Politically Speaking - 3/29/16

Just wanted to hit some political thoughts this week.

1. Random Donald Trump Quotes I Found After 10 Minutes of Googling

"Nobody has more respect for women than me."
"Nobody reads the Bible more than me."
"Nobody knows the system better than me."
"Nobody's done more for equality than me."
"On trade, there's nobody more conservative than me."
On ISIS: "Nobody would be tougher than me."
"There's nobody better to beat Hillary Clinton than me."
"Nobody builds walls better than me."
"There's no one more pro-Israel than me."
"Nobody knows more about trade than me."
"When I am elected, no one will be tougher or smarter than me."
"There is nobody more against ObamaCare than me."
"There's nobody more militaristic than me."
"Nobody's ever been more successful than me."
"Nobody's bigger than me, nobody's better than me."
"Who knows Howard [Stern] better than me?"
"Nobody can be stronger than me on the border."
"Nobody's stronger on the Second Amendment than me."
"You look at those empty factories all over the place, and nobody hits that message better than me."
"Virtually no one has spent more money in helping the American people with disabilities than me."
"Latinos love me."
"The Hispanics love me."
"I love the poorly educated!"
"Who gets worse publicity than me?"

Words can't express, better than his own, what a dishonest narcissist he is. This is what happens when you surround yourself with shameless sycophants and unscrupulous henchmen your entire adult life.

And here's one former Trump worker who's seen the light.

"Trump never intended to be the candidate. But his pride is too out of control to stop him now. You can give Trump the biggest gift possible if you are a Trump supporter: stop supporting him. 

"He doesn't want the White House. He just wants to be able to say that he could have run the White House. He’s achieved that already and then some. If there is any question, take it from someone who was recruited to help the candidate succeed, and initially very much wanted him to do so. The hard truth is: Trump only cares about Trump."

But hey, now Trump's campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has surrendered to police for misdemeanor battery after initially lying about it. The charge stems from an incident where he grabbed Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields while she tried to ask Trump a question on illegal immigration. It left finger-sized bruises on her arm; she tweeted out the picture. Lewandowski insisted he never touched her, but video footage has surfaced proving 100% that he did.

Breitbart did not stand by their reporter, leading to a slew of resignations from that site, including her own. Whatever you thought of Breitbart before, it is now just a pro-Trump propaganda site, inflaming white nationalist sentiments.

The initial grab doesn't look that bad, but it's always the cover-up. Not only did Lewandowski insist it didn't happen, but Trump himself said he thought Fields made it all up. Then the Trumpsters started a smear campaign on Fields.

2. RIP GOP

For me, Marco Rubio lost the race when at the last debate, he said he would still support Donald Trump as the Republican nominee because Hillary Clinton was worse. While I admire the attempts of #NeverTrump to try and stop him, I don't see how Trump doesn't get the nomination.

If he goes into Cleveland with 1100 delegates, I am sure the vast majority of the non-Trump delegates will go in with the mentality of making sure it's not Trump. I know I would if I was a delegate. (I missed the filing deadline to run to become one.) There are only two outcomes from this. Either Trump becomes the nominee, or he doesn't.

If he does, he goes into the general election as the least popular candidate in modern history. No one is luckier than Hillary Clinton in this regard. She was poised to be the least trusted, most disliked candidate until Trump showed up. If the Dems had picked someone more like Jim Webb, they'd probably be looking at winning all 50 states.

The GOP has a challenge before them. You have so much baggage there, with the Clinton Foundation working as a slush-fund, with her compromise of national security over her private email server, her constant dishonesty, her stunts like refusing more debates until Bernie Sanders changes his "tone," etc. She could be indicted before the Democratic convention.

And yet somehow, in the easiest slam-dunk election in a generation, Trump shows up. Trump is a golem, an Ozymandias laying waste to all before him. Trump exposed the weaknesses in the Republican party - in their platform, in their lack of results, in the echo chamber of conservative media. The white working class is getting left behind. Some tea party activists are more concerned with obstructing and demonizing their own side.

You had GOP donors throw their money at Jeb Bush, who was never going to win this election. It was a vanity campaign defying all logic. You had clowns like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum crowding the debate stage.

I found the Buckley Club the best compilation site of those who aided Trump's rise, and those who fought it.

But let's say somehow Ted Cruz (the man who said right before Iowa that "Donald Trump is terrific") becomes the nominee at convention. Ted Cruz will be that ideologically pure constitutional conservative that preaches to the choir and no one else. I was really hoping when I saw him in person, I'd see a candidate who could expand his appeal. I didn't. I saw a man give the same stump speech he gives everywhere. The same lines I've heard in interviews and debates. The same televangelist tone, the same red-meat one-liners.

But if it's Cruz or John Kasich or anyone else, Trump will file lawsuits left and right and then runs as an independent. I don't know how he could get on enough ballots - he'd probably co-opt another party to do it. But he would trash the GOP worse than the Democrats, and still, we'd wind up with Hillary Clinton in the White House. Show me a realistic path that doesn't end with Hillary winning the election.

So, really, the best thing the Republican party can do is focus on 2020. Nikki Haley, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez, Marco Rubio... The future could be bright once we get this nightmare election season out of the way.

Where I Stand on the Current Candidates - March 2016

1. MARCO RUBIO - Rubio's been the one I've supported because I agree with him on the issues the most of the four remaining men. I think he would be a transformative president. I love the thought of a Rubio/Haley ticket. Poll after poll shows he would beat Hillary Clinton in a general election, better than Cruz or Trump would fare.

I like most of his tax plan, I like that he supports Congressional term limits and balancing the budget. I don't like that's he's taken a much more hawkish tone since the Paris attacks and wants to beef up the Patriot Act.

He's won Minnesota and Puerto Rico, but the other 18 contests so far have gone to Trump or Cruz. At least Rubio can claim he's the only won to get more than 50% of the vote in any one contest.

Rubio really threw himself on the Trump grenade. It's diminished him, but it also did slow down the momentum of Trump. Unfortunately for Rubio, Cruz is the main beneficiary from it. I saw someone mention that Rubio lost the prisoner's dilemma. Rubio and Cruz seemed poised to go after Trump after their last debate, but Cruz stabbed Rubio first. Cruz is campaigning hard in Florida, not because he think he can win, but because he believes he can do enough damage there to stop Rubio from winning.  If Rubio loses Florida, a winner-take-all state, it's over.

2. JOHN KASICH - If Rubio loses Florida, but Kasich wins Ohio, it's a new day. Kasich may be playing a longer game than anyone. He doesn't have the money of Cruz or the free air-time of Trump so he keeps pinpointing certain states to focus on, and lets the vast majority of chips fall elsewhere.

Kasich actually has a pretty good track record. He was a Congressman for a while and was part of the 1990's Congress that actually balanced a budget. He went back to work in the private sector for a while, also would guest on Fox News sometimes. I remember him guest-hosting the O'Reilly Factor more than once. Then he ran for governor of Ohio and he's shown reform there, making him one of the more popular GOP governors in the nation.

Kasich's the last governor standing, and generally it's a governorship that provides the best training for becoming a president. I like that he's trying to keep things optimistic. I like that he's for limiting the scope of the Patriot Act. He strikes me as the best of the four who could actually get Congress to work together. But if he loses Ohio, it's over.

3. TED CRUZ - I feel like my life as a Republican would be easier if I liked Cruz, but when almost everyone who has ever worked with him despises him, that's a warning sign. He comes across to me as opportunistic and phony. I don't get inspired from listening to him speak, I get annoyed. I don't want my president to sound like a nasally Jimmy Swaggart and smile like an alien trying not to blow his cover.

Once Cruz was elected, he has done a lot in the Senate to obstruct and undermine, but not win. It may win with his brand, but he hurts everyone else and doesn't seem to care. The real character signal for me is the way he blasted Mike Lee. Lee is the closest thing he has to a friend in the Senate, and his willingness to throw Lee under the bus shows he has no loyalty to anyone but himself. And then he turns around and says anyone who doesn't support him is "the establishment" or "the elites." Strawmen.

Cruz says reporters are telling him they have exposes on Trump that they're not going to run until June or July. But Ted won't say who. Does anyone really believe reporters would confide in Cruz that way? Cruz makes my skin crawl.

But ... according to ISideWith, I actually agree with Cruz more than Kasich. And he's better than Trump.

4. DONALD TRUMP - Trump's reaching working-class voters in a way that the other three aren't. After fifteen years of war, too big to fail, and stagnant wages - on top of conservative media types more concerned with enriching themselves than actually solving anything - a lot of people feel left behind too. They'd like a Republican who's as anti-mainstream as possible to blow things up. A lot of working-class voters on the left feel the same way, where they see the embodiment of crony capitalism / DC corruption in Hillary Clinton as a front-runner, and so the rise of Bernie Sanders.

One thing that drove me nuts about Romney's 2012 campaign was his disproportionate emphasis on helping small business owners over regular workers.

So Trump comes along. He's a strongman. He shows toughness. He gets a lot of support from people who like that he "tells it like it is" even though he lies more than anyone else running on both sides.  He talks circles around questions without answering them. He's a narcissistic vulgarian who hasn't shown much of a moral code in his life. When he gives speeches, you don't hear much about love of country. You hear about polls and how people love him. The slogan "Make America Great Again" has the implied "I Will" in front of it.

More than once in the most recent debate, he said he'd order the military to kill family members of suspected terrorists, even though it was illegal. Sure he walked it back the next day, but that evening, he felt really good about planning to commit future war crimes. He's the American Benito Mussolini.

Now what does that mean, really? He appeals to the authoritarian, nationalist side of a lot of people. He's about the cult of his personality. His high-tariff trade-war plan would kill the economy. He's demonstrated he doesn't really understand the details of the federal budget. If people think Obama made America lose some stature and/or credibility around the world, that's nothing compared to what Trump will do.

Even now, as he says he's funding his own campaign, it's a shell game. He's funding loans to his campaign, but as donors come in, he's going to reimburse himself.

Back to the conservative media types. At least Trump's exposed a lot of hypocrites, the craven attention-seekers who care more about spotlight than principle. I'm no purity-test guy, but good grief. When Trump says he will order the military to do illegal things and they don't bat an eye, what is going on?

So here's to his enablers and suck-ups: Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, Joe Scarborough, most of Fox News, and most of Breitbart. Shoutout to Fox Business Channel, soon to be renamed Trump Business Channel. Mazeltov to Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Matt Drudge, and everyone at Right2Rise. Applause to the decisions boards of CNN, ABC, CBS, and NBC for his wall-to-wall coverage. Kudos to Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Jeff Sessions, and Paul LePage for bowing to the Strongman.

As for the Democratic race...

1. BERNIE SANDERS - At least he's honest. His wild aspirations for a socialist America would get stopped by a Republican Congress.

2. HILLARY CLINTON - Probably the most vulnerable Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter ran for re-election, and yet the GOP can't get its act together.

Politically Speaking - 11/2/15

Some random thoughts on the current state of politics.

- It's been pretty amazing and yet completely predictable how Hillary Clinton has played the "sexism" card against Bernie Sanders. Bernie's been saying people shout for years, but Hillary somehow spun that into a craven dog-whistle for sexism. It was pathetic, but it worked. Now anything Bernie or his campaign says about Hillary that isn't fawning is somehow considered a sexist attack. RNC take note: learn how to handle crap like this, because it's nothing compared to what the Clinton Machine will throw at your eventual candidate.

- RNC chair Reince Preibus has decided "enough is enough" with the way the GOP debates have been going, compared to the substantive one Anderson Cooper moderated for the Democrats. He has removed NBC from their planned February debate, and this actually serves as a warning to the other networks. The candidates have since held their own meeting to figure out how they want to proceed. Reince has thus far been incompetent in how these debates have gone.

- Jeb Bush's claim that he hadn't seen the PowerPoint on attacking Marco Rubio until it was leaked was weak sauce. And he reboots his campaign with the instantly mockable #JebCanFixIt. He should drop out. Of course, so should Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham.