military families?

Obama and co. want to put in price controls and tell docs how much they can be reimbursed. It hasn't worked; we have the highest health-care costs in the world. I want to treat health-care like a market. Like Paul Ryan described, I'd reshape Medicare where individuals can choose traditional Medicare or private Medicare plans. The way to keep costs down is competition.

8:17 - Question: As a Christian, I am disturbed there are growing anti-Christian sentiments in this country. It seems like there are more restrictions against religion all the time. What will you do to protect freedom of religion?

I will stand up for the ability of all Americans to worship God how they choose. I don't believe in the secularization of America. People should be able to put up manger scenes at Christmastime, or menorrahs for Hannakuh, etc.

8:19 - Question: Can you convince me - (Mitt gives a 'heh' laugh here which makes her pause a fraction of a second) - as a true conservative why we should vote for you, a moderate Republican, against any of the other candidates? Will you flip-flop on any issues once elected, and will you break campaign promises like Obama has?

You have an opportunity to get to know me through my record. I think you'll find I served as a conservative governor. We balanced the budget every year, we cut taxes 19 times, I empowered our police to enforce immigration law, I implemented English immersion in our schools, I cut the spending in our budget my first year. Read my book No Apology. I love America.

----

8:23 - Next is JON HUNTSMAN. First question is what would you do in first 30 days that would have positive impact on people who vote for you.

Plugs that he and Huck last appeared on stage together with REO Speedwagon.

I would lead. There's a certain rhythm to politics. If you don't strike right away, you're never going to get it done. 1.) Tax reform 2.) Clean up the regulatory mess. 3.) Take steps toward energy independence. Within 30 days, we'd have a roadmap laid out.

8:25 - Three-part question. So many people out of work, will you continue to sanction people coming in, taking our high-tech jobs.

We need to fix our immigration problem. We need to secure the southern border. For those who go to our universities, I would incentivize them to stay, to grow our economy. We need to increase tourism. We need a leader who can reform the Dept of Homeland Security.

8:28 - You are pro-life but you place stipulations on rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother. If every life is of God, how can you place stipulations on these lives?

I'm clear on my pro-life philosophy. Points out his daughter he adopted from China, she was abandoned at two months, but he's glad her mother gave her life. I've studied it and I have those three stipulations and I hope that's good enough for you.

8:30 - The ultimate candidate could face $1 billion of dirty tricks. Do you anticipate an undercurrent of religious prejudice, and if so, how do you intend to defend your beliefs?

I intend to defend my faith, my family, my beliefs by being who I am. They'll come to know the family of the candidate. All you can do is be your best. The good people of this country will get to know you.

Commercials.

8:34 - We put a man on the moon, but now we can't put a man into space w/o hitching a ride with Russia. What would you do to save space program?

The space program inspires the next generation. I was 9 when man landed on the moon. There's the economic benefit. I will not subcontract our space program out to any other country. I will make sure we have an economy that can support a solid space program.

8:36 - Dept. of Education has grown exponentially, and yet no progress. Where do u stand on that Department.

Simple answer. So long to the Dept. of Education. I've had seven kids. We did public school, private school, homeschooling, international schooling. A one-size-fits-all approach to education won't cut it. We need to focus on early childhood development.

8:38 - Question on foreign aid. We spend millions rebuilding mosques in Syria, sewer system in Egypt, we have a trade deficit with China yet we gave them $7 million to fight air pollution. How would you strive to change this?

If our invested dollar doesn't have a return to the US by expanding our economy or creating jobs, I want nothing to do with it. My foreign policy is to get our house in order.

----

8:43 - Next is NEWT GINGRICH. First question is from a pregnant woman who was laid off. What is your plan to create jobs nationally and specifically in SC?

Nationally I worked with Reagan and we created 16 million jobs. I worked with Clitnon and we created 11 million new jobs. (Is he listening to himself?) I'd repeal Dodd-Frank which is killing jobs. We should develop offshore natural gas here in SC. We should take part in the royalties from the natural gas. Thru tax policy we need to rebuild infrastructure in SC.

8:45 - The Founding Fathers were opposed to a national bank.

I wrote a series of books on the founding fathers. I'd want to be more like them, which is why I'd want Bernake fired my first day in office. I'm against the Fed propping up the Euro.

8:47 - People in economy understand creative destruction. How do you defend attacking that?

I don't attack it. Gov. Romney... (boos) Okay, let me rephrase. Our candidate needs to be prepared to answer the tough questions before we nominate them.

8:49 - I voted for Obama in 2008. People in this country are sick of partisan gridlock. How can we make progress?

With Reagan we had to get a third of the Democrats. As Speaker, we had Bill Clinton as president. You look at DC today, you're not going to fix that mess with speeches. You need to work together.

Commercials!

8:53 - How do you address the class warfare rhetoric of the Obama administration?

Reagan, Reagan, Reagan, we created millions of jobs. Obama's created more food stamps. I don't believe in 99% and 1%. I believe in 100% working for more jobs.

8:55 - I'm a federal worker. How are you going to cut the federl budget without cutting federal jobs?

When we talk about federal workers, we're talking about border security, our military, etc. An intelligent conservative wants the right employees carrying out their duties in an efficient way. The EPA is committed to dictation not cooperation.

8:57 - My fed taxes increased last year and now my health-insurance premiums have increased. If elected, how soon will you reverse this?

We need a run a team campaign. We need more senate seats, more house seats. I'd ask on my first day for Congress to repeal ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, and Sarbanes-Oxley.

8:59 - If you could change anything about election laws, what would it be?

I'd get rid of all the Mickey Mouse laws, let individuals contribute as much as they want as long as it's reporting each night, get rid of SuperPacs, get rid of negativity. The candidates would be responsible.

----

9:02 - Next is RICK SANTORUM. Many of us are pro-life like you. What would you do to win over liberals to beat Obama in Novewmber?

I've been elected five times, drawing people from both sides to win. Folks trusted me, knowing what I was doing. We didn't have to agree on everything. I have a proven track record.

9:04 - My husband's been unemployed for four years. Our 401k is gone, the IRA is gone. We moved south becuz it's cheaper. What can you do for people in our position?

You chose a lovely state to move to, we vacation here. My economic plan is a bold plan, the WSJ called it the best. I believe we need to revive manufacturing, it's a robust sector that can grow. We need to compete with those other countries who are taking our manufacturing jobs.

9:07 - I bought 12 items from an outdoor shop. All of them were made in China. What will you do to correct the trade deficit?

We're selling sweater vests online. We're losing jobs becuz our govt is creating the imbalance with high taxes and regulations. I support legislation that require Congress to approve these regulations. Bush and Clinton tended to add 60 regulations a year, Obama's added 150 a year. We need regulation reform.

9:09 - How can you call yourself a true conservative when you've voted to raise the debt ceiling six times?

It was five, according to Ron Paul. When in Congress, you can work toward lowering spending, which I have. I authored the welfare reform bill, I've led on Social Security reform, I've led on Medicare reform. When dealing with debt ceiling you have to address entitlements.

9:11 - I'm concerned about the unemployed over 50. What say you to those who don't have resources?

Folks with experience can take it and use it to build their own business. This admin has crushing tax burden and regulation burden. Republicans are the party of small business. Obama loves big business. Then he can send in his regulators and embed them in the corporation and create a symbiotic relationship.

9:13 - You're pro-life, but you support the death penalty, and you support abortion in cases of rape and incest. How can you justify taking an adult life?

I don't have an exception for rape and incest. With death penalty, we're not talking about an innocent human life. The court rules you cannot be executed for rape, but the same court upheld that a child conceived from that rape could be killed. That is a country that has its morals upsode-down.

----

9:18 - Next is RICK PERRY. Having lived in NYC, I've seen people taken extreme advantage of welfare and disability. What would you do to reform welfare?

At fed level, we need HHS department that audits out fraud. In our state we saved $5 billion by combining some agencies but also by appointing an inspector general.

9:20 - As a businessman, I need to factor in tax code to any business decision I make. How will you simplify the tax code.

You'll love my plan. 20% flat tax. Steve Forbes and Club for Growth love it. It's the best plan. We get rid of capital gains, keep deductions for mortgage, charity, put it on a postcard and we'll reshape the IRS as we know it. Even Timothy Geitner could get his taxes in on time.

9:22 - When considering a vice-president, would you want someone who just makes appearances like Joe Biden, or someone integral in decision-making like Dick Cheney?

Mike, what do you have going on next year? (Laughs.) "Hosting this show." He was my neighbor so I know he can compete. My VP would be someone who shares my philosophy, you want someone who's a partner. Needs to be someone who shares your passion for this country, for small business, for defense.

9:24 - What executive action would you take with the out-of-control withe the NLRB?

Get rid of it, make it part of Dept. of Labor. Each of our states are under assault by this administration. They're actually at war with SC. Their justice dept wants to take on your sovereign right to have immigration laws in place, or your voter ID laws.

Commercials!

9:27 - Question: cuz Fed govt spends $4 billion a day more than it takes in, what's your plan to cut budget?

It's on my website. It outlines how we'll balance the budget by 2010. Ask yourself, Are you better off today than you were $4 trillion ago? The CEO of Coca-Cola said it's easier to do business in communist China than in the US. Cut the taxes and regulations!

9:30 - Will you eliminate the EPA and if not, why?

No state has been more under assault by the EPA than Texas. They are out fo control, spewing out regulations. I trust the state's legislatures to make rulings on their environment than some DC bureaucrat who's never set foot in this state.

9:32 - Will any manufacturing jobs that went to China come back?

They'll come back. We overtaxed and overregulated those jobs out of here. We need to not tax overseas profits that Americans try to bring back into the country. We need to give entrepreneurs incentive to innovate in this country, not drive them out. Drop corporate income tax.

Commercials!

Closing remarks

Mitt Romney - This election is about more than removing a president; it's about the soul of America. We should be an opportunity nation. Take risks, pursue dreams. Obama wants to make us an entitlement nation. He wants to make govt bigger, I want to make it smaller. I want to cut, cap and balance our budget. I want to restore America to its principles.

Rick Perry - I was a pilor in the US Air Force, but we need to bring change, real change, to DC. An outsider who has the background to bring change. It's my purpose to serve this country. We need a president with a tax plan, we need to radically change Congress to be part-time.

Rick Santorum - I want to return the power to the people of America. This is the most important election of our lifetime. We need a prez who recognizes and shares the values of America. Be bold, be strong in your vote. SC voted for Reagan in 1980. Believe! We can restore this country to greatness.

Jon Huntsman - I want people to remember I will always put my country first. I instill that in my two boys in the Navy. I want to bring term limits to Congress and get rid of them turning right around and becoming lobbyists. I want to get our troops out of Afghanistan and I want to rein in those banks that are too big to fail.

Newt Gingrich - If Obama wins reelection, he will be so radical, having been vindicated, that he will bring down this country. I'm going to make sure I mention Reagan more than anyone else. I created millions of jobs as Speaker. We need a conservative who can win the debates against Obama.

Commercials!

Huckabee asks audience members what they thought about the answers they had. First audience member he asked was the Ron Paul supporter who dissed Romney's answer. Of course.

Next audience member was a Santorum questioner. "My husband's 60, so I don't see how bringing back manufacturing jobs is going to help him."

Next was a Gingrich questioner. "I was disappointed he still wants to keep the Fed." Great that he wants to get rid of Bernanke. We see under Obama how we shouldn't let one person make so many appointments.

Next was a Perry questioner. "I liked his enthusiasm." But he felt he didn't get anything specific on what sectors of the economy would grow.

Next was Huntsman questioner, on the space program. Liked his line about not subcontracting out the space program, but we need something quickly.

Okay, so no audience member was satisfied with any candidate on any question. Interesting. What is Huck doing? Now he asks Rep. Scott if it helped him decide which candidate he wanted to support.

What intrigued me most about this is that these are Republican voters, but they are real middle-class people who are hurting and many of them were like "Don't take away my safety. What will you do for me in government?"

In the room, my hunch is Santorum fared best and Gingrich fared worst. I think Huntsman opened some eyes on South Carolina voters who didn't really know him. Perry's like a puppy-dog. Happy to be there, wagging his tail, not going to be president. Romney stuck to his stump speech talking points.

ABC New Hampshire Debate

7:00 - "The stakes couldn't be higher." Sure they could. You could say the two that do the worst will be thrown into an alligator pit. Them's higher stakes.

7:02 - Oh dear. Diane Sawyer is using that same patronizing tone explaining the rules she used in the last debate. Was she completely shielded from all criticism last time?

7:03 - Romney says Obama taking credit for job creation is like the rooster taking credit for the sun rise.

7:04 - Santorum says we need a leader and says no one has more experience in dealing with Iraq than he does. Of our enemies, "if they cross us, they should fear us." Santorum says we need a Commander-in-Chief, not a manager. The CiC is not a CEO. [Quick trivia note: Santorum was a lawyer until he was first elected to Congress at age 32.]

7:05 - Romney wipes out Santorum by trying to marginalize him as a manager.

7:06 - George Stephanopoulos quotes some of negative things about Bain Capital to Newt Gingrich. Newt dances around the answer, promotes the New York Times' acrticle that profiled a company that still failed under Bain. Newt says "the New York Times" four times. I had no idea he was such a fan.

7:07 - Mitt says he can understand why the NYT would demonize capitalism but is surprised "some people on this stage" would do the same thing. This is a free enterprise system.

7:09 - Jon Huntsman: "Scrutinize our records. Especially look at what the governors did."

7:11 - There's Huntsman, Paul and Romney on the left side of the stage, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry on the right. If the right side of the stage all dropped out, I'd be happy. Kind of annoyed that Buddy Roemer isn't allowed to be here but Perry is, as Roemer was actually ahead of Perry in a couple NH polls.

7:12 - George asks Paul about a quote where he called Santorum corrupt. Paul says he was quoting from a survey that found Santorum to be one of the most corrupt in DC due to how much money he took from lobbyists. Ooooh. Quotes the different big-government moves Rick made in the Senate, doubling the size of the Dept. of Education, and after he left office, he became a highly-paid, high-powered lobbyist.

7:14 - Santorum: "The group that called me corrupt was CREW, and if you haven't been sued by CREW, you're not a conservative, and you should know better than to cite George Soros-backed organizations. I'm not a libertarian; I do believe in some government. You put your own earmarks in bills." Rick's fighting back against Ron's charges quite effectively.

7:16 - Paul: "I vote against big spending. You vote for big spending, you're a big-government spender, not a conservative. Someone has to point out your record."

7:17 - Santorum: You're wrong about my record.

7:18 - Perry: This is why I got in this race. I am the only one, cept maybe Huntsman, who is an outsider of the culture of DC. Calls Paul a hypocrite for putting earmarks in spending bills and then voting on the bills.

7:19 - Paul: "I call it being a Constitutionalist. You designate every penny. Congress has more responsibility. Back to Santorum, he voted to raise the debt ceiling five times. What's your excuse?"

7:20 - Santorum: "I worked on welfare reform, tried to reform Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare."

Santorum and Paul are saying the opposite things about Rick's record. What is the truth?

7:21 - Huntsman: Being CiC is more than this political insider gobblety-gook we just heard. It's about being a leader. We need leadership that can be trusted. The American people don't trust their leaders. Everybody knows Congress needs term limits.

7:22 - Diane Sawyer asks Romney to respond to Huntsman's claim he'd speak best for the US. Romney: "Well, he'd be better than Obama, let's put it that way."

The occasional compliment to your opponent goes a long way with many voters.

7:25 - Josh McElveen points out Perry and Paul have military experience, asks Perry if military experience helps with being CiC. The prez shrinking the Dept of Defense will put Americans in danger.

7:27 - Gingrich points out his dad was in the military, he feels for veterans. I have a pretty good sense of what veteran families need.

7:28 - Paul: "People who get 3,4,5 deferrments have no right to send our kids to war. At least I went when I was called up. If you add up all the contractors and soldiers, etc., we've lost 8500 Americans in these two wars. Rick keeps bringing up "libertarian" but I am talking about the Constitution. It bothers me when we keep sending kids off to war, especially when many of these leaders got out of it when it would have been their time.

7:30 - Newt: "Ron has a long history of saying things that are inaccurate and false. I never asked for a deferrment. I personally resent the slander. I was married with a child at the time."

7:31 - Paul: "When I was drafted, I had a wife and two kids, and I went." (Applause.) George then asks him about the racist newsletter. "You're asking about something 20 years ago that I didn't write, it's a distraction. Let's talk about my work in race relations." Rattles of several stats about racial inequality, especially in selective law enforcement.

Commercials!

7:38 - George asks Romney if he thinks states have the right to ban contraception. Romney says no state wants to, and if he were governor, he'd veto it. George gets testy with Mitt about his answer, which prompts the crowd to jeer George. Mitt gets a laugh when he says "Leave it alone, contraception's working just fine." Paul then plugs the 4th Amendment for privacy rights.

7:40 - Santorum agrees with Mitt that Roe v. Wade should be overturned.

Diane Sawyer then takes forever to plug a Yahoo! question, aaking what your solution is for gay couples if they're against gay marriage. Newt talks about hospital visitation rights but says it's a huge jump to change the definition of the sacrament of marriage.

7:42 - Huntsman says civil unions are fair, that he's a traditionalist with marriage, but he believes in reciprical benefits rights.

7:43 - Josh asks Santorum about gay adoption. Santorum says it's a states-rights issue, but believes marriage is a federal issue, but will not seek any federal law about adoption. "What about those 1800 couples who are already married?" Santorum wants a Constitutional Amendment to define marriage, and therefore the Constitution would say they aren't married.

7:48 - Romney's for state-level benefits to same-sex couples but still wants the definition of marriage to be between a man and a woman.

7:49 - Newt points out the media bias and says how come we're never asked about the bias and bigotry against the Catholic Church? (Applause.)

7:50 - Mitt agrees with what Newt just said.

7:51 - George asks Paul about a possible 3rd-party run. Paul says he doesn't like absolutes, but he has no plans to run as 3rd party candidate.

7:52 - Perry brings up Obama's "war on religion."

7:53 - Huntsman rattles off all of the successes of the US military, and therefore for Afghanistan, it's time to bring our troops home. Mitt waffles on the topic. Huntsman comes back strongly, says the president makes the decision.

7:55 - Newt says we're asking the wrong questions, talks about Pakistan, Libya, we're underestimating all the problems. We need a "fundamentally" new strategy but it's not primarily a military problem.

7:56 - Santorum: "We need a strong president, and Obama's made the wrong decision at every turn, on Iran, on Libya, on Syria" etc. Calls out Huntsman for wanting to leave Afghanistan. Huntsman: "How long do you want to wait?" Santorum: "As long as it takes."

7:58 - Perry: "I would send troops back to Iraq." Says our withdrawal from Iraq as kowtowing to Obama's leftist liberal base. Every soldier that lost their life did so for nothing becuz of this president. Iran's moving in literally at the speed of light.

7:59 - Mitt counters with a more intelligent take on Iraq. Paul says he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon but we vote for a president, not a king. Congress has to declare war, but we went into Afghanistan and Iraq, and they want to go to Syria and can't wait to bomb Iran. Our policy may be well-intended but it has bad consequences.

8:00 - Santorum gives some neocon argument.

Commercials!

8:08 - Romney's asked about roads and bridges, Mitt spins it to a private-sector vs. public-sector argument, praises the entrepreneurial spirit of the American people. Says Obama wants to turn us into a European-style welfare state.

8:09 - Newt says we can't compete with China if we have poor infrastructure. I would have an energy plan that frees us from Iran and Venezuela. If you don't have a systematic infrastructure program, you can't compete.

8:11 - Huntsman says governors know how to pay the bills. He'd strip all loopholes and deductions from tax codes to the tune of $1 trillion.

8:13 - Santorum says he'd keep five deductions - health care, housing, pensions, children and charities. The other side is I'd cut corporate taxes in half, but I'd shrink manufacturing taxes to zero.

8:16 - George asks Mitt "Why not go to zero?" Mitt says of course we need taxes, but the spending keeps going up, we need to shrink government, lower taxes.

Diane Sawyer's starting to remind me of Jessica Lange's character on American Horror Story.

8:19 - Paul goes on his stump rant about the Federal Reserve, ecomonic bubbles, cutting spending, "you can't keep bailing out the debt." There's no plan.

8:20 - Perry: There is a plan! Create jobs! Allow our energy resources to be used, lower regulations.

8:22 - Huntsman brings up how Utah was #1 in job growth while Massachusetts was 47th for the 2nd time tonight. I sense a slight impatience from the audience. Jon boasts again he will get rid of all loopholes and tax deductions

8:24 - George asks Romney where he agrees with Huntsman, and Mitt respectfully declines it and asks himself a question of his own and proceeds to answer it.

8:26 - Newt says he's sure Obama's sincere about his desire to change us to a radical socialist European economy. (Laughs.)

8:28 - Santorum says Republicans should shrink from a phrase Mitt Romney used: "middle class." There are no classes in America. They may be middle income people. It's Obama's job to divide, separate.

8:30 - Romney: "My plan is broader than tax policy." Goes on about America's goods, trading. "We have to do something about regulations."

8:32 - Huntsman said it's nonsense to think you can slap a tariff on China your 1st day in office, as Mitt would do.

8:33 - Mitt: "Jon, you spent the last two years implementing the policies of Obama while the rest of us were trying to get Republicans elected." Romney said he'd tell China they have to play by the rules.

8:34 - Huntsman: Rattles off some Chinese, says what Mitt is advocating might get an applause line, but it would lead to a trade war.

Commercials!

George: What would you be doing on a Saturday night if you weren't running for president?

Perry - I'd be at the shooting range.

Newt - I'd be watching the college basketball championship game.

Santorum - *football*

Newt - Football, right. Sorry.

Santorum - I'd be with my family watching the game.

Romney - Football.

Paul - I'd be reading an economic textbook.

Huntsman - I'd be calling my two boys in the US Navy.

Diane Sawyer thanks us all for watching and to the candidates.

We're done!

We go to Jake Tapper first, and he says we were waiting to see if anyone would lay a glove on Romney, and no one really did. David Muir says the Romney camp is thrilled. Donna Brazile said Democrats think Romney's the weakest of the six candidates. (You know she's lying.) Mary Mataline has clearly had plastic surgery. Okay, that's enough. So how'd they do?

6. RICK PERRY - His first real answer, he tried to tie "hypocrisy" to Ron Paul, which doesn't work. Then he tried to say he wants to put troops back in Iraq, and that Iranians can move at the speed of light. He seemed to be answering as if he was in front of South Carolina voters. "I'd be at the shootin' range."

5. NEWT GINGRICH - The only time we saw his trademark petulant anger was when it was directed at Ron Paul or the bias against the Catholic Church. He debated like a man who knew he'd done horrible damage to his campaign with his nasty concession speech in Iowa. His pandering answer at the end was a flame-out.

4. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed to bring it and he was just okay. He did seem like the most willing to go against Romney, but nothing really stuck. His tax plan didn't seem that great to boast about when compared to Santorum's.

3. RON PAUL - Strong at times, doddering at other times. Those who love his foreign policy tend to hate his domestic policy. Those who love his domestic policy tend to hate his foreign policy. Then there are the libertarians who love both. Paul poked gaping holes in Santorum's claims, and he drew the ire of Santorum and Gingrich.

2. RICK SANTORUM - I hate to say it, but he did pretty well in his new position as the NotRomney. He was able to give longer answers to questions, got more questions, and his supporters are the kind that appreciate his digs against Ron Paul. His nitpicking over "middle class" versus "middle income" was just stupid, but his neocon arguments and his social conservative stances probably help him greatly in South Carolina.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Thanks for coming to the debate, guys. It's been great getting to know you all, and you're all fine individuals. Each of you has some good in you, has issues that I'd agree with. Oh, you're going to attack me directly? Let me slap you down with a smile. This nomination's mine, and there's nothing you can do about it. And none of you will be my vice-presidential pick, but it's cute to see you try.

Romney, Santorum win Iowa caucus

99% of the vote is in.  Too close to call.  I'm going to bed.

Thoughts on the Iowa Caucus results:

- Jon Huntsman all but insulted Iowa and he still got 742+ votes. Good for him.

- Michelle Bachmann's concession speech was tired and lackluster. She could barely muster an accent when slamming Obama's failed Socialist policies. No candidate has ever won the Ames straw poll only to come in as low as sixth in the caucus. If she doesn't drop out tomorrow, it's because she wants to be in one more debate.

- Rick Perry was sunny in defeat. He read some fanmail and seemed genuinely touched. It also appears like he's going to drop out.

- Newt Gingrich was a complete prick during his concession speech. Blustery, cranky, hypocritical, it reminded me of everything I disliked about him. He blasted negative ads from Mitt Romney while he's planning his own negative-ad campaign blitz tomorrow, but those are only "telling the truth." He slammed Ron Paul's foreign policy as "stunningly" dangerous, and he gushed over Rick Santorum. Newt made it clear he will do whatever he can to support Santorum and stop Romney if he can't win it himself. Newt's going to go down scorched-Earth style. Expect a whisper campaign in South Carolina about Mormons being secret satanists.

- Ron Paul finished in the top three, but darned if I could find anyone talking about on any of the channels as I flipped around.

- Rick Santorum... I do like how he's trying to put a spotlight on manufacturing jobs, but really, I have only this to say to the Iowa GOP: "You have got to be kidding me!"

- Mitt Romney had said for months he wasn't going to compete in Iowa, did not participate in the Ames straw poll, and yet when he decided to go ahead and compete, he may have pulled off the win. The vote's so close it doesn't really matter that much if he actually won or not. Top two was good enough. And now John McCain is going to endorse Romney to help curb this Santorum nonsense. Meanwhile, it's shrewd to have Ann introduce Mitt. She's one of his biggest assets. Mitt's gracious to Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in his speech, and he gives a good one, feels like he's taken bits and pieces from other stump speeches.

- UPDATE: Romney won by 8 votes.

Iowa Caucus Tomorrow

The last poll I saw had the top three as Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, all within 5 points of each other.  The next three were Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.  Jon Huntsman is not participating and has even dissed Iowa, but I'm sure he'll get a vote or two.

So how's the weather?

If Mitt Romney wins, it's over.  He'll get New Hampshire, and then South Carolina will throw up a roadblock, but then Mitt will get Florida, and that's all she wrote.

If Ron Paul wins, heads will explode.  We'll hear more about Ron Paul being a racist because of his newsletter.  We'll hear as president, he would roll over so Iran can pet his tummy, and he won't lift a finger when (not if, when!) Iran annihilates Israel.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum wants to attack Iran now.  Not in January 2013.  Now!  If Santorum wins, I propose the GOP come together and face facts, that Iowa needs to stop going first.  Give it to Missouri or Ohio.  Personally I think it should rotate every four years the order of the states having their primaries/caucuses.  Have a lotto every four years, the spring after the election.  Gives each state plenty of time to prepare.

Paul up in Iowa, Mitt up in New Hampshire

Nate Silver's awesome 538 blog has current projections as follows for the state caucuses and primaries. Obviously numbers change every few days but it's interesting to see where things stand right now.

IOWA

Ron Paul - 25.4%
Mitt Romney - 21.1%
Newt Gingrich - 15.5%
Rick Perry - 13.8%
Michele Bachmann - 10.9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Mitt Romney - 36.5%
Ron Paul - 19.9%
Newt Gingrich - 19.1%
Jon Huntsman - 13.5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA

Newt Gingrich - 37.9%
Mitt Romney - 23.2%
Ron Paul - 10.2%
Michele Bachmann - 9.8%
Rick Perry - 7.4%

FLORIDA

Newt Gingrich - 48.4%
Mitt Romney - 26.4%
Ron Paul - 7%
Rick Perry - 5.4%
Michele Bachmann - 5.3%

It's now a three-candidate race, although at this point I would not bet against Mitt Romney getting the nomination.  I would also point out that not in a single state does Rick Santorum appear in the top five.  Hopefully after he comes in sixth in Iowa, he drops out.  In fact, whoever finishes fifth in Iowa between Perry and Bachmann should drop out too.  Huntsman should stay in until New Hampshire, but if he can't crack the top three there, time for him to go too.

Fox News Iowa Debate

Fox doesn't have a three-minute Michael Bay trailer for the upcoming debate. Must've learned from CNN's overkill.

First question to Newt Gingrich by Bret Baier. Republicans say you're smart, a big thinker, but worry deeply about your electability, saying Mitt Romney is the safer choice. Newt compares himself to Reagan. Baier then brings up how Mitt called him an "unreliable" conservative. Newt then touts his record for 30 years of conservatism, balanced budgets, got Republicans to majority for first time in 40 years. [Single-handedly!]

Megyn Kelly then asks Ron Paul how he could possibly win the nomination and will he pledge tonight to not run as third party. Paul says just about anyone on stage would be better than Obama. She then asks Rick Santorum why he's "failed to catch fire" with voters. "Well, we hope to catch fire with voters in Iowa..." and then he spins off to his usual talking points.

Chris Wallace says "many of our viewers" say they're supporting Newt over you (Mitt Romney) because he's tougher; what say you? Mitt talks about how government doesn't create jobs; the private sector does. I know from my work in the private sector, from my successes and failures, how to make this economy work.

Wallace then asks Michelle Bachmann about the perception that she's too conservative. She touts her across-the-board appeal.

Neil Cavuto asks Rick Perry about his debate skills. Rick Perry says he's having fun and he can't wait to debate Obama; he'll show up early! He then compares himself to Tim Tebow. I'm not kidding.

Cavuto then almost sarcastically asks Jon Huntsman about why he won't sign the tax pledge. Huntsman says he won't sign any silly pledges, and he won't attend a Donald Trump debate. He then pauses whith any eyebrow like he expected to get a pop from the crowd but it only brings polite applause. He soldiers on about the trust deficit in this country, says we're getting screwed as Americans, we need term limits and to stop Congress from filing on out and lobbying.

The problem with these debates is most of the answers are the same. If you missed the first twelve, they want to make sure you get to hear their talking point this time, goldarnit!

Baier then gives each candidate 30 seconds to answer: how would you answer possible govt shutdown?

Santorum - Do what leaders do, tell a narrative, we come together to solve problems. People voted for Obama in 2008 because they believed in him. Americans need a president who believes in them. [Good line.]

Perry - We can't have an on-the-job training president. I am appalled Congress came up with a super-committee. (Yeah, Republicans and Democrats came up with that gem, Rick...)

Romney - We need more than 30 seconds. What is leadership? I was governor of state with 85% Democrats. To get anything done, I had to get respect of Speaker. We need to have leader who knows how to lead. I've had four different leadership posts.

Gingrich - Leadership is key. When you have a "Saul Alinksy radical" acting as "Campaigner-in-Chief" the Constitution can't work under those conditions. I worked with Bill Clinton to get things done.

Paul - Two factions in DC. One wants warfare, one wants welfare. Get each to cut some so the other will cut some.

Bachmann - I would have called all 535 Congressmen to come in and sit down during debt crisis. "No new taxes!"

Huntsman - Touts his flat tax passing in Utah and how he almost got 80% of the vote in his re-election bid. (Yes, he was a popular governor.)

Commercials!

Chris Wallace asks Mitt about Newt's comment that Mitt should give his millions back from the companies he bankrupted.

Romney - It's a great opportunity for us, becuz Obama will use the same attack tactic. Yes, some failed, but if you look at all the businesses we worked with, more of them succeeded. In the real world, some things don't work. I've learned the lessons.

Chris then asks Newt about his $1.6 million from Freddie Mac. Newt says he actually asked for more regulation, said he was a private citizen, contrasts it with Chris Dodd getting sweetheart deals from Countrywide.

Paul - He has a different definition of the "private sector" than I have. [BAM!] Paul sides with Mitt. Says colluding of big government and big business leads to fascism. [Don't oversell it!]

Newt - Talk to people at credit unions; there are some good govt-sponsored programs. Medicare, Medicaid. "I did no lobbying of any kind for any organization." [WHAT?!?!]

Bachmann - We know he cashed paychecks from Freddie Mac, and I am shocked listening to him, defending Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, big difference between them and credit unions. The speaker had his hand out for $1.6 million and scammed senior members of Congress to keep the scam going. [BAM!]

Newt - What she just said is factually not true. I never lobbied in any way.

Bachmann - PolitiFact said everything I said was true. You took $1.6 million; you don't need to be in the technical definition of lobbying to be influence-peddling. It's shocking.

Newt - My policy is to break up Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. I never once changed my position becuz of payment. I only chose to work with people whose values I shared.

Cavuto asks Newt about Paul Ryan's budget plan, calling it "right-wing social enineering." Newt says we need to communicate to the American people, says he liked Mitt's adjustments to the Ryan plan. Cavuto asks if Romney would like to respond to that compliment.

Romney says "Thank you" and goes on to talk about our natl balance sheet, commends Wyden/Ryan for coming together.

Cavuto calls out Paul on putting in money for his own district in natl budgets. Paul says your question should also point out I've never voted for an earmark. I look at it like tax deductions. If they're there, sure I'll apply for them, but as president I'd want to get rid of them. This whole principle of budgeting is mixed up. Cavuto talks over Paul's applause to say you're trying to have your cake and eating it too. Paul says if everyone did what I did, there'd be no earmarks and the budget would be balanced.

Cavuto turns to Perry, quotes how he vetoed bills and kept spending under control, but according to an Austin paper, he was guilty of doing what he campaigned against? First of all, don't believe everything you read in the Austin paper [noticeable chill], and then goes back to Newt, says we need to overhaul Washington DC, and the idea that Newt can't tell the difference between lobbying and advising is telling, says we need a part-time Congress. 140 days every other year. (Applause.)

Cavuto turns to Huntsman. How would you respond to China's "childish" move of putting tariffs on American SUVs and luxury vehicles? Well, the problem's all over. It's part North Korea, part Iran, part Burma, etc. etc. Invite some Chinese dissdents to the embassy. We need shared values infused into the relationship. That's democracy, human rights, tolerance to religion, and so much more.

Cavuto asks Santorum if he'd support tax holiday. Yeah, we need to get our taxes down. I promise to repeal every single ObamaCare regulation.

Romney brings up Solyndra. Let markets guide the economy. I think manufacturing will come back, like Rick S. talks about. We have extraordinary energy potential in this country. Our president thinks this country is in decline. It is if he's president. It won't be if I'm president. (Big applause.)

Megyn Kelly questions Newt about wanting to subpoena judges for decisions they make. Does that ruin checks and balances. "The courts have become grotesquely dictatorial." [Your mission: use that phrase in casual conversation in the next 24 hours. Go!] They're "frankly arrogant" in their misreading of the American people. Just like Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln and FDR, I will take on the judiciary if it didn't restrict itself from what it was doing. Yes, he's compared himself to five presidents so far.

Kelly asks Bachmann about activist courts. [I notice at this point something looks different about Megyn Kelly. Hair? Make-up? Not sure.]

Bachmann says the Congress and the President need to take their authority back from the court system. We need to take the Constitution back. I'd only appoint judges who believe in the original intent of the Constitution. Paul says Congress can impeach, but I'd really question subpoenas against judges. Yes, this can be frustrating, but if you say you're going to get rid of courts becuz they didn't rule a way you like, that's a huge can of worms. Subpoenas against judges harms checks and balances.

Kelly then questions why Mitt appointed so many judges who were Democrats or independents. Mitt says he doesn't appoint judges, he nominates them. But he points out one of the most important jobs of the President is to appoint Supreme Court justices. he sides with Paul on questioning Congress subpoena judges, "becuz the only thing more screwed up than justices is Congress." (laughs from audience). We don't call it "we the judges" we call it "we the people." We can impeach, we can pass amendments. We have the ability to reign in activist judges.

Santorum - "I'm the only one on this panel that did it" referring to reigning in activist judges. Says his favorite current Supreme Court judge is Thomas.

Perry - Wants term limits on Supreme Court justices, these "unaccountable legislators in robes." Likes Alito, Roberts, Thomas. Pick one. kelly says "Would you pick one please?"

Romney - Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Scalia.

Newt - Agrees with Romney's list.

Paul - from my view they're all good and they're all bad. Our country split freedom up into two pieces - personal and economic. The judges and Congress thinks it's two issues.

Bachmann - Scalia tops my list. Also Roberts, Thomas, Alito.

Huntsman - I'm optimistic about this country becuz of the rule of law. Governors have experience selecting judges. I like Roberts and Alito.

Commercials!

Paul - My Iranian policy would be much better. There's no UN evidence of Iran getting a weapon. I fear another Iraq coming. War propaganda. I fear we'll get a prez who overreacts and bombs Iran. Even Israel says it wouldn't make any sense taking them out becuz they might have a weapon. What did we do with Libya? We talked them out of their nuclear weapon, and then we killed him. Baier pushes back. Paul says your question seems to be "When are we going to bomb Iran?"

Santorum says Iran is ruled by a radical theocracy, mutual assured destruction worked on the USSR, but Iran wants martyrdom. Their objective is to create a calamity; it's what their theology teaches. They hate us becuz of who we are and what we believe. We should be working with Israel right now in working on taking out Iran's facilities.

Baier asks Romney about how Obama asked Iran for our drone back. (Laughs from audience.) Mitt - "Timidity invites aggression from other people." Our foreign policy based on "pretty please"? (Chuckles from audience.) America has to lead the free world, and the free world has to lead the entire world. The right course for America is to strengthen our country, our values, our families, and our military.

Bachmann - Obama was given on a silver platter victory in Iraq, and he's chosen intentionally to lose the peace. "With all due respect" to Paul, I've never heard a more dangerous natl security answer . (Cheers and boos.) Iran will use a nuclear weapon to wipe Israel off the map. Their mission is to spread jihad across the world.

Paul - To say all Muslims are the same is dangerous. They don't want to kill us becuz of who we are; they want us to stop bombing them. Why do you want another war? Carelessly flouting.

Bachmann - Careless underreacting to let a madman to get a nuclear weapon. IEIA report says they're months away from getting a weapon.

Paul - That's not true. If you think today's a dangerous world, think of when I was drafted in 1962. Kennedy and Khruschev talked without nuclear war. This endless attitude of going to war everywhere.

Baier asks if Newt would leave the UN. No, but we could reduce our reliance on it. We have every obligation to tell the truth on how corrupt the UN bureaucracy is.

Huntsman - The UN serves a useful purpose in peacekeeping and some humanitarian work, but I hate the anti-Americanism, the anti-Israel sentiments. First, we need a new foreign policy. We're still trapped in the Cold War mentality. Our core here is weak. Our economy is broken. Second, (ding!) Baier: You're out of time. Huntsman makes his second point anyway. baier dings him again.

Perry - I've called for a no-fly zone over Syria. They're Iran's partner, they connected at the hip. This administration has badly bungled the Middle East. He led from behind in Libya. he was totally weak with Iran in asking for our drone back.

Cavuto asks Newt about Obama's opposition to the Keystone pipeline. Newt says I'm accused of using language that's too strong, so I've been standing here editing. (laughs). the Canadian PM has said if you don't want to create this pipeline, I'll put it straight west through Vancouver and ship it to China. I'm using mild words here. It's "utterly irrational" for Obama to kill American jobs and reduce our access to energy. It makes no sense to any rational American. (applause) Cavuto: "No offense, sir, but you didn't answer my question." Attach it to the middle-class tax-cut. We're not backing down when we're right and you're totally wrong.

Huntsman - There will always be a balancing act. We need to fuel our future. We need to get rid of our heroin-like addiction to imported oil. We need to disrupt the oil monopoly. We need a president who understands the delicate balance. [Felt like he danced aroudn that one.]

Bachmann - Obama's entire calculus is on re-election. The radical environmentalists threatened to not support him if he passed Keystone. As prez, I would've put Keystone online immediately.

Cavuto points out Perry gave $7 billion in tax savings to oil. Perry points out this is the anniversary of the signing of the Bill of Rights. I like the Tenth. If a state wants to put tax policies in place that makes them more competitive, that's their right. Giovt in DC shouldn't pick winners and losers. (But he's arguing that governors should be able to pick winners and losers.)

Commercials!

Megyn Kelly asks Perry about Operation Fast & Furious. So far no evidence Atty. Gnrl. Eric Holder knew about it. Are you politicizing this? Perry says if there's an operation like Fast & Furious and the atty general didn't know about it, he should re-sign immediately. I've been dealing with border issues for 11 years.

Santorum - Agrees Holder needs to go. There are jihadist trainign camps in central and south America, and we know they're planning attacks on the US. Obama has embraced scoundrels in central and south America, like Chavez and Ortega.

Kelly asks Romney about the 11 million illegals he said need to go to their country of origin first before becoming US citizens, but he also said we're not going to just round em up and ship em out. How does that work? We'll give them ID cards for those who come here legally. When they apply for a job, they need to show that job. newt's suggested something similar. You say to illegals you can't work here. You need to get in line.

Newt - We mostly agree on that, but someone whp's been here 25 years should get some consideration. I'd drop the fed lawsuits against states.

Huntsman - We don't need to pander. Pro-growth, strong values. these appeal to hispanics/Latinos. but look at the numbers of those coming across the borders. There's nothing to come for! We've got to secure the borders, of course, but let's not lose sight of the fact that legal immigration is pro-growth for this country. Remake our visa system. This is an economic development opportunity.

Chris Wallace, whom Joe Scarborough said loathes Mitt Romney, asks this question: "You've changed your position in the last 10 years on abortion, on gay rights, on guns, you say keeping an open mind is a strength, but some of your critics say every one of these moves is to your political advantage, when you were running in MA you took liberal positions, now running for president you take conservative positions. Is that principle or is it just politics?" [Wow, Chris, really?] Mitt takes exception to your list there. I've been the same on gay rights. On abortion I changed my mind. I studied the issue. I've learned over time, like Reagan and HW Bush, where I've been wrong, I've changed my mind. I've always been for the 2nd Amendment. Chris in gotcha question mode lists off positions on gay rights, abortion, gun rights. Romney defends each position, and by the end you can tell he's a little upset with Chris. [Shorter Mitt: I'm going to be the nominee, Chris, and you can't stop me.]

Chris then asks Santorum if he's persuaded. [Eye roll.] Might as well have said, "Rick, attack Romney for me." Santorum points out only the governor and legislature can change marriage law. Mitt had choice to go with "the court or the Constitution." He chose the court. He personally handed out gay-marriage licenses. We're not talking about discrimination, we're talking about securing values.

Mitt - That's a very novel interpretation of what the MA Supreme Court did. I fought to put in a amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman. I've been a champion of protecting traditional marriage.

Chris Wallace asks Bachmann about abortion. She says the GOP can't get the issue of life wrong. Newt said he'd campaign for Republicans who were for partial-birth abortion.

Newt - Sometimes Bachmann gets her facts wrong.

Bachmann - I think it's outrageous to say I don't have my facts right when as a matter of fact, I do. I am a serious candidate for the presidency. [If you have to say it...] Gingrich said it.

Newt - I don't see how you're going to govern if you're going to run around trying to figure out who to purge.

Baier mentions 11th Commendment from Reagan while some audience member complains he hasn't asked about the Federal Reserve.

Santorum - We have a responsibility to vet the candidates. Let's find out who can stand up.

Perry - There was an NFL player said if you're not getting your tail kicked, you're not playing at a high-enough level. I'd like to thank these folks on stage for letting me play at a high-enough level.

Romney - We can take it. Obama's going to have a billion dollars to go after me or whoever the nominee is.

Gingrich - If you look at my website, my debates, I go to the American people with big ideas. These six are friends of mine, and all would be a better president than Obama.

Paul - The media has a responsibility and we have a responsibility. We have to get this information out. There are some things below the belt. I don't like taking things out of context. If we disagree on an issue, we should expose it.

Bachmann - It's the same with Reagan. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Unquestionably we're worse off under Obama.

Huntsman - I actually worked for Reagan. Debate is good. It must be respectful and vigorous. It will lead to trust. This type of debate will elevate the nominee.

And that's a wrap!

So.... how'd they do...

　

　

7. RICK SANTORUM - He had one good line but otherwise was irrelevant on the stage. Most of his questions were about other candidates. Rick can boast he's been to every county in Iowa, but it's never he's stuck in sixth, in front of the only candidate who's said he's not competing in Iowa and only comes for the debates.

6. JON HUNTSMAN - He may be in Iowa, but he's debating to show New Hampshire he's their guy. I don't think he did enough to stand out. He needed to increase momentum, and this felt like a wheel-spinning performance, repeating many of the thigns he's said before, even danced around a couple questions. And he's not setting himself up for 2016. If the GOP nominee loses, 2016 will have Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Marco Rubio, John Thune, Jeb Bush, etc., plenty of options.

5. RICK PERRY - Relaxed, friendly, happy to be there, lucky to be there. Why is he still here? I thought the Tim Tebow reference was goofy, but maybe some evangelicals heard it and went "One of us! One of us!" Was giddy in attacking Congress and the Supreme Court, checks and balances be damned.

4. NEWT GINGRICH - Tonight was an effective microcosm example of why Newt's debate skills are good enough that he could win the GOP nomination but then get eviscerated in the general. The crowd was most enthusiastic when he attacked the judiciary, talking about subpoenas for judges, banning courts, etc. Good grief, really? But he was weakest in defending his Freddy Mac connections. His arguing over what is technically "lobbying" felt like Clinton's dance on the head of a pin over "is."

3. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Went after Newt Gingrich the strongest, made points that needed to be made. Stoof up for herself when Newt appeared dismissive. Also acted as surrogate for the anti-Ron Paul contingent when talking about how dangerous Iran is. Probably her best performance in months. Maybe she'll take fourth in Iowa after all.

2. RON PAUL - He can still win Iowa. His Iran answers didn't play to the crowd, and I know many conservatives who like his domestic ideas but loathe his foreign ones. He got in the best slam of the night on Newt.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Mitt did just what he needed to do. He was magnanimous with Newt, letting the lesser-tier candidates do the attacking. He defended his positions well and kept the focus on Obama. He stood up to Chris Wallace, and not in the Newt way ("media malpractice!"). Mitt is demonstrating he does have the strength to stand up for himself in a debate but kill with kindness. Maybe he won't win Iowa, but this may be the step-stool to a New Hampshire landslide.

(Until the next debate. Who am I kidding?)