Thursday, October 30, 2008

Obama Supporter Shocked by McCain Sign

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj1ENW0K_OE

A man was tired of people stealing his McCain signs from his yard so he hooked one up with an electrical charge and pointed a camera at it. A 9-year-old boy entered his yard and tried to grab the sign but received a shock.

Monday, October 27, 2008

McCain losing ground

A month ago I thought Colorado and Nevada were crucial for McCain. But now it looks like if he loses Ohio and Pennsylvania, it's over, and he's down in Pennsylvania by 10 points. Only if he wins both of them and keeps North Carolina and Florida does McCain then rest his hopes on keeping at least one of Colorado and Nevada.

Looking at electoral map history, the nation used to be a lot more prone to giant swings in going red or going blue. FDR won big all four times, as did Truman the first time, even though the popular vote was close. Then the country overwhelmingly went for Eisenhower. Kennedy squeaked out 1960, but the nation threw its electoral weight behind Lyndon Johnson, only to throw it the other way behind Nixon in '68 and '72. Things got close, but Ronald Reagan had record landslides for two elections. Bill Clinton only got 43% of the vote in 1992 but electoral-college-wise it was a landslide. And we've been close ever since.

It wouldn't surprise me to see this race remain close on Nov. 4, but I think more likely, Obama will see a couple of those swing states go his way early, be it Ohio or New Hampshire or North Carolina or Florida, and it will have a domino effect that spreads West, winding up getting him over 300 electoral votes.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Ashley Todd = Morton Downey Jr.

I remember watching Morton Downey Jr., precursor to Jerry Springer. He was loud, he was crude, he'd get in people's faces and scream and blow smoke in their face. His career ended when he claimed he'd been attack by neo-Nazis who shaved half his head and painted a swastika on his forehead. Trouble is, the swastika was backward. His story fell apart.

When I first heard her story, it sounded funny. The mugger had the money, but then followed her to her car, then saw the McCain bumper sticker, then jumped her and carved a B into her face? Backward? Maybe 20-year-old Ashley Todd wanted to underline some of the left-wing anger (Norm Coleman's house vandalized) since the right-wing anger ("He's an Arab!") is all that's getting reported right now. But her 48-hour news cycle stint hurts McCain more than it helps. Now every couple of years, some news station or paper will do a "Where are they now?" blurb, and Ashley Todd will be one.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

No One Will Win

If Barack Obama wins, it will be said it's because he broke his word about public financing and spent more money than any presidential candidate in history. He bought the election. It will be because the media is vastly Democratic or liberal-leaning, and they did more to vet Joe the Plumber than Barack Obama, an inexperienced first-time Senator who has spent more time running for president than serving as senator. It will be said the hate machine on the Left, from DailyKos to Huffington Post to Keith Olbermann engaged in Machiavellian tactics to make sure the Messiah won, and they ignored the illegal and dishonest tactics by ACORN to submit thousands of fraudulant votes throughout several battleground states. Unless it's a blow-out, it will be said he not only bought it, but stole it with voter fraud.

If John McCain wins, it will be said it's because America's still full of racists. It will be said it's because of the Bradley effect. It will be said that there must have been voter fraud on the Right, and hundreds of lawsuits will be filed. It will be said that it was the hate stirred up by Sarah Palin that got just enough conservatives angry enough to vote. Wouldn't surprise me to see riots if McCain wins.

Now neither of these scenarios may not generate, and if they do, it will only be noticed or thought about by a small percentage of this nation. The political system is set up to hate thy neighbor, and cable news channels should be called cable poll channels or cable pundit channels. CNN Headline News or C-Span are the only ones where the majority is actually news. I watch pieces of CNN, MSNBC and Fox News, but I can usually only stand a few minutes at a time at what I'm seeing.

Meanwhile there probably won't be any significant investigations as to what led to these meltdowns, because of how intertwined government already is with business, and how much more power the government can give itself due to the crises we have. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and Charlie Rangel won't even lose their chairs.

BUUUT politics has always been this way. When John Adams and Thomas Jefferson ran against each other, Adams said the election of Jefferson would lead to increased rape and murder in America.

The real reason if Obama wins: people want to vote for something, not against.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Sarah Palin in 2012?

Pretty bloody likely, unless her family decides otherwise.

It looks like McCain will lose the election, and the next four years will be Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Sarah Palin can go back to Alaska, finish her term, run for a second in 2010, and then think about if she wants to try the national circuit thing again. I believe she can do it.

For starts, she would have a different team. I think she and McCain see what a disservice Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis have done to them. They ran a campaign like Bush 2004. McCain is not Bush, but it was eaiser for Obama to keep hammering that point when Rove acolytes were running his campaign. When Palin joined the ticket, she didn't bring her own people, people who knew her, people who knew her strengths and weaknesses and have learned what has worked for her in the past and what hasn't. 80% approval rating from any state is no accident.

Barring a Gingrichian figure to rise to leadership in Congress that will be heavily Democratic next year, the void will try to be filled by the next presidential election.

Now who on the stage now could run in 2012? Mitt Romney could give it another go. If the economy is still messy in Fall 2011, he would have some appeal. He's also said some things this year that will bite him then. ("I want to double the size of Guantanamo.") I don't see Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or John McCain as viable in 2012.

The other main pursuer to the 2012 crown I see is Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal. He's even younger than Palin, but he showed vastly superior leadership during Hurricane Gustav than whoever ran that place when Katrina hit. And hey, he's an ethnic minority. Democrats will always label Republicans as racists until they get an ethnic minority on the ticket. (Never mind that poll that said 30% of white Democrats are racist and former KKK member Robert Byrd is the senior Democrat in the Senate.)

On the flip side, I can see many Republicans who aspire to the presidency sitting 2012 out. If Obama is remotely effective, they might not want to be the Bob Dole of 2012. I would argue the main reason Hillary sat out 2004 was she knew half of one term as senator wasn't going to beat Bush, adding to the irony of what Obama was able to do.

Where do I sit today? I sit contented knowing Obama will be our next president. I sit hoping he'll be able to control the leadership in Congress from treating the next four years as revenge time. Obama's been going more and more to the middle since he sealed the nomination, and maybe he can effectively govern from there. My general feeling is that 30% of the country is die-hard leftie Democrat, 30% is die-hard rightie Republican, and then there's the middle 40% who get screwed by gerrymandering. The next two to four years is the time for the GOP to reform itself, get back to basics, quit asking 'What Would Reagan Do?' (I loved him too, but it's a different time now) and see what big issues Obama will actually reach across the aisle on.

I also hope this is the time the Democrats learn from the mistakes of the Republicans during their control years. I hope they reform themselves too. But if in January 2009, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd still hold their Chair positions, I'll just have to brace for two more years of the Same Old Same Old.

10% approval, Nancy. 10% approval, Harry. Clean thine houses, for the good of the country.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Al E. Smith Dinner

McCain pt. 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goaj5V4tZoc

pt. 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrqoSyKsAPw

Obama pt. 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXKaAQ-6BiU

pt. 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkBQf4FJi-o

McCain was hilarious. Obama had some good lines too, but he didn’t seem as comfortable doing comedy.

Nice to see them in an environment like this.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

And they're done

McCain had the line of the night with "If you wanted to vote against Pres. Bush, you should have done it four years ago." But Rachel Maddow pointed out that the left is going to go after McCain's stance on abortion, where he made light of what exactly Obama means by the "health" of the mother.

Obama agrees with McCain

Despite lefties slamming Obama agreeing with McCain too much in the first debate, I think it served him well. He's aunafraid to say he agrees with McCain on charter schools. He makes sure he then leads into where they disagree.

Last question: education

Really? We have fifteen more minutes. Why is this the last question?

Obama gives an eloquant answer, and I feel weird saying that now since McCain has repeated that Obama's "eloquence" tends to hide what he really means. McCain points out he & Cindy and the Obamas "chose" where to send their kids to schools.

"My friend"

John McCain just said to Joe the Plumber "my friend." He said "my friends" 22 times in the last debate. He must have made a conscious effort to not do it tonight, but I just noticed he hadn't said it until now, an hour into the debate.

Nuclear power

Obama's getting in more and more laughs. Little one-syllable laughs to dismiss whatever McCain is talking about. Much more effective than Sighmaster Gore.

Strong dial reads on both of their energy answers.

Running mate question

This should be a home-run for Obama, where it lets him sit back and talk about Biden's good qualities.

McCain's talking about Palin and the Ohio undecided men like what he's saying more than women. The women finally moved up in the dial when McCain said she'd be a "breath of fresh air."

Now Bob Schieffer asks Obama what he thinks of Palin. He dances around some compliments, which is the smart way to go, and he is able to turn Palin's support of special-needs children into an illustration on why McCain's spending freeze proposal might hurt them. McCain on Biden gets out quick praise before rattling off where he thinks Biden is wrong. I score it even.

Ayers and ACORN

McCain brings up William Ayers and Obama addresses them. Obama details his relationship with Ayers and dismisses it, and it's effective. His explanation of ACORN didn't ring true, so it will be interesting to see if that gains traction.

Obama's now smartly interrupting McCain when he continues to hammer at Ayers.

Negative Campaigning

McCain's repudiation of John Lewis was powerful, and Obama ignored the challenge to repudiate Lewis comparing McCain to segregationist George Wallace. Obama smoothly transitioned to his talking points. When McCain brought Lewis back up, Obama basically said it's Sarah Palin's fault, but then he finally spit out they'd put out a statement that it was inappropriate.

So far this is McCain's best and Obama's worst debate.

McCain brought up the T-shirts, but that's all the details he got out. I wonder how many of the 50 millionish watching know about the "Palin is a c**t" T-shirts.

CNN dials

The Ohio undecided men don't like Obama saying McCain is eight more years of Bush.

Third and Final Presidential Debate

First question on the economy - both brought up their usual points. McCain repeated Obama's line "spread the wealth" five or six times.

Second question on the budget - what would you cut? Obama's only specific is a $15 million subsidy through Medicare to insurance companies. McCain mentions energy and defense spending, and he gets a jump on Obama's usual line of "you don't need a hatchet, you need a scalpel." Obama still finds a way to get the line out.

Hey, McCain looked right at Obama. "Sen. Obama, I am not Pres. Bush. If you wanted to run against Pres. Bush, you should have run four years ago."

Friday, October 3, 2008

Cable reactions

MSNBC seemed disgusted by Sarah Palin. Fox News loved her. CNN had people who saw it both ways.

I think both did well where they needed to. Biden made it clear he's ready to be president. Palin made it clear she's not an idiot.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Biden nearly chokes up

He almost choked when thinking about his child who died and others who might not live. As a dad of one who died and another with a terminal condition, that might be the moment I remember from this debate the longest.

That's going to get a lot of replay.

Back & Forth

BIDEN: He challenges her on small-town values by plugging Scranton.

PALIN: Extra credit to a group of third-graders for watching the debate.

There's the Alaskan charm that the McCain camp has muzzled.



After the first debate, I got the feeling McCain dislikes Obama. This debate's almost over and I think Biden and Palin will have no such ill feelings.

Lost in numbers

Joe Biden got in a "bridge to nowhere" zinger, then Ifill let him respond first to the next question. He's tossing out all sorts of numbers of McCain offering tax breaks to this industry at that industry, which women are eating up much more than men.

Hey, Palin looked at Biden. Something McCain wouldn't do. Palin points out Obama voted for tax breaks to Big Oil in 2005.

More Tax Stuff

Biden's saying anyone making under $250,000 will see no tax raises with Obama, including captial gains. That's a specific I hadn't heard.

Palin: I take issue with that principle of the redistribution of wealth principle.

When Palin said usually government's the problem, the men's approval bar on CNN shot up.

now she's giving some details on health care. In just a few minutes, Biden and Palin are giving mroe details than McCain and Obama did in their ninety minutes.

Biden bites back

Biden says McCain voted for tax increases 477 times.

Palin slaps back to plug her own record, but when she starts to defend McCain, Gwen Ifill says we're out of time.

Sub-Prime Mortgages

PALIN: "Darn right" there was corruption with predatory lending. I think "John McCain & I" will get old if she says it every four sentences.

BIDEN: Obama warned us about sub-prime mortages. Really? I'm sure it's in a transcript somewhere, but no one trumpeted on this. So far it's been clear Joe's tack is going to be to attack McCain on every answer.

PALIN: Barack voted against tax cuts 94 times. I wonder if that's true.

VP Debate beginning

Joe biden has a gracious and detailed opening statement, and Sarah Palin responds with a competant answer, both hitting a few talking points. And we're off.