BetFair's 2016 GOP Presidential Candidate Watch

I'm glad BetFair exists. It gives us a little better idea where candidates may stand, as people put money on nominees. So how does it look right now?

1. Jeb Bush - 3.35 (12-5)
2. Marco Rubio - 7.8 (7-1)
3. Rand Paul - 8.2 (7-1)
4. Mitt Romney - 8.8 (8-1)
5. Scott Walker - 10.5 (9-1)
6. Chris Christie - 11 (10-1)
7. Ted Cruz - 15.5 (14-1)
8. Rick Perry - 18 (17-1)
9. Mike Huckabee - 21 (20-1)
10. Paul Ryan - 29 (27-1)

Next five:
Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, Susana Martinez, Ben Carson, Rick Santorum

I gave my gut feeling on this topic a couple days ago, so it's nice to see confirmation on a lot of the positioning. It's been interesting to watch the Tea Party 4 (Paul, Rubio, Cruz, Lee) go four different directions. Lee's the only one clearly not running for president. Paul and Rubio have been tempering their responses to various issues, while Cruz is content to flamethrow. So far, the approaches by Paul and Rubio have been more effective.

Wisconsin governor Scott Walker's having a good showing early. He may find running too tempting a proposition to pass up.

The Inevitable President Hillary, and Other 2016 Speculations

I can't say I learned anything new from Hillary Clinton's interview with Diane Sawyer. Hillary said she hasn't made up her mind if she's running for President in 2016. This, of course, is a lie, but it's a lie we dance around every mid-term. 2006, 2010, 2014 are the years for midterm swings in Congress, but they are also the years for people who have every intention of running for President to issue denials that they've made up their mind.

The remark that's received the most publicity is the one about her and Bill being "dead broke" when she left the White House. Yeah, right. Somehow they managed to make millions back. Even Chelsea made $600,000 from NBC for filing three reports. This is actually one good reason why a Republican needs to win in 2016. Do you value the press? Do you want the media to hold truth to power? They tend to be at their best when a Republican's in office. I predict Years 9-12 of a Democratic Oval Office will further erode the credibility of the Fourth Estate.

Now I actually think Hillary would have been a better President than Obama. She's better at building relationships. We needed him for the history, to help us get over the hump and actually have an African-American as President 150 years after Lincoln. We also needed to not have a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton daisy chain. Now that Obama's been in for two terms, Americans seem to be a little more ready to stomach another President Clinton. It's her election to lose. Of course, so was 2008's.

So maybe Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren will make it interesting on the Democratic side. As for the Republicans, they need their own Obama, that transformative figure that can inspire. Mitt Romney did not inspire. Never mind he was right about Russia and Iraq and several other things. You have to win first.

So who are the 2016 possibilities? Well, let's see.

NO WAY THEY RUN AGAIN

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul. Yes, Mitt won't run again. But I have no doubt he wants to help pick the next nominee.

THEY MIGHT RUN AGAIN

Rick Perry - The Texas governor is wearing glasses now to make himself appear smarter and more stately. Of the ones who ran in 2012, I see him as the most likely to give it another shot. I think this would be a big mistake, but never underestimate Texas.

Rick Santorum - Still a decent chance the social conservative gives it another try. It'd be a huge waste of money if he did.

Mike Huckabee - The host of his own weekly radio and weekend Fox News show will send out feelers to see if he would have a chance. His folksy approach is palatable, but I see 2016 as a year where Republicans do not want an also-ran.

THE "ESTABLISHMENT" NAMES

Jeb Bush - If Americans can stomach the thought of a second Clinton presidency, can they stomach the thought of a third Bush? Jeb's always been seen as the smarter brother, the one that should have run in 2000 had Florida played along. There's also no doubt in my mind he would have been a better president than W.  But Jeb's time has passed.

Chris Christie - The press loved the big guy for a while. But without Mitt Romney to kick around, MSNBC decided to become the Anti-Chris Christie channel. Plus many conservatives don't trust him.

THE LIKELY CANDIDATES

Ted Cruz - The divisive Tea Party hero would certainly be able to draw up passion from his base. He'd face opposition in places like New Hampshire and Michigan who view him as too extreme to win a general election.

Rand Paul - Rand will be an interesting one to watch. He can get some of the Libertarian cred thanks to his dad, some Tea Party cred, and he's shown the ability to breathe fire one day, then play nice with others the next. He'll be vulnerable in some primaries for not being as hawkish as other candidates, but in other primaries, that'll be one of his biggest strengths.

Marco Rubio - The Florida senator would greatly benefit if his friend Jeb would decide not to run and just support him instead. Like Cruz, he'd make history as the first Latino president. He's facing early opposition from the anti-amnesty crowd.

Scott Walker - The Wisconsin governor could be a real factor in 2016. He won a recall challenge handily in 2012 after slashing the state budget, and that emboldened his GOP supporters. He's shrunk the deficit there, so fiscal conservatives love him.

Bobby Jindal - Since his disastrous response to the State of the Union, he's kept his head down in Louisiana, just strengthening his resume. His handling of Hurrican Gustav was far better than how his predecessor had handled Hurricane Katrina. His approval ratings dipped after 2012 but have been coming up this year.

Paul Ryan - He's a national name now thanks to his Vice-Presidential candidacy, though I think many voters will remember he did nothing to move the needle in 2012 and how he let Joe Biden steal his lunch money during the debate.

John Kasich - I'll throw his name out there, because he seems to have built a very solid resume as governor. Kasich served in the US House from 1983-2001. He ran for President in 2000 but did badly and dropped out early to support Bush. He had his own Fox News Channel show for a while, and he worked at Lehman Brothers when the stock market crashed. His political rehabilitation as Ohio governor saw that state become one of the first to show true growth post-crash.

WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN?

There are a few women who could get into this election cycle.

Susanna Martinez - Hey, a twofer! A Latina woman. The New Mexico governor enjoys popularity in her state and has strengthened her bonafides in border security. She could get hit in primaries for New Mexico's low job growth, but between now and 2016 she has time to get that improved.

Nikki Haley - She's South Carolina's first female governor, and she'd be the first Indian American president, should she win. She's young; she's turn 44 in 2016. She attends Methodist and Sikh services, so she has quite a multicultural thing going on.

Mary Fallin - The Oklahoma governor could be tempted to throw her hat into the ring. She's popular at home, she (like Martinez and Haley) should be enjoying her second term as governor when decision-time comes around. She has some personal issues that some could make an issue of, but after Newt ran, that just dwarfs anything any other candidate will ever have to cop to.

Sarah Palin - She won't run, but she'll flirt with the idea through 2016 as she tries to sell a book or score another reality show.

Requiem for Mitt Romney

There was a debate in the 2008 cycle where all the candidates ganged up on Mitt Romney.  John McCain, Rudy Guiliani, Mike Huckabee, etc., all took their shots at him, leaving Romney more than once during the debate to question why all the personal attacks.  When the debate was over, and the candidates shake hands and smile for the camera, none of them would shake Romney's hand.  Rachel Maddow said the other Republicans were acting like mean girls.

I remember that moment, and I remember the faith speech he gave prior to the Iowa caucus.  He didn't want to address his religion so early in the campaign, but with staunch anti-Mormonism from the religious right, stoked by Huckabee's whisper campaign ("Don't they believe Jesus and Satan are brothers?") Romney gave his speech.  He did it in a way that didn't put religious bigotry to rest, but it at least dampened it.  Romney had other problems in 2008, like running as the "social conservative" in the group, but his camp believed the "Mormon question" had hurt him.

Four years later, it didn't matter so much.  Romney had the money and experience to make him a stronger candidate.  Even though the Republicans didn't want him as the nominee, always picking someone else with him as second choice, all the other candidates wilted under the spotlight.  At different points, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum led in the GOP polls.  For all the hand-wringing now, does anyone really believe one of the those five would have done better?

The 2012 cycle took longer, partly due to some dissatisfaction with John McCain wrapping it up so early in 2008, a clearly flawed candidate.  And so Mitt Romney had to play the games one plays in primary politics.  He flanked Perry to the right on immigration.  He had to defend RomneyCare against ObamaCare and explain why what was good for Massachusetts would be disastrous for the nation.  His campaign took turns with attack ads on whoever was the frontrunner, but each and every frontrunner took their best shot on him and couldn't topple him.  It took its toll though.  Perry supporters didn't instantly switch to Romney supporters.  Same with Santorum's or Gingrich's.  Ron Paul supporters never switched to Romney, even if Paul was the one guy on stage he made a point not to attack.

While Romney was finishing them off, the Obama campaign was already planting the seeds.  They followed the playbook of George W. Bush in 2004.  Ironic much?  The Bush team canvassed their states and identified their voters and got them out.  It was about turnout of the base.  They also had to weaken their opponent, so the Bush team went after John Kerry's Vietnam tour with the Swiftboat Veterans.  Kerry never recovered.

The positive campaign the Obama team ran in 2008 wasn't going to work a second time around.  They didn't have the luxury of the high ground.  Plus with Super-PACs in play, neither candidate could keep control of their message.  Who can forget the ad that implied Romney gave a woman cancer?

Romney's strength was his economic prowess, so that's what they went after.  Romney was now Gordon Gekko, an evil corporate raider who destroyed companies and made millions.  The image stuck for enough people.

So what could he have done differently?

1. Tell the truth.  Romney has a certain cavalier attitude toward truth in politics. It's as though he believes everyone's going to lie, and he's here to play the game. Like Survivor.  But it was too easy to look at how he ran for Senate in 1994, how he governed in 2002, how he campaigned in 2008, and how he campaigned in 2012 that made people wonder. "Who is the real Mitt Romney?"  There were answers he'd give in the primary debates where I felt like he was telling the far-right what they wanted to hear but wouldn't really govern that way if elected.

2. Change the Convention order.  It may have seemed like a coup to get Clint Eastwood to speak ("former Republican mayor"), but it shouldn't have been in primetime.  There was a series of speakers who came to the podium one by one and shared brief stories of acts of service or kindness they'd received from Romney.  It not only humanized him but underlined how compassionate a man he could be. It was a side of him the electorate needed to see, and a side he'd never boast of.  It was a side that few people saw, because it didn't happen in primetime.  Instead his own speech wasn't that memorable, and all people could talk about was The Chair.

3. Pick a different Vice-President.  Romney figured he needed a pick to excite the base, so he doubled-down on the economic question and picked Paul Ryan.  Trouble is, Ryan had a budget the Obama team could criticize.  It didn't matter that Obama hasn't had a budget in three years; Ryan's suggestions were full of those that would raise the tax burden on poor and middle-income families.  And if Ryan was a such a fiscal conservative, why did he support Medicare Part-D and TARP and the bailouts?  He was just another white male Republican.

4. Get out of the echo chamber.  Romney was a numbers guy, but the team around him was giving him bad numbers.  "Oh, don't worry about Nate Silver. He's biased.  Look at Rasmussen! Look at our own internal polling."    Romney believed with all his heart on Tuesday he was going to win.  His consultants were charlatans.

5. Campaign for everyone.  How many times did we hear "small business"?  What about the people who don't own a small business?  He needed better articulation on why his plans would help everyone, not just the rich and entrepreneurial.

6. Don't criticize the "other."  The Obama team did a good job of "otherizing" Mitt Romney. He's not one of us.  But Romney fell into the trap when speaking to some wealthy donors, telling them what they wanted to hear.  There's a reason the "47%" comment was leaked in September even though he'd said it in May.  He may or may not personally feel disdain for those who don't pay federal income tax, but hey Fox News portrays them as freeloaders, so let's follow that narrative.  I make a decent living, but once I take my earned income tax credit, child tax credits, charitable deductions, mortgage deduction, and medical expenses deduction, I paid very little federal income tax last year.  I imagine plenty of other families out there making $30, $40, $50, $60,000 a year find themselves in the same boat.  It showed a disconnect.

7. Give a vision for the future.  Obama kept talking about moving "forward." Romney's campaign was more about hearkening back to Reagan's America, a military superpower, a shining beacon on the hill of low taxes and low regulations.  Each president is right or wrong for their time, and Reagan was right for his time.  But fellas, that was thirty years ago.  Nostalgia has never won a campaign.  Maybe Grover Cleveland.

So now the dust has settled, and Romney, unfortunately, rather than fading into the sunset, made some more conference calls to donors and supporters, and had the "gifts" gaffe.  The 2012 election was one of the smallest and shallowest in history, not to mention the most negative.  Big Bird, Binders of Women, "You Didn't Build That", etc.  And the "gifts" comment is a postscript to it.

That one word has emboldened other Republican leaders to condemn him and push him aside, Gov. Bobby Jindal first and foremost.  The fight for 2016 starts now, and the GOP would like a new leader.

Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan.  I don't see Romney settling into an elder statesman role for the party.  Looks like most of the establishment guys are eager to get rid of him.  A lot of "I told you so" columns being written.

Romney never had many friends in the Republican Party.  His selling point was his management style.  His electability.  Now that he lost his election, that his team wasn't as well-managed as the other guy, they might come back to him for money, but that's about it.  The Romney candidacy is going to be like the second term of George W. Bush: something the Republican Party would like to forget ever happened.

67 Things I Learned from the Final Presidential Debate

"Ha ha, Mitt, if you get ahead in Ohio, I've got a drone with your name on it."

1.  Pres. Obama and Gov. Romney have no problem lying right to each other's faces right off the bat. They shook hands with big smiles and both said "Nice to see you again."
2.  Bob Schieffer sets the table nicely for Libya, asking if it was an intelligence failure, was it a policy failure?
3.  First shot of Obama while Romney is giving his answer screams disdain.
4.  Romney gives credit for the president having Bin Laden killed, but talks about the continued spread of al-Qaeda. "We can't kill our way out of this mess."
5.  Obama "My first job is to keep the American people safe, and that's what I've done the past four years.  We ended the war in Iraq." Gets to Libya, says the first three things he did when he heard was to see if they could get our people out safely, make sure we investigate what happened, and then find and bring to justice whoever killed those four men.

6.  Says Romney's all over the map on foreign policy and his strategy wouldn't keep America safe.
7.  Romney says we don't want another Iraq or Afghanistan, says economic development helps with foreign relations, better education, gender equality, etc. We've watched this rising tide of tumult and chaos in the Middle East... and now we get to our first interruption.
8.  Obama says Romney wants the foreign policy of the 1980's, the social policies of the 1950's and the economic policy of the 1920's. (I wonder how long ago that line was written.)  Now he's being condescending "I know you haven't had a chance to execute foreign policy..." (Oh, like you had before you were elected?)  Says Romney's wrong and "all over the map" again.
9.  Back to Romney, says he doesn't concur with what Obama just said, and they don't happen to be accurate. "Attacking me is not an agenda." Ooh, Obama didn't like that one. Obama goes to interrupt again and Romney says "Excuse me" and continues. Says he won't wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia, says he won't give Russia "more flexibility" after the election, he'll give "more backbone."
10. Regarding Iraq, we agreed on a status of forces agreement in Iraq; Obama interrupts and says no, he didn't. (I've already read that Obama fails the fact-check on that one.)

11. Obama says we need to recognize we can't keep doing nation building in these regions, we need to nation-build at home too.
12. Schieffer wants to go into more depth with Syria.
13. Obama said Assad has to go, they've organized sanctions, they've provided relief, but Syrians have to determine their own future.
14. Romney says 30,000 Syrians killed is a humanitarian disaster, also says Syria is Iran's closest ally, so removing Assad is a high priority. Emphasizes we don't want to do military intervention, but we will do everything else we can to help the resistance. I believe Assad must go and will go. We've seen our policy say "Oh, we'll let the UN deal with it." That didn't work. "We'll let Russia deal with it." That didn't work. We need to have a leadership role in this.
15. Obama: "We do have a leadership role." He goes at Romney again like he's the challenger and Romney's the incumbent.

16. Romney: "This has been going on for a year. We should taken a leadership role on this." Wants to arm the resistance.
17. Obama said Romney is basically arguing for what we're already doing in Syria.
18. Schieffer (who's doing great) asks if Obama regrets saying Mubarak has to go when he said it.
19. Obama does not regret it. Says America needs to stand for democracy whereever it may spring. Says Egypt has to abide by their treaty with Israel.
20. Romney says the US has 42 allies around the world, but says nowhere in the world is our influence greater now than it was four years ago. America has the responsibility and privilege of defending freedom around the world.  When people vote, they tend to vote for peace.  Interesting to hear how often Romney uses the word "peace."

21. Romney talks about needing a strong military because we don't know what's coming.  Said terrorism never came up in 2000 debates, but a year later, 9/11 happened.
22. Obama: "America is the world's one indispensible nation." (Huh, I wonder how other countries will take that line.) My plan will rebuild America. We won't reward companies for shipping jobs overseas. We need to reduce our deficit; unfortunately Romney's plan won't do that.  At home and abroad, Romney's proposed wrong and reckless policies. (I think that's the second time he used that phrase.)
23. Romney says he'll fix the economy with five steps. 1. Move toward energy independance. 2. Improve our trade. We can do better, especially in Latin America. Latin America's economy's almost as big as China's. 3. We need trainer programs to improve job skills and have better school. 4. We need a balanced budget. 5. We've got to champion small business.
24. Obama slams Romney's record in Massachusetts on small business. Under my leadership, we improved education.
25. Romney praises Massachusetts' education system. Obama interrupts again to say the good stuff happened before he got there. Romney plows through, says they improved education. (Obama's getting Biden-esque in his interruptions.) Romney says, "That was mine; you got that fact wrong."

26. Obama says the military does not want the extra $2 trillion in spending that Romney's asking for. Military spending has gone up every year under me. We can't spend $5 trillion on tax cuts without naming what deductions we're getting rid of. The math doesn't work. We need to be thinking about capabilities.
27. Romney: "I'm pleased that I've balanced budgets. I've been in business for 25 years. If you didn't balance a budget, you went out of business. I went to the Olympics and balanced the budget there. I went to Massachusetts, balanced the budgets there. The president has yet to balance a budget. I hope I get the opportunity to do so." Our Navy is smaller now than anytime since 1917. We're shrinking through sequestration. Our Air Force is older and smaller. I will not cut our military by a trillion dollars, which is the president's plan.
28. Obama says sequestration will not happen. (Um, it is happening.) Gov. Romney says we have fewer ships in the Navy [FactCheck: Navy was actually smallest under GWB]. Well, we also use fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our military's changed.  "We have these things called aircraft carriers than planes can land on. We have these underwater ships called nuclear submarines..." The Navy isn't a game of Battleship.  (Horses and bayonets would have been a better line if he hadn't kept going and ventured into a-hole territory. Now he's really like the sarcastic challanger trying to get a rise out of the incumbent.) (Marines still use bayonets.)
29. Their approaches telegraph what their internal polling shows, and Obama's being more aggressive here.  Hm...
30. This is a kinder, gentler Romney.  Doesn't want to be rude, wants to be more appealing to women.  Ah, women.  Those delicate flowers who leap like gazelles from a meadow when good manners aren't displayed.

31. Obama says we have the strongest sanctions against Iran in history.
32. Obama's wearing a blue tie and being very appealing to his base. Romney's wearing a red-and-blue striped tie and is tacking to the center.
33. Romney: "When I'm President of the United States, I'll stand with Israel." Finds a nuclear Iran unacceptable. "I laid out a seven-point crippling-sanctions plan for Iran five years ago." Sanctions works, it's working now, I wish they'd been imposed sooner, and they should be increased.  Military action is a LAST resort.
34. Scheiffer asks about the story that the US and Iran are in negotiations. Obama says that appeared in a newspaper; it's not true. Glad Romney's agreeing with us on Iran now. We have to make sure Russia and China agree with us on sanctions.  It's because the world agreed, the sanctions are working. The inspections are intrusive.
35. Romney says Obama showed weakness when he promised in 2008 to meet with Castro, Chavez, Achmadinejad. Then he started this apology tour and created daylight between us and Israel. (Obama bristled at "apology tour" now looks like he can't wait for his turn. But he's not interrupting.) Romney says we need to indict Achmadinejad.

36. Obama: "Nothing Gov. Romney just said is true." Says "apology tour" is not true, and every reporter agrees. When I was negotiating sanctions, you were invested in a Chinese company that used Iranian oil. (Huh?) When I came into office, the world was in crisis and Iran was surging. Now they're weak.
37. Romney: "We're four years closer to a nuclear Iran." Says the reason he calls it an apology tour is becuz you went to the Middle East, flew to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, and by the way, you skipped Israel, and they noticed you skipped Israel. (Romney looking Obama right in the eye for all this.) You said on Arabic TV that America had been "dismissive and derisive." You said America had "dictated" to other nations. America has not dictated to other nations; America has freed other nations from dictators. (Romney drops the mic, leans back.)
38. Obama: "Bob, let me respond. When I was a candidate for office, the first trip I took was to visit our troops. When I went to Israel as a candidate, I didn't take donors, I visited the Holocaust Museum." (This strangely reinforces an image that he sucked up to Israel when campaigning but now ignores them.) I visited sites where Hamas had rained missiles on houses. That's how I used my travels. This is about who's more credible.
39. Schieffer: "What if the Prime Minister of Israel called and said our bombs are on the way to Iran? How would you respond?" Romney says let's not get into hypotheticals because my relationship with Netanyahu is such that I'd never get that call saying bombers are on the way. This is the kind of thing that would have been discussed well before it got to that.
40. Romney: "Back to what the President said." I see Iran closer to a nuclear weapon. I see jihadists continuing to spread. I see Syria with 30,000 dead and Assad still in power. I see North Korea continuing to export nuclear technology. I don't see our influence growing around the world.

41. Obama: "You've been all over the map." (Drink!) You initially opposed a timetable in Afghanistan, now you're for it, but it depends. You said in 2008 you'd ask permission of Pakistan to look for Bin Laden. If I'd asked for permission, we wouldn't have gotten him. I have made decisions that keep the American people safe. (Strong there.)
42. Schieffer: "What do you do if we get to 2014 and Afghanistan isn't ready to take over their own security?" Romney: "We'll be out by the end of 2014. Our troops will come home at that point." We need to recognize what's happening in Pakistan. Some people want us to wash our hands and walk away from them. I don't mean you, Mr. President, but some people. our aid to Pakistan has to be aligned with benchmarks being met.
43. Obama: "When I came into office, we were mired in Iraq and had been drifting in Afghanistan for a decade." Once Iraq War ended, he surged in Afghanistan, and it was as if we'd forgotten why we were there in the first place. There's no reason for Americans to die when Afghans are capable of defending their own country. After a decade of war, it's time to do some nation-building here at home. We should make sure our veterans are getting the care they need, certifications for good jobs.
44. Romney: "We can't let Pakistan fall. There's nuclear weapons there. I don't blame this administration for strained relations with Pakistan. We had to go in to get Bin Laden."
45. Schieffer asks about drones. Romney says he supports the White House's use of drones "entirely."  (Okay, what about the kill list? Nothing? *sigh*) Is Al-Qaeda on its heels? No. Is there tumult in the Middle East? Yes.

46. Obama comfortably takes the serve from Romney, says Americans should be proud of Tunisians when protesting, America stood with them sooner than any other nations. Egypt, we stood with democracy. Attitudes abroad toward America have changed. Al-Qaeda is much weaker than they were when I took office. (Really, when it comes down to it, the foreign policies of Obama and Romney are going to be about 70% the same; that's what I'm getting at this point.)
47. Obama ties it back to domestic issues regarding trade with China. We've won just about every trade complaint we've filed against China. We stood up for steel-workers in Pennsylvania, tire-makers in [insert swing state here].
48. Romney: "It's not government that makes businesses grow." China wants a stable world. they don't want war. If I'm elected, America will be strong.
49. I'm watching Fox News for this debate, which means no dials across the bottom and about 1/4 of the time, we just get the speaker's face instead of split-screen.
50. Romney: "China is already playing a silent trade-war with us and they're winning. We have to say you can't artificially keep your currency, steal our intellectual property, counterfeit our goods, and steal our jobs."

51. Obama: "Gov. Romney's right..." (holy cow, is Obama about to be cordial?)
52. "...and he is familiar with shipping jobs overseas, but you invested in companies that shipped jobs overseas." (Nope. Very few on the left will agree with this, but Obama is being small right now. Not conveying that "I'm the President; I'm above this" air at all.)
53. Obama: "China can be our partner, but we need to be clear with them, we're a Pacific partner. Ships can pass through. We need to do more trade with other countries so China feels more pressure to comply with international standards."
54. Romney: "Again, attacking me is not an agenda for getting more trade." Goes back to the auto industry. My plan for the auto industry was for them to go through bankruptcy, my plan-- [Obama interrupting again] -- had them being able to shed debt, excess costs. I've never said i would liquidate the industry [Obama: "Let's check the transcript!" Sorry, Mr. president, but Candy Crowley isn't moderating this time.]
55. Romney: "The government is investing in companies like Solyndra, which is the wrong way to go. [Obama: "Governor, I--] I'm still speaking. The prviate sector is not going to invest in solar companies [Obama interrupting...]

56. Obama: "Anyone can look this up.  You keep trying to airbrush history. You said you would not provide govt. assistance to the auto industry even if they went through bankruptcy. You said they could get it in the private marketplace. That isn't true. [Romney: "You're wrong."] I'm not wrong. [Romney: "Anybody can check the record on this."] You're right. People will look it up. [[Politifact and FactCheck agree Obama's wrong.]] For us to be competitive, we need to make smart choices.  Cutting investments in education will not help us keep up with China.  We need more teachers.  $5 trillion in tax cuts will not make us more competitive. Having a tax code that rewards companies for shipping jobs overseas will not keep us competitive.
57. Romney: "I don't want to go back to the policies of the past four years." 23 million still struggling to find a good jobs.  32 million on food stamps when you came to office, 47 million now.  When you came to office, we were almost $11 trillion in debt, now it's $16 trillion. it's critical to make America the most attractive place in the world. Bu the way, the federal government doesn't hire teachers. I was a governor. I love teachers.
58. Schieffer: "I think we can all agree we love teachers." Time to wrap up.
59. Obama: "You've heard three debates, months of campaigning, and way too many TV commercials." (Romney's social laugh.) Gov. Romney's ways are wrong and reckless. He wants to make sure the people at the top don't play by the same rules you do. I want to retrain our workers for the jobs of tomorrow. I want to reduce our deficit by cutting spending we don't need and by asking the wealthy to do a little bit more. After a decade of war, we need to do some nation-building here at home. We always bounce back because of our character. i will listen to your voices; I will fight for your families; I will work every single day to make sure we're the greatest nation on Earth.
60. Romney: "I'm optimistic about the future. I want to see peace. America has the opportunity to elect a leader that will secure peace and make sure this economy will grow. We have two paths. The president's path will mean further decline in take-home pay. I'll make sure we increase take-home pay. I promise 12 million jobs in my first term. Washington is broken. I know what it takes to get us back. We're blessed with a nation prosperous and free thanks to the greatest generation. It's our turn to take that torch. I'll lead you in an open and honest way. We'll work together to maintain America as the greatest hope for freedom.

61. Bob Schieffer leaves us with the wisdom from his mother. "Go vote. It makes you feel big and strong."  And it's over.

Bob Schieffer was great. Easily the best moderator of this season.
As Bret Baier recaps, we get shots of the Romneys and Obamas mingling.  Dang, I'd love to know what Obama just whispered in Tagg's ear.  Romney picks up one of his younger grandkids to meet the President.

Okay, let me digest this a minute...

Okay.  I said I learned 67 things and here they are the rest.

62. Seems pretty clear that Romney's game-plan was to act like he's the incumbent with a slight lead, and Obama debated as if he's the challenger slightly behind.  Obama did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm of his base, and Romney passed the "looking presidential" test.  His base will be there; he's still trying to get more of that 4-5% Undecided crowd.

63. Isolating the debate, I'd say Obama edged Romney.  More on offense, more aggressive, but it's a different Obama than we've seen before.  He's decided to be a little more MSNBC, just embrace the inner prick-ness of being the most powerful man in the world.  It's like Obama trying to appeal more to men, where he's behind, and Romney's trying to appeal more to women, where he's behind.  Interesting dichotomy we have going here.

64. We seem to live in a country where half the country thinks that if the other guy wins, America is doomed into a fiery pit of despair.  And by that I mean 24% from this side and 26% from that side.  And you know what, the vast majority of those people vote.

65. Romney's made more of a theme lately of working with Democrats and Republicans of getting things done.  Obama has emphasized continually how Republicans just obstruct everything he tries to do.  And sure they do.  But this is why Obama's not as good a President as Clinton.  Clinton could wage his battles with Newt Gingrich, do it with a smile, negotiate later, and then get things done.  Even when he was getting impeached.

66. Now when it comes to foreign policy, it's pretty clear they have a lot in common.  And some of that is too bad.  Nothing about the NDAA. Nothing about the "kill list." Nothing about the US president deciding he can order the death of anyone deemed a terrorist, including US citizens.

67. Oh well.  The RCP average as of this moment has Romney up +0.9%, so Election Day should be pretty exciting, and so should all the Morning-After lawsuits.

Mitt's Swing-State Momentum

Gallup and PPP can be interesting polls on their own, but the ones I am paying attention to more are the RealClearPolitics average and the 538 model.  When it comes to the general election, RCP has Romney at +0.5 and 538 has Obama at +1.1.  It's a close race.  Just three weeks ago, RCP had Obama +4.0 and 538 had Obama +4.9.

Here's a look at 12 swing states from RCP. The 2008 election results compared to where each state's polling averages are now.  As you can see, Obama's support has slipped in all 12 states.

State		Nov-08	Oct-12
1. Florida		Obama +2.8	Romney +2.5
2. N. Carolina		Obama +0.3	Romney +4.7
3. Virginia		Obama +6.3	Obama +0.8
4. Ohio		Obama +4.6	Obama +2.4
5. Colorado		Obama +9.0	Romney +0.7
6. Wisconsin		Obama +13.9	Obama +2.0
7. N. Hampshire		Obama +9.6	Obama +0.8
8. Missouri		McCain +0.1	Romney +7.7
9. Pennsylvania		Obama +10.3	Obama +5.0
10. Nevada		Obama +12.5	Obama +3.0
11. Iowa		Obama +9.5	Obama +2.3
12. Michigan		Obama +16.4	Obama +4.4

56 Things I Learned from the 2nd Presidential Debate

I caught parts of it live in a rowdy house, but then I sat down to watch the whole thing start to finish.

1.  I really dislike the worship of the "undecided voter" in October 2012.  Maybe 20, 30 years ago, several were undecided, but really, by now, 95% of the country's made up their mind.
2.  First question is a nervous college student asking how he'll be able to support himself after he graduates college.  Mitt Romney starts by thanking everyone.
3.  Mitt wants to keep Pell grants growing but wants to keep jobs growing. Says half of college graduates don't have a college-level job or job at all.  Brings up Biden's line about the middle class being crushed the past four years.
4. Barack Obama reassures the student his future is bright.  Says he wants to build on the 5 million private-sector jobs created in the last 30 months.  Says Romney wanted Detroit to go bankrupt, but he wants to bring back manufacturing. "I want everybody to get a great education." We've got to control our own energy.  We'll ask the wealthy to pay a little bit more.
5. Crowley intercedes, asks Romney about the long-term unemployed who need a job right now.  Romney points out his plan will bring back 12 million jobs in the next four years.  Romney looks right at the president to clarify the Detroit bankruptcy line.

6. Obama says what Romney says just isn't true. Says Romney's plan is that the folks at the top play by a different set of rules, ship jobs overseas and get tax breaks, painting Romney as Gordon Gekko.
7.  Crowley doesn't want to let Romney respond, move to next question.
8.  Second question is about the energy department says it's not their job to lower gas prices. Says oil's at its highest productivity in 16 years. Wants to open up new areas for drilling (what?!) and do it in an environmentally sound way.  Says Romney's plan to let the oil companies write the energy policies.
9.  Romney says let's look at the president's policies instead of the rhetoric. Says oil production is down 14% on federal land, says licenses were cut in half on federal land.  Rattles off all the different energy sources we can use.
10. Obama starts by saying "very little of what Gov. Romney said is true." Ooh, that shot of Obama's expression shows he really does not like Romney.  Tim Roth on Lie to Me would do a freeze-frame on it.  Says he wants to do more in the next four years.

11. Romney jumps up and says "But that's not what you did the last four years." Points out again Obama cut licenses, and Obama says "Not true." (Actually it IS true.) Romney says production is down 9% and Obama says "Not true."  Obama's plan seems to be to say anything Romney just said isn't true.
12. Romney laying out great specifics on his energy plan.
13. Crowley intercedes, asks Obama about the price of gas. $1.86 when he took office, $4 a gallon now. Obama says gas was cheap because the economy was hurting.  So... the economy's great now, but if he tries to lower gas prices, it'll create a new recession?
14. Obama says there are thousands in Iowa working wind jobs.
15. Romney wants to respond, but Crowley won't let him. He barrels forward anyway, says Obama misrepresented his position again.  He really shouldn't do that. But then Obama whines that he's used to being interrupted, so I guess it's a wash.

16. Third question asks about specific deductions Romney would get rid of if he gets his tax plan in place, particularly the mortgage-interest deduction, charitable donations, child tax credits, etc. The questioner forgets which other credits she wanted to say, and Obama says "You're doing great."
17. Romney says again middle-income taxpayers have been buried the past four years, with gas prices up, health-care costs down, wages down. Says under his plan, the top 5% taxpayers will still pay 60% of the taxes share as they do today.  He says taxpayers will have a dollar amount - $25,000 - of deductions they can use, be it on mortgage or child tax-credit or whatever they choose. I want to help the people in the middle class.  I will not under any circumstances lower the share of taxes the people on the high end pay. He's doing really good here.
18. Obama says he wants to get the middle class some relief. Says Republicans are holding 98% of taxpayers hostage to get their taxes raised so they can save the top 2%.  Says Romney has a different philosophy, says it's fair for the richer to have lower share.  He really has this level of disdain in his voice when attacking Romney.  Really reminds me of how McCain felt about Obama.
19. Romney repeats his plan, spells out more why lower rates help small businesses. Wants to balance the budget, champion small business.
20. Crowley asks Obama to address Romney's claim that the top 5% will not pay less. "Settled?" Obama laughs at the softball, repeats his line about how Romney wants to add $8 trillion to deficit via cutting taxes for the rich, raise defense spending, etc.  Oh, he brought up Big Bird. Let it go, Mr. President.  Now the figure switches to $7 trillion.

21. Romney wants to respond, but Crowley frames the follow-up, asks him if the math doesn't add up, will he revisit those tax cuts? Romney says he ran businesses and balanced the budgets, ran the Olympics and balanced the budget, ran massachusetts as best a minority-party governor can and balanced the budget all four years, wouldn't do it if the math didn't add up. What math doesn't add up? An extra $5 trillion to the deficit the past four years.
22. Romney says when Obama ran for president, he promised to cut the deficit in half, instead he's doubled it.  Says re-electing Obama would lead to the debt growing to $20 trillion, then Crowley interrupts Romney even though he's behind on time to get the next question in.
23. Fourth question is about equal wages for men and women. Obama talks about hsi single mother, about the successful women in his life, and yet the glass ceilings they hit. Said his first bill signed was Lily Ledbetter Act. "In every walk of life, we do not tolerate discrimination."
24. Romney points out he went out of his way to staff his Cabinet with women. My staff found "binders of women". He meant women's resumes, but that trended on Twitter, but I wouldn't have given it a second thought if I didn't know that.  Half of his staff in Massachusetts were female.
25. Obama needs to tell a joke or something. He's gone back and forth between anger and contempt most of the night. But an ENGAGED contempt.  Smile, dude.

26. Somewhere in there, we got to contraception. Ah, the war on women.
27. Fifth question is from "an undecided voter" but says the economy is Bush's fault; what is the difference between you and Bush?  Confetti just went off in MSNBC's control room.  Romney first wants to address the "totally wrong" potrayal Obama just gave.
28. Romney starts pointing out the differences. He'd be better on energy, better on trade. Better on getting the balanced budget. Says Obama was right when he criticized Bush for raising up half-a-trillion in deficit. Ah, but Obama doubled the deficit. Says he'll be better at championing small businesses while the GOP has spent too much time championing big business.
29. Split-screen finally caught a smile on Obama, when Romney says "well, I have a lot of problems with Obamacare."
30. Obama strolls up to the opportunity to blame Bush and looks very comfortable. Obama says Romney and Bush do have some differences. Bush never suggested we eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood. Says Romney's more extreme on social policy.

31. Sixth question is from Obama voter who's disillusioned. Why should he be re-elected? Obama lists some promises he kept, like cutting taxes, ending the war in Iraq, killing Bin Laden, passing tough Wall Street reforms. We saved the auto industry.  Pivots to attack Romney on his pledges, like raising no taxes, cutting Planned Parenthood. Says Obamacare and Romneycare are the same thing, and Romneycare's working well in Massachusetts.
32. Romney to the questioner. "I think you know better. I think you know better that the past four years haven't been as great as the President described." We just can't afford four more years like the last four years. Points out all of Obama's promises he hasn't kept. Obama said health-care costs would go down; they've gone up. Said he'd pass immigration reform in his first year; hasn't even filed it. Said he'd get unemployment to 5.4%; we're not. Said he'd cut the deficit in half; he doubled it. Romney's really strong in this answer.
33. Romney says Obama's great at describing his plans, but he has a record now, and he hasn't lived up to his promises. He's done. Crowley brings up the clock (Romney's down four minutes at this point.)
34. Seventh question asks "What do you plan to do with immigrants who don't have their green crad but are contributing to this country?" Romney says I want our immigrations sytem to be easier, make sure our legal system works.  Won't grant amnesty; will put into place employment verification system. Points out President has majority in both houses but did nothing with immigration.
35. Hey, at this angle I can see the clock counting down their time.

36. Obama: "We are a nation of immigrants." "But we also a nation of laws." I've done everything I can "on my own" and by trying to get Congress to help.
37. This past 10-15 minutes has been cordial and substantive. I'm sure that will end soon.
38. Obama points out Romney said he would have vetoed the Dream Act, said he favored self-deportation. Obama lies and says Romney called the Arizona Immigration law a model for the nation, then subtlely suggests that his daughter or the questioner's daughter could be subject to racial profiling when it comes to enforcing immigration laws. "I don't want to empower someone like that." Hey, I tried.
39. Crowley wants Romney to address self-deportation. Romney says he supports E-Verify, but not the Arizona Immigration law. Says Obama didn't answer Univision's question when he did nothing about immigration reform.  Romney tries to answer Obama's comment on China; Obama interrupts, but he gets to answer. Obama had said Romney's blind trust invests in Chinese companies so he's the last person who should "get tough" on China. Romney says to Obama, "Have you looked at your pension?" Obama says he's sure it's smaller than his, which was about what Newt's response was when he tried this on Mitt in the primaries. Says Obama's also invested in Chinese companies and Obama interrupts and says "We're off-topic here." Point for Romney.
40. Obama doubles down on the Arizona Immigration law. Obama blames Republicans for blocking him from getting anything done. Romney pledges he'll do it his first year.

41. Eighth question is about Libya. The State Department refused extra security on Benghazi before the attacks. Who is it that refused the extra security and why?
42. Obama talks first about our diplomats who serve all over the world. When he heard of attacks, he said beef up security, find out what happened, and then we'll hunt them down. Now Gov. Romney had different response. Says Romney put out press release making political points. When it comes to our national security, I mean what I say. I said we'd transition out of Afghanistan; we are. Says he's ultimately responsible for what happens overseas.
43. Romney underlines how Obama said the buck stops with him, feels for the families. Says there were many days that passed when they blamed the video. You have to ask yourself "Why didn't we know?" I find it more troubling that the next day, after four Americans were killed, Obama flew to Las Vegas for fundraiser. We've read the eyewitness accounts now, we know what happened. It was a terrorist attack. it calls the entire obama foreign policy into question. Look at what's happening Egypt and Syria, and now Libya. Iran is four years closer to a nuclear bomb.
44. Crowley points our Hillary said she takes full responsibility for Benghazi. Obama says she works for me; I'm responsible. Obama said the day after the attack, he stood in the Rose Garden and identified it as act of terror (not true; more on that later.)  A few days later, I greeted the four caskets and grieved with the families, and the suggestion that anyone on my team would play politics or mislead is offensive. That's not what we do. (Strong moment for Obama.  Even if Ambassador Rice did mislead.)
45. Romney questions his calling it an act of terror the day after it happened. It took the president 14 days to call it an act of terror. Crowley interjects  and says the President did call it an act of terror. (LIE!!!!) But applause from audience. Now Romney's fumbling but it's thanks to Crowley reinforcing Obama on his lie, and Obama interrupts and we move on.

46. Here's the thing. I get candidates are going to lie and mislead in debates. It just happens. But when the moderator decides to fact-check in real-time for the first time in a debate in front of the entire country, she'd better be right. (Crowley admitted her error about an hour after the debate was over.)
47. Ninth question is about banning assault weapons. Obama doesn't seem that interested in answering this one.
48. Romney says we need to change the culture of violence. We agree on the need for good schools. Let me mention another thing. Parents. We need moms and dads to raise their kids. Then brings up Fast & Furious. Thousands of automatic weapons were given to drug lords who killed their own people and Americans with them, and this occured under this administration. Obama implemented Executive Privilege to block us from learning everything about it.
49. Crowley wants him to be specific on his views on assault-weapons ban. He starts to answer and she interrupts to ask him if he'd re-ban those assault weapons that are legal now.
50.  Obama says Romney was for the assault-weapons ban before he was against it. (Ah, debating John Kerry finally pays off!) Talks about good schools and families. Crowley says we need to move along, but Obama says "This is important!" Crowley tries to move him to the next point, and Obama finally allows it.

51. Tenth question "Outsourcing of American jobs has hurt the US economy; how will get those job back?" Romney: "Great question. China's now the #1 manufacturing country in the world. It used to be us." We won't do trickle-down government. We'll make government attractive to entrepreneurs, to big business, to small business. China doesn't play by the rules by artificially lowering their currency. China has been a currency manipulator for years and years. Might put tariffs on China.
52. Obama says they agree on lowering corporate tax rates, but I want to remove loopholes that give businesses benefits from offshoring jobs. Says Romney wants to expand those loopholes. Then Obama's starting to get lost in currency manipulation.
53. Romney says we can compete with anyone in the world when the playing field's level. Once he gets on a roll, Obama interrupts to ask how much time we got, and Crowley lets him cut in and answer even though he's got four more minutes on time.
54. Romney: "Government does not create jobs!"

55. Eleventh question: "What do you believe is the biggest misconception about you, and please debunk this misconception." Romney is grateful for the opportunity, says the Obama campaign is more focussed on attacking him rather than what they'd do for the future. I care about 100% of the American people. I want 100% of the people to have a bright and prosperous future. I care about our kids. My passion probably flows from my belief in God, and I believe we are all children of the same God. I served as a missionary for my church, served as pastor (bishop) for ten years and worked with people and helped them through tough times, served on the Olympics, as governor got 100% of our kids insured and about 98% of adults. We don't have to settle for what we're going through. We don't have to settle for 23 million struggling to find a good job. We don't have to settle for $4 a gallon gasoline, we don't have to settle for 47 million on food stamps. I'll make sure we can reform Medicare and Social Security for the future. I've done these things.

Nailed it.

56. Obama's turn. "I believe in self-reliance and inidivdual initiative." I believe everyone should have a fair shot. There's a fundamentally different vision between us. I believe he's a good man. When he said behind closed doors that 47% of Americans are victims he's talking about seniors who paid into Social Security, veterans, students. I want to make sure the next generation has those opportunities.

Also nailed it.

And it's over. Obama had three more minutes than Romney and deftly waited until Romney couldn't respond to bring up the 47% quote.

Obama showed life, he showed passion, he showed he really doesn't like Romney. Smart move on use of the 47% quote, even though Romney's closing remarks made it a hollow attack, but Obama supporters had to have rejoiced over it. Obama showed strength, but his weakest points were when defending his own record. Didn't have good answers on his broken promises, completely ignored Fast & Furious.

Romney was good in his own right. He was presidential, strong, ready with the stats, and good when he prosecuted Obama's record. He didn't capitalize as well as he could have on Libya, but he's going to win some "morning after" points since Crowley admitted she was wrong. He also keeps using this Apology Tour line.

The Benghazi thing has bothered me ever since it happened, and I eat up what info I can find on it, and it's staggering to me how the Obama Administration is re-writing history on this in real-time.  It's such a sloppy cover-up and yet why? Why did they blame it on the video? Why did they insist it was spontaneous? Why did they throw the intelligence community under the bus? Why did Obama not call it a terrorist attack at the U.N.? Why did Ambassador Rice go on all the Sunday talk shows and blame the video? Why did Hillary "take responsibility" for it last night, and why did Obama wait until today to do the same?  I will be very very surprised (and impressed) if the investigation behind what happened with Benghazi wraps up before the election.

But I digress.

Romney wins first 2012 presidential debate

"I hope you don't mind I'm about to kick your butt, Mr. President."

DVR'd the debate and watched it after the kids were in bed, but based on what I saw on Twitter, apparently Romney beat Obama.

7:03 - I feel like I'm watching a movie where I've already read a spoiler-filled review.
7:04 - Obama's spending his 20th anniversary doing this debate. I feel for him.
7:06 - Obama: "The question is not where we've been but where are we going." Don't look at the past four years.
7:07 - Obama's wearing a blue tie and Romney a red, in case you weren't sure which one's which.

7:08 - Romney starts out with personal stories of people, leading to his five-part plan.
1. Energy independence
2. Open up more trade, esp. in Latin America
3. Make sure we have best schools in world.
4. Balanced budget.
5. Champion small business.

7:09 - There's a slight gravelly quality to Romney's voice tonight.
7:10 - "Economic patriotism." "Trickle-down government."
7:11 - Obama says he'll improve education. Hire 100,000 new teachers. Keep tuition low. Points out where he and Romney agree, corporate tax rates too high, we need to be less dependant on foreign oil. Says Romney wants $5 trillion tax cut with another $1 trillion from Bush tax cuts, plus $2 trillion in increased military spending.
7:12 - Romney: "High-income people will do fine whether you're president or I am." Talks about the suffering middle class. Health-care costs up $2500 a family.
7:13 - It is weird how Obama looks down almost the whole time when he's not speaking. Maybe because Romney's looking at Obama almost the whole time.
7:14 - Romney promises to bring Keystone pipeline through US. Likes coal (which Virginia voters should like). Pledges not to cut any taxes that would add to deficit.
7:15 - Obama says he cut taxes for middle class families by about $3600 a family.  (Really? Thought it was more like $1200.)  Says Romney won't be specific about what loopholes or deductions he'd cut.
7:16 - Lehrer peeps occasionally but Obama keeps going.  Obama says Romney would further burden middle class.

7:17 - Romney: "Virtually everything he described is inaccurate." "I will not under any circumstance raise taxes on middle-income families." He's energetic and all smiles delivering this.
7:18 - Obama wants to go back to Clinton tax rates for the $250,000 or more crowd. Says they have different definition of small business. "By your definition, Donald Trump is a small business."
7:21 - Romney rattles off all the different taxes people pay.  Obama nods and says "Mm" and keeps looking down.  Romney just name-dropped Bowles-Simpson.
7:22 - Obama: "Math, common sense, and history tell us it's not the right approach." Obama basically says Romney's approach is Bush, his approach is Clinton.
7:23 - Romney smacks down Obama for repeating the $5 trillion tax cut line.

7:24 - Lehrer tries again to get them to be specific about lowering the deficit.  Romney calls the debt a moral issue. Adding a trillion a year is not moral.  Rattles off specifics how he'd cut spending, encourage growth.
7:25 - Romney: "The president said he'd cut the deficit in half.  He doubled it."
7:26 - Obama: "When I entered office, two unpaid-for wars, upaid-for tax cuts, etc." Says he took $50 billion of waste out of Medicare, Medicaid.  We'll raise taxes $1 on the rich for every $2.50 of spending.
7:30 - Obama looks angry as Romney reminds him he kept the Bush tax cuts in place.
7:35 - Obama gets a little wonky here, getting lost in the weeds.
7:36 - Romney pegs Obama on investing $90 billion in green-energy companies that went bankrupt.  Says he has no idea what Obama's talking about when he says companies gets bonusses for shipping jobs overseas.

7:40 - Entitlements, says Lehrer. What are your differences on Social Security?
7:42 - Obama emphasizing the need to lower health care costs to help with Medicare.
7:43 - Romney: "Neither the president nor I would change Social Security for retireees or near-retirees." Talks about how more hospitals are refusing Medicare patients. "I want to take the $716 billion you've cut from Medicare and put it back."
7:44 - Obama says Romney will eventually turn Medicare into a voucher program, but says the problem is it won't keep up with health-care inflation costs.
7:47 - Romney says the younger ones can choose between traditional Medicare or a private plan. Their choice.

7:50 - Obama says AARP is supportive of his approach, says Romney's would weaken Medicare.
7:51 - Lehrer now asks if there's too much or too little regulation in government. Romney says you need regulations; you can't just have people starting banks out of their garage, but steers it to bad regulations like Dodd-Frank.
7:52 - Maybe it's because I follow some hyper people, but I don't think Obama's doing that bad.  He's just lower energy, seems like he thinks he's ahead and wants to run out the clock. But I just realized how bored I got during his latest answer.
7:53 - Romney: "That's just not the facts." Says Obama and Dodd-Frank just gave a blank check to five banks and called them "too big to fail."
7:56 - Steers back to Obamacare. Romney cites specific people's stories about rising costs.

8:06 - I forgot to take notes there. Very informative exchange, yet cordial, over their differences on Obamacare, reducing costs, etc.
8:07 - What was that backstage noise?
8:08 - Man, Obama's body language is terrible now. But then he says Romney's plan won't cover pre-existing conditions.
8:10 - Obama'a making his best points of the night pointing out how Romney's not being more specific. "Is he not telling us his plans because they're too good?"
8:11 - Lehrer doesn't want to let Romney respond to that, but Romney plows through. Says you can't get much done by saying "My way or the highway."
8:13 - Lehrer, "What are your differences in views on the federal government?"
8:15 - Obama: "The federal govt can't do it all, but it can make a difference."
8:16 - Romney: "The key to great schools is great teachers." Points out the Constitution and Dec of Independence on the walls behind them. Walks through them.  Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness. "Trickle-down govt" approach isn't working. 50% of college graduates can't find work.
8:17 - Fed govt role in education? Romney wants school choice. Obama plugs "race to the top" programs. Obama: "This is where budgets matter because in budgets you make choices."
8:21 - Obama gets a dig in on Romney saying one option from kids to pay for college is borrowing from their parents.

8:22 - Romney's first "zinger": "As President, you get your own airplane and your own house but you can't have your own facts" and then he starts countering some of the points Obama made.
8:23 - Obama has this grimace that says "Will someone shut this guy up?"
8:24 - Lehrer asks now about how to combat partisan gridlock. Romney points out when he was govnr of MA, he had 85% Democrats and he leanred how to get along. Said he'd sit down the day after he got elected with leaders of both parties to get things done. "Republicans and Democrats both love America."
8:26 - Obama: "I'll take ideas from anyone if it strengthens the middle class."
8:28 - Closing remarks. Obama says he promised he'd fight every single day for the American people, and he's kept that promise, and he promises he'll fight just as hard in his second term.
8:29 - Romney says he's running becuz he's concerned about the past four years. There's no question in my mind if the President is re-elected, you'll continue to see a middle-class squeeze. You'll see health-care premiums go up. If the President is re-elected, you'll see Medicare cut, and more hospitals turn medicare patients away.
8:30 - And we're done. Obama just said to Romney, "You won." The families meet each other. I actually love how they do this, meeting each other's kids and grandkids.  Obamas left after a minute, Romneys stay on stage, Mitt and Ann get a photo-op waving to some supporters.

I agree that Mitt Romney won tonight, but it wasn't that bad a stumble for the President. It's as if they're weeping and wailing to lower expectations for the second debate.

I just watched the Chris Matthews meltdown. Wow. I had to laugh by the end.

Just flipped to Wolf Blitzer and he has his "undecided focus group." Blech. And he points out the president had four more minutes of speaking time.

I'll check the fact check sites tomorrow.

RNC Winners & Losers

Now that the three days of conventioning are done for the Republicans, let's see what the aftermath holds.

WINNER - Women - Ann Romney, Condi Rice, Kelly Ayotte, Nikki Haley, Mia Love, Mary Fallin, Susana Martinez, Kerry Healy... Several women speakers for the GOP and most of them did a great job.  It just emphasized how weak the "war on women" mantra is.

LOSER - Vice-Presidential short-lists - Rob Portman and Tim Pawlenty, who'd been considered the top two candidates for the veep spot, came out with awkward jokes and speeches that easily eliminated them from the 2016.

WINNER - RNC Organizers - The three-day affair was well-produced, tightly-run, and as good an event as the GOP could have hoped for.

LOSER - RNC Rules Committee - Last-second rule changes to silence Ron Paul delegates will not soon be forgotten.  I know many Republicans were upset and felt hijacked when states that voted for Romney but the elected delegates were actually Paul supporters, but they can't be happy with the shocking power-grab that took place that first night.  I know in Utah, the election over national delegates is going to be much more closely contested.

WINNER - 2016 - If Romney loses the election, this past week has shown the Republicans have a deep diverse bench.  It's almost jarring that the 2011 freak-show was what it was when you consider who else is in the party.  Most of the women I mentioned above, plus Rubio, Christie, Cruz, and Ryan are in great positions.  Also, there's a little documentary out right now called 2016, the most successful right-leaning doc ever.

LOSER - 2012 - The Obama-Romney race has thus far been the most oddly disconnected gaffe-obsessed non-informative race in history.  And the mud's only going to get slung harder from here.  It's been dog-on-the-roof/Obama-eats-dog silliness.  I expect the Democrats to mount a large anti-LDS push soon. (Not the Democrats. An "independent SuperPAC.")

WINNER - CSPAN - Showing all the speeches in full is great for someone like me.  I could turn it on in the background while I was working.  No cutting way to talking-head pundits during actual speeches.

LOSER - MSNBC - Where to start?  They had a narrative they wanted to push, and they did it.  They did their best to paint the GOP as racist but they were the only ones to not show Artur Davis's speech.  Everything anyone said at the convention, you had an MSNBC pundit twisting like a pretzel factory worker that what they said was codified racism.  Chris Matthews has never looked angrier or frumpier.  Any Republican guest they could get on the show, they'd berate and shout at. (Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker handled the Sharpton-Schultz-Matthews gamut quite well.)  And yet, Chuck Todd let it slip that the Democrats wish they were as diverse as the Republicans.

WINNER - Mia Love - She was behind in last week's polls to overthrow Jim Matheson, but donations to her campaign skyrocketed immediately after her speech.  If she wins, she'll be the first black Republican congresswoman in history.  And she's a Mormon.

LOSER - Todd Akin - Right after he won the GOP nomination, he said the dumbest phrase of the year. "Legitimate rape"?  No one wants him to stay in the race.  Well, except he's tied with Claire McCaskill in the polls.  Wow, how bad a senator is Claire McCaskill?

WINNER - Clint Eastwood - Yeah, I said it.  I watched his speech.  He was employing a comic device, and some of it was funny.  Some of it may have made him wished he wasn't ad-libbing.  Republicans love him; some Democrats still do.  Some far-lefties just overplayed their hand. (Ebert called it "sad and pathetic." Really?)  Eastwood's name brought ratings, and hey, he has a movie opening next month, not to mention inspired a new internet meme.  You could call him a loser if you're approaching it from a potential future Oscar nominations angle.

LOSER - Chuck Norris - No longer the most famous actor willing to throw himself behind conservative candidates.  See also Jon Voight.

WINNER - Mike Huckabee - I think the last of the lingering wounds of the 2008 primary race were healed by Huck's speech.  And Huck deserves to have his radio show be the one that finally topples Rush Limbaugh.

LOSER - Sarah Palin - She wasn't invited to the convention, and then Fox News cancelled their interviews with her.  Her future is reality shows and punditry, but her political career looks dead.

WINNER - Ann Romney - Most potential first-lady speeches buoy their husbands.  I remember Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain in 2008, and Laura Bush, and Tipper Gore... I can't say Teresa Heinz Kerry did her husband any favors.  Ann did her job well, and if someone as likable as her loves Mitt, why can't we?

LOSER - Jon Huntsman Jr. - Big mistake by him to refuse to attend the convention and condemn the party.  He could have worked on changing from within, and he's quite skilled at giving speeches (much better than he is at debating).  I can tell you he's alienated a lot of Republicans in Utah, which is too bad. He would've made a good senator.

WINNER - Jeb Bush - The video with 41 and 43 was warmly received, but the former Florida governor came in person and he did great.  I could hear hearts breaking everywhere that he wasn't the Bush that ran for president in 2000.  I know I've thought about it more than once.

LOSER - Foreign policy - It was barely addressed over the past three days, and John McCain pumped us with fear that Syria and Iran need to be dealt with immediately.  Shoot, we could be in four wars this time next year?

WINNER - Paul Ryan on TV - Great speaker, photogenic, charming, knows how to deliver a phrase. His faded Obama poster line was great.  The rhetoric is there.

LOSER - Paul Ryan on paper - He voted for all those government-increasing bills he now decries.

WINNER - The theme of "are you better off than you were four years ago?"

LOSER - The way-overplayed theme of "we did build it!"

WINNER - Mitt's human side - Mitt Romney, you can tell, is an introvert and not blessed with that natural political ability of instantly connecting with large groups of people.  But having character witnesses speak for him revealed a man humble about the nice things he does.  It's hard not to be moved by the friendship he struck with the boy dying of cancer.

LOSER - Mitt's speech - It was no more specific than Obama's "hope and change" speech from 2008, but Obama's didn't have to be.  I think Mitt needed to do more with it, have something for people to be talking about through the weekend.  I'm not going to remember much beyond the story of his dad giving his mom a rose every day.

Huckabee's first caller a plant

Oops.

Perhaps well-times now that Rush Limbaugh's show has come under fire after Slutgate, Mike Huckabee launched his own radio show.  But the first caller to his show - "Mike from San Francisco" - was actually Mike McVay, a vice-president with the media company that owns Huckabee's show.

Huck's first guest was Mitt Romney, which I would have taken as a sign that hell had forzen over two years ago, but both men probably wouldn't mind seeing Rush go down a notch.

CNN Arizona Debate

"Okay, I'll endorse you again! Quit twisting my arm!"

Openings statements:

Why do they still have to introduce themselves?


Ron Paul calls himself the champion of liberty.

Rick Santorum says we've got troubles right here in River City.

Mitt Romney whistles the theme from The Andy Griffith Show.

Newt Gingrich will make sure no president ever bows to a Saudi king again.

FIRST QUESTION:

1. For the first time in 65 years, our debt exceeds our GDP; what will you do about it?

SANTORUM - I'll cut $5 trillion in 5 years. I have experience in cutting entitlements. When I was born, the budgets were at low levels now they're at high levels. Cut welfare, freeze it, give it to the states. Poverty is not a disability.

ROMNEY - Rick voted to raise the debt ceiling five times, but to the question, I've been in business where you have to balance the budget or you go out of business. I've balanced budget in business, in the Olympics and in Massachusetts.

SANTORUM - You use Occupy Wall Street rhetoric.

ROMNEY - I have a better record than you.

GINGRICH - As Speaker, I balanced the budget for four straight years. Going to the Founding Fathers, Hamilton said you have to have jobs to generate growth. We need a better energy policy.

Romney always looks directly at whoever's speaking so if they happen to glance at him, they'll meet his eyes.

(John King: Ron Paul, you called Santorum a "fake" in one of your ads. Why?)

PAUL - Because he's a fake. (Laughter/applause.)

SANTORUM - I'm real.

PAUL - Congratulations. When people run for office, they run as fiscal conservatives. When they get there, they do something different, then they say, "Oh I want to repeal that!" You lose credibility.

SANTORUM - You serve in one of the most conservative districts in Texas; it was easy for you. I served in Pennsylvania.

PAUL - You know what this is? The world's tiniest violin.

(John King: Mitt, you called yourself "severely" conservative. Defend yourself.)

ROMNEY - I was a pro-life governor. I stood up for the Catholic church. I saved the Olympics. I balanced the budget as a businessman. You can't be anything but a fiscal conservative to be a successful businessman.

GINGRICH - Romney moved in the right direction in getting closer to supply-side economics, but frankly not cutting more capital gains taxes would be disastrous. I want to fundamentally change everything, making me kind of like Ron Paul. Secure the border, balance the budget.

(John King: Earmarks are a sliver of the budget but Tea Party activists think it's a big deal.)

SANTORUM - Romney asked for earmarks for the Olympic Games. I fought against earmarks once I saw there was abuse in the system. I'm like Jim DeMint, except he's an earmarker.

ROMNEY - Whatever. Ban earmarks. Rick voted for the Bridge to Nowhere. In the history of the Olympics, the Fed Govt has always taken care of transportation and security, so that's what we asked for.

SANTORUM - You would've been for earmarks. I'd like the president to have a line-item veto. ANd hey, Paul, is a huge earmarker. (Some audience grumbles.) Hey, I'm not criticizing...

GINGRICH - Olympics earmarks were appropriate but how can Mitt criticize Rick for doing the same thing because he thinks his earmarks were right and Rick's were wrong?

PAUL - All of Congress is screwed up; that's the problem. If you don't like the spending bill, vote against the bill.

(John King: Question on auto bailouts.)

SANTORUM - I've been on the consistant side against bailouts. Romney was not.

ROMNEY - Nice try, but let's look at the facts. In 2008, Bush was still in office. The 3 auto-heads flew on their jet planes to Congress and asked for $50 billion bailout. I found that inappropriate. I said they should go through managed bankruptcy. (The fact that this gets applause shows the audience here is pro-Mitt.) The head of the UAW said the auto industry would disappear.

SANTORUM - Wall Street got bailed out and you supported that.

GINGRICH - The auto bailout was just Obama paying off the UAW.

PAUL - There aren't good bailouts and bad bailouts. They're all bad. Calling the auto bailout a success is like saying if you robbed a bank and got away with it, you're a success.

John King then asks about birth control and it gets boos from the audience. Newt then says no one in the elite media asked Barack Obama in 2008 why he supported "legallizing infanticide." Mitt says no administration in history has been more opposed to religious freedom. (Um, James Buchanan, anyone?) Rick is against birth control, but gives a great answer, he says the difference between him and the left is that just because he's talking about something doesn't mean he wants a government program to fix it. (Applause!) But then he also talks about contraception encouragin morality. Ron says contraception cannot be blamed for the immorality of a nation. Mitt then cites all the stats on how being born out of wedlock puts you at a disadvantage.

GINGRICH - As Ron Paul has been saying for a generation, when you have government enter health care, you're on the road toward tyranny, whether it's Obamacare or Romneycare, any cetralized government approach to health care takes aware our freedom.

PAUL - If you vote for Planned Parenthood as Rick has, you voted for birth control pills. Planned Parenthood should get nothing.

SANTORUM - Well, I did vote for appropriation bills that had stuff in it I didn't like, but to counter I also pushed for abstinence programs.

PAUL - That costs money too. I'd be against this.

Starting to feel bad for Rick Santorum. This crowd is clearly pro-Romney and pro-Paul, and the two are doing some good tag-teamming on Rick.

Romney points our Rick endorsed him in 2008, also points out Rick endorsed Arlen Specter, the 60th vote for Obamacare.

It shifts to immigration. Gingrich pimps his double-fence border idea. We get a shot of Callista Gingrich sitting next to Rick Perry. Where's Mrs. Perry? "Danger! Danger!"

Santorum says we need to use E-Verify (a federal program).

John King asks them to use one word to describe themselves.

PAUL - "Consistant."

SANTORUM - "Courage."

ROMNEY - "Resolute."

GINGRICH - "Cheerful." (Laughs.)

We now go to foreign policy. Romney slams Obama, points out Syria's a mess. King asks about women in combat. Gingrich and Santorum give artful, dodgy answers, but Paul vehemently comes out against war. He doesn't want women to die in combat, he doesn't want men to die in combat.

We slide now to the question of Iran, and Gingrich said this is one of the times he's for pre-emption, if Israel belived Iran was about to bomb them, he'd be okay with them striking first. Which was pretty much the rationale for going to Iraq.

I am honestly starting to lose interest now.

They shift back to Syria, and Santorum passionately pleads that if Obama's re-elected, it will be a cataclysmic doomsday World War III apocalypse started by the nuclear Iran and Syria. Gingrich says we need to make the US the biggest supplier of oil in the world. We need to have our allies covert destroy the regimes over there. Romney says he agrees with both of them, but he says it's great that Syria's leader is in trouble. We should encourage Saudi Arabia and Turkey to provide Assad's enemies weapons.

PAUL - I've tried the moral argument and the Constitutional argument, let's try the financial argument. We're spending trillions being bogged down in the Middle East. We don't have the money. Remember, the Soviets left Afghanistan because they were bankrupt.

John King brings up No Child Left Behind, and Santorum says yeah, Bush wanted it and I voted for it, and I regret it. (Boos.) Hey, politics is a team sport. I believe the federal government should get out of the education business, and the state government. Send it to local communities. (Slow down, dude.)

Final question. What's the misconcpetion about you?

PAUL - That I can't win. I clearly can.

GINGRICH - I wish people understood the amount of work it actually took to balance the budget and get welfare reform.

ROMNEY - Gives his usual summation speech, doesn't answer the question.

SANTORUM - Takes Mitt's lead, pleads for people to vote for him becuz he can do a lot with a little, doesn't really answer the "misconception" question either.

I didn't feel like there was a clear winner here, if you're talking momentum changer. Ron Paul was his usual twinkly-eyed self, only lost the crowd on foreign policy. I don't think he or Mitt Romney ever directly criticized each other. Romney showed no fear in going after others, and I think he did enough here to solidify Arizona and probably squeak out Michigan. All the polls right now show that no one is going to dominate Super Tuesday. Newt should win Georgia, Rick should win Pennsylvania, but Santorum, by not hitting a home-run in the debate, should slip. Therefore I'd have to say Romney was the winner and Santorum the loser.

Mitt crushes Newt in Florida

With 49% of the votes counted in Florida, Mitt Romney has 48% of the vote, Newt Gingrich has 31%, Rick Santorum has 13%, and Ron Paul has 7%.

It has to be sweet for Mitt to win by a wider margin over newt than Gingrich did in South Carolina.

Isn't Florida the oldest state in the nation?  I thought the Ron Paul rEVOLution would do better there.  Then again, his biggest constituents are people under 30.