A month ago I thought Colorado and Nevada were crucial for McCain. But now it looks like if he loses Ohio and Pennsylvania, it's over, and he's down in Pennsylvania by 10 points. Only if he wins both of them and keeps North Carolina and Florida does McCain then rest his hopes on keeping at least one of Colorado and Nevada.
Looking at electoral map history, the nation used to be a lot more prone to giant swings in going red or going blue. FDR won big all four times, as did Truman the first time, even though the popular vote was close. Then the country overwhelmingly went for Eisenhower. Kennedy squeaked out 1960, but the nation threw its electoral weight behind Lyndon Johnson, only to throw it the other way behind Nixon in '68 and '72. Things got close, but Ronald Reagan had record landslides for two elections. Bill Clinton only got 43% of the vote in 1992 but electoral-college-wise it was a landslide. And we've been close ever since.
It wouldn't surprise me to see this race remain close on Nov. 4, but I think more likely, Obama will see a couple of those swing states go his way early, be it Ohio or New Hampshire or North Carolina or Florida, and it will have a domino effect that spreads West, winding up getting him over 300 electoral votes.
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