Monday, December 5, 2011

GOP InTrade Watch - 12/5/11

As of December 5.

1. (1) - Mitt Romney - 47%
2. (2) - Newt Gingrich - 30.2%
3. (3) - Jon Huntsman - 7.7%
4. (4) - Ron Paul - 7%
5. (6) - Rick Perry - 2.8%
6. (7) - Michele Bachmann - 2.5%
7. (8) - Rick Santorum - 1.4%
8. (5) - Herman Cain - .2%



The moneychangers still like Romney but not as much as they used to.

The field's changed since Cain dropped out. Romney has been severely damaged by Gingrich's ascent. Romney's at his lowest since October 1. Gingrich was actually up to 37% a few days ago, but his enemies are starting to get louder (George Will disembowelled him on ABC's This Week). Huntsman and Paul are hovering. Paul's waiting for an Iowa boost, and Huntsman for a New Hampshire boost if Newt would just hurry up and implode already.

In watching bits and pieces of Fox News the past week or so, and hearing parts of Rush driving to and from work, it seems they really don't want Romney, but they're not thrilled about Gingrich either. I think Rush wants Perry or Bachmann or Santorum to get the nomination, but Gingrich would be his fourth choice. And Fox News is about the same.

Heck, the other day Glenn Beck said if one of these candidates could turn out to be the next George Washington, it'd be Rick Santorum. #facepalm

One Sunday talking-head (can't remember who at this moment) said, in defending Perry, that we put too much emphasis on the debates.  I don't think so.  Voters are very cognizant of the importance of debates.  It can underline strengths and expose weaknesses.  (Look at how poorly Perry and Cain have done at foreign policy questions.)  They remember the Barack Obama / John McCain debates of 2008. Obama was fresh, new and energized; McCain was the old grump who wouldn't even look at "that one."  They remember the George W. Bush / Al Gore debates of 2000, too.  Bush was the guy who could relate to folks; Gore was the robot who couldn't stop sighing into the microphone.

So glad we're finally down to seven candidates.  Bring on the next debate!

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