GOP VP InTrade Watch - 7/6/12

From Intrade as of 7/6/12:

1. Rob Portman - 31%
2. Tim Pawlenty - 18.4%
3. Marco Rubio - 9.9%
4. Bobby Jindal - 6.3%
5. John Thune - 5.2%
6. Paul Ryan - 4.5%
7. Condoleeza Rice - 3.5%
8. Kelly Ayotte - 3%
9. Chris Christie - 2.5%
10. Cathy McMorris Rogers - 2.3%


There's a clear first and second place.  I think Rubio's stock has taken a hit with the is-he-or-isn't-he story of his vetting.  He just seems too young.  He might help with some Latino voters, and he'd be a stark contrast in a debate with Joe Biden, but he looks like he's 32.  Too young, I say.

Portman and Pawlenty is a battle between vanilla and white bread.  The Romney camapign thus far seem to be a taking a Hippocratic path in vice-presidential consideration.  First, let the nomination do no harm.  Portman should help clinch Ohio, a swing state, but then what?  Also, Pawlenty, who in hind-sight dropped out of the presidential race too early, may be able to help in the north, but really, it's so early.

I don't think Jindal's going to get it for similar reason to Rubio.  Nice, ethnic, but too young.  Thune and Ryan also seem like safe guys to partner with Romney.  Rice would be risky but interesting.  Risky in that she bridges back to the Bush Administration, but interesting in that she could help shore up Romney's foreign cred, and Rice is one of the few Bush Admin people who still has decent approval ratings.  Plus in politics, symbolism matters.  History-making matters.  She could be not only the first female vice-president but the first black female in either of the top two posts in the nation.

GOP New Hampshire Debate

I watched the debate, and then I watched pieces again, and I'd still like to read a transcript to see if there was some substance I missed. The platform did not allow for much. When there are seven candidates, and CNN's John King wants all of their answers in 30 second bits, well, how can you really go into policy with that? King might as well have said, "We are only seeking soundbites, catch-phrases, and plattitudes. Let's get started."

How'd they do?

7. RICK SANTORUM - Of all the candidates, he's the one who has to answer the question, "Why are you here again?" And he didn't.

6. HERMAN CAIN - I'd read he was a bright spot in the last GOP debate, but he struck me more as a guy who had some talking points and got lost when he had to veer from them.

5. NEWT GINGRICH - Newt's a good talking-head on cable, but in the debate, did he really listen to some of his answers? At one point he supported the return of McCarthyism when it comes to Muslims, and at another point he made it sound like we'd be living like the Jetsons right now if the "private sector" ran NASA instead of the government.

4. TIM PAWLENTY - He had his moments, but this night will most be remembered for him shying away from Mitt Romney when confronted about his coining of the new phrase "Obamneycare." Gee, it's a neat word but he came off as an internet troll who just had his identity discovered by the celebrity he's been bad-mouthing.

3. RON PAUL - Paul is not afraid to answer any question, and he never sounds like he's trying to be careful about how he answers it. That's why, whether I agree with him or not, I know I'm not going to wince from the pain of watching him tiptoe or tap-dance around an answer the way most other inevitably will. On Afghanistan: "Our national security is not enhanced by our presense there."

But half of the stuff he wants to do, you just know he will never get done. I think he's a symbolic candidate, one where he hopes that some of his ideas might catch hold in the psyche and imagination of a candidate who actually has a chance. I'm sure he'd love to talk Romney's ear off about the Federal Reserve.

2. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Low expectations for her, and she passed them. Don't take that as "She was tremendous!" but she seemed comfortable, she has a backstory that's interesting. (23 foster kids?) She essentially made the case that a Sarah Palin candidacy is unnecessary.

1. MITT ROMNEY - He had the polish of a co-host. Welcome to my debate stage, fellas, can I get you something to drink? He had his own stumbles, but he's the front-runner and no one laid a finger on him.

Now, Hillary Clinton won the first six or eight debates she had with Obama and company, so in the long run, this debate won't mean much. I will say it's nice to have a Forbes-Keyes-Bauer-free stage. I look forward to seeing varied formats in the future. It'll be interesting to see Jon Huntsman join, and what might happen if Palin actually joins.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Hopefuls

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 23.9%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 15.3%
3. (6) Jon Huntsman - 12%
4. (3) Mitch Daniels - 11%
5. (6) Mike Huckabee - 7.5%
6. (6) Sarah Palin - 5.2%
7. (5) Donald Trump - 4.4%
8. (10) Newt Gingrich - 4.1%
9. (4) Michelle Bachmann - 4%
10.(-) Herman Cain - 3%

Rising: Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain
Falling: Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, Michelle Bachmann, Haley Barbour

Haley Barbour dropped off because he announced he won't be running for president.

The first GOP presidential debate arguably helped Herman Cain the most, who went from "has no chance" to cracking the top ten here. Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Gary Johnson did not, and Tim Pawlenty slipped a little.

Mitt Romney's still top dog, but it seems like a lot of voters are anxiously looking elsewhere. Flavors of the month rise and fall, and Trump and Bachmann had their fun but now they're sliding off. Huntsman and Daniels will have their turn.

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Hopefuls

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 26.9%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 16%
3. (3) Mitch Daniels - 8.5%
4. (7) Michelle Bachmann - 7.6%
5. (-) Donald Trump - 6.1%
6. (5) Mike Huckabee - 5%
6. (9) Jon Huntsman - 5%
6. (4) Sarah Palin - 5%
9. (8) Haley Barbour - 4.5%
10.(6) Newt Gingrich - 3.9%

Rising: Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann, Donald Trump
Falling: Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie

If Sarah Palin plans to run for president, she'd better do it soon. Michelle Bachmann is ramping up her efforts and getting the supporters, and Palin looks less relevant with each passing week.

Meanwhile Mike Huckabee is another sideline-sitter who needs to decide if he's going to do it or not. He fares well in the occassional poll, but he also looks like one who doesn't want to abandon his cushy Fox News job for another run, even if it's to just block Romney.

Mitt Romney is making the trips and speeches and is absorbing more and more the front-runner mantle. Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels, methinks, really need the first debate to truly get their momentum going.

And Donald Trump, well, he's making headlines with the birther thing. Maybe it's all an elaborate stunt to boost the ratings for Celebrity Apprentice.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Nominee

InTrade's changed their look.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 24.6%
2. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 18.1%
3. (2) Mitch Daniels - 10.2%
4. (3) Sarah Palin - 6.2%
5. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6%
6. (7) Newt Gingrich - 5.7%
7. (10) Michelle Bachmann - 4.3%
8. (9) Haley Barbour - 4.2%
9. (6) Jon Huntsman - 4%
10. (-) Chris Christie - 2.8%

Rising: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, Chris Christie
Falling: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, John Thune (8)

Thune officially declared he wouldn't run for president, so he's dropped off. Christie has said repeatedly he won't run, but he still lands in the top ten with many a conservative hoping the New Jersey governor will change his mind.

There seem to be three camps right now. Camp #1 is for Mitt. Safe, front-runner, he's been vetted, he's good on the economy. Camp #2 is for the anti-Mitt, looking for someone with more charisma but still decent credentials, and right now their hopes seem to be with Tim Pawlenty. Camp #3 is the Tea Party, and as Palin's stock falls, Bachmann's rises.

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Post-CPAC

Based on Bid%

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 24%
2. (6) Mitch Daniels - 11.4%
3. (3) Sarah Palin - 11.1%
4. (5) Tim Pawlenty - 8.8%
5. (4) Mike Huckabee - 8.5%
6. (7) Jon Huntsman - 5.2%
7. (8) Newt Gingrich - 4.5%
8. (2) John Thune - 4%
9. (10) Haley Barbour - 3.1%
10. (9) - Michelle Bachmann - 2.9%

Rising: Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels
Falling: John Thune

I don't remember hearing anything about John Thune's appearance at CPAC, but maybe that's exactly why his stock plummeted. Now Mitch Daniels is the hot ticket, and if I had some extra cash, I'd short-sell him. Seems like Romney's hanging on to front-runner status, and while I get the feeling most Republicans want someone different, they'll rally around if there's no better alternative. It's early enough in the process that they're looking around for that alternative.

Donald Trump (1.7%), Rom Paul (1.6%) and Rudy Guiliani (1.5%) aren't getting any traction yet. GOP stars that have insisted they aren't running are staying out of the top ten as well, like Chris Christie (1.7%), Jeb Bush (1.1%), Rick Perry (1%) and Marco Rubio (.3%).

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 1/11

The latest InTrade poll on the Republican nominee for president in 2012, based on Bid%.

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 13%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.7%
4. (6) Tim Pawlenty - 8.8%
5. (4) Mike Huckabee - 8.4%
6. (5) Mitch Daniels - 7.9%
7. (9) Newt Gingrich - 4.2%
8. (8) Mike Pence - 3.1%
9. (7) Haley Barbour - 2%
10. (-) Chris Christie - 1.8%

Rising: Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels
Falling: Sarah Palin, Haley Barbour, Jeb Bush (10)

Sarah Palin has taken a hit in the aftermath of the Tucson shooting. She was at 19% last month.

Tim Pawlenty is pacing himself nicely, about what Huckabee was doing in 2007.

There are seem to be many Republicans who are positioning themselves for 2016, assuming the GOP nominee loses in 2012. They include Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Jon Huntsman, Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry.

A recent Iowa caucus poll had their top five as:

Mike Huckabee - 24%
Mitt Romney - 19%
Sarah Palin - 11%
Newt Gingrich - 8%
Tim Pawlenty - 4%

InTrade Watch on 2012 GOP Presidential Hopefuls - 12/10

From InTrade, based on Bid%:

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 21.9%
2. (2) Sarah Palin - 19%
3. (3) John Thune - 11.2%
4. (5) Mike Huckabee - 6.7%
5. (8) Mitch Daniels - 6.5%
6. (4) Tim Pawlenty - 5.8%
7. (10) Haley Barbour - 4.3%
8. (-) Mike Pence - 4.1%
9. (7) Newt Gingrich - 4%
10.(6) Jeb Bush - 4%

Rising: Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence
Falling: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan (9)

I should point out that Romney's percentage has dipped and Palin's has increased since last month, and it wouldn't surprise me if in a month or two, she passes him. Thune's percentage has also dipped. I'm not really sure why he's had so much support early from this site, but it's looking like much is going to hinge on that first GOP debate.

Latest Vice-Presidential rankings

Here's where the latest VP Rankings are on InTrade.com.

DEMOCRAT VP NOMINEE

1. (4) Evan Bayh - 30%
2. (3) Tim Kaine - 18%
3. (1) Kathleen Sebilius - 15%
4. (5) Joseph Biden - 12%
5. (--) Wesley Clark - 10.9%
6. (6) Chuck Hagel - 7%
7. (2) Hillary Clinton - 5.3%
8. (8) Bill Richardson - 4%
9. (10) Dick Gephardt - 4%
10. (9) Jack Reed - 3.9%

Fallen off: Claire McCaskill

Wow, where did James Webb go? That star burned out prematurely. But if Obama loses and he wants to run in 2012, he'd probably do well. Joe Biden is the conventional-wisdom choice to shore up foreign policy on the ticket, but to be about change and not to look too young next to his VP, I can see why Bayh and Kaine are the top two. Plus if they have a chance of swinging their normally red states Obama's way, well, they did their job.

John Edwards is still at 2%. Heh heh.

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REPUBLICAN VP NOMINEE

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 33.1%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 22.7%
3. (-) Tom Ridge - 10.4%
4. (8) Sarah Palin - 10.1%
5. (-) Joe Lieberman - 9.4%
6. (6) Eric Cantor - 7.3%
7. (4) Charlie Crist - 6.3%
8. (10) Bobby Jindal - 5.3%
9. (7) Rob Portman - 4.6%
10. (3) Mike Huckabee - 4.1%

Fallen off: Carly Fiorina, John Thune

McCain's solid on foreign policy, but he's not that good with domestic issues or a TelePrompter, hence Romney being there. I just don't see it. I see McCain picking a buddy. "They" say Pawlenty and Ridge aren't conservative enough, but McCain knows that wing of the party isn't going anywhere. I'd say Joe Lieberman has a legit shot at being on the ticket. Bobby Jindal has categorically said he will not be VP, so he should really drop back down. Still haven't seen Palin speak. Maybe I should YouTube her...