Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Utah GOP Primary: What We Learned Last Night
1. Money talks. All the state and federal offices went to the guy with the most money, and it played out that way in most of the state Senate/House races too.
2. Negative advertising works. Jason Powers may not have had a clean sweep, but three of his four victims fell in their races. Now he can fly back to Bald Mountain and plot how he can destroy Mike Kennedy two years from now. John Swallow and his PACs hit Sean Reyes early, and after that, the reaction was "Oh, they're both dirty." Brad Daw had several attacks ads against him before anyone else had decided to run against him. (Not to take anything away from Dana Layton; she ran a good campaign by herself.)
3. Name recognition is big. Most Utahns still have no idea who Dan Liljenquist or Sean Reyes is. It's just one reason why Hatch refused to debate Dan on TV.
4. Every election is different. If 2010 was the year of the Tea Party, 2012 was the year of the Status Quo. He may be a rock star at conventions, but there are plenty of Republicans who don't like or trust Mike Lee. The Establishment was not about to let their other senior Senator leave before he wanted to leave. And Mark Shurtleff, who all but hand-picked Lee to run in 2010 when his own health prevented him from doing so, was able to get his annointed successor the GOP nomination with ease.
5. The Ron Paul Revolution lives! In 2008, he got 3% of the vote. This time, he got 4%!
6. Some endorsements are more important than others. Mitt Romney endorsed his friend Orrin Hatch a long time ago. Hatch used that at every opportunity. Dan Liljenquist was endorsed by Rick Santorum. Yeah, that's not going to get you any more votes in Utah.
7. No matter what office you're running for, run like you're running for Congress. I give you John Swallow (whom I did not vote for) and John Dougall (whom I did). Both went with this approach and both won.
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