As it stands June 5.
1. (1) Mitt Romney - 29.7%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 19.2%
3. (3) Jon Huntsman - 15.5%
4. (6) Sarah Palin - 7.0%
5. (-) Rick Perry - 5.5%
6. (7) Michelle Bachmann - 5.5%
7. (5) Herman Cain - 4.8%
8. (-) Chris Christie - 3.0%
9. (-) Rudy Giuliani - 2.0%
10. (10) Ron Paul - 1.9%
Rising: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Chris Christie
Falling: Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mitch Daniels
Since Mitch Daniels dropped out, there seems to be a desperation among certain GOP players to get someone else in. Rick Perry, Chris Christie and Rudy Giulani have all said they're not running, but the field is perceived as weak enough that maybe some think one of these guys could waltz in and save the day. (Does no one remember Rudy's 2008 campaign?)
But of those that are there, Romney's hold to front-runner status is getting a little tighter, and with this Sarah Palin documentary debuting in Iowa later this month, it's raising speculation she might actually run.
I look at InTrade more than most because this is people putting their money where their mouth is. The one GOP debate did nothing for any participant except Herman Cain. It didn't lose Tim Pawlenty points, but it signalled to voters they can go ahead and keep ignoring Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will always have his sliver of popularity.
I look at Iowa and think Palin has a shot of taking it. Iowa spurned Romney for Huckabee last time after Huck played up the religion angle, and I don't see Iowans being much warmer toward him this time around. Hutsman's already signalled he plays to skip it, and Pawlenty, well, maybe.
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