Tuesday, October 23, 2012

67 Things I Learned from the Final Presidential Debate

"Ha ha, Mitt, if you get ahead in Ohio, I've got a drone with your name on it."


1.  Pres. Obama and Gov. Romney have no problem lying right to each other's faces right off the bat. They shook hands with big smiles and both said "Nice to see you again."
2.  Bob Schieffer sets the table nicely for Libya, asking if it was an intelligence failure, was it a policy failure?
3.  First shot of Obama while Romney is giving his answer screams disdain.
4.  Romney gives credit for the president having Bin Laden killed, but talks about the continued spread of al-Qaeda. "We can't kill our way out of this mess."
5.  Obama "My first job is to keep the American people safe, and that's what I've done the past four years.  We ended the war in Iraq." Gets to Libya, says the first three things he did when he heard was to see if they could get our people out safely, make sure we investigate what happened, and then find and bring to justice whoever killed those four men.

6.  Says Romney's all over the map on foreign policy and his strategy wouldn't keep America safe.
7.  Romney says we don't want another Iraq or Afghanistan, says economic development helps with foreign relations, better education, gender equality, etc. We've watched this rising tide of tumult and chaos in the Middle East... and now we get to our first interruption.
8.  Obama says Romney wants the foreign policy of the 1980's, the social policies of the 1950's and the economic policy of the 1920's. (I wonder how long ago that line was written.)  Now he's being condescending "I know you haven't had a chance to execute foreign policy..." (Oh, like you had before you were elected?)  Says Romney's wrong and "all over the map" again.
9.  Back to Romney, says he doesn't concur with what Obama just said, and they don't happen to be accurate. "Attacking me is not an agenda." Ooh, Obama didn't like that one. Obama goes to interrupt again and Romney says "Excuse me" and continues. Says he won't wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia, says he won't give Russia "more flexibility" after the election, he'll give "more backbone."
10. Regarding Iraq, we agreed on a status of forces agreement in Iraq; Obama interrupts and says no, he didn't. (I've already read that Obama fails the fact-check on that one.)

11. Obama says we need to recognize we can't keep doing nation building in these regions, we need to nation-build at home too.
12. Schieffer wants to go into more depth with Syria.
13. Obama said Assad has to go, they've organized sanctions, they've provided relief, but Syrians have to determine their own future.
14. Romney says 30,000 Syrians killed is a humanitarian disaster, also says Syria is Iran's closest ally, so removing Assad is a high priority. Emphasizes we don't want to do military intervention, but we will do everything else we can to help the resistance. I believe Assad must go and will go. We've seen our policy say "Oh, we'll let the UN deal with it." That didn't work. "We'll let Russia deal with it." That didn't work. We need to have a leadership role in this.
15. Obama: "We do have a leadership role." He goes at Romney again like he's the challenger and Romney's the incumbent.

16. Romney: "This has been going on for a year. We should taken a leadership role on this." Wants to arm the resistance.
17. Obama said Romney is basically arguing for what we're already doing in Syria.
18. Schieffer (who's doing great) asks if Obama regrets saying Mubarak has to go when he said it.
19. Obama does not regret it. Says America needs to stand for democracy whereever it may spring. Says Egypt has to abide by their treaty with Israel.
20. Romney says the US has 42 allies around the world, but says nowhere in the world is our influence greater now than it was four years ago. America has the responsibility and privilege of defending freedom around the world.  When people vote, they tend to vote for peace.  Interesting to hear how often Romney uses the word "peace."

21. Romney talks about needing a strong military because we don't know what's coming.  Said terrorism never came up in 2000 debates, but a year later, 9/11 happened.
22. Obama: "America is the world's one indispensible nation." (Huh, I wonder how other countries will take that line.) My plan will rebuild America. We won't reward companies for shipping jobs overseas. We need to reduce our deficit; unfortunately Romney's plan won't do that.  At home and abroad, Romney's proposed wrong and reckless policies. (I think that's the second time he used that phrase.)
23. Romney says he'll fix the economy with five steps. 1. Move toward energy independance. 2. Improve our trade. We can do better, especially in Latin America. Latin America's economy's almost as big as China's. 3. We need trainer programs to improve job skills and have better school. 4. We need a balanced budget. 5. We've got to champion small business.
24. Obama slams Romney's record in Massachusetts on small business. Under my leadership, we improved education.
25. Romney praises Massachusetts' education system. Obama interrupts again to say the good stuff happened before he got there. Romney plows through, says they improved education. (Obama's getting Biden-esque in his interruptions.) Romney says, "That was mine; you got that fact wrong."

26. Obama says the military does not want the extra $2 trillion in spending that Romney's asking for. Military spending has gone up every year under me. We can't spend $5 trillion on tax cuts without naming what deductions we're getting rid of. The math doesn't work. We need to be thinking about capabilities.
27. Romney: "I'm pleased that I've balanced budgets. I've been in business for 25 years. If you didn't balance a budget, you went out of business. I went to the Olympics and balanced the budget there. I went to Massachusetts, balanced the budgets there. The president has yet to balance a budget. I hope I get the opportunity to do so." Our Navy is smaller now than anytime since 1917. We're shrinking through sequestration. Our Air Force is older and smaller. I will not cut our military by a trillion dollars, which is the president's plan.
28. Obama says sequestration will not happen. (Um, it is happening.) Gov. Romney says we have fewer ships in the Navy [FactCheck: Navy was actually smallest under GWB]. Well, we also use fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our military's changed.  "We have these things called aircraft carriers than planes can land on. We have these underwater ships called nuclear submarines..." The Navy isn't a game of Battleship.  (Horses and bayonets would have been a better line if he hadn't kept going and ventured into a-hole territory. Now he's really like the sarcastic challanger trying to get a rise out of the incumbent.) (Marines still use bayonets.)
29. Their approaches telegraph what their internal polling shows, and Obama's being more aggressive here.  Hm...
30. This is a kinder, gentler Romney.  Doesn't want to be rude, wants to be more appealing to women.  Ah, women.  Those delicate flowers who leap like gazelles from a meadow when good manners aren't displayed.

31. Obama says we have the strongest sanctions against Iran in history.
32. Obama's wearing a blue tie and being very appealing to his base. Romney's wearing a red-and-blue striped tie and is tacking to the center.
33. Romney: "When I'm President of the United States, I'll stand with Israel." Finds a nuclear Iran unacceptable. "I laid out a seven-point crippling-sanctions plan for Iran five years ago." Sanctions works, it's working now, I wish they'd been imposed sooner, and they should be increased.  Military action is a LAST resort.
34. Scheiffer asks about the story that the US and Iran are in negotiations. Obama says that appeared in a newspaper; it's not true. Glad Romney's agreeing with us on Iran now. We have to make sure Russia and China agree with us on sanctions.  It's because the world agreed, the sanctions are working. The inspections are intrusive.
35. Romney says Obama showed weakness when he promised in 2008 to meet with Castro, Chavez, Achmadinejad. Then he started this apology tour and created daylight between us and Israel. (Obama bristled at "apology tour" now looks like he can't wait for his turn. But he's not interrupting.) Romney says we need to indict Achmadinejad.

36. Obama: "Nothing Gov. Romney just said is true." Says "apology tour" is not true, and every reporter agrees. When I was negotiating sanctions, you were invested in a Chinese company that used Iranian oil. (Huh?) When I came into office, the world was in crisis and Iran was surging. Now they're weak.
37. Romney: "We're four years closer to a nuclear Iran." Says the reason he calls it an apology tour is becuz you went to the Middle East, flew to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, and by the way, you skipped Israel, and they noticed you skipped Israel. (Romney looking Obama right in the eye for all this.) You said on Arabic TV that America had been "dismissive and derisive." You said America had "dictated" to other nations. America has not dictated to other nations; America has freed other nations from dictators. (Romney drops the mic, leans back.)
38. Obama: "Bob, let me respond. When I was a candidate for office, the first trip I took was to visit our troops. When I went to Israel as a candidate, I didn't take donors, I visited the Holocaust Museum." (This strangely reinforces an image that he sucked up to Israel when campaigning but now ignores them.) I visited sites where Hamas had rained missiles on houses. That's how I used my travels. This is about who's more credible.
39. Schieffer: "What if the Prime Minister of Israel called and said our bombs are on the way to Iran? How would you respond?" Romney says let's not get into hypotheticals because my relationship with Netanyahu is such that I'd never get that call saying bombers are on the way. This is the kind of thing that would have been discussed well before it got to that.
40. Romney: "Back to what the President said." I see Iran closer to a nuclear weapon. I see jihadists continuing to spread. I see Syria with 30,000 dead and Assad still in power. I see North Korea continuing to export nuclear technology. I don't see our influence growing around the world.

41. Obama: "You've been all over the map." (Drink!) You initially opposed a timetable in Afghanistan, now you're for it, but it depends. You said in 2008 you'd ask permission of Pakistan to look for Bin Laden. If I'd asked for permission, we wouldn't have gotten him. I have made decisions that keep the American people safe. (Strong there.)
42. Schieffer: "What do you do if we get to 2014 and Afghanistan isn't ready to take over their own security?" Romney: "We'll be out by the end of 2014. Our troops will come home at that point." We need to recognize what's happening in Pakistan. Some people want us to wash our hands and walk away from them. I don't mean you, Mr. President, but some people. our aid to Pakistan has to be aligned with benchmarks being met.
43. Obama: "When I came into office, we were mired in Iraq and had been drifting in Afghanistan for a decade." Once Iraq War ended, he surged in Afghanistan, and it was as if we'd forgotten why we were there in the first place. There's no reason for Americans to die when Afghans are capable of defending their own country. After a decade of war, it's time to do some nation-building here at home. We should make sure our veterans are getting the care they need, certifications for good jobs.
44. Romney: "We can't let Pakistan fall. There's nuclear weapons there. I don't blame this administration for strained relations with Pakistan. We had to go in to get Bin Laden."
45. Schieffer asks about drones. Romney says he supports the White House's use of drones "entirely."  (Okay, what about the kill list? Nothing? *sigh*) Is Al-Qaeda on its heels? No. Is there tumult in the Middle East? Yes.

46. Obama comfortably takes the serve from Romney, says Americans should be proud of Tunisians when protesting, America stood with them sooner than any other nations. Egypt, we stood with democracy. Attitudes abroad toward America have changed. Al-Qaeda is much weaker than they were when I took office. (Really, when it comes down to it, the foreign policies of Obama and Romney are going to be about 70% the same; that's what I'm getting at this point.)
47. Obama ties it back to domestic issues regarding trade with China. We've won just about every trade complaint we've filed against China. We stood up for steel-workers in Pennsylvania, tire-makers in [insert swing state here].
48. Romney: "It's not government that makes businesses grow." China wants a stable world. they don't want war. If I'm elected, America will be strong.
49. I'm watching Fox News for this debate, which means no dials across the bottom and about 1/4 of the time, we just get the speaker's face instead of split-screen.
50. Romney: "China is already playing a silent trade-war with us and they're winning. We have to say you can't artificially keep your currency, steal our intellectual property, counterfeit our goods, and steal our jobs."

51. Obama: "Gov. Romney's right..." (holy cow, is Obama about to be cordial?)
52. "...and he is familiar with shipping jobs overseas, but you invested in companies that shipped jobs overseas." (Nope. Very few on the left will agree with this, but Obama is being small right now. Not conveying that "I'm the President; I'm above this" air at all.)
53. Obama: "China can be our partner, but we need to be clear with them, we're a Pacific partner. Ships can pass through. We need to do more trade with other countries so China feels more pressure to comply with international standards."
54. Romney: "Again, attacking me is not an agenda for getting more trade." Goes back to the auto industry. My plan for the auto industry was for them to go through bankruptcy, my plan-- [Obama interrupting again] -- had them being able to shed debt, excess costs. I've never said i would liquidate the industry [Obama: "Let's check the transcript!" Sorry, Mr. president, but Candy Crowley isn't moderating this time.]
55. Romney: "The government is investing in companies like Solyndra, which is the wrong way to go. [Obama: "Governor, I--] I'm still speaking. The prviate sector is not going to invest in solar companies [Obama interrupting...]

56. Obama: "Anyone can look this up.  You keep trying to airbrush history. You said you would not provide govt. assistance to the auto industry even if they went through bankruptcy. You said they could get it in the private marketplace. That isn't true. [Romney: "You're wrong."] I'm not wrong. [Romney: "Anybody can check the record on this."] You're right. People will look it up. [[Politifact and FactCheck agree Obama's wrong.]] For us to be competitive, we need to make smart choices.  Cutting investments in education will not help us keep up with China.  We need more teachers.  $5 trillion in tax cuts will not make us more competitive. Having a tax code that rewards companies for shipping jobs overseas will not keep us competitive.
57. Romney: "I don't want to go back to the policies of the past four years." 23 million still struggling to find a good jobs.  32 million on food stamps when you came to office, 47 million now.  When you came to office, we were almost $11 trillion in debt, now it's $16 trillion. it's critical to make America the most attractive place in the world. Bu the way, the federal government doesn't hire teachers. I was a governor. I love teachers.
58. Schieffer: "I think we can all agree we love teachers." Time to wrap up.
59. Obama: "You've heard three debates, months of campaigning, and way too many TV commercials." (Romney's social laugh.) Gov. Romney's ways are wrong and reckless. He wants to make sure the people at the top don't play by the same rules you do. I want to retrain our workers for the jobs of tomorrow. I want to reduce our deficit by cutting spending we don't need and by asking the wealthy to do a little bit more. After a decade of war, we need to do some nation-building here at home. We always bounce back because of our character. i will listen to your voices; I will fight for your families; I will work every single day to make sure we're the greatest nation on Earth.
60. Romney: "I'm optimistic about the future. I want to see peace. America has the opportunity to elect a leader that will secure peace and make sure this economy will grow. We have two paths. The president's path will mean further decline in take-home pay. I'll make sure we increase take-home pay. I promise 12 million jobs in my first term. Washington is broken. I know what it takes to get us back. We're blessed with a nation prosperous and free thanks to the greatest generation. It's our turn to take that torch. I'll lead you in an open and honest way. We'll work together to maintain America as the greatest hope for freedom.

61. Bob Schieffer leaves us with the wisdom from his mother. "Go vote. It makes you feel big and strong."  And it's over.

Bob Schieffer was great. Easily the best moderator of this season.
As Bret Baier recaps, we get shots of the Romneys and Obamas mingling.  Dang, I'd love to know what Obama just whispered in Tagg's ear.  Romney picks up one of his younger grandkids to meet the President.

Okay, let me digest this a minute...

Okay.  I said I learned 67 things and here they are the rest.

62. Seems pretty clear that Romney's game-plan was to act like he's the incumbent with a slight lead, and Obama debated as if he's the challenger slightly behind.  Obama did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm of his base, and Romney passed the "looking presidential" test.  His base will be there; he's still trying to get more of that 4-5% Undecided crowd.

63. Isolating the debate, I'd say Obama edged Romney.  More on offense, more aggressive, but it's a different Obama than we've seen before.  He's decided to be a little more MSNBC, just embrace the inner prick-ness of being the most powerful man in the world.  It's like Obama trying to appeal more to men, where he's behind, and Romney's trying to appeal more to women, where he's behind.  Interesting dichotomy we have going here.

64. We seem to live in a country where half the country thinks that if the other guy wins, America is doomed into a fiery pit of despair.  And by that I mean 24% from this side and 26% from that side.  And you know what, the vast majority of those people vote.

65. Romney's made more of a theme lately of working with Democrats and Republicans of getting things done.  Obama has emphasized continually how Republicans just obstruct everything he tries to do.  And sure they do.  But this is why Obama's not as good a President as Clinton.  Clinton could wage his battles with Newt Gingrich, do it with a smile, negotiate later, and then get things done.  Even when he was getting impeached.

66. Now when it comes to foreign policy, it's pretty clear they have a lot in common.  And some of that is too bad.  Nothing about the NDAA. Nothing about the "kill list." Nothing about the US president deciding he can order the death of anyone deemed a terrorist, including US citizens.

67. Oh well.  The RCP average as of this moment has Romney up +0.9%, so Election Day should be pretty exciting, and so should all the Morning-After lawsuits.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Mitt's Swing-State Momentum


Gallup and PPP can be interesting polls on their own, but the ones I am paying attention to more are the RealClearPolitics average and the 538 model.  When it comes to the general election, RCP has Romney at +0.5 and 538 has Obama at +1.1.  It's a close race.  Just three weeks ago, RCP had Obama +4.0 and 538 had Obama +4.9.

Here's a look at 12 swing states from RCP. The 2008 election results compared to where each state's polling averages are now.  As you can see, Obama's support has slipped in all 12 states.

State Nov-08 Oct-12
1. Florida Obama +2.8 Romney +2.5
2. N. Carolina Obama +0.3 Romney +4.7
3. Virginia Obama +6.3 Obama +0.8
4. Ohio Obama +4.6 Obama +2.4
5. Colorado Obama +9.0 Romney +0.7
6. Wisconsin  Obama +13.9 Obama +2.0
7. N. Hampshire Obama +9.6 Obama +0.8
8. Missouri McCain +0.1 Romney +7.7
9. Pennsylvania Obama +10.3 Obama +5.0
10. Nevada Obama +12.5 Obama +3.0
11. Iowa Obama +9.5 Obama +2.3
12. Michigan Obama +16.4 Obama +4.4

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

56 Things I Learned from the 2nd Presidential Debate



I caught parts of it live in a rowdy house, but then I sat down to watch the whole thing start to finish.

1.  I really dislike the worship of the "undecided voter" in October 2012.  Maybe 20, 30 years ago, several were undecided, but really, by now, 95% of the country's made up their mind.
2.  First question is a nervous college student asking how he'll be able to support himself after he graduates college.  Mitt Romney starts by thanking everyone.
3.  Mitt wants to keep Pell grants growing but wants to keep jobs growing. Says half of college graduates don't have a college-level job or job at all.  Brings up Biden's line about the middle class being crushed the past four years.
4. Barack Obama reassures the student his future is bright.  Says he wants to build on the 5 million private-sector jobs created in the last 30 months.  Says Romney wanted Detroit to go bankrupt, but he wants to bring back manufacturing. "I want everybody to get a great education." We've got to control our own energy.  We'll ask the wealthy to pay a little bit more.
5. Crowley intercedes, asks Romney about the long-term unemployed who need a job right now.  Romney points out his plan will bring back 12 million jobs in the next four years.  Romney looks right at the president to clarify the Detroit bankruptcy line.

6. Obama says what Romney says just isn't true. Says Romney's plan is that the folks at the top play by a different set of rules, ship jobs overseas and get tax breaks, painting Romney as Gordon Gekko.
7.  Crowley doesn't want to let Romney respond, move to next question.
8.  Second question is about the energy department says it's not their job to lower gas prices. Says oil's at its highest productivity in 16 years. Wants to open up new areas for drilling (what?!) and do it in an environmentally sound way.  Says Romney's plan to let the oil companies write the energy policies.
9.  Romney says let's look at the president's policies instead of the rhetoric. Says oil production is down 14% on federal land, says licenses were cut in half on federal land.  Rattles off all the different energy sources we can use.
10. Obama starts by saying "very little of what Gov. Romney said is true." Ooh, that shot of Obama's expression shows he really does not like Romney.  Tim Roth on Lie to Me would do a freeze-frame on it.  Says he wants to do more in the next four years.

11. Romney jumps up and says "But that's not what you did the last four years." Points out again Obama cut licenses, and Obama says "Not true." (Actually it IS true.) Romney says production is down 9% and Obama says "Not true."  Obama's plan seems to be to say anything Romney just said isn't true.
12. Romney laying out great specifics on his energy plan.
13. Crowley intercedes, asks Obama about the price of gas. $1.86 when he took office, $4 a gallon now. Obama says gas was cheap because the economy was hurting.  So... the economy's great now, but if he tries to lower gas prices, it'll create a new recession?
14. Obama says there are thousands in Iowa working wind jobs.
15. Romney wants to respond, but Crowley won't let him. He barrels forward anyway, says Obama misrepresented his position again.  He really shouldn't do that. But then Obama whines that he's used to being interrupted, so I guess it's a wash.

16. Third question asks about specific deductions Romney would get rid of if he gets his tax plan in place, particularly the mortgage-interest deduction, charitable donations, child tax credits, etc. The questioner forgets which other credits she wanted to say, and Obama says "You're doing great."
17. Romney says again middle-income taxpayers have been buried the past four years, with gas prices up, health-care costs down, wages down. Says under his plan, the top 5% taxpayers will still pay 60% of the taxes share as they do today.  He says taxpayers will have a dollar amount - $25,000 - of deductions they can use, be it on mortgage or child tax-credit or whatever they choose. I want to help the people in the middle class.  I will not under any circumstances lower the share of taxes the people on the high end pay. He's doing really good here.
18. Obama says he wants to get the middle class some relief. Says Republicans are holding 98% of taxpayers hostage to get their taxes raised so they can save the top 2%.  Says Romney has a different philosophy, says it's fair for the richer to have lower share.  He really has this level of disdain in his voice when attacking Romney.  Really reminds me of how McCain felt about Obama.
19. Romney repeats his plan, spells out more why lower rates help small businesses. Wants to balance the budget, champion small business.
20. Crowley asks Obama to address Romney's claim that the top 5% will not pay less. "Settled?" Obama laughs at the softball, repeats his line about how Romney wants to add $8 trillion to deficit via cutting taxes for the rich, raise defense spending, etc.  Oh, he brought up Big Bird. Let it go, Mr. President.  Now the figure switches to $7 trillion.

21. Romney wants to respond, but Crowley frames the follow-up, asks him if the math doesn't add up, will he revisit those tax cuts? Romney says he ran businesses and balanced the budgets, ran the Olympics and balanced the budget, ran massachusetts as best a minority-party governor can and balanced the budget all four years, wouldn't do it if the math didn't add up. What math doesn't add up? An extra $5 trillion to the deficit the past four years.
22. Romney says when Obama ran for president, he promised to cut the deficit in half, instead he's doubled it.  Says re-electing Obama would lead to the debt growing to $20 trillion, then Crowley interrupts Romney even though he's behind on time to get the next question in.
23. Fourth question is about equal wages for men and women. Obama talks about hsi single mother, about the successful women in his life, and yet the glass ceilings they hit. Said his first bill signed was Lily Ledbetter Act. "In every walk of life, we do not tolerate discrimination."
24. Romney points out he went out of his way to staff his Cabinet with women. My staff found "binders of women". He meant women's resumes, but that trended on Twitter, but I wouldn't have given it a second thought if I didn't know that.  Half of his staff in Massachusetts were female.
25. Obama needs to tell a joke or something. He's gone back and forth between anger and contempt most of the night. But an ENGAGED contempt.  Smile, dude.

26. Somewhere in there, we got to contraception. Ah, the war on women.
27. Fifth question is from "an undecided voter" but says the economy is Bush's fault; what is the difference between you and Bush?  Confetti just went off in MSNBC's control room.  Romney first wants to address the "totally wrong" potrayal Obama just gave.
28. Romney starts pointing out the differences. He'd be better on energy, better on trade. Better on getting the balanced budget. Says Obama was right when he criticized Bush for raising up half-a-trillion in deficit. Ah, but Obama doubled the deficit. Says he'll be better at championing small businesses while the GOP has spent too much time championing big business.
29. Split-screen finally caught a smile on Obama, when Romney says "well, I have a lot of problems with Obamacare."
30. Obama strolls up to the opportunity to blame Bush and looks very comfortable. Obama says Romney and Bush do have some differences. Bush never suggested we eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood. Says Romney's more extreme on social policy.

31. Sixth question is from Obama voter who's disillusioned. Why should he be re-elected? Obama lists some promises he kept, like cutting taxes, ending the war in Iraq, killing Bin Laden, passing tough Wall Street reforms. We saved the auto industry.  Pivots to attack Romney on his pledges, like raising no taxes, cutting Planned Parenthood. Says Obamacare and Romneycare are the same thing, and Romneycare's working well in Massachusetts.
32. Romney to the questioner. "I think you know better. I think you know better that the past four years haven't been as great as the President described." We just can't afford four more years like the last four years. Points out all of Obama's promises he hasn't kept. Obama said health-care costs would go down; they've gone up. Said he'd pass immigration reform in his first year; hasn't even filed it. Said he'd get unemployment to 5.4%; we're not. Said he'd cut the deficit in half; he doubled it. Romney's really strong in this answer.
33. Romney says Obama's great at describing his plans, but he has a record now, and he hasn't lived up to his promises. He's done. Crowley brings up the clock (Romney's down four minutes at this point.)
34. Seventh question asks "What do you plan to do with immigrants who don't have their green crad but are contributing to this country?" Romney says I want our immigrations sytem to be easier, make sure our legal system works.  Won't grant amnesty; will put into place employment verification system. Points out President has majority in both houses but did nothing with immigration.
35. Hey, at this angle I can see the clock counting down their time.

36. Obama: "We are a nation of immigrants." "But we also a nation of laws." I've done everything I can "on my own" and by trying to get Congress to help.
37. This past 10-15 minutes has been cordial and substantive. I'm sure that will end soon.
38. Obama points out Romney said he would have vetoed the Dream Act, said he favored self-deportation. Obama lies and says Romney called the Arizona Immigration law a model for the nation, then subtlely suggests that his daughter or the questioner's daughter could be subject to racial profiling when it comes to enforcing immigration laws. "I don't want to empower someone like that." Hey, I tried.
39. Crowley wants Romney to address self-deportation. Romney says he supports E-Verify, but not the Arizona Immigration law. Says Obama didn't answer Univision's question when he did nothing about immigration reform.  Romney tries to answer Obama's comment on China; Obama interrupts, but he gets to answer. Obama had said Romney's blind trust invests in Chinese companies so he's the last person who should "get tough" on China. Romney says to Obama, "Have you looked at your pension?" Obama says he's sure it's smaller than his, which was about what Newt's response was when he tried this on Mitt in the primaries. Says Obama's also invested in Chinese companies and Obama interrupts and says "We're off-topic here." Point for Romney.
40. Obama doubles down on the Arizona Immigration law. Obama blames Republicans for blocking him from getting anything done. Romney pledges he'll do it his first year.

41. Eighth question is about Libya. The State Department refused extra security on Benghazi before the attacks. Who is it that refused the extra security and why?
42. Obama talks first about our diplomats who serve all over the world. When he heard of attacks, he said beef up security, find out what happened, and then we'll hunt them down. Now Gov. Romney had different response. Says Romney put out press release making political points. When it comes to our national security, I mean what I say. I said we'd transition out of Afghanistan; we are. Says he's ultimately responsible for what happens overseas.
43. Romney underlines how Obama said the buck stops with him, feels for the families. Says there were many days that passed when they blamed the video. You have to ask yourself "Why didn't we know?" I find it more troubling that the next day, after four Americans were killed, Obama flew to Las Vegas for fundraiser. We've read the eyewitness accounts now, we know what happened. It was a terrorist attack. it calls the entire obama foreign policy into question. Look at what's happening Egypt and Syria, and now Libya. Iran is four years closer to a nuclear bomb.
44. Crowley points our Hillary said she takes full responsibility for Benghazi. Obama says she works for me; I'm responsible. Obama said the day after the attack, he stood in the Rose Garden and identified it as act of terror (not true; more on that later.)  A few days later, I greeted the four caskets and grieved with the families, and the suggestion that anyone on my team would play politics or mislead is offensive. That's not what we do. (Strong moment for Obama.  Even if Ambassador Rice did mislead.)
45. Romney questions his calling it an act of terror the day after it happened. It took the president 14 days to call it an act of terror. Crowley interjects  and says the President did call it an act of terror. (LIE!!!!) But applause from audience. Now Romney's fumbling but it's thanks to Crowley reinforcing Obama on his lie, and Obama interrupts and we move on.

46. Here's the thing. I get candidates are going to lie and mislead in debates. It just happens. But when the moderator decides to fact-check in real-time for the first time in a debate in front of the entire country, she'd better be right. (Crowley admitted her error about an hour after the debate was over.)
47. Ninth question is about banning assault weapons. Obama doesn't seem that interested in answering this one.
48. Romney says we need to change the culture of violence. We agree on the need for good schools. Let me mention another thing. Parents. We need moms and dads to raise their kids. Then brings up Fast & Furious. Thousands of automatic weapons were given to drug lords who killed their own people and Americans with them, and this occured under this administration. Obama implemented Executive Privilege to block us from learning everything about it.
49. Crowley wants him to be specific on his views on assault-weapons ban. He starts to answer and she interrupts to ask him if he'd re-ban those assault weapons that are legal now.
50.  Obama says Romney was for the assault-weapons ban before he was against it. (Ah, debating John Kerry finally pays off!) Talks about good schools and families. Crowley says we need to move along, but Obama says "This is important!" Crowley tries to move him to the next point, and Obama finally allows it.

51. Tenth question "Outsourcing of American jobs has hurt the US economy; how will get those job back?" Romney: "Great question. China's now the #1 manufacturing country in the world. It used to be us." We won't do trickle-down government. We'll make government attractive to entrepreneurs, to big business, to small business. China doesn't play by the rules by artificially lowering their currency. China has been a currency manipulator for years and years. Might put tariffs on China.
52. Obama says they agree on lowering corporate tax rates, but I want to remove loopholes that give businesses benefits from offshoring jobs. Says Romney wants to expand those loopholes. Then Obama's starting to get lost in currency manipulation.
53. Romney says we can compete with anyone in the world when the playing field's level. Once he gets on a roll, Obama interrupts to ask how much time we got, and Crowley lets him cut in and answer even though he's got four more minutes on time.
54. Romney: "Government does not create jobs!"

55. Eleventh question: "What do you believe is the biggest misconception about you, and please debunk this misconception." Romney is grateful for the opportunity, says the Obama campaign is more focussed on attacking him rather than what they'd do for the future. I care about 100% of the American people. I want 100% of the people to have a bright and prosperous future. I care about our kids. My passion probably flows from my belief in God, and I believe we are all children of the same God. I served as a missionary for my church, served as pastor (bishop) for ten years and worked with people and helped them through tough times, served on the Olympics, as governor got 100% of our kids insured and about 98% of adults. We don't have to settle for what we're going through. We don't have to settle for 23 million struggling to find a good job. We don't have to settle for $4 a gallon gasoline, we don't have to settle for 47 million on food stamps. I'll make sure we can reform Medicare and Social Security for the future. I've done these things.

Nailed it.

56. Obama's turn. "I believe in self-reliance and inidivdual initiative." I believe everyone should have a fair shot. There's a fundamentally different vision between us. I believe he's a good man. When he said behind closed doors that 47% of Americans are victims he's talking about seniors who paid into Social Security, veterans, students. I want to make sure the next generation has those opportunities.

Also nailed it.

And it's over. Obama had three more minutes than Romney and deftly waited until Romney couldn't respond to bring up the 47% quote.

Obama showed life, he showed passion, he showed he really doesn't like Romney. Smart move on use of the 47% quote, even though Romney's closing remarks made it a hollow attack, but Obama supporters had to have rejoiced over it. Obama showed strength, but his weakest points were when defending his own record. Didn't have good answers on his broken promises, completely ignored Fast & Furious.

Romney was good in his own right. He was presidential, strong, ready with the stats, and good when he prosecuted Obama's record. He didn't capitalize as well as he could have on Libya, but he's going to win some "morning after" points since Crowley admitted she was wrong. He also keeps using this Apology Tour line.

The Benghazi thing has bothered me ever since it happened, and I eat up what info I can find on it, and it's staggering to me how the Obama Administration is re-writing history on this in real-time.  It's such a sloppy cover-up and yet why? Why did they blame it on the video? Why did they insist it was spontaneous? Why did they throw the intelligence community under the bus? Why did Obama not call it a terrorist attack at the U.N.? Why did Ambassador Rice go on all the Sunday talk shows and blame the video? Why did Hillary "take responsibility" for it last night, and why did Obama wait until today to do the same?  I will be very very surprised (and impressed) if the investigation behind what happened with Benghazi wraps up before the election.

But I digress.

Friday, October 12, 2012

50 Things I Learned from the Vice President Debate

"You're lucky Tony Horton taught me to respect to my elders."

1.  I love that the first question is about Benghazi. "Wasn't this a massive intelligence failure?"
2.  I really wish it wasn't CNN I recorded.  These dials at the bottom are going to bug the heck out of me.
3.  Biden said we'll find the men who killed Chris Stevens and "bring them to justice" (a favorite Bush phrase), but spends the rest of his answer bashing Romney.
4.  Ryan points out our ambassador in Paris has marine guards, why not our ambassador in Benghazi? "This is becoming more troubling by the day."
5.  Ryan answering each point Biden brought up. "We're watching the unraveling of the Obama foreign policy."
6.  I already can't wait for the Bad Lip-Read YouTube video.
7.  Biden knows he's on split-screen, keeping smiling, smirking, moving around, now Biden interrupts with "malarkey". "These guys bet against America all the time."
8.  Biden just threw the intelligence community under the bus, says it's their fault they blamed the YouTube video.  Then Biden says "we were never told they wanted more security."  Um, maybe Biden wasn't told, but the State Department was definitely told. Several times. Wow.
9.  Raddatz cuts off Ryan to talk about Iran, asks them to be specific about how effective a military strike would be.  Ryan talks up the sanctions against Iran but says Russia watered down the most recent round.  Says the administration has no credibility on Iran.
10. Biden laughs, says Russia and China, all of our allies wouldn't have gone with the Republican plan for sanctions.  Says the US and Israeli intelligence agree that Iran is a ways away from getting a nuclear weapon.
11. Ryan points out how Obama didn't meet with world leaders on Day 1 of the UN meetings but went on a talk show.  Raddatz interjects to say "You both saw Netanyahu draw the red line on the bomb."
12. Biden's making some giant cheesy face over there.  Says Netanyahu has been his friend for 39 years, says Obama talks to Bibi as much as anyone. Says this is "a bunch of stuff." Irish for malarkey. Says Iran is more isolated today than we took office.
13. Ryan starts to retort and Biden about splits a gut.
14. Ryan calls Iran the world's largest sponsor of terrorism, says they call America the Great Satan.
15. Biden says big nations can't bluff, this president doesn't bluff.
16. Raddatz switched to the economy, points out the unemployment just below 8% for the first time in 43 months, when Obama had promised the stimulus money would get it below 6%. "Would both of you level with the American people, can you get unemployment under 6% and when?"
17. Biden: "I don't know when, but we'll get it under 6%." Let's look at what we inherited. 9 million lost jobs, over $1 trillion in wealth lost.  Points out the 47% quote, starts to get redfaced cuz he says Romney's talking about his mom and dad. Namedrops Grover Norquist. Says we're "hemorraging" tax cuts for the super wealthy.
18. Ryan points out to Biden the unemployment rate in Scranton PA is 10% now when it was 8.5% when Obama took office. Biden about freaks out, but Raddatz insists he lets Ryan give his answer.  Ryan shares personal story about Romney helping family friend out with their son's college. He cares about 100% of the people in this country. Regarding the 47% quote, the VP knows the right words don't always come out.  First real laugh-line.
19. Biden says "But I always mean what I say!" Cue the clip of Biden saying "There gonna put y'all back in chains."
20. Ryan points out when they control, their party controlled WH and both parts of Congress. Biden tsks.  He interrupts, "Martha, Martha, my FRIEND...!"  I'd hate to see how Biden treats his enemies.  Biden gets in a good point about Ryan himself asking for some of the stimulus money for some of his constituents.
21. Ryan asks if it was a good idea to spend taxpayer dollars on windmills in China or luxury cars in Finland, to borrow money from China.
22. Biden laughs it off, says Moody called it a model. Ryan asks where the 5 million in green jobs are, but that's when Raddatz says "I want to move on."
23. Medicare and entitlements. Ryan: "Medicare and Social Security are going bankrupt. We need them. My grandmother moved in with us when she had Alzheimer's and Medicare and SS were there for her." Says we need to reform it for my generation. Obamacare took $716 billion out of Medicare; we'll put it back. Now he'll talk about vouchers... (Holy cow, Biden has a giant shark grin. Reminds me of those Alice in Wonderland drawings.)
24. Biden: "Who do you trust? Me, or a guy who wanted to raise Medicare costs $6400 a year?"
25. Ryan says he knows Biden "under diress" to do well after Obama's debate, but says we'll be better served if we don't keep interrupting each other.  Biden then interrupts Ryan's next answer about eight times.
26. I think I'd like to see all of Martha Raddatz's questions lined up together. Pretty sure most of them aren't getting answered.
27. Biden avoided talking about raising benefit age, Ryan's getting more specific about their plan, Biden then trashes their plan.  Ryan says this is what politicans do when they don't have their own plan.  Yeah, I can see why both sides say they won.  Biden is full of passion and energy and deflecting everything back to Romney.  Ryan's holding his own, not getting flustered.
28. Can you imagine if this Biden had been the one who showed up for the 2008 VP debate?
29. Biden just treating with Ryan with utter contempt.
30. Raddatz switches to defense. Biden and Raddatz not letting Ryan finish his sentences. "Do we believe in peace through strength; you bet we do."
31. Ryan points out they agree with Obama's 2014 withdrawal in Afghanistan. Talks about the comparisons of his visits there in 2002 and 2012.
32. Biden says he's been to Afghanistan and Iraq 20 times. "We decimated Al-Qaeda central, we killed Osama bin Laden." It is the responsibility of the Afghans to take over their security. "We are leaving in 2014. Period."
33. Raddatz asks Ryan what conditions would cause military to stay in 2014. "We don't want to stay." Repeats "the unravelling of the Obama foreign policy."
34. Raddatz asks about the surge numbers and Biden gets snippy with her.
35. The US assisted rebels in Libya, why not in Syria? Biden says the last thing we need is another ground war. (Um, so why DID we assist the rebels in Libya, and why did we send troops to the Jordan border?)
36. After Ryan gives his answer on what they'd do differently, Biden says he didn't answer what they'd do differently.
37. Remember how the post-debate talk from Obama's camp was dismissive of Romney's debate "performance"? They can't possibly go back to that line after Biden's guffawing and gesticulating all night.
38. Raddatz wants to return it home. Biden and Ryan are both Catholic. "What role has your religion played in your views on abortion?" Ryan: "My faith informs me we need to take care of the vulnerable."
39. Ryan just said the Romney administration would oppose abortion except for cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother, but I'm pretty sure earlier this week, Romney said he wasn't going to go after abortion as president.
40. Biden's suddenly calmer, with a quieter gravelly voice. He says he accepts his church's position on when life begins, and he accepts it personally, but he refuses to impose that on other people. "I just fundamentally disagree with my friend."
41. I'm starting to think Biden doesn't know what the word "friend" means.
42. Ryan's making it sound like they'd want Roe v Wade overturned. Biden points out this election is about who gets to appoint the next two Supreme Court justices. Biden says they'd pick justices with an open mind, without an agenda. Ryan: "Was there a litmus test on them?" Biden: "No litmus test."
43. For some reason I just remembered how Biden made Samuel Alito's wife cry at Alito's hearing before his nomination.
44. Raddatz brings up the negative campaigning. "At the end of the day, are you ever embarrassed by the tone?" Biden finds a way to bring up the 47% quote again, but says he's sure both sides wish they didn't have these giant anonymous PACs saying scurrilous things. He almost called Gov. Romney his friend but caught himself.
45. Ryan says Obama's turned "Hope and Change" into "Attack, Blame and Defame." Ryan rattles off broken promises of the Obama campaign. Leaders run to problems to fix problems, but Obama's never put a credible solution on the table. He doesn't have a plan; he has a speech.
46. Biden doesn't address anything Ryan said, just rattles off all the damage the Ryan budget plan would do.
47. Raddatz asks what you could give to this country "as a man, as a human being that no one else could?"  As a human being?  As opposed to a Venus flytrap?
48. Biden whining about time when he's ahead by 90 seconds. "Look at my record; it's all about the middle class."
49. Biden closing statement, thanks Martha, the college. Starts by blaming Bush, goes back to taking offense on the 47% comment, "he's talking about my mother and father." I think Biden is losing his voice.
50. Ryan thanks Martha, the college, and Joe. He looks right at the camera for his closing statement, and those eyes... I see why the Paul Ryan Gosling meme took off. "At the time we have a job crisis, wouldn't it be nice to have a job creator in the White House?" "We will not blame others for the next four years; we will take responsbility."

And we're done.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Romney wins first 2012 presidential debate

"I hope you don't mind I'm about to kick your butt, Mr. President."

DVR'd the debate and watched it after the kids were in bed, but based on what I saw on Twitter, apparently Romney beat Obama.

7:03 - I feel like I'm watching a movie where I've already read a spoiler-filled review.
7:04 - Obama's spending his 20th anniversary doing this debate. I feel for him.
7:06 - Obama: "The question is not where we've been but where are we going." Don't look at the past four years.
7:07 - Obama's wearing a blue tie and Romney a red, in case you weren't sure which one's which.

7:08 - Romney starts out with personal stories of people, leading to his five-part plan.
1. Energy independence
2. Open up more trade, esp. in Latin America
3. Make sure we have best schools in world.
4. Balanced budget.
5. Champion small business.

7:09 - There's a slight gravelly quality to Romney's voice tonight.
7:10 - "Economic patriotism." "Trickle-down government."
7:11 - Obama says he'll improve education. Hire 100,000 new teachers. Keep tuition low. Points out where he and Romney agree, corporate tax rates too high, we need to be less dependant on foreign oil. Says Romney wants $5 trillion tax cut with another $1 trillion from Bush tax cuts, plus $2 trillion in increased military spending.
7:12 - Romney: "High-income people will do fine whether you're president or I am." Talks about the suffering middle class. Health-care costs up $2500 a family.
7:13 - It is weird how Obama looks down almost the whole time when he's not speaking. Maybe because Romney's looking at Obama almost the whole time.
7:14 - Romney promises to bring Keystone pipeline through US. Likes coal (which Virginia voters should like). Pledges not to cut any taxes that would add to deficit.
7:15 - Obama says he cut taxes for middle class families by about $3600 a family.  (Really? Thought it was more like $1200.)  Says Romney won't be specific about what loopholes or deductions he'd cut.
7:16 - Lehrer peeps occasionally but Obama keeps going.  Obama says Romney would further burden middle class.

7:17 - Romney: "Virtually everything he described is inaccurate." "I will not under any circumstance raise taxes on middle-income families." He's energetic and all smiles delivering this.
7:18 - Obama wants to go back to Clinton tax rates for the $250,000 or more crowd. Says they have different definition of small business. "By your definition, Donald Trump is a small business."
7:21 - Romney rattles off all the different taxes people pay.  Obama nods and says "Mm" and keeps looking down.  Romney just name-dropped Bowles-Simpson.
7:22 - Obama: "Math, common sense, and history tell us it's not the right approach." Obama basically says Romney's approach is Bush, his approach is Clinton.
7:23 - Romney smacks down Obama for repeating the $5 trillion tax cut line.

7:24 - Lehrer tries again to get them to be specific about lowering the deficit.  Romney calls the debt a moral issue. Adding a trillion a year is not moral.  Rattles off specifics how he'd cut spending, encourage growth.
7:25 - Romney: "The president said he'd cut the deficit in half.  He doubled it."
7:26 - Obama: "When I entered office, two unpaid-for wars, upaid-for tax cuts, etc." Says he took $50 billion of waste out of Medicare, Medicaid.  We'll raise taxes $1 on the rich for every $2.50 of spending.
7:30 - Obama looks angry as Romney reminds him he kept the Bush tax cuts in place.
7:35 - Obama gets a little wonky here, getting lost in the weeds.
7:36 - Romney pegs Obama on investing $90 billion in green-energy companies that went bankrupt.  Says he has no idea what Obama's talking about when he says companies gets bonusses for shipping jobs overseas.

7:40 - Entitlements, says Lehrer. What are your differences on Social Security?
7:42 - Obama emphasizing the need to lower health care costs to help with Medicare.
7:43 - Romney: "Neither the president nor I would change Social Security for retireees or near-retirees." Talks about how more hospitals are refusing Medicare patients. "I want to take the $716 billion you've cut from Medicare and put it back."
7:44 - Obama says Romney will eventually turn Medicare into a voucher program, but says the problem is it won't keep up with health-care inflation costs.
7:47 - Romney says the younger ones can choose between traditional Medicare or a private plan. Their choice.

7:50 - Obama says AARP is supportive of his approach, says Romney's would weaken Medicare.
7:51 - Lehrer now asks if there's too much or too little regulation in government. Romney says you need regulations; you can't just have people starting banks out of their garage, but steers it to bad regulations like Dodd-Frank.
7:52 - Maybe it's because I follow some hyper people, but I don't think Obama's doing that bad.  He's just lower energy, seems like he thinks he's ahead and wants to run out the clock. But I just realized how bored I got during his latest answer.
7:53 - Romney: "That's just not the facts." Says Obama and Dodd-Frank just gave a blank check to five banks and called them "too big to fail."
7:56 - Steers back to Obamacare. Romney cites specific people's stories about rising costs.

8:06 - I forgot to take notes there. Very informative exchange, yet cordial, over their differences on Obamacare, reducing costs, etc.
8:07 - What was that backstage noise?
8:08 - Man, Obama's body language is terrible now. But then he says Romney's plan won't cover pre-existing conditions.
8:10 - Obama'a making his best points of the night pointing out how Romney's not being more specific. "Is he not telling us his plans because they're too good?"
8:11 - Lehrer doesn't want to let Romney respond to that, but Romney plows through. Says you can't get much done by saying "My way or the highway."
8:13 - Lehrer, "What are your differences in views on the federal government?"
8:15 - Obama: "The federal govt can't do it all, but it can make a difference."
8:16 - Romney: "The key to great schools is great teachers." Points out the Constitution and Dec of Independence on the walls behind them. Walks through them.  Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness. "Trickle-down govt" approach isn't working. 50% of college graduates can't find work.
8:17 - Fed govt role in education? Romney wants school choice. Obama plugs "race to the top" programs. Obama: "This is where budgets matter because in budgets you make choices."
8:21 - Obama gets a dig in on Romney saying one option from kids to pay for college is borrowing from their parents.

8:22 - Romney's first "zinger": "As President, you get your own airplane and your own house but you can't have your own facts" and then he starts countering some of the points Obama made.
8:23 - Obama has this grimace that says "Will someone shut this guy up?"
8:24 - Lehrer asks now about how to combat partisan gridlock. Romney points out when he was govnr of MA, he had 85% Democrats and he leanred how to get along. Said he'd sit down the day after he got elected with leaders of both parties to get things done. "Republicans and Democrats both love America."
8:26 - Obama: "I'll take ideas from anyone if it strengthens the middle class."
8:28 - Closing remarks. Obama says he promised he'd fight every single day for the American people, and he's kept that promise, and he promises he'll fight just as hard in his second term.
8:29 - Romney says he's running becuz he's concerned about the past four years. There's no question in my mind if the President is re-elected, you'll continue to see a middle-class squeeze. You'll see health-care premiums go up. If the President is re-elected, you'll see Medicare cut, and more hospitals turn medicare patients away.
8:30 - And we're done. Obama just said to Romney, "You won." The families meet each other. I actually love how they do this, meeting each other's kids and grandkids.  Obamas left after a minute, Romneys stay on stage, Mitt and Ann get a photo-op waving to some supporters.

I agree that Mitt Romney won tonight, but it wasn't that bad a stumble for the President. It's as if they're weeping and wailing to lower expectations for the second debate.

I just watched the Chris Matthews meltdown. Wow. I had to laugh by the end.

Just flipped to Wolf Blitzer and he has his "undecided focus group." Blech. And he points out the president had four more minutes of speaking time.

I'll check the fact check sites tomorrow.