50 Things I Learned from the Vice President Debate

"You're lucky Tony Horton taught me to respect to my elders."

1.  I love that the first question is about Benghazi. "Wasn't this a massive intelligence failure?"
2.  I really wish it wasn't CNN I recorded.  These dials at the bottom are going to bug the heck out of me.
3.  Biden said we'll find the men who killed Chris Stevens and "bring them to justice" (a favorite Bush phrase), but spends the rest of his answer bashing Romney.
4.  Ryan points out our ambassador in Paris has marine guards, why not our ambassador in Benghazi? "This is becoming more troubling by the day."
5.  Ryan answering each point Biden brought up. "We're watching the unraveling of the Obama foreign policy."
6.  I already can't wait for the Bad Lip-Read YouTube video.
7.  Biden knows he's on split-screen, keeping smiling, smirking, moving around, now Biden interrupts with "malarkey". "These guys bet against America all the time."
8.  Biden just threw the intelligence community under the bus, says it's their fault they blamed the YouTube video.  Then Biden says "we were never told they wanted more security."  Um, maybe Biden wasn't told, but the State Department was definitely told. Several times. Wow.
9.  Raddatz cuts off Ryan to talk about Iran, asks them to be specific about how effective a military strike would be.  Ryan talks up the sanctions against Iran but says Russia watered down the most recent round.  Says the administration has no credibility on Iran.
10. Biden laughs, says Russia and China, all of our allies wouldn't have gone with the Republican plan for sanctions.  Says the US and Israeli intelligence agree that Iran is a ways away from getting a nuclear weapon.
11. Ryan points out how Obama didn't meet with world leaders on Day 1 of the UN meetings but went on a talk show.  Raddatz interjects to say "You both saw Netanyahu draw the red line on the bomb."
12. Biden's making some giant cheesy face over there.  Says Netanyahu has been his friend for 39 years, says Obama talks to Bibi as much as anyone. Says this is "a bunch of stuff." Irish for malarkey. Says Iran is more isolated today than we took office.
13. Ryan starts to retort and Biden about splits a gut.
14. Ryan calls Iran the world's largest sponsor of terrorism, says they call America the Great Satan.
15. Biden says big nations can't bluff, this president doesn't bluff.
16. Raddatz switched to the economy, points out the unemployment just below 8% for the first time in 43 months, when Obama had promised the stimulus money would get it below 6%. "Would both of you level with the American people, can you get unemployment under 6% and when?"
17. Biden: "I don't know when, but we'll get it under 6%." Let's look at what we inherited. 9 million lost jobs, over $1 trillion in wealth lost.  Points out the 47% quote, starts to get redfaced cuz he says Romney's talking about his mom and dad. Namedrops Grover Norquist. Says we're "hemorraging" tax cuts for the super wealthy.
18. Ryan points out to Biden the unemployment rate in Scranton PA is 10% now when it was 8.5% when Obama took office. Biden about freaks out, but Raddatz insists he lets Ryan give his answer.  Ryan shares personal story about Romney helping family friend out with their son's college. He cares about 100% of the people in this country. Regarding the 47% quote, the VP knows the right words don't always come out.  First real laugh-line.
19. Biden says "But I always mean what I say!" Cue the clip of Biden saying "There gonna put y'all back in chains."
20. Ryan points out when they control, their party controlled WH and both parts of Congress. Biden tsks.  He interrupts, "Martha, Martha, my FRIEND...!"  I'd hate to see how Biden treats his enemies.  Biden gets in a good point about Ryan himself asking for some of the stimulus money for some of his constituents.
21. Ryan asks if it was a good idea to spend taxpayer dollars on windmills in China or luxury cars in Finland, to borrow money from China.
22. Biden laughs it off, says Moody called it a model. Ryan asks where the 5 million in green jobs are, but that's when Raddatz says "I want to move on."
23. Medicare and entitlements. Ryan: "Medicare and Social Security are going bankrupt. We need them. My grandmother moved in with us when she had Alzheimer's and Medicare and SS were there for her." Says we need to reform it for my generation. Obamacare took $716 billion out of Medicare; we'll put it back. Now he'll talk about vouchers... (Holy cow, Biden has a giant shark grin. Reminds me of those Alice in Wonderland drawings.)
24. Biden: "Who do you trust? Me, or a guy who wanted to raise Medicare costs $6400 a year?"
25. Ryan says he knows Biden "under diress" to do well after Obama's debate, but says we'll be better served if we don't keep interrupting each other.  Biden then interrupts Ryan's next answer about eight times.
26. I think I'd like to see all of Martha Raddatz's questions lined up together. Pretty sure most of them aren't getting answered.
27. Biden avoided talking about raising benefit age, Ryan's getting more specific about their plan, Biden then trashes their plan.  Ryan says this is what politicans do when they don't have their own plan.  Yeah, I can see why both sides say they won.  Biden is full of passion and energy and deflecting everything back to Romney.  Ryan's holding his own, not getting flustered.
28. Can you imagine if this Biden had been the one who showed up for the 2008 VP debate?
29. Biden just treating with Ryan with utter contempt.
30. Raddatz switches to defense. Biden and Raddatz not letting Ryan finish his sentences. "Do we believe in peace through strength; you bet we do."
31. Ryan points out they agree with Obama's 2014 withdrawal in Afghanistan. Talks about the comparisons of his visits there in 2002 and 2012.
32. Biden says he's been to Afghanistan and Iraq 20 times. "We decimated Al-Qaeda central, we killed Osama bin Laden." It is the responsibility of the Afghans to take over their security. "We are leaving in 2014. Period."
33. Raddatz asks Ryan what conditions would cause military to stay in 2014. "We don't want to stay." Repeats "the unravelling of the Obama foreign policy."
34. Raddatz asks about the surge numbers and Biden gets snippy with her.
35. The US assisted rebels in Libya, why not in Syria? Biden says the last thing we need is another ground war. (Um, so why DID we assist the rebels in Libya, and why did we send troops to the Jordan border?)
36. After Ryan gives his answer on what they'd do differently, Biden says he didn't answer what they'd do differently.
37. Remember how the post-debate talk from Obama's camp was dismissive of Romney's debate "performance"? They can't possibly go back to that line after Biden's guffawing and gesticulating all night.
38. Raddatz wants to return it home. Biden and Ryan are both Catholic. "What role has your religion played in your views on abortion?" Ryan: "My faith informs me we need to take care of the vulnerable."
39. Ryan just said the Romney administration would oppose abortion except for cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother, but I'm pretty sure earlier this week, Romney said he wasn't going to go after abortion as president.
40. Biden's suddenly calmer, with a quieter gravelly voice. He says he accepts his church's position on when life begins, and he accepts it personally, but he refuses to impose that on other people. "I just fundamentally disagree with my friend."
41. I'm starting to think Biden doesn't know what the word "friend" means.
42. Ryan's making it sound like they'd want Roe v Wade overturned. Biden points out this election is about who gets to appoint the next two Supreme Court justices. Biden says they'd pick justices with an open mind, without an agenda. Ryan: "Was there a litmus test on them?" Biden: "No litmus test."
43. For some reason I just remembered how Biden made Samuel Alito's wife cry at Alito's hearing before his nomination.
44. Raddatz brings up the negative campaigning. "At the end of the day, are you ever embarrassed by the tone?" Biden finds a way to bring up the 47% quote again, but says he's sure both sides wish they didn't have these giant anonymous PACs saying scurrilous things. He almost called Gov. Romney his friend but caught himself.
45. Ryan says Obama's turned "Hope and Change" into "Attack, Blame and Defame." Ryan rattles off broken promises of the Obama campaign. Leaders run to problems to fix problems, but Obama's never put a credible solution on the table. He doesn't have a plan; he has a speech.
46. Biden doesn't address anything Ryan said, just rattles off all the damage the Ryan budget plan would do.
47. Raddatz asks what you could give to this country "as a man, as a human being that no one else could?"  As a human being?  As opposed to a Venus flytrap?
48. Biden whining about time when he's ahead by 90 seconds. "Look at my record; it's all about the middle class."
49. Biden closing statement, thanks Martha, the college. Starts by blaming Bush, goes back to taking offense on the 47% comment, "he's talking about my mother and father." I think Biden is losing his voice.
50. Ryan thanks Martha, the college, and Joe. He looks right at the camera for his closing statement, and those eyes... I see why the Paul Ryan Gosling meme took off. "At the time we have a job crisis, wouldn't it be nice to have a job creator in the White House?" "We will not blame others for the next four years; we will take responsbility."

And we're done.

RNC Winners & Losers

Now that the three days of conventioning are done for the Republicans, let's see what the aftermath holds.

WINNER - Women - Ann Romney, Condi Rice, Kelly Ayotte, Nikki Haley, Mia Love, Mary Fallin, Susana Martinez, Kerry Healy... Several women speakers for the GOP and most of them did a great job.  It just emphasized how weak the "war on women" mantra is.

LOSER - Vice-Presidential short-lists - Rob Portman and Tim Pawlenty, who'd been considered the top two candidates for the veep spot, came out with awkward jokes and speeches that easily eliminated them from the 2016.

WINNER - RNC Organizers - The three-day affair was well-produced, tightly-run, and as good an event as the GOP could have hoped for.

LOSER - RNC Rules Committee - Last-second rule changes to silence Ron Paul delegates will not soon be forgotten.  I know many Republicans were upset and felt hijacked when states that voted for Romney but the elected delegates were actually Paul supporters, but they can't be happy with the shocking power-grab that took place that first night.  I know in Utah, the election over national delegates is going to be much more closely contested.

WINNER - 2016 - If Romney loses the election, this past week has shown the Republicans have a deep diverse bench.  It's almost jarring that the 2011 freak-show was what it was when you consider who else is in the party.  Most of the women I mentioned above, plus Rubio, Christie, Cruz, and Ryan are in great positions.  Also, there's a little documentary out right now called 2016, the most successful right-leaning doc ever.

LOSER - 2012 - The Obama-Romney race has thus far been the most oddly disconnected gaffe-obsessed non-informative race in history.  And the mud's only going to get slung harder from here.  It's been dog-on-the-roof/Obama-eats-dog silliness.  I expect the Democrats to mount a large anti-LDS push soon. (Not the Democrats. An "independent SuperPAC.")

WINNER - CSPAN - Showing all the speeches in full is great for someone like me.  I could turn it on in the background while I was working.  No cutting way to talking-head pundits during actual speeches.

LOSER - MSNBC - Where to start?  They had a narrative they wanted to push, and they did it.  They did their best to paint the GOP as racist but they were the only ones to not show Artur Davis's speech.  Everything anyone said at the convention, you had an MSNBC pundit twisting like a pretzel factory worker that what they said was codified racism.  Chris Matthews has never looked angrier or frumpier.  Any Republican guest they could get on the show, they'd berate and shout at. (Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker handled the Sharpton-Schultz-Matthews gamut quite well.)  And yet, Chuck Todd let it slip that the Democrats wish they were as diverse as the Republicans.

WINNER - Mia Love - She was behind in last week's polls to overthrow Jim Matheson, but donations to her campaign skyrocketed immediately after her speech.  If she wins, she'll be the first black Republican congresswoman in history.  And she's a Mormon.

LOSER - Todd Akin - Right after he won the GOP nomination, he said the dumbest phrase of the year. "Legitimate rape"?  No one wants him to stay in the race.  Well, except he's tied with Claire McCaskill in the polls.  Wow, how bad a senator is Claire McCaskill?

WINNER - Clint Eastwood - Yeah, I said it.  I watched his speech.  He was employing a comic device, and some of it was funny.  Some of it may have made him wished he wasn't ad-libbing.  Republicans love him; some Democrats still do.  Some far-lefties just overplayed their hand. (Ebert called it "sad and pathetic." Really?)  Eastwood's name brought ratings, and hey, he has a movie opening next month, not to mention inspired a new internet meme.  You could call him a loser if you're approaching it from a potential future Oscar nominations angle.

LOSER - Chuck Norris - No longer the most famous actor willing to throw himself behind conservative candidates.  See also Jon Voight.

WINNER - Mike Huckabee - I think the last of the lingering wounds of the 2008 primary race were healed by Huck's speech.  And Huck deserves to have his radio show be the one that finally topples Rush Limbaugh.

LOSER - Sarah Palin - She wasn't invited to the convention, and then Fox News cancelled their interviews with her.  Her future is reality shows and punditry, but her political career looks dead.

WINNER - Ann Romney - Most potential first-lady speeches buoy their husbands.  I remember Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain in 2008, and Laura Bush, and Tipper Gore... I can't say Teresa Heinz Kerry did her husband any favors.  Ann did her job well, and if someone as likable as her loves Mitt, why can't we?

LOSER - Jon Huntsman Jr. - Big mistake by him to refuse to attend the convention and condemn the party.  He could have worked on changing from within, and he's quite skilled at giving speeches (much better than he is at debating).  I can tell you he's alienated a lot of Republicans in Utah, which is too bad. He would've made a good senator.

WINNER - Jeb Bush - The video with 41 and 43 was warmly received, but the former Florida governor came in person and he did great.  I could hear hearts breaking everywhere that he wasn't the Bush that ran for president in 2000.  I know I've thought about it more than once.

LOSER - Foreign policy - It was barely addressed over the past three days, and John McCain pumped us with fear that Syria and Iran need to be dealt with immediately.  Shoot, we could be in four wars this time next year?

WINNER - Paul Ryan on TV - Great speaker, photogenic, charming, knows how to deliver a phrase. His faded Obama poster line was great.  The rhetoric is there.

LOSER - Paul Ryan on paper - He voted for all those government-increasing bills he now decries.

WINNER - The theme of "are you better off than you were four years ago?"

LOSER - The way-overplayed theme of "we did build it!"

WINNER - Mitt's human side - Mitt Romney, you can tell, is an introvert and not blessed with that natural political ability of instantly connecting with large groups of people.  But having character witnesses speak for him revealed a man humble about the nice things he does.  It's hard not to be moved by the friendship he struck with the boy dying of cancer.

LOSER - Mitt's speech - It was no more specific than Obama's "hope and change" speech from 2008, but Obama's didn't have to be.  I think Mitt needed to do more with it, have something for people to be talking about through the weekend.  I'm not going to remember much beyond the story of his dad giving his mom a rose every day.

GOP VP InTrade Watch - 7/6/12

From Intrade as of 7/6/12:

1. Rob Portman - 31%
2. Tim Pawlenty - 18.4%
3. Marco Rubio - 9.9%
4. Bobby Jindal - 6.3%
5. John Thune - 5.2%
6. Paul Ryan - 4.5%
7. Condoleeza Rice - 3.5%
8. Kelly Ayotte - 3%
9. Chris Christie - 2.5%
10. Cathy McMorris Rogers - 2.3%


There's a clear first and second place.  I think Rubio's stock has taken a hit with the is-he-or-isn't-he story of his vetting.  He just seems too young.  He might help with some Latino voters, and he'd be a stark contrast in a debate with Joe Biden, but he looks like he's 32.  Too young, I say.

Portman and Pawlenty is a battle between vanilla and white bread.  The Romney camapign thus far seem to be a taking a Hippocratic path in vice-presidential consideration.  First, let the nomination do no harm.  Portman should help clinch Ohio, a swing state, but then what?  Also, Pawlenty, who in hind-sight dropped out of the presidential race too early, may be able to help in the north, but really, it's so early.

I don't think Jindal's going to get it for similar reason to Rubio.  Nice, ethnic, but too young.  Thune and Ryan also seem like safe guys to partner with Romney.  Rice would be risky but interesting.  Risky in that she bridges back to the Bush Administration, but interesting in that she could help shore up Romney's foreign cred, and Rice is one of the few Bush Admin people who still has decent approval ratings.  Plus in politics, symbolism matters.  History-making matters.  She could be not only the first female vice-president but the first black female in either of the top two posts in the nation.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 12/10

From InTrade, based on Bid%:

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21.9%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 19%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.2%
4. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6.7%
5. (8) Mitch Daniels - 6.5%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 5.8%
7. (10) Haley Barbour - 4.3%
8. (-) Mike Pence - 4.1%
9. (7) Newt Gingrich - 4%
10.(6) Jeb Bush - 4%

Rising: Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence
Falling: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan (9)

I should point out that Romney's percentage has dipped and Palin's has increased since last month, and it wouldn't surprise me if in a month or two, she passes him. Thune's percentage has also dipped. I'm not really sure why he's had so much support early from this site, but it's looking like much is going to hinge on that first GOP debate.