GOP InTrade Watch - 12/5/11

As of December 5.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 47%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 30.2%
3. (3) - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
4. (4) - Ron Paul - 7%
5. (6) - Rick Perry - 2.8%
6. (7) - Michele Bachmann - 2.5%
7. (8) - Rick Santorum - 1.4%
8. (5) - Herman Cain - .2%

The moneychangers still like Romney but not as much as they used to.

The field's changed since Cain dropped out. Romney has been severely damaged by Gingrich's ascent. Romney's at his lowest since October 1. Gingrich was actually up to 37% a few days ago, but his enemies are starting to get louder (George Will disembowelled him on ABC's This Week). Huntsman and Paul are hovering. Paul's waiting for an Iowa boost, and Huntsman for a New Hampshire boost if Newt would just hurry up and implode already.

In watching bits and pieces of Fox News the past week or so, and hearing parts of Rush driving to and from work, it seems they really don't want Romney, but they're not thrilled about Gingrich either. I think Rush wants Perry or Bachmann or Santorum to get the nomination, but Gingrich would be his fourth choice. And Fox News is about the same.

Heck, the other day Glenn Beck said if one of these candidates could turn out to be the next George Washington, it'd be Rick Santorum. #facepalm

One Sunday talking-head (can't remember who at this moment) said, in defending Perry, that we put too much emphasis on the debates.  I don't think so.  Voters are very cognizant of the importance of debates.  It can underline strengths and expose weaknesses.  (Look at how poorly Perry and Cain have done at foreign policy questions.)  They remember the Barack Obama / John McCain debates of 2008. Obama was fresh, new and energized; McCain was the old grump who wouldn't even look at "that one."  They remember the George W. Bush / Al Gore debates of 2000, too.  Bush was the guy who could relate to folks; Gore was the robot who couldn't stop sighing into the microphone.

So glad we're finally down to seven candidates.  Bring on the next debate!

Huckabee Debate Forum

HUCKABEE

Wow, looks like Huck's put back on all the weight he lost when running for president in 2008. Huck will be the moderator, and aiding in the questions will be three ravenously ambitious state attorneys general.

I honestly love the explanation and the set-up of this format. Looking forward to how it will go, all snarking aside. Also believe it was a mistake for Jon Huntsman to skip this. First each questioner gets a chance to crow.

Scott Pruitt - OK - Lets us know he doesn't believe Obama respects the principles of the Constitution.

Pam Bondi - FL - Obama's trying to undermine our Constitution. What will fix our problems is a conservative Republican who shares our values.

Ken Cuccinelli - VA - Also suing the fed govt "to protect our Constitution" aka ObamaCare.

NEWT GINGRICH

7:05 - Pam starts, big grin, says his "stand on immigration could lead to more illegal immigration." Advocates jury of peers on illegal immigrants (?), wants to implement secure borders and guest-worker program. Pam: "MY concern is putting friends and neighbors in charge of judging." (Man, are they going to insert themselves into the conversation like this all night?) Newt points out the founders supported juries over judges because they didn't always trust judges.

7:08 - Ken: "Why should Constitutional conservatives LIKE ME trust you... individual mandate, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae." Newt says Heritage came up with individual mandate as a way of blocking HillaryCare, but then he speeds to say "sitting on a couch with Nancy Pelosi is the dumbest thing I've done in years." I testified against Al Gore on climate change. As Speaker we balanced the budget, did welfare reform, "vigorous" tenth Amendment defender.

7:10 - Okay, Ken refers to himself again in the follow-up question. I was worried a Donald Trump debate might be self-aggrandizing but I'm already fed up with these attorneys and one of them hasn't even had his turn. Ken, Pam, this is not about you. "How will you stick to shrinking the fed govt?" I've done it in Reagan's Congress and as Speaker... 'But how will you as President?" I'm giving you my experience to show I can be trusted. The Tea Party needs to understand you can't get everything you want by just appointing good people, it takes a lot of work.

Commercials! For Dragon Tattoo movie, Verizon, Geico, Advil, Sam Adams beer, Salvation Army.

7:14 - Scott: "Obama seems to think DC has all the answers to our natl problems. Can you name some natl problems that neither the president nor Congress should solve?" Education, most of DC bureaucracy should be dismantled, Medicaid should go back to the states, replace the EPA with something that has "economic rationality." Tenth Amendment talks about the states and the citizens. Shrinking DC depts requires growing local citizenship. (Scott didn't refer to himself once. Nice.)

7:16 - Newt slams a judge in San Antonio who bans the use of the words "God, invocation, benediction" at a graduation ceremony and said if his order was violated, the superintendent would be thrown in jail.

7:17 - Pam: "Is it wrong for the feds to intrude on states' authority?" (Softball alert!) Nothing wrong with a prez advocating change, but he can't then say the fed govt will be in charge of it. Then defends sitting with Nancy, saying he wants conservative environmentalism.

7:19 - Ken: "favorite founding father?" George Washington, then rattles off a bunch of reasons why.

Commercials! Infiniti, GE, Tempurpedic beds.

RICK SANTORUM

7:22 - Pam: "You said Abe Lincoln ran over our civil rights during the Civil War. Are there any elements of the Patriot Act that run over our civil rights?" (Great question, Pam. You're forgiven.) No! "Why?" I voted for the Patriot Act, most of the changes were consistent with how we deal with drug kingpins and gangsters. "How did Abe run over our civil rights?" Suspended habeus corpus, but he did what he had to do.

7:24 - Scott: "Strengthening the family is important to you and it's important TO US. is that a proper function with respect to fed govt?" I'm father of seven, family's important to me and America. Fed govt undermines family, look at our welfare programs. We do things to break families apart. We had the marriage tax penalty. There are things Prez can do beyond laws. "Where do the states fit?" Well, I was the author of the Fed Welfare Reform bill, only time we've taken fed program and sent it back to states. We should cut, cap, freeze welfare, send it back to states.

7:27 - Ken: "Since Constitution doesn't have authority to ban abortions..." I support Constitutional amendment to ban abortion, if you will. We need uniform law on values that undergird our country. I fought for marriage amendment; we can't have 50 definitions of marriage in this country.

7:29 - Pam: "In FL, I'VE had to sue the EPA for devastating water standards. What principles would you follow in instituting "any" environmental regulation. Endangered species act is overly broad. This is what the left is best at. "What would you do?" I won't sign a straight re-authorization; I'll make Congress go back and fix the overly broad wording.

7:31 - Scott: "Why do you think the founders created separation of state and federal powers?" (Seriously?) They did it to protect the rights of the states and the citizens.

7:32 - Ken: "Constitutionally why is the president wrong to not defend the Defense of Marriage Act signed by Pres. Clinton?" I'm happy he isn't, becuz he was throwing the case. "You mean they were rolling over?" They were rolling over. (Objection! Leading the witness!)

7:34 - Pam: "Are the courts the only arbiter of the Constitution?" (Softball alert!) No.

Commercials! Wells Fargo, Lexus, Crestor, 21st Century Insurance.

RICK PERRY

7:37 - Ken: "If elected you said you'd give an executive order to invalidate ObamaCare. What is your authority to invalidate a law passed by Congress?" (Bam!) There's a lot in that bill that gives authority to the departments, so I'd make sure my Health & Human Services secretary shares my philosophy, Medicare needs to go back to the states. "It sounds like you're ready to use an executive order to invalidate the parts you don't agree with." Absolutely. "What is your authority for that?" The executive order gives you that authority. (So the President is a king, Rick?)

7:39 - Pam: "All 3 OF US here represent right-to-work states. Do u favor passing a natl right-to-work law?" The states have the right to do that. I'm a big 10th amendment supporter. States have to compete with each other. Get the fed govt making one-size-fits-all, even if it's something we like. We made Texas a very good place for businessmen & women.

7:41 - Scott: "Illegal immigration costs each state billions of dollars. Should the fed govt have to pay for that?" We send them a bill every year. The real issue is border security. I've been dealing with this for 10 years. Sheriff Joe endorsed me cuz of this. "Would u favor the states being able to sue fed govt for cost of them not enforcing, securing border?" Absolutely, but it'll become a non-issue cuz I'll secure the border.

Commercials! Sea-Bond denture gum, Aleve, Subaru, Neat scanner, Tempurpedic beds.

7:46 - Pam: "If parents and states fail education, does Fed have obligation to intervene?" No. The state legislators will do that. We'll never have that situation happen. We have Fed govt intervening too much. Education of kids is state and local issue. "Would u get rid of fed assistance for school lunch, Pell grants, GI bill?" Yes, well, maybe keep the GI bill. Fed picks winners & losers. (Huh?)

7:48 - Scott: "Which Supreme Court justices do u consider strict constructionists?" (Rick grins at the softball.) Alito and Roberts! We have four liberal legislators in robes on the Court right now. There's no accountability, but I'd like a Constitutional amendment to limit the term of a Supreme Court judge. (ooh, most of the Founders wouldn't agree with that.) "What's more preferable to you: overturn Roe v. Wade and return abortion laws to states, or passing a Human Life Amendment?" I'd do both! Until u get that Constitutional Amendment passed, the states can pass their own abortion laws.

7:50 - Ken: "Any reason labor law has to be dominated by fed govt?" Leave that to the states as well. "Would u be ready to get fed govt out of business of union elections?" Absolutely. "Favorite Founding father?" Madison. Brilliant individual.

7:51 - Huck (hey, Huck's first question!): "Explain to the layman what a strict constructionalist is." Rick then pulls his microphone trying to get his pocket Constitution out, then holds it upside down and says read this and don't try to change it. (How many Constitutional Amendments did he endorse?)

Commercials! Hugo movie, Prudential, US Postal Service, Cymbalta (which might make u suicidal and cause fatal liver problems), AT&T.

MICHELLE BACHMANN

7:56 - Scott: "U've been strong opponent of ObamaCare as WE have been. U said states cannot pass individual mandate. What's your authority for that?" It goes back to our inherant freedoms. Overriding issue is ObamaCare will change face of country forever, cost trillions of dollars, take away our liberty, collapse Medicare, tax-subsidized abortion, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria, etc. Obama ordered every health insurance company in America to cover free the morning-after pill. "WE passed stature to say no one could be forced to buy insurance. Was that unnecessary?" No, u did the right thing. But it is the law of the land right now. It will steamroll every state and make socialized medicine the law of the land.

7:58 - Pam: "U've pledged to deport all 11 million illegal immigrants. That'll cost $135 billion. How would u do it?" There's a $113 billion cost each year to let them stay. We should uphold the law. "What's your plan for executing the plan?" Enforcement by ICE agents; they're not enforcing them now. We have sanctuary cities. "MY fear is that the money will get dumped on MY state." Congress has specific ennumerated power to secure the border; it's their role. Fed govt needs to pay for deportation cost.

8:00 - Ken: "U're for tort reform. Do u support cap on damage amounts?" Yes, absolutely. "Do u support federal rules for how states handle their tort reform?" I can.

Commercials! The Debt on DVD, Geico, UPS, MassMutual, Shriners Hospitals

8:04 - Scott: "Will eliminating Dept of Education be enough to get fed govt out of education?" No, we need full-scale repeal of the burdens and mandates as well as abolish Dept of Education. We didn't have that dept. til the 1970's so we can get by w/o it. "U said you'd get rid of EPA too." We have 50 state EPA's. The fed EPA has become a govt unto themselves. "I AGREE with you, but how would you deal with inter-state environment issues?" They can be negotiated. "U can't negotiate w/o legal foundation. If they don't negotiate, then what?" Good point. But there may be a need for new legislation to deal with these issues, but look at what's happening now. Cap and tax, controlling businesses. "Hey, WE'RE all suing the EPA, so..." Thank you very much!

8:08 - Pam: "Other than Roe v. Wade, what was the worst Supreme Court decision of the last 50 years?" Well, all-time worst was Dred Scott, but int he last 50, there are so many. I'll go with Kelo decision. It was a govt entity taking private property from an individual that would benefit govt in form of revenue and give it to another. Scott: 'What would u do to protect private property?" If a case goes before the court, they need to uphold the Constitution.

8:10 - Pam: "Kelo's one of MY worst too. U support federal Human Life amendment; why not leave to states?" Inalienable rights are given to us by God, not man. Decl. of Independence said we should protect those rights; that includes rights.

Commercials! GE, Lexus (two different commercials that end with loved-one surprised other with a new car with a giant bow on top; must be cool to be rich), Nexium, Samuel Adams beer.

RON PAUL

That tie would have been right at home around Henry Gibson's neck in Nashville (1976).

8:13 - Ken: "What do u think are the 3 primary domestic responsibilities of fed govt?" Protect borders, provide sound currency, enforce Bill of Rights, like property rights, speech and so forth.

8:14 - Scott: "In 1995 WE lost 165 Oklahomans in domestic terrorist attack. Atty general uses tools of Patriot Act to combat domestic terrorism. I TOO share your concerns with privacy but what thoughtful alternative do u have to the Patriot Act?" If your goal is to prevent all crimes and all acts, u destroy all liberty by doing that. If the Patriot Act had been called The Repeal of the Fourth Amendment, it wouldn't have passed, but that's what it did. We have plenty of laws but if u try to pass laws to prevent all crimes, what r u going to do, put a camera in every home? Terrorism is a crime not a war. We use it to justify things. There's nothing in the Constitution authorizing a natl police force. We have 100,000 fed troops carrying guns.

8:18 - This Pam Bondi clearly dislikes Paul. She sneers when asking him what he calls the attack on the Twin Towers. First he calls it an act of violence, then concedes it was a terrorist attack. We need to understand the problems and not just say we need more fed policemen. This is all messed up; we've been told this is all becuz people want to come here and kill us becuz we're free. As long as we keep saying that, we're not going to be any safer.

8:19 - Pam: "Obama has had the audacity to say less regulation means dirtier air, dirtier water. Is that what less fed regulation really means?" (Aw, a nice softball for him after going mean-girl the question before.) No, that's not what it means. If u don't have regulations on the environment or banking, the free market is actually a strict regulator. Drug companies write their own regulations, banking writes their own legislation, they become lobbyists. If u have the market, u have property rights, contract rights. The market took care of Enron, they were tried for fraud and sent to prison. It's up to us to argue the case.

Commercials! Red Lobster, Sea-Bond denture bond (Fox News must think no one under age 65 is watching at this point), Aleve, DirecTV, TrueCar.com.

8:23 - Scott: "You've called Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security unconstitutional, so this must mean you plan to get rid of them." Well, not overnight. You guys slam ObamaCare for having a mandate, but there are all sorts of mandates in medicine and govt programs. We need a transitional program. There's nothing in the Constitution that says to spend one penny on education. But I would preserve some of these programs with the purpose of phasing them out. We're in trouble becuz there's no respect for Constitution. "Why would u vote for budget u consider unconstitutional?" I advocate transition programs, that makes a big difference.

8:25 - Ken: "Please put in order of importance: sovereignty of people, states, fed govt." Well, people and states, and very little for fed govt. none for international govt like UN and NATO for things we do around the world.

8:26 - Scott: "Are there any Amendments to Constitution u believe are mistakes?" What? "Mistakes." Can't quite hear. "Just pick a few." Well, the Prohibition one was terrible, it led to a decade of increased crime, but then we repealed it. The Bill of Rights are amendments and they're great. The others aren't enough for me to get riled up about.

8:27 - Pam: "If you could suggest every American read one book, what would it be?" Excluding religiously oriented? "Could be." Since we're talking about politics and the law, "The Law" by Bastiat would wake them up. It says if you can't do it, the govt can't do it. If u can't steal, u can't let a politician steal.

Commercials! AT&T, Align probiotic, Dodge Ram trucks, Pradaxa (can cause fatal bleeding).

Two different drug commercials where they fine-print the fact that taking their drug could kill you.

MITT ROMNEY

Looking unusually orange.

8:31 - Scott: "U know Oklahoma is a leader in energy; but when they say u're EPA admin won't be much different than Obama's." Well, Mike Leavitt is a friend of mine and he was Bush's EPA admin and the oil and gas people tell me it was a whole lot better under him. I see the EPA eliminating fracking and say this is just their effort to go all solar and wind and raise our costs drastically. "Would u put a stop the fed from interfering with fracking regulation?" Yes, the EPA's trying to get more power. We all like renewables, but renewables alone will not power this economy. EPA is holding down private sector.

8:34 - Ken: "Obama says his health-care was based on yours. What would u say?" I'd say thanks but why didn't u give me a call? I liked my bill overall, but what the prez has done is way beyond what we did. We were trying to take care of the 8% in Mass. uninsured. "What u did affected the entire insurance industry?" Very little for the 92%. In terms of getting down cost of health-care, that's what we should be working toward.

8:36 - Pam: "U supported No Child Left Behind in 08; what role does fed govt have in education policy?" Let me say I continue to support aspects of NCLB. Fed govt has role to stand up to fed teachers unions, prevent cyber-learning, prevent merit-pay. Bush recognized to determine which schools or teachers are fialing, we need to test. Bush stood up to those huge unions. Education should be done by state and locals. But NCLB was Bush's way of standing up to teachers union. "So would u support removing fed pay for school lunches, Pell grants, GI bill?" Some yes, some no. School lunch deals with the poor, those that deal with poor I'll look at one by one, but most I'll send to states to have them deal with it.

8:38 - Scott: "U've said u want to support strict constructionist to Supreme Court. What does that mean to u?" Supreme Court needs to protect the Constitution, not use it as springboard to insert their own ideas. Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia are strict constructionists. I want brilliant constructionists who share my values who have a good track record.

8:39 - Pam: "There are 1000s of illegal immigrants who come into MY state of Florida. Given the fed govt's complete lack of securing border, what should Florida do to protect themselves." States have right to protect their own people. I vetoed in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. I gave ICE power to deal with illegal immigration laws. Fed govt needs to step up.

8:40 - Ken: "Is there any reason labor law has to be dominated by fed govt?" First step is to revamp natl labor relations board if not eliminate all together. My own view states should put in right-to-work laws to allow people to work w/o having to join union. "Is that a maybe?" I wouldn't get rid of all fed labor laws but I would look at them and say as many as I can, turn it back to the states.

Commercials! Expedia, Verizon, Salvation Army, Biotene, UPS.

Closing arguments! One minute each.

ROMNEY - Historically this has been a merit-based society, which has made us strong. Obama wants to see an entitlement-based society, where they spread rewards around, and the most go to those who do the spreading the govt. I've worked in private sector, I know how this economy works.

PERRY - I hope everyone gives me a second look. We'll put a part-time Congress in place. Look at my plan, and give me another chance.

PAUL - We've turned the Constitution on its head, our congresses, our courts, our executive have taken too much power, and the states suffer the consequences. We've forgotten the principle of nullification. The states have to be able to nullify this! (Wow,

GINGRICH - We've seen some very intelligent people to ask some very important questions. Eight years of Obama would be a disaster with his Saul Alinksy radicalism and his efforts to fundamentally change America. This is the most important election since 1860. Together we have to stand shoulder-to-shoulder to get Congress to do the right thing.

BACHMANN - This is the most important election of our lifetime. We were promised hope and change, but this is our chance to get real hope and real change. I know how to grow the economy as a tax attorney and business owner.

SANTORUM - Thanks, Mike, you were a great warrior for faith and family in 2008. What's at the heart of this is that America is a moral enterprise and we are sick inside with 1000s of children being aborted and marriages being attacked and torn apart. I will stand and defend America.

And... scene.

Huck asks the questioners what they thought. Ken says no one bombed but some really shined. Pam says we heard more about the Constitution than all the other debates combined. Scott says we heard they will defend the rights of the states and that's exciting.

What did I think? I liked the format, I liked hearing each candidate having to explain themselves. I hated the grilling from three self-aggrandizing partisans. If it had been three journalists, this would have been much better. On second thought, Huntsman was probably right to skip this.

How'd the candidates do?

　

1. RON PAUL - He showed that he doesn't plan on overthrowing everything overnight, you have to have gradual change and transition programs. He pled for nullification to return. (I seem to recall South Carolina used nullification in 1860. How'd that turn out?) As usual, he came across as the most sincere one in the group.

2. MITT ROMNEY - Looked very orange. He had no problem going into details; I liked the energy exchange. He stood up for NCLB. Might have been easier for him to flip-flop but he didn't, even though his reasoning (Bush was standing up to the federal teachers!) was iffy.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - Danced around his ad with Nancy Pelosi, skipped over his individual mandate support, but otherwise threw out plenty of red meat for the base.

4. MICHELLE BACHMANN - I knew what she'd say on ObamaCare (it'll destroy the universe) and illegals (let's spend $135 billion to round em all up and ship em out), but when pressed on the EPA, it was clear she hadn't really though the consequences through.

5. RICK SANTORUM - Wants two new Constitutional Amendments for abortion and marriage, but thinks the Patriot Act is a-okay. Running to be Moralist-in-Chief.

6. RICK PERRY - Stumbled badly on the executive order question, seemed to save himself on the Tenth Amendment, then said he wants Constitutional amendments to give Supreme Court justices term limits and ban all abortion. When asked what a strict constructionist is, he didn't answer. He just said read the Constitution and don't try to interpret it. Like the Bible. But he wants an Amendment to give term limits to the Supreme Court... Staggering.

Ron Paul should win Iowa

Call me crazy, but Iowa is Ron Paul's to lose.
The vote is still five weeks away. That's plenty of time for operatives from rival campaigns to remind people just how much baggage Newt Gingrich carries. Sure, Newt was the first to get out a butt-kissing tweet on Herman Cain's decision to "suspend" his campaign and launch a website. Most talking-heads on cable are saying that Newt will benefit most from Cain leaving the race, but that makes me wonder. Of the folks who had Cain as their #1, why on Earth would Newt be their #2?

Cain was an outsider. Newt's the ultimate insider. Cain's support dropped somewhat after the sexual-harrassment claims, but substantially after the adultery claims. Newt's cheated on two wives. Cain made his money in corporate America. Newt made his money through cronyism. What else do you call Freddie Mac paying him $1.6 million? Cain had humble beginnings. The word "humble" has never come within ten miles of Newt Gingrich. I couldn't be less surprised that Newt was the first (and so far only) candidate to accept a debate with Donald Trump as moderator.

Now Newt likes big ideas and big adverbs. He more than any other candidate is very talented at making it sound like he's answering the question. When he was at the bottom of the polls, he was all smiles and magnaminity. His already giant head will swell with every poll point he gains. He is his own worst enemy.

So how does Iowa feel about that devastating ad Ron Paul put out illustrating Newt's flip-flops? How does Iowa feel about his co-starring with Nancy Pelosi in a climate-change ad? How do they feel about his support of TARP?

This is why I see Ron Paul as the next NotRomney. (Paul's polling second in Iowa right now.) I still see Romney as having a decent shot at Iowa. It seems like it always boils down to debate performances. But there needs to be a NotRomney, and I can see some people revisiting Bachmann, and the vote being close, and Ron Paul emerging victorious, with 30% of the vote. (Mitt 28%, Newt 22%, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, Huntsman getting the 20% leftovers.)

Now Ron Paul fans are passionate and can be, oh what's the word.... melodramatic? Don't get me wrong, I voted for Paul in 2008, but here's just some Facebook comments from Paul supporters in my groups, all left within the past few days:

"Don't rule Ron Paul out because he realizes the state is willing to do almost anything for self-preservation. That includes being part of 9/11."

"No one provides the kind of drastic, quick changes that this country needs besides Ron Paul. At this point I don't think it matters if we elect Obama again, or someone like Romney. They will both lead the country to complete collapse. Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who has a plan bold enough to cut enough of the fat from the government to actually save this republic."

"Ronald Reagan couldn't shine Ron Paul's shoes!!"

If their Iowan counterparts can work on persuasion, Paul really should be able to pull this off.

GOP InTrade Watch 11/26/11

From November 26.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 62.9%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 15.8%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 8%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 6%
5. (5) - Herman Cain - 2.7%
6. (6) - Rick Perry - 2%
7. (7) - Michl Bachmann - 1.4%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .7%

No one else is above .1%.

The Wednesday debate helped who it should have. Romney dipped but is still clearly ahead the field, while Gingrich, Huntsman and Paul all saw slight improvement. Herman Cain and Rick Perry fell further, and I would say it's time for those bottom four to bow out. And yet, Tim Pawlenty obviously bowed out too early, so who knows.

Meanwhile Romney's decided he's going to compete in Iowa after all, which 538's Nate Silver agrees is a good idea.  I think Romney was fine to cede Iowa when Perry or Cain was the front-runner, but with Gingrich and Paul doing well, either of them could ride the Iowa surge into New Hampshire and be credible competition.

CNN GOP Debate

Most haunted-house movies are about ghosts who either don't realize they're dead, or they can't quite let go. They cling to what was. Maybe they want revenge, information, closure, but eventually someone from the living comes along to serve as catalyst.

That's what watching the GOP debates feels like sometimes. I see Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the house, and there's Jon Huntsman on the end, like the nosy neighbor who's going to walk in at precisely the wrong moment. There's Rick Santorum on the other end, as the guy who gets killed in the prologue. Meanwhile the spectres of campaigns past haunt the stage. Perry rattles his chains, Cain whispers "The house is ours" and Bachmann crawls through the TV to settle a grudge. Someone needs to exorcise those three so they can go to their final resting place, with Santorum right behind them. Huntsman, I imagine, is waiting for the Iowa fallout to see if it bumps him in New Hampshire. I understand his strategy. The other four, though... It's sad.

But onward we must proceed, with still eight total talking heads on the stage. Here are your contestants:

MITT ROMNEY - "The Establishment Front-Runner". Hey, he doesn't change his positions as often as the GOP changes their front-runner.

NEWT GINGRICH - "The Flavor of the Week". I hereby pledge to advise all of Gingrich's companies for half of what he charged. (You're getting a sweet deal here.)

RON PAUL - "The Libertublican". I don't know if he really wants to be President; he just wants to make sure whoever is audits the Fed.

JON HUNTSMAN - "New Hampshire's Maitre'D" - If I mention I have a relative at Dartmouth, can I get a free backrub?

HERMAN CAIN - "9-9-9". The answer to the Jeopardy question "How many sexual harrassments lawsuits have been filed against him, against him, against him?"

RICK PERRY - "The Texas Christian" - I am not drunk.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - "The One Woman" - We'll always have Ames.

RICK SANTORUM - "The Social Conservative" - Put the gay toothpaste back in the Muslim tube!

6:02 - After an opening sequence that makes it look like we've assembled eight cyborgs to lead our country, Wolf Blitzer ("yes, that's my real name") gets to it with his own intros. Once again, I wish Vince McMahon were in charge of the intros. We need theme music and pyrotechnics. It would be no sillier than the opening sequences these cable producers package.

6:05 - No, wait. A guy from The Jersey Boys sings our national anthem. NOW we can begin.

6:07 - Oh wait. Wolf has to explain the debate rules. Speed it up, Wolf; we've got eight people up there.

6:09 - Holy crap, now the candidates are going to introduce themselves. Santorum dings Obama, Paul dings "unnecessary wars," Perry points out he's in a happy marriage, Romney starts off by joking that Mitt is his first name (*crickets*), Cain says Obama's "downgraded" our natl security, Gingrich plugs his work with Heritage, Bachmann says she wants to get troops home as soon as we can, and Huntsman does indeed mention New Hampshire.

6:13 - Wolf: "Let's get right to the questions!" Are you freakin' kidding me?

6:14 - First question is about keeping the Patriot Act. Newt wants to keep it, as we'll all be in the danger "for the rest of our lives." Paul disagrees, correctly, and gives a great plea against turning the US into a police state.

6:17 - Bachmann says we've handed over interrogation to the ACLU, says it was a bad thing we gave Miranda rights to the underwear bomber. Huntsman points out the brand of the United States means something overseas, wants to find the balancing act between liberty and security.

6:20 - Romney gets a TSA question but glosses over it so he can get into the war vs. crime debate.

6:21 - Perry wants to privatize the TSA and keep the Patriot Act. Most of them are competing to see who can make sure our future is Minority Report.

6:23 - Santorum has two modes: complaining he doesn't get enough questions, and whatever is suggested, he claims he voted for it first. He's pro-profiling, especially Muslims. Paul shakes his head, says we're not "at war." There's a war on terrorism but not against a people and stresses individual rights again.

6:25 - Cain seems to be cool with Santorum's approach to profiling. Cain wants to "refine" the Patriot Act but not throw it out because the terrorists still want to kill us. Paul can't believe some of these people are allowed on stage.

6:27 - Huntsman gets the Pakistan question. He plugs Congressional term limits slyly then says Pakistan should keep us up at night. "It's a haven for bad behavior." Bachmann calls Pakistan the "epicenter" of terrorist training, and I am reminded once again that she's on the Intelligence committee and will sound smart on foreign matters. She probably regrets the earlier debates weren't more focussed on foreign policy. And she coins the phrase: "Too nuclear to fail."

6:31 - Perry disgrees with Bachmann, and a couple seals in the back clap. Bachmann comes back "with all due respect" that's "highly naive." Oh snap! I've never liked her more.

6:33 - Perry tries to fall back on his briefings about Afghanistan and India, but Bachmann won't let him off the hook with his "blank check" remark.

6:35 - Romney called Pakistan the sixth largest country in the world. Factcheck! *clap-clap!* That's a True. Wow, had no idea.

6:36 - Romney wants to bring modernity to Pakistan but wants to be careful about withdrawals. Huntsman completely disagrees and begs for an honest discussion, rattles off our successes. Romney counters by dropping "we don't want to cut and run" and wants to listen to the generals on the ground. Huntsman points out LBJ listened to the generals on the ground in 1967 too. Romney gets in a confident rebuttal.

6:40 - Newt's grouchy he hasn't had a chance to respond, but isn't really sure what we're debating. He points out how killing bin Laden brought US-Pakistan relations to a new low. "Well, they should have." (applause)

6:41 - Santorum says he agrees with Ron Paul. We are not fighting a war against terrorism, terrorism is a tactic. (Waiting for the other shoe to drop...) We are fighting a war against radical Islam. (Ah...)
Commercial!

6:47 - Awkward minute where they try to get a question from the audience. If Israel attacked Iran to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, would you help the attack or otherwise support?

6:48 - Uh, oh. Cain goes first. He would first make sure they have a plan for success. Remember it's a very mountainous region. (Oh geez...) Cain's foreign policy plan: Asking "Are you sure?" If they say yes, "Attack!"

6:49 - Paul wouldn't help but he doesn't expect it to happen, as the Mossad leader said it would be the stupidest thing in the world for them to do. But if it did happen, "why does Israel need our help?"

6:51 - Cain comes back to Afghanistan, but Wolf mercifully cuts him off for a different question.

6:52 - Perry's asked about sanctions on Iran. He wants to sanction their Central Bank and kill their economy. He wants to bring in Syria too, and uh.. "at that moment, they'll understand America is serious."

6:53 - Newt says we need a surplus of energy here. We need a strategy here and here and over there. Frankly, more strategic, less tactical. He also used about ten -ly words in his answer. Bachmann gets in a shot at Obama cancelling the keystone pipeline before going back to Iran, saying they plan to use nuclear weapons against Israel and the United States. She pretty much says if World War III happens, it's Obama's fault.

6:57 - Paul Wolfowitz asks about all the good foreign aid the US has done (Fighting AIDS and malaria in Africa, for example.) Can we still afford to do that? Santorum says he supported the bill for fighting AIDS in Africa and how it helps combat terrorism by us giving aid, taking a veiled swipe at Perry for wanting to start every country at zero.

6:58 - Cain says it depends. He wants to see the results. Paul calls the aid worthless, says we're giving money to wealthy people in poor countries. Our budget's in trouble! "The biggest threat to our national security is our financial condition." Romney rails against cutting military spending and saying we should cut ObamaCare. Paul says we're not cutting anything; it's just talk. Romney flinches, then rattles off the planned military cuts and says Obama has failed to lead with strength.

7:00 - Newt drops the Reagan name, then Apple, then gets in a "profoundly" before reminding the audience how awesome WWII was. Then gets in a Lean Six Sigma plug and says "there are lots of things we can do." I'd wager most of the people in the room thought he gave an actual answer.

7:02 - Huntsman's asked where he stands on defense cuts. Says we have a financial deficit but we also have a "trust" deficit. We can't have an intellectually honest discussion about debt and spending with sacred cows. Everything needs to be on the table, then gives specifics of his strategy.

7:08 - Perry gets a softball on the supercommittee, but still sounds like he's stalling. Pronounces it "LegislaTors." Think half a trillion is five hundred million. Calls for Panetta to resign in protest "if he is an honorable man."

7:10 - Santorum gets the question on Reagan's compromise rule (I'd rather get 80% of what I want than nothing), and Santorum says "It depends."

7:12 - Question on entitlement reform. Newt talks about his Social Security plan based on the Chilean and Galveston models, which I am pretty sure Cain was the first one to propose in a previous debate. Bachmann says it's time to draw a line in the sand when it comes to raising the debt limit, says we've gone from $8 to $15 trillion in debt in four years. Says we need to balance the budget, then chip away at the debt.

Commercials!

7:19 - We get footage of protests in Egypt.

More commercials!

7:22 - Question on the southern border. Do you consider that to be a national interest threat? Perry says we need a 21st-century Monroe Doctrine, that Hamas and Hezbollah are operating in Mexico, slams Hugo Chavez, calls border security paramount to the entire Western Hemisphere. Says we can work with Mexico to sanction their banks. (Perry's a bank-sanctioning machine!)

7:25 - Paul says we need to cancel the drug war; it's to nobody's benefit. Says we should be more concerned with the border between the US and Mexico rather than the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Says we should handle illegal drugs the same way we handle alcohol and prescription drugs.

7:26 - Cain says we know terrorists have entered this country via the Mexican border. Says let's secure the border for real. Numbers off what he'd do, a Romney tactic. Santorum praises high-skill immigration, talks about trickle-down economics. Split-screen with Perry, who looks like he wants to meet Santorum in a dark alley.

7:28 - Newt uses Einstein as an example of the importance of immigration. He uses very big words to describe a humane way of dealing with illegal immigrants. Bachmann sledgehammers him with "Amnesty!" She says Steve Jobs said he had to move 30,000 jobs to China because he couldn't find the engineers here. (Which I call bullcrap on, seems like engineers are getting laid off all the time around here; US jobs are going to China becuz it's cheaper there.) Newt counters with being humane, not breaking up families. Bachmann essentially says "Nah, round em up and ship em out."

7:33 - Romney says amnesty is a magnet but wants to make legal immigration easier. Says he'd staple a green card to any immigrant who gets a Masters degree or PhD.

7:36 - Newt doubles-down on "separating families" but is pro-deportation for those illegals who haven't been here that long. Says the party shouldn't adopt a policy that breaks up families. Perry reluctantly sides with Mitt over Newt with a "here we go again." (See what he did there?) Says we have to secure the border first "once and for all." Mitt says it's a mistake to focus a Republican debate on amnesty.

Commercials!

7:43 - Question on Syria from Dick Cheney former Chief of Staff David Addington. Wolf says Perry suggested a no-fly zone over Syria; would you support that? "No." Then he says he'd work with our allies to stop buying oil from Syria, brings it back to the economy. (Is he actually going to go through a whole debate without saying "9-9-9"?) Perry weighs in, says it'd help the military in Syria disband, likens it to Iran.

7:45 - Huntsman gets a question on Arab Spring, says we missed the "Persian Spring." Says we need to remind the world what it means to be a friend and ally to the US. Says sanctions won't work becuz the Chinese and Russians won't play ball. Gives a great answer about the region.

7:49 - Somalia question, compares it to al-Qaeda. Paul says if we want to inspire al-Qaeda, let's just meddle in the region, calls a no-fly zone over Syria an act of war. How would we feel if China put a no-fly zone over one of our territories? Why don't we mind our own business?

7:51 - Romney realizes it's late in the debate, so he goes off on Obama, rattling off several contrasts between the two, then brushes aside Perry's no-fly suggestion. Perry back-peddles, says "no-fly" is an option to leave on the table.

7:54 - Last question is a good one. What natl security threat are you worried about that no one's talking about? Santorum talks about being scared of socialists through central and south America. "We took the side of Oogo Chavez." Paul says he worries most about overreaction on our part. Perry's worried about China, they have no values, they have 35,000 abortions a day. Romney says Perry's right on China in the long run but short-run Santorum's right on South America, says to Paul we have been attacked. Cain's worried about cyberattacks. Newt is worried about a weapon of mass destruction, an electro-magnetic pulse attack, and then cyberattacks. Bachmann agrees with everyone, but says Obama is giving away the peace we won in Iraq. Huntsman says he's worried about here at home, joblessness, lack of opportunity, debt, our trust deficit.

So how's they do?

1. RON PAUL - I don't think the beltway media can ignore him anymore. Paul made a clear distinction between himself and everyone else, and he's like the guy with nothing to lose. And he's always been that way. Paul made it clear he values liberty over safety, minding our own business over intervention, legallizing drugs, and drastically cutting the federal budget. If you support that, he's your guy. If you don't, well, you know he means it. I'd wager this will him a solid third-place in the polls in the next couple days.

2. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed a strong performance and he delivered. He came across as the perfect bridge between Paul and the rest of the crew. He also landed some hits on Romney, a rare occurance. He shredded Perry's bullet-point of sanctions and was pro-America in talking about all the things we've done right. His arguments seemed the most "general election" friendly than anyone else's.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - You know, when other candidates have ascended to "presumed front-runner" status, the other candidates have attacked them. Rick Perry bore the brunt, Mitt Romney slapped them back, Herman Cain felt the stings, but Newt... no one really seemed interested in going after him except Ron Paul. Tonight was the night to yank the chair out from under Newt, and no one did it. I know a lot of Republicans who are against the Patriot Act, but Newt was virtually arguing for fascism, and half of the candidates nodded and said, "Yeah, that's great." I was paying attention to his answers more than anyone else's, and I found half of his answers were frankly profoundly fundamentally completely... woops, out of time. Then when we got to immigration, he found himself to the left of most of the candidates, arguing for humanity in how we enforce our laws.

Debates are as much about presentation as content, those YouTube clips mean more than the transcripts. And Newt "performed" very well. He did nothing to knock himself off the "front-runner" pedestal, at least not in Iowa. His "Uncle Newt" persona is working. I wonder how much longer Republicans are going to let him stay atop the polls. They sure they don't want to kick the tires on Paul or Huntsman again for their Not-Romney model?

4. MITT ROMNEY - This actually felt like a missed opportunity for him. He still debated like he owned the place, but he tried a little too hard to make Obama sound like a complete failure on foreign policy when Obama's really weakest on domestic. I thought he needed to poke the pin in the Newt balloon, but I think he was waiting for someone else to do it.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Pwned Rick Perry on the Middle East. I recall she's the one who took him down on the HPV vaccine. Says we need to balance the budget but still isn't clear on what she'd actually beyond not raise the debt ceiling and not raise taxes, and she's in the Pro-Police State camp.

6. RICK SANTORUM - Wants to profile Muslims who fly, fumbled the compromise question. Otherwise he was his usual self.

7. HERMAN CAIN - He had the same answer for every question. He would gather some experts together and then look at the information and then make a decision. Maybe fighting AIDS in Africa is a good thing, maybe it's not.

8. RICK PERRY - He was lost. Any answer he gave, someone else could counter with "Actually, that's not how it works." You could see the little wheels in his head fighting to remember the answers from his 3x5 cards. I'm amazed Texas has let him win two re-elections.

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GOP InTrade Watch 11/17

As of November 17
1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 70.5%
2. (4) - Newt Gingrich - 13.3%
3. (5) - Ron Paul - 4.7%
4. (5) - Jon Huntsman - 3.9%
5. (3) - Herman Cain - 3.4%
6. (2) - Rick Perry - 3%
7. (7) - Mich. Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .6%
9. (10)- Sarah Palin - .3%
10.(8) - Gary Johnson - .2%

I imagine Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels sitting at a bar somewhere, watching the NationalJournal debate on foreign policy cut off so CBS can show some reruns, then they flip the channel to one of the smaller cable-news channels where they talk about the inevitability of Mitt Romney, and how it's now Newt Gingrich's turn to surge.

Pawlenty: "Coulda been you."

Daniels: "If you hadn't dropped out after Ames, it would've been you."

(simultaneous sips from their brewskies)

Pawlenty: "One-point-six million from Freddie Mac for advice as a historian."

Daniels: "You're telling me.  Why did we become governors?"

Pawlenty: "Think Ron Paul will get a turn?"

Daniels: "Why not?  Then everyone will suddenly remember he'll be 77 years old in 2012, and they'll spin that story of some Paul blog defending a neo-Nazi, and it'll fizzle and die."

Pawlenty: "Then Huntsman?"

Daniels: "Right before Christmas.  Then down on New Years Day."

Pawlenty: "Think Santorum will get a turn?"

They look at each other, then bust up laughing. They finish their beers, pay the tab, and put the Mitt 2012 buttons back on their jackets.

CBS National Journal Debate

Pre-Debate power rankings

Before the debate starts, this is where I'd say they are in my power rankings. Why's Huntsman as high as fifth? Because he still could become the Not-Romney if the others flounder. I think Santorum has no chance, never has, never will, and Perry and Bachmann had their days in the sun but their time has passed.

1. Mitt Romney
2. Herman Cain
3. Newt Gingrich
4. Ron Paul
5. Jon Huntsman
6. Rick Perry
7. Michelle Bachmann
8. Rick Santorum

Now I know why it's an hour. Because CBS would rather show 48 Hours Mystery than the last half hour. Really? That's sad.

6:04 - Uh, oh. Boisterous Ron Paul contigent in the house. He's the third one introduced but he's the first to get applause, and then after that, the audience feels like they have to cheer/applaud the rest of the candidate. Poor Huntsman and Bachmann went first.

6:05 - Cain says he'd assist the opposition movement in Iran. (How?) He says we need an independent energy strategy. (Entailing what?) He wants sanctions on Iran. Major Garrett then asks if he'd militarily assist the opposition in Iran and Cain says no.

6:07 - The moderator (Scott Pelley) tries to cut Romney off after 30 seconds and Romney says he gets 60. Scott says he stands corrected and the crowd cheers. Romney then finishes his answer about putting crippling sanctions on Iran and that we cannot allow them to get a nuclear weapon. Uses the term "nuclear folly" twice.

6:09 - Newt starts by saying Cain's and Romney's answers were superior to the current administration. (Applause.) (This is why Newt is pulling ahead. He spends the debates being complementary about his opponents and bashing Obama and the media.)

6:10 - Ron Paul warns that the hawkish approach to Iran is the same mistake we made with Iraq. (That one Ron Paul section gives a big cheer. I get the feeling he's going to get the same reaction from them after every answer.)

6:11 - Rick Perry wants to sanction the Iranian central bank today. Says the mission must be complete in Afghanistan. (What is the mission?) Says giving a timetable is irresponsible. When Scott asks Perry about his view of the combat situation, Perry says we're making progress there.

6:12 - Major Garrett is doing great. Respectful, specific, precise.

6:13 - Santorum cannot make it through a debate without whining about him not getting more questions. Claims he already proposed the ideas that Cain and Romney gave. He also says we need to work with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability.

6:15 - Bachmann gives a pretty decent answer on what she thinks we should have done in Afghanistan.

6:17 - Huntsman's asked how he would address the spikes in deaths in Afghanistan. he said they're driven by lack of security, but he says it's time to come home. This nation achieved its key objectives. "This nation's future is not Afghanistan."

6:19 - Romney says we need to secure the victories our soldiers won in Afghanistan. He thinks Obama's timetable is too early.

6:20 - Newt says Pakistan is a sanctuary for the Taliban, that we need a much larger strategic discussion, with Pakistan on one end and Iran on the other.

6:21 - Major: "Pakistan, friend or foe?" Cain: "We don't know."

6:22 - Perry says the foreign-aid budget for every country will be zero dollars, and then we'll have a discussion if we should send them money. (Does he count Israel as a foreign country?) Says Pakistan doesn't deserve our aid becuz they're not being honest with us, says Pakistan's really being run by the military and Secret Service and he doesn't trust them.

6:23 - Bachmann says she'd reduce foreign aid but wouldn't start at zero, not even Pakistan. We need to remember they have a nuclear weapon.

6:24 - Newt agrees with Perry to start at zero each year with foreign aid. Says he'd have Christians defended in Egypt, isn't comfortable with Arab Spring turning into Anti-Christian Spring.

6:25 - Santorum says he disagrees with most of the panel. Pakistan has a nuclear weapon; they must be our friend. Engage them as friends. (Everyone's been well-coached for this debate. All are giving intelligent-sounding answers. More substance = less fireworks.)

Commercial.

6:29 - Newt asked about Romney and he declines, sings Mitt's praises. Major tries a new tack. "How would you think outside the box with foreign affairs?" He says he'd adopt the Reagan-Thatcher strategy toward Iran and North Korea. Says he'd apply Lean Six Sigma to the Pentagon.

6:31 - Scott asks Cain how would he know when he might need to disagree with his generals, and you can tell his nervousness increases. Says he feels like he'll do a good job picking his Cabinet and military leaders.

6:35 - Santorum will make sure he hires people who share his point of view. (i.e. Yesmen?) Hopes we've been doing a lot in covert affairs to slow down Iran's progress in developing a nuclear weapon, hopes we were behind scientists dying in Russia.

6:37 - Scott: "Governor Perry, you advocate the elimination of the Department of Energy..." Perry: "Glad you remembered it." Reaction shot of Jim DeMint and Lindsay Graham laughing, sitting in the audience. Perry points out he's been "Commander in Chief" in Texas over their national guard. (I'm pretty sure Howard Dean used that argument when he ran.)

6:39 - When asked about his stance on torture, Cain says he doesn't agree with torture, period, however... (wait, let me stop right there! If you don't agree with torture, period, your next word should not be "however") Major follows up with waterboarding, and Cain calls it an enhanced interrogation technique, and he would return to that policy.

6:41 - Bachmann's pro-waterboarding, and she says Obama is letting the ACLU run the CIA.

6:42 - Major refers to his Spidey-sense in letting Ron Paul get in his two cents about waterboarding. Paul: "Torture is illegal. Waterboarding is torture." Calls it immoral, uncivilized, un-American.

6:43 - Huntsman points out he has two sons in the Navy, then says this country has values. We have a name-brand in the world. I've lived overseas four times. Our values include liberty, democracy. We diminish our standing in the world when we torture. Waterboarding is torture. A lot of people in the world still rely on us to stand up for values.

6:45 - Romney's asked if he supported the Obama administration killing U.S. citizen/suspected terrorist. "Absolutely." (boos from the Paul section) Everything I do with be toward American strength, within the law. Scott says we will not have booing.

6:47 - Newt's okay with the terror suspect being killed without a trial. Says he was an enemy combatant and had no rights to our justice system. (Applause.)

6:48 - Major to Perry: "Are we engaged in financial warfare with China?" Compares where we are to where US and Russia were in 1980's. Says China will wind up on "ashheap of history" if they don't change their virtues.

6:49 - Romney points out China wants access to our market as we want access to theirs, but they have to play by the rules. They can't steal intellectual property and hack into our systems. Says they're a currency manipulator, we need to bring them before the WTO, artificially lowering prices.

6:50 - In response to Perry & Romney on China, Huntsman says reality is a little different. Says you can't bring China before the WTO for currency manipulation. Says the key to changing China will be allying with the young people of China.

Commercial.

6:55 - Hey, there's my point! Someone from Twitter stole my point! Barbara McMahon! She asks if Perry's including Israel as a foreign country that would start at zero. To his credit, he says yes.

Scott then says most CBS stations will now drop the debate.

Mine cut to live local news where some Occupy Salt Lake protestors were being arrested.

Quick check shows Barbara's question was actually her RT-ing someone else.

CBS had a decent debate going, but the decision to cut off the last 30 minutes was ridiculous. Unacceptable.

I think overall the candidates did well. Let's look at each, in descending order on how I think they did.

8. RICK SANTORUM - He can't get it through his head that Americans don't want to vote for a whiner. Every single debate he whines about not getting enough questions. In addition to his "hoping" we're behind some recent assassinations, I'm also pretty sure he endorsed helping Israel start World War III.

7. HERMAN CAIN - It's pretty clear of the eight, he has the least amount of foreign-policy experience or knowledge. His answers were vague and unassuring. And Cain likes to make definitive statements and then say "Period" and then undermine what he just said in the very next sentence. "I am lactose intolerant, period. However, I would like extra cheese on my sandwich."

6. RICK PERRY - Had a good laugh line about the Department of Energy, but it was easy to tell when he was uncomfortable; he'd quickly shift to something else. Something tells me this "Foreign-aid budget starts at zero" idea will catch on.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - She was good when addressing specific countries, but she tends to overinflate when bringing it home for Obama.

4. JON HUNTSMAN - He had an eloquent defense of what American values mean to the rest of the world. He also has more credibility when disagreeing with Romney about China.

3. RON PAUL - He only got 90 seconds in the first 60 minutes. I think the outrage over that from his supporters makes it a successful night for him.

2. MITT ROMNEY - I repeat, as the front-runner, all you have to do is not lose, and he did not lose. He seriously is like a co-host up on the stage. He also certainly seems to enjoy being flanked by Newt and Cain and having Perry further away from the middle. He knows Cain is falling. I wonder how seriously he takes the Newt surge.

1. NEWT GINGRICH - Remember when Tim Pawlenty crumbled during the debate when asked about ObamneyCare? Newt demonstrated exactly how to get out of slamming your opponent to his face on stage. You can tell he knows his surge is coming. The one thing that seemed strange was his defense of killing a U.S. citizen if they're a terror suspect. I thought we weren't supposed to trust big government...? But Mitt said he was for it, too, so...

And where would I say their power rankings are now?

1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Ron Paul
4. Herman Cain
5. Jon Huntsman
6. Rick Perry
7. Michelle Bachmann
8. Rick Santorum