GOP VP InTrade Watch - 7/6/12

From Intrade as of 7/6/12:

1. Rob Portman - 31%
2. Tim Pawlenty - 18.4%
3. Marco Rubio - 9.9%
4. Bobby Jindal - 6.3%
5. John Thune - 5.2%
6. Paul Ryan - 4.5%
7. Condoleeza Rice - 3.5%
8. Kelly Ayotte - 3%
9. Chris Christie - 2.5%
10. Cathy McMorris Rogers - 2.3%


There's a clear first and second place.  I think Rubio's stock has taken a hit with the is-he-or-isn't-he story of his vetting.  He just seems too young.  He might help with some Latino voters, and he'd be a stark contrast in a debate with Joe Biden, but he looks like he's 32.  Too young, I say.

Portman and Pawlenty is a battle between vanilla and white bread.  The Romney camapign thus far seem to be a taking a Hippocratic path in vice-presidential consideration.  First, let the nomination do no harm.  Portman should help clinch Ohio, a swing state, but then what?  Also, Pawlenty, who in hind-sight dropped out of the presidential race too early, may be able to help in the north, but really, it's so early.

I don't think Jindal's going to get it for similar reason to Rubio.  Nice, ethnic, but too young.  Thune and Ryan also seem like safe guys to partner with Romney.  Rice would be risky but interesting.  Risky in that she bridges back to the Bush Administration, but interesting in that she could help shore up Romney's foreign cred, and Rice is one of the few Bush Admin people who still has decent approval ratings.  Plus in politics, symbolism matters.  History-making matters.  She could be not only the first female vice-president but the first black female in either of the top two posts in the nation.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Post-CPAC

Based on Bid%

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 24%
2. (6) Mitch Daniels - 11.4%
3. (3) Sarah Palin - 11.1%
4. (5) Tim Pawlenty - 8.8%
5. (4) Mike Huckabee - 8.5%
6. (7) Jon Huntsman - 5.2%
7. (8) Newt Gingrich - 4.5%
8. (2) John Thune - 4%
9. (10) Haley Barbour - 3.1%
10. (9) - Michelle Bachmann - 2.9%

Rising: Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels
Falling: John Thune

I don't remember hearing anything about John Thune's appearance at CPAC, but maybe that's exactly why his stock plummeted. Now Mitch Daniels is the hot ticket, and if I had some extra cash, I'd short-sell him. Seems like Romney's hanging on to front-runner status, and while I get the feeling most Republicans want someone different, they'll rally around if there's no better alternative. It's early enough in the process that they're looking around for that alternative.

Donald Trump (1.7%), Rom Paul (1.6%) and Rudy Guiliani (1.5%) aren't getting any traction yet. GOP stars that have insisted they aren't running are staying out of the top ten as well, like Chris Christie (1.7%), Jeb Bush (1.1%), Rick Perry (1%) and Marco Rubio (.3%).

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 1/11

The latest InTrade poll on the Republican nominee for president in 2012, based on Bid%.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 13%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.7%
4. (6) Tim Pawlenty - 8.8%
5. (4) Mike Huckabee - 8.4%
6. (5) Mitch Daniels - 7.9%
7. (9) Newt Gingrich - 4.2%
8. (8) Mike Pence - 3.1%
9. (7) Haley Barbour - 2%
10. (-) Chris Christie - 1.8%

Rising: Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels
Falling: Sarah Palin, Haley Barbour, Jeb Bush (10)

Sarah Palin has taken a hit in the aftermath of the Tucson shooting. She was at 19% last month.

Tim Pawlenty is pacing himself nicely, about what Huckabee was doing in 2007.

There are seem to be many Republicans who are positioning themselves for 2016, assuming the GOP nominee loses in 2012. They include Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Jon Huntsman, Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry.

A recent Iowa caucus poll had their top five as:

Mike Huckabee - 24%
Mitt Romney - 19%
Sarah Palin - 11%
Newt Gingrich - 8%
Tim Pawlenty - 4%

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 12/10

From InTrade, based on Bid%:

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21.9%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 19%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.2%
4. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6.7%
5. (8) Mitch Daniels - 6.5%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 5.8%
7. (10) Haley Barbour - 4.3%
8. (-) Mike Pence - 4.1%
9. (7) Newt Gingrich - 4%
10.(6) Jeb Bush - 4%

Rising: Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence
Falling: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan (9)

I should point out that Romney's percentage has dipped and Palin's has increased since last month, and it wouldn't surprise me if in a month or two, she passes him. Thune's percentage has also dipped. I'm not really sure why he's had so much support early from this site, but it's looking like much is going to hinge on that first GOP debate.