MSNBC's GOP Reagan Library Debate

Left to right the line-up is Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Romney, Perry, Paul, Cain, Huntsman, the most popular in the middle with those doing worse in the polls on the edges.

6:01 - First question to PERRY. (My goodness, he looks like Josh Brolin.) Brian Williams points out Texas is highest in poverty. Perry points out Texas created 1 million jobs when the U.S. lost 2.5 million. Williams points out the jobs were lower-waged. Perry says 95% of them were "above minimum wage." We're going to lower taxes and regulation.

6:04 - Next to ROMNEY. Points out the good he did in Massachusetts, got unemployment to 4.7%. Touts "private sector" experience. Sings Bain Capital's praises. BW asks if being a career politician is a disqualifier; Mitt squirms out of it.

6:07 - Counter to PERRY. Perry slams Mass. job creation rate; says Texas created more jobs in three months than Mass. did in four years. Mitt has great counter on how Texas has much better setup and said if Perry tries to take credit for Texas having oil, it's like Gore saying he invented the internet.

6:09 - Next is SANTORUM. My interest plummets.

6:10 - Next is CAIN. "Eliminate current tax code." Calls it his 9-9-9 tax plan. "If 10% is good enough for God, 9% ought to be good enough for government."

6:12 - China question for HUNTSMAN, "What doesn't Romney get?" No trade wars during a recession. Drops Reagan's name twice.

6:13 - BACHMANN, what regulations would you get rid of? "ObamaCare." One thing I know is kids needs jobs.

6:14 - PAUL, you're an absolutist. "I don't believe in any of these federal regulations." BW counters with asking if we get rid of regulations, do we just let drug companies say "This is safe; trust us."?

6:15 - GINGRICH, you wrote the foreword for Rick Perry's book. "Sure." Now let me walk though how I worked with Reagan.

6:19 - ROMNEY, defend the Mass. health-care plan. On Day One, I'd grant waivers to ObamaCare. It's a bad law. Some of it worked; some of it didn't.

6:21 - PERRY, about 25% of Texans don't have health-care, it's 50th in the nation in health-care. "Medicaid needs to go back to the States." But why are so many Texans uninsured? Perry's punt: "Federal govt won't give us flexibility."

6:24 - HUNTSMAN, we should emphasize personal responsibility. Let the marketplace create options. Utah's #1!

6:26 - BACHMANN. "ObamaCare took over 1/6 of economy." ObamaCare and job are the issue of 2012. "It must be gone now."

6:27 - GINGRICH attacks Politico's John Harris for trying to get candidates to attack each other. (Attacking Chris Wallace last time worked for him.) Gets loudest applause yet by saying we're a team and we're going to defeat Obama.

6:28 - CAIN, I was against HillaryCare, I'm against ObamaCare, and now I'm running against RomneyCare. None of them work.

6:29 - SANTORUM, you're Catholic. Catholics are supposed to care for the poor. What would do about poor people? "No one did more than Rick Santorum for poor people."

6:30 - PERRY, black people are poorer than white people. "Let me answer a different question. Let's create an economy where people know they can take care of their family. And that's true for (any race)."

6:33 - ROMNEY, what say you about Bachmann's pledge to get gas to $2 a gallon. "We are an energy-rich nation living like an energy-poor nation." Obama keeps talking about green jobs; where are they?

6:34 - BACHMANN, if the fed govt would pull back on energy restrictions, we'd see 1.2 million jobs created.

6:35 - HUNTSMAN - I'm not sure that dictating (gas) prices will get you anywhere. Get away from the teleprompter and speak from your heart and soul. We need a president that will provide a "little bit o' leadership."

6:36 - PAUL, yes I'd get rid of minimum wage, but I'm a physician; why did I not get asked about health care? Did I mention Perry praised HillaryCare? Isn't Medicare a mandate? Everything's a mandate!

6:38 - PERRY, hey Ron you wrote a letter telling Reagan you're leaving the party.

6:39 - PAUL, I supported Reagan but in the 1980's we had huge deficits.

First break. Then a video tribute to Reagans Ronald & Nancy. And Nancy Reagan is in attendance and gets applause.

6:47 - PERRY (hm, he seems to be getting more questions...), was Social Security wrong from the beginning? People who are on SS today or in line don't need to worry about not getting benefits, but it is a Ponzi scheme. SS is a "monstrous lie." JH counters with quotes from Rove & Cheney, but Perry doubles down and calls SS a lie.

6:50 - ROMNEY, how do you have a conversation about SS w/o scaring seniors? "Funding is not the issue." Our nominee has to someone committed to saving SS not abolishing it. I'll make sure we make the program financially secure. SS works for millions of Americans.

6:51 - PERRY, you can have reasons or results. You can't keep the status quo in place and call SS anything other than a Ponzi scheme.

6:52 - CAIN (who wasn't asked), do you want to hear more rhetoric or a solution? I believe in a Chilean model.

6:53 - PAUL, talk about Perry's record. Governor made an executive order forcing vaccinations; legislature overwhelmingly repealed.

6:54 - BACHMANN, I'm against forcing inocculations on children. I cut my teeth on education reform.

6:55 - PERRY, "I feel like a pinata." It wasn't an executive order; we were trying to cure cancer. We allowed for an opt-out.

6:56 - SANTORUM - We created Dept of Homeland Security becuz agencies had no info sharing. Perry says "States rights." What about "Parents rights"? An opt-out? What about an opt-in?

6:57 - ROMNEY - I'm sure Perry would've done it differently if he had to do it again. We love this country. We believe this president has to go. He's a nice guy, but he doesn't have a clue how to get this country working again. (Applause from audience.)

6:58 - GINGRICH - Back to Homeland Security. There are people who will try to sneak in WMD's.

6:59 - PAUL, if you abolished the TSA, what would exist in its place? Airlines. The TSA bureaucracy is monstrous. Private institutions do a better job of protecting. BW: what about federal aid for natural disasters? "FEMA's broke." Hey, people pay insurance. We're spending $20 billion for air conditioning in Afghanistan. Bring the troops home.

7:00 - CAIN, don't eliminate FEMA; let's fix FEMA, fix Homeland Security. There is a responsbile way for govt to run things.

7:01 - HUNTSMAN, we need Homeland Security to not feel like a fortress-protection mentality. We've got 14 million unemployed, this is a human tragedy. These other issues are important but let's not lose sight of what's important.

7:05 - PERRY - Texas is one of the worst for h.s. graduates and you cut education funding. "The reductions we made were thoughtful reductions." We're making progress. When you share a border with Mexico, we have a unique situation in our state. (I think he wanted to blame Mexicans for bringing down test scores?) Points our eBay and Facebook moved their HQ to Texas. (Jose Diaz comes in to ask border question.) "You can secure the border but it requires commitment from fed govt."

7:08 - ROMNEY - Border? We've got to have a fence, or a techno way of seeing who's crossing. Employers who hire people illegally is a magnet to illegal aliens. We can't give amnesty.

7:10 - GINGRICH - I'm with Reagan. Control the border; establish legal guest-worker program. Make English official language of govt. (Applause from audience!)

7:12 - SANTORUM, I agree mostly w/ Newt. I'm son of Italian immigrant. JD, what do you do with 11 mil already here illegally? "To have that discussion right now, no more. Secure the border first. We'll have discussion afterwards."

7:13 - BACHMANN, you support a fence. Let's say the border's secure. What do you do with the 11 mil already here? "We can't yield sovereignty to another nation (Mexico). No more tax subsidies to illegals." What do you do with the 11 mil? "It depends. Immigration worked beautifully until the 1960's."

7:15 - CAIN, we can solve it with boots on the ground. (Boots on the groun, boots on the groun, lookin like a fool with yo boots on the groun!) (Sorry.)

7:16 - HUNTSMAN, I agree with most of what's been said. Immigration is a human issue. I see this issue thru my adopted daughters' eyes. Let's not lose sight of the fact our legal immigration system is broken.

7:17 - PAUL, Texas shouldn't be forced to provide free health-care and education to illegal immigrants. Our drug laws are causing a lot of this. Sure, a barbed-wire fence with machine guns! I don't believe that's what the American people want.

Final break....

7:23 - ROMNEY, are you a member of the Tea Party? "I don't believe we carry cards." If the Tea Party is for smaller govt, I'm for the Tea Party.

7:24 - PERRY, I would've raised my hand in walking away from the 10-to-1 deal. Plugs balanced-budget amendment.

7:25 - BACHMANN, Reagan would've raised his hand too.

7:26 - HUNTSMAN, I'd love to get everyone to take a pledge to stop taking pledges. I pledge allegiance to my wife and country and that's it. BW: Do you think we're safer today post-9/11. "We have 100,000 in Afghanistan." We've got to bring those troops home, nation-build here. Let's get our core fixed.

7:28 - ROMNEY - People are worried about paying their bills. We have a crisis in confidence. We need a leader who has the experience to get us back on track.

7:29 - PERRY, was GWB too quick to intervene in Iraq? One thing I want to praise Obama on is killing Bin Laden, and proving that Keynesian economic philosophy doesn't work.

7:30 - BACHMANN, I'm worried the SuperCommittee will cut resources to military, and hey, look at the oil revenues in Libya.

7:33 - SANTORUM, I'm hearing a very isolationist view on pulling troops out. Reagan was committed to America to being a force for good around the world. We didn't have exit-strategy deadlines for leaving.

7:34 - HUNTSMAN, in order for the Repub party to win, we can't run from science, we can't run from mainstream Repub philosophy. We need someone who can win, but when we make comments that don't reflect reality, we turn people off.

7:36 - PERRY, the science is not settled on climate change. It's nonsense. Galileo got outvoted for a spell. To put America's economic future in jeopardy, to cut back in areas that'd have monstrous impact, not good economics, nor good science.

7:38 - BACHMANN, do you want to drill in the Everglades? "We need to do it responsibly." EPA has been devastating.

7:40 - GINGRICH, I'd fire Ben Bernake tomorrow. Audit the Fed. Let's not raise taxes, let's raise revenue. Put people back to work.

7:41 - ROMNEY, I don't want to raise taxes but everyone ought to feel like they're part of this effort, but right now, the question is "how about middle income Americans?" They're the most hurt by this economy. BW: Would Ben Bernake have a job in your administration? "I'd look for someone new."

7:43 - PERRY, you've executed 234 in Texas, how do you sleep at night? "I've never worried we've excuted someone innocent." (applause from audience) "Americans understand justice. It's a state-by-state issue."

7:46 - CAIN, GE had $14.2 billion in profits, paid no taxes. "This is why I proposed my 9-9-9 plan." This recession is the worst since the Great Depression.

7:47 - PAUL, would you get rid of school lunch? "If local govt does it, that's fine." We're against mandates.

And that's a wrap.

And then to analyze, MSNBC has Rachel Maddow, Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz, Lawrence O'Donnell, Al Shartpon, Eugene Robinson.... What?

Okay, let's look at this.

Rick Perry was the front-runner, and that's how it played. He got the most questions and he took the most hits. What they'll be writing about tomorrow is how he promounced "props" as "propes", that Scoial Security is a lie and a Ponzi scheme, that science on climate change is not settled, and that Texas was last in the insured. But how did the whole field do?

Amount of questions asked, by my count:

Perry - 13
Romney - 9
Bachmann - 8
Paul - 7
Huntsman - 7
Cain - 6
Gingrich - 5
Santorum - 5

Ranking in descending order based on how they did tonight and what effect that might have on polls in the first few states.

8. RICK SANTORUM - Punted on illegal immigration and tried to stand out by being more pro-foreign-war than the other candidates. Has no chance.

7. HERMAN CAIN - His 9-9-9 plan would raise taxes on poor people. Wanted to hear more about what he liked about how Chile solved their Social Security problem, but that's the problem with eight people on stage. At this point, has no chance.

6. NEWT GINGRICH - His attack of John Harris's question felt like Arnold saying "Whatchoo talkin bout, Willis!" Funny the first time, but... Gingrich just doesn't have the temperment to run and win a national campaign. Has no chance.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - It was genius timing on Rick Perry's part to announce his candidacy right after she won the Ames straw poll. She's received zero traction since. Tonight she threw out many stats, half of which I'm inclined to not believe. We'll see what PolitiFact says. But she needed to re-assert herself as at least the third-place candidate, and she didn't do that.

4. RON PAUL - Landed a few punches on Perry. Also seemed too simplistic in his answers sometimes of just getting the government out of everything. How would that really work, really? But I never would have thought in 2008 he'd get more votes in 2012 than he did then. But I do think he'll get more votes this time around. Not much more, but more.

3. JON HUNTSMAN - Much better this time around. Is it enough to save his campaign? No. But it makes his 2016 candidacy more credible. I like his no-pledge pledge. But this is now a two-person race and he's not one of those two persons.

2. RICK PERRY - MSNBC seemed determined to bring him down a peg. He was treated like the front-runner and people weren't afraid to go after him, but he was ready with counter-arguments for each candidate. Trouble is, Mitt had counters for his counter-arguments. I don't think Perry hurt himself much in the deep-red states, particularly in the south, but I think to the north and west, he looks a little less electable than he did last month. I still think he'll win Iowa and South Carolina.

1. MITT ROMNEY - For the most part he was masterful. Playful when Perry expected a hard hit, took each opportunity served up for him to sound like the more diplomatic one. Got in a brilliant Al Gore zinger on Perry early. Looked least comfortable when asked about the Tea Party. Looked most comfortable attacking Obama, but with velvet gloves. Perry called Obama a liar; Romney just said he's a nice guy but doesn't have a clue, a more palatable way to attack. I still think he'll win New Hampshire and Nevada, and then when Perry wins South Carolina, the establishment will throw its support behind Romney to stop George W. Bush II from getting the nomination.

I also think it's too late for anyone else to jump in. It's Romney v. Perry. If Sarah Palin announced she was in, she'd finish off Bachmann, weaken Perry, and Romney would actually have an easier time.