Jon Huntsman's plan to raise taxes on the middle-class

Jon Huntsman needs something to jump-start his campaign. Being the moderate isn't working; attacking his opponents is only supplying footage to future Democratic commercials. Now he's come forth with a bold new tax plan.

He's calling it revenue neutral. He and other conservatives have pointed out they want more Americans to have "skin in the game." It gets rid of the mortgage interest deduction and the child tax credit. I just don't see home-owning parents looking at Huntsman and saying, "Yes, cut corporate taxes and raise mine."

Rick Perry leads in South Carolina

Didn't take long to find that Magellan did poll South Carolina too, and Texas governor Rick Perry has a commanding lead.

PERRY 31%
ROMNEY 20%
BACHMANN 14%
CAIN 9%
GINGRICH 5%
PAUL 4%
SANTORUM 2%
HUNTSMAN 2%
OTHER/UNDECIDED - 13%

Delving a little deeper, Perry leads Romney 36-16 among those who identify themselves as "Social Conservatives". He has a bigger lead with males (35-16) than females (27-24).

Then there's the "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate?" question.

Favorable/Unfavorable
Perry - 61% / 17%
Bachmann - 58% / 27%
Romney - 55% / 31%
Cain - 49% / 17%
Gingrich - 35% / 53%
Paul - 28% / 48%
Santorum - 26% / 32%
Huntsman - 9% / 44%

Suddenly Iowa seems a lot more important. If Romney doesn't plan to compete there, he has to be secretly hoping that Michelle Bachmann can win it. But if Perry wins Iowa, I still expect Romney to win New Hampshire, then Perry wins South Carolina, that's serious momentum. That's eaxctly the route Bush took to beat McCain in 2000. Romney has to be glad Nevada's between New Hampshire and South Carolina this year. Haven't seen anything new, but he did great in Nevada in 2008.

Perry #1 in Iowa, Romney #1 in New Hampshire

Looking forward to see a South Carolina poll. After all, when it come to elections we only have three states in this fine country of ours.

The latest polls from Magellan Strategies show that Mitt Romney still has a convincing lead in New Hampshire, and newbie Rick Perry has a narrow lead on Michelle Bachmann in Iowa.

New Hampshire, June 14-15:

Mitt Romney - 42%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Ron Paul - 10%
Sarah Palin - 7%
Rudy Giuliani - 6%
Tim Pawlenty - 5%
Herman Cain - 4%
Newt Gingrich - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 3%
Rick Santorum - 2%

New Hampshire, August 15-16:

Mitt Romney - 36% (-6)
Rick Perry - 18% (+18)
Ron Paul - 14% (+4)
Michele Bachmann - 10% (+0)
Herman Cain - 3% (-1)
Jon Huntsman - 3%
Newt Gingrich - 2% (-1)
Rick Santorum - 1% (-1)

Iowa, July 10-11:

Michele Bachmann - 29%
Mitt Romney - 16%
Tim Pawlenty - 8%
Herman Cain - 8%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Ron Paul - 5%
Rick Santorum - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 0%

Iowa, August 22-23:

Rick Perry - 24% (+24)
Michele Bachmann - 22% (-7)
Mitt Romney - 19% (+3)
Ron Paul - 9% (+4)
Herman Cain - 6% (-2)
Newt Gingrich - 4% (-1)
Rick Santorum - 4% (+1)
Jon Huntsman - 1% (+1)

Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all need a miracle at the next debate to justify staying in the race. And Michelle Bachmann has no room to falter. But I expect all the other candidates to come out swinging at Romney and Perry.

It's interesting to see that Romney, who's long said he's not competing in Iowa, is a close third. If he decided to put in a little effort and somehow won Iowa, the race would be over.

Huntsman's the new McCain

I'm not referring to McCain 2008. I mean McCain 2000. The moderate in the GOP primary who gets press love whenever he critiques his own party. Jon Huntsman did himself no favors in the last debate, his campaign's all but written off, but then he spent the week blasting away at the other candidates, taking jabs at Romney for flip-flopping on the flat-tax and Perry for floating a secession trial balloon.

So why isn't Ron Paul getting more pub?

GOP Iowa Debate

Some thoughts I wrote during the debate:

- Bachmann and Pawlenty really going at each other at Chris Wallace's encouragement.

- Chris Wallace is not going to ask a single softball question.

- All candidates raise their hands when Baier asks if they'd walk away from a 10-to-1 spending to tax hikes deal.

- Oh, Wallace did ask a softball, to Pawlenty, on "ObamneyCare." Oh, and another one to Bachmann on health-care mandates. Never mind.

- Loudest boos of the night for Ron Paul when he rallies against war propaganda.

- Never mind, loudest boos for Byron York's question to Bachmann, "As president, would you be submissive to your husband?"

- These are pretty good questions.

Below were paraphrased pieces of answers from each candidate.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - We shouldn't have increased the debt ceiling. I'll turn the economy around in 90 days. T-Paw, you supported cap-and-trade as governor, sounds like Obama to me. I support freedom of lightbulb choice. I fought against raising cigarette tax but voted for it because it was tied to abortion bill. I didn't cut deals with special interests like T-Paw. There's room in the race for Perry and Palin. Terrorists have no Miranda rights. Guantanamo Bay is a tool we need to have to prosecute the new type of war and warfare. Iran is one of the four terror centers of the world. Submission means respect; that's how we operate our marriage. I support Federal Marriage Amendment; I will be against activist judges. Again, I wouldn't raise the debt ceiling. The S&P's downgrade proved I was right in saying "Don't raise the debt ceiling." In conclusion, I want to send a message to DC they can't miss.

MITT ROMNEY - Our corporate taxes need to be competitive with other nations. Our trade policy needs to benefit us, not just our trade partners. I've been supporting Cut Cap & Balance, plus Balanced Budget Amendment. Mass. unemployment under fed level of unemployment 3 out of 4 years I was in office. We want to make sure America is a home to the best and brightest in the world. We are a nation of immigrants; we love legal immigration. We have to secure our border and crack down on employers of illegals. I didn't believe in raising taxes. As governor I cut taxes (but raised fees). We cut spending in Mass. Every year we balanced the budget. ObamneyCare? I believe in the 10th Amendment. We had a state health-care solution. Obama made a bad national plan out of it. We've helped the people of Afghanistan gian freedom from Taliban, but they need to preserve their own sovereignty. I believe the issue of marriage should be addressed at the federal level. Why not at state level? Because people move. Marriage is a status. I believe in Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as between man and woman. I wouldn't extend unemployment benefits; I'd come up with a new plan. In conclusion, this prez doesn't understand how this economy works. We need someone who believe in free enterprise and will make this country the hope of the Earth.

RON PAUL - The country's bankrupt and no one wants to admit it. We need lower taxes and less regulation. We'll have a divided Congress for a while so you have to have military cuts on the table to get them to go along with cutting other programs. I have good record on immigration. Corporatism does well whether under Obama or Republicans. We have to give people more control of their health care. I'm pleased Perry's coming cuz he represents the status quo, and I'm different than him. Why are we scared of Iran who "might" get a nuclear weapon someday? Remember when we had the Cold War and the Soviets had 30,000 weapons? Bring out troops home! These pretend free-traders keep raising trade sanctions. Our problem is we don't mind our own business. Bachmann turns the rule of law on its head regarding terrorists. You're hearing the war propaganda. It's time we quit this; we're spending trillions of dollars on these wars. The federal government shouldn't have marriage police. Why do we have to have a license to get married? You can phase out the Fed. I'm delighted mainstreamers are catching up with auditing the Fed. We owe the Fed $1.6 trillion. Let's just declare that gone. In conclusion, liberty comes from our Creator. I am down on these wars that costs trillions, we need a gold standard, lower the regulations, then we can achieve real peace and prosperity.

HERMAN CAIN - Make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Change capital gains tax to 0%. Make top tax rate down to 25%. I know more now than I did then when I spoke about banning mosques. I will never say I apologize for saying sharia law does not belong in US courts. I've learned more about Afghanistan lately. "America's got to learn to take a joke." America can be a nation of high fences and wide-open doors. Perry's just one more politician. Our energy strategy is directly related to national security. The head of Iran said he wants to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth; I take that seriously. People say they're not clear how Romney's Mormonism relates to the South's Christian/Protestant views. My focus is not on other people's religions. I wouldn't have raised debt ceilings. I'm about growth. Get rid of No Child Left Behind. In conclusion, I represent growth. A poet once said life can seem impossible but it isn't easy when there's so much on the line.

JON HUNTSMAN - As governor I made Utah #1 in job creation. We cut taxes historically; we created the most business-friendly environment in the country. I'm proud of my service to this country. I said the stimulus needed more tax cuts. I am a conservative problem solver; the thing we need to do most on illegal immigration is secure the border. 1800 miles, we've got a third of it done. Once that is done, we can move on. I hope Perry broadens this discussion about job creation. Cyberattacks are an act of war. We need counter-measures; we need a strategic dialogue with China. I think it would be great to have a POTUS who knows something about China. I believe in traditional marriage first and foremost, but I also believe in civil unions. I am very proud of Huntsman Corp., it's a global business. No Child Left Behind hasn't worked, we should get rid of it, education should go to local levels. We need school choice and vouchers. I'm the only one here who stood up for the Boehner deal; we are 25% of the world's GDP. The thought that they would let the nation default is wrong.

NEWT GINGRICH - I was there when Reagan got tax cuts through. As Speaker in the 1990's we got unemployment to 4.2%. Chris, put aside the "gotcha" questions. My messy campaign is like Reagan's or McCain's. Congress should repeal Sarbanes-Oxley and ObamaCare and should implement Lean Six Sigma across Congress. Too much press-corps attention to campaign minutae, not enough to how we differ from Obama. Obama failed to get any illegal immigrations reform through. Move Homeland Security bureaucrats from DC to AZ, NM, TX. The Super-Committee deal is a dumb idea. Hey, Rudy could run, Palin could run, Perry could run. On Libya, you've asked me another "gotcha" question. I think we need to rethink everything in foreign policy. There is nothing illegitimate to making sure that those who work for the government are loyal to this country. Having some kind of central bank is important for monetary policy, but the Fed should be totally audited. We should know who they did and didn't bail out.

TIM PAWLENTY - Go to my website, read my plan for 5% growth a year for ten years. Where's Obama's plan on reform? I never questioned Bachmann's headaches; Obama's giving the country headaches with his policies. But Bachmann's results in Congress are non-existent. My results as governor are clear. Bachmann has a record of misstatements and untrue statements. I balanced the budget; I did raise cigarette fees (not taxes!) Obama should cancel his Cape Cod vacation. Bachmann keeps referring to "leading efforts." Leading and failing is not the objective. Thanks for letting me answer an "ObamneyCare" question. My record as governor is better than Mitt's. Afghanistan was still worth it, but I'd call for a slower draw-down. Syria is killing thousands of their own people, another example of naive foreign policy. Obama repeatedly sticks his thumb in Israel's eye. I'm the pro-life candidate here. In conclusion, if we don't protect freedom, we may lose it forever.

RICK SANTORUM - America has limitless potential. Manufacturing has plummeted here; we need to bring it back. Take the corporate rate and cut it to 0% for manufacturers, our jobs will come back. Hey, some of us haven't had a chance to speak much here! I won't accept tax hikes under any circumstance. You need people good at leadership, not showmanship. I was the first author of Medical Savings Account. Our country is based on (my) moral laws. I respect the 10th Amendment, but some things (polygamy, sterilization) shouldn't not be allowed by states. Iran is not Iceland; they've been at war with us since 1979. Ron Paul is wrong! You're giving these other guys more time than me! Anyone that suggests that Iran is not a threat is not serious; Ron Paul and Obama are alike on this. Sounds like Paul would be okay with some states legallizing polygamy and gay marriage. I am against abortion under any circumstance. I agree we ought to audit the Fed. To suggest we "never" need to raise the debt ceiling is showmanship not leadership again. In conclusion, I've travelled everywhere and nat'l media may not pay attention to us, but I have proven leadership.

As they asked each question, I graded them on how hardball or softball the questions were, and looking back, they rank as follows: Romney, Huntsman, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Cain, Paul, Bachmann, Santorum. Surprised Santorum had the easiest questions, but I think two or three of them he had to beg for.

I tried keeping track of answer time and rebuttal time, and by my unscientific observance, the airtime from most to least ranked as follows: Bachmann, Paul, Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain, Huntsman, with the last four being pretty close, and a gap between T-Paw and Newt.

Overall, this was a really good, entertaining debate. Hard, fair questions by Fox. The one thing they all agreed on? No tax increases under any circumstances.

So how do I think they did? Maybe I'll feel different after I sleep on it, but...

9. HERMAN CAIN - Hey, someone had to come in last. His foreign policy arguments were weak, and there's nothing he offers that isn't covered by other candidates.

8. RICK SANTORUM - He was more assertive and forceful this time around, but also came off as a little desperate and a little too angry. He lost the exchange with Ron Paul where by the end, I felt like Santorum wanted to go to war with Iran now. His "showmanship not leadership" was a good line, and that might stick against Bachmann, but in weeks, we'll forget who coined it.

7. JON HUNTSMAN - Nerves were his weakness tonight. He was able to distinguish himself from the pack when it came to issues like the debt ceiling, civil unions, relations with China, but he wasn't very convincing about it.

6. NEWT GINGRICH - He continues to make the case that he may have some good ideas, but his bad ideas and his demeanor mean he wouldn't be a good president. He should be an advisor or Cabinet member, or be back in Congress, but not President. Sarbanes-Oxley does need serious reform if not outright removal, and Lean Six Sigma would be good for Congress to be educated in, but he spent more time getting cranky with Chris Wallace over what questions he was asking, and he doubled-down on loyalty oaths.

5. TIM PAWLENTY - He was more combative today, but the absolute softball on ObamneyCare wasn't going to score any points, because everyone recognized it as a do-over. I liked that he went right at Bachmann, but she scored more points once the dust settled.

4. RON PAUL - His strengths were on attacking the Fed, and other candidates are joining him in this. He also successfully fought back agains the neocon attacks of Santorum on Iran. He had sections in there where he came off as befuddled.

3. MITT ROMNEY - No attacks by other candidates against him stuck. He was weakest shooting himself in the foot trying to squirm out of answers, like the unemployment benefits.

2. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She continues to render a Sarah Palin candidacy pointless. She coolly disemboweled Pawlenty over his record, though I thought he had some effective blows against her. She's been consistant on the views she espouses, even if some of them might not win her a general election. That Newsweek cover is already forgotten.

1. RICK PERRY - His name came up and everyone had nice things to say, and the stage is wide open for him to waltz in.

I think Bachmann could win the Ames straw poll. I think Perry could win it. I think Romney could win it. Anyone else could use the boost, but I think it's between those three.

And the good thing about the straw poll is it means we'll probably have a couple candidates drop out afterwards.

GOP Debate Moves the Numbers

From InTrade.
Pre-Debate / Post-Debate

1. Mitt Romney - 32% / 30.1%
2. Rick Perry - 31% / 29.5%
3. Sarah Palin - 8.1% / 8.0%
4. Jon Huntsman - 7.7% / 8.9%
5. Tim Pawlenty - 6.5% / 6.0%
6. Michelle Bachmann - 5.8% / 6.2%
7. Ron Paul - 5.5% / 4.6%
8. Rudy Guiliani - 2.1% / 2.1%
9. Chris Christie - 1.3% / 1.3%
10. Newt Gingrich - 1.0% / 1.1%
-- Herman Cain - .7% / 1.0%
-- Rick Santorum - .3% / .4%

The Meaningless Iowa Straw Poll

The Republican winners of the Ames Straw Poll:
1979 - George H.W. Bush
1987 - Pat Robertson
1995 - Bob Dole/Phil Gramm (tie)
1999 - George W. Bush
2007 - Mitt Romney

So 40% of the time, the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination, and 20% of the time, he became president.

The Super Committee

So The Gang of 12 is on its way to formation. At least the Republicans have picked their three-and-three. The R senators are Jon Kyl (AZ), Rob Portman (OH), and Pat Toomey (PA), and the R congressmen are Jeb Hensarling (TX), Dave Camp (MI), and Fred Upton (MI). The D senators are John Kerry (MA), Max Baucus (MO), and Patty Murray (WA). The Democratic congressmen have yet to be named.

Ironic that the fight over limiting government has led to this new quorum of government to figure out how to solve it.