The Inevitable President Hillary, and Other 2016 Speculations

I can't say I learned anything new from Hillary Clinton's interview with Diane Sawyer. Hillary said she hasn't made up her mind if she's running for President in 2016. This, of course, is a lie, but it's a lie we dance around every mid-term. 2006, 2010, 2014 are the years for midterm swings in Congress, but they are also the years for people who have every intention of running for President to issue denials that they've made up their mind.

The remark that's received the most publicity is the one about her and Bill being "dead broke" when she left the White House. Yeah, right. Somehow they managed to make millions back. Even Chelsea made $600,000 from NBC for filing three reports. This is actually one good reason why a Republican needs to win in 2016. Do you value the press? Do you want the media to hold truth to power? They tend to be at their best when a Republican's in office. I predict Years 9-12 of a Democratic Oval Office will further erode the credibility of the Fourth Estate.

Now I actually think Hillary would have been a better President than Obama. She's better at building relationships. We needed him for the history, to help us get over the hump and actually have an African-American as President 150 years after Lincoln. We also needed to not have a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton daisy chain. Now that Obama's been in for two terms, Americans seem to be a little more ready to stomach another President Clinton. It's her election to lose. Of course, so was 2008's.

So maybe Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren will make it interesting on the Democratic side. As for the Republicans, they need their own Obama, that transformative figure that can inspire. Mitt Romney did not inspire. Never mind he was right about Russia and Iraq and several other things. You have to win first.

So who are the 2016 possibilities? Well, let's see.

NO WAY THEY RUN AGAIN

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul. Yes, Mitt won't run again. But I have no doubt he wants to help pick the next nominee.

THEY MIGHT RUN AGAIN

Rick Perry - The Texas governor is wearing glasses now to make himself appear smarter and more stately. Of the ones who ran in 2012, I see him as the most likely to give it another shot. I think this would be a big mistake, but never underestimate Texas.

Rick Santorum - Still a decent chance the social conservative gives it another try. It'd be a huge waste of money if he did.

Mike Huckabee - The host of his own weekly radio and weekend Fox News show will send out feelers to see if he would have a chance. His folksy approach is palatable, but I see 2016 as a year where Republicans do not want an also-ran.

THE "ESTABLISHMENT" NAMES

Jeb Bush - If Americans can stomach the thought of a second Clinton presidency, can they stomach the thought of a third Bush? Jeb's always been seen as the smarter brother, the one that should have run in 2000 had Florida played along. There's also no doubt in my mind he would have been a better president than W.  But Jeb's time has passed.

Chris Christie - The press loved the big guy for a while. But without Mitt Romney to kick around, MSNBC decided to become the Anti-Chris Christie channel. Plus many conservatives don't trust him.

THE LIKELY CANDIDATES

Ted Cruz - The divisive Tea Party hero would certainly be able to draw up passion from his base. He'd face opposition in places like New Hampshire and Michigan who view him as too extreme to win a general election.

Rand Paul - Rand will be an interesting one to watch. He can get some of the Libertarian cred thanks to his dad, some Tea Party cred, and he's shown the ability to breathe fire one day, then play nice with others the next. He'll be vulnerable in some primaries for not being as hawkish as other candidates, but in other primaries, that'll be one of his biggest strengths.

Marco Rubio - The Florida senator would greatly benefit if his friend Jeb would decide not to run and just support him instead. Like Cruz, he'd make history as the first Latino president. He's facing early opposition from the anti-amnesty crowd.

Scott Walker - The Wisconsin governor could be a real factor in 2016. He won a recall challenge handily in 2012 after slashing the state budget, and that emboldened his GOP supporters. He's shrunk the deficit there, so fiscal conservatives love him.

Bobby Jindal - Since his disastrous response to the State of the Union, he's kept his head down in Louisiana, just strengthening his resume. His handling of Hurrican Gustav was far better than how his predecessor had handled Hurricane Katrina. His approval ratings dipped after 2012 but have been coming up this year.

Paul Ryan - He's a national name now thanks to his Vice-Presidential candidacy, though I think many voters will remember he did nothing to move the needle in 2012 and how he let Joe Biden steal his lunch money during the debate.

John Kasich - I'll throw his name out there, because he seems to have built a very solid resume as governor. Kasich served in the US House from 1983-2001. He ran for President in 2000 but did badly and dropped out early to support Bush. He had his own Fox News Channel show for a while, and he worked at Lehman Brothers when the stock market crashed. His political rehabilitation as Ohio governor saw that state become one of the first to show true growth post-crash.

WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN?

There are a few women who could get into this election cycle.

Susanna Martinez - Hey, a twofer! A Latina woman. The New Mexico governor enjoys popularity in her state and has strengthened her bonafides in border security. She could get hit in primaries for New Mexico's low job growth, but between now and 2016 she has time to get that improved.

Nikki Haley - She's South Carolina's first female governor, and she'd be the first Indian American president, should she win. She's young; she's turn 44 in 2016. She attends Methodist and Sikh services, so she has quite a multicultural thing going on.

Mary Fallin - The Oklahoma governor could be tempted to throw her hat into the ring. She's popular at home, she (like Martinez and Haley) should be enjoying her second term as governor when decision-time comes around. She has some personal issues that some could make an issue of, but after Newt ran, that just dwarfs anything any other candidate will ever have to cop to.

Sarah Palin - She won't run, but she'll flirt with the idea through 2016 as she tries to sell a book or score another reality show.

CNN Arizona Debate

"Okay, I'll endorse you again! Quit twisting my arm!"

Openings statements:

Why do they still have to introduce themselves?


Ron Paul calls himself the champion of liberty.

Rick Santorum says we've got troubles right here in River City.

Mitt Romney whistles the theme from The Andy Griffith Show.

Newt Gingrich will make sure no president ever bows to a Saudi king again.

FIRST QUESTION:

1. For the first time in 65 years, our debt exceeds our GDP; what will you do about it?

SANTORUM - I'll cut $5 trillion in 5 years. I have experience in cutting entitlements. When I was born, the budgets were at low levels now they're at high levels. Cut welfare, freeze it, give it to the states. Poverty is not a disability.

ROMNEY - Rick voted to raise the debt ceiling five times, but to the question, I've been in business where you have to balance the budget or you go out of business. I've balanced budget in business, in the Olympics and in Massachusetts.

SANTORUM - You use Occupy Wall Street rhetoric.

ROMNEY - I have a better record than you.

GINGRICH - As Speaker, I balanced the budget for four straight years. Going to the Founding Fathers, Hamilton said you have to have jobs to generate growth. We need a better energy policy.

Romney always looks directly at whoever's speaking so if they happen to glance at him, they'll meet his eyes.

(John King: Ron Paul, you called Santorum a "fake" in one of your ads. Why?)

PAUL - Because he's a fake. (Laughter/applause.)

SANTORUM - I'm real.

PAUL - Congratulations. When people run for office, they run as fiscal conservatives. When they get there, they do something different, then they say, "Oh I want to repeal that!" You lose credibility.

SANTORUM - You serve in one of the most conservative districts in Texas; it was easy for you. I served in Pennsylvania.

PAUL - You know what this is? The world's tiniest violin.

(John King: Mitt, you called yourself "severely" conservative. Defend yourself.)

ROMNEY - I was a pro-life governor. I stood up for the Catholic church. I saved the Olympics. I balanced the budget as a businessman. You can't be anything but a fiscal conservative to be a successful businessman.

GINGRICH - Romney moved in the right direction in getting closer to supply-side economics, but frankly not cutting more capital gains taxes would be disastrous. I want to fundamentally change everything, making me kind of like Ron Paul. Secure the border, balance the budget.

(John King: Earmarks are a sliver of the budget but Tea Party activists think it's a big deal.)

SANTORUM - Romney asked for earmarks for the Olympic Games. I fought against earmarks once I saw there was abuse in the system. I'm like Jim DeMint, except he's an earmarker.

ROMNEY - Whatever. Ban earmarks. Rick voted for the Bridge to Nowhere. In the history of the Olympics, the Fed Govt has always taken care of transportation and security, so that's what we asked for.

SANTORUM - You would've been for earmarks. I'd like the president to have a line-item veto. ANd hey, Paul, is a huge earmarker. (Some audience grumbles.) Hey, I'm not criticizing...

GINGRICH - Olympics earmarks were appropriate but how can Mitt criticize Rick for doing the same thing because he thinks his earmarks were right and Rick's were wrong?

PAUL - All of Congress is screwed up; that's the problem. If you don't like the spending bill, vote against the bill.

(John King: Question on auto bailouts.)

SANTORUM - I've been on the consistant side against bailouts. Romney was not.

ROMNEY - Nice try, but let's look at the facts. In 2008, Bush was still in office. The 3 auto-heads flew on their jet planes to Congress and asked for $50 billion bailout. I found that inappropriate. I said they should go through managed bankruptcy. (The fact that this gets applause shows the audience here is pro-Mitt.) The head of the UAW said the auto industry would disappear.

SANTORUM - Wall Street got bailed out and you supported that.

GINGRICH - The auto bailout was just Obama paying off the UAW.

PAUL - There aren't good bailouts and bad bailouts. They're all bad. Calling the auto bailout a success is like saying if you robbed a bank and got away with it, you're a success.

John King then asks about birth control and it gets boos from the audience. Newt then says no one in the elite media asked Barack Obama in 2008 why he supported "legallizing infanticide." Mitt says no administration in history has been more opposed to religious freedom. (Um, James Buchanan, anyone?) Rick is against birth control, but gives a great answer, he says the difference between him and the left is that just because he's talking about something doesn't mean he wants a government program to fix it. (Applause!) But then he also talks about contraception encouragin morality. Ron says contraception cannot be blamed for the immorality of a nation. Mitt then cites all the stats on how being born out of wedlock puts you at a disadvantage.

GINGRICH - As Ron Paul has been saying for a generation, when you have government enter health care, you're on the road toward tyranny, whether it's Obamacare or Romneycare, any cetralized government approach to health care takes aware our freedom.

PAUL - If you vote for Planned Parenthood as Rick has, you voted for birth control pills. Planned Parenthood should get nothing.

SANTORUM - Well, I did vote for appropriation bills that had stuff in it I didn't like, but to counter I also pushed for abstinence programs.

PAUL - That costs money too. I'd be against this.

Starting to feel bad for Rick Santorum. This crowd is clearly pro-Romney and pro-Paul, and the two are doing some good tag-teamming on Rick.

Romney points our Rick endorsed him in 2008, also points out Rick endorsed Arlen Specter, the 60th vote for Obamacare.

It shifts to immigration. Gingrich pimps his double-fence border idea. We get a shot of Callista Gingrich sitting next to Rick Perry. Where's Mrs. Perry? "Danger! Danger!"

Santorum says we need to use E-Verify (a federal program).

John King asks them to use one word to describe themselves.

PAUL - "Consistant."

SANTORUM - "Courage."

ROMNEY - "Resolute."

GINGRICH - "Cheerful." (Laughs.)

We now go to foreign policy. Romney slams Obama, points out Syria's a mess. King asks about women in combat. Gingrich and Santorum give artful, dodgy answers, but Paul vehemently comes out against war. He doesn't want women to die in combat, he doesn't want men to die in combat.

We slide now to the question of Iran, and Gingrich said this is one of the times he's for pre-emption, if Israel belived Iran was about to bomb them, he'd be okay with them striking first. Which was pretty much the rationale for going to Iraq.

I am honestly starting to lose interest now.

They shift back to Syria, and Santorum passionately pleads that if Obama's re-elected, it will be a cataclysmic doomsday World War III apocalypse started by the nuclear Iran and Syria. Gingrich says we need to make the US the biggest supplier of oil in the world. We need to have our allies covert destroy the regimes over there. Romney says he agrees with both of them, but he says it's great that Syria's leader is in trouble. We should encourage Saudi Arabia and Turkey to provide Assad's enemies weapons.

PAUL - I've tried the moral argument and the Constitutional argument, let's try the financial argument. We're spending trillions being bogged down in the Middle East. We don't have the money. Remember, the Soviets left Afghanistan because they were bankrupt.

John King brings up No Child Left Behind, and Santorum says yeah, Bush wanted it and I voted for it, and I regret it. (Boos.) Hey, politics is a team sport. I believe the federal government should get out of the education business, and the state government. Send it to local communities. (Slow down, dude.)

Final question. What's the misconcpetion about you?

PAUL - That I can't win. I clearly can.

GINGRICH - I wish people understood the amount of work it actually took to balance the budget and get welfare reform.

ROMNEY - Gives his usual summation speech, doesn't answer the question.

SANTORUM - Takes Mitt's lead, pleads for people to vote for him becuz he can do a lot with a little, doesn't really answer the "misconception" question either.

I didn't feel like there was a clear winner here, if you're talking momentum changer. Ron Paul was his usual twinkly-eyed self, only lost the crowd on foreign policy. I don't think he or Mitt Romney ever directly criticized each other. Romney showed no fear in going after others, and I think he did enough here to solidify Arizona and probably squeak out Michigan. All the polls right now show that no one is going to dominate Super Tuesday. Newt should win Georgia, Rick should win Pennsylvania, but Santorum, by not hitting a home-run in the debate, should slip. Therefore I'd have to say Romney was the winner and Santorum the loser.

Mitt crushes Newt in Florida

With 49% of the votes counted in Florida, Mitt Romney has 48% of the vote, Newt Gingrich has 31%, Rick Santorum has 13%, and Ron Paul has 7%.

It has to be sweet for Mitt to win by a wider margin over newt than Gingrich did in South Carolina.

Isn't Florida the oldest state in the nation?  I thought the Ron Paul rEVOLution would do better there.  Then again, his biggest constituents are people under 30.

Florida CNN Republican Debate

8:00 - The opening intros feel like they could be the opening credits for the next X-Men movie.

8:04 - A local choir sings the National Anthem. Mitt & Rick sing along. Newt looks around confused. Ron looks like he's sucking on a cough drop.

8:07 - Wolf Blitzer feels the need to remind candidates how to introduce themselves. Rick starts, points out his 93-year-old mother's in attendance. She stands to applause. Rick wisely decides to just end on that note.

8:08 - Newt is thrilled to be in Jacksonville, site of the "next new nuclear aircraft carrier battle group." Mitt points out he has 16 grandkids. Ron introduces himself as a champion of the gold standard and rejects the notion of nation building.

QUESTION FROM AUDIENCE: Illegal immigration.

8:09 - Rick says we need to obey the laws in this country, says his grandpa was an immigrant. He has this way of looking like his teeth are clenched when he speaks, but his tone sounds sincere. "Immigrants bring a vitality and a love of this country."

8:11 - Newt says he's pledged to control the border by January 2014. Wants citizenship to be easier, but deportation easier too. Rick & Newt support Mitt's option of "self-deportation." Newt points out he wouldn't deport grandmothers and grandfathers here, proposes a panel to determine if they can at least have residency.

8:12 - Mitt: I don't think anyone's interested in deporting 11 million Americans, excuse me, 11 million illegal immigrants. We have a responsibility to those millions waiting to become legal citizens.

8:14 - Ron: the weaker the economy, the more resentment against illegal immigrants. The way we're handling our borders is hurting our economy. We worry too much about the obrder of Afghanistan and Pakistan; we should worry more about our own.

8:16 - Wolf asks Newt about his comment that Mitt was "anit-immigrant." Newt says "you need to be realistic in your indignation." Yes, Newt said that about someone else. Would make some exceptions for some humanity. Wolf asks if he still views Mitt as anti-immigrant. "Of the four of us, yes."

8:17 - Mitt launches into the most awesome take-down of any debate that's ever been televised. He calls Newt's comment "inexcusable." "My father was born in Mexico." Says the idea is repulsive, goes off on Newt's "over the top rhetoric", says he should apologize for it. Thunderous applause from audience.

8:19 - Newt says what would you call it when you want to deport a grandmother? Mitt says he's pro-immigrant, he wants immigrants to come who have vitality and something to contribute, and to indicate that someone willing to follow the law is anti-immigrant is wrong. Newt goes on to categorize Mitt's heartless view toward grandmothers. Mitt counters "our problem is not 11 million grandmothers." ((Laughs from crowd.))

8:20 - Wolf asks about a Romney ad that says Gingrich called Spanish "the language of the ghetto." Mitt says he hasn't seen the ad; is it true Newt said it? Newt said no, he didn't say Spanish, he meant any language from the ghetto and that Dade Community College has 94 languages on its campus. ((I've seen the full quote. He didn't say the word "Spanish" but that's definitely what he meant. And on Twitter, someone pointed out Newt said Dade had 86 languages on campus last week.))

8:21 - Mitt says he doubts it's his ad, but he'll look, but he gives his stance on English as official language, says he and Newt agree on English immersion.

QUESTION FROM HISPANIC LEADERSHIP COUNCILWOMAN: Trade policy with Latin America?

8:22 - Ron: Free trade is the answer, including Cuba. Handful of claps, one "Woo!"

8:24 - Rick: I'm not with Ron Paul or Barack Obama on this. The US govt let down Honduras, Obama sided with Chavez and Castro against the people of Honduras. We didn't stand up for Colombia. Obama sides with the leftist, terrorists, Jihadits, etc. (I'm struck by the notion that I never would've predicted Rick Santorum would've made the final four.)

8:25 - Ron: You're talking about force, we can't be bullies to the world.

8:26 - Rick: I don't know what you're responding to, it wasn't my answer. I'm not talking about force in dealing with military socialists, narco-terrorists.

8:27 - Wolf says we just double-checked and the radio ad has you at the end saying "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message." Mitt: Okay, did he say it? Newt: I said in general. Period. Mitt: We'll see.

8:29 - Wolf shifts it to the foreclosure crisis in the country. Mitt uses the opportunity to criticize Newt's $1.6 million he pocketed from Freddie Mac. Newt rolls up his sleeves and say he was shocked - SHOCKED! - to find out Mitt owns shares in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and he owns shares of Goldman Sachs, who is foreclosing homes in Florida, so maybe Mitt should disclose how much money he's made off of home foreclosures. Crowd responses with some boos and some applause.

8:30 - Mitt says "I know something you don't. I'm not left-handed either." First of all, his finances are handled by a blind trust so he can't have conflicts of interest. Second, he doesn't own any stocks, he owns bonds and mutual funds. "But, Mr. Speaker, have you checked your own investments?" And the suspense is palpable for that two-second pause before Romney drops the bombshell. Newt also owns mutual funds that invest in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

I notice here that Newt Gingrich uses the high-school / college debate-team style of looking at your judges / audience when attacking your opponent. Mitt Romney looks you in the eye.

Mitt keeps going, piles on further about Newt's $1.6 million.

8:34 - Newt looks uncomfortable in his defensive response.

8:35 - Ron Paul - "That subject really doesn't interest me a whole lot." Loud applause!

8:36 - Rick S: "Can we just concede that Newt was a member of Congress and Mitt's a rich guy and move on?" Loud applause!

commercials

8:39 - Wolf comes back with a quote that Newt said about Mitt, and Newt says it's a silly question, let's talk about real issues. Wolf Blitzer sticks with it, gets booed, Mitt says "Hey, I'm standing right here, say it to my face." Newt says okay, rattles off his critique of Mitt's Swiss bank account, Mitt comes back explaining it in more detail, says Republicans really shouldn't attack people for being successful.

8:42 - Wolf brings it back to taxes. Newt wants a flat-tax, wants to shrink the government to match revenue, not raise revenue to catch up to government. Rick says he wants the 28% tax rate Reagan had (*cough!* for one year *cough!*) but thinks the ultra-rich should still pay some taxes. Ron Paul says get rid of the 16th amendment, cut taxes, restore sound monetary policy. So bottom line, they all want Romney to pay less taxes.

8:48 - Wolf now asks Ron Paul about his age. Ron Paul has sweetheart response about challenging any candidate to a 25-mile bike ride through Texas. Also jokes about age discrimination laws. Wolf has a chilling aside of "I look forward to seeing those medical records."

8:50 - The moon! The moon comes up!

8:57 - Phew, losing steam watching this. Mitt, Rick, Ron all pokes holes in Newt's claim he'll have a moon base by 2020. With this economy and the spending they all plan to cut, how could Newt push for a lunar base?

8:58 - Mitt slams Newt's style of promising projects for whatever state he's campaigning in, which gets big cheers. Newt says we can set priorities with spending and get things done, touts his balancing the budget four years in a row. Ron Paul points out the national debt went up a trillion in those four years.

9:00 - Rick laments how Obama won't get our fiscal house in order. We need to quit promising projects and special spending when we had a $1.2 trillion budget deficit last year.

QUESTION FROM AN UNEMPLOYED WOMAN WEARING A FUR COAT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS MADE FROM THE MUPPETS' RALPH THE DOG - Health care.

9:02 - Ron Paul: Medical care insurance should be individual, not tied to your job. When govt gets involved, costs go up. Govt has inflated cost of health care.

9:03 - Newt: repeal Obamacare, repeal Dodd-Frank, repeal Sarbanes-Oxley. Reform insurance system, grow economy.

9:04 - Mitt talks about how Obama's promised a lot of things but he'll actually do them.

9:07 - Rick S says that all sounds great, but Mitt created RomneyCare, predecessor for ObamaCare, and Newt was for individual mandate. Newt defends it at the state level. Mitt stands by RomneyCare, says it's flawed but it has a lot of benefits. Rick S passionately protests any version of individual mandate at federal or state level. Mitt calmly responds by explaining it in more detail. Rick S slams it more.

9:10 - Mitt: "It's not worth getting angry about." Lead balloon in this room. Mitt goes on to explain how his plan is different than Obama's. Rick: "What he said is factually incorrect!"

9:13 - Wolf asks Ron Paul who's right. "I think they're all wrong."

QUESTION FROM SPOUSE OF MARINE - Which Hispanic leaders would you consider in your Cabinet?

Rick: Marco Rubio.

Newt: Susanna Martinez, Rubio.

Mitt: Sandoval, Martinez, Diaz, Mel Martinez, Rubio, Gutierrez....

Ron: I won't name names, but Hispanics are attune to non-intervention foreign policy.

9:17 - Before going to break, Wolf says his next QUESTION will be about why your wife would make a great First Lady. And Newt has the break to sweat.

commercials

9:23 - Ron: We've been married 54 years, author of a cookbook.

9:24 - Mitt: We've been married 42 years, she survived MS and breast cancer.

9:25 - Newt: These 3 women would make great First Ladies. (He's referring to the other candidates wives, not his 3 wives.) But Callista would bring music appreciation and patriotism.

9:26 - Rick's wife was not in attendance, but he gave a heartfelt tribute to her.

9:28 - Back and forth with Newt & Mitt about the mantle of Reagan. Yawwwwn.

QUESTION FROM CUBAN IMMIGRANT - How should US handle Cuba?

9:32 - Rick: Obama's encouraged the cancer in Cuba and it's spread to Venezuela. We're rewarding this thuggery, this Marxism, these jihadists in central and south America.

9:34 - Ron: Sanctions help Castro, don't hurt him. Sanctions help the dictators. The Cold War is over. I don't think people see jihadists under the bed at night.

9:36 - Mitt: Obama's ignored Latin America. Also mistake to give in to Putin or Castro or Chavez or Achmadinejad with what they want. Dictators look for weakness. Newt: We need to help Cuba move to freedom once Castro dies.

QUESTION FROM PALESTINIAN REPUBLICAN - How will you help bring peace between Israel and Palestine?

9:38 - Mitt and Newt respond with pro-Israel views, and the questioner looks like the loneliest man in the room.

QUESTION FROM PUERTO RICAN WOMAN - Where do you stand on Puerto Rico becoming a state?

9:42 - Rick: Me and the governor of Puerto Rico used to go to church together. Puerto Rico has high unemployment and we need to help them. I take no stand on them becoming a state; it's up to them.

QUESTION FROM ATTORNEY - How would your religious beliefs impact your decisions as president?

9:45 - Ron: My religious beliefs affect my character and the way I live.

9:46 - Mitt: The Creator endowed us with unalienable rights, including life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

9:47 - Newt: If you're "truly faithful" it should affect your life. Then slams anti-Christian bias of secular media and religious oppression of the state.

9:48 - Rick: The Constitution is the How of America, the Declaration of the Independence is the Why of America. We have God-given rights. If rights come from the state, then everything the govt gives you, they can take away.

commercials

QUESTION FROM WOLF - Tell us why you are the one person on this stage to most likely beat Pres. Obama.

9:53 - Ron: My appeal to freedom and the Constitution crosses party lines. I do well against Obama in national polls.

9:54 - Mitt: To change DC dramatically, you need someone from the outside. Pretty much gives a mini stump speech.

9:55 - Newt: I was there in 1994 and now I'm running for my two grandkids.

9:56 - Rick: I was against govt bailouts, both bought into cap-and-trade, both bought into global warming hoax.

Some great entertaining clashes in there. Other dull spots, and I'd attribute that to the questions.  Seriously, we've had several debates, and look at the selection of questions.  So how'd they do?


NEWT GINGRICH - His big selling point was he could out-debate Obama.  Well, he wilted tonight.  Romney disemboweled him early and he never recovered.  Even the First Lady question, Mitt was able to point out his wife had MS and cancer.  The unspoken point was to Gingrich, who left wife #1 when she got cancer, and left wife #2 when she got MS.  Newt lost.  He'll lose in Florida, and he'll shrivel up.

RON PAUL - I don't think he'll win any states, but he'll get a percentage in every state.  He was good tonight.  I think his response on his age was great.

MITT ROMNEY - He tore Newt Gingrich apart.  Had the debate ended at the half-hour mark, I'd say he was going to coast to the nomination now.  He had a couple flounders in there, like backing away from an ad that was actually his, but he rolled with the punches and found ways to flip them back on his opponents.

RICK SANTORUM - One of his best debate performances.  His earnestness had an "I'll fight for the little guy" populism to it, especially when talking about manufacturing, or the clear love he has for his wife.  I think the anti-Romneys will wake up from their Newt stupor and some will shift back to Rick Santorum.

Fox News South Carolina GOP Debate

Yep, another one.

Questioners are Bret Baier, Gerald Seib, Kelly Evans and Juan Williams.

First question to NEWT GINGRICH, and Bret Baier didn't let him off lightly. Newt justifies his attacks on Mitt Romney so soon after he said the Republicans should stay positive and not savage each other. Of course, Newt said this when he was in first, but now that he's not, it's Earth-scorching time. Baier pushes Newt on it, and Newt keeps trying to say he's not attacking capitalism, it's just that Bain was evil. Reagan.

MITT ROMNEY responds, defends his record, and ends with how he'll defeat Barack Obama, which gets loud cheers from the audience. Baier moves on.

RICK PERRY is asked to defend his comment on "vulture capitalism." He says he visited a steel mill that Bain picked over and people lost jobs. Hey, I released my tax records. Mitt, you need to release yours. I think that's fair. As Republicans we cannot "fawr" our candidate in September. We need to know the answers now. Anyway, repeal Dodd-Frank; regulations are strangling us.

ROMNEY - We invested in that steel mill for 7-8 years.. China's dumping of cheap steel into our economy caused 40 mills to be closed. I will crack down on trade cheaters. BTW, we opened a new steel mill with new technologies on cheaters. I agree with him on regulations.

Next is Gerald Seib, who looks like the kind of guy found guilty of murder at the end of a CSI: Miami episode. He points out one instance where Bain made millions off a company that went bankrupt.

ROMNEY - That company was still open when I was at Bain. They bought another paper company down the road and consolidated. Every time we invest it, we try to grow the company, create jobs. You look at Staples and other companies, my record's pretty darn good. The prez has no job plan. I have a jobs plan and I'm not even president...yet.

Next is Kelly Evans, a hot brunette Wall Street Journal reporter. Asks Ron Paul about negative campaigning.

RON PAUL - If you're exposing a voting record, it's quite proper. I did one on Santorum where I couldn't get everything in that I wanted. He was for NCLB, Sarb-Ox, prescription drug benefits, etc.

RICK SANTORUM - He's getting some of his quotes from CREW, a left-wing George Soros organization. I'd repeal No Child Left Behind now.

Juan Williams asks Santorum about personal attacks.

SANTORUM - I've run a strong positive campaign. Romney's Super-PAC put out an ad saying I support felons voting. I would ask Romney right here, does he support felons who've served their time, fulfill their sentences get to be able to vote?

ROMNEY - First of all I can't tell Super-PACs what--

SANTORUM - Just answer the question.

ROMNEY - I'll get there. I would hope Super-PACs who have anything inaccurate would remove those or correct those. As for felons voting, it says you did that?

SANTORUM - Just answer. I voted to restore voting rights to felons who've repaid their debt to society. This is MLK Day. I was supporting that becuz of the disproportionate amount of African-Americans who go to jail and lose their rights.

ROMNEY - I don't believe violent criminals should ever regain their vote.

SANTORUM - Interesting. In Massachusetts, the law was that not only could violent criminals could vote while on parole let alone after they served their time. If you're going to have someone criticize me for supporting that, why didn't you change that in Mass?

ROMNEY - I had an 85% Democratic legislature. I could nto get many changes that I wanted to, and I did not send anyone to criticize you, I have no control over Super-PACs. I've had some outrageous, inaccurate accusations made against me by Super-PACs...

SANTORUM - I want to keep talking. Your Super-PAC was inaccurate in attacking me and if I had a Super-PAC doing that, I'd say stop it!

PERRY - Here's a great example of the insiders up here having a conversation. These should be state decisions.

ROMNEY - I agree; this should be at a state level. I agree with Ron Paul about the mistakes Santorum's made in his voting. He voted against right-to-work becuz he said his state was against it. I was in a state that wanted felons to be able to vote. Same thing.

Commercials.

Baier asks Romney about previous Huntsman quotes, asks Twitter question about how can they trust Romney to not change his positions again.

ROMNEY - I get asked this, and it's usually on my position on abortion. When I saw those embryos that would destroyed, I wrote an op-ed saying I was pro-life and I served as a pro-life governor. I've always been against gay marriage but I am for equal rights. I believe Obama is turning us into a European socialist state, I want to restore America. I believe in this country, I will fight for its values.

Juan asks Perry about SC's new law on voter registration. Are you suggesting that on MLK Day, the fed has no business investigating election laws in a state where minorities were once not allowed to vote?

PERRY - I'm saying the state of Texas is under assault from the fed govt, and SC is at war with this fed govt. At war! This administration is "at war!" with churches. This admin is out of control.

Bret asks about national debt and extending unemployment benefits.

SANTORUM - I don't support extending benefits to 99 weeks. When you're that far away from a job, you lose skills. I believe, like welfare reform, we send it back to the states, give them flexibility to implement their programs. We're not doing people any favors by keeping them on unemployment for long periods of time.

((When I was laid off in 2004, they explained to me unemployment lasted 26 weeks, but I believe that was state unemployment; I never got federal unemployment that I know of. There must've been significant changes in the law since.))

GINGRICH - All unemployment compensation should be tied to job-training. The help we should give should be connected to a business run. 99 weeks is an Associate degree. It tells you everything about the difference between Obama and the five of us. We actually think work is good. We think maximizing dependency is terrible for this country.

Kelly asks about some European downgrades.

ROMNEY - We want to keep our financial insitutions running, but we've learned some lessons. We can't give the prez a blank check choosing and picking which friends or which industries he wants to save. It's time for us to recognize that the free enterprise system works. The best way to get the US economy going to push govt out of it. Our tax rates are too high, our regulations are too burdensome, we have an energy policy that doesn't take advantage of our resources. This prex has opened up no new markets. That's the answer, not bailouts.

Gerald asks Paul about defense spending cuts that would cost SC military jobs.

PAUL - Your question suggests you're very confused about my position. I want to cut money. I want to close bases overseas, maybe have more bases here. The military is behind me more than the others. I get twice as much money from active-duty military than the other four combined.

You call for pulling military spending to 2006 levels, that would cut jobs.

PAUL - You still don't understand. There's a difference between military spending and defense spending. Building a military base in Baghdad bigger than the Vatican. You call that defense spending; I call that waste. We're supposed to be conservative. Spend less money!

Bret asks what is the highest federal income tax any American should have to pay.

PERRY - 20% flat tax. Keep it simple. ((Perry likes simple.))

SANTORUM - My highest would be 28%, same level as Reagan when he cut taxes. ((And raised them one year later.))

ROMNEY - I'd like to get it down to 25%. Right now it's 35%, paying more than 25% I'm against.

GINGRICH - I'd like to see flat tax of 15%.

PAUL - We should have the lowest tax and up until 1913 it was 0%. What's wrong with that? What our seniors are getting hit with is the inflation tax; let's see that zero.

Kelly asks again about tax records, since Romney never answered the question earlier.

ROMNEY - I looked at what's been done in past campaigns; the tradition has been to release them around April, tax-time. I'll keep my options open.

So you'll release them around April?

ROMNEY - That's probably what I'll do. ((Some murmurs from the audience on that one.))

Juan points out Romney's father was born in Mexico. ((Some boos just at the mention of Mexico.)) Aren't you alienating Latinos with your hardline stance on immigration and being against the Dream Act?

ROMNEY - Latinos like all people look at us an opportunity nation. This prez looks around and says "It could be worse." I can't believe saying that. The American people say it's gotta be better. As for immigration, I don't believe special privileges should be given to those who come illegally. We have to follow the law. I love legal immigrants.

Juan points out unemployment's 20% for blacks.

SANTORUM - A 2009 study showed 3 things can be done to avoid poverty: work, graduate high school, and get married before you have children. ((Applause from audience.)) It's a huge opportunity for us, but what is Obama doing? He has a policy targetted at at-risk youth, regulating that marriage can no longer promote marriage to young girls, they can no longer teach abstinence. This admin is deliberately telling organizations to not tell girls what good choices are.

Juan points out blacks, jailed 4 times more than white, are usually arrested for drug charges.

PAUL - There is a disparity. With blacks, they're arrested disproportionately, they're tried and convicted disproportionately, they suffer the consequence of the death penalty disproportionately. Rich white people don't get the death penalty very often. ((Would've loved to see Perry's face right then. He loves the death penalty.)) The drug war unfairly hits the minority. MLK would agree with me on the drug war and foreign wars. ((Faint applause.))

Juan asks Gingrich about his quote on how blacks should demand job not food stamps, poor people's work ethic, and his quote about having kids be janitors. Can't you see how this is insulting?

GINGRICH - No, I don't see that. ((Applause.)) My daughter's first job was a janitor. She liked working and getting paid. I've had fifty people write me about their first jobs at 11,12,13. What I tried to say, Joe Klein pointed this out to me, union janitors in NYC are paid an absurd amount of money. You could hire thirty kids for the cost of one janitor. Only the elites despise earning money. ((Applause.))

My question's on work ethic. Are your comments not intended to belittle the poor and racial minorities? ((Boos.)) You called Obama the food-stamp president. It sounds like you're intentially belittling people. ((More boos. Boos for the black guy asking about racism on MLK Day.))

GINGRICH - More people have gone on food stamps under Obama than any prez in history. I know the politically correct don't like facts that are uncomfortable. Obama hasn't done anything that's really helped the poor. ((Wild, rousing applause. People clinking beer mugs, a guy strumming his upright bass in the corner, square-dancing in the mezzanine, etc.))

Bret asks Paul about foreign policy. You said you were against the operation that killed OBL. You believe international law should have stopped from killing the man who committed the most heinous attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, the demon from hell who rose up with his bony hand and crushed the heart of America, the man who burned a flag while urinating on a Justin Bieber picture?

PAUL - No I didn't say that. After 9/11 I voted for the authority to go after him. My frustration was we didn't go after him. We used it as an excuse for nation building.

My question's on international law.

PAUL - We communicated with Pakistan on giving us KSM, and they handed him over. But when you don't respect the sovereignty of other nations, we keep bombing these countries trying to get our enemies, we reduce them to civil war, they're getting money from us to rebuild. It's a deeply flawed policy. When they waited ten years, I don't see why they couldn't have done it the way they did KSM. Say a Chinese dissident came here, we wouldn't endorse "Well, they can come over and bomb us trying to get him..." We wouldn't expect him. There are proper procedures. We keep digging bigger holes for ourselves. Iraq's getting worse, we're still in Afghanistan...

I understand. They found there were plans for further attacks. On this topic, GOP candidate Ron Paul would be far to the left of Barack Obama on hunting down terrorists. <>

PAUL - We captured Saddam Hussein. His country hung him, he had a trial. We gave Adolph Eichmann a trial. Why can't we question them first, get information?

Bret asks Gingrich about would he kill OBL even if it meant the end of relations of Pakistan.

GINGRICH - OBL plotted to bomb the USS Cole and killed 3100 Americans on 9/11. He was not a Chinese dissident. His analogy is "utterly" irrational. When you give a country billions and you learn they've been hiding the biggest terrorist in the world, you go in and bomb him. Now let's talk about Andrew Jackson. he had a clear-cut idea about America's enemies: kill them. ((Holy crap, did he just bring up the founder of the Democratic Party and notorious racist Indian-killer Andrew Jackson as a standard for 2012 foreign policy?))

PAUL - We ought to consider a Golden Rule in foreign policy. Don't do to other nations what we wouldn't want them to do to us. ((Ongoing boos.)) This idea that we can't debate foreign policy, we just need to start another war. These people can't wait to start another war. We should quit the ones we're in! ((Applause.))

Bret asks Romney about negotiating with the Taliban.

ROMNEY - Of course not. Newt's right. Take out our enemies whereever they are. These people declared war on us. They killed Americans. We go where they are and kill them. OBL recived the right course of action, a bullet to the head. The Taliban is killing Americans. Obama announced the date of our withdrawal. He announced the date he wants to pull out altogether and now he wants to negotiate? We're under attack. The right way is to have a military so strong that no one would think of testing it. We do not negotiate with the Taliban when they're killing American soliders. We need to streghten the Afghan military force.

Bret asks how Santorum would deal with Syria.

SANTORUM - Obama's been as bad as possible. He props up this dictator which endangers Israel. We need to rally the international community, remove Assad, I don't support us going in, but us supporting policy that would remove him.

Bret brings up Turkey. Do they still belong in NATO?

PERRY - Turkey's ruled by Islamic terrorists, it's time to cut off all foreign aid to them. Do they have America's best interest? They were an ally in the 1970's. We need a prez who will stand up to Turkey and Syria and Iran and let them know we need to be dealt with. I served my country in the Air Force. When our Sec of Defense call what those Marines did ((urinating on the corpses)) "utterly despicable", I'll tell you what's despicable, those people who cut Danny Pearl's head off!

PAUL - I too served in the military from 62 to 68. i was in the Afghan/Pakistan region. Let me tell you something, the Taliban were our allies when they were fighting Russia. The Taliban is against foreigners. It's al-Qaeda who wants to come here and kill us, let's not confuse the two.\

Kelly asks Romney about the NDAA. Would he have signed it as written?

ROMNEY - Yes I would have. ((Boos.)) If you join a group that wants to kill Americans, that's treason. I disagree with the prez on a lot but I have faith he will not abuse this power. I would not abuse that power. You have elect someone with the values and character to not abuse it. Our military is shrinking. We're not giving our veterans the benfits they deserve.

SANTORUM - Whines about time, invokes habeas corpus, says the NDAA should not have passed. You should have the right to go to court.

PAUL - We're going in the wrong direction of our liberties. The Patriot Act wiped out the 4th Amendment. Now we have a policy of pre-emptive war where we don't have to declare war, this NDAA is major. It says an American citizen can be held indefinitely by the military. Don't give up on our American judicial system so easily, I beg of you.

PERRY - We need to cut the tax rate down where people feel comfortable investing. That's why I support 20% flat tax. Does his Timothy Geitner line again. Pull back regulations! They're strangling jobs. Let's pass a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Kelly says so you wouldn't do anything to help tyhe housing market?

PERRY - I think I just said two things that are pretty powerful.

Gerald asks Romney about Social Security.

ROMNEY - I won't touch for anyone 55 or older. I'm sure the Democrats will start showing ads of Republicans throwing old people off of cliffs ((laughs)) but don't forget Obama cut $500 billion from Medicare to pay for Obamacare. I'd lower the rate of inflation growth for higher-income recipients. I'd raise the retirement age a year or two. Repeal Obamacare.

Gerald asks Gingrich about his SS plan, which includes privatization. But you said the givt would pay the difference if the private account doesn't pay what it would have if stayed in SS. Is that really a free market solution?

GINGRICH - I'm a historian. Anyway, in Galveston TX and Chile, they tried this and it works. These are historic facts. it gets the govt out of telling you when to retire. It makes every American an investor.

SANTORUM - We need to keep American jobs, not ship them off like the mills here were. The foreign competition is cheaper to do business, but it's because of govt taxes and regulation. Make the little guys pay the same as the big guys. I want to make a point about mitt's plan. it's not bold, and Newt's is not responsible. We're running a deficit in SS. Our debt would go up by hundreds of billions. We'd have to borrow more from China. First balance the budget. Privatize SS now is fiscal insanity, and Romney's not bold.

GINGRICH - The plan on my website shows we'll deal with 185 bureaucracies that deal with low-income Americans, consolidate and send back to the states. It's a sound plan, and I say that as someone who balanced the budget four years in a row.

SANTORUM - We can't do that now due to the deficit.

GINGRICH - As someone who baolanced the budget four times, I'm confident I can make it work w/o balancing the budget.

ROMNEY - Rick is right. It's going to be tough to get our budget balanced and our deficit cut. We should allow people to have a voluntary savings account.

Juan asks Romney about his 2nd amendment record. Signed assault-weapons ban in Massachusetts, increased fees on gun owners 400%.

ROMNEY - In my state we had legislation drafted by pro-gun and anti-gun lobbies. The pro-gun folks liked some of the pieces in it and supported. We found common ground. I believe in gun rights.

Have you gone hunting since you talked about hunting "varmints."

ROMNEY - I've been elk hunting and pheasant hunting. I'm not the serious hunter Perry is.

Perry swells with pride.

Juan asks Santorum about his anti-gun votes.

SANTORUM - Sometimes you have to pass something so they won't pass soemthing much worse. I have an A+ record with the NRA. Contrast that with Paul, I protected gun manufacturers. We banned those lawsuits. Paul voted against that bill; he would have wiped out the 2nd Amendment.

PAUL - Hardly. You don't have national tort law, that should be at the state level. I'm trying to repeal gun bans. That's an overstretch.

SANTORUM - I need to respond. W/o a natl bill, people would have gone to Massachusetts or New York and sued the gun manufacturers out of existance.

PAUL - This is how our Constitution gets nibbled away. Tort law should be a state's issue.

Gerald asks Gingrich about his support of China's one-child law.

GINGRICH - It's "explicitly" a falsehood. It's an absurdity. It'd be nice if Romney would display leadership and call his former colleagues running his Super-PAC to take inaccuracies off the air.

ROMNEY - I said in our last debate that any Super-PAC, whether it's supporting me or supporting you, should take flasehoods off the air. Now I can't contact them directly because that would be against the law. Is that correct?

GINGRICH - Absolutely.

ROMNEY - Alright, so I can't do what you just asked me to do. ((Upper cut!)) I can say publicly I hope any Super-PAC that has falsehoods would remove them from the air. Now, Newt, you have a Super-PAC running an ad with the biggest hoax since Bigfoot. This ad is entirely false, this documentary describes events I had nothing to do with. To imply we have different standards is not quite right.

GINGRICH - I've called on them publicly to edit them. I would hope you'd call on yours to do the same.

ROMNEY - Look, we'd all like to get rid of Super-PACs to tell you the truth. Let people donate what they want to campaigns, let candidates be responsible for their own words. McCain-Feingold was a disaster. ((Applause. Except at the McCain household.)) We don't want this strange situation where we can't control what ads our supporters put up.

Kelly says border crossing is at a 40-year low.

PERRY - The reason it's at a 40-year low is becuz of this economy. I've spent 11 years dealing with this issue. Americans wants us to spend the money to secure the border.

GINGRICH - I'd get rid of No Child Left Behind. The correct answer is to "radically" reduce the Dept of Education and send it back to the states.

And that's it.

So how'd they do?

5. RICK PERRY - Wants to put a chip on his shoulder and go kick dirt on the shoes of Iran and Syria and Turkey. Wants South Carolina to secede so Texas can follow. Kept using phrases like "under assault" and "at war." Even more he said "taxes" and "regulation" about twenty times each. No reason for him to still be there.

4. MITT ROMNEY - There were times he had cool, confident answers. Other times he was knocked on his heels and tried to hedge his answers and leave himself wiggle room. He's the front-runner, he'll be the biggest target. But his tax-return answer was weak, and his support of the NDAA made my jaw drop. He's still alandslide front-runner, but if I were him, I'd start backing out of some of these debates. We've had a ton.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - He did really well in the room, but when you look at his answers, my goodness. Doubled down on making kids the janitors of their own schools, somehow made janitors sound like some overpaid elitist union job, and his outrage over the Super-PAC was muted by Romney's responses. And his Andrew Jackson line... staggering. And yet crowd reaction would suggest he won. Fox News seems to think it'll help Gingrich move up in the polls. I can only shake my head.

2. RICK SANTORUM - Showed toughness against Romney, against Gingrich, against Paul. Don't know why he thought saying that making the little guy pay as much as the big guys would be an applause line. I don't see why people who've supported him to this point would abandon him now.

1. RON PAUL - Sounds like the only guy who wants to reverse the course of our neverending military-industrial complex. The crowd booed him more than anyone else, and yet, what doesn't fly in South Carolina flies in other parts of the country. I don't agree with him on everything, but I really wish some of his attitudes would catch on with the other candidates.

ABC New Hampshire Debate

7:00 - "The stakes couldn't be higher." Sure they could. You could say the two that do the worst will be thrown into an alligator pit. Them's higher stakes.

7:02 - Oh dear. Diane Sawyer is using that same patronizing tone explaining the rules she used in the last debate. Was she completely shielded from all criticism last time?

7:03 - Romney says Obama taking credit for job creation is like the rooster taking credit for the sun rise.

7:04 - Santorum says we need a leader and says no one has more experience in dealing with Iraq than he does. Of our enemies, "if they cross us, they should fear us." Santorum says we need a Commander-in-Chief, not a manager. The CiC is not a CEO. [Quick trivia note: Santorum was a lawyer until he was first elected to Congress at age 32.]

7:05 - Romney wipes out Santorum by trying to marginalize him as a manager.

7:06 - George Stephanopoulos quotes some of negative things about Bain Capital to Newt Gingrich. Newt dances around the answer, promotes the New York Times' acrticle that profiled a company that still failed under Bain. Newt says "the New York Times" four times. I had no idea he was such a fan.

7:07 - Mitt says he can understand why the NYT would demonize capitalism but is surprised "some people on this stage" would do the same thing. This is a free enterprise system.

7:09 - Jon Huntsman: "Scrutinize our records. Especially look at what the governors did."

7:11 - There's Huntsman, Paul and Romney on the left side of the stage, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry on the right. If the right side of the stage all dropped out, I'd be happy. Kind of annoyed that Buddy Roemer isn't allowed to be here but Perry is, as Roemer was actually ahead of Perry in a couple NH polls.

7:12 - George asks Paul about a quote where he called Santorum corrupt. Paul says he was quoting from a survey that found Santorum to be one of the most corrupt in DC due to how much money he took from lobbyists. Ooooh. Quotes the different big-government moves Rick made in the Senate, doubling the size of the Dept. of Education, and after he left office, he became a highly-paid, high-powered lobbyist.

7:14 - Santorum: "The group that called me corrupt was CREW, and if you haven't been sued by CREW, you're not a conservative, and you should know better than to cite George Soros-backed organizations. I'm not a libertarian; I do believe in some government. You put your own earmarks in bills." Rick's fighting back against Ron's charges quite effectively.

7:16 - Paul: "I vote against big spending. You vote for big spending, you're a big-government spender, not a conservative. Someone has to point out your record."

7:17 - Santorum: You're wrong about my record.

7:18 - Perry: This is why I got in this race. I am the only one, cept maybe Huntsman, who is an outsider of the culture of DC. Calls Paul a hypocrite for putting earmarks in spending bills and then voting on the bills.

7:19 - Paul: "I call it being a Constitutionalist. You designate every penny. Congress has more responsibility. Back to Santorum, he voted to raise the debt ceiling five times. What's your excuse?"

7:20 - Santorum: "I worked on welfare reform, tried to reform Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare."

Santorum and Paul are saying the opposite things about Rick's record. What is the truth?

7:21 - Huntsman: Being CiC is more than this political insider gobblety-gook we just heard. It's about being a leader. We need leadership that can be trusted. The American people don't trust their leaders. Everybody knows Congress needs term limits.

7:22 - Diane Sawyer asks Romney to respond to Huntsman's claim he'd speak best for the US. Romney: "Well, he'd be better than Obama, let's put it that way."

The occasional compliment to your opponent goes a long way with many voters.

7:25 - Josh McElveen points out Perry and Paul have military experience, asks Perry if military experience helps with being CiC. The prez shrinking the Dept of Defense will put Americans in danger.

7:27 - Gingrich points out his dad was in the military, he feels for veterans. I have a pretty good sense of what veteran families need.

7:28 - Paul: "People who get 3,4,5 deferrments have no right to send our kids to war. At least I went when I was called up. If you add up all the contractors and soldiers, etc., we've lost 8500 Americans in these two wars. Rick keeps bringing up "libertarian" but I am talking about the Constitution. It bothers me when we keep sending kids off to war, especially when many of these leaders got out of it when it would have been their time.

7:30 - Newt: "Ron has a long history of saying things that are inaccurate and false. I never asked for a deferrment. I personally resent the slander. I was married with a child at the time."

7:31 - Paul: "When I was drafted, I had a wife and two kids, and I went." (Applause.) George then asks him about the racist newsletter. "You're asking about something 20 years ago that I didn't write, it's a distraction. Let's talk about my work in race relations." Rattles of several stats about racial inequality, especially in selective law enforcement.

Commercials!

7:38 - George asks Romney if he thinks states have the right to ban contraception. Romney says no state wants to, and if he were governor, he'd veto it. George gets testy with Mitt about his answer, which prompts the crowd to jeer George. Mitt gets a laugh when he says "Leave it alone, contraception's working just fine." Paul then plugs the 4th Amendment for privacy rights.

7:40 - Santorum agrees with Mitt that Roe v. Wade should be overturned.

Diane Sawyer then takes forever to plug a Yahoo! question, aaking what your solution is for gay couples if they're against gay marriage. Newt talks about hospital visitation rights but says it's a huge jump to change the definition of the sacrament of marriage.

7:42 - Huntsman says civil unions are fair, that he's a traditionalist with marriage, but he believes in reciprical benefits rights.

7:43 - Josh asks Santorum about gay adoption. Santorum says it's a states-rights issue, but believes marriage is a federal issue, but will not seek any federal law about adoption. "What about those 1800 couples who are already married?" Santorum wants a Constitutional Amendment to define marriage, and therefore the Constitution would say they aren't married.

7:48 - Romney's for state-level benefits to same-sex couples but still wants the definition of marriage to be between a man and a woman.

7:49 - Newt points out the media bias and says how come we're never asked about the bias and bigotry against the Catholic Church? (Applause.)

7:50 - Mitt agrees with what Newt just said.

7:51 - George asks Paul about a possible 3rd-party run. Paul says he doesn't like absolutes, but he has no plans to run as 3rd party candidate.

7:52 - Perry brings up Obama's "war on religion."

7:53 - Huntsman rattles off all of the successes of the US military, and therefore for Afghanistan, it's time to bring our troops home. Mitt waffles on the topic. Huntsman comes back strongly, says the president makes the decision.

7:55 - Newt says we're asking the wrong questions, talks about Pakistan, Libya, we're underestimating all the problems. We need a "fundamentally" new strategy but it's not primarily a military problem.

7:56 - Santorum: "We need a strong president, and Obama's made the wrong decision at every turn, on Iran, on Libya, on Syria" etc. Calls out Huntsman for wanting to leave Afghanistan. Huntsman: "How long do you want to wait?" Santorum: "As long as it takes."

7:58 - Perry: "I would send troops back to Iraq." Says our withdrawal from Iraq as kowtowing to Obama's leftist liberal base. Every soldier that lost their life did so for nothing becuz of this president. Iran's moving in literally at the speed of light.

7:59 - Mitt counters with a more intelligent take on Iraq. Paul says he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon but we vote for a president, not a king. Congress has to declare war, but we went into Afghanistan and Iraq, and they want to go to Syria and can't wait to bomb Iran. Our policy may be well-intended but it has bad consequences.

8:00 - Santorum gives some neocon argument.

Commercials!

8:08 - Romney's asked about roads and bridges, Mitt spins it to a private-sector vs. public-sector argument, praises the entrepreneurial spirit of the American people. Says Obama wants to turn us into a European-style welfare state.

8:09 - Newt says we can't compete with China if we have poor infrastructure. I would have an energy plan that frees us from Iran and Venezuela. If you don't have a systematic infrastructure program, you can't compete.

8:11 - Huntsman says governors know how to pay the bills. He'd strip all loopholes and deductions from tax codes to the tune of $1 trillion.

8:13 - Santorum says he'd keep five deductions - health care, housing, pensions, children and charities. The other side is I'd cut corporate taxes in half, but I'd shrink manufacturing taxes to zero.

8:16 - George asks Mitt "Why not go to zero?" Mitt says of course we need taxes, but the spending keeps going up, we need to shrink government, lower taxes.

Diane Sawyer's starting to remind me of Jessica Lange's character on American Horror Story.

8:19 - Paul goes on his stump rant about the Federal Reserve, ecomonic bubbles, cutting spending, "you can't keep bailing out the debt." There's no plan.

8:20 - Perry: There is a plan! Create jobs! Allow our energy resources to be used, lower regulations.

8:22 - Huntsman brings up how Utah was #1 in job growth while Massachusetts was 47th for the 2nd time tonight. I sense a slight impatience from the audience. Jon boasts again he will get rid of all loopholes and tax deductions

8:24 - George asks Romney where he agrees with Huntsman, and Mitt respectfully declines it and asks himself a question of his own and proceeds to answer it.

8:26 - Newt says he's sure Obama's sincere about his desire to change us to a radical socialist European economy. (Laughs.)

8:28 - Santorum says Republicans should shrink from a phrase Mitt Romney used: "middle class." There are no classes in America. They may be middle income people. It's Obama's job to divide, separate.

8:30 - Romney: "My plan is broader than tax policy." Goes on about America's goods, trading. "We have to do something about regulations."

8:32 - Huntsman said it's nonsense to think you can slap a tariff on China your 1st day in office, as Mitt would do.

8:33 - Mitt: "Jon, you spent the last two years implementing the policies of Obama while the rest of us were trying to get Republicans elected." Romney said he'd tell China they have to play by the rules.

8:34 - Huntsman: Rattles off some Chinese, says what Mitt is advocating might get an applause line, but it would lead to a trade war.

Commercials!

George: What would you be doing on a Saturday night if you weren't running for president?

Perry - I'd be at the shooting range.

Newt - I'd be watching the college basketball championship game.

Santorum - *football*

Newt - Football, right. Sorry.

Santorum - I'd be with my family watching the game.

Romney - Football.

Paul - I'd be reading an economic textbook.

Huntsman - I'd be calling my two boys in the US Navy.

Diane Sawyer thanks us all for watching and to the candidates.

We're done!

We go to Jake Tapper first, and he says we were waiting to see if anyone would lay a glove on Romney, and no one really did. David Muir says the Romney camp is thrilled. Donna Brazile said Democrats think Romney's the weakest of the six candidates. (You know she's lying.) Mary Mataline has clearly had plastic surgery. Okay, that's enough. So how'd they do?

6. RICK PERRY - His first real answer, he tried to tie "hypocrisy" to Ron Paul, which doesn't work. Then he tried to say he wants to put troops back in Iraq, and that Iranians can move at the speed of light. He seemed to be answering as if he was in front of South Carolina voters. "I'd be at the shootin' range."

5. NEWT GINGRICH - The only time we saw his trademark petulant anger was when it was directed at Ron Paul or the bias against the Catholic Church. He debated like a man who knew he'd done horrible damage to his campaign with his nasty concession speech in Iowa. His pandering answer at the end was a flame-out.

4. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed to bring it and he was just okay. He did seem like the most willing to go against Romney, but nothing really stuck. His tax plan didn't seem that great to boast about when compared to Santorum's.

3. RON PAUL - Strong at times, doddering at other times. Those who love his foreign policy tend to hate his domestic policy. Those who love his domestic policy tend to hate his foreign policy. Then there are the libertarians who love both. Paul poked gaping holes in Santorum's claims, and he drew the ire of Santorum and Gingrich.

2. RICK SANTORUM - I hate to say it, but he did pretty well in his new position as the NotRomney. He was able to give longer answers to questions, got more questions, and his supporters are the kind that appreciate his digs against Ron Paul. His nitpicking over "middle class" versus "middle income" was just stupid, but his neocon arguments and his social conservative stances probably help him greatly in South Carolina.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Thanks for coming to the debate, guys. It's been great getting to know you all, and you're all fine individuals. Each of you has some good in you, has issues that I'd agree with. Oh, you're going to attack me directly? Let me slap you down with a smile. This nomination's mine, and there's nothing you can do about it. And none of you will be my vice-presidential pick, but it's cute to see you try.

Romney, Santorum win Iowa caucus

99% of the vote is in.  Too close to call.  I'm going to bed.

Thoughts on the Iowa Caucus results:

- Jon Huntsman all but insulted Iowa and he still got 742+ votes. Good for him.

- Michelle Bachmann's concession speech was tired and lackluster. She could barely muster an accent when slamming Obama's failed Socialist policies. No candidate has ever won the Ames straw poll only to come in as low as sixth in the caucus. If she doesn't drop out tomorrow, it's because she wants to be in one more debate.

- Rick Perry was sunny in defeat. He read some fanmail and seemed genuinely touched. It also appears like he's going to drop out.

- Newt Gingrich was a complete prick during his concession speech. Blustery, cranky, hypocritical, it reminded me of everything I disliked about him. He blasted negative ads from Mitt Romney while he's planning his own negative-ad campaign blitz tomorrow, but those are only "telling the truth." He slammed Ron Paul's foreign policy as "stunningly" dangerous, and he gushed over Rick Santorum. Newt made it clear he will do whatever he can to support Santorum and stop Romney if he can't win it himself. Newt's going to go down scorched-Earth style. Expect a whisper campaign in South Carolina about Mormons being secret satanists.

- Ron Paul finished in the top three, but darned if I could find anyone talking about on any of the channels as I flipped around.

- Rick Santorum... I do like how he's trying to put a spotlight on manufacturing jobs, but really, I have only this to say to the Iowa GOP: "You have got to be kidding me!"

- Mitt Romney had said for months he wasn't going to compete in Iowa, did not participate in the Ames straw poll, and yet when he decided to go ahead and compete, he may have pulled off the win. The vote's so close it doesn't really matter that much if he actually won or not. Top two was good enough. And now John McCain is going to endorse Romney to help curb this Santorum nonsense. Meanwhile, it's shrewd to have Ann introduce Mitt. She's one of his biggest assets. Mitt's gracious to Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in his speech, and he gives a good one, feels like he's taken bits and pieces from other stump speeches.

- UPDATE: Romney won by 8 votes.

Iowa Caucus Tomorrow

The last poll I saw had the top three as Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, all within 5 points of each other.  The next three were Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.  Jon Huntsman is not participating and has even dissed Iowa, but I'm sure he'll get a vote or two.

So how's the weather?

If Mitt Romney wins, it's over.  He'll get New Hampshire, and then South Carolina will throw up a roadblock, but then Mitt will get Florida, and that's all she wrote.

If Ron Paul wins, heads will explode.  We'll hear more about Ron Paul being a racist because of his newsletter.  We'll hear as president, he would roll over so Iran can pet his tummy, and he won't lift a finger when (not if, when!) Iran annihilates Israel.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum wants to attack Iran now.  Not in January 2013.  Now!  If Santorum wins, I propose the GOP come together and face facts, that Iowa needs to stop going first.  Give it to Missouri or Ohio.  Personally I think it should rotate every four years the order of the states having their primaries/caucuses.  Have a lotto every four years, the spring after the election.  Gives each state plenty of time to prepare.

Paul up in Iowa, Mitt up in New Hampshire

Nate Silver's awesome 538 blog has current projections as follows for the state caucuses and primaries. Obviously numbers change every few days but it's interesting to see where things stand right now.

IOWA

Ron Paul - 25.4%
Mitt Romney - 21.1%
Newt Gingrich - 15.5%
Rick Perry - 13.8%
Michele Bachmann - 10.9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Mitt Romney - 36.5%
Ron Paul - 19.9%
Newt Gingrich - 19.1%
Jon Huntsman - 13.5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA

Newt Gingrich - 37.9%
Mitt Romney - 23.2%
Ron Paul - 10.2%
Michele Bachmann - 9.8%
Rick Perry - 7.4%

FLORIDA

Newt Gingrich - 48.4%
Mitt Romney - 26.4%
Ron Paul - 7%
Rick Perry - 5.4%
Michele Bachmann - 5.3%

It's now a three-candidate race, although at this point I would not bet against Mitt Romney getting the nomination.  I would also point out that not in a single state does Rick Santorum appear in the top five.  Hopefully after he comes in sixth in Iowa, he drops out.  In fact, whoever finishes fifth in Iowa between Perry and Bachmann should drop out too.  Huntsman should stay in until New Hampshire, but if he can't crack the top three there, time for him to go too.

Fox News Iowa Debate

Fox doesn't have a three-minute Michael Bay trailer for the upcoming debate. Must've learned from CNN's overkill.

First question to Newt Gingrich by Bret Baier. Republicans say you're smart, a big thinker, but worry deeply about your electability, saying Mitt Romney is the safer choice. Newt compares himself to Reagan. Baier then brings up how Mitt called him an "unreliable" conservative. Newt then touts his record for 30 years of conservatism, balanced budgets, got Republicans to majority for first time in 40 years. [Single-handedly!]

Megyn Kelly then asks Ron Paul how he could possibly win the nomination and will he pledge tonight to not run as third party. Paul says just about anyone on stage would be better than Obama. She then asks Rick Santorum why he's "failed to catch fire" with voters. "Well, we hope to catch fire with voters in Iowa..." and then he spins off to his usual talking points.

Chris Wallace says "many of our viewers" say they're supporting Newt over you (Mitt Romney) because he's tougher; what say you? Mitt talks about how government doesn't create jobs; the private sector does. I know from my work in the private sector, from my successes and failures, how to make this economy work.

Wallace then asks Michelle Bachmann about the perception that she's too conservative. She touts her across-the-board appeal.

Neil Cavuto asks Rick Perry about his debate skills. Rick Perry says he's having fun and he can't wait to debate Obama; he'll show up early! He then compares himself to Tim Tebow. I'm not kidding.

Cavuto then almost sarcastically asks Jon Huntsman about why he won't sign the tax pledge. Huntsman says he won't sign any silly pledges, and he won't attend a Donald Trump debate. He then pauses whith any eyebrow like he expected to get a pop from the crowd but it only brings polite applause. He soldiers on about the trust deficit in this country, says we're getting screwed as Americans, we need term limits and to stop Congress from filing on out and lobbying.

The problem with these debates is most of the answers are the same. If you missed the first twelve, they want to make sure you get to hear their talking point this time, goldarnit!

Baier then gives each candidate 30 seconds to answer: how would you answer possible govt shutdown?

Santorum - Do what leaders do, tell a narrative, we come together to solve problems. People voted for Obama in 2008 because they believed in him. Americans need a president who believes in them. [Good line.]

Perry - We can't have an on-the-job training president. I am appalled Congress came up with a super-committee. (Yeah, Republicans and Democrats came up with that gem, Rick...)

Romney - We need more than 30 seconds. What is leadership? I was governor of state with 85% Democrats. To get anything done, I had to get respect of Speaker. We need to have leader who knows how to lead. I've had four different leadership posts.

Gingrich - Leadership is key. When you have a "Saul Alinksy radical" acting as "Campaigner-in-Chief" the Constitution can't work under those conditions. I worked with Bill Clinton to get things done.

Paul - Two factions in DC. One wants warfare, one wants welfare. Get each to cut some so the other will cut some.

Bachmann - I would have called all 535 Congressmen to come in and sit down during debt crisis. "No new taxes!"

Huntsman - Touts his flat tax passing in Utah and how he almost got 80% of the vote in his re-election bid. (Yes, he was a popular governor.)

Commercials!

Chris Wallace asks Mitt about Newt's comment that Mitt should give his millions back from the companies he bankrupted.

Romney - It's a great opportunity for us, becuz Obama will use the same attack tactic. Yes, some failed, but if you look at all the businesses we worked with, more of them succeeded. In the real world, some things don't work. I've learned the lessons.

Chris then asks Newt about his $1.6 million from Freddie Mac. Newt says he actually asked for more regulation, said he was a private citizen, contrasts it with Chris Dodd getting sweetheart deals from Countrywide.

Paul - He has a different definition of the "private sector" than I have. [BAM!] Paul sides with Mitt. Says colluding of big government and big business leads to fascism. [Don't oversell it!]

Newt - Talk to people at credit unions; there are some good govt-sponsored programs. Medicare, Medicaid. "I did no lobbying of any kind for any organization." [WHAT?!?!]

Bachmann - We know he cashed paychecks from Freddie Mac, and I am shocked listening to him, defending Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, big difference between them and credit unions. The speaker had his hand out for $1.6 million and scammed senior members of Congress to keep the scam going. [BAM!]

Newt - What she just said is factually not true. I never lobbied in any way.

Bachmann - PolitiFact said everything I said was true. You took $1.6 million; you don't need to be in the technical definition of lobbying to be influence-peddling. It's shocking.

Newt - My policy is to break up Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. I never once changed my position becuz of payment. I only chose to work with people whose values I shared.

Cavuto asks Newt about Paul Ryan's budget plan, calling it "right-wing social enineering." Newt says we need to communicate to the American people, says he liked Mitt's adjustments to the Ryan plan. Cavuto asks if Romney would like to respond to that compliment.

Romney says "Thank you" and goes on to talk about our natl balance sheet, commends Wyden/Ryan for coming together.

Cavuto calls out Paul on putting in money for his own district in natl budgets. Paul says your question should also point out I've never voted for an earmark. I look at it like tax deductions. If they're there, sure I'll apply for them, but as president I'd want to get rid of them. This whole principle of budgeting is mixed up. Cavuto talks over Paul's applause to say you're trying to have your cake and eating it too. Paul says if everyone did what I did, there'd be no earmarks and the budget would be balanced.

Cavuto turns to Perry, quotes how he vetoed bills and kept spending under control, but according to an Austin paper, he was guilty of doing what he campaigned against? First of all, don't believe everything you read in the Austin paper [noticeable chill], and then goes back to Newt, says we need to overhaul Washington DC, and the idea that Newt can't tell the difference between lobbying and advising is telling, says we need a part-time Congress. 140 days every other year. (Applause.)

Cavuto turns to Huntsman. How would you respond to China's "childish" move of putting tariffs on American SUVs and luxury vehicles? Well, the problem's all over. It's part North Korea, part Iran, part Burma, etc. etc. Invite some Chinese dissdents to the embassy. We need shared values infused into the relationship. That's democracy, human rights, tolerance to religion, and so much more.

Cavuto asks Santorum if he'd support tax holiday. Yeah, we need to get our taxes down. I promise to repeal every single ObamaCare regulation.

Romney brings up Solyndra. Let markets guide the economy. I think manufacturing will come back, like Rick S. talks about. We have extraordinary energy potential in this country. Our president thinks this country is in decline. It is if he's president. It won't be if I'm president. (Big applause.)

Megyn Kelly questions Newt about wanting to subpoena judges for decisions they make. Does that ruin checks and balances. "The courts have become grotesquely dictatorial." [Your mission: use that phrase in casual conversation in the next 24 hours. Go!] They're "frankly arrogant" in their misreading of the American people. Just like Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln and FDR, I will take on the judiciary if it didn't restrict itself from what it was doing. Yes, he's compared himself to five presidents so far.

Kelly asks Bachmann about activist courts. [I notice at this point something looks different about Megyn Kelly. Hair? Make-up? Not sure.]

Bachmann says the Congress and the President need to take their authority back from the court system. We need to take the Constitution back. I'd only appoint judges who believe in the original intent of the Constitution. Paul says Congress can impeach, but I'd really question subpoenas against judges. Yes, this can be frustrating, but if you say you're going to get rid of courts becuz they didn't rule a way you like, that's a huge can of worms. Subpoenas against judges harms checks and balances.

Kelly then questions why Mitt appointed so many judges who were Democrats or independents. Mitt says he doesn't appoint judges, he nominates them. But he points out one of the most important jobs of the President is to appoint Supreme Court justices. he sides with Paul on questioning Congress subpoena judges, "becuz the only thing more screwed up than justices is Congress." (laughs from audience). We don't call it "we the judges" we call it "we the people." We can impeach, we can pass amendments. We have the ability to reign in activist judges.

Santorum - "I'm the only one on this panel that did it" referring to reigning in activist judges. Says his favorite current Supreme Court judge is Thomas.

Perry - Wants term limits on Supreme Court justices, these "unaccountable legislators in robes." Likes Alito, Roberts, Thomas. Pick one. kelly says "Would you pick one please?"

Romney - Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Scalia.

Newt - Agrees with Romney's list.

Paul - from my view they're all good and they're all bad. Our country split freedom up into two pieces - personal and economic. The judges and Congress thinks it's two issues.

Bachmann - Scalia tops my list. Also Roberts, Thomas, Alito.

Huntsman - I'm optimistic about this country becuz of the rule of law. Governors have experience selecting judges. I like Roberts and Alito.

Commercials!

Paul - My Iranian policy would be much better. There's no UN evidence of Iran getting a weapon. I fear another Iraq coming. War propaganda. I fear we'll get a prez who overreacts and bombs Iran. Even Israel says it wouldn't make any sense taking them out becuz they might have a weapon. What did we do with Libya? We talked them out of their nuclear weapon, and then we killed him. Baier pushes back. Paul says your question seems to be "When are we going to bomb Iran?"

Santorum says Iran is ruled by a radical theocracy, mutual assured destruction worked on the USSR, but Iran wants martyrdom. Their objective is to create a calamity; it's what their theology teaches. They hate us becuz of who we are and what we believe. We should be working with Israel right now in working on taking out Iran's facilities.

Baier asks Romney about how Obama asked Iran for our drone back. (Laughs from audience.) Mitt - "Timidity invites aggression from other people." Our foreign policy based on "pretty please"? (Chuckles from audience.) America has to lead the free world, and the free world has to lead the entire world. The right course for America is to strengthen our country, our values, our families, and our military.

Bachmann - Obama was given on a silver platter victory in Iraq, and he's chosen intentionally to lose the peace. "With all due respect" to Paul, I've never heard a more dangerous natl security answer . (Cheers and boos.) Iran will use a nuclear weapon to wipe Israel off the map. Their mission is to spread jihad across the world.

Paul - To say all Muslims are the same is dangerous. They don't want to kill us becuz of who we are; they want us to stop bombing them. Why do you want another war? Carelessly flouting.

Bachmann - Careless underreacting to let a madman to get a nuclear weapon. IEIA report says they're months away from getting a weapon.

Paul - That's not true. If you think today's a dangerous world, think of when I was drafted in 1962. Kennedy and Khruschev talked without nuclear war. This endless attitude of going to war everywhere.

Baier asks if Newt would leave the UN. No, but we could reduce our reliance on it. We have every obligation to tell the truth on how corrupt the UN bureaucracy is.

Huntsman - The UN serves a useful purpose in peacekeeping and some humanitarian work, but I hate the anti-Americanism, the anti-Israel sentiments. First, we need a new foreign policy. We're still trapped in the Cold War mentality. Our core here is weak. Our economy is broken. Second, (ding!) Baier: You're out of time. Huntsman makes his second point anyway. baier dings him again.

Perry - I've called for a no-fly zone over Syria. They're Iran's partner, they connected at the hip. This administration has badly bungled the Middle East. He led from behind in Libya. he was totally weak with Iran in asking for our drone back.

Cavuto asks Newt about Obama's opposition to the Keystone pipeline. Newt says I'm accused of using language that's too strong, so I've been standing here editing. (laughs). the Canadian PM has said if you don't want to create this pipeline, I'll put it straight west through Vancouver and ship it to China. I'm using mild words here. It's "utterly irrational" for Obama to kill American jobs and reduce our access to energy. It makes no sense to any rational American. (applause) Cavuto: "No offense, sir, but you didn't answer my question." Attach it to the middle-class tax-cut. We're not backing down when we're right and you're totally wrong.

Huntsman - There will always be a balancing act. We need to fuel our future. We need to get rid of our heroin-like addiction to imported oil. We need to disrupt the oil monopoly. We need a president who understands the delicate balance. [Felt like he danced aroudn that one.]

Bachmann - Obama's entire calculus is on re-election. The radical environmentalists threatened to not support him if he passed Keystone. As prez, I would've put Keystone online immediately.

Cavuto points out Perry gave $7 billion in tax savings to oil. Perry points out this is the anniversary of the signing of the Bill of Rights. I like the Tenth. If a state wants to put tax policies in place that makes them more competitive, that's their right. Giovt in DC shouldn't pick winners and losers. (But he's arguing that governors should be able to pick winners and losers.)

Commercials!

Megyn Kelly asks Perry about Operation Fast & Furious. So far no evidence Atty. Gnrl. Eric Holder knew about it. Are you politicizing this? Perry says if there's an operation like Fast & Furious and the atty general didn't know about it, he should re-sign immediately. I've been dealing with border issues for 11 years.

Santorum - Agrees Holder needs to go. There are jihadist trainign camps in central and south America, and we know they're planning attacks on the US. Obama has embraced scoundrels in central and south America, like Chavez and Ortega.

Kelly asks Romney about the 11 million illegals he said need to go to their country of origin first before becoming US citizens, but he also said we're not going to just round em up and ship em out. How does that work? We'll give them ID cards for those who come here legally. When they apply for a job, they need to show that job. newt's suggested something similar. You say to illegals you can't work here. You need to get in line.

Newt - We mostly agree on that, but someone whp's been here 25 years should get some consideration. I'd drop the fed lawsuits against states.

Huntsman - We don't need to pander. Pro-growth, strong values. these appeal to hispanics/Latinos. but look at the numbers of those coming across the borders. There's nothing to come for! We've got to secure the borders, of course, but let's not lose sight of the fact that legal immigration is pro-growth for this country. Remake our visa system. This is an economic development opportunity.

Chris Wallace, whom Joe Scarborough said loathes Mitt Romney, asks this question: "You've changed your position in the last 10 years on abortion, on gay rights, on guns, you say keeping an open mind is a strength, but some of your critics say every one of these moves is to your political advantage, when you were running in MA you took liberal positions, now running for president you take conservative positions. Is that principle or is it just politics?" [Wow, Chris, really?] Mitt takes exception to your list there. I've been the same on gay rights. On abortion I changed my mind. I studied the issue. I've learned over time, like Reagan and HW Bush, where I've been wrong, I've changed my mind. I've always been for the 2nd Amendment. Chris in gotcha question mode lists off positions on gay rights, abortion, gun rights. Romney defends each position, and by the end you can tell he's a little upset with Chris. [Shorter Mitt: I'm going to be the nominee, Chris, and you can't stop me.]

Chris then asks Santorum if he's persuaded. [Eye roll.] Might as well have said, "Rick, attack Romney for me." Santorum points out only the governor and legislature can change marriage law. Mitt had choice to go with "the court or the Constitution." He chose the court. He personally handed out gay-marriage licenses. We're not talking about discrimination, we're talking about securing values.

Mitt - That's a very novel interpretation of what the MA Supreme Court did. I fought to put in a amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman. I've been a champion of protecting traditional marriage.

Chris Wallace asks Bachmann about abortion. She says the GOP can't get the issue of life wrong. Newt said he'd campaign for Republicans who were for partial-birth abortion.

Newt - Sometimes Bachmann gets her facts wrong.

Bachmann - I think it's outrageous to say I don't have my facts right when as a matter of fact, I do. I am a serious candidate for the presidency. [If you have to say it...] Gingrich said it.

Newt - I don't see how you're going to govern if you're going to run around trying to figure out who to purge.

Baier mentions 11th Commendment from Reagan while some audience member complains he hasn't asked about the Federal Reserve.

Santorum - We have a responsibility to vet the candidates. Let's find out who can stand up.

Perry - There was an NFL player said if you're not getting your tail kicked, you're not playing at a high-enough level. I'd like to thank these folks on stage for letting me play at a high-enough level.

Romney - We can take it. Obama's going to have a billion dollars to go after me or whoever the nominee is.

Gingrich - If you look at my website, my debates, I go to the American people with big ideas. These six are friends of mine, and all would be a better president than Obama.

Paul - The media has a responsibility and we have a responsibility. We have to get this information out. There are some things below the belt. I don't like taking things out of context. If we disagree on an issue, we should expose it.

Bachmann - It's the same with Reagan. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Unquestionably we're worse off under Obama.

Huntsman - I actually worked for Reagan. Debate is good. It must be respectful and vigorous. It will lead to trust. This type of debate will elevate the nominee.

And that's a wrap!

So.... how'd they do...

　

　

7. RICK SANTORUM - He had one good line but otherwise was irrelevant on the stage. Most of his questions were about other candidates. Rick can boast he's been to every county in Iowa, but it's never he's stuck in sixth, in front of the only candidate who's said he's not competing in Iowa and only comes for the debates.

6. JON HUNTSMAN - He may be in Iowa, but he's debating to show New Hampshire he's their guy. I don't think he did enough to stand out. He needed to increase momentum, and this felt like a wheel-spinning performance, repeating many of the thigns he's said before, even danced around a couple questions. And he's not setting himself up for 2016. If the GOP nominee loses, 2016 will have Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Marco Rubio, John Thune, Jeb Bush, etc., plenty of options.

5. RICK PERRY - Relaxed, friendly, happy to be there, lucky to be there. Why is he still here? I thought the Tim Tebow reference was goofy, but maybe some evangelicals heard it and went "One of us! One of us!" Was giddy in attacking Congress and the Supreme Court, checks and balances be damned.

4. NEWT GINGRICH - Tonight was an effective microcosm example of why Newt's debate skills are good enough that he could win the GOP nomination but then get eviscerated in the general. The crowd was most enthusiastic when he attacked the judiciary, talking about subpoenas for judges, banning courts, etc. Good grief, really? But he was weakest in defending his Freddy Mac connections. His arguing over what is technically "lobbying" felt like Clinton's dance on the head of a pin over "is."

3. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Went after Newt Gingrich the strongest, made points that needed to be made. Stoof up for herself when Newt appeared dismissive. Also acted as surrogate for the anti-Ron Paul contingent when talking about how dangerous Iran is. Probably her best performance in months. Maybe she'll take fourth in Iowa after all.

2. RON PAUL - He can still win Iowa. His Iran answers didn't play to the crowd, and I know many conservatives who like his domestic ideas but loathe his foreign ones. He got in the best slam of the night on Newt.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Mitt did just what he needed to do. He was magnanimous with Newt, letting the lesser-tier candidates do the attacking. He defended his positions well and kept the focus on Obama. He stood up to Chris Wallace, and not in the Newt way ("media malpractice!"). Mitt is demonstrating he does have the strength to stand up for himself in a debate but kill with kindness. Maybe he won't win Iowa, but this may be the step-stool to a New Hampshire landslide.

(Until the next debate. Who am I kidding?)