Saturday, November 26, 2011

GOP InTrade Watch 11/26/11

From November 26.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 62.9%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 15.8%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 8%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 6%
5. (5) - Herman Cain - 2.7%
6. (6) - Rick Perry - 2%
7. (7) - Michl Bachmann - 1.4%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .7%

No one else is above .1%.

The Wednesday debate helped who it should have. Romney dipped but is still clearly ahead the field, while Gingrich, Huntsman and Paul all saw slight improvement. Herman Cain and Rick Perry fell further, and I would say it's time for those bottom four to bow out. And yet, Tim Pawlenty obviously bowed out too early, so who knows.

Meanwhile Romney's decided he's going to compete in Iowa after all, which 538's Nate Silver agrees is a good idea.  I think Romney was fine to cede Iowa when Perry or Cain was the front-runner, but with Gingrich and Paul doing well, either of them could ride the Iowa surge into New Hampshire and be credible competition.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

CNN GOP Debate

Most haunted-house movies are about ghosts who either don't realize they're dead, or they can't quite let go. They cling to what was. Maybe they want revenge, information, closure, but eventually someone from the living comes along to serve as catalyst.

That's what watching the GOP debates feels like sometimes. I see Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the house, and there's Jon Huntsman on the end, like the nosy neighbor who's going to walk in at precisely the wrong moment. There's Rick Santorum on the other end, as the guy who gets killed in the prologue. Meanwhile the spectres of campaigns past haunt the stage. Perry rattles his chains, Cain whispers "The house is ours" and Bachmann crawls through the TV to settle a grudge. Someone needs to exorcise those three so they can go to their final resting place, with Santorum right behind them. Huntsman, I imagine, is waiting for the Iowa fallout to see if it bumps him in New Hampshire. I understand his strategy. The other four, though... It's sad.

But onward we must proceed, with still eight total talking heads on the stage. Here are your contestants:

MITT ROMNEY - "The Establishment Front-Runner". Hey, he doesn't change his positions as often as the GOP changes their front-runner.

NEWT GINGRICH - "The Flavor of the Week". I hereby pledge to advise all of Gingrich's companies for half of what he charged. (You're getting a sweet deal here.)

RON PAUL - "The Libertublican". I don't know if he really wants to be President; he just wants to make sure whoever is audits the Fed.

JON HUNTSMAN - "New Hampshire's Maitre'D" - If I mention I have a relative at Dartmouth, can I get a free backrub?

HERMAN CAIN - "9-9-9". The answer to the Jeopardy question "How many sexual harrassments lawsuits have been filed against him, against him, against him?"

RICK PERRY - "The Texas Christian" - I am not drunk.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - "The One Woman" - We'll always have Ames.

RICK SANTORUM - "The Social Conservative" - Put the gay toothpaste back in the Muslim tube!

6:02 - After an opening sequence that makes it look like we've assembled eight cyborgs to lead our country, Wolf Blitzer ("yes, that's my real name") gets to it with his own intros. Once again, I wish Vince McMahon were in charge of the intros. We need theme music and pyrotechnics. It would be no sillier than the opening sequences these cable producers package.

6:05 - No, wait. A guy from The Jersey Boys sings our national anthem. NOW we can begin.

6:07 - Oh wait. Wolf has to explain the debate rules. Speed it up, Wolf; we've got eight people up there.

6:09 - Holy crap, now the candidates are going to introduce themselves. Santorum dings Obama, Paul dings "unnecessary wars," Perry points out he's in a happy marriage, Romney starts off by joking that Mitt is his first name (*crickets*), Cain says Obama's "downgraded" our natl security, Gingrich plugs his work with Heritage, Bachmann says she wants to get troops home as soon as we can, and Huntsman does indeed mention New Hampshire.

6:13 - Wolf: "Let's get right to the questions!" Are you freakin' kidding me?



6:14 - First question is about keeping the Patriot Act. Newt wants to keep it, as we'll all be in the danger "for the rest of our lives." Paul disagrees, correctly, and gives a great plea against turning the US into a police state.

6:17 - Bachmann says we've handed over interrogation to the ACLU, says it was a bad thing we gave Miranda rights to the underwear bomber. Huntsman points out the brand of the United States means something overseas, wants to find the balancing act between liberty and security.

6:20 - Romney gets a TSA question but glosses over it so he can get into the war vs. crime debate.

6:21 - Perry wants to privatize the TSA and keep the Patriot Act. Most of them are competing to see who can make sure our future is Minority Report.

6:23 - Santorum has two modes: complaining he doesn't get enough questions, and whatever is suggested, he claims he voted for it first. He's pro-profiling, especially Muslims. Paul shakes his head, says we're not "at war." There's a war on terrorism but not against a people and stresses individual rights again.

6:25 - Cain seems to be cool with Santorum's approach to profiling. Cain wants to "refine" the Patriot Act but not throw it out because the terrorists still want to kill us. Paul can't believe some of these people are allowed on stage.

6:27 - Huntsman gets the Pakistan question. He plugs Congressional term limits slyly then says Pakistan should keep us up at night. "It's a haven for bad behavior." Bachmann calls Pakistan the "epicenter" of terrorist training, and I am reminded once again that she's on the Intelligence committee and will sound smart on foreign matters. She probably regrets the earlier debates weren't more focussed on foreign policy. And she coins the phrase: "Too nuclear to fail."

6:31 - Perry disgrees with Bachmann, and a couple seals in the back clap. Bachmann comes back "with all due respect" that's "highly naive." Oh snap! I've never liked her more.

6:33 - Perry tries to fall back on his briefings about Afghanistan and India, but Bachmann won't let him off the hook with his "blank check" remark.

6:35 - Romney called Pakistan the sixth largest country in the world. Factcheck! *clap-clap!* That's a True. Wow, had no idea.

6:36 - Romney wants to bring modernity to Pakistan but wants to be careful about withdrawals. Huntsman completely disagrees and begs for an honest discussion, rattles off our successes. Romney counters by dropping "we don't want to cut and run" and wants to listen to the generals on the ground. Huntsman points out LBJ listened to the generals on the ground in 1967 too. Romney gets in a confident rebuttal.

6:40 - Newt's grouchy he hasn't had a chance to respond, but isn't really sure what we're debating. He points out how killing bin Laden brought US-Pakistan relations to a new low. "Well, they should have." (applause)

6:41 - Santorum says he agrees with Ron Paul. We are not fighting a war against terrorism, terrorism is a tactic. (Waiting for the other shoe to drop...) We are fighting a war against radical Islam. (Ah...)
Commercial!

6:47 - Awkward minute where they try to get a question from the audience. If Israel attacked Iran to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, would you help the attack or otherwise support?

6:48 - Uh, oh. Cain goes first. He would first make sure they have a plan for success. Remember it's a very mountainous region. (Oh geez...) Cain's foreign policy plan: Asking "Are you sure?" If they say yes, "Attack!"

6:49 - Paul wouldn't help but he doesn't expect it to happen, as the Mossad leader said it would be the stupidest thing in the world for them to do. But if it did happen, "why does Israel need our help?"

6:51 - Cain comes back to Afghanistan, but Wolf mercifully cuts him off for a different question.

6:52 - Perry's asked about sanctions on Iran. He wants to sanction their Central Bank and kill their economy. He wants to bring in Syria too, and uh.. "at that moment, they'll understand America is serious."

6:53 - Newt says we need a surplus of energy here. We need a strategy here and here and over there. Frankly, more strategic, less tactical. He also used about ten -ly words in his answer. Bachmann gets in a shot at Obama cancelling the keystone pipeline before going back to Iran, saying they plan to use nuclear weapons against Israel and the United States. She pretty much says if World War III happens, it's Obama's fault.

6:57 - Paul Wolfowitz asks about all the good foreign aid the US has done (Fighting AIDS and malaria in Africa, for example.) Can we still afford to do that? Santorum says he supported the bill for fighting AIDS in Africa and how it helps combat terrorism by us giving aid, taking a veiled swipe at Perry for wanting to start every country at zero.

6:58 - Cain says it depends. He wants to see the results. Paul calls the aid worthless, says we're giving money to wealthy people in poor countries. Our budget's in trouble! "The biggest threat to our national security is our financial condition." Romney rails against cutting military spending and saying we should cut ObamaCare. Paul says we're not cutting anything; it's just talk. Romney flinches, then rattles off the planned military cuts and says Obama has failed to lead with strength.

7:00 - Newt drops the Reagan name, then Apple, then gets in a "profoundly" before reminding the audience how awesome WWII was. Then gets in a Lean Six Sigma plug and says "there are lots of things we can do." I'd wager most of the people in the room thought he gave an actual answer.

7:02 - Huntsman's asked where he stands on defense cuts. Says we have a financial deficit but we also have a "trust" deficit. We can't have an intellectually honest discussion about debt and spending with sacred cows. Everything needs to be on the table, then gives specifics of his strategy.

7:08 - Perry gets a softball on the supercommittee, but still sounds like he's stalling. Pronounces it "LegislaTors." Think half a trillion is five hundred million. Calls for Panetta to resign in protest "if he is an honorable man."

7:10 - Santorum gets the question on Reagan's compromise rule (I'd rather get 80% of what I want than nothing), and Santorum says "It depends."

7:12 - Question on entitlement reform. Newt talks about his Social Security plan based on the Chilean and Galveston models, which I am pretty sure Cain was the first one to propose in a previous debate. Bachmann says it's time to draw a line in the sand when it comes to raising the debt limit, says we've gone from $8 to $15 trillion in debt in four years. Says we need to balance the budget, then chip away at the debt.

Commercials!

7:19 - We get footage of protests in Egypt.

More commercials!

7:22 - Question on the southern border. Do you consider that to be a national interest threat? Perry says we need a 21st-century Monroe Doctrine, that Hamas and Hezbollah are operating in Mexico, slams Hugo Chavez, calls border security paramount to the entire Western Hemisphere. Says we can work with Mexico to sanction their banks. (Perry's a bank-sanctioning machine!)

7:25 - Paul says we need to cancel the drug war; it's to nobody's benefit. Says we should be more concerned with the border between the US and Mexico rather than the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Says we should handle illegal drugs the same way we handle alcohol and prescription drugs.

7:26 - Cain says we know terrorists have entered this country via the Mexican border. Says let's secure the border for real. Numbers off what he'd do, a Romney tactic. Santorum praises high-skill immigration, talks about trickle-down economics. Split-screen with Perry, who looks like he wants to meet Santorum in a dark alley.

7:28 - Newt uses Einstein as an example of the importance of immigration. He uses very big words to describe a humane way of dealing with illegal immigrants. Bachmann sledgehammers him with "Amnesty!" She says Steve Jobs said he had to move 30,000 jobs to China because he couldn't find the engineers here. (Which I call bullcrap on, seems like engineers are getting laid off all the time around here; US jobs are going to China becuz it's cheaper there.) Newt counters with being humane, not breaking up families. Bachmann essentially says "Nah, round em up and ship em out."

7:33 - Romney says amnesty is a magnet but wants to make legal immigration easier. Says he'd staple a green card to any immigrant who gets a Masters degree or PhD.

7:36 - Newt doubles-down on "separating families" but is pro-deportation for those illegals who haven't been here that long. Says the party shouldn't adopt a policy that breaks up families. Perry reluctantly sides with Mitt over Newt with a "here we go again." (See what he did there?) Says we have to secure the border first "once and for all." Mitt says it's a mistake to focus a Republican debate on amnesty.

Commercials!

7:43 - Question on Syria from Dick Cheney former Chief of Staff David Addington. Wolf says Perry suggested a no-fly zone over Syria; would you support that? "No." Then he says he'd work with our allies to stop buying oil from Syria, brings it back to the economy. (Is he actually going to go through a whole debate without saying "9-9-9"?) Perry weighs in, says it'd help the military in Syria disband, likens it to Iran.

7:45 - Huntsman gets a question on Arab Spring, says we missed the "Persian Spring." Says we need to remind the world what it means to be a friend and ally to the US. Says sanctions won't work becuz the Chinese and Russians won't play ball. Gives a great answer about the region.

7:49 - Somalia question, compares it to al-Qaeda. Paul says if we want to inspire al-Qaeda, let's just meddle in the region, calls a no-fly zone over Syria an act of war. How would we feel if China put a no-fly zone over one of our territories? Why don't we mind our own business?

7:51 - Romney realizes it's late in the debate, so he goes off on Obama, rattling off several contrasts between the two, then brushes aside Perry's no-fly suggestion. Perry back-peddles, says "no-fly" is an option to leave on the table.

7:54 - Last question is a good one. What natl security threat are you worried about that no one's talking about? Santorum talks about being scared of socialists through central and south America. "We took the side of Oogo Chavez." Paul says he worries most about overreaction on our part. Perry's worried about China, they have no values, they have 35,000 abortions a day. Romney says Perry's right on China in the long run but short-run Santorum's right on South America, says to Paul we have been attacked. Cain's worried about cyberattacks. Newt is worried about a weapon of mass destruction, an electro-magnetic pulse attack, and then cyberattacks. Bachmann agrees with everyone, but says Obama is giving away the peace we won in Iraq. Huntsman says he's worried about here at home, joblessness, lack of opportunity, debt, our trust deficit.

So how's they do?

1. RON PAUL - I don't think the beltway media can ignore him anymore. Paul made a clear distinction between himself and everyone else, and he's like the guy with nothing to lose. And he's always been that way. Paul made it clear he values liberty over safety, minding our own business over intervention, legallizing drugs, and drastically cutting the federal budget. If you support that, he's your guy. If you don't, well, you know he means it. I'd wager this will him a solid third-place in the polls in the next couple days.

2. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed a strong performance and he delivered. He came across as the perfect bridge between Paul and the rest of the crew. He also landed some hits on Romney, a rare occurance. He shredded Perry's bullet-point of sanctions and was pro-America in talking about all the things we've done right. His arguments seemed the most "general election" friendly than anyone else's.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - You know, when other candidates have ascended to "presumed front-runner" status, the other candidates have attacked them. Rick Perry bore the brunt, Mitt Romney slapped them back, Herman Cain felt the stings, but Newt... no one really seemed interested in going after him except Ron Paul. Tonight was the night to yank the chair out from under Newt, and no one did it. I know a lot of Republicans who are against the Patriot Act, but Newt was virtually arguing for fascism, and half of the candidates nodded and said, "Yeah, that's great." I was paying attention to his answers more than anyone else's, and I found half of his answers were frankly profoundly fundamentally completely... woops, out of time. Then when we got to immigration, he found himself to the left of most of the candidates, arguing for humanity in how we enforce our laws.

Debates are as much about presentation as content, those YouTube clips mean more than the transcripts. And Newt "performed" very well. He did nothing to knock himself off the "front-runner" pedestal, at least not in Iowa. His "Uncle Newt" persona is working. I wonder how much longer Republicans are going to let him stay atop the polls. They sure they don't want to kick the tires on Paul or Huntsman again for their Not-Romney model?

4. MITT ROMNEY - This actually felt like a missed opportunity for him. He still debated like he owned the place, but he tried a little too hard to make Obama sound like a complete failure on foreign policy when Obama's really weakest on domestic. I thought he needed to poke the pin in the Newt balloon, but I think he was waiting for someone else to do it.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Pwned Rick Perry on the Middle East. I recall she's the one who took him down on the HPV vaccine. Says we need to balance the budget but still isn't clear on what she'd actually beyond not raise the debt ceiling and not raise taxes, and she's in the Pro-Police State camp.

6. RICK SANTORUM - Wants to profile Muslims who fly, fumbled the compromise question. Otherwise he was his usual self.

7. HERMAN CAIN - He had the same answer for every question. He would gather some experts together and then look at the information and then make a decision. Maybe fighting AIDS in Africa is a good thing, maybe it's not.

8. RICK PERRY - He was lost. Any answer he gave, someone else could counter with "Actually, that's not how it works." You could see the little wheels in his head fighting to remember the answers from his 3x5 cards. I'm amazed Texas has let him win two re-elections.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

The 7 Lowest-Paying Jobs That Require the Most Education

Beware if one of these is your chosen field:

1. Reporters/Correspondents
2. Survey Researchers
3. Medical/Clinical Lab Technicians
4. Museum Technicians/Conservators
5. Mental health/Substance Abuse Social Workers
6. Biological Technicians
7. Recreational Therapists

Thursday, November 17, 2011

GOP InTrade Watch 11/17

As of November 17
1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 70.5%
2. (4) - Newt Gingrich - 13.3%
3. (5) - Ron Paul - 4.7%
4. (5) - Jon Huntsman - 3.9%
5. (3) - Herman Cain - 3.4%
6. (2) - Rick Perry - 3%
7. (7) - Mich. Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .6%
9. (10)- Sarah Palin - .3%
10.(8) - Gary Johnson - .2%

I imagine Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels sitting at a bar somewhere, watching the NationalJournal debate on foreign policy cut off so CBS can show some reruns, then they flip the channel to one of the smaller cable-news channels where they talk about the inevitability of Mitt Romney, and how it's now Newt Gingrich's turn to surge.

Pawlenty: "Coulda been you."

Daniels: "If you hadn't dropped out after Ames, it would've been you."

(simultaneous sips from their brewskies)

Pawlenty: "One-point-six million from Freddie Mac for advice as a historian."

Daniels: "You're telling me.  Why did we become governors?"

Pawlenty: "Think Ron Paul will get a turn?"

Daniels: "Why not?  Then everyone will suddenly remember he'll be 77 years old in 2012, and they'll spin that story of some Paul blog defending a neo-Nazi, and it'll fizzle and die."

Pawlenty: "Then Huntsman?"

Daniels: "Right before Christmas.  Then down on New Years Day."

Pawlenty: "Think Santorum will get a turn?"

They look at each other, then bust up laughing. They finish their beers, pay the tab, and put the Mitt 2012 buttons back on their jackets.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

CBS National Journal Debate

Pre-Debate power rankings

Before the debate starts, this is where I'd say they are in my power rankings. Why's Huntsman as high as fifth? Because he still could become the Not-Romney if the others flounder. I think Santorum has no chance, never has, never will, and Perry and Bachmann had their days in the sun but their time has passed.

1. Mitt Romney
2. Herman Cain
3. Newt Gingrich
4. Ron Paul
5. Jon Huntsman
6. Rick Perry
7. Michelle Bachmann
8. Rick Santorum

Now I know why it's an hour. Because CBS would rather show 48 Hours Mystery than the last half hour. Really? That's sad.

6:04 - Uh, oh. Boisterous Ron Paul contigent in the house. He's the third one introduced but he's the first to get applause, and then after that, the audience feels like they have to cheer/applaud the rest of the candidate. Poor Huntsman and Bachmann went first.

6:05 - Cain says he'd assist the opposition movement in Iran. (How?) He says we need an independent energy strategy. (Entailing what?) He wants sanctions on Iran. Major Garrett then asks if he'd militarily assist the opposition in Iran and Cain says no.

6:07 - The moderator (Scott Pelley) tries to cut Romney off after 30 seconds and Romney says he gets 60. Scott says he stands corrected and the crowd cheers. Romney then finishes his answer about putting crippling sanctions on Iran and that we cannot allow them to get a nuclear weapon. Uses the term "nuclear folly" twice.

6:09 - Newt starts by saying Cain's and Romney's answers were superior to the current administration. (Applause.) (This is why Newt is pulling ahead. He spends the debates being complementary about his opponents and bashing Obama and the media.)

6:10 - Ron Paul warns that the hawkish approach to Iran is the same mistake we made with Iraq. (That one Ron Paul section gives a big cheer. I get the feeling he's going to get the same reaction from them after every answer.)

6:11 - Rick Perry wants to sanction the Iranian central bank today. Says the mission must be complete in Afghanistan. (What is the mission?) Says giving a timetable is irresponsible. When Scott asks Perry about his view of the combat situation, Perry says we're making progress there.

6:12 - Major Garrett is doing great. Respectful, specific, precise.

6:13 - Santorum cannot make it through a debate without whining about him not getting more questions. Claims he already proposed the ideas that Cain and Romney gave. He also says we need to work with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability.

6:15 - Bachmann gives a pretty decent answer on what she thinks we should have done in Afghanistan.

6:17 - Huntsman's asked how he would address the spikes in deaths in Afghanistan. he said they're driven by lack of security, but he says it's time to come home. This nation achieved its key objectives. "This nation's future is not Afghanistan."

6:19 - Romney says we need to secure the victories our soldiers won in Afghanistan. He thinks Obama's timetable is too early.

6:20 - Newt says Pakistan is a sanctuary for the Taliban, that we need a much larger strategic discussion, with Pakistan on one end and Iran on the other.

6:21 - Major: "Pakistan, friend or foe?" Cain: "We don't know."

6:22 - Perry says the foreign-aid budget for every country will be zero dollars, and then we'll have a discussion if we should send them money. (Does he count Israel as a foreign country?) Says Pakistan doesn't deserve our aid becuz they're not being honest with us, says Pakistan's really being run by the military and Secret Service and he doesn't trust them.

6:23 - Bachmann says she'd reduce foreign aid but wouldn't start at zero, not even Pakistan. We need to remember they have a nuclear weapon.

6:24 - Newt agrees with Perry to start at zero each year with foreign aid. Says he'd have Christians defended in Egypt, isn't comfortable with Arab Spring turning into Anti-Christian Spring.

6:25 - Santorum says he disagrees with most of the panel. Pakistan has a nuclear weapon; they must be our friend. Engage them as friends. (Everyone's been well-coached for this debate. All are giving intelligent-sounding answers. More substance = less fireworks.)

Commercial.

6:29 - Newt asked about Romney and he declines, sings Mitt's praises. Major tries a new tack. "How would you think outside the box with foreign affairs?" He says he'd adopt the Reagan-Thatcher strategy toward Iran and North Korea. Says he'd apply Lean Six Sigma to the Pentagon.

6:31 - Scott asks Cain how would he know when he might need to disagree with his generals, and you can tell his nervousness increases. Says he feels like he'll do a good job picking his Cabinet and military leaders.

6:35 - Santorum will make sure he hires people who share his point of view. (i.e. Yesmen?) Hopes we've been doing a lot in covert affairs to slow down Iran's progress in developing a nuclear weapon, hopes we were behind scientists dying in Russia.

6:37 - Scott: "Governor Perry, you advocate the elimination of the Department of Energy..." Perry: "Glad you remembered it." Reaction shot of Jim DeMint and Lindsay Graham laughing, sitting in the audience. Perry points out he's been "Commander in Chief" in Texas over their national guard. (I'm pretty sure Howard Dean used that argument when he ran.)

6:39 - When asked about his stance on torture, Cain says he doesn't agree with torture, period, however... (wait, let me stop right there! If you don't agree with torture, period, your next word should not be "however") Major follows up with waterboarding, and Cain calls it an enhanced interrogation technique, and he would return to that policy.

6:41 - Bachmann's pro-waterboarding, and she says Obama is letting the ACLU run the CIA.

6:42 - Major refers to his Spidey-sense in letting Ron Paul get in his two cents about waterboarding. Paul: "Torture is illegal. Waterboarding is torture." Calls it immoral, uncivilized, un-American.

6:43 - Huntsman points out he has two sons in the Navy, then says this country has values. We have a name-brand in the world. I've lived overseas four times. Our values include liberty, democracy. We diminish our standing in the world when we torture. Waterboarding is torture. A lot of people in the world still rely on us to stand up for values.

6:45 - Romney's asked if he supported the Obama administration killing U.S. citizen/suspected terrorist. "Absolutely." (boos from the Paul section) Everything I do with be toward American strength, within the law. Scott says we will not have booing.

6:47 - Newt's okay with the terror suspect being killed without a trial. Says he was an enemy combatant and had no rights to our justice system. (Applause.)

6:48 - Major to Perry: "Are we engaged in financial warfare with China?" Compares where we are to where US and Russia were in 1980's. Says China will wind up on "ashheap of history" if they don't change their virtues.

6:49 - Romney points out China wants access to our market as we want access to theirs, but they have to play by the rules. They can't steal intellectual property and hack into our systems. Says they're a currency manipulator, we need to bring them before the WTO, artificially lowering prices.

6:50 - In response to Perry & Romney on China, Huntsman says reality is a little different. Says you can't bring China before the WTO for currency manipulation. Says the key to changing China will be allying with the young people of China.

Commercial.

6:55 - Hey, there's my point! Someone from Twitter stole my point! Barbara McMahon! She asks if Perry's including Israel as a foreign country that would start at zero. To his credit, he says yes.

Scott then says most CBS stations will now drop the debate.

Mine cut to live local news where some Occupy Salt Lake protestors were being arrested.

Quick check shows Barbara's question was actually her RT-ing someone else.

CBS had a decent debate going, but the decision to cut off the last 30 minutes was ridiculous. Unacceptable.

I think overall the candidates did well. Let's look at each, in descending order on how I think they did.

8. RICK SANTORUM - He can't get it through his head that Americans don't want to vote for a whiner. Every single debate he whines about not getting enough questions. In addition to his "hoping" we're behind some recent assassinations, I'm also pretty sure he endorsed helping Israel start World War III.

7. HERMAN CAIN - It's pretty clear of the eight, he has the least amount of foreign-policy experience or knowledge. His answers were vague and unassuring. And Cain likes to make definitive statements and then say "Period" and then undermine what he just said in the very next sentence. "I am lactose intolerant, period. However, I would like extra cheese on my sandwich."

6. RICK PERRY - Had a good laugh line about the Department of Energy, but it was easy to tell when he was uncomfortable; he'd quickly shift to something else. Something tells me this "Foreign-aid budget starts at zero" idea will catch on.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She was good when addressing specific countries, but she tends to overinflate when bringing it home for Obama.

4. JON HUNTSMAN - He had an eloquent defense of what American values mean to the rest of the world. He also has more credibility when disagreeing with Romney about China.

3. RON PAUL - He only got 90 seconds in the first 60 minutes. I think the outrage over that from his supporters makes it a successful night for him.

2. MITT ROMNEY - I repeat, as the front-runner, all you have to do is not lose, and he did not lose. He seriously is like a co-host up on the stage. He also certainly seems to enjoy being flanked by Newt and Cain and having Perry further away from the middle. He knows Cain is falling. I wonder how seriously he takes the Newt surge.

1. NEWT GINGRICH - Remember when Tim Pawlenty crumbled during the debate when asked about ObamneyCare? Newt demonstrated exactly how to get out of slamming your opponent to his face on stage. You can tell he knows his surge is coming. The one thing that seemed strange was his defense of killing a U.S. citizen if they're a terror suspect. I thought we weren't supposed to trust big government...? But Mitt said he was for it, too, so...

And where would I say their power rankings are now?

1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Ron Paul
4. Herman Cain
5. Jon Huntsman
6. Rick Perry
7. Michelle Bachmann
8. Rick Santorum

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

CNBC Debate

CNBC Debate

What will you do to make sure Italy's financial problems don't drag down the U.S.?

CAIN - 1. Grow the economy. 2. Assure our currency is sound. Grow the economy, cut spending.

ROMNEY - Europe can take of their own problems. They can bail out their own banks. We don't need to bail out banks in Italy or banks in the U.S. with Italian debt. Europe can help Europe.

Cramer is beside himself we'd actually let Italy fail.

PAUL - No, let it fail. Liquidate the debt. Debt, debt, debt, debt. Let thema ll fail, let all the mortgages go under.

HUNTSMAN - "Too big to fail." We need properly sized banks and institutions. (Which would mean more government intervention, right?)

Romney confronted about his being against the auto-bailout.

ROMNEY - Speaks about his attachments to Detroit. Said whether by Bush or Obama, they should have gone through private bankruptcy and restructuring process. John Harwood then asks Romney again about his flip-flop image. Calls himself a man of steadiness and constantcy, uses his marriage, church, and company as examples of being steady. Pledges to be true to his country and he will never apologize for America.

Harwood gives examples of Reagan (raising taxes) and Bush (bailouts) using flexibility and asks Perry about it.

PERRY - "America is going to be America again." "If you are too big to fail, you are too big."

GINGRICH - Fire Ben Bernanke. (applause) Audit the Fed. (applause) Operation Desert Storm. (just kidding) Slams Saul Alinksy radicalism, class warfare... lots of buzzwords, but not a real answer.

BACHMANN - Taxes lead to jobs leaving the country. Our biggest burden is regulation, our biggest regulation problem is ObamaCare. Repeal Dodd/Frank, build a fence to deal with immigration.

Harwood asks Santorum about 0% manufacturing jobs. Isn't that picking winners and losers?

SANTORUM - It's not picking winners and losers, it's a section of our economy. Some have suggested we need tariffs. That just taxes you. I don't want to tax you. I'll get rid of subsidies.

Maria asks Cain about his four accusers, gets booed.

CAIN - The American people deserve better than someone being tried in the court of public opinion based on unfounded accusations. (rousing applause) This country's looking for leadership. This is why people are still enthusiastic about my campaign.

ROMNEY - When asked, he said Herman Cain can answer these questions, and he just did.

Harwood, "Let's go back to the economy..." (sarcastic applause)

HUNTSMAN - I want to be the president of the 99%, and the 1%. I agree with the Occupy crowd in that this country will never again bail out a corporation. (tiny applause) We have banks that are too big to fail, and as long it remains that way, we're setting ourselves up for long-term disaster.

Cramer's on one.

ROMNEY - Our Democratic friends don't like profitable companies. I want to make American businesses successful. Obama doesn't like successful businesses. (loud applause)

PERRY - My 20% flat-tax plan will get this economy going. We need to plant a flag in the middle of America that says "Open for business again."

GINGRICH - The Occupy Wall Street crowd need a clue about history. Cites Henry Ford and Bill Gates' humble beginnings, are they the 99% or the 1%. Media is inaccurate about reporting on the economy. Maria stops him. "What is the media reporting inaccurately on the economy?" What? She asks again. He says he has yet to see a reporter ask a OWS person about who pays for their park they're occupying.

Man, Cramer's an annoying questioner. The other two are good. He asks about oil in Alaska.

SANTORUM - Quick answer, then goes to manufactuers. His grandpa was a coal miner.

Maria asks Cain about tax fairness.

CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan is the only one that solves the problem of the messy tax code. The complexity costs us $460 billion a year. Brings out Webster definition of fair. Maria asks how he can guarantee 9-9-9 doesn't turn into 19-19-19. "Tax codes don't raise taxes; people do." Says voters won't let politicians raise taxes above those rates.

ROMNEY - Would like to see flatter, simpler tax. Take our tax dollars and focus on those who are hurt the most - the middle class. Median incomes have dropped 10% the past few years. I focus a tax break for middle America. Right now let's do the job that needs to be done now, help the middle class.

BACHMANN - Obama's plan for job creation has nothing to do with job creators.

PAUL - The tax code is the consequence. Spending is the cause. You have to address spending. Cut $1 trillion in first year from five departments. Get rid of price fixing, raise interest rates.

Commercial break.

GINGRICH - If we repealed Dodd/Frank, we'd see the housing market improve overnight.

Maria Bartiromo asks why Romney's 59-point jobs plan doesn't address housing.

ROMNEY - Because it's a jobs plan, not a housing plan. (applause) We know how to improve the economy. Do the exact opposite of what Obama has done. The reason we are where we are is because the fed govt interfered with housing market.

PERRY - It's the regulatory world that is killing America. Doesn't matter if it's Dodd/Frank or the EPA, or whatever, audit every regulation since 2008 and ask "is it creating jobs or killing jobs?" If it's killing jobs, get rid of the regulation.

BACHMANN - Fannie and Freddie give bonuses to their executives?!

GINGRICH - I got $300,000 from Fannie/Freddie for giving advice of what they didn't do. It was my advice as a historian. (Something tells me there's more to what Newt did for Fannie/Freddie that offer advice as a historian for $300k.)

CAIN - When asked about Fannie/Freddie, he says you don't start there, you start with fixing the economy, 9-9-9. "Get the regulators off the backs of the banks." Then I'd unwind Fannie/Freddie so they'd be private.

HUNTSMAN - It's not right to have too big to fail. Let's right-size them. Goldman-Sachs has grown huge; is that right? Charge a fee to these institutions to protect taxpayers.

How to repeal ObamaCare?

HUNTSMAN - I'd meet with the 50 governors and address cost-containment. How do you empower patients? Harmonize medical records. Close the gap on the uninsured. Let the free market work to get truly affordable insurance.

PAUL - Get govt out of health care, we need medical savings accounts. It's a bipartisan problem.

PERRY - Send Medicaid back to the states; they know how to work it.

CAIN - The legislation has already been written, but "Princess Nancy" sent it to committee but it never came out.

ROMNEY - Health-care in 30 seconds is tought but let me try. Send Medicaid back to states, let individuals get their own insurance and don't discriminate against them. Do what Ron Paul said, get insurance to work like the market. Finally, get rid of our malpractice system.

GINGRICH - It's an absurd question. 30 seconds isn't enough time. I'd challenge the president to seven 3-hour Lincoln-Douglas style debates. Maria keeps trying to get Newt to answer the question about health care, then he rattles some stuff off, mostly covered by others but he goes into brain science for a bit.

BACHMANN - The main problem with health-care is cost. It's too expensive. First, let Americans buy insurance across state lines. Make all medical expenses tax-free.

SANTORUM - This is the difference between me and the other candidates. I led the discussion on medical savings accounts. I was always for private-sector health-care. I was one of the ones warning about the bubble before it burst.

ROMNEY - Govt is playing too heavy a role in health-care. Consumers need to be more involved, informed of what's happening. 18% of our GDP spent on health-care, more than anyone else in the world.

PAUL - My plan of cutting $1 trillion preserves Medicaid, but we deal with the bailouts, the banks; we'll probably wind up bailing out Europe, which would be a tragedy.

Commerical break. Rick Santelli joins the panel and gets a pop from the crowd.

SANTORUM (who has one uncomfortably toothy smile) - We need to look at plans that bring people together, that's why I'm focussing on manufacturing. (gets it oh-so-subtle digs to Huntsman and Cain).

ROMNEY - I had to find Democrats in Mass. who cared more about their state than their next election to get things done. We're headed toward Italy and Greece. We need a leader who can bring Reps and Dems together who care more about their country than their next election.

PERRY - Americans are looking for a regulatory climate that doesn't strangle the life out of their businesses. Yeah, we can all work with Reps and Dems, but you need a plan that'll fix the economy, and my flat-tax plan. I'll cut three govt departments: Commerce, Education, and uh, what's the third one.... and uh...

ROMNEY - EPA?

PERRY - Yeah, no! EPA needs to be rebuilt. The third one... uh... oops.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a campaign dies.

CAIN - My 9-9-9 plan makes every sector grow, not just one sector. It's bold. Yes, it's BOLD! I provide a compelling solution.

GINGRICH - I'm not going to raise taxes on middle Americans in an economy this bad. I'll take Soc-Sec out of the general budget; deal with it as a stand-alone issue. Give young people option of pursuing Galveston or Chilean model.

ROMNEY - This issue of the deficit is a moral issue. We can't pass all this debts to future generations. We need to cut spending. 1. Cut programs, like ObamaCare. 2. Move some programs back to states. 3. Finally bring some productivity to federal workers, cut fed jobs by 10%.

BACHMANN - I'm opposed to the payroll tax cuts becuz it blows hole in Soc-Sec trust fund. We sent $2.2 trillion in tax money to DC but they spent $3.7 trillion last year.

HUNTSMAN - The Fed has purchased trillion in securities. I'd clean up the balance sheet. We have a trust crisis in this country. Congress, the executive branch, Wall Street. There's no trust in our institutions of power. I'm the only one here who's done a flat tax. The WSJ called my tax plan the best. Phase out corporate welfare.

PAUL - Gets student-loan debt question. The policy of student loans is a total failure. Fed govt shouldn't deal with education. Inflation is the problem.

GINGRICH - Pres. LBJ started student-loan program. It made students take longer to graduate.

PERRY - Department of Energy! That was the third program. People on Soc-Sec need to understand it'll be there for them. The young people out there, who's going to stand up for them. I will do that.

Commercial break.

CAIN - It's wrong that Cali hired Chinese company to help rebuild San Fran bridge. That's why we need 9-9-9.

ROMNEY - China is cheating. It is good for US to have free trade, but they're playing by different rules, stealing copyrighted materials, hacking into our systems, they're stealing our jobs. 1. I'd label China a currency manipulator. 2. I'd make charge to WTO. 3. I'd apply tariffs if necessary.

GINGRICH - I'd be curious to hear what Huntsman has to say, but we need to dramatically increase competition.

HUNTSMAN - 30 seconds to respond?! Bottom line is tariffs start a trade war. Mitt's pandering.

ROMNEY - I've seen predatory pricing where they try to drive others out of business by keeping prices low, then raise them when their competitors go out of business.

BACHMANN - Chinese are bad actors. Chinese are housing nuclear weapons in new tunnels. We're in hoc to them for $1 trillion.

CAIN - Volatility is caused by uncertainty. To restore trust, we need to grow the economy.

Cramer: "People were getting ripped off when the economy was going great!"

CAIN - Repeal Dodd/Frank!

PERRY - Too cozy a relationship between govt and stock market. When there are individuals breaking the laws, prosecute them for criminality.

PAUL - Punish crony capitalism.

----

I'm tired, so I need to think about this one. My impressions right now are Romney won, Cain did fine even if he doesn't have anything beyond 9-9-9, Gingrich's answers were a house of cards, Ron Paul was his usual Libertaraian self, Huntsman was helped by being a little more memorable than Santorum or Bachmann, and Perry's "Oops" was the equivalent of the Howard Dean "HYAAA!"