Sarah Palin and Political Language

Listened to a few minutes of Sarah Palin giving pat, red-meat answers on Fox News Sunday, then I happened upon this quote:

"Political language—and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists—is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind." - George Orwell

GOP InTrade Watch 11/17

As of November 17
1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 70.5%
2. (4) - Newt Gingrich - 13.3%
3. (5) - Ron Paul - 4.7%
4. (5) - Jon Huntsman - 3.9%
5. (3) - Herman Cain - 3.4%
6. (2) - Rick Perry - 3%
7. (7) - Mich. Bachmann - 1.1%
8. (8) - Rick Santorum - .6%
9. (10)- Sarah Palin - .3%
10.(8) - Gary Johnson - .2%

I imagine Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels sitting at a bar somewhere, watching the NationalJournal debate on foreign policy cut off so CBS can show some reruns, then they flip the channel to one of the smaller cable-news channels where they talk about the inevitability of Mitt Romney, and how it's now Newt Gingrich's turn to surge.

Pawlenty: "Coulda been you."

Daniels: "If you hadn't dropped out after Ames, it would've been you."

(simultaneous sips from their brewskies)

Pawlenty: "One-point-six million from Freddie Mac for advice as a historian."

Daniels: "You're telling me.  Why did we become governors?"

Pawlenty: "Think Ron Paul will get a turn?"

Daniels: "Why not?  Then everyone will suddenly remember he'll be 77 years old in 2012, and they'll spin that story of some Paul blog defending a neo-Nazi, and it'll fizzle and die."

Pawlenty: "Then Huntsman?"

Daniels: "Right before Christmas.  Then down on New Years Day."

Pawlenty: "Think Santorum will get a turn?"

They look at each other, then bust up laughing. They finish their beers, pay the tab, and put the Mitt 2012 buttons back on their jackets.

Sarah Palin Not Running

After months and months of teasing, Sarah Palin decided to not run for president and stay at her $1 million analyst job at Fox News Channel.

I can't help but wonder whom this will affect more. Mitt Romney probably wanted her to run, someone to muddy the Not-Romney waters. Herman Cain may be the flavor of the week, but he rose so quickly to win the Florida straw poll that I can't help but wonder if he could just as quickly fade. Rick Perry's supposedly fading, but I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. All he needs is one good debate performance. Judging from past debates though, I see Cain doing better than Perry.

Romney, meanwhile, had a much easier row to hoe attacking Perry. How is supposed to handle Cain? Romney's been making a big deal about how he's not a career politician and he has private-sector experience. Cain has never held public office and has private-sector experience. Does Romney need to now emphasize his four years as the governor of Massachusetts?

GOP InTrade Watch

As of September 29.

It's been about six weeks since I last checked these numbers, which was right after the Iowa debate.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 47.9%
2. (2) Rick Perry - 23.9%
3. (9) Chris Christie - 8.5%
4. (-) Herman Cain - 5.4%
5. (3) Sarah Palin - 4.5%
6. (4) Jon Huntsman - 4.0%
7. (10) Newt Gingrich - 2.9%
8. (7) Ron Paul - 2.5%
9. (6) Michelle Bachmann - 2.0%
10. (-) Mike Huckabee - 2.0%
-- Rick Santorum - 1.0%
-- Gary Johnson - 0.6%

Out of top 10: Tim Pawlenty, Rudy Guiliani

Six weeks ago, Romney and Perry were neck-and-neck. A couple more debates, and Romney's blown open a wide lead.

It's still amusing to me that two of the top five aren't running for president. Oh, Palin can tease. My hunch though is that there's a section of GOP donors who believe all she'd do is syphon votes from Perry and assure Romney's win, whereas Christie would syphon voters from both and could possibly win the nomination, providing he's a better debater than Perry.

Bachmann's fall after winning the Ames straw poll has been remarkable. "Wow, that was a fast implosion," said Howard Dean.

Santorum and now Johnson are wasting our time. I'd love it if the next debate was whittled down to seven. Or six.

Regarding 'The Undefeated'

There hasn't been and never will be a presidential candidate where I'd want to see a rah-rah "only the good stuff" documentary of their political career in a movie theater. The unsubtle Sarah Palin documentary The Undefeated dropped over 60% in its second weekend and now will be looking for Video-on-Demand release. Maybe I'll see it on DVD if she actually runs. I don't think she'll run.

Rick Perry continues to make bedroom eyes toward GOP donors, hinting, flirting, teasing that he might get in the race. I can actually see him jumping in. I don't think he'd beat Mitt Romney as easily as some think, but he'd make it a tighter race, as long-term very few believe Michelle Bachmann could actually win the nomination.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Hopefuls

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 23.9%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 15.3%
3. (6) Jon Huntsman - 12%
4. (3) Mitch Daniels - 11%
5. (6) Mike Huckabee - 7.5%
6. (6) Sarah Palin - 5.2%
7. (5) Donald Trump - 4.4%
8. (10) Newt Gingrich - 4.1%
9. (4) Michelle Bachmann - 4%
10.(-) Herman Cain - 3%

Rising: Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain
Falling: Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, Michelle Bachmann, Haley Barbour

Haley Barbour dropped off because he announced he won't be running for president.

The first GOP presidential debate arguably helped Herman Cain the most, who went from "has no chance" to cracking the top ten here. Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Gary Johnson did not, and Tim Pawlenty slipped a little.

Mitt Romney's still top dog, but it seems like a lot of voters are anxiously looking elsewhere. Flavors of the month rise and fall, and Trump and Bachmann had their fun but now they're sliding off. Huntsman and Daniels will have their turn.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Hopefuls

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 26.9%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 16%
3. (3) Mitch Daniels - 8.5%
4. (7) Michelle Bachmann - 7.6%
5. (-) Donald Trump - 6.1%
6. (5) Mike Huckabee - 5%
6. (9) Jon Huntsman - 5%
6. (4) Sarah Palin - 5%
9. (8) Haley Barbour - 4.5%
10.(6) Newt Gingrich - 3.9%

Rising: Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann, Donald Trump
Falling: Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie

If Sarah Palin plans to run for president, she'd better do it soon. Michelle Bachmann is ramping up her efforts and getting the supporters, and Palin looks less relevant with each passing week.

Meanwhile Mike Huckabee is another sideline-sitter who needs to decide if he's going to do it or not. He fares well in the occassional poll, but he also looks like one who doesn't want to abandon his cushy Fox News job for another run, even if it's to just block Romney.

Mitt Romney is making the trips and speeches and is absorbing more and more the front-runner mantle. Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels, methinks, really need the first debate to truly get their momentum going.

And Donald Trump, well, he's making headlines with the birther thing. Maybe it's all an elaborate stunt to boost the ratings for Celebrity Apprentice.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Nominee

InTrade's changed their look.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 24.6%
2. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 18.1%
3. (2) Mitch Daniels - 10.2%
4. (3) Sarah Palin - 6.2%
5. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6%
6. (7) Newt Gingrich - 5.7%
7. (10) Michelle Bachmann - 4.3%
8. (9) Haley Barbour - 4.2%
9. (6) Jon Huntsman - 4%
10. (-) Chris Christie - 2.8%

Rising: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, Chris Christie
Falling: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, John Thune (8)

Thune officially declared he wouldn't run for president, so he's dropped off. Christie has said repeatedly he won't run, but he still lands in the top ten with many a conservative hoping the New Jersey governor will change his mind.

There seem to be three camps right now. Camp #1 is for Mitt. Safe, front-runner, he's been vetted, he's good on the economy. Camp #2 is for the anti-Mitt, looking for someone with more charisma but still decent credentials, and right now their hopes seem to be with Tim Pawlenty. Camp #3 is the Tea Party, and as Palin's stock falls, Bachmann's rises.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Post-CPAC

Based on Bid%

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 24%
2. (6) Mitch Daniels - 11.4%
3. (3) Sarah Palin - 11.1%
4. (5) Tim Pawlenty - 8.8%
5. (4) Mike Huckabee - 8.5%
6. (7) Jon Huntsman - 5.2%
7. (8) Newt Gingrich - 4.5%
8. (2) John Thune - 4%
9. (10) Haley Barbour - 3.1%
10. (9) - Michelle Bachmann - 2.9%

Rising: Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels
Falling: John Thune

I don't remember hearing anything about John Thune's appearance at CPAC, but maybe that's exactly why his stock plummeted. Now Mitch Daniels is the hot ticket, and if I had some extra cash, I'd short-sell him. Seems like Romney's hanging on to front-runner status, and while I get the feeling most Republicans want someone different, they'll rally around if there's no better alternative. It's early enough in the process that they're looking around for that alternative.

Donald Trump (1.7%), Rom Paul (1.6%) and Rudy Guiliani (1.5%) aren't getting any traction yet. GOP stars that have insisted they aren't running are staying out of the top ten as well, like Chris Christie (1.7%), Jeb Bush (1.1%), Rick Perry (1%) and Marco Rubio (.3%).

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 1/11

The latest InTrade poll on the Republican nominee for president in 2012, based on Bid%.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 13%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.7%
4. (6) Tim Pawlenty - 8.8%
5. (4) Mike Huckabee - 8.4%
6. (5) Mitch Daniels - 7.9%
7. (9) Newt Gingrich - 4.2%
8. (8) Mike Pence - 3.1%
9. (7) Haley Barbour - 2%
10. (-) Chris Christie - 1.8%

Rising: Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels
Falling: Sarah Palin, Haley Barbour, Jeb Bush (10)

Sarah Palin has taken a hit in the aftermath of the Tucson shooting. She was at 19% last month.

Tim Pawlenty is pacing himself nicely, about what Huckabee was doing in 2007.

There are seem to be many Republicans who are positioning themselves for 2016, assuming the GOP nominee loses in 2012. They include Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Jon Huntsman, Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry.

A recent Iowa caucus poll had their top five as:

Mike Huckabee - 24%
Mitt Romney - 19%
Sarah Palin - 11%
Newt Gingrich - 8%
Tim Pawlenty - 4%

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 12/10

From InTrade, based on Bid%:

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21.9%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 19%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.2%
4. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6.7%
5. (8) Mitch Daniels - 6.5%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 5.8%
7. (10) Haley Barbour - 4.3%
8. (-) Mike Pence - 4.1%
9. (7) Newt Gingrich - 4%
10.(6) Jeb Bush - 4%

Rising: Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence
Falling: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan (9)

I should point out that Romney's percentage has dipped and Palin's has increased since last month, and it wouldn't surprise me if in a month or two, she passes him. Thune's percentage has also dipped. I'm not really sure why he's had so much support early from this site, but it's looking like much is going to hinge on that first GOP debate.

Keep this kid away from your daughters

Levi Johnston, the father of Sarah Palin's grandchild, is turning out to be quite the scumbag.

My 2-1/2 Cents on the Weekend in Politics

MY 2-1/2 CENTS ON THE WEEKEND POLITICS

Cent #1 - Unemployment is now at 9.5%. Joe Biden said everyone underestimated how bad the economy was. (Not everyone...) The stimulus package saved government jobs and created new ones, but the private sector is getting decimated. Yes, Pres. Bush got this thing rolling. Yes, Hank Paulson did his buddies at Goldman Sachs a favor by letting their competitor Lehman Brothers fail. Yes, the Republican Congress failed to act like republicans and enabled Bush on his spending spreee. But after a while, the Obama Administration needs to stop blaming the past when it's doing nothing to help our present and future. Obama's tripled, almost quadrupled the deficit, in the name of "saving" jobs; meanwhile Congress is passing laws that'll increase the size of government but lose more private-sector jobs. And if unemployment hits 11%, they'll report that Obama has "saved" 89% of the jobs in America.

Cent #2 - Sarah Palin is quitting as governor of Alaska in the middle of her first term because of "country first" saying that all the erroneous ethics charges her opponents are throwing at her are wasting the time and money of Alaskans. So her enemies got their way. This seriously damamges her chances and credibility of a 2012 presidential run. The worst thing that could've happened to her was for John McCain to pick her as his vice-presidential running-mate. If he hadn't, she'd still be the most popular governor in the union; she could finish out her term as governor, and then get the ball rolling for a 2012 bid. As is, she was thrust in the limelight, demonstrated she wasn't ready (her Katie Couric interview was her own fault; just name a freaking newspaper!), and she was castigated by her enemies with rare zeal.

But again, her enemies got their way. She's only making Mitt Romney look more presidential.

Cent #2-1/2 - I'm already over Michael Jackson's death. Yes, he was huge, but there were times where I wanted to see what the latest was on Iran or Honduras, and there's someone interviewing Corey Feldman or MJ's former nurse.

Hope you had a good Fourth of July!

Palin Africa hoax revealed

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/arts/television/13hoax.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

The guy who was revealed to be the source from the McCain campaign who said Sarah Palin thought Africa was a country and not a continent... is one big web hoax.

Election Winners & Losers

Winners & Losers of the Election:

WINNER: The Democratic Party - It shored up its base and expanded to places where Republicans were once gaining ground. Latinos broke for Obama, and younger people. It had the reverse Bradley effect. Despite presiding over the least popular Congress in history, the Dems made big gains in the House and Senate.

LOSER: The Republican Party - John McCain's never been the darling of the base, but his failed campaign left the party in shambles. Sometimes you need to be reduced to ashes to rise like a phoenix, but now is the time for the GOP to look for its heart and soul. They'll barely be able to filibuster, so they'll need to choose their battles wisely. They also lost ground on two of their normally strongest issues - the economy and national security. How can they argue Democrats will make us more socialist when they helped pass the $700 billion bailout?

WINNER: David Axelrod & Robert Gibbs - They showed that positive campaigning works. The Obama Team stayed positive when Hillary was beating them, and they could stay above the fray when the surrogates did the attacking. Look at the pleasant smile on Gibbs's face when he says he wouldn't accuse Sean Hannity of anti-Semitism for having an anti-Semite on his show. Now Axelrod is a White House Advisor and Gibbs is the press secretary.

LOSER: Steve Schmidt & Rick Davis - They looked smart the day after the GOP convention wrapped, but then it all fell apart. They had a different message every few days, and they never seemed to realize when certain mud didn't stick. They used Palin as an attack dog, which drove up her negatives, and they didn't let any of her Alaska people help with the campaign. Now they have a bunch of anonymous workers joining in the circular firing squad. (Until the worker is man enough to name himself, I find it impossible to believe Palin didn't know Africa was a continent and not one big country.)

WINNER: Old-school conservatives - This battle hasn't been fought yet, but writers like Chris Buckley, Peggy Noonan, George Will, David Brooks, etc., seemed to realize the only way to save the Republican party from itself was to reject its current trajectory. This means more goodwill built up for governors like Bobby Jindal and Charlie Crist, and it means Newt Gingrich will bend a few more ears with his think-tank.

LOSER: Populist conservatives - Sarah Palin needs to decide which camp she wants to belong to. She went the populist route and it cost her. She needs to finish her term as governor and do some studying. Meanwhile I don't think the Mike Huckabee/Gary Bauer type is going to fly in 2012. I'd put the hawkish neocons in this camp too.

WINNER: CNN. The Pew Research group found CNN to be the most balanced of all the news in this election cycle.

LOSER: MSNBC. The Pew Research Group found them to be the least balanced, and they're still last in cable ratings, though Rachel Maddow gets a shout-out for sometimes beating Larry King now. NBC itself showed to be pretty fair, and guys like Tom Brokaw and Brian Williams have expressed displeasure at their cable wing aiming to just be a liberal Fox News.

WINNER: Franklin D. Roosevelt. If Obama implements half of what he promised, America is going to get a New New Deal.

LOSER: George W. Bush. He got us into two wars, and intelligence eventually revealed one was unjustified. Even if it had been, his administration blew the post-war occupation. Meanwhile he presided over major increases in spending, a ballooning deficit, a further out-of-balance budget, the nationalization of banks, and an annihilation of the Republican majority in both houses. And Osama bin Laden is still free.

WINNER: Howard Dean. His plan in 2005 to go to all 50 states is paying fruit. GOP mainstays like Virginia and Indiana went blue, and the NY Times election map shows that 90% of the counties in the US were bluer now than they were in 2004. And he's quitting while he's ahead.

LOSER: Karl Rove. His plan of keeping the base energized and ignoring everybody else collapsed when Bush gave them nothing to be energized about from the 2005 State of the Union address onward.

WINNER: Harry Reid. He has the power now. Will he use it wisely?

LOSER: Joe Lieberman. When the Senate was 51-49 they needed him. Now that it's more like 57-43, sayonara, Joe, from any important position.

Savaging Sarah Palin

It's very strange what's going on with John McCain's campaign aftermath. All kinds of anonymous campaign folk are accusing Sarah Palin of all sorts of things, among them that she didn't know that Africa was a continent, not a country. Rush Limbaugh made the point that McCain aides are doing more to trash Palin than they ever did Jeremiah Wright or William Ayers. I don't think many of the McCain team will find themselves on the staff of whoever the 2012 GOP nominee will be.

I still think the front-runners for 2012 are Palin and Bobby Jindal.

Sarah Palin in 2012?

Pretty bloody likely, unless her family decides otherwise.

It looks like McCain will lose the election, and the next four years will be Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Sarah Palin can go back to Alaska, finish her term, run for a second in 2010, and then think about if she wants to try the national circuit thing again. I believe she can do it.

For starts, she would have a different team. I think she and McCain see what a disservice Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis have done to them. They ran a campaign like Bush 2004. McCain is not Bush, but it was eaiser for Obama to keep hammering that point when Rove acolytes were running his campaign. When Palin joined the ticket, she didn't bring her own people, people who knew her, people who knew her strengths and weaknesses and have learned what has worked for her in the past and what hasn't. 80% approval rating from any state is no accident.

Barring a Gingrichian figure to rise to leadership in Congress that will be heavily Democratic next year, the void will try to be filled by the next presidential election.

Now who on the stage now could run in 2012? Mitt Romney could give it another go. If the economy is still messy in Fall 2011, he would have some appeal. He's also said some things this year that will bite him then. ("I want to double the size of Guantanamo.") I don't see Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or John McCain as viable in 2012.

The other main pursuer to the 2012 crown I see is Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal. He's even younger than Palin, but he showed vastly superior leadership during Hurricane Gustav than whoever ran that place when Katrina hit. And hey, he's an ethnic minority. Democrats will always label Republicans as racists until they get an ethnic minority on the ticket. (Never mind that poll that said 30% of white Democrats are racist and former KKK member Robert Byrd is the senior Democrat in the Senate.)

On the flip side, I can see many Republicans who aspire to the presidency sitting 2012 out. If Obama is remotely effective, they might not want to be the Bob Dole of 2012. I would argue the main reason Hillary sat out 2004 was she knew half of one term as senator wasn't going to beat Bush, adding to the irony of what Obama was able to do.

Where do I sit today? I sit contented knowing Obama will be our next president. I sit hoping he'll be able to control the leadership in Congress from treating the next four years as revenge time. Obama's been going more and more to the middle since he sealed the nomination, and maybe he can effectively govern from there. My general feeling is that 30% of the country is die-hard leftie Democrat, 30% is die-hard rightie Republican, and then there's the middle 40% who get screwed by gerrymandering. The next two to four years is the time for the GOP to reform itself, get back to basics, quit asking 'What Would Reagan Do?' (I loved him too, but it's a different time now) and see what big issues Obama will actually reach across the aisle on.

I also hope this is the time the Democrats learn from the mistakes of the Republicans during their control years. I hope they reform themselves too. But if in January 2009, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd still hold their Chair positions, I'll just have to brace for two more years of the Same Old Same Old.

10% approval, Nancy. 10% approval, Harry. Clean thine houses, for the good of the country.

Back & Forth

BIDEN: He challenges her on small-town values by plugging Scranton.

PALIN: Extra credit to a group of third-graders for watching the debate.

There's the Alaskan charm that the McCain camp has muzzled.



After the first debate, I got the feeling McCain dislikes Obama. This debate's almost over and I think Biden and Palin will have no such ill feelings.

Sub-Prime Mortgages

PALIN: "Darn right" there was corruption with predatory lending. I think "John McCain & I" will get old if she says it every four sentences.

BIDEN: Obama warned us about sub-prime mortages. Really? I'm sure it's in a transcript somewhere, but no one trumpeted on this. So far it's been clear Joe's tack is going to be to attack McCain on every answer.

PALIN: Barack voted against tax cuts 94 times. I wonder if that's true.

VP Debate beginning

Joe biden has a gracious and detailed opening statement, and Sarah Palin responds with a competant answer, both hitting a few talking points. And we're off.