Ron Paul should win Iowa

Call me crazy, but Iowa is Ron Paul's to lose.
The vote is still five weeks away. That's plenty of time for operatives from rival campaigns to remind people just how much baggage Newt Gingrich carries. Sure, Newt was the first to get out a butt-kissing tweet on Herman Cain's decision to "suspend" his campaign and launch a website. Most talking-heads on cable are saying that Newt will benefit most from Cain leaving the race, but that makes me wonder. Of the folks who had Cain as their #1, why on Earth would Newt be their #2?

Cain was an outsider. Newt's the ultimate insider. Cain's support dropped somewhat after the sexual-harrassment claims, but substantially after the adultery claims. Newt's cheated on two wives. Cain made his money in corporate America. Newt made his money through cronyism. What else do you call Freddie Mac paying him $1.6 million? Cain had humble beginnings. The word "humble" has never come within ten miles of Newt Gingrich. I couldn't be less surprised that Newt was the first (and so far only) candidate to accept a debate with Donald Trump as moderator.

Now Newt likes big ideas and big adverbs. He more than any other candidate is very talented at making it sound like he's answering the question. When he was at the bottom of the polls, he was all smiles and magnaminity. His already giant head will swell with every poll point he gains. He is his own worst enemy.

So how does Iowa feel about that devastating ad Ron Paul put out illustrating Newt's flip-flops? How does Iowa feel about his co-starring with Nancy Pelosi in a climate-change ad? How do they feel about his support of TARP?

This is why I see Ron Paul as the next NotRomney. (Paul's polling second in Iowa right now.) I still see Romney as having a decent shot at Iowa. It seems like it always boils down to debate performances. But there needs to be a NotRomney, and I can see some people revisiting Bachmann, and the vote being close, and Ron Paul emerging victorious, with 30% of the vote. (Mitt 28%, Newt 22%, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, Huntsman getting the 20% leftovers.)

Now Ron Paul fans are passionate and can be, oh what's the word.... melodramatic? Don't get me wrong, I voted for Paul in 2008, but here's just some Facebook comments from Paul supporters in my groups, all left within the past few days:

"Don't rule Ron Paul out because he realizes the state is willing to do almost anything for self-preservation. That includes being part of 9/11."

"No one provides the kind of drastic, quick changes that this country needs besides Ron Paul. At this point I don't think it matters if we elect Obama again, or someone like Romney. They will both lead the country to complete collapse. Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who has a plan bold enough to cut enough of the fat from the government to actually save this republic."

"Ronald Reagan couldn't shine Ron Paul's shoes!!"

If their Iowan counterparts can work on persuasion, Paul really should be able to pull this off.