The Republican winners of the Ames Straw Poll:
1979 - George H.W. Bush
1987 - Pat Robertson
1995 - Bob Dole/Phil Gramm (tie)
1999 - George W. Bush
2007 - Mitt Romney
So 40% of the time, the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination, and 20% of the time, he became president.
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