Friday, August 26, 2011

Rick Perry leads in South Carolina

Didn't take long to find that Magellan did poll South Carolina too, and Texas governor Rick Perry has a commanding lead.

PERRY 31%
ROMNEY 20%
BACHMANN 14%
CAIN 9%
GINGRICH 5%
PAUL 4%
SANTORUM 2%
HUNTSMAN 2%
OTHER/UNDECIDED - 13%

Delving a little deeper, Perry leads Romney 36-16 among those who identify themselves as "Social Conservatives". He has a bigger lead with males (35-16) than females (27-24).

Then there's the "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate?" question.

Favorable/Unfavorable
Perry - 61% / 17%
Bachmann - 58% / 27%
Romney - 55% / 31%
Cain - 49% / 17%
Gingrich - 35% / 53%
Paul - 28% / 48%
Santorum - 26% / 32%
Huntsman - 9% / 44%

Suddenly Iowa seems a lot more important. If Romney doesn't plan to compete there, he has to be secretly hoping that Michelle Bachmann can win it. But if Perry wins Iowa, I still expect Romney to win New Hampshire, then Perry wins South Carolina, that's serious momentum. That's eaxctly the route Bush took to beat McCain in 2000. Romney has to be glad Nevada's between New Hampshire and South Carolina this year. Haven't seen anything new, but he did great in Nevada in 2008.

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