Looking forward to see a South Carolina poll. After all, when it come to elections we only have three states in this fine country of ours.
The latest polls from Magellan Strategies show that Mitt Romney still has a convincing lead in New Hampshire, and newbie Rick Perry has a narrow lead on Michelle Bachmann in Iowa.
New Hampshire, June 14-15:
Mitt Romney - 42%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Ron Paul - 10%
Sarah Palin - 7%
Rudy Giuliani - 6%
Tim Pawlenty - 5%
Herman Cain - 4%
Newt Gingrich - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 3%
Rick Santorum - 2%
New Hampshire, August 15-16:
Mitt Romney - 36% (-6)
Rick Perry - 18% (+18)
Ron Paul - 14% (+4)
Michele Bachmann - 10% (+0)
Herman Cain - 3% (-1)
Jon Huntsman - 3%
Newt Gingrich - 2% (-1)
Rick Santorum - 1% (-1)
Iowa, July 10-11:
Michele Bachmann - 29%
Mitt Romney - 16%
Tim Pawlenty - 8%
Herman Cain - 8%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Ron Paul - 5%
Rick Santorum - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 0%
Iowa, August 22-23:
Rick Perry - 24% (+24)
Michele Bachmann - 22% (-7)
Mitt Romney - 19% (+3)
Ron Paul - 9% (+4)
Herman Cain - 6% (-2)
Newt Gingrich - 4% (-1)
Rick Santorum - 4% (+1)
Jon Huntsman - 1% (+1)
Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all need a miracle at the next debate to justify staying in the race. And Michelle Bachmann has no room to falter. But I expect all the other candidates to come out swinging at Romney and Perry.
It's interesting to see that Romney, who's long said he's not competing in Iowa, is a close third. If he decided to put in a little effort and somehow won Iowa, the race would be over.
3 comments:
Um...could you unpack the fairly ambiguous and pregnant with meaning "somehow won Iowa" comment? Isn't that kind of like saying, "If McCain had somehow won the presidency, he'd be president right now?"
Well, yeah, but it kind of dodges any kind of analysis.
He's in third and isn't putting in effort in that state, so for him to actually win Iowa, he'd need to change his approach and strategy. And it's doable; he's only 5% back.
I wonder if it's even worth it in Iowa...
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