ROMNEY VS. HUNTSMAN - It's not just that they're both Mormon, and both and rich-and-famous fathers. It's that if you lined up all the Republican candidates from left to right on how they really felt deep inside about the different issues, Huntsman and Romney would be the first two on the left. Still right of center compared to the rest of the country, but it's Republican delegates they have to court first, and Romeny's willing to say whatever to convince them he's really farther down the row.
BACHMANN VS. PALIN - It's not just that they're both women, and both have interesting family dynamics. It's that both are considered Tea party queens. Both have proven to be gaffe-prone and have enthusiastic supporters willing to go into Wikipedia and change history because their candidate said soemthing was so. If Sarah gets in, how do they not cancel each other out? It's not just because they're women; they have a lot in common. It reminds me of how Biden & Dodd cancelled each other out in 2008.
PAWLENTY VS. PERRY - The early front-runner for the "Anyone But Mitt" crowd was T-Paw, but after he backed down in the debate, the new favorite is secession-flirter Rick Perry. The Texas governor can boast of the economic health of his state compared to the rest of the union, and his toothy grin has steel behind it. I say if Perry really gets in, Pawlenty's finished.
GINGRICH VS. GINGRICH - You did it to yourself, Newt. Don't waste any more money and drop out of the race now.
EVERYONE ELSE - Ron Paul will always have a loyal following, but he isn't going to win. Herman Cain would need a really impressive debate performance or two to give his campaign a jump-start. Rick Santorum should quit while he's behind. I feel like I'm forgetting someone... Rudy Guiliani? Even if he gets in, he won't take any states. He'd be there to block someone else. Gary Johnson? Over before it started.
Yeah, I think that's it. I can see Bachmann staying strong for a while, but if Palin and Perry get in, I see Perry taking the #2 spot behind Romney.
And if I haven't said it somewhere else before, I'll say it here. If Mitt Romney does get the nomination, his VP pick will be Marco Rubio.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Monday, June 13, 2011
GOP New Hampshire Debate
I watched the debate, and then I watched pieces again, and I'd still like to read a transcript to see if there was some substance I missed. The platform did not allow for much. When there are seven candidates, and CNN's John King wants all of their answers in 30 second bits, well, how can you really go into policy with that? King might as well have said, "We are only seeking soundbites, catch-phrases, and plattitudes. Let's get started."
How'd they do?
7. RICK SANTORUM - Of all the candidates, he's the one who has to answer the question, "Why are you here again?" And he didn't.
6. HERMAN CAIN - I'd read he was a bright spot in the last GOP debate, but he struck me more as a guy who had some talking points and got lost when he had to veer from them.
5. NEWT GINGRICH - Newt's a good talking-head on cable, but in the debate, did he really listen to some of his answers? At one point he supported the return of McCarthyism when it comes to Muslims, and at another point he made it sound like we'd be living like the Jetsons right now if the "private sector" ran NASA instead of the government.
4. TIM PAWLENTY - He had his moments, but this night will most be remembered for him shying away from Mitt Romney when confronted about his coining of the new phrase "Obamneycare." Gee, it's a neat word but he came off as an internet troll who just had his identity discovered by the celebrity he's been bad-mouthing.
3. RON PAUL - Paul is not afraid to answer any question, and he never sounds like he's trying to be careful about how he answers it. That's why, whether I agree with him or not, I know I'm not going to wince from the pain of watching him tiptoe or tap-dance around an answer the way most other inevitably will. On Afghanistan: "Our national security is not enhanced by our presense there."
But half of the stuff he wants to do, you just know he will never get done. I think he's a symbolic candidate, one where he hopes that some of his ideas might catch hold in the psyche and imagination of a candidate who actually has a chance. I'm sure he'd love to talk Romney's ear off about the Federal Reserve.
2. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Low expectations for her, and she passed them. Don't take that as "She was tremendous!" but she seemed comfortable, she has a backstory that's interesting. (23 foster kids?) She essentially made the case that a Sarah Palin candidacy is unnecessary.
1. MITT ROMNEY - He had the polish of a co-host. Welcome to my debate stage, fellas, can I get you something to drink? He had his own stumbles, but he's the front-runner and no one laid a finger on him.
Now, Hillary Clinton won the first six or eight debates she had with Obama and company, so in the long run, this debate won't mean much. I will say it's nice to have a Forbes-Keyes-Bauer-free stage. I look forward to seeing varied formats in the future. It'll be interesting to see Jon Huntsman join, and what might happen if Palin actually joins.
How'd they do?
7. RICK SANTORUM - Of all the candidates, he's the one who has to answer the question, "Why are you here again?" And he didn't.
6. HERMAN CAIN - I'd read he was a bright spot in the last GOP debate, but he struck me more as a guy who had some talking points and got lost when he had to veer from them.
5. NEWT GINGRICH - Newt's a good talking-head on cable, but in the debate, did he really listen to some of his answers? At one point he supported the return of McCarthyism when it comes to Muslims, and at another point he made it sound like we'd be living like the Jetsons right now if the "private sector" ran NASA instead of the government.
4. TIM PAWLENTY - He had his moments, but this night will most be remembered for him shying away from Mitt Romney when confronted about his coining of the new phrase "Obamneycare." Gee, it's a neat word but he came off as an internet troll who just had his identity discovered by the celebrity he's been bad-mouthing.
3. RON PAUL - Paul is not afraid to answer any question, and he never sounds like he's trying to be careful about how he answers it. That's why, whether I agree with him or not, I know I'm not going to wince from the pain of watching him tiptoe or tap-dance around an answer the way most other inevitably will. On Afghanistan: "Our national security is not enhanced by our presense there."
But half of the stuff he wants to do, you just know he will never get done. I think he's a symbolic candidate, one where he hopes that some of his ideas might catch hold in the psyche and imagination of a candidate who actually has a chance. I'm sure he'd love to talk Romney's ear off about the Federal Reserve.
2. MICHELLE BACHMANN - Low expectations for her, and she passed them. Don't take that as "She was tremendous!" but she seemed comfortable, she has a backstory that's interesting. (23 foster kids?) She essentially made the case that a Sarah Palin candidacy is unnecessary.
1. MITT ROMNEY - He had the polish of a co-host. Welcome to my debate stage, fellas, can I get you something to drink? He had his own stumbles, but he's the front-runner and no one laid a finger on him.
Now, Hillary Clinton won the first six or eight debates she had with Obama and company, so in the long run, this debate won't mean much. I will say it's nice to have a Forbes-Keyes-Bauer-free stage. I look forward to seeing varied formats in the future. It'll be interesting to see Jon Huntsman join, and what might happen if Palin actually joins.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Hopefuls
As it stands June 5.
1. (1) Mitt Romney - 29.7%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 19.2%
3. (3) Jon Huntsman - 15.5%
4. (6) Sarah Palin - 7.0%
5. (-) Rick Perry - 5.5%
6. (7) Michelle Bachmann - 5.5%
7. (5) Herman Cain - 4.8%
8. (-) Chris Christie - 3.0%
9. (-) Rudy Giuliani - 2.0%
10. (10) Ron Paul - 1.9%
Rising: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Chris Christie
Falling: Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mitch Daniels
Since Mitch Daniels dropped out, there seems to be a desperation among certain GOP players to get someone else in. Rick Perry, Chris Christie and Rudy Giulani have all said they're not running, but the field is perceived as weak enough that maybe some think one of these guys could waltz in and save the day. (Does no one remember Rudy's 2008 campaign?)
But of those that are there, Romney's hold to front-runner status is getting a little tighter, and with this Sarah Palin documentary debuting in Iowa later this month, it's raising speculation she might actually run.
I look at InTrade more than most because this is people putting their money where their mouth is. The one GOP debate did nothing for any participant except Herman Cain. It didn't lose Tim Pawlenty points, but it signalled to voters they can go ahead and keep ignoring Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will always have his sliver of popularity.
I look at Iowa and think Palin has a shot of taking it. Iowa spurned Romney for Huckabee last time after Huck played up the religion angle, and I don't see Iowans being much warmer toward him this time around. Hutsman's already signalled he plays to skip it, and Pawlenty, well, maybe.
1. (1) Mitt Romney - 29.7%
2. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 19.2%
3. (3) Jon Huntsman - 15.5%
4. (6) Sarah Palin - 7.0%
5. (-) Rick Perry - 5.5%
6. (7) Michelle Bachmann - 5.5%
7. (5) Herman Cain - 4.8%
8. (-) Chris Christie - 3.0%
9. (-) Rudy Giuliani - 2.0%
10. (10) Ron Paul - 1.9%
Rising: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Chris Christie
Falling: Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mitch Daniels
Since Mitch Daniels dropped out, there seems to be a desperation among certain GOP players to get someone else in. Rick Perry, Chris Christie and Rudy Giulani have all said they're not running, but the field is perceived as weak enough that maybe some think one of these guys could waltz in and save the day. (Does no one remember Rudy's 2008 campaign?)
But of those that are there, Romney's hold to front-runner status is getting a little tighter, and with this Sarah Palin documentary debuting in Iowa later this month, it's raising speculation she might actually run.
I look at InTrade more than most because this is people putting their money where their mouth is. The one GOP debate did nothing for any participant except Herman Cain. It didn't lose Tim Pawlenty points, but it signalled to voters they can go ahead and keep ignoring Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will always have his sliver of popularity.
I look at Iowa and think Palin has a shot of taking it. Iowa spurned Romney for Huckabee last time after Huck played up the religion angle, and I don't see Iowans being much warmer toward him this time around. Hutsman's already signalled he plays to skip it, and Pawlenty, well, maybe.
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