Wednesday, July 6, 2011

InTrade Watch on GOP 2012 Hopeful

1. (1) Mitt Romney - 34.9%
2. (6) Michelle Bachmann - 17.7%
3. (5) Rick Perry - 14.2%
4. (2) Tim Pawlenty - 9%
5. (3) Jon Huntsman - 6.7%
6. (4) Sarah Palin - 5.3%
7. (10)Ron Paul - 2.2%
8. (-) Newt Gingrich - 2%
9. (8) Chris Christie - 1.8%
10. (9) Rudy Guiliani - 1.7%

Rising: Romney, Bachmann, Perry
Falling: Pawlenty, Huntsman, Cain

We've had the first big debate, a couple more candidates have officially announced, and a couple more are still flirting with the idea. Of those officially in, Romney and Bachmann are making July a two-person race. Cain and Santorum aren't in the top ten. You'd never know from the media that Gary Johnson and Thad McCotter are also running for president.

Perry, Palin, Christie and Guiliani still are not in the race, and most of them likely won't ever be, but they still poll better than half the field. Huntsman's seen as too moderate by Republicans and too reasonable by Democrats to get the nomination. My guess is Pawlenty can't wait for the next debate to hit Romney double-hard with anything he can think of in order to erase the memory of him backing down in the last debate.

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