My 10 Political Predictions for 2012

National

1. The longer the GOP nomination process goes on, the more supporters of Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush will float trial balloons that their person could get the nomination at a brokered convetion.

2. At least ten national columnists will refer to Barack Obama not upgrading his VP to the same mistake George H.W. Bush made in not dropping Dan Quayle.

3. The next of the IACaucus 7 will not drop out until New Hampshire, and it will be Michele Bachmann.

4. Mitt Romney will win the GOP nomination.

5. Marco Rubio will be his Vice-Presidential pick.

Utah-centric

6. Orrin Hatch will have to fight to keep his senate seat in a Primary fight.

7. Gary Herbert will have to fight to keep his governorship in a Primary fight.

8. Ethan Millard will regularly tweet withering comments about the corrupt cowardly delegate process.

9. Rocky Anderson will jump upon a donkey and charge toward a windmill.

10. Jim Matheson will narrowly hold on to his Congressional seat even though it's now in the 4th.

GOP InTrade Watch - 12/26/11

From InTrade

1. (1) - Mitt Romney 69.6%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 8.3%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 4.7%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 2.5%
5. (5) - Rick Perry - 2.4%
6. (7) - Rick Santorum - 1.4%
7. (6) - Michele Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (-) - Jeb Bush - .8%

Why did Jeb Bush show up?  Because of the trail balloon floated that if the Republicans have a brokered convention, Jeb Bush could sweep in and win the nomination.

I'm guessing Ron Paul has slipped due to the flack over the racially-tinged articles in the newsletter that bore his name.

Paul up in Iowa, Mitt up in New Hampshire

Nate Silver's awesome 538 blog has current projections as follows for the state caucuses and primaries. Obviously numbers change every few days but it's interesting to see where things stand right now.

IOWA

Ron Paul - 25.4%
Mitt Romney - 21.1%
Newt Gingrich - 15.5%
Rick Perry - 13.8%
Michele Bachmann - 10.9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Mitt Romney - 36.5%
Ron Paul - 19.9%
Newt Gingrich - 19.1%
Jon Huntsman - 13.5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA

Newt Gingrich - 37.9%
Mitt Romney - 23.2%
Ron Paul - 10.2%
Michele Bachmann - 9.8%
Rick Perry - 7.4%

FLORIDA

Newt Gingrich - 48.4%
Mitt Romney - 26.4%
Ron Paul - 7%
Rick Perry - 5.4%
Michele Bachmann - 5.3%

It's now a three-candidate race, although at this point I would not bet against Mitt Romney getting the nomination.  I would also point out that not in a single state does Rick Santorum appear in the top five.  Hopefully after he comes in sixth in Iowa, he drops out.  In fact, whoever finishes fifth in Iowa between Perry and Bachmann should drop out too.  Huntsman should stay in until New Hampshire, but if he can't crack the top three there, time for him to go too.

Newt Gingrich Wants to Be the First US Dictator

How else can you explain his motives when he says stuff like this?  Isn't this something Hugo Chavez would do?

Fox News Iowa Debate

Fox doesn't have a three-minute Michael Bay trailer for the upcoming debate. Must've learned from CNN's overkill.

First question to Newt Gingrich by Bret Baier. Republicans say you're smart, a big thinker, but worry deeply about your electability, saying Mitt Romney is the safer choice. Newt compares himself to Reagan. Baier then brings up how Mitt called him an "unreliable" conservative. Newt then touts his record for 30 years of conservatism, balanced budgets, got Republicans to majority for first time in 40 years. [Single-handedly!]

Megyn Kelly then asks Ron Paul how he could possibly win the nomination and will he pledge tonight to not run as third party. Paul says just about anyone on stage would be better than Obama. She then asks Rick Santorum why he's "failed to catch fire" with voters. "Well, we hope to catch fire with voters in Iowa..." and then he spins off to his usual talking points.

Chris Wallace says "many of our viewers" say they're supporting Newt over you (Mitt Romney) because he's tougher; what say you? Mitt talks about how government doesn't create jobs; the private sector does. I know from my work in the private sector, from my successes and failures, how to make this economy work.

Wallace then asks Michelle Bachmann about the perception that she's too conservative. She touts her across-the-board appeal.

Neil Cavuto asks Rick Perry about his debate skills. Rick Perry says he's having fun and he can't wait to debate Obama; he'll show up early! He then compares himself to Tim Tebow. I'm not kidding.

Cavuto then almost sarcastically asks Jon Huntsman about why he won't sign the tax pledge. Huntsman says he won't sign any silly pledges, and he won't attend a Donald Trump debate. He then pauses whith any eyebrow like he expected to get a pop from the crowd but it only brings polite applause. He soldiers on about the trust deficit in this country, says we're getting screwed as Americans, we need term limits and to stop Congress from filing on out and lobbying.

The problem with these debates is most of the answers are the same. If you missed the first twelve, they want to make sure you get to hear their talking point this time, goldarnit!

Baier then gives each candidate 30 seconds to answer: how would you answer possible govt shutdown?

Santorum - Do what leaders do, tell a narrative, we come together to solve problems. People voted for Obama in 2008 because they believed in him. Americans need a president who believes in them. [Good line.]

Perry - We can't have an on-the-job training president. I am appalled Congress came up with a super-committee. (Yeah, Republicans and Democrats came up with that gem, Rick...)

Romney - We need more than 30 seconds. What is leadership? I was governor of state with 85% Democrats. To get anything done, I had to get respect of Speaker. We need to have leader who knows how to lead. I've had four different leadership posts.

Gingrich - Leadership is key. When you have a "Saul Alinksy radical" acting as "Campaigner-in-Chief" the Constitution can't work under those conditions. I worked with Bill Clinton to get things done.

Paul - Two factions in DC. One wants warfare, one wants welfare. Get each to cut some so the other will cut some.

Bachmann - I would have called all 535 Congressmen to come in and sit down during debt crisis. "No new taxes!"

Huntsman - Touts his flat tax passing in Utah and how he almost got 80% of the vote in his re-election bid. (Yes, he was a popular governor.)

Commercials!

Chris Wallace asks Mitt about Newt's comment that Mitt should give his millions back from the companies he bankrupted.

Romney - It's a great opportunity for us, becuz Obama will use the same attack tactic. Yes, some failed, but if you look at all the businesses we worked with, more of them succeeded. In the real world, some things don't work. I've learned the lessons.

Chris then asks Newt about his $1.6 million from Freddie Mac. Newt says he actually asked for more regulation, said he was a private citizen, contrasts it with Chris Dodd getting sweetheart deals from Countrywide.

Paul - He has a different definition of the "private sector" than I have. [BAM!] Paul sides with Mitt. Says colluding of big government and big business leads to fascism. [Don't oversell it!]

Newt - Talk to people at credit unions; there are some good govt-sponsored programs. Medicare, Medicaid. "I did no lobbying of any kind for any organization." [WHAT?!?!]

Bachmann - We know he cashed paychecks from Freddie Mac, and I am shocked listening to him, defending Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, big difference between them and credit unions. The speaker had his hand out for $1.6 million and scammed senior members of Congress to keep the scam going. [BAM!]

Newt - What she just said is factually not true. I never lobbied in any way.

Bachmann - PolitiFact said everything I said was true. You took $1.6 million; you don't need to be in the technical definition of lobbying to be influence-peddling. It's shocking.

Newt - My policy is to break up Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. I never once changed my position becuz of payment. I only chose to work with people whose values I shared.

Cavuto asks Newt about Paul Ryan's budget plan, calling it "right-wing social enineering." Newt says we need to communicate to the American people, says he liked Mitt's adjustments to the Ryan plan. Cavuto asks if Romney would like to respond to that compliment.

Romney says "Thank you" and goes on to talk about our natl balance sheet, commends Wyden/Ryan for coming together.

Cavuto calls out Paul on putting in money for his own district in natl budgets. Paul says your question should also point out I've never voted for an earmark. I look at it like tax deductions. If they're there, sure I'll apply for them, but as president I'd want to get rid of them. This whole principle of budgeting is mixed up. Cavuto talks over Paul's applause to say you're trying to have your cake and eating it too. Paul says if everyone did what I did, there'd be no earmarks and the budget would be balanced.

Cavuto turns to Perry, quotes how he vetoed bills and kept spending under control, but according to an Austin paper, he was guilty of doing what he campaigned against? First of all, don't believe everything you read in the Austin paper [noticeable chill], and then goes back to Newt, says we need to overhaul Washington DC, and the idea that Newt can't tell the difference between lobbying and advising is telling, says we need a part-time Congress. 140 days every other year. (Applause.)

Cavuto turns to Huntsman. How would you respond to China's "childish" move of putting tariffs on American SUVs and luxury vehicles? Well, the problem's all over. It's part North Korea, part Iran, part Burma, etc. etc. Invite some Chinese dissdents to the embassy. We need shared values infused into the relationship. That's democracy, human rights, tolerance to religion, and so much more.

Cavuto asks Santorum if he'd support tax holiday. Yeah, we need to get our taxes down. I promise to repeal every single ObamaCare regulation.

Romney brings up Solyndra. Let markets guide the economy. I think manufacturing will come back, like Rick S. talks about. We have extraordinary energy potential in this country. Our president thinks this country is in decline. It is if he's president. It won't be if I'm president. (Big applause.)

Megyn Kelly questions Newt about wanting to subpoena judges for decisions they make. Does that ruin checks and balances. "The courts have become grotesquely dictatorial." [Your mission: use that phrase in casual conversation in the next 24 hours. Go!] They're "frankly arrogant" in their misreading of the American people. Just like Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln and FDR, I will take on the judiciary if it didn't restrict itself from what it was doing. Yes, he's compared himself to five presidents so far.

Kelly asks Bachmann about activist courts. [I notice at this point something looks different about Megyn Kelly. Hair? Make-up? Not sure.]

Bachmann says the Congress and the President need to take their authority back from the court system. We need to take the Constitution back. I'd only appoint judges who believe in the original intent of the Constitution. Paul says Congress can impeach, but I'd really question subpoenas against judges. Yes, this can be frustrating, but if you say you're going to get rid of courts becuz they didn't rule a way you like, that's a huge can of worms. Subpoenas against judges harms checks and balances.

Kelly then questions why Mitt appointed so many judges who were Democrats or independents. Mitt says he doesn't appoint judges, he nominates them. But he points out one of the most important jobs of the President is to appoint Supreme Court justices. he sides with Paul on questioning Congress subpoena judges, "becuz the only thing more screwed up than justices is Congress." (laughs from audience). We don't call it "we the judges" we call it "we the people." We can impeach, we can pass amendments. We have the ability to reign in activist judges.

Santorum - "I'm the only one on this panel that did it" referring to reigning in activist judges. Says his favorite current Supreme Court judge is Thomas.

Perry - Wants term limits on Supreme Court justices, these "unaccountable legislators in robes." Likes Alito, Roberts, Thomas. Pick one. kelly says "Would you pick one please?"

Romney - Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Scalia.

Newt - Agrees with Romney's list.

Paul - from my view they're all good and they're all bad. Our country split freedom up into two pieces - personal and economic. The judges and Congress thinks it's two issues.

Bachmann - Scalia tops my list. Also Roberts, Thomas, Alito.

Huntsman - I'm optimistic about this country becuz of the rule of law. Governors have experience selecting judges. I like Roberts and Alito.

Commercials!

Paul - My Iranian policy would be much better. There's no UN evidence of Iran getting a weapon. I fear another Iraq coming. War propaganda. I fear we'll get a prez who overreacts and bombs Iran. Even Israel says it wouldn't make any sense taking them out becuz they might have a weapon. What did we do with Libya? We talked them out of their nuclear weapon, and then we killed him. Baier pushes back. Paul says your question seems to be "When are we going to bomb Iran?"

Santorum says Iran is ruled by a radical theocracy, mutual assured destruction worked on the USSR, but Iran wants martyrdom. Their objective is to create a calamity; it's what their theology teaches. They hate us becuz of who we are and what we believe. We should be working with Israel right now in working on taking out Iran's facilities.

Baier asks Romney about how Obama asked Iran for our drone back. (Laughs from audience.) Mitt - "Timidity invites aggression from other people." Our foreign policy based on "pretty please"? (Chuckles from audience.) America has to lead the free world, and the free world has to lead the entire world. The right course for America is to strengthen our country, our values, our families, and our military.

Bachmann - Obama was given on a silver platter victory in Iraq, and he's chosen intentionally to lose the peace. "With all due respect" to Paul, I've never heard a more dangerous natl security answer . (Cheers and boos.) Iran will use a nuclear weapon to wipe Israel off the map. Their mission is to spread jihad across the world.

Paul - To say all Muslims are the same is dangerous. They don't want to kill us becuz of who we are; they want us to stop bombing them. Why do you want another war? Carelessly flouting.

Bachmann - Careless underreacting to let a madman to get a nuclear weapon. IEIA report says they're months away from getting a weapon.

Paul - That's not true. If you think today's a dangerous world, think of when I was drafted in 1962. Kennedy and Khruschev talked without nuclear war. This endless attitude of going to war everywhere.

Baier asks if Newt would leave the UN. No, but we could reduce our reliance on it. We have every obligation to tell the truth on how corrupt the UN bureaucracy is.

Huntsman - The UN serves a useful purpose in peacekeeping and some humanitarian work, but I hate the anti-Americanism, the anti-Israel sentiments. First, we need a new foreign policy. We're still trapped in the Cold War mentality. Our core here is weak. Our economy is broken. Second, (ding!) Baier: You're out of time. Huntsman makes his second point anyway. baier dings him again.

Perry - I've called for a no-fly zone over Syria. They're Iran's partner, they connected at the hip. This administration has badly bungled the Middle East. He led from behind in Libya. he was totally weak with Iran in asking for our drone back.

Cavuto asks Newt about Obama's opposition to the Keystone pipeline. Newt says I'm accused of using language that's too strong, so I've been standing here editing. (laughs). the Canadian PM has said if you don't want to create this pipeline, I'll put it straight west through Vancouver and ship it to China. I'm using mild words here. It's "utterly irrational" for Obama to kill American jobs and reduce our access to energy. It makes no sense to any rational American. (applause) Cavuto: "No offense, sir, but you didn't answer my question." Attach it to the middle-class tax-cut. We're not backing down when we're right and you're totally wrong.

Huntsman - There will always be a balancing act. We need to fuel our future. We need to get rid of our heroin-like addiction to imported oil. We need to disrupt the oil monopoly. We need a president who understands the delicate balance. [Felt like he danced aroudn that one.]

Bachmann - Obama's entire calculus is on re-election. The radical environmentalists threatened to not support him if he passed Keystone. As prez, I would've put Keystone online immediately.

Cavuto points out Perry gave $7 billion in tax savings to oil. Perry points out this is the anniversary of the signing of the Bill of Rights. I like the Tenth. If a state wants to put tax policies in place that makes them more competitive, that's their right. Giovt in DC shouldn't pick winners and losers. (But he's arguing that governors should be able to pick winners and losers.)

Commercials!

Megyn Kelly asks Perry about Operation Fast & Furious. So far no evidence Atty. Gnrl. Eric Holder knew about it. Are you politicizing this? Perry says if there's an operation like Fast & Furious and the atty general didn't know about it, he should re-sign immediately. I've been dealing with border issues for 11 years.

Santorum - Agrees Holder needs to go. There are jihadist trainign camps in central and south America, and we know they're planning attacks on the US. Obama has embraced scoundrels in central and south America, like Chavez and Ortega.

Kelly asks Romney about the 11 million illegals he said need to go to their country of origin first before becoming US citizens, but he also said we're not going to just round em up and ship em out. How does that work? We'll give them ID cards for those who come here legally. When they apply for a job, they need to show that job. newt's suggested something similar. You say to illegals you can't work here. You need to get in line.

Newt - We mostly agree on that, but someone whp's been here 25 years should get some consideration. I'd drop the fed lawsuits against states.

Huntsman - We don't need to pander. Pro-growth, strong values. these appeal to hispanics/Latinos. but look at the numbers of those coming across the borders. There's nothing to come for! We've got to secure the borders, of course, but let's not lose sight of the fact that legal immigration is pro-growth for this country. Remake our visa system. This is an economic development opportunity.

Chris Wallace, whom Joe Scarborough said loathes Mitt Romney, asks this question: "You've changed your position in the last 10 years on abortion, on gay rights, on guns, you say keeping an open mind is a strength, but some of your critics say every one of these moves is to your political advantage, when you were running in MA you took liberal positions, now running for president you take conservative positions. Is that principle or is it just politics?" [Wow, Chris, really?] Mitt takes exception to your list there. I've been the same on gay rights. On abortion I changed my mind. I studied the issue. I've learned over time, like Reagan and HW Bush, where I've been wrong, I've changed my mind. I've always been for the 2nd Amendment. Chris in gotcha question mode lists off positions on gay rights, abortion, gun rights. Romney defends each position, and by the end you can tell he's a little upset with Chris. [Shorter Mitt: I'm going to be the nominee, Chris, and you can't stop me.]

Chris then asks Santorum if he's persuaded. [Eye roll.] Might as well have said, "Rick, attack Romney for me." Santorum points out only the governor and legislature can change marriage law. Mitt had choice to go with "the court or the Constitution." He chose the court. He personally handed out gay-marriage licenses. We're not talking about discrimination, we're talking about securing values.

Mitt - That's a very novel interpretation of what the MA Supreme Court did. I fought to put in a amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman. I've been a champion of protecting traditional marriage.

Chris Wallace asks Bachmann about abortion. She says the GOP can't get the issue of life wrong. Newt said he'd campaign for Republicans who were for partial-birth abortion.

Newt - Sometimes Bachmann gets her facts wrong.

Bachmann - I think it's outrageous to say I don't have my facts right when as a matter of fact, I do. I am a serious candidate for the presidency. [If you have to say it...] Gingrich said it.

Newt - I don't see how you're going to govern if you're going to run around trying to figure out who to purge.

Baier mentions 11th Commendment from Reagan while some audience member complains he hasn't asked about the Federal Reserve.

Santorum - We have a responsibility to vet the candidates. Let's find out who can stand up.

Perry - There was an NFL player said if you're not getting your tail kicked, you're not playing at a high-enough level. I'd like to thank these folks on stage for letting me play at a high-enough level.

Romney - We can take it. Obama's going to have a billion dollars to go after me or whoever the nominee is.

Gingrich - If you look at my website, my debates, I go to the American people with big ideas. These six are friends of mine, and all would be a better president than Obama.

Paul - The media has a responsibility and we have a responsibility. We have to get this information out. There are some things below the belt. I don't like taking things out of context. If we disagree on an issue, we should expose it.

Bachmann - It's the same with Reagan. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Unquestionably we're worse off under Obama.

Huntsman - I actually worked for Reagan. Debate is good. It must be respectful and vigorous. It will lead to trust. This type of debate will elevate the nominee.

And that's a wrap!

So.... how'd they do...

　

　

7. RICK SANTORUM - He had one good line but otherwise was irrelevant on the stage. Most of his questions were about other candidates. Rick can boast he's been to every county in Iowa, but it's never he's stuck in sixth, in front of the only candidate who's said he's not competing in Iowa and only comes for the debates.

6. JON HUNTSMAN - He may be in Iowa, but he's debating to show New Hampshire he's their guy. I don't think he did enough to stand out. He needed to increase momentum, and this felt like a wheel-spinning performance, repeating many of the thigns he's said before, even danced around a couple questions. And he's not setting himself up for 2016. If the GOP nominee loses, 2016 will have Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Marco Rubio, John Thune, Jeb Bush, etc., plenty of options.

5. RICK PERRY - Relaxed, friendly, happy to be there, lucky to be there. Why is he still here? I thought the Tim Tebow reference was goofy, but maybe some evangelicals heard it and went "One of us! One of us!" Was giddy in attacking Congress and the Supreme Court, checks and balances be damned.

4. NEWT GINGRICH - Tonight was an effective microcosm example of why Newt's debate skills are good enough that he could win the GOP nomination but then get eviscerated in the general. The crowd was most enthusiastic when he attacked the judiciary, talking about subpoenas for judges, banning courts, etc. Good grief, really? But he was weakest in defending his Freddy Mac connections. His arguing over what is technically "lobbying" felt like Clinton's dance on the head of a pin over "is."

3. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Went after Newt Gingrich the strongest, made points that needed to be made. Stoof up for herself when Newt appeared dismissive. Also acted as surrogate for the anti-Ron Paul contingent when talking about how dangerous Iran is. Probably her best performance in months. Maybe she'll take fourth in Iowa after all.

2. RON PAUL - He can still win Iowa. His Iran answers didn't play to the crowd, and I know many conservatives who like his domestic ideas but loathe his foreign ones. He got in the best slam of the night on Newt.

1. MITT ROMNEY - Mitt did just what he needed to do. He was magnanimous with Newt, letting the lesser-tier candidates do the attacking. He defended his positions well and kept the focus on Obama. He stood up to Chris Wallace, and not in the Newt way ("media malpractice!"). Mitt is demonstrating he does have the strength to stand up for himself in a debate but kill with kindness. Maybe he won't win Iowa, but this may be the step-stool to a New Hampshire landslide.

(Until the next debate. Who am I kidding?)

GOP InTrade Pre-Debate

From InTrade.com:

December 5
1. - Mitt Romney - 47%
2. - Newt Gingrich - 30.2%
3. - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
4. - Ron Paul - 7%
5. - Rick Perry - 2.8%
6. - Michele Bachmann - 2.5%
7. - Rick Santorum - 1.4%

December 15 (pre-debate)
1. - Mitt Romney - 58.3%
2. - Newt Gingrich - 17.4%
3. - Ron Paul - 8.2%
4. - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
5. - Rick Perry - 3.6%
6. - Michelle Bachmann - 1.7%
7. - Rick Santorum - 1.1%

UPDATE:
December 15 (post-debate)
1. - Mitt Romney - 61.3%
2. - Newt Gingrich - 17%
3. - Ron Paul - 7.5%
4. - Jon Huntsman - 6.1%
5. - Rick Perry - 3.6%
6. - Michelle Bachmann - 1.6%
7. - Rick Santorum - .7%

Newt actually came within 11 points last week, but now the traders are going back to Romney.  Meanwhile Paul's jumped Huntsman, and it looks very likely Paul could win Iowa.

For the debate I would hope Paul's able to address Pres. Obama and Congress passing a law that makes it legal to indefinite detain U.S. citizens.

Huntsman-Gingrich Lincoln-Douglas "Debate"

- Jon Huntsman called Pakistan the second candidate for failed-nation state, behind North Korea, and says our relationship with India is key for that region.

- Newt Gingrich said we rely too much on foreign countries for our international intelligence.

- Gingrich said if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, it's time for a regime change.

- Huntsman said Iran will be the transcendant threat for this decade, not Afghanistan or Iraq. Said we missed an opportunity during the Persian Spring of 2009.

- Huntsman can't abide a nuclear Iran either. Says you'd have to expect Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt to get their own nuclear weapons shortly thereafter.

It wasn't really a debate; it was more of a co-lecture, a discussion that dealt mostly with foreign policy where they agreed on 90% of what they talked about. Overall, Jon Huntsman sounded very presidential, and Newt Gingrich continued to display his fondness of polysyllabic adverbs. But Gingrich wasn't out to beat Huntsman, he was out to elevate him so he'll take more votes from Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.

ABC GOP Debate in Iowa

For some reason, our local ABC station showed the first seven minutes of some Primetime America special, and then suddenly it went live to the debate.

RON PAUL - "-you can't get back to economic growth again." He's talking about debt and TARP, but I'm going to have to play catch-up here. He concludes he's going to cut one trillion from the budget next year.

RICK PERRY - I'm going to do a flat tax of 20%. Talks about drawing a diagram of how we got into this problem and says there's a direct line between Washington and Wall Street, mentions the $7 trillion we didn't know the Fed was giving the banks.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - Plugs Cain by saying we can have a "Win, win, win" plan. Wants to make the bottom 47% pay taxes.

RICK SANTORUM - Starts by showing off the names of building and cities he's visited in Iowa, and he ties it to his plan to revitalize manufacturing.

Diane Sawyer points out Mitt Romney's the only one who committed to a number on how many jobs he's create during his first term. Anyone else want to do that? Santorum says we can't really give a number, all we can do is lower taxes, less regulation, a litigation environment that makes us competitive, etc., etc.

What the heck happened to Diane's left eye?

Question on the payroll tax which will go up in 2012. Bachmann says they never should have cut it, she fought against it. (Whiplash...) Romney says he doesn't want to raise taxes on the middle class, but let's recognize it's just a band-aid.

Split-screen with Perry, and Perry's looking at Romney like he's learning something. "Wow, that's how the economy works?"

Santorum wants the payroll tax cut to expire because it'll pay for Social Security. Paul says quitting the spending will save Social Security, then complains about our embassy in Baghdad as something that can be cut.

George Stephanopoulos beings up the question of electability. He quotes Newt saying he was the most electable, which Mitt laughs at, then he goes off on his private-sector experience. Says there are many areas where they disagree, and George asks him to name some. There's about five seconds where Mitt teeters on the tightrope, but then he's able to rattle off he disagrees with Newt's desire for a lunar colony (brilliant!), child labor laws (brilliant!), and he has some more, but that was effective. Newt's response?

"The only reason you didn't become a career politician is becuz you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994." Some cheers and boos from the audience. Newt says he grew up in a generation when NASA was real, when young Americans could dream, he wants the space program to be privatized and revitalized. On to child labor: let the poor kids work part-time; they could use the money. Rips on greedy NY janitor union.

Mitt says it's true he may have been a career politician if he'd beat Ted Kennedy. He also says if he'd gone to the NFL like he wanted to as a kid, he'd have been a career football star. (Good line.) Says losing to Teddy was great becuz it gave him mroe years of prvate-sector experience.

George brings up Ron Paul's "serial hypocrisy" ad. Paul rattles off single-payer system for health care, his TARP support, his money he got from Freddie Mac. Says anyone would have trouble competing with him on consistency.

Newt says you said the economy was due to artificial interest rates, and I'm with you on auditing the Fed. As to Freddie Mac, I wasn't a lobbyist. I was advising them, I was in the private sector, which earns a laugh.

Bachmann complains about Newt's office being on K Street, says he's the epitome of establishment. She says she's the real constitutional conservative. She's 55 years old; she's spent 50 years in the real world as a businesswoman. (um...) She slams Newt and Mitt for individual mandate. She calls them Newt Romney six times.

Newt says in a lot of ways, what she said isn't true. She says Newt Romney has too much in common with Obama; she's the polar opposite of Obama on everything. Mitt says I know Newt Gingrich, Newt Gingrich is a friend of mine, and I promise you we are not clones. Mitt invokes the Tenth Amendment in how he'd deal with ObamaCare.

Perry says Michelle hit the nail on the head, says Mitt and Newt were for individual mandates. Perry says he can stand on the stage and call ObamaCare an abomination. Mitt demonstrates his masterful ability of counterpunching. By the time he's done explaining the differences between what Massachusetts did and what ObamaCare does, Perry looks like he regrets picking the fight, and THEN Mitt rubs it in Rick's face he had a "mandate" in Texas for all 12-year-olds to get vaccines. Rick says he read Mitt's book and he was for a mandate. Mitt bets $10,000 that is not in there, and Rick says he's not a betting man. Mitt says "Well, there you go."

You can tell Mitt likes Newt more than Rick.

Bachmann says do we really believe either of these two will repeal ObamaCare? ("Yep!" "Yep!") Laughs from audience. Santorum says he agrees with Bachmann, but she fought and lost. He fought and won when he was in Congress. Bachmann says she'll make sure she gets 13 more Republican senators elected.

Commercials! One of them is Fred Thompson for reverse mortgages. Rick Perry will be doing that commercial in four years.

George S. asks if marital fidelity should be considered. Perry says he made a vow to his wife and a vow to God. Says if you cheat on your wife, you'll cheat on your business partner. Hammers Newt on it w/o directly saying Newt. Santorum says it's not a disqualifier but it should be a factor. Paul says you shouldn't have to talk about it, been married for 54 years, but if marriage vows are important, what about your oath of office?

George asks why Mitt's first Iowa ad was on his family, and Mitt said it was in response to an Obama PAC ad. Mentions he has 16 grandkids. Bachmann said the founders only looked at "what's the measure of a man?" Or woman in my case. Very interesting that Newt's the last one allowed to answer this.

Newt says it's a real issue. "People have to render judgment." But he says he's gone to God for forgiveness, but now I'm a 68-year-old grandfather.

Diane wants to talk about immigration but spends 20 seconds stipulating that all the candidates agree they need to secure the borders. Newt wants to make it easier to learn English. Then he and Diane quibble over how long a person's been here, if they can get around illegal immigration laws.

Why isn't Jake Tapper help moderate this?

Mitt blasts amnesty in all forms; no favoritism.

Perry's next. (My wife sits next to me, sees Perry and says, "Oh, he hasn't dropped out yet?") Diane asks him about illegal immigrants in our military. Perry says securing the border is the key. Perry says we already have enough immigration laws on the books, says we need to simply enforce.

Paul gets a question about Palestine. He tows his non-intervention line, says we need to stop being the policemen of the world. Newt says Palestine launches rockets into Israel every day but Obama's trying to pressure them into peace. Newt sounds pro-World War III, the US and Israel vs. the world. Mitt sounds about the same, stand with the Israeli people! Newt and Mitt quibble here about speaking for Israel. Mitt underlines how Newt can say incendiary things. Newt compares himself to Reagan, when Reagan told the truth, calling the USSR the evil empire.

Bachmann first visited Israel in 1974. Tells a rather longwinded story about how Palestinian schools teach their kids that Jews are swine and descend from apes. Santorum says you have to speak the truth but with prudence. [We're now interrupted by five seconds of a Papa John's commercial.]

Perry calls it a minor issue, then blasts Obama for taking the worst of the two choices, actually he had three. Says the president is the problem, not what Newt said. (During applause Perry seems to ask Santorum about the difference between two and three.)

Commercials!

Perry gets to talk about his upbringing. Grew up dirt poor. Says as a "27-year-old boy... well, I was a grown man by then."

Romney says yeah, I didn't grow up poor, but my dad grew up poor and he made sure we understood the value of money.

Paul says his family was poor but he didn't know it. Says he worked his way through college.

Santorum says he was blessed to have a mother and a father, had a sense of security, uses it to segue-way to how the American family is breaking down.

Bachmann takes on the bank bailouts and TARP, then mentions she was born in Iowa, but her parents got divorced, so she gets the plight of single moms.

George S. wants to bring this back to the federal mandate for health care. Mitt says let states do what they want to do. Newt says we need to "fundamentally" change health care, it's getting more and more expensive.

Diane S. goes on about health-care, and I should mention that anytime Daine Sawyer speaks, she seems to think this is all about her. George S. is doing much better at just getting the questions out.

Paul says we need to stop looking to government to take care of everything.

Perry says people are sick of Washington DC, says we should go to part-time Congress, cut their pay in half. (How would he actually accomplish that?)

Commercials!

George's last question: what have you learned from one of your opponents?

Santorum said he listened to Newt's tapes and it inspired him. (Wife points out here there's something Nicolas Cage-y about Santorum.) Points out all the elections he's won and leaves out the big one he's lost.

Perry said Paul intrigued him about auditing the Federal Reserve, but he doesn't miss this opportunity to personally address some Iowa poiliticians.

Romney says each displays leadership qualities but notices he only sees the Ron Paul signs when they come to these.

Gingrich says he's inspired by the current Iowa governor. He also plugs Rick Perry's tenth amendment views and Rick Santorum's courage on Iran. (Name two candidates Newt's not worried about surging.)

Paul says never give up on your opposition and he's delighted Perry's come around on the Fed. (Big laughs.)

Bachmann panders for Herman Cain votes.

Debate's over. Cut to Jake Tapper and company pointing out that Mitt was right but acting like Victorian women clutching their pearls that Mitt would dare bet $10,000 that he's right. "We should point out that $10,000 is 3 months salary for the average Iowan." Are you freaking kidding me? Perry's a millionaire. He can handle it. And he was WRONG! That's the point. Matt Dowd says Mitt lost and Newt won, and Michelle Bachmann drew blood. Leslie Sanchez wisely points out it's not a winner for Bachmann to keep bringing up Cain.

Okay, enough of them. What did I see?

7. DIANE SAWYER - Droned on and on, taking other people's airtime.

6. RICK PERRY - I didn't see anything that would make Iowans turn back to him.

5. RICK SANTORUM - Didn't whine about he doesn't get questions. So, there's that.

4. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Her Newt Romney moniker was cute, but yeah, why is she fighting so hard for Cain voters?

3. MITT ROMNEY - I thought he did pretty good, but they're going to make a big deal out of that $10,000 bet. The problem with these debates is most people didn't watch it, they just watch what the news says about it, and so for that, he never should have offered the bet. I thought his best dig at Newt when he referred to himself as not being a bomb-thrower, figuratively or literally.

2. NEWT GINGRICH - When other candidates have been in the NotRomney front-runner slot, they've crumbled. Rick Perry, Herman Cain... and while the potential was there to score points, most of them didn't seem to sink into the room. It's obscene that Newt keeps insisting he wasn't a lobbyist but when you look at what he did for Freddie Mac and ethanol and the health-care industry... I can't help but notice the word "ethanol" never came up. But when the adultery question came up, Santorum oversold and by the time it got to Newt, he'd won the moment.

1. RON PAUL - Jovial, predictable. Still could easily steal Iowa.

Rick Perry commits political suicide

GOP InTrade Watch - 12/5/11

As of December 5.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 47%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 30.2%
3. (3) - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
4. (4) - Ron Paul - 7%
5. (6) - Rick Perry - 2.8%
6. (7) - Michele Bachmann - 2.5%
7. (8) - Rick Santorum - 1.4%
8. (5) - Herman Cain - .2%

The moneychangers still like Romney but not as much as they used to.

The field's changed since Cain dropped out. Romney has been severely damaged by Gingrich's ascent. Romney's at his lowest since October 1. Gingrich was actually up to 37% a few days ago, but his enemies are starting to get louder (George Will disembowelled him on ABC's This Week). Huntsman and Paul are hovering. Paul's waiting for an Iowa boost, and Huntsman for a New Hampshire boost if Newt would just hurry up and implode already.

In watching bits and pieces of Fox News the past week or so, and hearing parts of Rush driving to and from work, it seems they really don't want Romney, but they're not thrilled about Gingrich either. I think Rush wants Perry or Bachmann or Santorum to get the nomination, but Gingrich would be his fourth choice. And Fox News is about the same.

Heck, the other day Glenn Beck said if one of these candidates could turn out to be the next George Washington, it'd be Rick Santorum. #facepalm

One Sunday talking-head (can't remember who at this moment) said, in defending Perry, that we put too much emphasis on the debates.  I don't think so.  Voters are very cognizant of the importance of debates.  It can underline strengths and expose weaknesses.  (Look at how poorly Perry and Cain have done at foreign policy questions.)  They remember the Barack Obama / John McCain debates of 2008. Obama was fresh, new and energized; McCain was the old grump who wouldn't even look at "that one."  They remember the George W. Bush / Al Gore debates of 2000, too.  Bush was the guy who could relate to folks; Gore was the robot who couldn't stop sighing into the microphone.

So glad we're finally down to seven candidates.  Bring on the next debate!

Huckabee Debate Forum

HUCKABEE

Wow, looks like Huck's put back on all the weight he lost when running for president in 2008. Huck will be the moderator, and aiding in the questions will be three ravenously ambitious state attorneys general.

I honestly love the explanation and the set-up of this format. Looking forward to how it will go, all snarking aside. Also believe it was a mistake for Jon Huntsman to skip this. First each questioner gets a chance to crow.

Scott Pruitt - OK - Lets us know he doesn't believe Obama respects the principles of the Constitution.

Pam Bondi - FL - Obama's trying to undermine our Constitution. What will fix our problems is a conservative Republican who shares our values.

Ken Cuccinelli - VA - Also suing the fed govt "to protect our Constitution" aka ObamaCare.

NEWT GINGRICH

7:05 - Pam starts, big grin, says his "stand on immigration could lead to more illegal immigration." Advocates jury of peers on illegal immigrants (?), wants to implement secure borders and guest-worker program. Pam: "MY concern is putting friends and neighbors in charge of judging." (Man, are they going to insert themselves into the conversation like this all night?) Newt points out the founders supported juries over judges because they didn't always trust judges.

7:08 - Ken: "Why should Constitutional conservatives LIKE ME trust you... individual mandate, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae." Newt says Heritage came up with individual mandate as a way of blocking HillaryCare, but then he speeds to say "sitting on a couch with Nancy Pelosi is the dumbest thing I've done in years." I testified against Al Gore on climate change. As Speaker we balanced the budget, did welfare reform, "vigorous" tenth Amendment defender.

7:10 - Okay, Ken refers to himself again in the follow-up question. I was worried a Donald Trump debate might be self-aggrandizing but I'm already fed up with these attorneys and one of them hasn't even had his turn. Ken, Pam, this is not about you. "How will you stick to shrinking the fed govt?" I've done it in Reagan's Congress and as Speaker... 'But how will you as President?" I'm giving you my experience to show I can be trusted. The Tea Party needs to understand you can't get everything you want by just appointing good people, it takes a lot of work.

Commercials! For Dragon Tattoo movie, Verizon, Geico, Advil, Sam Adams beer, Salvation Army.

7:14 - Scott: "Obama seems to think DC has all the answers to our natl problems. Can you name some natl problems that neither the president nor Congress should solve?" Education, most of DC bureaucracy should be dismantled, Medicaid should go back to the states, replace the EPA with something that has "economic rationality." Tenth Amendment talks about the states and the citizens. Shrinking DC depts requires growing local citizenship. (Scott didn't refer to himself once. Nice.)

7:16 - Newt slams a judge in San Antonio who bans the use of the words "God, invocation, benediction" at a graduation ceremony and said if his order was violated, the superintendent would be thrown in jail.

7:17 - Pam: "Is it wrong for the feds to intrude on states' authority?" (Softball alert!) Nothing wrong with a prez advocating change, but he can't then say the fed govt will be in charge of it. Then defends sitting with Nancy, saying he wants conservative environmentalism.

7:19 - Ken: "favorite founding father?" George Washington, then rattles off a bunch of reasons why.

Commercials! Infiniti, GE, Tempurpedic beds.

RICK SANTORUM

7:22 - Pam: "You said Abe Lincoln ran over our civil rights during the Civil War. Are there any elements of the Patriot Act that run over our civil rights?" (Great question, Pam. You're forgiven.) No! "Why?" I voted for the Patriot Act, most of the changes were consistent with how we deal with drug kingpins and gangsters. "How did Abe run over our civil rights?" Suspended habeus corpus, but he did what he had to do.

7:24 - Scott: "Strengthening the family is important to you and it's important TO US. is that a proper function with respect to fed govt?" I'm father of seven, family's important to me and America. Fed govt undermines family, look at our welfare programs. We do things to break families apart. We had the marriage tax penalty. There are things Prez can do beyond laws. "Where do the states fit?" Well, I was the author of the Fed Welfare Reform bill, only time we've taken fed program and sent it back to states. We should cut, cap, freeze welfare, send it back to states.

7:27 - Ken: "Since Constitution doesn't have authority to ban abortions..." I support Constitutional amendment to ban abortion, if you will. We need uniform law on values that undergird our country. I fought for marriage amendment; we can't have 50 definitions of marriage in this country.

7:29 - Pam: "In FL, I'VE had to sue the EPA for devastating water standards. What principles would you follow in instituting "any" environmental regulation. Endangered species act is overly broad. This is what the left is best at. "What would you do?" I won't sign a straight re-authorization; I'll make Congress go back and fix the overly broad wording.

7:31 - Scott: "Why do you think the founders created separation of state and federal powers?" (Seriously?) They did it to protect the rights of the states and the citizens.

7:32 - Ken: "Constitutionally why is the president wrong to not defend the Defense of Marriage Act signed by Pres. Clinton?" I'm happy he isn't, becuz he was throwing the case. "You mean they were rolling over?" They were rolling over. (Objection! Leading the witness!)

7:34 - Pam: "Are the courts the only arbiter of the Constitution?" (Softball alert!) No.

Commercials! Wells Fargo, Lexus, Crestor, 21st Century Insurance.

RICK PERRY

7:37 - Ken: "If elected you said you'd give an executive order to invalidate ObamaCare. What is your authority to invalidate a law passed by Congress?" (Bam!) There's a lot in that bill that gives authority to the departments, so I'd make sure my Health & Human Services secretary shares my philosophy, Medicare needs to go back to the states. "It sounds like you're ready to use an executive order to invalidate the parts you don't agree with." Absolutely. "What is your authority for that?" The executive order gives you that authority. (So the President is a king, Rick?)

7:39 - Pam: "All 3 OF US here represent right-to-work states. Do u favor passing a natl right-to-work law?" The states have the right to do that. I'm a big 10th amendment supporter. States have to compete with each other. Get the fed govt making one-size-fits-all, even if it's something we like. We made Texas a very good place for businessmen & women.

7:41 - Scott: "Illegal immigration costs each state billions of dollars. Should the fed govt have to pay for that?" We send them a bill every year. The real issue is border security. I've been dealing with this for 10 years. Sheriff Joe endorsed me cuz of this. "Would u favor the states being able to sue fed govt for cost of them not enforcing, securing border?" Absolutely, but it'll become a non-issue cuz I'll secure the border.

Commercials! Sea-Bond denture gum, Aleve, Subaru, Neat scanner, Tempurpedic beds.

7:46 - Pam: "If parents and states fail education, does Fed have obligation to intervene?" No. The state legislators will do that. We'll never have that situation happen. We have Fed govt intervening too much. Education of kids is state and local issue. "Would u get rid of fed assistance for school lunch, Pell grants, GI bill?" Yes, well, maybe keep the GI bill. Fed picks winners & losers. (Huh?)

7:48 - Scott: "Which Supreme Court justices do u consider strict constructionists?" (Rick grins at the softball.) Alito and Roberts! We have four liberal legislators in robes on the Court right now. There's no accountability, but I'd like a Constitutional amendment to limit the term of a Supreme Court judge. (ooh, most of the Founders wouldn't agree with that.) "What's more preferable to you: overturn Roe v. Wade and return abortion laws to states, or passing a Human Life Amendment?" I'd do both! Until u get that Constitutional Amendment passed, the states can pass their own abortion laws.

7:50 - Ken: "Any reason labor law has to be dominated by fed govt?" Leave that to the states as well. "Would u be ready to get fed govt out of business of union elections?" Absolutely. "Favorite Founding father?" Madison. Brilliant individual.

7:51 - Huck (hey, Huck's first question!): "Explain to the layman what a strict constructionalist is." Rick then pulls his microphone trying to get his pocket Constitution out, then holds it upside down and says read this and don't try to change it. (How many Constitutional Amendments did he endorse?)

Commercials! Hugo movie, Prudential, US Postal Service, Cymbalta (which might make u suicidal and cause fatal liver problems), AT&T.

MICHELLE BACHMANN

7:56 - Scott: "U've been strong opponent of ObamaCare as WE have been. U said states cannot pass individual mandate. What's your authority for that?" It goes back to our inherant freedoms. Overriding issue is ObamaCare will change face of country forever, cost trillions of dollars, take away our liberty, collapse Medicare, tax-subsidized abortion, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria, etc. Obama ordered every health insurance company in America to cover free the morning-after pill. "WE passed stature to say no one could be forced to buy insurance. Was that unnecessary?" No, u did the right thing. But it is the law of the land right now. It will steamroll every state and make socialized medicine the law of the land.

7:58 - Pam: "U've pledged to deport all 11 million illegal immigrants. That'll cost $135 billion. How would u do it?" There's a $113 billion cost each year to let them stay. We should uphold the law. "What's your plan for executing the plan?" Enforcement by ICE agents; they're not enforcing them now. We have sanctuary cities. "MY fear is that the money will get dumped on MY state." Congress has specific ennumerated power to secure the border; it's their role. Fed govt needs to pay for deportation cost.

8:00 - Ken: "U're for tort reform. Do u support cap on damage amounts?" Yes, absolutely. "Do u support federal rules for how states handle their tort reform?" I can.

Commercials! The Debt on DVD, Geico, UPS, MassMutual, Shriners Hospitals

8:04 - Scott: "Will eliminating Dept of Education be enough to get fed govt out of education?" No, we need full-scale repeal of the burdens and mandates as well as abolish Dept of Education. We didn't have that dept. til the 1970's so we can get by w/o it. "U said you'd get rid of EPA too." We have 50 state EPA's. The fed EPA has become a govt unto themselves. "I AGREE with you, but how would you deal with inter-state environment issues?" They can be negotiated. "U can't negotiate w/o legal foundation. If they don't negotiate, then what?" Good point. But there may be a need for new legislation to deal with these issues, but look at what's happening now. Cap and tax, controlling businesses. "Hey, WE'RE all suing the EPA, so..." Thank you very much!

8:08 - Pam: "Other than Roe v. Wade, what was the worst Supreme Court decision of the last 50 years?" Well, all-time worst was Dred Scott, but int he last 50, there are so many. I'll go with Kelo decision. It was a govt entity taking private property from an individual that would benefit govt in form of revenue and give it to another. Scott: 'What would u do to protect private property?" If a case goes before the court, they need to uphold the Constitution.

8:10 - Pam: "Kelo's one of MY worst too. U support federal Human Life amendment; why not leave to states?" Inalienable rights are given to us by God, not man. Decl. of Independence said we should protect those rights; that includes rights.

Commercials! GE, Lexus (two different commercials that end with loved-one surprised other with a new car with a giant bow on top; must be cool to be rich), Nexium, Samuel Adams beer.

RON PAUL

That tie would have been right at home around Henry Gibson's neck in Nashville (1976).

8:13 - Ken: "What do u think are the 3 primary domestic responsibilities of fed govt?" Protect borders, provide sound currency, enforce Bill of Rights, like property rights, speech and so forth.

8:14 - Scott: "In 1995 WE lost 165 Oklahomans in domestic terrorist attack. Atty general uses tools of Patriot Act to combat domestic terrorism. I TOO share your concerns with privacy but what thoughtful alternative do u have to the Patriot Act?" If your goal is to prevent all crimes and all acts, u destroy all liberty by doing that. If the Patriot Act had been called The Repeal of the Fourth Amendment, it wouldn't have passed, but that's what it did. We have plenty of laws but if u try to pass laws to prevent all crimes, what r u going to do, put a camera in every home? Terrorism is a crime not a war. We use it to justify things. There's nothing in the Constitution authorizing a natl police force. We have 100,000 fed troops carrying guns.

8:18 - This Pam Bondi clearly dislikes Paul. She sneers when asking him what he calls the attack on the Twin Towers. First he calls it an act of violence, then concedes it was a terrorist attack. We need to understand the problems and not just say we need more fed policemen. This is all messed up; we've been told this is all becuz people want to come here and kill us becuz we're free. As long as we keep saying that, we're not going to be any safer.

8:19 - Pam: "Obama has had the audacity to say less regulation means dirtier air, dirtier water. Is that what less fed regulation really means?" (Aw, a nice softball for him after going mean-girl the question before.) No, that's not what it means. If u don't have regulations on the environment or banking, the free market is actually a strict regulator. Drug companies write their own regulations, banking writes their own legislation, they become lobbyists. If u have the market, u have property rights, contract rights. The market took care of Enron, they were tried for fraud and sent to prison. It's up to us to argue the case.

Commercials! Red Lobster, Sea-Bond denture bond (Fox News must think no one under age 65 is watching at this point), Aleve, DirecTV, TrueCar.com.

8:23 - Scott: "You've called Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security unconstitutional, so this must mean you plan to get rid of them." Well, not overnight. You guys slam ObamaCare for having a mandate, but there are all sorts of mandates in medicine and govt programs. We need a transitional program. There's nothing in the Constitution that says to spend one penny on education. But I would preserve some of these programs with the purpose of phasing them out. We're in trouble becuz there's no respect for Constitution. "Why would u vote for budget u consider unconstitutional?" I advocate transition programs, that makes a big difference.

8:25 - Ken: "Please put in order of importance: sovereignty of people, states, fed govt." Well, people and states, and very little for fed govt. none for international govt like UN and NATO for things we do around the world.

8:26 - Scott: "Are there any Amendments to Constitution u believe are mistakes?" What? "Mistakes." Can't quite hear. "Just pick a few." Well, the Prohibition one was terrible, it led to a decade of increased crime, but then we repealed it. The Bill of Rights are amendments and they're great. The others aren't enough for me to get riled up about.

8:27 - Pam: "If you could suggest every American read one book, what would it be?" Excluding religiously oriented? "Could be." Since we're talking about politics and the law, "The Law" by Bastiat would wake them up. It says if you can't do it, the govt can't do it. If u can't steal, u can't let a politician steal.

Commercials! AT&T, Align probiotic, Dodge Ram trucks, Pradaxa (can cause fatal bleeding).

Two different drug commercials where they fine-print the fact that taking their drug could kill you.

MITT ROMNEY

Looking unusually orange.

8:31 - Scott: "U know Oklahoma is a leader in energy; but when they say u're EPA admin won't be much different than Obama's." Well, Mike Leavitt is a friend of mine and he was Bush's EPA admin and the oil and gas people tell me it was a whole lot better under him. I see the EPA eliminating fracking and say this is just their effort to go all solar and wind and raise our costs drastically. "Would u put a stop the fed from interfering with fracking regulation?" Yes, the EPA's trying to get more power. We all like renewables, but renewables alone will not power this economy. EPA is holding down private sector.

8:34 - Ken: "Obama says his health-care was based on yours. What would u say?" I'd say thanks but why didn't u give me a call? I liked my bill overall, but what the prez has done is way beyond what we did. We were trying to take care of the 8% in Mass. uninsured. "What u did affected the entire insurance industry?" Very little for the 92%. In terms of getting down cost of health-care, that's what we should be working toward.

8:36 - Pam: "U supported No Child Left Behind in 08; what role does fed govt have in education policy?" Let me say I continue to support aspects of NCLB. Fed govt has role to stand up to fed teachers unions, prevent cyber-learning, prevent merit-pay. Bush recognized to determine which schools or teachers are fialing, we need to test. Bush stood up to those huge unions. Education should be done by state and locals. But NCLB was Bush's way of standing up to teachers union. "So would u support removing fed pay for school lunches, Pell grants, GI bill?" Some yes, some no. School lunch deals with the poor, those that deal with poor I'll look at one by one, but most I'll send to states to have them deal with it.

8:38 - Scott: "U've said u want to support strict constructionist to Supreme Court. What does that mean to u?" Supreme Court needs to protect the Constitution, not use it as springboard to insert their own ideas. Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia are strict constructionists. I want brilliant constructionists who share my values who have a good track record.

8:39 - Pam: "There are 1000s of illegal immigrants who come into MY state of Florida. Given the fed govt's complete lack of securing border, what should Florida do to protect themselves." States have right to protect their own people. I vetoed in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. I gave ICE power to deal with illegal immigration laws. Fed govt needs to step up.

8:40 - Ken: "Is there any reason labor law has to be dominated by fed govt?" First step is to revamp natl labor relations board if not eliminate all together. My own view states should put in right-to-work laws to allow people to work w/o having to join union. "Is that a maybe?" I wouldn't get rid of all fed labor laws but I would look at them and say as many as I can, turn it back to the states.

Commercials! Expedia, Verizon, Salvation Army, Biotene, UPS.

Closing arguments! One minute each.

ROMNEY - Historically this has been a merit-based society, which has made us strong. Obama wants to see an entitlement-based society, where they spread rewards around, and the most go to those who do the spreading the govt. I've worked in private sector, I know how this economy works.

PERRY - I hope everyone gives me a second look. We'll put a part-time Congress in place. Look at my plan, and give me another chance.

PAUL - We've turned the Constitution on its head, our congresses, our courts, our executive have taken too much power, and the states suffer the consequences. We've forgotten the principle of nullification. The states have to be able to nullify this! (Wow,

GINGRICH - We've seen some very intelligent people to ask some very important questions. Eight years of Obama would be a disaster with his Saul Alinksy radicalism and his efforts to fundamentally change America. This is the most important election since 1860. Together we have to stand shoulder-to-shoulder to get Congress to do the right thing.

BACHMANN - This is the most important election of our lifetime. We were promised hope and change, but this is our chance to get real hope and real change. I know how to grow the economy as a tax attorney and business owner.

SANTORUM - Thanks, Mike, you were a great warrior for faith and family in 2008. What's at the heart of this is that America is a moral enterprise and we are sick inside with 1000s of children being aborted and marriages being attacked and torn apart. I will stand and defend America.

And... scene.

Huck asks the questioners what they thought. Ken says no one bombed but some really shined. Pam says we heard more about the Constitution than all the other debates combined. Scott says we heard they will defend the rights of the states and that's exciting.

What did I think? I liked the format, I liked hearing each candidate having to explain themselves. I hated the grilling from three self-aggrandizing partisans. If it had been three journalists, this would have been much better. On second thought, Huntsman was probably right to skip this.

How'd the candidates do?

　

1. RON PAUL - He showed that he doesn't plan on overthrowing everything overnight, you have to have gradual change and transition programs. He pled for nullification to return. (I seem to recall South Carolina used nullification in 1860. How'd that turn out?) As usual, he came across as the most sincere one in the group.

2. MITT ROMNEY - Looked very orange. He had no problem going into details; I liked the energy exchange. He stood up for NCLB. Might have been easier for him to flip-flop but he didn't, even though his reasoning (Bush was standing up to the federal teachers!) was iffy.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - Danced around his ad with Nancy Pelosi, skipped over his individual mandate support, but otherwise threw out plenty of red meat for the base.

4. MICHELLE BACHMANN - I knew what she'd say on ObamaCare (it'll destroy the universe) and illegals (let's spend $135 billion to round em all up and ship em out), but when pressed on the EPA, it was clear she hadn't really though the consequences through.

5. RICK SANTORUM - Wants two new Constitutional Amendments for abortion and marriage, but thinks the Patriot Act is a-okay. Running to be Moralist-in-Chief.

6. RICK PERRY - Stumbled badly on the executive order question, seemed to save himself on the Tenth Amendment, then said he wants Constitutional amendments to give Supreme Court justices term limits and ban all abortion. When asked what a strict constructionist is, he didn't answer. He just said read the Constitution and don't try to interpret it. Like the Bible. But he wants an Amendment to give term limits to the Supreme Court... Staggering.

Ron Paul should win Iowa

Call me crazy, but Iowa is Ron Paul's to lose.
The vote is still five weeks away. That's plenty of time for operatives from rival campaigns to remind people just how much baggage Newt Gingrich carries. Sure, Newt was the first to get out a butt-kissing tweet on Herman Cain's decision to "suspend" his campaign and launch a website. Most talking-heads on cable are saying that Newt will benefit most from Cain leaving the race, but that makes me wonder. Of the folks who had Cain as their #1, why on Earth would Newt be their #2?

Cain was an outsider. Newt's the ultimate insider. Cain's support dropped somewhat after the sexual-harrassment claims, but substantially after the adultery claims. Newt's cheated on two wives. Cain made his money in corporate America. Newt made his money through cronyism. What else do you call Freddie Mac paying him $1.6 million? Cain had humble beginnings. The word "humble" has never come within ten miles of Newt Gingrich. I couldn't be less surprised that Newt was the first (and so far only) candidate to accept a debate with Donald Trump as moderator.

Now Newt likes big ideas and big adverbs. He more than any other candidate is very talented at making it sound like he's answering the question. When he was at the bottom of the polls, he was all smiles and magnaminity. His already giant head will swell with every poll point he gains. He is his own worst enemy.

So how does Iowa feel about that devastating ad Ron Paul put out illustrating Newt's flip-flops? How does Iowa feel about his co-starring with Nancy Pelosi in a climate-change ad? How do they feel about his support of TARP?

This is why I see Ron Paul as the next NotRomney. (Paul's polling second in Iowa right now.) I still see Romney as having a decent shot at Iowa. It seems like it always boils down to debate performances. But there needs to be a NotRomney, and I can see some people revisiting Bachmann, and the vote being close, and Ron Paul emerging victorious, with 30% of the vote. (Mitt 28%, Newt 22%, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, Huntsman getting the 20% leftovers.)

Now Ron Paul fans are passionate and can be, oh what's the word.... melodramatic? Don't get me wrong, I voted for Paul in 2008, but here's just some Facebook comments from Paul supporters in my groups, all left within the past few days:

"Don't rule Ron Paul out because he realizes the state is willing to do almost anything for self-preservation. That includes being part of 9/11."

"No one provides the kind of drastic, quick changes that this country needs besides Ron Paul. At this point I don't think it matters if we elect Obama again, or someone like Romney. They will both lead the country to complete collapse. Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who has a plan bold enough to cut enough of the fat from the government to actually save this republic."

"Ronald Reagan couldn't shine Ron Paul's shoes!!"

If their Iowan counterparts can work on persuasion, Paul really should be able to pull this off.

GOP InTrade Watch 11/26/11

From November 26.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 62.9%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 15.8%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 8%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 6%
5. (5) - Herman Cain - 2.7%
6. (6) - Rick Perry - 2%
7. (7) - Michl Bachmann - 1.4%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .7%

No one else is above .1%.

The Wednesday debate helped who it should have. Romney dipped but is still clearly ahead the field, while Gingrich, Huntsman and Paul all saw slight improvement. Herman Cain and Rick Perry fell further, and I would say it's time for those bottom four to bow out. And yet, Tim Pawlenty obviously bowed out too early, so who knows.

Meanwhile Romney's decided he's going to compete in Iowa after all, which 538's Nate Silver agrees is a good idea.  I think Romney was fine to cede Iowa when Perry or Cain was the front-runner, but with Gingrich and Paul doing well, either of them could ride the Iowa surge into New Hampshire and be credible competition.

CNN GOP Debate

Most haunted-house movies are about ghosts who either don't realize they're dead, or they can't quite let go. They cling to what was. Maybe they want revenge, information, closure, but eventually someone from the living comes along to serve as catalyst.

That's what watching the GOP debates feels like sometimes. I see Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the house, and there's Jon Huntsman on the end, like the nosy neighbor who's going to walk in at precisely the wrong moment. There's Rick Santorum on the other end, as the guy who gets killed in the prologue. Meanwhile the spectres of campaigns past haunt the stage. Perry rattles his chains, Cain whispers "The house is ours" and Bachmann crawls through the TV to settle a grudge. Someone needs to exorcise those three so they can go to their final resting place, with Santorum right behind them. Huntsman, I imagine, is waiting for the Iowa fallout to see if it bumps him in New Hampshire. I understand his strategy. The other four, though... It's sad.

But onward we must proceed, with still eight total talking heads on the stage. Here are your contestants:

MITT ROMNEY - "The Establishment Front-Runner". Hey, he doesn't change his positions as often as the GOP changes their front-runner.

NEWT GINGRICH - "The Flavor of the Week". I hereby pledge to advise all of Gingrich's companies for half of what he charged. (You're getting a sweet deal here.)

RON PAUL - "The Libertublican". I don't know if he really wants to be President; he just wants to make sure whoever is audits the Fed.

JON HUNTSMAN - "New Hampshire's Maitre'D" - If I mention I have a relative at Dartmouth, can I get a free backrub?

HERMAN CAIN - "9-9-9". The answer to the Jeopardy question "How many sexual harrassments lawsuits have been filed against him, against him, against him?"

RICK PERRY - "The Texas Christian" - I am not drunk.

MICHELLE BACHMANN - "The One Woman" - We'll always have Ames.

RICK SANTORUM - "The Social Conservative" - Put the gay toothpaste back in the Muslim tube!

6:02 - After an opening sequence that makes it look like we've assembled eight cyborgs to lead our country, Wolf Blitzer ("yes, that's my real name") gets to it with his own intros. Once again, I wish Vince McMahon were in charge of the intros. We need theme music and pyrotechnics. It would be no sillier than the opening sequences these cable producers package.

6:05 - No, wait. A guy from The Jersey Boys sings our national anthem. NOW we can begin.

6:07 - Oh wait. Wolf has to explain the debate rules. Speed it up, Wolf; we've got eight people up there.

6:09 - Holy crap, now the candidates are going to introduce themselves. Santorum dings Obama, Paul dings "unnecessary wars," Perry points out he's in a happy marriage, Romney starts off by joking that Mitt is his first name (*crickets*), Cain says Obama's "downgraded" our natl security, Gingrich plugs his work with Heritage, Bachmann says she wants to get troops home as soon as we can, and Huntsman does indeed mention New Hampshire.

6:13 - Wolf: "Let's get right to the questions!" Are you freakin' kidding me?

6:14 - First question is about keeping the Patriot Act. Newt wants to keep it, as we'll all be in the danger "for the rest of our lives." Paul disagrees, correctly, and gives a great plea against turning the US into a police state.

6:17 - Bachmann says we've handed over interrogation to the ACLU, says it was a bad thing we gave Miranda rights to the underwear bomber. Huntsman points out the brand of the United States means something overseas, wants to find the balancing act between liberty and security.

6:20 - Romney gets a TSA question but glosses over it so he can get into the war vs. crime debate.

6:21 - Perry wants to privatize the TSA and keep the Patriot Act. Most of them are competing to see who can make sure our future is Minority Report.

6:23 - Santorum has two modes: complaining he doesn't get enough questions, and whatever is suggested, he claims he voted for it first. He's pro-profiling, especially Muslims. Paul shakes his head, says we're not "at war." There's a war on terrorism but not against a people and stresses individual rights again.

6:25 - Cain seems to be cool with Santorum's approach to profiling. Cain wants to "refine" the Patriot Act but not throw it out because the terrorists still want to kill us. Paul can't believe some of these people are allowed on stage.

6:27 - Huntsman gets the Pakistan question. He plugs Congressional term limits slyly then says Pakistan should keep us up at night. "It's a haven for bad behavior." Bachmann calls Pakistan the "epicenter" of terrorist training, and I am reminded once again that she's on the Intelligence committee and will sound smart on foreign matters. She probably regrets the earlier debates weren't more focussed on foreign policy. And she coins the phrase: "Too nuclear to fail."

6:31 - Perry disgrees with Bachmann, and a couple seals in the back clap. Bachmann comes back "with all due respect" that's "highly naive." Oh snap! I've never liked her more.

6:33 - Perry tries to fall back on his briefings about Afghanistan and India, but Bachmann won't let him off the hook with his "blank check" remark.

6:35 - Romney called Pakistan the sixth largest country in the world. Factcheck! *clap-clap!* That's a True. Wow, had no idea.

6:36 - Romney wants to bring modernity to Pakistan but wants to be careful about withdrawals. Huntsman completely disagrees and begs for an honest discussion, rattles off our successes. Romney counters by dropping "we don't want to cut and run" and wants to listen to the generals on the ground. Huntsman points out LBJ listened to the generals on the ground in 1967 too. Romney gets in a confident rebuttal.

6:40 - Newt's grouchy he hasn't had a chance to respond, but isn't really sure what we're debating. He points out how killing bin Laden brought US-Pakistan relations to a new low. "Well, they should have." (applause)

6:41 - Santorum says he agrees with Ron Paul. We are not fighting a war against terrorism, terrorism is a tactic. (Waiting for the other shoe to drop...) We are fighting a war against radical Islam. (Ah...)
Commercial!

6:47 - Awkward minute where they try to get a question from the audience. If Israel attacked Iran to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, would you help the attack or otherwise support?

6:48 - Uh, oh. Cain goes first. He would first make sure they have a plan for success. Remember it's a very mountainous region. (Oh geez...) Cain's foreign policy plan: Asking "Are you sure?" If they say yes, "Attack!"

6:49 - Paul wouldn't help but he doesn't expect it to happen, as the Mossad leader said it would be the stupidest thing in the world for them to do. But if it did happen, "why does Israel need our help?"

6:51 - Cain comes back to Afghanistan, but Wolf mercifully cuts him off for a different question.

6:52 - Perry's asked about sanctions on Iran. He wants to sanction their Central Bank and kill their economy. He wants to bring in Syria too, and uh.. "at that moment, they'll understand America is serious."

6:53 - Newt says we need a surplus of energy here. We need a strategy here and here and over there. Frankly, more strategic, less tactical. He also used about ten -ly words in his answer. Bachmann gets in a shot at Obama cancelling the keystone pipeline before going back to Iran, saying they plan to use nuclear weapons against Israel and the United States. She pretty much says if World War III happens, it's Obama's fault.

6:57 - Paul Wolfowitz asks about all the good foreign aid the US has done (Fighting AIDS and malaria in Africa, for example.) Can we still afford to do that? Santorum says he supported the bill for fighting AIDS in Africa and how it helps combat terrorism by us giving aid, taking a veiled swipe at Perry for wanting to start every country at zero.

6:58 - Cain says it depends. He wants to see the results. Paul calls the aid worthless, says we're giving money to wealthy people in poor countries. Our budget's in trouble! "The biggest threat to our national security is our financial condition." Romney rails against cutting military spending and saying we should cut ObamaCare. Paul says we're not cutting anything; it's just talk. Romney flinches, then rattles off the planned military cuts and says Obama has failed to lead with strength.

7:00 - Newt drops the Reagan name, then Apple, then gets in a "profoundly" before reminding the audience how awesome WWII was. Then gets in a Lean Six Sigma plug and says "there are lots of things we can do." I'd wager most of the people in the room thought he gave an actual answer.

7:02 - Huntsman's asked where he stands on defense cuts. Says we have a financial deficit but we also have a "trust" deficit. We can't have an intellectually honest discussion about debt and spending with sacred cows. Everything needs to be on the table, then gives specifics of his strategy.

7:08 - Perry gets a softball on the supercommittee, but still sounds like he's stalling. Pronounces it "LegislaTors." Think half a trillion is five hundred million. Calls for Panetta to resign in protest "if he is an honorable man."

7:10 - Santorum gets the question on Reagan's compromise rule (I'd rather get 80% of what I want than nothing), and Santorum says "It depends."

7:12 - Question on entitlement reform. Newt talks about his Social Security plan based on the Chilean and Galveston models, which I am pretty sure Cain was the first one to propose in a previous debate. Bachmann says it's time to draw a line in the sand when it comes to raising the debt limit, says we've gone from $8 to $15 trillion in debt in four years. Says we need to balance the budget, then chip away at the debt.

Commercials!

7:19 - We get footage of protests in Egypt.

More commercials!

7:22 - Question on the southern border. Do you consider that to be a national interest threat? Perry says we need a 21st-century Monroe Doctrine, that Hamas and Hezbollah are operating in Mexico, slams Hugo Chavez, calls border security paramount to the entire Western Hemisphere. Says we can work with Mexico to sanction their banks. (Perry's a bank-sanctioning machine!)

7:25 - Paul says we need to cancel the drug war; it's to nobody's benefit. Says we should be more concerned with the border between the US and Mexico rather than the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Says we should handle illegal drugs the same way we handle alcohol and prescription drugs.

7:26 - Cain says we know terrorists have entered this country via the Mexican border. Says let's secure the border for real. Numbers off what he'd do, a Romney tactic. Santorum praises high-skill immigration, talks about trickle-down economics. Split-screen with Perry, who looks like he wants to meet Santorum in a dark alley.

7:28 - Newt uses Einstein as an example of the importance of immigration. He uses very big words to describe a humane way of dealing with illegal immigrants. Bachmann sledgehammers him with "Amnesty!" She says Steve Jobs said he had to move 30,000 jobs to China because he couldn't find the engineers here. (Which I call bullcrap on, seems like engineers are getting laid off all the time around here; US jobs are going to China becuz it's cheaper there.) Newt counters with being humane, not breaking up families. Bachmann essentially says "Nah, round em up and ship em out."

7:33 - Romney says amnesty is a magnet but wants to make legal immigration easier. Says he'd staple a green card to any immigrant who gets a Masters degree or PhD.

7:36 - Newt doubles-down on "separating families" but is pro-deportation for those illegals who haven't been here that long. Says the party shouldn't adopt a policy that breaks up families. Perry reluctantly sides with Mitt over Newt with a "here we go again." (See what he did there?) Says we have to secure the border first "once and for all." Mitt says it's a mistake to focus a Republican debate on amnesty.

Commercials!

7:43 - Question on Syria from Dick Cheney former Chief of Staff David Addington. Wolf says Perry suggested a no-fly zone over Syria; would you support that? "No." Then he says he'd work with our allies to stop buying oil from Syria, brings it back to the economy. (Is he actually going to go through a whole debate without saying "9-9-9"?) Perry weighs in, says it'd help the military in Syria disband, likens it to Iran.

7:45 - Huntsman gets a question on Arab Spring, says we missed the "Persian Spring." Says we need to remind the world what it means to be a friend and ally to the US. Says sanctions won't work becuz the Chinese and Russians won't play ball. Gives a great answer about the region.

7:49 - Somalia question, compares it to al-Qaeda. Paul says if we want to inspire al-Qaeda, let's just meddle in the region, calls a no-fly zone over Syria an act of war. How would we feel if China put a no-fly zone over one of our territories? Why don't we mind our own business?

7:51 - Romney realizes it's late in the debate, so he goes off on Obama, rattling off several contrasts between the two, then brushes aside Perry's no-fly suggestion. Perry back-peddles, says "no-fly" is an option to leave on the table.

7:54 - Last question is a good one. What natl security threat are you worried about that no one's talking about? Santorum talks about being scared of socialists through central and south America. "We took the side of Oogo Chavez." Paul says he worries most about overreaction on our part. Perry's worried about China, they have no values, they have 35,000 abortions a day. Romney says Perry's right on China in the long run but short-run Santorum's right on South America, says to Paul we have been attacked. Cain's worried about cyberattacks. Newt is worried about a weapon of mass destruction, an electro-magnetic pulse attack, and then cyberattacks. Bachmann agrees with everyone, but says Obama is giving away the peace we won in Iraq. Huntsman says he's worried about here at home, joblessness, lack of opportunity, debt, our trust deficit.

So how's they do?

1. RON PAUL - I don't think the beltway media can ignore him anymore. Paul made a clear distinction between himself and everyone else, and he's like the guy with nothing to lose. And he's always been that way. Paul made it clear he values liberty over safety, minding our own business over intervention, legallizing drugs, and drastically cutting the federal budget. If you support that, he's your guy. If you don't, well, you know he means it. I'd wager this will him a solid third-place in the polls in the next couple days.

2. JON HUNTSMAN - He needed a strong performance and he delivered. He came across as the perfect bridge between Paul and the rest of the crew. He also landed some hits on Romney, a rare occurance. He shredded Perry's bullet-point of sanctions and was pro-America in talking about all the things we've done right. His arguments seemed the most "general election" friendly than anyone else's.

3. NEWT GINGRICH - You know, when other candidates have ascended to "presumed front-runner" status, the other candidates have attacked them. Rick Perry bore the brunt, Mitt Romney slapped them back, Herman Cain felt the stings, but Newt... no one really seemed interested in going after him except Ron Paul. Tonight was the night to yank the chair out from under Newt, and no one did it. I know a lot of Republicans who are against the Patriot Act, but Newt was virtually arguing for fascism, and half of the candidates nodded and said, "Yeah, that's great." I was paying attention to his answers more than anyone else's, and I found half of his answers were frankly profoundly fundamentally completely... woops, out of time. Then when we got to immigration, he found himself to the left of most of the candidates, arguing for humanity in how we enforce our laws.

Debates are as much about presentation as content, those YouTube clips mean more than the transcripts. And Newt "performed" very well. He did nothing to knock himself off the "front-runner" pedestal, at least not in Iowa. His "Uncle Newt" persona is working. I wonder how much longer Republicans are going to let him stay atop the polls. They sure they don't want to kick the tires on Paul or Huntsman again for their Not-Romney model?

4. MITT ROMNEY - This actually felt like a missed opportunity for him. He still debated like he owned the place, but he tried a little too hard to make Obama sound like a complete failure on foreign policy when Obama's really weakest on domestic. I thought he needed to poke the pin in the Newt balloon, but I think he was waiting for someone else to do it.

5. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Pwned Rick Perry on the Middle East. I recall she's the one who took him down on the HPV vaccine. Says we need to balance the budget but still isn't clear on what she'd actually beyond not raise the debt ceiling and not raise taxes, and she's in the Pro-Police State camp.

6. RICK SANTORUM - Wants to profile Muslims who fly, fumbled the compromise question. Otherwise he was his usual self.

7. HERMAN CAIN - He had the same answer for every question. He would gather some experts together and then look at the information and then make a decision. Maybe fighting AIDS in Africa is a good thing, maybe it's not.

8. RICK PERRY - He was lost. Any answer he gave, someone else could counter with "Actually, that's not how it works." You could see the little wheels in his head fighting to remember the answers from his 3x5 cards. I'm amazed Texas has let him win two re-elections.

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7. Recreational Therapists

GOP InTrade Watch 11/17

As of November 17
1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 70.5%
2. (4) - Newt Gingrich - 13.3%
3. (5) - Ron Paul - 4.7%
4. (5) - Jon Huntsman - 3.9%
5. (3) - Herman Cain - 3.4%
6. (2) - Rick Perry - 3%
7. (7) - Mich. Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .6%
9. (10)- Sarah Palin - .3%
10.(8) - Gary Johnson - .2%

I imagine Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels sitting at a bar somewhere, watching the NationalJournal debate on foreign policy cut off so CBS can show some reruns, then they flip the channel to one of the smaller cable-news channels where they talk about the inevitability of Mitt Romney, and how it's now Newt Gingrich's turn to surge.

Pawlenty: "Coulda been you."

Daniels: "If you hadn't dropped out after Ames, it would've been you."

(simultaneous sips from their brewskies)

Pawlenty: "One-point-six million from Freddie Mac for advice as a historian."

Daniels: "You're telling me.  Why did we become governors?"

Pawlenty: "Think Ron Paul will get a turn?"

Daniels: "Why not?  Then everyone will suddenly remember he'll be 77 years old in 2012, and they'll spin that story of some Paul blog defending a neo-Nazi, and it'll fizzle and die."

Pawlenty: "Then Huntsman?"

Daniels: "Right before Christmas.  Then down on New Years Day."

Pawlenty: "Think Santorum will get a turn?"

They look at each other, then bust up laughing. They finish their beers, pay the tab, and put the Mitt 2012 buttons back on their jackets.