Romney, Santorum win Iowa caucus

99% of the vote is in.  Too close to call.  I'm going to bed.

Thoughts on the Iowa Caucus results:

- Jon Huntsman all but insulted Iowa and he still got 742+ votes. Good for him.

- Michelle Bachmann's concession speech was tired and lackluster. She could barely muster an accent when slamming Obama's failed Socialist policies. No candidate has ever won the Ames straw poll only to come in as low as sixth in the caucus. If she doesn't drop out tomorrow, it's because she wants to be in one more debate.

- Rick Perry was sunny in defeat. He read some fanmail and seemed genuinely touched. It also appears like he's going to drop out.

- Newt Gingrich was a complete prick during his concession speech. Blustery, cranky, hypocritical, it reminded me of everything I disliked about him. He blasted negative ads from Mitt Romney while he's planning his own negative-ad campaign blitz tomorrow, but those are only "telling the truth." He slammed Ron Paul's foreign policy as "stunningly" dangerous, and he gushed over Rick Santorum. Newt made it clear he will do whatever he can to support Santorum and stop Romney if he can't win it himself. Newt's going to go down scorched-Earth style. Expect a whisper campaign in South Carolina about Mormons being secret satanists.

- Ron Paul finished in the top three, but darned if I could find anyone talking about on any of the channels as I flipped around.

- Rick Santorum... I do like how he's trying to put a spotlight on manufacturing jobs, but really, I have only this to say to the Iowa GOP: "You have got to be kidding me!"

- Mitt Romney had said for months he wasn't going to compete in Iowa, did not participate in the Ames straw poll, and yet when he decided to go ahead and compete, he may have pulled off the win. The vote's so close it doesn't really matter that much if he actually won or not. Top two was good enough. And now John McCain is going to endorse Romney to help curb this Santorum nonsense. Meanwhile, it's shrewd to have Ann introduce Mitt. She's one of his biggest assets. Mitt's gracious to Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in his speech, and he gives a good one, feels like he's taken bits and pieces from other stump speeches.

- UPDATE: Romney won by 8 votes.

Iowa Caucus Tomorrow

The last poll I saw had the top three as Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, all within 5 points of each other.  The next three were Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.  Jon Huntsman is not participating and has even dissed Iowa, but I'm sure he'll get a vote or two.

So how's the weather?

If Mitt Romney wins, it's over.  He'll get New Hampshire, and then South Carolina will throw up a roadblock, but then Mitt will get Florida, and that's all she wrote.

If Ron Paul wins, heads will explode.  We'll hear more about Ron Paul being a racist because of his newsletter.  We'll hear as president, he would roll over so Iran can pet his tummy, and he won't lift a finger when (not if, when!) Iran annihilates Israel.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum wants to attack Iran now.  Not in January 2013.  Now!  If Santorum wins, I propose the GOP come together and face facts, that Iowa needs to stop going first.  Give it to Missouri or Ohio.  Personally I think it should rotate every four years the order of the states having their primaries/caucuses.  Have a lotto every four years, the spring after the election.  Gives each state plenty of time to prepare.

Paul up in Iowa, Mitt up in New Hampshire

Nate Silver's awesome 538 blog has current projections as follows for the state caucuses and primaries. Obviously numbers change every few days but it's interesting to see where things stand right now.

IOWA

Ron Paul - 25.4%
Mitt Romney - 21.1%
Newt Gingrich - 15.5%
Rick Perry - 13.8%
Michele Bachmann - 10.9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Mitt Romney - 36.5%
Ron Paul - 19.9%
Newt Gingrich - 19.1%
Jon Huntsman - 13.5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA

Newt Gingrich - 37.9%
Mitt Romney - 23.2%
Ron Paul - 10.2%
Michele Bachmann - 9.8%
Rick Perry - 7.4%

FLORIDA

Newt Gingrich - 48.4%
Mitt Romney - 26.4%
Ron Paul - 7%
Rick Perry - 5.4%
Michele Bachmann - 5.3%

It's now a three-candidate race, although at this point I would not bet against Mitt Romney getting the nomination.  I would also point out that not in a single state does Rick Santorum appear in the top five.  Hopefully after he comes in sixth in Iowa, he drops out.  In fact, whoever finishes fifth in Iowa between Perry and Bachmann should drop out too.  Huntsman should stay in until New Hampshire, but if he can't crack the top three there, time for him to go too.