Saturday, November 26, 2011

GOP InTrade Watch 11/26/11

From November 26.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 62.9%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 15.8%
3. (4) - Jon Huntsman - 8%
4. (3) - Ron Paul - 6%
5. (5) - Herman Cain - 2.7%
6. (6) - Rick Perry - 2%
7. (7) - Michl Bachmann - 1.4%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .7%

No one else is above .1%.

The Wednesday debate helped who it should have. Romney dipped but is still clearly ahead the field, while Gingrich, Huntsman and Paul all saw slight improvement. Herman Cain and Rick Perry fell further, and I would say it's time for those bottom four to bow out. And yet, Tim Pawlenty obviously bowed out too early, so who knows.

Meanwhile Romney's decided he's going to compete in Iowa after all, which 538's Nate Silver agrees is a good idea.  I think Romney was fine to cede Iowa when Perry or Cain was the front-runner, but with Gingrich and Paul doing well, either of them could ride the Iowa surge into New Hampshire and be credible competition.

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