Sarah Palin in 2012?

Pretty bloody likely, unless her family decides otherwise.

It looks like McCain will lose the election, and the next four years will be Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Sarah Palin can go back to Alaska, finish her term, run for a second in 2010, and then think about if she wants to try the national circuit thing again. I believe she can do it.

For starts, she would have a different team. I think she and McCain see what a disservice Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis have done to them. They ran a campaign like Bush 2004. McCain is not Bush, but it was eaiser for Obama to keep hammering that point when Rove acolytes were running his campaign. When Palin joined the ticket, she didn't bring her own people, people who knew her, people who knew her strengths and weaknesses and have learned what has worked for her in the past and what hasn't. 80% approval rating from any state is no accident.

Barring a Gingrichian figure to rise to leadership in Congress that will be heavily Democratic next year, the void will try to be filled by the next presidential election.

Now who on the stage now could run in 2012? Mitt Romney could give it another go. If the economy is still messy in Fall 2011, he would have some appeal. He's also said some things this year that will bite him then. ("I want to double the size of Guantanamo.") I don't see Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or John McCain as viable in 2012.

The other main pursuer to the 2012 crown I see is Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal. He's even younger than Palin, but he showed vastly superior leadership during Hurricane Gustav than whoever ran that place when Katrina hit. And hey, he's an ethnic minority. Democrats will always label Republicans as racists until they get an ethnic minority on the ticket. (Never mind that poll that said 30% of white Democrats are racist and former KKK member Robert Byrd is the senior Democrat in the Senate.)

On the flip side, I can see many Republicans who aspire to the presidency sitting 2012 out. If Obama is remotely effective, they might not want to be the Bob Dole of 2012. I would argue the main reason Hillary sat out 2004 was she knew half of one term as senator wasn't going to beat Bush, adding to the irony of what Obama was able to do.

Where do I sit today? I sit contented knowing Obama will be our next president. I sit hoping he'll be able to control the leadership in Congress from treating the next four years as revenge time. Obama's been going more and more to the middle since he sealed the nomination, and maybe he can effectively govern from there. My general feeling is that 30% of the country is die-hard leftie Democrat, 30% is die-hard rightie Republican, and then there's the middle 40% who get screwed by gerrymandering. The next two to four years is the time for the GOP to reform itself, get back to basics, quit asking 'What Would Reagan Do?' (I loved him too, but it's a different time now) and see what big issues Obama will actually reach across the aisle on.

I also hope this is the time the Democrats learn from the mistakes of the Republicans during their control years. I hope they reform themselves too. But if in January 2009, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd still hold their Chair positions, I'll just have to brace for two more years of the Same Old Same Old.

10% approval, Nancy. 10% approval, Harry. Clean thine houses, for the good of the country.