As of October 23.
1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 66.5%
2. (2) - Rick Perry - 14.7%
3. (4) - Herman Cain - 7.2%
4. (7) - Newt Gingrich - 3.1%
5. (6) - Jon Huntsman - 2.5%
5. (8) - Ron Paul - 2.5%
7. (9) - Michelle Bachmann - 1.2%
8. (-) - Rick Santorum - .5%
8. (-) - Gary Johnson - .5%
My first thought might have been "Wow, Newt's fourth" but he's fourth at a mere 3.1%. He's fourth because Chris Christie and Sarah Palin have finally fallen out of the running.
Now that we have a few weeks' break from debates, the candidates can go out and capitalize.
Mitt Romney is in the best position and people with money know it. Rick Perry had a really good quarter, but have you noticed how much of that was raised before the debates started? With the last debate as the last taste in voters' mouths, I think Perry's going to go for a scorched-Earth sourthern strategy. He's going to go mean and negative and go farther than what the Bush team did to McCain in South Carolina in 2000, guaranteed. I think it will backfire, but only backfire enough to secure the nomination for Romney. After that, Mitt will be battered and bruised (we ain't seen nothin' yet) and Obama just has to hope for some positive ecominic number to combat Mitt with.
Obama's strength might be foreign policy, but you know who else had a strong foreign defense argument but a weak domestic one? George H.W. Bush. What happened to him?
As for Herman Cain, InTrade has never taken him too seriously. Cain strikes me as a guy who ran for president to increase book sales and speaking fees, and he's as surprised as anyone that he's suddenly at the top of the polls.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
GOP CNN Debate in Vegas
6:01 - That was one of the dumbest intros I think I've ever seen. Picture Movie-Trailer Guy narrating. "In a world where political mudslinging is another day at the office..."
6:02 - What the freak is Michelle Bachmann wearing? She looks like the eager young ensign ready to prove to her admiral that women can be in the Navy too.
6:04 - Perry looks like he's puffing out his chest on purpose. Remember in junior high when kids would come out of the weight room and act like their muscles were so huge their arms couldn't go all the way down to their sides, and they'd have this little strut? Kinda like that.
6:06 - My Twitter feed is already hilarious. @daveweigel @murphymike @gaypatriot @publiusdb @pattonoswalt @albertbrooks @randytayler @gopTODD #cnndebate
6:07 - Rick Santorum is the first opening statement and h uses it to convey some personal messages. Surprised it doesn't end with a request for his wife to text him if he needs to pick up anything at the grocery store on the way home.
6:08 - Herman Cain's lighting is weird. It's like the color on my TV disappeared.
6:09 - Rick Perry introduces himself as an AUTHENTIC conservative. Yes, he apronounced it in all caps.
6:10 - I'm not going to recap everything said, just give my impressions as I watch. My impression is that Bachmann should not have opened with a "what happens in Vegas" joke.
6:11 - First question comes from the audience, looks like Toupee Kevin from The Office, asks about replacing federal income tax with federal sales tax. Anderson Cooper interprets that as a question about 999 and wants Bachmann to answer first. Bachmann calls herself and her husband "job creators" before slamming the 999 plan.
6:12 - Herman Cain wants folks to read his analysis before they give "knee-jerk" reaction to his 999 plan. And the color is much better on Cain. Santorum then says "Herman's well-meaning, but..." and then rips apart the 999 plan. "It's not good for families." Cain counters Santorum with "that's simply not true."
6:13 - Bachmann tries to walk us through levels of production to demonstrate how Cain's plan is a value-added tax but it doesn't really go anywhere.
6:14 - Perry: "Herman, I love you, brother..." and then 30 seconds later calls him "brother" again. Really? Well, at least he didn't call him "son."
6:16 - Cain says it's not correct to compare apples to oranges. Then he throws in bread in there.
6:17 - Anderson brings in Ron Paul, hey you called it dangerous. Paul goes on for a while, but I can't help but think he has the same optic effect Dennis Kucinich had in 2007. But older.
6:19 - Anderson just now brings in Romney. Romney tries to clarify the 999 plan as far as state tax is concerned. Cain keeps saying apples and oranges, and Romney says "Well, Nevada doesn't want to pay a whole bushel basket of state and federal taxes." He then emphasizes how the middle class needs help. I realize that the arguments between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats want to tax rich people and Republicans want to tax poor people.
6:21 - Newt has a great one-liner to open. Man, if only Newt didn't have such a crappy personal life.
6:23 - Bachmann says everyone needs to pay something. She also wants to abolish the tax code, then flatten it. So, yeah, she wants to raise taxes on poor people.
6:24 - Anderson asks Rick Perry a question about what he thinks of Mitt Romney's 59-point plan and I can picture Lie to Me's Tim Roth stopping him there and saying, "Did you that tic on his face? He hasn't read it." Perry gets in one last shot at 999, then talks about his jobs plan, which consists of drilling for more oil. And gets as animated as I've ever seen him illustrating energy independence.
6:26 - Romney's answering but CNN keeps including Perry in the picture, and Perry looks like he wants to kill Romney.
6:27 - Santorum says that's fine but points how poor western Europeans are more likely to be able to move into higher income brackets than Americans because the manufacturing base is gone. Then somehow he flips that to ObamaCare and says Romney has no credibility in repealing. Then Santorum interrupts him and talks over him, and Romney gets an extra 30 seconds from Anderson so he can actually answer. Which made Romney look strong and Santorum look like, to put it politely, a jerk.
6:31 - Anderson pulls Newt in to pile on RomneyCare. Newt presents an example from Boston to show RomneyCare's flaws but also says it's not fair to say it's the same as ObamaCare. Romney points out we got the idea for an individual mandate from "you and the Heritage foundation." Bachmann begs for time to interrupt Romney to slam ObamaCare.
6:34 - Anderson throws us to commercial. And honestly, this debate is quite entertaining.
6:38 - Anderson asks Paul about ObamaCare. He gets applause for saying people should be able to "opt out of government medicine."
6:40 - Cain talks about getting government out of healthcare.
6:41 - Perry: Texas has some of the finest health-care in the world. But then he brings up illegal immigration. Um, why would he do that? Ah, he says Mitt hired illegals in his home and that is the HEIGHT of hypocrisy. Mitt can't help but laugh. Mitt starts to answer but Rick interrupts. Mitt actually puts his hand on Rick's shoulder to calm him down, and Mitt finally has to say "Anderson, Anderson, what are the debate rules here?"
So it's as though the candidates got together and said "The only way to beat Mitt Romney is to boldly attack him and then not let him answer. Meanwhile Mitt's shown that he's learned from the McCain/Huck/Rudy gang-beatdowns from 2007.
6:43 - Mitt points out Texas has increased 60% in illegal immigration. Rick then brings back that illegals worked on his property. Rick seriously looks pissed. He interrupts Mitt again. Mitt smacks him down. The crowd's loving it.
6:45 - Anderson points out Cain's "joke" about the border fence being electrified.
6:48 - Wow, First Officer Bachmann just said Obama's aunt and uncle are here in the US illegally and she'd deport them. She then says she wants a fence across the entire border. She will "enforce" English as official language of US.
6:49 - Perry, "by the time that fence gets built, there's a lot better way..." There's a split-screen with Perry and Bachmann. Perry's looking at Bachmann, and Bachmann's looking at the pretty lights.
6:50 - Romney slams Perry again on illegal immigration. Perry accuses Mitt of being #1 in job magnets for illegals. Audience boos; they're not buying it. Mitt even gets in a "sounds like the audience agrees with me.:
6:51 - Question from the audience. A Latino man who points out there are plenty of Latinos in this country and most of them did not come here illegally; what's the GOP going to do for us? Anderson throws it to Newt with the preface that Obama got 67% of the Latino vote in 2008. Newt gives a magnanimous answer that'd shoot anyone else up in the polls. But it's Newt.
6:53 - Paul says we put people in groups too much.
6:55 - Cain says what'll appeal to all ethnic groups is his bold plan to boost the economy.
6:56 - Anderson asks Perry if he'd get rid of the 14th Amendment. (He asked Cain but Cain didn't answer.) Perry doesn't want to answer either; he wants to talk about increases in oil drilling and coal mining to boost the economy. Then Anderson asks again if Perry would repeal the 14th Amendment and he says no. AC swings it to Bachmann and she says "Anchor baby."
6:58 - What will Santorum do for Latinos? "Family, faith, values..." He'll prevent the erosion of marriage and family. "Look, I'm for jobs too."
7:00 - Paul mentions bringing troops home from Afghanistan, and the audience is thrilled.
7:02 - Newt & Paul debate where to put nuclear waste. Mitt comes down on Paul's side.
7:04 - Perry agrees with Mitt & Paul, as though someone slipped him a message that he needs to agree with someone on something STAT!
7:06 - Santorum tries to slam Perry, Romney and Cain for supporting TARP.
7:08 - Bachmann boasts of talking to "moms" across this country losing their "nests." "Hold on, moms, it's not too late!"
7:09 - Anderson now asks about OccupyWallStreet. Cain says OWS shouldn't be in front of Wall Street; they should be in front of the White House. Loud applause for Cain in standing by his statement that if you're unemployed you should blame yourself. These GOP crowds cheer the worst things sometimes. Boo the gay soldier, cheer Perry's executing 200 people, shouting "yes" to let an uninsured man die.
7:10 - Paul says Cain's blaming the victims. Paul on the bail-outs: "If you had to give money out, you should have given it to the people losing their homes, not the banks." Paul's strongest moment of the night.
7:14 - Commercial!
7:19 - Anderson asks Santorum about religion being an issue, specifically about Mormonism being a cult. Crowd boos. Santorum: "Pay attention to candidate's values." Applause. He points out he's a Catholic. AC throws it to Newt. "Does faith matter? Absolutely."
7:22 - AC asks Perry if he'll repudiate the pastor's comments. Perry dances around that but gets to freedom of religion. And people are free to express their opinion. "I didn't agree with it, Mitt."
7:23 - Mitt points out the pastor said we should choose who we vote for based on religion, which is against what the founders would want.
7:25 - Bachmann gets a foreign policy question, and she's terrified of "genocidal maniac" running Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
7:26 - Newt slams both parties for their foreign policy stupidity. "I'm a hawk, but I'm a cheap hawk." Laughs and applause.
7:28 - Cain's weakest when talking about foreign policy, like he just started learning about foreign policy a couple months ago. But he knows we need to be friends with Israel.
7:32 - Paul pleads with his fellow candidates to "Cut something!" Be specific!
7:34 - Rick Perry wants to defund the United Nations. Huh.
7:35 - Mitt Romney wants China to pick up more of the international humanitarian-aid slack around the world. And then he rattles off five things he'd cut to Paul. Paul says cutting foreign aid should be the easiest thing to cut. AC says "Even Israel?" "I'd treat all countries equally." Paul says foreign aid is taking money from poor Americans to give to rich people in poor countries, uses Egypt as example.
7:36 - Bachmann says no, don't cut foreign aid to Israel!
7:38 - Cain likes Reagan's foreign policy of "Peace through strength."
7:39 - Paul asks everyone else if they're willing to condemn Reagan for Iran-Contra. Santorum tries to defend it, but Newt points out Reagan himself said it was a terrible mistake.
7:45 - AC asks the room to applaud if they think Romney can beat Obama. Some applause. AC then says to Santorum he's polling at 1%, why does he think he can win? Santorum points out he's the only one who can win in a swing state (Pennsylvania). Um, Rick, you got killed in your last re-election bid. Says Perry ran as a Democrat, Romney ran as a liberal, and that Santorum ran as a conservative and beat "James Carville and Paul Begala."
7:46 - Romney points out the people want to nominate someone who can beat Obama and fix the economy, deflates Santorum. Perry then takes the opportunity to point out Massachusetts had slow job growth. Romney ties Perry into a pretzel and spits him out. Perry tries to counter with "You were a failure as governor" and the crowd boos. Perry keeps forgetting they're in Nevada, not Texas.
7:49 - AC asks Cain if Romney or Perry should be president, and Cain says "No I should be" but Cain's warmer to Romney than Perry.
7:51 - AC says we're out of time, and Newt and Bachmann whine. Bachmann says "The cake is baked and Barack Obama will be a one-term president!" Bachmann drops Reagan's name, then Newt says "Maximizing bickering is not the road to the White House" and gets in his obligatory slam of the media.
7:53 - AC summarizes for us, and we get a shot of one of Mitt Romney's sons shaking Cain's hand.
So how'd they do?
7. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Shrill, whiny, and pro-raising taxes on the poor. Um, yeah. Man, that Ames straw poll was a million years ago, wasn't it?
6. RICK SANTORUM - He can draw blood, but he does not do himself any favors. Giant jerk. He can only weaken opponents; he cannot lift himself up.
5. RON PAUL - He's willing to take positions that no one else will, even though there are Republicans who agree with him. And while it may help him win straw polls, I haven't seen evidence it'll translate into caucus and primary wins.
4. RICK PERRY - He was more animated than he's ever been, but it looked like Romney really got under his skin, like Rick's next plan is to get the rest of Cobra Kai together to jump Romney-san in the parking lot. Perry got the most boos tonight, but that doesn't mean he didn't play well with southern voters. I just think Perry safely eliminated himself from winning Nevada or New Hampshire.
3. HERMAN CAIN - He got piled on for his 999 plan, which is looking weaker by the day. But he's so darn likeable! He defends his plan with gusto, and to his credit, at least he has a plan. It's just one that won't work. I don't see him staying up top much longer.
2. NEWT GINGRICH - The peacemaker. If Jon Huntsman had Newt's ideas and style in debates, he'd be a co-top-tier candidate. But he's Newt freaking Gingrich, the guy who was having an affair while slamming Clinton for the Lewinsky scandal, the guy who left his ailing second wife to hook up with his third.
1. MITT ROMNEY - He was ganged up on a bit there, and yet he emerged from him it, not unscathed, but he didn't lose. He still won. He looks like he's already positioning his campaign to a general-election campaign. He pushed back against the rudeness of the twin Ricks and looked like the better man after the dust settled.
6:02 - What the freak is Michelle Bachmann wearing? She looks like the eager young ensign ready to prove to her admiral that women can be in the Navy too.
6:04 - Perry looks like he's puffing out his chest on purpose. Remember in junior high when kids would come out of the weight room and act like their muscles were so huge their arms couldn't go all the way down to their sides, and they'd have this little strut? Kinda like that.
6:06 - My Twitter feed is already hilarious. @daveweigel @murphymike @gaypatriot @publiusdb @pattonoswalt @albertbrooks @randytayler @gopTODD #cnndebate
6:07 - Rick Santorum is the first opening statement and h uses it to convey some personal messages. Surprised it doesn't end with a request for his wife to text him if he needs to pick up anything at the grocery store on the way home.
6:08 - Herman Cain's lighting is weird. It's like the color on my TV disappeared.
6:09 - Rick Perry introduces himself as an AUTHENTIC conservative. Yes, he apronounced it in all caps.
6:10 - I'm not going to recap everything said, just give my impressions as I watch. My impression is that Bachmann should not have opened with a "what happens in Vegas" joke.
6:11 - First question comes from the audience, looks like Toupee Kevin from The Office, asks about replacing federal income tax with federal sales tax. Anderson Cooper interprets that as a question about 999 and wants Bachmann to answer first. Bachmann calls herself and her husband "job creators" before slamming the 999 plan.
6:12 - Herman Cain wants folks to read his analysis before they give "knee-jerk" reaction to his 999 plan. And the color is much better on Cain. Santorum then says "Herman's well-meaning, but..." and then rips apart the 999 plan. "It's not good for families." Cain counters Santorum with "that's simply not true."
6:13 - Bachmann tries to walk us through levels of production to demonstrate how Cain's plan is a value-added tax but it doesn't really go anywhere.
6:14 - Perry: "Herman, I love you, brother..." and then 30 seconds later calls him "brother" again. Really? Well, at least he didn't call him "son."
6:16 - Cain says it's not correct to compare apples to oranges. Then he throws in bread in there.
6:17 - Anderson brings in Ron Paul, hey you called it dangerous. Paul goes on for a while, but I can't help but think he has the same optic effect Dennis Kucinich had in 2007. But older.
6:19 - Anderson just now brings in Romney. Romney tries to clarify the 999 plan as far as state tax is concerned. Cain keeps saying apples and oranges, and Romney says "Well, Nevada doesn't want to pay a whole bushel basket of state and federal taxes." He then emphasizes how the middle class needs help. I realize that the arguments between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats want to tax rich people and Republicans want to tax poor people.
6:21 - Newt has a great one-liner to open. Man, if only Newt didn't have such a crappy personal life.
6:23 - Bachmann says everyone needs to pay something. She also wants to abolish the tax code, then flatten it. So, yeah, she wants to raise taxes on poor people.
6:24 - Anderson asks Rick Perry a question about what he thinks of Mitt Romney's 59-point plan and I can picture Lie to Me's Tim Roth stopping him there and saying, "Did you that tic on his face? He hasn't read it." Perry gets in one last shot at 999, then talks about his jobs plan, which consists of drilling for more oil. And gets as animated as I've ever seen him illustrating energy independence.
6:26 - Romney's answering but CNN keeps including Perry in the picture, and Perry looks like he wants to kill Romney.
6:27 - Santorum says that's fine but points how poor western Europeans are more likely to be able to move into higher income brackets than Americans because the manufacturing base is gone. Then somehow he flips that to ObamaCare and says Romney has no credibility in repealing. Then Santorum interrupts him and talks over him, and Romney gets an extra 30 seconds from Anderson so he can actually answer. Which made Romney look strong and Santorum look like, to put it politely, a jerk.
6:31 - Anderson pulls Newt in to pile on RomneyCare. Newt presents an example from Boston to show RomneyCare's flaws but also says it's not fair to say it's the same as ObamaCare. Romney points out we got the idea for an individual mandate from "you and the Heritage foundation." Bachmann begs for time to interrupt Romney to slam ObamaCare.
6:34 - Anderson throws us to commercial. And honestly, this debate is quite entertaining.
6:38 - Anderson asks Paul about ObamaCare. He gets applause for saying people should be able to "opt out of government medicine."
6:40 - Cain talks about getting government out of healthcare.
6:41 - Perry: Texas has some of the finest health-care in the world. But then he brings up illegal immigration. Um, why would he do that? Ah, he says Mitt hired illegals in his home and that is the HEIGHT of hypocrisy. Mitt can't help but laugh. Mitt starts to answer but Rick interrupts. Mitt actually puts his hand on Rick's shoulder to calm him down, and Mitt finally has to say "Anderson, Anderson, what are the debate rules here?"
So it's as though the candidates got together and said "The only way to beat Mitt Romney is to boldly attack him and then not let him answer. Meanwhile Mitt's shown that he's learned from the McCain/Huck/Rudy gang-beatdowns from 2007.
6:43 - Mitt points out Texas has increased 60% in illegal immigration. Rick then brings back that illegals worked on his property. Rick seriously looks pissed. He interrupts Mitt again. Mitt smacks him down. The crowd's loving it.
6:45 - Anderson points out Cain's "joke" about the border fence being electrified.
6:48 - Wow, First Officer Bachmann just said Obama's aunt and uncle are here in the US illegally and she'd deport them. She then says she wants a fence across the entire border. She will "enforce" English as official language of US.
6:49 - Perry, "by the time that fence gets built, there's a lot better way..." There's a split-screen with Perry and Bachmann. Perry's looking at Bachmann, and Bachmann's looking at the pretty lights.
6:50 - Romney slams Perry again on illegal immigration. Perry accuses Mitt of being #1 in job magnets for illegals. Audience boos; they're not buying it. Mitt even gets in a "sounds like the audience agrees with me.:
6:51 - Question from the audience. A Latino man who points out there are plenty of Latinos in this country and most of them did not come here illegally; what's the GOP going to do for us? Anderson throws it to Newt with the preface that Obama got 67% of the Latino vote in 2008. Newt gives a magnanimous answer that'd shoot anyone else up in the polls. But it's Newt.
6:53 - Paul says we put people in groups too much.
6:55 - Cain says what'll appeal to all ethnic groups is his bold plan to boost the economy.
6:56 - Anderson asks Perry if he'd get rid of the 14th Amendment. (He asked Cain but Cain didn't answer.) Perry doesn't want to answer either; he wants to talk about increases in oil drilling and coal mining to boost the economy. Then Anderson asks again if Perry would repeal the 14th Amendment and he says no. AC swings it to Bachmann and she says "Anchor baby."
6:58 - What will Santorum do for Latinos? "Family, faith, values..." He'll prevent the erosion of marriage and family. "Look, I'm for jobs too."
7:00 - Paul mentions bringing troops home from Afghanistan, and the audience is thrilled.
7:02 - Newt & Paul debate where to put nuclear waste. Mitt comes down on Paul's side.
7:04 - Perry agrees with Mitt & Paul, as though someone slipped him a message that he needs to agree with someone on something STAT!
7:06 - Santorum tries to slam Perry, Romney and Cain for supporting TARP.
7:08 - Bachmann boasts of talking to "moms" across this country losing their "nests." "Hold on, moms, it's not too late!"
7:09 - Anderson now asks about OccupyWallStreet. Cain says OWS shouldn't be in front of Wall Street; they should be in front of the White House. Loud applause for Cain in standing by his statement that if you're unemployed you should blame yourself. These GOP crowds cheer the worst things sometimes. Boo the gay soldier, cheer Perry's executing 200 people, shouting "yes" to let an uninsured man die.
7:10 - Paul says Cain's blaming the victims. Paul on the bail-outs: "If you had to give money out, you should have given it to the people losing their homes, not the banks." Paul's strongest moment of the night.
7:14 - Commercial!
7:19 - Anderson asks Santorum about religion being an issue, specifically about Mormonism being a cult. Crowd boos. Santorum: "Pay attention to candidate's values." Applause. He points out he's a Catholic. AC throws it to Newt. "Does faith matter? Absolutely."
7:22 - AC asks Perry if he'll repudiate the pastor's comments. Perry dances around that but gets to freedom of religion. And people are free to express their opinion. "I didn't agree with it, Mitt."
7:23 - Mitt points out the pastor said we should choose who we vote for based on religion, which is against what the founders would want.
7:25 - Bachmann gets a foreign policy question, and she's terrified of "genocidal maniac" running Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
7:26 - Newt slams both parties for their foreign policy stupidity. "I'm a hawk, but I'm a cheap hawk." Laughs and applause.
7:28 - Cain's weakest when talking about foreign policy, like he just started learning about foreign policy a couple months ago. But he knows we need to be friends with Israel.
7:32 - Paul pleads with his fellow candidates to "Cut something!" Be specific!
7:34 - Rick Perry wants to defund the United Nations. Huh.
7:35 - Mitt Romney wants China to pick up more of the international humanitarian-aid slack around the world. And then he rattles off five things he'd cut to Paul. Paul says cutting foreign aid should be the easiest thing to cut. AC says "Even Israel?" "I'd treat all countries equally." Paul says foreign aid is taking money from poor Americans to give to rich people in poor countries, uses Egypt as example.
7:36 - Bachmann says no, don't cut foreign aid to Israel!
7:38 - Cain likes Reagan's foreign policy of "Peace through strength."
7:39 - Paul asks everyone else if they're willing to condemn Reagan for Iran-Contra. Santorum tries to defend it, but Newt points out Reagan himself said it was a terrible mistake.
7:45 - AC asks the room to applaud if they think Romney can beat Obama. Some applause. AC then says to Santorum he's polling at 1%, why does he think he can win? Santorum points out he's the only one who can win in a swing state (Pennsylvania). Um, Rick, you got killed in your last re-election bid. Says Perry ran as a Democrat, Romney ran as a liberal, and that Santorum ran as a conservative and beat "James Carville and Paul Begala."
7:46 - Romney points out the people want to nominate someone who can beat Obama and fix the economy, deflates Santorum. Perry then takes the opportunity to point out Massachusetts had slow job growth. Romney ties Perry into a pretzel and spits him out. Perry tries to counter with "You were a failure as governor" and the crowd boos. Perry keeps forgetting they're in Nevada, not Texas.
7:49 - AC asks Cain if Romney or Perry should be president, and Cain says "No I should be" but Cain's warmer to Romney than Perry.
7:51 - AC says we're out of time, and Newt and Bachmann whine. Bachmann says "The cake is baked and Barack Obama will be a one-term president!" Bachmann drops Reagan's name, then Newt says "Maximizing bickering is not the road to the White House" and gets in his obligatory slam of the media.
7:53 - AC summarizes for us, and we get a shot of one of Mitt Romney's sons shaking Cain's hand.
So how'd they do?
7. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Shrill, whiny, and pro-raising taxes on the poor. Um, yeah. Man, that Ames straw poll was a million years ago, wasn't it?
6. RICK SANTORUM - He can draw blood, but he does not do himself any favors. Giant jerk. He can only weaken opponents; he cannot lift himself up.
5. RON PAUL - He's willing to take positions that no one else will, even though there are Republicans who agree with him. And while it may help him win straw polls, I haven't seen evidence it'll translate into caucus and primary wins.
4. RICK PERRY - He was more animated than he's ever been, but it looked like Romney really got under his skin, like Rick's next plan is to get the rest of Cobra Kai together to jump Romney-san in the parking lot. Perry got the most boos tonight, but that doesn't mean he didn't play well with southern voters. I just think Perry safely eliminated himself from winning Nevada or New Hampshire.
3. HERMAN CAIN - He got piled on for his 999 plan, which is looking weaker by the day. But he's so darn likeable! He defends his plan with gusto, and to his credit, at least he has a plan. It's just one that won't work. I don't see him staying up top much longer.
2. NEWT GINGRICH - The peacemaker. If Jon Huntsman had Newt's ideas and style in debates, he'd be a co-top-tier candidate. But he's Newt freaking Gingrich, the guy who was having an affair while slamming Clinton for the Lewinsky scandal, the guy who left his ailing second wife to hook up with his third.
1. MITT ROMNEY - He was ganged up on a bit there, and yet he emerged from him it, not unscathed, but he didn't lose. He still won. He looks like he's already positioning his campaign to a general-election campaign. He pushed back against the rudeness of the twin Ricks and looked like the better man after the dust settled.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
GOP Bloomberg debate
"Hi, I'm Charlie Rose--"
"Hi, I'm Katy Perry..."
That didn't just happen to me, did it? We got a weirdly crammed-in Proactiv commercial with Katy Perry before cutting back to the debate, and who gets the first question? Flavor of the week Herman Cain, that's who. It's on the economy.
CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan is bold.
PERRY - I think my plan's pretty bold for the energy industry. I'll lay out my plan in 3 days. It's time for energy independence. I have experience in reaching across the aisle.
ROMNEY - We need a leader. Obama had no leadership experience.
PERRY - "Youv'e had two months; what's your plan?" We need to pull back those regulations that are strangling the economy, doesn't matter if it's ObamaCare or Dodd-Frank, I'll lay out my plan in 3 days, not telling it all to you now. Mitt's had 6 years to lay out his 59-point plan; I've only been running for prez for 8 weeks.
BACHMANN - "Banks got bailed out and they paid themselves huge bonuses. Do u think it's right no Wall Street person has gone to jail for ruining the economy?" It was the federal govt's fault, it was Frank and Dodd that pushed govt-directed housing goals. Banks had to meet those lending rules. It began with Freddie and Fannie. Dodd-Frank institutionalized the problems with the bank.
GINGRICH - "Do the #OWS protesters have no grievance?" No, they're two groups protesting. One is left-wing agitators, the others are decent, concerned Americans. The former are proud to trash the place, the latter pick up after themselves. If you want to put people in jail, start with Dodd and Frank. Look at the Countrywide deal, the lobbyists they're close to. Everyone in the media who wants to go after Wall St. ought to start with the politicians. (applause) Bernanke has spent billions bailing out one group and not helping another group. It's corrupt and wrong.
PAUL - "Where do you come down on the Fed?" (laughter) $5 billion went to bail out foreign banks. We need to audit Fed. To understand the recession, you have to understand the Fed. The cause is the booms, bubbles, easy credit. They burst.
SANTORUM - "Can manufacturing jobs return?" Yes. I don't know any businessmen in PA who wanted to lose those jobs. [um, how many CEO's did he talk to?] The cool thing about my plan as opposed to Herman's is mine would pass.
HUNTSMAN - "Shouldn't the focus now be on the innovative jobs of tomorrow." I would disagree with Rick that PA is gas capital of country. DC is gas capital of country. When we lose out on innovation, entrepreneurship, we lose jobs to Chinese and Indians. We need a marketplace where we can transform innovation into products. Taxes, regulations holding us back.
GINGRICH - "Medicare is going broke; considering 1/2 of all Medicare spending is done in last 2 years of life, do u consider this wasteful spending?" Glad you asked. Do I want some DC bureaucrat to have say in med treatment? No. Palin was right about death panels. I'm opposed to class intervention for these things.
BACHMANN - "How can we be sure our Medicare spending isn't wasteful?" We know Medicare's going broke. We asked Obama 3 times what his plan was to save Medicare. 3rd time he said ObamaCare. [I'm sure that's exactly what he said.] 15 political appointees will make all the medical decisions under ObamaCare. [My bullcrap meter just went haywire.]
HUNTSMAN - "Who do you seek for economic advise, what type of people?" My father. Started with nothing, built up a great company. Our flat tax in Utah took it to #1 in job creation. Who on Earth from private sector would want to give up privacy to get into govt? We have a professional governing class on one end and private-sector on the other. Let's go back to a more open system where private-sector people can serve for a time and then go back to private life. "What do you think of Cain's 9-9-9 plan?" I thought it was the price of a pizza. (Laughter.) We need a bipartisan approach to tax reform. Simpson-Bowles had a lot of good in it.
CAIN - 9-9-9 will pass and it is well studied. Throw out the current tax code. This is why we developed 9-9-9. It will pass. "Who do you turn to for economic advise?" The American people. Also, Rich Lowrie. He's created wealth most of his career.
ROMNEY - "European debt has worsened. Global financial system is on the brink. What would you do different from Bush, Paulsen, Bernanke did in 2008?" That's a hypothetical. "No it's not. It's a very real threat." It's still hypothetical. But I can tell you I won't need to call Tim Geitner and say How does the economy work? If you think the entire world's finances are going to collapse, you take immediate action. I'm not interested in bailing out individual institutions. "Would you be open to the idea of another Wall St bailout?" No one wants that. "But would you do it again, you supported it in 2008." We were on the precipice. Was it perfect? No. Should they have used the funds to bail out GM & Chrysler? No. 'Do you agree with Gingrich about Bernanke?" I'd choose someone else. "Who?" I haven't chosen a replacement, I haven't chosen a VP, I might not be the nominee, slow down. I wish we could find Milton Friedman again, but I have respect for [lists three names]. I believe in drawing from the best minds in the country. I know how to protect American jobs. "So there's no institution too big to fail?" No, but you need to make sure we don't lose our country. Bailouts of individual institutions? No one wants that.
CAIN - "Did you support bailout?" I agree with Romney; the way it was implemented was wrong.
GINGRICH - Can I say something before we move on? Paulsen and Geitner didn't have a clue. Not that they're not smart; they just didn't know what was going to happen next. We're no better prepared now than we were then.
PAUL - Remember we need to get rid of the debt. It is the main burden on the economy.
Commercial break. The cut-away music sounds like something out of The Dark Knight.
When they come back, we get the last word of a Reagan quote.
PERRY - Different times. He was willing to raise taxes in exchange for spending reductions, but the reductions never came. We need a Balanced-Budget amendment. (quick light applause).
ROMNEY - "Don't we need compromise, like Reagan suggested?" The % of fed spending on economy keeps increasing. We need to get our economy growing. Raising taxes and cutting spending might work, but we really need to get the economy going. "Do you want to cut defense, or--" It's a terrible idea to cut defense, but to raise taxes is wrong. I want to see that supercommittee take responsibility to reform entitlements. "W/o any increase in revenue?"
GINGRICH - I want to say something here. The prez showed no leadership so they passed a stupid bill, where the choice is for a supercommittee to say around Thanksgiving, do you want to shoot yourself in the head or cut off your leg? It's stupid.
BACHMANN - Let's not give Obama another $2.4 trillion blank check to spend. {*sigh*. If it's for $2.4 trillion, it's not blank.] The travesty is that they spend $1.5 trillion mroe than that. Every year we spend 40% more of what we take in.
Here's a clip of Herman Cain giving his 9-9-9 plan.
CAIN - "The analysis shows your plan would've brought in less revenue and would still add a 9% natl tax on food and medicine." The analysis is wrong. 9-9-9 expands the base. [i.e. raises taxes on the middle-class and poor.] Independent firms scored it. "Under your plan, all Americans will pay more for milk, bread and beer." [someone jokes 'and pizza!'] The people will have the flexibility to choose how they spend more of their money.
BACHMANN - 9-9-9 is not a jobs plan, it's a tax plan. It gives Congress a pipeline of natl sales tax. This'd open the doot for VAT. [then she makes a joke about turning 9-9-9 upside down and the devil's in the details.]
Here's a clip of Romney calling China a currency manipulator.
HUNTSMAN - "If China's keeping its currency low, that means everything we buy from them is artifically cheap." I don't subscribe to the Donald Trump or Mitt Romney school of international trade. Trade wars disadvantages our small businesses and agricultures. We have no choice; we have to find common ground.
ROMNEY - You think China doesn't want a trade war? They're artificially keeping their prices low which is hurting jobs here. They're a currency manipulator. If you're not willing to stand up to China you'll get run over by them.
PERRY - We're missing this so much. We need to focus on getting America working again. We're sitting on treasure trove of energy. Pull regulations back. The manufacturing will come back. Free up this country's entrepreneurs.
Question from Honeywell CEO. "What would be on your American competitiveness agenda? Please focus on specifics."
SANTORUM - I already put forth a plan. I don't want to go to war with China; I want to beat China. How many people here want a national sales tax; raise your hand. [very few] There you go, Herman.
Charlie Rose then mentions if you keep mentioning 9-9-9 I have to go back to Herman Cain for every other question.
CAIN - Thank you.
SANTORUM - Wait, I've only had one question. I have experience-- "Time!" and I get it done-- "Time!"
CAIN - They want to pass what they think they can pass. 9-9-9 is a bold solution.
ROMNEY - We have to appeal ObamaCare. We have to return it to the states. We all agree with repeal and replace. And I'm proud I actually have a plan of something to replace it with.
HUNTSMAN - It's disingenuous. You can't just waive it away. ObamaCare is here.
Commercial break. Cut-away music is like something out of Braveheart, when the men are cleaning their swords right before they go to battle.
We're back. Matt Dowd and Trenchcoat Lady give their halftime analysis. Dowd's amused so much attention has been applied to Cain. Also found Perry weak for saying "I'll give you my plan in three days." Interested by the tension between Romney and Huntsman on China.
Another commercial break. And we're back with the Dark Knight-esque music.
Charlie Rose lets us know the candidates can now question each other. Going alphabetically.
BACHMANN to PERRY - "Reagan produced an economic miracle in the 1980's, but you were campaigning for Al Gore. Debt increased 50% in Texas. How can we trust you not to go down the Obama way?" I grew up a Democrat. I came to the GOP sooner in age than Reagan did. Texas has the 6th lowest debt per-capita when I started. Now it's 2nd.
CAIN to ROMNEY - "My 9-9-9 plan is transparent, fair and neutral. Can you name your 59-point plan and is it transparent, fair and neutral." Simple answers are nice but sometimes they're inadequate. Part of my plan deals with jobs, part with trade, we stop the cheating that goes on. It deals with rule of law. We have to have institutions that create human capital. We need great schools. We need govt that doesn't spend more than it takes in. 'So it's not simple." To get this economy going it'll take a lot.
GINGRICH to ROMNEY - "There's a lot in your plan I like, but it surprises me in your plan you have a capital-gains tax for only those lower than $200,000 a year." We give a tax break to middle America becuz they're the ones hurt most by this economy. I want to focus on the middle.
HUNTSMAN to ROMNEY - "I promise this won't be about religion." (uncomfortable titters) "Sorry about that, Rick. As former CEO of Bain Capital, a company that breaks down businesses and sells them off, and as governor of Mass. which was #47 in job creation when Utah was #1, how can you win the job-creation debate given your background?" Well, my background is much different than you describe. Bain Capital helped start businesses. We started Staples, the Sports Authority, we started a steel mill in Indiana. We net-created 10's of thousands of jobs.
PAUL to CAIN - "Since Fed is engine of interest rates and our ecomony, in the past youv'e been critical of those who would want to see them audited. You said no need for audit. Now we've found out how special businesses and companies and foreign countries get picked, do you still feel this way?" You've misquoted me. Be careful of what you get off the internet. When I was on Fed board in 1990's, we didn't do anything this Fed board is doing. I do not object to the Fed being audited. If someone wants to do that, go ahead. It doesn't bother me; it's not my top priority. My top priority is 9-9-9.
PERRY to ROMNEY - "Your advisor said ObamaCare is RomneyCare. How do you respond?" The great thing about running for prez is you can boast about your record. In Mass. we saw we had 8% uninsured so we dealt with them. Obama's not just dealing with the uninsured, he deals with everyone and he's raising taxes. And cutting Medicare. Obama cut Medicare. Mass. has lowest state of kids uninsured, Texas is highest uninsured. It was going down under Bush, it went up under you. As prez, I will repeal ObamaCare.
Rose tries to go to Santorum, but he points out ROmney's next. R before S. Many laughs at Rose's expense. Romney: "You'd think a PBS employee would know that."
ROMNEY to BACHMANN - "You've laid out bold ideas for scaling back govt, but expand on your ideas on helping Americans get back to work. Beyond tax policies, how are you going to help young people get back to work?" Go to my website. It's not just the tax-code. It's dealing with the regulations. I started my own business; I get job creation too.
[I think Romney pitched a softball to her to help her out. If she can rise back up in the polls, it only helps Romney.]
SANTORUM to CAIN - "I opposed the TARP program, it violated the spirit of our Constitution. The people on this panel who supported TARP are trying to saying they're the anti-DC crowd. My question is since Cain is naively giving DC a tool to Congress with natl sales tax, how do we know you won't give DC more tools?" There are three deterrants. The American people will hold Congress's feet to the fire, and as prez, I won't sign anything that raises taxes above 9-9-9.
Commercial break.
PERRY - "Health care." People are sitting around the kitchen table [about the fifth reference tonight to people sitting around the kitchen table] trying to figure out how to pay for insurance. The real issue for us is giving flexibility to Medicaid. Govnrs Jindal in LA [endorsed Perry] and Martinex in NM understand this too. "Texas has had 16 waivers for Medicaid." States shouldn't have to go to DC and ask Mother May I every time they have an idea.
CAIN - "One of the most important appointments you'd make would be Fed chairman. Who have you liked over the past 40 years?" Alan Greenspan. The way he oversaw the Fed, the way he coordinated with banks, I thought it worked fine in the 1990's. I have two names I will not give I'd considered to appoint as new Fed chairman if elected. I've got to keep them confidential.
PAUL - Spoken like an insider. Greenspan was a disaster. (applause). I'd say Paul Volcker at least knew how to end inflation. Nobody satisfies me. Greenspan ushered in the biggest bubble, but Bernanke inflated worse than Greenspan.
Audience question: "Business like mine have difficulty attaining credit. How to help?"
ROMNEY - Dodd and Frank were the wrong guys at the wrong time to usher in new legislation to implement financial regulations. Small businesses can't possibly deal with it. Small banks are starving becuz inspectors are making their jobs impossible.
BACHMANN - Dodd-Frank is the Jobs & Housing Destruction Act. I spoke with a banker who said he'd lose $20 million this year becuz of all the compliance. That's why we see this new $5 debit card fee. We need to end payoffs to political donors.
CAIN - I agree, repeal Dodd-Frank. Get rid of the capital gains tax. We know which plan gets rid of the capital gains tax.
PAUL - Yes, get rid of Dodd-Frank. Sarbanes-Oxley needs to be repealed too. [Woo-hoo!] Republicans did that; we hurt ourselves. Not all problems started in the last 3 years.
PERRY - "Your own state auditor had problems." We feel like there's been extraordinary oversight in Texas. That's why we went up in jobs net while US went down.
Video clip of G.W. Bush saying the more that own homes, the better off we'll be.
GINGRICH - There's a stream of American thought that wishes the US would wither and weaken so the govt could take over. It started with Carter and the malaise speech. I'm shocked the House reps haven't repealed Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley.
CAIN - The Wall St. protestors should be targetting the government, not Wall Street.
ROMNEY - "If the Bush tax cuts are not extended, that means a tax increase for everyone." No one wants to see tax increases. Obama's jobs plan keep yielding no results. You need to not have temporary tax cuts. That creates uncertainty. "You'd be okay with the temporary payroll tax cut expiring...?" I don't like little temporary band-aid tax cuts.
PERRY - "Over the last 30 years, the wealthiest 1% income has grown by over 300%, but we have more in poverty now than ever. is that fair; what would you do to change that?" The reason we have so many in pvoerty is because this prez is a job-killer. That's what's wrong with US today. He's overtaxed, overregulated. [how many taxes has Obama raised since he's been in office?] They're laying off people.
SANTORUM - Part of the poverty problem is the breakdown of the American family. We need to talk about economics in the home. It's our foundation as a country. You can't have a wealthy society w/o family. We need to encourage marriage.
[someone in the audience yells something angry at Santorum]
Charlie Rose asks for closing statements.
BACHMANN - We don't need Big Govt to step in if we as a society take care of each other.
CAIN - I was po' before I was poor. My dad worked three jobs. Our leaders need to surround themselves with the right people to make the right decisions. We need a bold plan.
GINGRICH - I grew up as an Army brat. Voters aren't going to hire us becuz we say "We sympathize with you. They hire us becuz we say 'This is how we'll solve it.' Every person at tis table is more likely to solve it than Obama. (mild applause)
PAUL - We have to understand what libery is all about. Free market and sound money is key to success. I want to restore American greatness.
SANTORUM - When manufacturing leaves, middle America leaves. Upward mobility is greater in Europe than America today. I will bring back manufacturing jobs.
HUNTSMAN - I've participated in growing a company that creates jobs, I presided over a state with 2.4% unemployment. We're seeing a rise of spousal abuse, suicides, etc. you see the impact of the dignity of having a job.
PERRY - I've got CEO experience and wokring with private sector in creating jobs. That's what people are begging for.
ROMNEY - People are out of work, incomes going down. Being American means confidence in the future. We need a leader who believes in America. I'm absolutely devoted to making America strong.
Charlie Rose thanks us for watching.
Some of my impressions:
- What yahoos are running the Bloomberg channel? Commercials just suddenly start in the middle of the show, then it cuts back too late. I guess they're still young.
- Ultimately this debate won't matter much, but I hope it influences the way future debates go. Having the candidates question each other was more interesting than the moderators doing it.
How would I rank them?
8. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She's fading into the background and seems most likely to say something wildly inaccurate. She really finds NO fault with bankers or Wall Street in our current economic situation? The softball Romney pitched to her, she bunted with platitudes.
7. RICK SANTORUM - He serves as a nice attack dog in the debate, which might hurt those he attacks but never himself. He helped hurt Perry in a previous debate, and he landed the strongest blow against Cain in this debate, but does that mean more votes for himself? No. You don't want to be the only candidate that illicits angry shouting from the audience.
6. RICK PERRY - The moderators and fellow candidates treated him like a second-tier candidate, and he did nothing to dispel that. This is his, what, fourth debate? And he still doesn't have a plan? Has he not noticed what his trajectory is? He's still too general and too simplistic on the economy. Income disparity over the past 30 years is not solely because of Obama.
5. JON HUNTSMAN - Most likely to crack a joke, and half of them fell flat. I'd like to hear Huntsman and Romney debate China more. It's still too crowded a field for him to emerge, but he's more likely to be one of the first to be asked to leave.
4. RON PAUL - The guy wins straw polls no matter what he says in debates. But his slam on Greenspan right after Cain praised him was quite effective. And it would sure make my life easier if Sarbanes-Oxley was repealed.
3. NEWT GINGRICH - For a guy who started these debates as the cranky one, he now seems to be going on a charm offensive. I think it's working. If Cain can suddenly go from "why is he here?" to #1 Not-Romney candidate in less than a month, Newt could pull something off. I just don't see him overcoming his bio.
2. HERMAN CAIN - He hammered his 9-9-9 plan early and often. Doesn't seem to matter that it'll raise taxes on the poor while lowering taxes on the rich. It's simple and easy to understand, and Cain's message is catching fire. He was treated like the co-front-runner and responded well to the heat. I think he may be damaged over time for praising Greenspan as the best Fed head in the past 40 years, and the fact that one of the 9's in his 9-9-9 is a national sales tax.
1. MITT ROMNEY - Again, no one touched him, though Huntsman seemed to be the only one willing to try. The closest anyone came was when one of the questioners tried to pinpoint Romney on Europe's economy possibly collapsing, and he didn't want to answer a "hypothetical." I would say he has New Hampshite sewn up.
"Hi, I'm Katy Perry..."
That didn't just happen to me, did it? We got a weirdly crammed-in Proactiv commercial with Katy Perry before cutting back to the debate, and who gets the first question? Flavor of the week Herman Cain, that's who. It's on the economy.
CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan is bold.
PERRY - I think my plan's pretty bold for the energy industry. I'll lay out my plan in 3 days. It's time for energy independence. I have experience in reaching across the aisle.
ROMNEY - We need a leader. Obama had no leadership experience.
PERRY - "Youv'e had two months; what's your plan?" We need to pull back those regulations that are strangling the economy, doesn't matter if it's ObamaCare or Dodd-Frank, I'll lay out my plan in 3 days, not telling it all to you now. Mitt's had 6 years to lay out his 59-point plan; I've only been running for prez for 8 weeks.
BACHMANN - "Banks got bailed out and they paid themselves huge bonuses. Do u think it's right no Wall Street person has gone to jail for ruining the economy?" It was the federal govt's fault, it was Frank and Dodd that pushed govt-directed housing goals. Banks had to meet those lending rules. It began with Freddie and Fannie. Dodd-Frank institutionalized the problems with the bank.
GINGRICH - "Do the #OWS protesters have no grievance?" No, they're two groups protesting. One is left-wing agitators, the others are decent, concerned Americans. The former are proud to trash the place, the latter pick up after themselves. If you want to put people in jail, start with Dodd and Frank. Look at the Countrywide deal, the lobbyists they're close to. Everyone in the media who wants to go after Wall St. ought to start with the politicians. (applause) Bernanke has spent billions bailing out one group and not helping another group. It's corrupt and wrong.
PAUL - "Where do you come down on the Fed?" (laughter) $5 billion went to bail out foreign banks. We need to audit Fed. To understand the recession, you have to understand the Fed. The cause is the booms, bubbles, easy credit. They burst.
SANTORUM - "Can manufacturing jobs return?" Yes. I don't know any businessmen in PA who wanted to lose those jobs. [um, how many CEO's did he talk to?] The cool thing about my plan as opposed to Herman's is mine would pass.
HUNTSMAN - "Shouldn't the focus now be on the innovative jobs of tomorrow." I would disagree with Rick that PA is gas capital of country. DC is gas capital of country. When we lose out on innovation, entrepreneurship, we lose jobs to Chinese and Indians. We need a marketplace where we can transform innovation into products. Taxes, regulations holding us back.
GINGRICH - "Medicare is going broke; considering 1/2 of all Medicare spending is done in last 2 years of life, do u consider this wasteful spending?" Glad you asked. Do I want some DC bureaucrat to have say in med treatment? No. Palin was right about death panels. I'm opposed to class intervention for these things.
BACHMANN - "How can we be sure our Medicare spending isn't wasteful?" We know Medicare's going broke. We asked Obama 3 times what his plan was to save Medicare. 3rd time he said ObamaCare. [I'm sure that's exactly what he said.] 15 political appointees will make all the medical decisions under ObamaCare. [My bullcrap meter just went haywire.]
HUNTSMAN - "Who do you seek for economic advise, what type of people?" My father. Started with nothing, built up a great company. Our flat tax in Utah took it to #1 in job creation. Who on Earth from private sector would want to give up privacy to get into govt? We have a professional governing class on one end and private-sector on the other. Let's go back to a more open system where private-sector people can serve for a time and then go back to private life. "What do you think of Cain's 9-9-9 plan?" I thought it was the price of a pizza. (Laughter.) We need a bipartisan approach to tax reform. Simpson-Bowles had a lot of good in it.
CAIN - 9-9-9 will pass and it is well studied. Throw out the current tax code. This is why we developed 9-9-9. It will pass. "Who do you turn to for economic advise?" The American people. Also, Rich Lowrie. He's created wealth most of his career.
ROMNEY - "European debt has worsened. Global financial system is on the brink. What would you do different from Bush, Paulsen, Bernanke did in 2008?" That's a hypothetical. "No it's not. It's a very real threat." It's still hypothetical. But I can tell you I won't need to call Tim Geitner and say How does the economy work? If you think the entire world's finances are going to collapse, you take immediate action. I'm not interested in bailing out individual institutions. "Would you be open to the idea of another Wall St bailout?" No one wants that. "But would you do it again, you supported it in 2008." We were on the precipice. Was it perfect? No. Should they have used the funds to bail out GM & Chrysler? No. 'Do you agree with Gingrich about Bernanke?" I'd choose someone else. "Who?" I haven't chosen a replacement, I haven't chosen a VP, I might not be the nominee, slow down. I wish we could find Milton Friedman again, but I have respect for [lists three names]. I believe in drawing from the best minds in the country. I know how to protect American jobs. "So there's no institution too big to fail?" No, but you need to make sure we don't lose our country. Bailouts of individual institutions? No one wants that.
CAIN - "Did you support bailout?" I agree with Romney; the way it was implemented was wrong.
GINGRICH - Can I say something before we move on? Paulsen and Geitner didn't have a clue. Not that they're not smart; they just didn't know what was going to happen next. We're no better prepared now than we were then.
PAUL - Remember we need to get rid of the debt. It is the main burden on the economy.
Commercial break. The cut-away music sounds like something out of The Dark Knight.
When they come back, we get the last word of a Reagan quote.
PERRY - Different times. He was willing to raise taxes in exchange for spending reductions, but the reductions never came. We need a Balanced-Budget amendment. (quick light applause).
ROMNEY - "Don't we need compromise, like Reagan suggested?" The % of fed spending on economy keeps increasing. We need to get our economy growing. Raising taxes and cutting spending might work, but we really need to get the economy going. "Do you want to cut defense, or--" It's a terrible idea to cut defense, but to raise taxes is wrong. I want to see that supercommittee take responsibility to reform entitlements. "W/o any increase in revenue?"
GINGRICH - I want to say something here. The prez showed no leadership so they passed a stupid bill, where the choice is for a supercommittee to say around Thanksgiving, do you want to shoot yourself in the head or cut off your leg? It's stupid.
BACHMANN - Let's not give Obama another $2.4 trillion blank check to spend. {*sigh*. If it's for $2.4 trillion, it's not blank.] The travesty is that they spend $1.5 trillion mroe than that. Every year we spend 40% more of what we take in.
Here's a clip of Herman Cain giving his 9-9-9 plan.
CAIN - "The analysis shows your plan would've brought in less revenue and would still add a 9% natl tax on food and medicine." The analysis is wrong. 9-9-9 expands the base. [i.e. raises taxes on the middle-class and poor.] Independent firms scored it. "Under your plan, all Americans will pay more for milk, bread and beer." [someone jokes 'and pizza!'] The people will have the flexibility to choose how they spend more of their money.
BACHMANN - 9-9-9 is not a jobs plan, it's a tax plan. It gives Congress a pipeline of natl sales tax. This'd open the doot for VAT. [then she makes a joke about turning 9-9-9 upside down and the devil's in the details.]
Here's a clip of Romney calling China a currency manipulator.
HUNTSMAN - "If China's keeping its currency low, that means everything we buy from them is artifically cheap." I don't subscribe to the Donald Trump or Mitt Romney school of international trade. Trade wars disadvantages our small businesses and agricultures. We have no choice; we have to find common ground.
ROMNEY - You think China doesn't want a trade war? They're artificially keeping their prices low which is hurting jobs here. They're a currency manipulator. If you're not willing to stand up to China you'll get run over by them.
PERRY - We're missing this so much. We need to focus on getting America working again. We're sitting on treasure trove of energy. Pull regulations back. The manufacturing will come back. Free up this country's entrepreneurs.
Question from Honeywell CEO. "What would be on your American competitiveness agenda? Please focus on specifics."
SANTORUM - I already put forth a plan. I don't want to go to war with China; I want to beat China. How many people here want a national sales tax; raise your hand. [very few] There you go, Herman.
Charlie Rose then mentions if you keep mentioning 9-9-9 I have to go back to Herman Cain for every other question.
CAIN - Thank you.
SANTORUM - Wait, I've only had one question. I have experience-- "Time!" and I get it done-- "Time!"
CAIN - They want to pass what they think they can pass. 9-9-9 is a bold solution.
ROMNEY - We have to appeal ObamaCare. We have to return it to the states. We all agree with repeal and replace. And I'm proud I actually have a plan of something to replace it with.
HUNTSMAN - It's disingenuous. You can't just waive it away. ObamaCare is here.
Commercial break. Cut-away music is like something out of Braveheart, when the men are cleaning their swords right before they go to battle.
We're back. Matt Dowd and Trenchcoat Lady give their halftime analysis. Dowd's amused so much attention has been applied to Cain. Also found Perry weak for saying "I'll give you my plan in three days." Interested by the tension between Romney and Huntsman on China.
Another commercial break. And we're back with the Dark Knight-esque music.
Charlie Rose lets us know the candidates can now question each other. Going alphabetically.
BACHMANN to PERRY - "Reagan produced an economic miracle in the 1980's, but you were campaigning for Al Gore. Debt increased 50% in Texas. How can we trust you not to go down the Obama way?" I grew up a Democrat. I came to the GOP sooner in age than Reagan did. Texas has the 6th lowest debt per-capita when I started. Now it's 2nd.
CAIN to ROMNEY - "My 9-9-9 plan is transparent, fair and neutral. Can you name your 59-point plan and is it transparent, fair and neutral." Simple answers are nice but sometimes they're inadequate. Part of my plan deals with jobs, part with trade, we stop the cheating that goes on. It deals with rule of law. We have to have institutions that create human capital. We need great schools. We need govt that doesn't spend more than it takes in. 'So it's not simple." To get this economy going it'll take a lot.
GINGRICH to ROMNEY - "There's a lot in your plan I like, but it surprises me in your plan you have a capital-gains tax for only those lower than $200,000 a year." We give a tax break to middle America becuz they're the ones hurt most by this economy. I want to focus on the middle.
HUNTSMAN to ROMNEY - "I promise this won't be about religion." (uncomfortable titters) "Sorry about that, Rick. As former CEO of Bain Capital, a company that breaks down businesses and sells them off, and as governor of Mass. which was #47 in job creation when Utah was #1, how can you win the job-creation debate given your background?" Well, my background is much different than you describe. Bain Capital helped start businesses. We started Staples, the Sports Authority, we started a steel mill in Indiana. We net-created 10's of thousands of jobs.
PAUL to CAIN - "Since Fed is engine of interest rates and our ecomony, in the past youv'e been critical of those who would want to see them audited. You said no need for audit. Now we've found out how special businesses and companies and foreign countries get picked, do you still feel this way?" You've misquoted me. Be careful of what you get off the internet. When I was on Fed board in 1990's, we didn't do anything this Fed board is doing. I do not object to the Fed being audited. If someone wants to do that, go ahead. It doesn't bother me; it's not my top priority. My top priority is 9-9-9.
PERRY to ROMNEY - "Your advisor said ObamaCare is RomneyCare. How do you respond?" The great thing about running for prez is you can boast about your record. In Mass. we saw we had 8% uninsured so we dealt with them. Obama's not just dealing with the uninsured, he deals with everyone and he's raising taxes. And cutting Medicare. Obama cut Medicare. Mass. has lowest state of kids uninsured, Texas is highest uninsured. It was going down under Bush, it went up under you. As prez, I will repeal ObamaCare.
Rose tries to go to Santorum, but he points out ROmney's next. R before S. Many laughs at Rose's expense. Romney: "You'd think a PBS employee would know that."
ROMNEY to BACHMANN - "You've laid out bold ideas for scaling back govt, but expand on your ideas on helping Americans get back to work. Beyond tax policies, how are you going to help young people get back to work?" Go to my website. It's not just the tax-code. It's dealing with the regulations. I started my own business; I get job creation too.
[I think Romney pitched a softball to her to help her out. If she can rise back up in the polls, it only helps Romney.]
SANTORUM to CAIN - "I opposed the TARP program, it violated the spirit of our Constitution. The people on this panel who supported TARP are trying to saying they're the anti-DC crowd. My question is since Cain is naively giving DC a tool to Congress with natl sales tax, how do we know you won't give DC more tools?" There are three deterrants. The American people will hold Congress's feet to the fire, and as prez, I won't sign anything that raises taxes above 9-9-9.
Commercial break.
PERRY - "Health care." People are sitting around the kitchen table [about the fifth reference tonight to people sitting around the kitchen table] trying to figure out how to pay for insurance. The real issue for us is giving flexibility to Medicaid. Govnrs Jindal in LA [endorsed Perry] and Martinex in NM understand this too. "Texas has had 16 waivers for Medicaid." States shouldn't have to go to DC and ask Mother May I every time they have an idea.
CAIN - "One of the most important appointments you'd make would be Fed chairman. Who have you liked over the past 40 years?" Alan Greenspan. The way he oversaw the Fed, the way he coordinated with banks, I thought it worked fine in the 1990's. I have two names I will not give I'd considered to appoint as new Fed chairman if elected. I've got to keep them confidential.
PAUL - Spoken like an insider. Greenspan was a disaster. (applause). I'd say Paul Volcker at least knew how to end inflation. Nobody satisfies me. Greenspan ushered in the biggest bubble, but Bernanke inflated worse than Greenspan.
Audience question: "Business like mine have difficulty attaining credit. How to help?"
ROMNEY - Dodd and Frank were the wrong guys at the wrong time to usher in new legislation to implement financial regulations. Small businesses can't possibly deal with it. Small banks are starving becuz inspectors are making their jobs impossible.
BACHMANN - Dodd-Frank is the Jobs & Housing Destruction Act. I spoke with a banker who said he'd lose $20 million this year becuz of all the compliance. That's why we see this new $5 debit card fee. We need to end payoffs to political donors.
CAIN - I agree, repeal Dodd-Frank. Get rid of the capital gains tax. We know which plan gets rid of the capital gains tax.
PAUL - Yes, get rid of Dodd-Frank. Sarbanes-Oxley needs to be repealed too. [Woo-hoo!] Republicans did that; we hurt ourselves. Not all problems started in the last 3 years.
PERRY - "Your own state auditor had problems." We feel like there's been extraordinary oversight in Texas. That's why we went up in jobs net while US went down.
Video clip of G.W. Bush saying the more that own homes, the better off we'll be.
GINGRICH - There's a stream of American thought that wishes the US would wither and weaken so the govt could take over. It started with Carter and the malaise speech. I'm shocked the House reps haven't repealed Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley.
CAIN - The Wall St. protestors should be targetting the government, not Wall Street.
ROMNEY - "If the Bush tax cuts are not extended, that means a tax increase for everyone." No one wants to see tax increases. Obama's jobs plan keep yielding no results. You need to not have temporary tax cuts. That creates uncertainty. "You'd be okay with the temporary payroll tax cut expiring...?" I don't like little temporary band-aid tax cuts.
PERRY - "Over the last 30 years, the wealthiest 1% income has grown by over 300%, but we have more in poverty now than ever. is that fair; what would you do to change that?" The reason we have so many in pvoerty is because this prez is a job-killer. That's what's wrong with US today. He's overtaxed, overregulated. [how many taxes has Obama raised since he's been in office?] They're laying off people.
SANTORUM - Part of the poverty problem is the breakdown of the American family. We need to talk about economics in the home. It's our foundation as a country. You can't have a wealthy society w/o family. We need to encourage marriage.
[someone in the audience yells something angry at Santorum]
Charlie Rose asks for closing statements.
BACHMANN - We don't need Big Govt to step in if we as a society take care of each other.
CAIN - I was po' before I was poor. My dad worked three jobs. Our leaders need to surround themselves with the right people to make the right decisions. We need a bold plan.
GINGRICH - I grew up as an Army brat. Voters aren't going to hire us becuz we say "We sympathize with you. They hire us becuz we say 'This is how we'll solve it.' Every person at tis table is more likely to solve it than Obama. (mild applause)
PAUL - We have to understand what libery is all about. Free market and sound money is key to success. I want to restore American greatness.
SANTORUM - When manufacturing leaves, middle America leaves. Upward mobility is greater in Europe than America today. I will bring back manufacturing jobs.
HUNTSMAN - I've participated in growing a company that creates jobs, I presided over a state with 2.4% unemployment. We're seeing a rise of spousal abuse, suicides, etc. you see the impact of the dignity of having a job.
PERRY - I've got CEO experience and wokring with private sector in creating jobs. That's what people are begging for.
ROMNEY - People are out of work, incomes going down. Being American means confidence in the future. We need a leader who believes in America. I'm absolutely devoted to making America strong.
Charlie Rose thanks us for watching.
Some of my impressions:
- What yahoos are running the Bloomberg channel? Commercials just suddenly start in the middle of the show, then it cuts back too late. I guess they're still young.
- Ultimately this debate won't matter much, but I hope it influences the way future debates go. Having the candidates question each other was more interesting than the moderators doing it.
How would I rank them?
8. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She's fading into the background and seems most likely to say something wildly inaccurate. She really finds NO fault with bankers or Wall Street in our current economic situation? The softball Romney pitched to her, she bunted with platitudes.
7. RICK SANTORUM - He serves as a nice attack dog in the debate, which might hurt those he attacks but never himself. He helped hurt Perry in a previous debate, and he landed the strongest blow against Cain in this debate, but does that mean more votes for himself? No. You don't want to be the only candidate that illicits angry shouting from the audience.
6. RICK PERRY - The moderators and fellow candidates treated him like a second-tier candidate, and he did nothing to dispel that. This is his, what, fourth debate? And he still doesn't have a plan? Has he not noticed what his trajectory is? He's still too general and too simplistic on the economy. Income disparity over the past 30 years is not solely because of Obama.
5. JON HUNTSMAN - Most likely to crack a joke, and half of them fell flat. I'd like to hear Huntsman and Romney debate China more. It's still too crowded a field for him to emerge, but he's more likely to be one of the first to be asked to leave.
4. RON PAUL - The guy wins straw polls no matter what he says in debates. But his slam on Greenspan right after Cain praised him was quite effective. And it would sure make my life easier if Sarbanes-Oxley was repealed.
3. NEWT GINGRICH - For a guy who started these debates as the cranky one, he now seems to be going on a charm offensive. I think it's working. If Cain can suddenly go from "why is he here?" to #1 Not-Romney candidate in less than a month, Newt could pull something off. I just don't see him overcoming his bio.
2. HERMAN CAIN - He hammered his 9-9-9 plan early and often. Doesn't seem to matter that it'll raise taxes on the poor while lowering taxes on the rich. It's simple and easy to understand, and Cain's message is catching fire. He was treated like the co-front-runner and responded well to the heat. I think he may be damaged over time for praising Greenspan as the best Fed head in the past 40 years, and the fact that one of the 9's in his 9-9-9 is a national sales tax.
1. MITT ROMNEY - Again, no one touched him, though Huntsman seemed to be the only one willing to try. The closest anyone came was when one of the questioners tried to pinpoint Romney on Europe's economy possibly collapsing, and he didn't want to answer a "hypothetical." I would say he has New Hampshite sewn up.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Google "Going to Hell" experiment
So I went to Google to see how many hits I would get on this phrase
All _________ are going to hell.
Here were the amount of results each gave me, ranked in order of hit total (in millions):
Racists - 30.4
Homosexuals - 23.1
Republicans - 22.9
Jews - 22
Democrats - 21.2
Murderers - 18.3
Millionaires - 16
Communists - 15.7
Atheists - 13.9
Buddhists - 12.1
Catholics - 6.57
Rapists - 5.77
Agnostics - 4.59
Christians - 3.9
Muslims - 3.48
Mormons - 3
Child Molesters - 1.97
Hindus - 1.85
Environmentals - 1.25
Scientologists - .711
Jehovah's Witnesses - .281
Then I changed to
"___________ is going to hell"
and put in some names.
(The quotations are important. I got 9 million hits on John English is going to hell but zero hits on "John English is going to hell"). Though by doing this, there's now going to be at least one result. Oh well.
George W. Bush - 8230
Sarah Palin - 7830
Glenn Beck - 2740
Casey Anthony - 1870
Dick Cheney - 1430
Osama bin Laden - 760
Bill Maher - 265
Mitt Romney - 10
Barack Obama - 7
Rick Perry - 7
Adolf Hitler - 4
All _________ are going to hell.
Here were the amount of results each gave me, ranked in order of hit total (in millions):
Racists - 30.4
Homosexuals - 23.1
Republicans - 22.9
Jews - 22
Democrats - 21.2
Murderers - 18.3
Millionaires - 16
Communists - 15.7
Atheists - 13.9
Buddhists - 12.1
Catholics - 6.57
Rapists - 5.77
Agnostics - 4.59
Christians - 3.9
Muslims - 3.48
Mormons - 3
Child Molesters - 1.97
Hindus - 1.85
Environmentals - 1.25
Scientologists - .711
Jehovah's Witnesses - .281
Then I changed to
"___________ is going to hell"
and put in some names.
(The quotations are important. I got 9 million hits on John English is going to hell but zero hits on "John English is going to hell"). Though by doing this, there's now going to be at least one result. Oh well.
George W. Bush - 8230
Sarah Palin - 7830
Glenn Beck - 2740
Casey Anthony - 1870
Dick Cheney - 1430
Osama bin Laden - 760
Bill Maher - 265
Mitt Romney - 10
Barack Obama - 7
Rick Perry - 7
Adolf Hitler - 4
Perry surrogate revives sectarianism
Well, you knew it was going to come. Huckabee started the whisper campaign in 2007, and it worked. Now that Perry's slipping, and Herman Cain is rising as the top non-Romney candidate, Perry had to do something. He didn't smash the place up. He just hung the red flag in the china shop, left the front door open, then untied the bull. Plausible deniability.
Some quotes I found on it:
Andrew Sullivan: "If you wonder why Romney cannot quite seal the deal, Pastor Jeffress has part of the answer. If you turn a political party into a church, as the GOP essentially now is, sectarianism will eventually emerge. In all its ugly, bigoted, negative manifestations. Perry is showing he can play a card from the bottom of the deck when he's up against it. Which is not a good sign for next year."
And hey, Mitt Romney: "Our values ennoble the citizen, and strengthen the nation. We should remember that decency and civility are values too. One of the speakers who will follow me today, has crossed that line. Poisonous language does not advance our cause. It has never softened a single heart nor changed a single mind. The blessings of faith carry the responsibility of civil and respectful debate. The task before us is to focus on the conservative beliefs and the values that unite us – let no agenda, narrow our vision or drive us apart."
Some quotes I found on it:
Andrew Sullivan: "If you wonder why Romney cannot quite seal the deal, Pastor Jeffress has part of the answer. If you turn a political party into a church, as the GOP essentially now is, sectarianism will eventually emerge. In all its ugly, bigoted, negative manifestations. Perry is showing he can play a card from the bottom of the deck when he's up against it. Which is not a good sign for next year."
And hey, Mitt Romney: "Our values ennoble the citizen, and strengthen the nation. We should remember that decency and civility are values too. One of the speakers who will follow me today, has crossed that line. Poisonous language does not advance our cause. It has never softened a single heart nor changed a single mind. The blessings of faith carry the responsibility of civil and respectful debate. The task before us is to focus on the conservative beliefs and the values that unite us – let no agenda, narrow our vision or drive us apart."
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Sarah Palin Not Running
After months and months of teasing, Sarah Palin decided to not run for president and stay at her $1 million analyst job at Fox News Channel.
I can't help but wonder whom this will affect more. Mitt Romney probably wanted her to run, someone to muddy the Not-Romney waters. Herman Cain may be the flavor of the week, but he rose so quickly to win the Florida straw poll that I can't help but wonder if he could just as quickly fade. Rick Perry's supposedly fading, but I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. All he needs is one good debate performance. Judging from past debates though, I see Cain doing better than Perry.
Romney, meanwhile, had a much easier row to hoe attacking Perry. How is supposed to handle Cain? Romney's been making a big deal about how he's not a career politician and he has private-sector experience. Cain has never held public office and has private-sector experience. Does Romney need to now emphasize his four years as the governor of Massachusetts?
I can't help but wonder whom this will affect more. Mitt Romney probably wanted her to run, someone to muddy the Not-Romney waters. Herman Cain may be the flavor of the week, but he rose so quickly to win the Florida straw poll that I can't help but wonder if he could just as quickly fade. Rick Perry's supposedly fading, but I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. All he needs is one good debate performance. Judging from past debates though, I see Cain doing better than Perry.
Romney, meanwhile, had a much easier row to hoe attacking Perry. How is supposed to handle Cain? Romney's been making a big deal about how he's not a career politician and he has private-sector experience. Cain has never held public office and has private-sector experience. Does Romney need to now emphasize his four years as the governor of Massachusetts?
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